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Market Outlook

November 19, 2012

Dealers Diary

Domestic Indices

The Indian market is expected to open on a positive note following positive start to
SGX Nifty and major Asian indices after U.S. President Barack Obama expressed
confidence on resolving the fiscal cliff problem.

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE Sensex

(0.9) (162.0) 18,309

Nifty

(1.0)

(57.0)

5,574

MID CAP

(0.9)

(59.8)

6,658

SMALL CAP

(1.1)

(81.2)

7,111

The US markets ended modestly higher on Friday as it pared early losses following
a constructive meeting in Washington on the fiscal cliff. The market participants
were initially concerned that the President and the Congressional leadership would
not be able to work out a long-term solution to the looming fiscal cliff.

BSE HC

(0.3)

(19.6)

7,686

BSE PSU

(0.6)

(40.7)

7,091

BANKEX

(1.6) (212.6) 13,021

AUTO

(1.5) (158.2) 10,400

Meanwhile, the domestic markets fell sharply in the last hour of trading, after RBI
Governor D Subbarao stated inflation is still quite high, dampening hopes for an
interest rate cut next month. The fall was led by interest rate sensitive stocks. Going
ahead, investor would be watchful of series of global data that are scheduled to be
released this week. The key data points to watch out today will be US existing home
sales housing starts numbers coupled with initial jobless claims data.

METAL

(0.6)

(59.1)

9,860

OIL & GAS

(0.8)

(65.7)

8,067

0.4

24.3

5,669

(Pts)

(Close)

Indices

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

SENSEX
NIFTY

18,083
5,504

18,196
5,539

18,380
5,595

18,493
5,630

18,676
5,685

News Analysis
JLR Cherry JV starts work on China plant
Disa India's Promoters offer for stake sale

Net Inflows (November 17, 2012)


Purch
3,741
28

Sales
3,557
11

` cr
Index Futures
Stock Futures

Purch
1,026
1,609

Net
183
18

MTD
4,073
(1,417)

YTD
52,628
(10,563)

Sales
1,752
1,331

Net
(726)
278

Open Interest
8,207
29,386

Gainers / Losers
Gainers

Losers

Price (`)

chg (%)

Strides Arco

927

4.7

Unitech

Apollo Hosp

830

4.6

J&K Bank

Bharti Airtel

301

3.5

Biocon

292

(4.7)

4,250

3.4

HDIL

102

(4.1)

113

2.5

Adani Enter

226

(4.1)

Shree Cement
United Phos

www.angelbroking.com

Hang Seng

Company

Price (`)

chg (%)

27

(5.6)

1,320

(5.3)

Chg (%)

0.4

45.9 12,588

0.6

16.2

2,853

(1.3)

(72.2)

5,606

2.2

194.4

9,024

0.2

50.1 21,159

Straits Times

(0.0)

(0.3)

2,946

Shanghai Com

(0.8)

(15.6)

2,015

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

1.6

0.7

$42.6

Indian ADR

INFY
WIT

0.2

0.0

$8.2

IBN

(2.0)

(0.8)

$37.4

HDB

1.0

0.4

$37.7

BSE

NSE

Advances

1,112

483

Declines

1,738

1,021

113

76

Unchanged

FII Derivatives (November 16, 2012)

Company

NASDAQ

Advances / Declines

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

` cr
FII
MFs

Dow Jones

Nikkei

The trend deciding level for the day is 18,380 / 5,595 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 18,493 18,676 / 5,630 5,685 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
18,380 / 5,595 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
18,196 18,083 / 5,539 5,504 levels.

Global Indices

FTSE

Markets Today

BSE IT

Volumes (` cr)

BSE

2,388

NSE

11,882

Market Outlook
November 19, 2012

JLR Cherry JV starts work on China plant


As per media reports, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) and Chery Automobile Company
(Chery) has laid the foundation stone for their first manufacturing facility in
Changshu, China. The joint venture (JV) had recently received regulatory approval
to manufacture Jaguar and Land Rover branded vehicles in China. The JV which
entails an investment of US$1.8bn (10.9bn Yuan) will set up a new plant with an
annual capacity of 130,000 vehicles. The scope of the JV includes manufacturing
JLR and JV branded vehicles, manufacturing engines and establishing a research
and development facility. We see this as a positive development for JLR as local
production (will lead to zero import duty as against 25% currently) along with
localization of components and lower labor cost will result in lower cost of
production and therefore higher profitability. We believe that localization will pave
way for faster growth for JLR in China which accounted for ~23% of companys
volumes in 2QFY2013. JLR is also in the process of increasing its dealer network in
China, which is likely to increase to 150 by end of FY2013. We expect JLR to
sustain its volume momentum (expect a ~14% volume growth in FY2013) driven
by the success of Evoque and new XF 2.2 coupled with the launch of new Range
Rover and Jaguar XE in FY2013. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an
SOTP based target price of `319.

Disa India's Promoters offer for stake sale


DISA Holding A/S has submitted to BSE a Notice of Offer for sale of an aggregate
of upto 173,483 equity shares of face value of Rs. 10/- each of Disa India Ltd.
aggregating to 11.487% of the total paid up share capital of the Company as on
November 15, 2012. The Sale shall take place at the separate window of the BSE
Ltd and shall commence on November 20, 2012. Since, expectation of a delisting
offer was the key reason for our recommendation, whose likelihood would cease
post the stake sale offer; we recommend investors to Book Profit on the stock.

Economic and Political News

2G spectrum auction flop, positive for telcos


Oil companies resume issuance of new subsidised LPG connections
Sebi to auction over `10,000cr debt investment for FIIs

Corporate News

IL&FS Transportation refinances term loan worth `530cr in APEL


SREI Infra to raise US$500mn from infrastructure debt fund
BHEL lowest bidder for Odisha thermal power project
Dr Reddy's signs pact with OctoPlus for public offer
Biocon finally gets Bristol-Myers to partner on oral insulin
Nalco's bauxite mining comes to a halt
GMR Energy seeks rescheduling of `2,600cr loan
RIL pitches for market-driven price for natural gas
Uttam Galva acquires Lloyds Steel, to invest `380cr more
NMDC aims 48mn tonne per annum iron ore production capacity by FY15

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
November 19, 2012
Global economic events release calendar
Date

Time

Country Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated

Nov 19 2012
12:00AM
Nov 20 2012
12:00AM
Nov 21 2012
12:00AM
Nov 22 2012
12:00AM
Nov 23 2012
12:00AM
Nov 27 2012
12:00AM
Nov 28 2012
12:00AM
Nov 29 2012
12:00AM
Nov 30 2012
12:00AM
Dec 1 2012 12:00AM

12:00AM

US

Existing home sales

Millions

Oct

4.75

4.74

12:00AM

US

Housing Starts

Thousands

Oct

872.00

840.00

12:00AM

US

Initial Jobless claims

Thousands

Nov 17

439.00

395.00

12:00AM

Germany PMI Services

Value

Nov A

48.40

48.30

12:00AM

Germany GDP nsa (YoY)

% Change

3Q F

0.40

0.40

12:00AM

UK

GDP (YoY)

% Change

3Q P

--

--

12:00AM

US

New home sales

Thousands

Oct

389.00

--

12:00AM

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

Thousands

Nov

20.00

--

12:00AM

India

Qtrly GDP YoY%

% Change

3Q

5.50

--

12:00AM

China

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Nov

50.20

--

Dec 3 2012 12:00AM 12:00AM

UK

PMI Manufacturing

Dec 6 2012 12:00AM 12:00AM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

Dec 6 2012 12:00AM

UK

BOE Announces rates

Dec 7 2012 12:00AM 12:00AM

UK

Industrial Production (YoY)

Dec 9 2012 12:00AM 12:00AM

China

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Dec 10 2012 12:00AM12:00AM

China

Dec 12 2012 12:00AM12:00AM

India

Dec 13 2012 12:00AM12:00AM

US

Dec 14 2012 12:00AM12:00AM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Dec 14 2012 12:00AM

US

Consumer price index (mom)

Dec 14 2012 12:00AM

India

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

Dec 18 2012 12:00AM12:00AM

India

RBI Repo rate

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Value

Nov

47.50

--

% Change

3Q P

(0.10)

--

% Ratio

Dec 6

0.50

0.50

% Change

Oct

(2.60)

--

% Change

Nov

1.70

--

Exports YoY%

% Change

Nov

11.60

--

Industrial Production YoY

% Change

Oct

(0.40)

--

Producer Price Index (mom)

% Change

Nov

(0.20)

--

Nov

2.50

--

% Change

Nov

0.10

--

% Change

Nov

7.45

--

Dec 18

8.00

--

Market Strategy
November 19, 2012

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)
10.0

9.2

9.0

8.5

9.0

8.2

8.0

7.6

7.5

8.0

6.7

7.0

6.1

5.7

6.0

5.3 5.5

5.0
4.0

3.5

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

2QFY10

1QFY10

4QFY09

3.0

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

(%)

Mfg. PMI

60.0

12.0
9.9
10.0

58.0

9.5
7.7

8.0

Services PMI

6.9

7.4

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.5

7.6

7.8

56.0

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


(%)

Sep-11

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

48.0

Feb-12

0.0

Jan-12

50.0

Dec-11

2.0

Nov-11

52.0

Oct-11

4.0

Oct-11

54.0

6.0

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates


Repo rate

(%)
9.00

Imports yoy growth

45.0

Reverse Repo rate

CRR
8.00

8.00

30.0

7.00
7.00

15.0
6.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

4.25

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

4.00

Dec-11

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

5.00

Nov-11

(30.0)

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

(15.0)

Oct-11

0.0

Market Outlook
November 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

158

3,070

1,466

1,686

14.8

14.8

7.0

8.1

22.6

19.5

4.8

4.1

22.6

22.5

2.2

1.9

United Phosphorus

Buy

113

170

5,209

8,421

9,263

16.5

16.5

15.0

17.0

7.5

6.6

1.1

1.0

15.6

15.5

0.8

0.7

Amara Raja Batteries

Neutral

253

4,314

2,911

3,321

16.2

16.2

17.3

19.8

14.6

12.7

4.0

3.1

31.1

27.6

1.4

1.2

Apollo Tyres

Buy

80

104

4,045

13,713

15,341

11.2

11.2

12.5

14.8

6.4

5.4

1.2

1.0

20.2

19.9

0.5

0.4

Ashok Leyland

Accumulate

27

31

7,290

14,490

16,606

9.5

9.6

2.2

2.9

12.3

9.6

2.3

2.0

13.6

16.1

0.6

0.5

Automotive Axle#

Buy

361

430

546

993

1,140

11.6

11.5

36.9

43.0

9.8

8.4

1.9

1.7

21.2

21.3

0.6

0.5

Bajaj Auto

Neutral

1,814

52,480

21,121

23,642

18.4

18.5

108.7

122.6

16.7

14.8

6.9

5.6

46.2

41.6

2.1

1.8

Bharat Forge

Buy

259

324

6,018

6,754

7,565

15.5

15.7

18.8

23.2

13.8

11.2

2.4

2.0

18.5

19.7

1.1

0.9

Bosch India*

Neutral

8,794

27,612

8,776

10,276

16.6

18.0

331.9

417.7

26.5

21.1

5.0

4.1

18.7

19.5

2.8

2.3

CEAT

Buy

101

163

346

4,989

5,634

8.2

8.5

27.1

40.8

3.7

2.5

0.5

0.4

13.2

17.2

0.3

0.2

Exide Industries

Accumulate

139

155

11,807

6,229

7,200

14.8

15.8

7.2

9.0

19.4

15.5

3.4

2.9

18.5

19.9

1.6

1.3

FAG Bearings*

Neutral

1,683

2,797

1,489

1,750

16.5

17.5

103.3

126.9

16.3

13.3

3.2

2.6

21.3

21.6

1.6

1.3

Hero Motocorp

Accumulate

1,818

1,956

36,294

24,743

27,996

14.8

15.2

118.2

130.4

15.4

13.9

6.6

5.2

48.3

41.9

1.2

1.0

JK Tyre

Buy

114

165

467

7,517

8,329

6.6

6.6

37.2

41.3

3.1

2.8

0.5

0.5

18.8

17.8

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate

894

986

54,918

40,035

46,272

11.5

11.6

54.7

62.8

16.4

14.2

3.7

3.1

24.3

23.4

1.1

1.0

Maruti

Neutral

1,439

41,571

42,019

50,246

7.3

8.6

66.1

94.4

21.8

15.2

2.5

2.2

11.9

15.1

0.8

0.7

Motherson Sumi

Neutral

163

9,597

24,285

27,317

6.7

7.2

8.1

10.6

20.3

15.4

4.3

3.5

22.9

24.7

0.6

0.5

Subros

Buy

30

35

180

1,286

1,479

9.4

9.7

2.6

5.1

11.6

5.9

0.6

0.6

5.6

10.3

0.4

0.4

Tata Motors

Buy

265

319

70,639 192,330 219,770

12.8

13.1

37.0

44.5

7.2

6.0

2.0

1.5

31.2

28.9

0.4

0.4

TVS Motor

Buy

38

45

1,805

7,466

8,290

6.2

6.3

4.8

5.6

7.9

6.8

1.4

1.2

18.2

18.7

0.2

0.2

ABB*

Sell

719

573

15,239

7,796

9,907

4.8

7.8

9.2

22.0

78.2

32.7

5.7

5.0

7.5

16.4

1.9

1.5

BGR Energy

Neutral

266

1,918

3,605

4,542

11.8

10.7

25.1

27.9

10.6

9.5

1.6

1.4

31.1

27.1

1.0

0.9

BHEL

Neutral

230

56,283

47,801

43,757

18.5

18.0

24.6

21.8

9.4

10.6

2.8

2.4

33.5

24.5

1.0

1.2

Blue Star

Buy

190

242

1,710

2,763

2,948

3.1

5.6

2.6

8.6

72.3

22.2

4.2

3.7

5.9

17.6

0.7

0.6

Crompton Greaves

Buy

110

145

7,079

12,370

14,277

5.2

7.3

4.0

7.8

27.6

14.2

1.9

1.7

6.9

12.6

0.6

0.5

Jyoti Structures

Buy

45

53

370

2,794

3,048

10.6

10.6

9.2

11.7

4.9

3.8

0.5

0.5

10.9

12.5

0.4

0.4

KEC International

Buy

62

73

1,589

6,858

7,431

7.1

7.5

8.3

9.8

7.5

6.3

1.3

1.1

25.1

24.0

0.4

0.3

LMW

Reduce

2,100

1,992

2,366

2,369

2,727

11.7

11.7

143.4

166.0

14.7

12.7

2.4

2.2

17.4

18.4

0.5

0.4

Thermax

Neutral

572

6,814

5,514

5,813

9.3

10.2

28.1

31.2

20.4

18.3

3.7

3.2

19.2

18.5

1.1

1.0

Capital Goods

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
November 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Cement
ACC

Neutral

1,381

25,929

11,085

12,415

21.6

21.4

79.4

83.1

17.4

16.6

3.4

3.0

20.1

19.2

2.0

1.7

Ambuja Cements

Neutral

203

31,270

10,272

11,884

26.4

26.1

11.5

12.9

17.7

15.7

3.9

3.5

20.8

21.1

2.7

2.2

India Cements

Neutral

86

2,642

4,293

4,666

17.7

18.1

8.6

10.8

10.0

8.0

0.7

0.7

7.5

9.0

1.0

0.9

J K Lakshmi Cements

Neutral

139

1,705

2,082

2,423

22.9

23.1

20.8

22.5

6.7

6.2

1.2

1.0

18.4

17.4

0.9

1.2

Madras Cements

Neutral

215

5,118

3,814

4,045

29.3

27.5

18.7

19.2

11.5

11.2

2.1

1.8

19.9

17.4

2.0

1.7

Shree Cements^

Neutral

4,192

14,602

5,701

6,210

29.7

28.1

240.7

260.7

17.4

16.1

4.2

3.5

27.1

23.6

2.0

1.6

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,918

52,570

21,368

24,043

22.5

23.5

103.5

121.4

18.5

15.8

3.5

2.9

20.2

20.1

2.4

2.2

203

304

1,066

2,034

2,315

22.4

22.4

27.1

31.7

7.5

6.4

0.9

0.8

13.1

13.4

1.8

2.0

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

13

233

2,262

2,522

6.7

7.5

1.5

2.7

8.5

4.7

0.4

0.4

4.4

7.5

0.4

0.4

Hind. Const.

Neutral

17

1,059

4,239

4,522

9.9

11.2

(2.3)

(1.0)

(7.7)

(18.1)

1.0

1.1

(11.4)

(5.6)

1.2

1.2

IRB Infra

Buy

124

164

4,106

3,843

4,212

43.1

43.6

16.8

17.8

7.3

6.9

1.3

1.1

18.3

17.0

3.2

3.5

ITNL

Buy

187

225

3,628

6,564

7,054

27.2

27.4

26.3

29.0

7.1

6.4

1.1

1.0

14.0

11.8

2.7

2.7

IVRCL Infra

Neutral

40

1,238

4,249

6,897

7.8

8.2

0.3

3.3

130.9

12.2

0.6

0.5

0.4

4.4

0.9

0.6

Jaiprakash Asso.

Neutral

91

19,594

15,259

17,502

25.7

24.7

4.0

4.8

22.7

19.1

1.8

1.6

8.5

9.3

2.6

2.3

Larsen & Toubro

Accumulate

1,578

1,748

97,038

60,556

69,167

11.2

11.6

73.8

85.5

21.4

18.5

3.4

3.0

13.5

14.1

1.8

1.6

Madhucon Proj

Buy

34

56

250

2,206

2,502

10.7

10.7

4.6

4.7

7.3

7.2

0.4

0.4

5.2

5.0

0.7

0.7

Nagarjuna Const.

Neutral

43

1,111

5,947

6,569

8.5

8.6

3.1

4.1

14.0

10.5

0.5

0.4

3.3

4.2

0.6

0.6

Patel Engg.

Neutral

76

533

3,609

3,836

13.1

13.1

14.0

14.6

5.5

5.3

0.3

0.3

6.3

6.1

1.0

1.0

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

51

1,697

11,892

13,116

9.0

9.0

1.8

3.2

28.2

15.9

0.6

0.6

2.5

3.7

0.6

0.5

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

137

182

2,074

2,506

3,147

10.3

10.7

7.5

10.4

18.3

13.2

2.3

2.0

13.5

16.0

1.0

0.8

Simplex Infra

Buy

192

251

948

6,882

8,032

9.1

9.1

23.2

31.3

8.3

6.1

0.7

0.7

9.1

11.2

0.5

0.4

Allahabad Bank

Accumulate

137

152

6,865

6,392

7,238

2.7

2.8

30.3

33.3

4.5

4.1

0.7

0.6

14.8

14.5

Andhra Bank

Neutral

Axis Bank

Buy

Bank of Baroda

Financials
104

5,800

4,731

5,431

2.9

3.0

21.5

21.8

4.8

4.8

0.8

0.7

15.2

13.8

1,226

1,476

52,334

15,686

18,687

3.1

3.2

116.8

138.0

10.5

8.9

1.9

1.7

20.0

20.2

Accumulate

736

817

28,828

15,436

18,208

2.5

2.6

111.8

137.4

6.6

5.4

1.0

0.9

15.8

17.0

Bank of India

Accumulate

274

294

15,716

12,491

14,883

2.2

2.4

43.8

63.7

6.3

4.3

0.8

0.7

12.1

15.8

Bank of Maharashtra

Neutral

54

3,207

3,563

3,876

3.1

3.1

9.7

12.0

5.6

4.5

0.8

0.7

14.6

16.1

Canara Bank

Neutral

428

18,956

10,699

12,213

2.1

2.2

67.3

80.1

6.4

5.3

0.9

0.8

13.7

14.6

Central Bank

Neutral

75

5,499

7,171

8,236

2.5

2.6

16.4

21.5

4.6

3.5

0.8

0.6

12.7

14.9

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
November 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Financials
Corporation Bank

Accumulate

396

445

5,862

4,780

5,569

2.0

2.1

101.8

99.2

3.9

4.0

0.7

0.6

17.0

14.7

Dena Bank

Accumulate

108

123

3,791

3,087

3,453

2.7

2.8

25.9

24.1

4.2

4.5

0.8

0.7

19.4

15.6

Federal Bank

Accumulate

459

491

7,843

2,617

2,968

3.3

3.2

45.9

51.7

10.0

8.9

1.2

1.1

13.1

13.3

HDFC

Neutral

775

119,350

7,336

8,802

3.5

3.5

31.5

37.8

24.6

20.5

4.9

4.4

34.8

32.1

HDFC Bank

Neutral

642

151,849

21,696

26,811

4.4

4.5

28.7

36.0

22.4

17.8

4.3

3.6

20.7

22.0

ICICI Bank

Buy

1,027

1,270

118,006

22,271

26,690

3.0

3.0

69.2

83.1

14.8

12.4

1.8

1.7

14.2

15.7

IDBI Bank

Neutral

103

13,193

7,684

9,264

1.8

2.1

15.6

22.0

6.6

4.7

0.7

0.7

10.9

13.9

Indian Bank

Accumulate

174

195

7,459

5,874

6,551

3.2

3.2

40.6

41.8

4.3

4.2

0.7

0.6

18.1

16.4

IOB

Neutral

75

5,997

7,050

8,313

2.3

2.5

12.3

19.9

6.1

3.8

0.6

0.5

8.8

13.1

J & K Bank

Neutral

1,320

6,400

2,762

2,885

3.6

3.6

226.7

193.0

5.8

6.8

1.3

1.1

24.4

17.7

LIC Housing Finance

Buy

250

298

12,591

1,799

2,255

2.3

2.4

20.3

27.3

12.3

9.1

2.0

1.7

16.9

19.7

Oriental Bank

Accumulate

317

347

9,255

6,277

7,090

2.6

2.7

60.5

65.1

5.2

4.9

0.8

0.7

15.0

14.4

Punjab Natl.Bank

Accumulate

743

843

25,211

19,652

22,601

3.2

3.3

135.0

164.3

5.5

4.5

0.9

0.8

16.3

17.3

South Ind.Bank

Accumulate

23

25

3,085

1,556

1,750

2.8

2.7

3.5

3.9

6.7

6.0

1.1

1.0

19.1

16.9

St Bk of India

Buy

2,108

2,437

141,423

61,883

71,546

3.4

3.4

227.2

257.5

9.3

8.2

1.6

1.4

17.8

17.7

Syndicate Bank

Accumulate

119

131

7,184

6,756

7,783

3.0

3.0

26.3

27.1

4.5

4.4

0.8

0.7

18.3

16.6

UCO Bank

Neutral

72

4,763

5,411

6,124

2.4

2.5

17.0

16.5

4.2

4.3

0.8

0.7

16.7

14.4

Union Bank

Accumulate

222

250

12,244

9,912

11,536

2.8

2.9

40.4

46.7

5.5

4.8

0.9

0.8

16.1

16.4

United Bank

Accumulate

67

74

2,410

3,500

3,912

2.6

2.8

15.8

21.2

4.2

3.2

0.6

0.5

13.1

15.7

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

54

2,693

2,490

2,881

2.1

2.2

9.2

11.4

5.9

4.8

0.7

0.7

11.5

13.0

Yes Bank

Buy

416

492

14,821

3,270

4,240

2.8

3.0

34.5

42.2

12.1

9.9

2.6

2.1

23.5

23.5

3,950

37,892

11,198

13,184

16.2

16.2

123.7

146.4

32.0

27.0

10.9

8.5

38.1

35.4

3.3

2.8

477

584

5,700

5,835

6,824

5.7

6.0

20.7

25.4

23.0

18.8

9.1

7.0

43.1

41.9

0.9

0.7

1,330

18,086

3,146

3,573

20.6

21.4

36.4

42.5

36.6

31.3

33.8

28.3

102.0

98.5

5.6

4.9

FMCG
Asian Paints

Neutral

Britannia

Buy

Colgate

Neutral

Dabur India

Neutral

126

21,987

6,124

7,101

17.0

16.8

4.5

5.2

28.2

24.1

11.6

9.2

43.2

41.5

3.6

3.1

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

3,035

12,765

3,124

3,663

17.1

17.6

104.5

123.8

29.1

24.5

9.0

7.3

34.4

32.8

3.7

3.1

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

678

23,067

6,355

7,548

18.4

18.6

22.8

27.6

29.7

24.6

6.8

5.6

26.4

26.1

3.8

3.2

HUL

Neutral

521

112,712

25,350

28,974

13.3

13.5

14.7

17.1

35.4

30.6

28.0

19.8

84.5

75.8

4.3

3.7

ITC

Neutral

275

215,882

29,409

34,060

35.7

36.1

9.3

10.9

29.5

25.1

9.8

8.1

35.8

35.3

7.0

6.0

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
November 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FMCG
Marico

Neutral

218

14,045

4,840

5,643

13.1

13.1

6.2

7.8

35.3

28.0

6.7

5.5

25.4

22.6

3.0

2.5

Nestle*

Neutral

4,709

45,405

8,610

10,174

20.9

21.2

114.8

139.8

41.0

33.7

24.8

17.2

71.2

60.3

5.3

4.4

Tata Global

Neutral

173

10,723

7,207

7,927

9.7

10.0

6.6

7.8

26.2

22.2

2.7

2.6

8.6

9.5

1.4

1.3

HCL Tech^

Accumulate

608

648

42,241

24,214

26,772

19.5

18.1

44.0

48.0

13.8

12.7

3.3

2.8

24.0

22.0

1.7

1.5

Hexaware*

Buy

105

135

3,115

1,944

2,159

21.8

21.1

11.4

12.2

9.2

8.6

2.4

2.0

26.4

24.1

1.3

1.1

Infosys

Accumulate

2,342

2,573

134,477

39,174

41,580

29.5

30.4

159.2

171.6

14.7

13.7

3.6

3.2

24.1

23.1

2.9

2.6

Infotech Enterprises

Neutral

199

2,218

1,886

2,032

17.9

17.3

18.7

20.2

10.7

9.9

1.6

1.4

14.9

14.0

0.8

0.7

KPIT Cummins

Accumulate

123

132

2,198

2,195

2,317

15.5

15.0

10.7

12.1

11.5

10.2

2.4

2.0

21.0

19.8

1.0

0.9

Mahindra Satyam

Accumulate

104

115

12,258

7,597

8,141

20.0

18.8

9.7

10.4

10.8

10.0

3.0

2.3

27.5

22.9

1.2

1.1

Mindtree

Accumulate

671

747

2,751

2,324

2,437

20.0

17.7

73.3

74.7

9.2

9.0

2.2

1.8

24.1

19.7

0.9

0.8

Mphasis&

Neutral

395

8,309

5,700

5,993

18.0

16.9

37.0

37.3

10.7

10.6

1.5

1.3

14.3

12.6

1.0

0.8

NIIT

Accumulate

33

36

549

1,048

1,161

9.3

10.9

4.2

6.2

7.9

5.4

0.8

0.8

10.5

14.1

0.3

0.3

Persistent

Neutral

TCS

Accumulate

Tech Mahindra
Wipro

IT

476

1,902

1,261

1,352

26.4

24.7

48.2

54.0

9.9

8.8

1.9

1.6

19.0

17.9

1.2

1.0

1,286

1,410

251,689

61,053

67,313

28.7

29.1

69.7

76.2

18.5

16.9

6.0

4.9

32.6

29.1

3.9

3.5

Buy

910

1,070

11,623

6,603

7,150

19.8

18.4

92.9

102.0

9.8

8.9

2.3

1.9

23.7

21.0

1.8

1.6

Buy

360

421

88,518

43,219

47,241

20.0

20.0

26.1

28.1

13.8

12.8

2.7

2.3

19.3

17.9

1.7

1.5

D B Corp

Buy

208

259

3,808

1,581

1,784

23.3

25.0

11.6

14.4

17.9

14.4

3.5

3.0

21.0

22.3

2.3

2.0

HT Media

Buy

97

113

2,280

2,111

2,272

15.0

15.2

7.4

8.3

13.2

11.8

1.4

1.3

11.3

11.4

0.7

0.6

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

101

117

3,180

1,503

1,681

23.1

23.1

6.4

7.3

15.7

13.8

3.9

3.5

25.8

26.5

2.3

2.0

PVR

Neutral

238

686

625

732

17.4

17.1

13.3

15.6

17.9

15.2

1.9

1.7

13.2

13.8

1.5

1.3

Sun TV Network

Neutral

357

14,081

1,942

2,237

77.2

75.5

17.6

19.1

20.3

18.7

5.1

4.5

25.8

25.2

6.8

5.8

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

490

10,402

11,979

14,584

31.6

31.0

49.2

61.4

10.0

8.0

1.3

1.1

14.1

15.2

2.8

2.4

Coal India

Neutral

351

221,673

66,666

70,292

25.7

27.3

24.2

26.6

14.5

13.2

4.3

3.5

33.1

29.1

2.4

2.1

Electrosteel Castings

Accumulate

26

29

882

1,984

2,074

10.6

11.6

0.8

2.0

30.5

12.6

0.5

0.2

1.7

4.1

0.6

0.6

Hind. Zinc

Accumulate

135

145

57,232

12,446

13,538

52.3

52.9

15.0

16.4

9.1

8.3

1.8

1.5

21.4

19.7

2.7

2.1

Hindalco

Neutral

109

20,850

79,148

89,258

9.4

9.0

15.0

15.6

7.3

7.0

0.6

0.6

8.8

8.4

0.6

0.6

JSW Steel

Neutral

730

16,296

39,586

41,459

17.6

17.0

78.7

90.1

9.3

8.1

0.9

0.8

10.2

10.7

0.8

0.8

MOIL

Accumulate

243

261

4,076

941

1,019

47.3

48.3

25.8

28.1

9.4

8.6

1.5

1.3

16.7

16.2

2.0

1.6

Monnet Ispat

Buy

289

379

1,860

2,511

3,303

23.8

26.0

46.3

57.3

6.3

5.1

0.7

0.6

12.4

13.7

1.7

1.2

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
November 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

45

11,585

6,898

170

198

67,460

11,209

FY13E

FY14E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY13E

FY14E

7,841

9.9

14.7

12,525

78.4

78.3

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

2.0

3.2

22.7

14.1

1.0

0.9

18.5

20.6

9.2

8.3

2.3

1.9

FY13E

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

4.3

6.8

1.2

1.1

27.0

24.6

4.1

3.4

Metals & Mining


Nalco

Neutral

NMDC

Buy

SAIL

Neutral

79

32,755

47,252

60,351

14.2

14.8

9.6

11.7

8.3

6.8

0.8

0.7

9.4

10.6

1.1

0.9

Sesa Goa

Accumulate

168

183

14,570

4,551

6,640

32.8

34.4

33.7

39.3

5.0

4.3

0.9

0.7

18.3

18.3

3.8

2.6

Sterlite Inds

Accumulate

97

110

32,699

43,185

45,442

23.3

23.7

16.8

17.9

5.8

5.4

0.6

0.6

11.6

11.2

0.7

0.7

Tata Steel

Buy

370

463

35,940 145,725 154,108

8.3

9.5

22.0

44.5

16.8

8.3

0.8

0.7

4.9

9.3

0.5

0.5

Sarda

Accumulate

142

153

509

1,442

1,494

17.6

17.3

27.2

28.7

5.2

4.9

0.6

0.5

11.5

11.0

0.7

0.7

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

48

73

639

2,694

2,906

14.6

16.6

16.4

20.8

2.9

2.3

0.3

0.3

11.4

12.8

0.5

0.3

Buy

121

143

385

2,342

2,470

13.7

15.3

27.7

33.8

4.4

3.6

0.4

0.4

10.9

11.4

0.6

0.6

Cairn India

Buy

331

382

63,251

17,567

17,643

76.2

72.3

61.1

56.8

5.4

5.8

1.1

1.0

22.0

17.5

2.8

2.3

GAIL

Neutral

346

43,934

46,652

54,142

15.7

15.7

34.0

35.3

10.2

9.8

1.8

1.6

18.5

16.8

0.7

0.5

ONGC

Buy

255

312

218,550 147,139 154,821

33.9

33.7

30.7

32.3

8.3

7.9

1.4

1.3

18.3

17.2

1.2

1.1

Reliance Industries

Neutral

775

253,925 362,700 380,031

7.9

8.0

60.0

63.3

12.9

12.3

1.2

1.1

11.1

10.6

0.7

0.6

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

299

3,707

13.2

11.7

22.8

23.5

13.1

12.7

3.9

3.5

33.2

29.2

1.1

0.9

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

262

3,668

3,213

3,643

23.3

23.5

24.3

25.7

10.8

10.2

2.5

2.1

25.0

22.1

1.2

1.1

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Buy

159

183

11,903

30,077

33,570

6.6

6.3

15.1

15.3

10.5

10.4

2.7

2.2

28.4

23.1

0.4

0.4

72

4,071

1,079

1,034

91.8

91.9

8.8

8.4

8.3

8.6

1.4

1.2

17.9

15.0

3.5

3.6

Alembic Pharma

Buy

66

91

1,242

1,624

1,855

14.2

15.6

6.6

9.1

10.0

7.2

2.5

1.9

27.9

29.9

0.9

0.8

Aurobindo Pharma

Neutral

177

5,156

5,243

5,767

14.6

14.6

11.8

12.6

15.0

14.1

1.9

1.6

17.9

16.4

1.5

1.3

Aventis*

Neutral

2,140

4,928

1,482

1,682

15.5

15.5

95.1

104.4

22.5

20.5

4.0

3.1

18.6

17.0

3.1

2.7

Cadila Healthcare

Accumulate

820

926

16,788

6,148

7,386

18.6

19.6

32.7

44.8

25.1

18.3

5.5

4.4

23.7

26.6

3.1

2.5

Cipla

Accumulate

380

419

30,519

8,151

9,130

25.0

24.0

19.5

20.9

19.5

18.2

3.4

2.9

18.8

17.2

3.5

3.0

Dr Reddy's

Accumulate

1,757

1,859

29,833

10,696

11,662

20.7

21.0

83.7

92.9

21.0

18.9

4.3

3.6

22.4

20.8

3.1

2.7

Dishman Pharma

Buy

113

145

908

1,280

1,536

20.2

20.2

10.4

14.5

10.8

7.8

0.9

0.8

8.7

11.0

1.4

1.2

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

1,989

16,844

2,651

2,993

31.7

31.2

76.0

82.4

26.2

24.1

7.6

6.7

20.1

26.3

5.6

4.8

Indoco Remedies

Buy

68

89

629

685

837

15.2

15.2

7.4

8.9

9.2

7.7

1.4

1.2

16.4

17.0

1.1

0.9

Ipca labs

Accumulate

427

485

5,385

2,850

3,474

21.0

21.0

29.9

37.3

14.3

11.5

3.4

2.7

26.7

26.4

2.1

1.7

Lupin

Accumulate

575

652

25,731

8,426

10,082

19.7

20.0

26.3

31.3

21.9

18.4

5.1

4.1

26.0

24.7

3.2

2.6

Orchid Chemicals

Neutral

99

701

1,667

1,835

13.9

13.9

11.4

13.3

8.7

7.5

0.6

0.5

6.6

7.3

0.9

0.8

Neutral

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3,835

3,128

Market Outlook
November 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Pharmaceuticals
Ranbaxy*

Neutral

521

22,026

12,046

11,980

18.0

15.8

31.3

29.8

16.7

17.5

5.7

4.6

39.1

28.9

1.9

1.8

Sun Pharma

Neutral

679

70,218

9,752

12,134

41.6

41.6

26.0

28.2

26.1

24.1

4.9

4.2

20.3

18.8

6.5

5.0

CESC

Neutral

280

3,494

5,218

5,644

24.2

23.8

44.6

47.6

6.3

5.9

0.7

0.6

11.0

10.6

1.4

1.5

GIPCL

Accumulate

NTPC

Neutral

Power
68

78

1,033

1,523

1,568

30.3

30.3

5.4

11.5

12.7

5.9

0.7

0.6

5.6

11.3

1.1

1.0

166

137,040

74,111

85,789

22.7

23.1

12.1

13.7

13.8

12.1

1.7

1.5

12.6

13.2

2.5

2.3

Real Estate
Anant Raj

Sell

93

78

2,736

657

875

52.0

56.1

8.4

12.7

11.0

7.3

0.7

0.6

6.3

8.9

5.4

4.1

DLF

Neutral

204

34,617

9,878

12,033

44.7

46.1

9.6

13.4

21.3

15.2

1.4

1.3

6.4

8.7

6.0

4.9

HDIL

Accumulate

102

115

4,272

2,441

3,344

55.1

48.2

22.7

26.6

4.5

3.8

0.4

0.3

8.8

9.4

3.6

2.7

MLIFE

Neutral

406

1,656

813

901

26.2

26.6

32.0

37.1

12.7

11.0

1.3

1.2

10.4

11.0

2.4

2.1

Bharti Airtel

Neutral

301

114,344

81,984

90,718

32.1

33.8

10.9

16.9

27.6

17.8

2.1

1.9

7.6

10.6

2.1

1.7

Idea Cellular

Neutral

95

31,504

22,234

24,161

26.9

27.7

3.3

4.9

28.8

19.3

2.2

2.0

7.7

10.3

1.9

1.7

Rcom

Neutral

61

12,673

21,090

22,308

31.8

29.9

3.0

3.8

20.2

16.2

0.3

0.3

1.7

2.1

2.3

2.0

11.8

13.3

60.8

79.5

23.8

18.2

4.9

4.1

22.0

24.4

1.7

1.4

Telecom

zOthers
Abbott India

Accumulate

1,444

1,590

3,068

1,629

1,886

Bajaj Electricals

Accumulate

202

217

2,010

3,497

3,968

6.6

7.6

9.8

15.5

20.6

13.0

2.6

2.3

12.7

17.4

0.6

0.5

Cera Sanitaryware

Neutral

406

514

427

528

15.7

14.6

30.0

34.0

13.5

12.0

3.0

2.4

24.6

22.5

1.3

1.1

Cravatex

Buy

421

545

109

272

308

7.2

7.3

37.5

45.4

11.2

9.3

2.7

2.1

23.7

22.7

0.5

0.4

CRISIL

Neutral

926

6,502

982

1,136

34.3

34.3

34.3

40.0

27.0

23.2

12.2

9.8

50.9

46.9

6.2

5.2

Finolex Cables

Buy

50

61

759

2,304

2,552

9.9

9.1

8.2

10.1

6.1

4.9

0.8

0.7

13.7

14.7

0.3

0.2

Force Motors

Accumulate

491

537

639

2,318

2,700

5.0

5.7

45.0

67.0

10.9

7.3

0.5

0.5

5.0

7.0

0.2

0.2

Goodyear India

Buy

312

360

719

1,494

1,607

6.4

7.8

23.9

33.0

13.0

9.4

2.1

1.8

16.5

20.1

0.3

0.2

Disa India

Buy

2,721

3,275

411

138

174

17.2

21.5

103.7

163.8

26.2

16.6

10.0

8.5

37.9

51.0

2.7

2.1

Greenply Industries

Neutral

295

711

1,925

2,235

10.6

10.9

29.6

44.1

10.0

6.7

1.6

1.3

16.8

21.0

0.7

0.5

Hitachi

Buy

126

146

290

873

989

4.4

6.5

6.4

12.2

19.9

10.4

1.6

1.4

8.3

14.4

0.4

0.3

2,858

2,527

1,745

1,993

4.0

5.3

59.5

90.4

48.0

31.6

3.6

3.1

8.1

11.3

1.3

1.2

1,142

1,059

1,116

8.5

9.5

36.0

42.0

18.0

15.5

2.6

2.3

15.4

16.0

1.1

1.0

Honeywell Automation* Neutral


Styrolution ABS India*

Accumulate

649

744

ITD Cementation

Neutral

251

289

1,323

1,455

12.4

12.4

23.2

27.7

10.8

9.1

0.7

0.7

6.8

7.6

0.7

0.6

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

175

2,826

1,228

1,443

9.0

10.9

3.9

6.4

45.1

27.5

4.5

4.1

10.1

15.6

2.8

2.3

MCX

Reduce

1,525

1,440

7,778

553

624

65.3

66.3

62.5

72.0

24.4

21.2

6.7

5.8

27.5

27.4

11.1

9.3

MRF

Buy

10,066

12,884

4,269

11,804

12,727

10.4

10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3

7.8

7.0

1.5

1.3

21.3

19.4

0.5

0.4

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
November 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

zOthers
Page Industries

Accumulate

3,359

3,602

3,747

836

1,023

20.2

20.6

105.6

133.4

31.8

25.2

16.2

11.4

59.3

53.2

4.5

3.7

Relaxo Footwears

Accumulate

825

933

990

1,019

1,208

11.0

12.5

47.0

66.7

17.6

12.4

4.4

3.2

28.2

30.1

1.1

0.9

Sintex Industries

Buy

64

79

1,746

4,751

5,189

16.3

16.6

13.6

15.8

4.7

4.1

0.6

0.5

12.9

13.2

0.7

0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

306

366

287

1,043

1,149

12.3

12.9

65.7

73.3

4.7

4.2

0.9

0.8

21.0

19.6

0.5

0.5

S. Kumars Nationwide

Neutral

14

412

7,134

7,985

19.7

19.4

12.2

14.1

1.1

1.0

0.1

0.1

11.3

11.5

0.6

0.6

SpiceJet

Buy

35

43

1,707

5,720

6,599

5.3

6.8

3.6

5.4

9.8

6.6

14.2

4.5

0.4

0.4

TAJ GVK

Buy

73

108

456

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

9.2

8.0

1.2

1.1

13.9

14.4

1.8

1.6

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

314

384

483

750

803

18.6

18.4

65.4

69.1

4.8

4.5

0.7

0.7

16.5

15.3

0.3

0.2

TVS Srichakra

Buy

285

335

218

1,476

1,643

7.0

8.2

32.6

55.9

8.8

5.1

1.4

1.2

16.8

24.8

0.4

0.3

United Spirits

Neutral

1,792

23,432

10,289

11,421

12.8

12.8

26.0

45.3

68.9

39.6

3.1

2.9

5.8

7.6

2.6

2.4

Vesuvius India

Neutral

346

702

560

611

16.1

17.0

24.7

28.8

14.0

12.0

2.1

1.8

15.8

16.2

1.1

1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on November 16, 2012

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Market Outlook
November 19, 2012

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