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Energy Management Agents: Understanding the Energy Consumer

Energy Management Agents: Understanding the Energy Consumer

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Presentation Outline

The Energy Management Agent (EMA) Role in the evolving electricity market Current state Understanding the energy customer

The home Energy storage Occupants behavior Classifying household energy consumption

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The Energy Box: Comparing Locally Automated Control Strategies of Residential Electricity Consumption under Uncertainty

Dan Livengood, ESD PhD 2011 Advisors: Richard Larson, Steve Graves, Jim Kirtley, Steve Connors

Zonal and Occupancy-Moderation for Residential Space-Conditioning under Demand-Driven Electricity Pricing

Woei Ling Leow, ESD PhD 2012 Advisors: Richard Larson, Jim Kirtley, Roy Welsch, Steve Connors

Processor dedicated to unobtrusively providing continuous monitoring and optimized control of energy consumption

Local hardware or remotely hosted software Isolated or connected Drop in Control of energy using devices, as well as generation

Load shifting and demand management Constantly optimized control, independent of user

Machine learning Zonal control Occupancy prediction

Processor dedicated to unobtrusively providing continuous monitoring and optimized control of energy consumption

Local hardware or remotely hosted software Isolated or connected Drop in Control of energy using devices, as well as generation

Load shifting and demand management Constantly optimized control, independent of user

Machine learning Zonal control Occupancy prediction

Legacy Supply follows demand, static pricing

Coordinate power generation and distribution to optimally match demand Build capacity to match peak demands

Create secondary market for negawatts to reduce peaking load for more efficient generation

Consumers manually optimize between cost and comfort

Technology replaces active manual intervention Must integrate with human behavior and existing infrastructure

In order to act effectively as agent, the EMA must understand:

Thermal properties of the home Energy storage options Human behavior

Comfort Occupancy patterns and lifestyle

Through data and machine learning techniques, EMAs can classify energy customers behavior, adding nuance to the optimization strategy

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EMA Assumptions

Environmental inputs (weather, RTP)

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Heating Zones

Zone states are related by transfer functions idences and modeled by the EMA learned

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Regression Modeling

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Autoregression

c is a constant is the constant parameter vector is gaussian white noise of mean 0 Each state depends on arbitrarily many previous states, providing memory

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Autoregression Example

AR(p) is an autoregressive series that looks p time steps back AR(0) is just white noise AR(1) is an integration if 0<<1, blows up if >1, and oscillates if <0 In general, AR(p) can oscillate at period p or less if the coefficients have different signs, and blows up if the roots of the characteristic polynomial have a magnitude greater than 1

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Autoregression Modeling

Can be solved with a shifted feature vector Feature dimensionality as length(x)p Error drops off quickly, then flattens

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Autoregression Summary

Memory makes sense for a thermal system

Modeling air mixing and heating furniture

as easily

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Energy Storage

Thermal mass

Shiftable loads Batteries All storage requires time-variance in the cost of fuel, because they can all be seen as timeshifting loads

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Thermal Mass

Heating zones

incl. appliances like refrigerators, hot water heaters, etc.

Slow to store Leaky Comfort could be an issue Automatically optimized by the MPC

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Batteries

E is the energy going from / to the battery

s is the storage state is the decay rate is the charging / discharging efficiency

The Intertemporal Utility of Demand and Price-Elasticity, Roozbehani et al.

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Shiftable Loads

Incorporate the disutility p(k) associated with backlogging demand into the cost function

Example shiftable appliances:

Dishwasher

Dryer

Computer

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Future Work

Integration of thermal and electrical systems

Ex: refrigerator heats the surrounding room, cools its interior Hot water heaters demand and temperature could fit occupancy and comfort models

Statespace analysis of the regression models stability Modeling of solar thermal systems, radiant heating

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How to quantify the comfort preferences of an end user? How to predict occupancy at a given time? How to classify types of behavior patterns?

Overall goal of EMA is to minimize some cost function across time:

Livengood, Dan. The Energy Box: Comparing Locally Automated Control Strategies of Residential Electricity Consumption under Uncertainty. 2011.

Overall goal of EMA is to minimize some cost function across time:

Livengood, Dan. The Energy Box: Comparing Locally Automated Control Strategies of Residential Electricity Consumption under Uncertainty. 2011.

mcool = 1 mwarm = 2

$

kcool

$

kwarm

Livengood, Dan. The Energy Box: Comparing Locally Automated Control Strategies of Residential Electricity Consumption under Uncertainty. 2011.

Option 1: Nave occupancy learning (frequency counter) Robust in the presence of noisy data

p(7am) = 0.5

p(7am) = 0.15

p(7am) = 0.35

Leow, Woei Ling. Zonal and Occupancy-Moderation for Residential Space-Conditioning under Demand-Driven Electricity Pricing. 2012.

Option 2: Markov model At a given hour of the day, calculate the likelihood of an occupants next location depending on his current location

p= 0.6

p=0.1

P=0.3 p=0.2

p=0.1

p= 0.5

p=0.4

p= 0.7

Leow, Woei Ling. Zonal and Occupancy-Moderation for Residential Space-Conditioning under Demand-Driven Electricity Pricing. 2012.

P=0.1

Human behavior is highly variable:

Between people Between days for a given person

In many sustainability problems related to human behavior, methods to classify people or behavior types are useful

Expectation-Maximization (E-M) Algorithm

Reduces complexity by introducing latent variables Ex: mixture model where each data point has a latent variable: its label

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-means_clustering

Data set D with two parts:

Observed data X Latent data Z

p(D|) = p(X,Z|)

Marginal likelihood of X

p(X|) =

p(X,z|)

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of |X Find parameter that maximizes marginal log-likelihood

= arg max log[p(X|)]

1. Initialize (0) to a random value, or a best guess 2. For t = 1,2,, repeat:

a) Expectation step b) Maximization step

| (t) - (t-1) | < | log[p(X|)](t) -log[p(X|)](t-1) | <

Assume the current parameter values, (t-1), are correct Use (t-1) to compute q(t)(Z), the posterior distribution of Z at t:

q(t)(Z) = p(Z|X; (t-1))

Find a new value of (t) to be used at the next iteration. The new value should maximize the expectation of the complete log-likelihood with respect to q(t)

(t) = arg max Eq(t)( log p(X,Z|) ) = arg max

(t) q (z) log p(X,z|)

Convergence to a global maximum is not guaranteed in non-convex space. There are ways to address this:

Random restart Simulated annealing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hill_climbing

Goal: to run Monte Carlo simulations of Energy Box zonal space conditioning given various stochastic inputs

Climate, electricity pricing, local generation, etc.

Randomness and similarity of occupancy Category of lifestyle (stay-at-home or worker)

Leow, Woei Ling. Zonal and Occupancy-Moderation for Residential Space-Conditioning under Demand-Driven Electricity Pricing. 2012.

American Time Use Survey

12,000 respondents surveyed Ex: food and drink preparation

shopping = out of house sleeping = in bedroom

Final proxy data set includes roughly 100,000 total occupancy patterns

Leow, Woei Ling. Zonal and Occupancy-Moderation for Residential Space-Conditioning under Demand-Driven Electricity Pricing. 2012.

Occupancy vectors v {0,1,K}N

K: number of zones N: number of time periods (24 per day)

Example

v = [1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 1 1] 0: out of house 1: bedroom 2: living room or dining room

Occupancy vectors must be classified into categories of lifestyle (e.g., the above is a worker)

Leow, Woei Ling. Zonal and Occupancy-Moderation for Residential Space-Conditioning under Demand-Driven Electricity Pricing. 2012.

How to classify occupancy vectors into lifestyle categories such as:

Stay at home Day worker

100,000 categorical random data points 24-dimensional

Missing data

Occupancy vectors arent labeled

Leow, Woei Ling. Zonal and Occupancy-Moderation for Residential Space-Conditioning under Demand-Driven Electricity Pricing. 2012.

How to classify occupancy vectors into lifestyle categories such as:

Stay at home Day worker

100,000 categorical random data points 24-dimensional

Missing data

Occupancy vectors arent labeled

Leow, Woei Ling. Zonal and Occupancy-Moderation for Residential Space-Conditioning under Demand-Driven Electricity Pricing. 2012.

EM Algorithm Application

Latent data Z: the lifestyle category label Generative parameters :

p(z), the likelihood of each lifestyle category pz,i(k), the likelihood of occupying zone k for lifestyle category z at time period i

Leow, Woei Ling. Zonal and Occupancy-Moderation for Residential Space-Conditioning under Demand-Driven Electricity Pricing. 2012.

In addition to the lifestyle category variables, there is also a need to simulate different levels of:

Randomness: how much a given persons occupancy patterns vary Similarity: for multi-occupant houses, how similar the occupants schedules are

Simulated Results

Simulated Results

Simulated Results

Simulated Results

Leow, Woei Ling. Zonal and Occupancy-Moderation for Residential Space-Conditioning under Demand-Driven Electricity Pricing. 2012.

Remote Schedule Updates (RSU)

Performance Improvement (%) of remote schedule updates over use of expected return time to the house (6pm)

(Uniformly distributed return time, from 2pm to 11pm)

20%

10%

0%

Resident prefers Cost savings over Comfort Resident prefers balanced Comfort and Cost savings Resident prefers Comfort over Cost savings

Future work: learning occupancy based on

Personal online calendars TV listings Sports schedules

Customer behaviors

Occupancy Load Profile / consumption

House type and construction EMA can adjust control strategy based on occupant and house Recommend improvements for improved energy efficiency

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K Means Classification

Clustering technique N observations gathered into K clusters Goal is to minimize sum of squares distance within each cluster to the cluster centroid

Each S is a set of clustered observations

=1 2

Caveats

Computationally difficult (NP-hard) Requires specification of K clusters Heuristic, not guaranteed to find global maximum

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1. Place K initial points randomly in the space (initial centroids) 2. Assign each data point to the closest centroid 3. Calculate the centroid of each group of points to get the new centroid 4. Repeat 2 and 3 until centroid no longer moves

Observation space

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1. Place K initial points randomly in the space (initial centroids) 2. Assign each data point to the closest centroid 3. Calculate the centroid of each group of points to get the new centroid 4. Repeat 2 and 3 until centroid no longer moves

Observation space

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1. Place K initial points randomly in the space (initial centroids) 2. Assign each data point to the closest centroid 3. Calculate the centroid of each group of points to get the new centroid 4. Repeat 2 and 3 until centroid no longer moves

Observation space

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1. Place K initial points randomly in the space (initial centroids) 2. Assign each data point to the closest centroid 3. Calculate the centroid of each group of points to get the new centroid 4. Repeat 2 and 3 until centroid no longer moves

Observation space

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1. Place K initial points randomly in the space (initial centroids) 2. Assign each data point to the closest centroid 3. Calculate the centroid of each group of points to get the new centroid 4. Repeat 2 and 3 until centroid no longer moves

Observation space

66

1. Place K initial points randomly in the space (initial centroids) 2. Assign each data point to the closest centroid 3. Calculate the centroid of each group of points to get the new centroid 4. Repeat 2 and 3 until centroid no longer moves

Observation space

67

1. Place K initial points randomly in the space (initial centroids) 2. Assign each data point to the closest centroid 3. Calculate the centroid of each group of points to get the new centroid 4. Repeat 2 and 3 until centroid no longer moves

Observation space

68

1. Place K initial points randomly in the space (initial centroids) 2. Assign each data point to the closest centroid 3. Calculate the centroid of each group of points to get the new centroid 4. Repeat 2 and 3 until centroid no longer moves

Observation space

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Goal

=1

Assign observations

= : 1

Update means

=

1

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Relatively new visualization technique for high dimension data sets Displays similarity and disparity in a data set Based on neural networks Naturally forms clusters around data set Used for classifying electrical consumers by home properties, behavior, or usage patterns

Chicco, G., Napoli, R., Piglione, F., Postolache, P., Scutariu, M., & Toader, C. (2004). Load PatternBased Classification of Electricity 71 Customers, 19(2), 1232-1239.

SOMs Algorithm

Components Observations / Training Data

N observation input vectors of k dimensions E.g. for RGB color (255,100,0)

Node network

Each node consists of topological position (x, y coordinate) and vector of weights of k dimension

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1. Initialize node network 2. Randomly select observation and find closest node 3. Scale neighboring nodes 4. Repeat 2-4

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1. Initialize node network 2. Randomly select observation and find best matching node 3. Scale neighboring nodes 4. Repeat 2-4 until

Randomly generated node network with k = 3 dimensions

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1. Initialize node network 2. Randomly select observation and find closest node 3. Scale neighboring nodes 4. Repeat 2-4 From observation set, randomly select input vector V Search all nodes, W, using Euclidean distance formula

min

=1

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1. Initialize node network 2. Randomly select observation and find closest node 3. Scale neighboring nodes 4. Repeat 2-4 1. Determine neighbors

1. Typically Gaussian neighborhood function with width ()

1. 2.

+ 1 = + ()( ) () =

1.

2 (t)exp( 2 ) 2 ()

t is learning rate

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1. Initialize node network 2. Randomly select observation and find closest node 3. Scale neighboring nodes 4. Repeat 2-4

1. Neighborhood size and learning-rate factor both decrease monotonically with iterations 2. Winning nodes and neighbors are rewarded with larger adjustments towards sampled vector

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Load profile

Understand usage profiles and habits Allow EMA or ISO to identify high cost customer activity Set control algorithms or pricing structures appropriately Input is vector of energy usage

Chicco, G., Napoli, R., Piglione, F., Postolache, P., Scutariu, M., & Toader, C. (2004). Load Pattern78 Based Classification of Electricity Customers, 19(2), 1232-1239.

EMAs can use information on building type, thermal properties, and location to classify Gathered information can be used to provide recommendations and improved control Comparison between nearby homes provides information and incentive to customers

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Goal was to create comparison groups based on building characteristics 8,000 electrical customers 27 input variables

Building construction year # Floors # Rooms Material: concrete, brick, wood, other Heating: water, air, electric, wood, none Features: solar panel, sauna, AC, etc

Rsnen, T., Ruuskanen, J., & Kolehmainen, M. (2008). Reducing energy consumption by using self-organizing maps to create more personalized electricity use information. Applied Energy, 80 85(9), 830-840. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2007.10.012

Data chain

Used SOM to compress and visualize data Ran k means cluster for several different k values Clustered comparison groups and compared energy consumption

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Individual comparison

Rsnen, T., Ruuskanen, J., & Kolehmainen, M. (2008). Reducing energy consumption by using self-organizing maps to create more personalized electricity use information. Applied Energy, 82 85(9), 830-840. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2007.10.012

Comparison groups

Comparing 12 clusters by energy use by floor area Allows EMA to compare performance to those groups or areas which are least or most efficient

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Energy Prices

Real Time Pricing (RTP)

Infrastructure readiness

Distributed generation capability Device/appliance connectedness

Tied to energy prices Education and willingness to trade comfort for savings

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Implications on grid

Generation

Reduce peak and overall demand, significantly reducing infrastructure investment Balance demand with non-dispatchable energy sources Potential for oscillation in price and demand Price event triggers simultaneous demand change

Household

Better control of home energy use Savings without costly upgrades Ease integration of distributed renewables

Machine learning has the potential to improve the performance of EMAs and reduce overall strain on the electrical grid

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Backup

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Image from Agent-based Control for Decentralised Demand Side Management in the Smart Grid by Ramchurn et. al., University of Southampton, UK, 2011

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Electricity Demand (GW) * Simulation with moderate price elasticity of demand

Image from Volatility of Power Grids under Real-Time Pricing by Roozbehani, Dahleh and Mitter, MIT, 2011

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Conclusions

Energy Box can take many forms but provides cost saving to the consumer through constant monitoring and control Potentially significant benefits to consumer and grid Leveraging machine learning to identify occupancy patterns allows for time specific energy use Zonal control allows for directed HVAC and combined with occupancy patterns can significantly reduce energy use

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