23 November 2012

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 November 2012

Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
Timing .......................................................................................................................... 3
Value ........................................................................................................................... 4
Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 4
How to use the report ....................................................................................................... 5
Over Valued ............................................................... 6
Aerospace & Defence
Automobiles & Parts
Banks
Beverages
Chemicals

Under Valued ................................................................. 6

Over Valued ................................................................................ 6
Under Valued .......................................................................... 6
Under Valued .......................................................................... 6

Construction & Building Materials

Electronics & Electrical Equipment

Over Valued ................................................ 7

Over Valued ............................................... 7

Under Valued .......................................................... 7

Over Valued ................................................................. 8

Engineering & Machinery

Food & Drug Stores

Under Valued ..................................................... 8

Food Producers & Processors
Under Valued ....................................................................... 8
General Retail
Over Valued ................................................................................. 8
Health
Over Valued ...................................................... 9

Household Goods & Textiles

Over Valued ........................................... 9

Information Technology & Hardware
Under Valued .............................................................................. 9
Insurance
Over Valued ................................................................. 9
Leisure & Hotels
Life Assurance

Over Valued ..................................................................... 10

Over Valued ........................................................... 10

Media & Entertainment

Under Valued ................................................................................ 10
Mining
Under Valued ............................................................................ 10
Oil & Gas
Personal Care & Household Products

Over Valued ......................................... 11

Over Valued .............................................. 11

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Under Valued ........................................................................ 11
Real Estate
Under Valued ................................................. 11
Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance

Over Valued ....................................................... 12

Over Valued ............................................................... 12

Support Services
Ov e r Va lue d .................................................... 13
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ............................................................................ 13
Transport
Under Valued ............................................................................... 13
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ................................................................................................................... 14
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ............................................................................. 15

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 2 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 November 2012

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will
identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and
information noisy trading environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically,
before the official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the
two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that
influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been
established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well
as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find
stories for their investment meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading
indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as
well as some 74% accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks
analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 3 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 November 2012

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a
daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the
Consolidated Income Statement but also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and
then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment
research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend
themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as
realistically valid as possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of
market levels but a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating
operating environment set against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a
modest range of some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the
intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies
as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme.
However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to
challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors
from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems
active position monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and
not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment
options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is
provided solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact
your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you
may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign
currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and
the income from them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 4 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 November 2012

How to use the report

This daily report is typically available for download as a PDF from 7am - well in advance of the markets
open - and is based upon previous days closing prices.
We have kept the report deliberately simple for quick reading and identification of the shares most likely to
be active as can be seen from the following:

Longer term action based

upon implied target price
Todays action
Sector

Implied target price

based upon 49
valuation metrics

Closing price

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT

Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00

12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00

12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

21.16
6.36

9.36
2.20

21.69
6.55

Neutral
Neutral

FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12

23.50
324.70
0.40

19.50
189.00
0.24

82.00
342.30
17.00

Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

JD SPORTS FASHION

731.00

570.00

863.00

Neutral

57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25

38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50

110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75

Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL

DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Company

Latest 12 month
Hi/Lo for the
share price

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Strong
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
30
298
739
268

Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97

38
4

1.56
0.94

112
415
-62

1.05
0.67
0.88

1341

0.47

321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29

1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31

eta measures a
shares
volatility/risk
relative to market

(see below)

Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta of
1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from the
market. This can be summarised as:

eta <1.0

Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)

eta =1.0

Share should move in line with the market

eta >1.0

Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 5 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Aerospace & Defence

Stock
BAE SYSTEMS
C HEMRING GROUP
C OBHAM
MEGGITT
ROLLS-ROYC E HOLDINGS
SMITHS GROUP
ULTRA ELEC TRONIC S HDG.

Price 12M Lo
309.70 251.40
229.20 217.00
202.50 165.90
379.00 337.30
872.00 642.73
1061.00 875.00
1520.00 1400.00

12M Hi
363.60
460.00
239.50
414.90
882.08
1113.00
1780.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
214.40 166.30
414.70 284.10
75.00
48.00
14.25
6.80

12M Hi
237.20
418.20
79.00
16.25

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy

Price 12M Lo
252.00 147.90
622.00 463.50
45.95
21.84
292.70 173.40
1444.50 1228.50

12M Hi
256.75
626.10
46.52
292.70
1662.50

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
481.50 348.00
1876.00 1281.00
2801.00 2096.00

12M Hi
481.60
1876.00
2868.50

Beta
1.96
1.45
1.32
1.14

Target
144
991
57
-147
1217

Beta
1.89
1.17
1.86
1.37
1.68

ST Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral

LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy

Target
526
1595
3373

Beta
0.49
0.54
1.00

Under Valued

Chemicals
Stock
C RODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
VIC TREX
YULE C ATTO
ZOTEFOAMS

Target
205
400
82
24

Under Valued

Beverages
Stock
BARR (AG)
DIAGEO
SABMILLER

Beta
0.68
0.55
0.87
1.33
1.09
0.70
0.58

Over Valued

Banks
Stock
BARC LAYS
HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
ROYAL BANK OF SC TL.GP.
STANDARD C HARTERED

Target
483
495
234
318
566
838
1273

Under Valued

Automobiles & Parts

Stock
GKN
INC HC APE
LOOKERS
PENDRAGON

23 November 2012

Price
2303.00
214.50
2289.00
1519.00
168.00
190.00

12M Lo
1663.00
127.50
1724.40
1070.00
127.40
109.00

12M Hi
2501.00
240.30
2573.00
1535.00
251.00
225.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Target
3782
296
6092
1648
310
182

Page 6 of 15

Beta
1.06
1.05
1.44
1.16
1.23
0.99

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Construction & Building Materials

Stock
BALFOUR BEATTY
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
BELLWAY
BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)
BOVIS HOMES GROUP
C ARILLION
C LARKE (T)
C OSTAIN GROUP
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
MORGAN SINDALL GROUP
PERSIMMON
REDROW
SIG
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
WOLSELEY

Price
249.50
188.20
968.00
1597.00
513.00
293.20
45.88
235.50
700.00
607.50
1161.00
51.75
97.50
543.00
779.00
158.10
107.60
58.00
1134.00
2790.00

12M Lo
214.60
87.30
660.00
1176.00
399.30
235.50
35.50
180.50
441.70
239.25
1095.00
38.00
76.00
512.00
446.20
103.50
76.95
34.86
752.50
1727.00

12M Hi
320.80
194.90
1029.00
1597.00
525.00
344.00
54.50
249.50
753.00
627.50
1489.00
66.50
103.62
725.00
815.50
163.00
123.20
63.10
1135.00
2811.00

Price 12M Lo
1112.00 685.00
545.00 436.50
110.25
99.25
223.10 180.90
225.90 128.50
1302.00 905.50
1820.00 800.00
1849.00 1122.00
0.08
0.08
132.75 114.00
263.00 185.00

12M Hi
1244.00
670.00
149.50
257.00
243.90
1390.00
1838.00
1902.00
0.22
203.50
275.00

Target
-37
32
114
3040
67
-205
21
451
-90
277
871
80
40
96
236
32
133
-7
487
499

Beta
0.83
1.51
1.09
0.69
1.13
1.12
0.77
0.64
1.05
1.29
1.00
1.10
1.31
0.87
1.17
1.04
1.67
1.58
1.93
1.46

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Target
618
752
196
274
86
949
1963
1738
0
312
183

Beta
0.76
1.18
1.30
1.41
2.13
0.99
1.27
1.46
0.83
1.60
1.12

Under Valued

Engineering & Machinery

Stock
AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP
BODYC OTE
C ASTINGS
C OOKSON GROUP
FENNER
HALMA
HILL & SMITH
IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN C RUC IBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARC O
VITEC GROUP
WEIR GROUP

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Over Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment

Stock
DIALIGHT
DOMINO PRINTING SC IENC ES
E2V TEC HNOLOGIES
INVENSYS
LAIRD
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
RENISHAW
SPEC TRIS
BIOME TEC HNOLOGIES
TT ELEC TRONIC S
XAAR

23 November 2012

Price
62.00
394.00
302.50
587.50
385.50
429.80
395.00
1000.00
4.50
244.40
2429.00
188.60
92.75
2174.00
662.50
1774.00

12M Lo
54.25
242.90
253.00
427.10
329.30
310.90
235.00
681.50
3.88
220.30
1629.00
155.90
92.50
1708.00
547.00
1397.00

12M Hi
92.00
437.10
358.50
747.50
483.70
448.50
403.75
1022.00
9.00
360.00
2435.00
213.00
219.50
2334.00
740.00
2236.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
128
464
609
715
371
339
321
1152
4
468
1710
200
82
1941
570
1755

Page 7 of 15

Beta
1.25
1.58
0.98
2.22
1.45
0.76
1.36
1.40
0.84
1.80
1.02
1.70
1.00
0.84
1.46
1.39

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Food & Drug Stores

Stock
GREGGS
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
SAINSBURY (J)
TESC O
THORNTONS

Price 12M Lo
477.10 457.00
263.40 256.20
332.40 283.20
317.35 297.05
29.75
9.50

12M Hi
558.00
328.00
361.10
411.25
38.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1451.00 1078.00
733.00 695.00
360.50 290.40
315.90 247.00
96.00
44.50
765.00 633.50
2358.00 1977.00

12M Hi
1451.00
858.00
361.10
341.20
180.00
767.50
2358.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy

Price 12M Lo
27.38
18.50
358.10 222.40
1239.00 1000.00
675.00 375.00
25.80
9.36
8.90
2.47
24.00
19.50
344.10 189.00
720.00 570.00
50.75
38.00
277.00 237.20
378.00 302.70
55.75
31.25
303.00 130.10
3603.00 2573.00
980.00 633.00
47.00
21.50

12M Hi
29.50
358.10
1586.00
728.50
25.84
9.03
58.75
356.80
863.00
88.95
313.80
398.70
58.00
303.00
3650.00
1017.00
51.75

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Beta
0.48
0.42
0.67
0.71
0.84

Target
1137
1243
334
293
-144
899
3056

Beta
0.59
0.58
0.90
0.31
1.40
0.64
0.58

Target
30
319
878
246
36
3
100
442
1348
80
349
456
56
417
3317
584
31

Beta
0.72
0.54
1.31
0.97
1.57
1.13
1.05
0.70
0.48
1.27
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.46
0.72
0.56
1.31

Over Valued

Health
Stock
C ONSORT MEDIC AL
C ORIN GROUP
SMITH & NEPHEW

Target
612
204
229
279
21

Under Valued

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
C ARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENC H C ONNEC TN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENC ER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERC ARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Under Valued

Food Producers & Processors

Stock
ASSOC IATED BRIT.FOODS
C RANSWIC K
DAIRY C REST
DEVRO
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

23 November 2012

Price 12M Lo
763.50 498.00
69.50
35.25
654.50 555.00

12M Hi
777.00
69.50
693.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
631
68
705

Page 8 of 15

Beta
0.49
0.68
0.37

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Household Goods & Textiles

Stock
GAMES WORKSHOP
HEADLAM GROUP
HORNBY

Price 12M Lo
677.50 405.00
318.00 242.50
59.00
55.25

12M Hi
720.50
319.75
139.75

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy

Price 12M Lo
738.50 469.00
345.40 154.10
36.00
16.25
423.20 406.70
150.50 105.80
187.50
96.00

12M Hi
747.00
355.60
47.25
717.00
174.00
230.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1085.00 787.00
383.90 302.50
173.80 125.10
469.40 369.50
483.50 359.00
750.00 635.00
113.50
97.65
357.00 310.00

12M Hi
1231.00
405.00
177.00
489.60
489.40
790.00
121.50
388.50

Target
431
719
38
380
526
-240

Beta
0.77
1.21
0.79
1.08
0.97
1.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
417
-2413
1289
624
1764
2679
1426
1657

Beta
0.56
0.49
0.57
0.34
0.49
0.31
0.43
0.48

Over Valued

Leisure & Hotels

Stock
C ARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
TUI TRAVEL
FULLER SMITH 'A'
GREENE KING
LADBROKES
IC TL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & C PTH.HTLS.
MITC HELLS & BUTLERS
BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.
PUNC H TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
WETHERSPOON (JD)
WHITBREAD
WILLIAM HILL
MARSTON'S

Beta
0.41
0.94
0.73

Under Valued

Insurance
Stock
ADMIRAL GROUP
AMLIN
BEAZLEY
C ATLIN GROUP
HISC OX
JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON
RSA INSURANC E GROUP
NOVAE GROUP

Target
659
258
91

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware

Stock
ARM HOLDINGS
C SR
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES
SPIRENT C OMMUNIC ATIONS
WOLFSON MIC ROELEC TRONIC S

23 November 2012

Price
2521.00
82.00
261.80
726.00
600.00
191.80
1672.00
463.00
328.40
113.80
6.50
149.00
390.00
536.50
2360.00
335.60
123.30

12M Lo
1841.00
26.50
148.90
657.25
441.30
120.70
1001.17
380.00
215.60
91.90
5.61
111.00
269.20
371.30
1508.00
183.30
87.50

12M Hi
2544.00
82.00
261.80
798.00
625.00
191.80
1727.01
518.00
337.00
174.00
12.50
154.30
391.00
536.50
2456.00
357.50
127.70

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy

Target
4863
43
748
743
619
169
1423
606
369
30
-198
454
306
664
1877
271
159

Page 9 of 15

Beta
1.00
1.66
1.00
0.41
0.91
0.97
1.20
1.37
1.07
1.25
1.22
0.94
0.87
0.79
1.02
0.94
1.22

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 November 2012
Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock
AVIVA
C HESNARA
LEGAL & GENERAL
OLD MUTUAL
PRUDENTIAL
ST.JAMES'S PLAC E

Price 12M Lo
343.70 255.30
194.50 155.25
142.60
96.00
169.80 102.75
882.50 555.00
400.50 294.00

12M Hi
382.60
207.50
144.20
177.70
889.00
400.50

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Over Valued

Media & Entertainment

Stock
AEGIS GROUP
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
BRITISH SKY BC AST.GROUP
C ENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
INFORMA
ITE GROUP
ITV
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
STV GROUP
ST.IVES
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
HIBU

Price 12M Lo
234.80 122.30
120.00
91.25
766.00 635.50
49.63
28.50
524.00 363.50
765.00 618.50
403.40 328.20
195.40 175.10
96.00
59.05
12.00
4.53
1175.00 1069.00
50.50
36.25
273.50 209.87
27.17
26.21
102.25
76.25
103.00
67.50
80.00
25.50
727.50 448.00
139.50
78.50
839.00 616.50
0.29
0.27

12M Hi
237.80
146.50
773.00
51.75
524.00
828.00
451.00
240.60
96.00
13.25
1294.00
56.50
377.50
30.02
119.50
106.00
80.25
733.00
143.00
880.00
6.27

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price
1704.50
243.00
1247.00
1941.00
299.10
6580.00
3010.00
4.88

12M Lo
1664.00
221.25
991.00
1681.00
240.84
4596.00
2715.50
3.75
832.50
1014.00 785.80

12M Hi
2910.00
340.00
1399.00
2206.50
599.98
7775.00
3988.00
34.00
1502.00
1283.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Target
-303
799
68
1982
1761
87
300
518
758
245
1365
470
368
519
-241
1845
562
266
509
545
23

Beta
1.31
0.46
0.57
1.01
1.07
0.98
1.58
1.43
1.56
1.28
0.66
0.83
0.24
0.54
0.81
1.44
1.60
1.35
0.90
1.31
1.11

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy

Target
3102
284
972
3598
623
3048
3613
140
2400
1123

Beta
1.71
1.01
1.45
1.43
1.93
0.28
1.42
0.92
2.13
1.77

Under Valued

Oil & Gas

Stock
BG GROUP
BP
C AIRN ENERGY
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL B
SOC O INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell

Under Valued

Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERIC AN
ANGLO PAC IFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
LONMIN
RANDGOLD RESOURC ES
RIO TINTO
UK C OAL
VEDANTA RESOURC ES
XSTRATA

Target
992
298
244
148
782
366

Price
1073.00
433.60
266.80
8.10
762.50
80.00
338.10
2146.50
373.40
1396.00
808.50

12M Lo
1000.50
391.95
248.20
7.86
617.50
73.00
322.30
2039.00
254.90
1236.00
587.50

12M Hi
1547.00
504.60
360.00
12.13
968.00
187.75
449.70
2489.00
373.40
1601.00
875.50

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral

Target
1216
1519
-16
14
496
295
286
10733
254
804
788

Page 10 of 15

Beta
0.76
1.06
1.35
0.89
1.28
1.45
1.38
0.91
0.53
1.08
1.36

Beta
1.29
0.67
1.69
1.63
1.72
0.86

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 November 2012
Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products

Stock
MC BRIDE
PZ C USSONS
REC KITT BENC KISER GROUP

Price 12M Lo
138.75 102.70
353.80 285.00
3859.00 3125.00

12M Hi
140.00
359.40
3859.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Price
3.45
2866.00
352.10
586.00
1337.00
2.33
9.63
1796.00
67.00
22.75

12M Lo
2.54
2591.00
273.20
418.33
1317.50
2.05
5.88
1727.00
31.00
18.75

12M Hi
4.00
3111.50
423.00
622.00
1507.50
5.80
12.75
2300.00
101.50
27.38

ST Rec
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
326.30 238.00
532.00 444.00
26.75
22.75
673.00 520.00
2046.00 1495.00
163.00 121.75
113.50
83.10
454.90 312.90
463.70 345.20
196.00 163.50
792.00 612.00
340.60 288.70
137.50 108.50
360.00 280.25
53.50
32.50
438.00 275.00
544.00 459.70
226.90 195.00
209.50 103.50
184.50 130.00
261.90 154.10
1.43
1.43
302.00 213.25

12M Hi
352.10
549.50
34.25
740.00
2115.00
176.00
116.00
477.70
483.40
206.00
821.00
354.20
144.00
390.00
56.75
438.00
551.00
259.20
220.00
189.50
284.10
4.13
310.00

Target
34
4804
407
2755
-134
13
3
1514
266
110

Beta
1.04
0.49
0.64
0.28
0.49
0.71
0.94
0.67
0.71
0.86

Price 12M Lo
136.50
72.75
2042.00 1420.00
388.60 292.40
280.50 233.50
22.50
16.75
581.50 352.08
160.00 135.00
78.75
58.00
1424.00 1275.00
307.80 247.70

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
-303
799
68
1982
1761
87
300
518
758
245
1365
470
368
519
-241
1845
562
266
509
545
23
112
583

Beta
1.13
1.04
0.69
0.69
1.20
0.97
1.47
1.06
1.14
0.71
1.14
1.09
0.71
0.47
1.15
0.69
0.99
1.65
1.46
1.06
1.73
1.01
1.01

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services

Stock
ANITE
AVEVA GROUP
C OMPUTAC ENTER
KOFAX
INNOVATION GROUP
MIC RO FOC US INTL.
PHOENIX IT GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Under Valued

Real Estate
Stock
BIG YELLOW GROUP
BRITISH LAND
C APITAL & REGIONAL
C LS HOLDINGS
DERWENT LONDON
DEVELOPMENT SEC S.
GRAINGER
GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES
HAMMERSON
HELIC AL BAR
LAND SEC URITIES GROUP
C APITAL SHOPC TS.GROUP
MC KAY SEC URITIES
MUC KLOW (A & J) GROUP
QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.
SAVILLS
SHAFTESBURY
SEGRO
ST MODWEN PROPS.
TOWN C ENTRE SEC URITIES
UNITE GROUP
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPAC E GROUP

Beta
0.85
0.71
0.35

Over Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Stock
ARK THERAPEUTIC S GP.
ASTRAZENEC A
BTG
DEC HRA PHARMAC EUTIC ALS
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDIC A
PHYTOPHARM
SHIRE
SKYEPHARMA
VERNALIS

Target
248
305
3891

12M Hi
149.90
2074.00
461.90
314.00
23.00
595.50
231.75
93.50
1766.00
324.80

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Target
98
1050
1173
259
18
708
260
-65
1665
310

Page 11 of 15

Beta
0.89
1.41
1.04
1.13
0.86
0.82
0.89
0.53
0.81
0.74

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 November 2012
Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance

Stock
ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.
BREWIN DOLPHIN
C AMELLIA
C HARLES STANLEY GROUP
C HARLES TAYLOR
C LOSE BROTHERS GROUP
F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT
HELPHIRE GROUP
HENDERSON GROUP
IC AP
INTERMEDIATE C APITAL GP.
INVESTEC
LONDON STOC K EX.GROUP
MAN GROUP
RATHBONE BROTHERS
SC HRODERS
SC HRODERS NV

Price 12M Lo
12M Hi
338.40 181.00
340.60
176.70 118.00
184.60
9700.00 9175.00 10250.00
291.50 247.50
296.50
165.13 115.63
189.75
840.00 590.00
876.50
99.00
59.50
102.80
1.70
0.77
3.61
115.70
90.55
128.30
293.20 281.40
431.50
293.30 220.10
321.50
382.30 310.40
414.90
984.00 756.50 1105.00
77.50
63.25
152.50
1279.00 989.00 1373.00
1569.00 1166.00 1650.00
1269.00 966.00 1309.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Sell Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy

Beta
1.12
0.77
0.81
0.96
0.71
0.87
0.90
0.66
1.46
1.04
1.61
1.55
1.13
1.29
0.77
1.34
1.28

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock
AC AL
AGGREKO
AMEC
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABC OC K INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
C APITA
C OMMUNISIS
C OMPASS GROUP
BERENDSEN
DE LA RUE
DIGNITY
DIPLOMA
ELEC TROC OMP.
FILTRONA
G4S
HAYS
HOMESERVE
INTERSERVE
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVIC E GROUP
MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP.
MENZIES (JOHN)
MIC HAEL PAGE INTL.
MITIE GROUP
OFFIC E2OFFIC E
PAYPOINT
PREMIER FARNELL
REGUS
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RIC ARDO
ROBERT WALTERS
RPC GROUP
RPS GROUP
SERC O GROUP
SHANKS GROUP
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG

Target
87
94
9096
182
109
253
95
111
54
204
107
19
1518
93
979
1040
4140

Price 12M Lo
158.50 158.50
2166.00 1699.00
1034.00 838.00
389.60 150.50
974.50 673.50
385.00 317.00
1057.00 785.50
290.75 192.25
731.00 602.00
38.25
23.75
714.00 544.00
580.00 412.00
1002.00 861.50
980.00 755.50
469.10 299.00
208.90 187.50
567.50 369.80
245.40 230.00
77.30
58.85
239.60 137.50
359.00 270.10
2946.00 1812.00
34.25
25.25
23.00
21.25
594.00 503.50
350.30 323.00
270.50 235.80
120.50 120.50
860.00 475.00
168.00 153.20
96.00
75.95
86.40
58.20
438.00 326.10
349.63 304.50
195.25 158.25
427.10 316.50
215.70 173.20
556.00 458.00
81.95
75.80
34.00
18.50
98.50
40.50
44.88
36.63
337.75 191.00
61.00
42.00

12M Hi
219.50
2400.00
1172.00
392.70
992.00
410.50
1167.00
290.75
781.50
41.00
727.00
589.00
1075.00
980.00
497.90
263.00
586.00
292.10
92.50
310.00
392.80
2946.00
35.00
39.50
652.00
497.00
300.80
163.75
876.50
228.80
117.50
89.90
461.40
391.00
264.63
447.00
256.60
602.00
113.00
34.50
98.50
49.50
354.88
62.50

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
259
1093
898
259
544
657
675
374
419
60
526
808
525
628
344
265
294
235
97
412
577
1192
77
45
1079
266
283
195
586
224
90
44
503
393
260
439
204
472
137
43
41
50
513
152

Page 12 of 15

Beta
0.88
1.09
1.07
1.61
0.45
0.78
0.52
0.31
0.50
0.77
0.70
1.02
#NA
0.17
0.98
1.04
1.11
0.58
1.09
0.91
1.26
0.82
1.19
0.71
1.41
1.42
0.56
0.42
0.72
1.29
1.44
1.31
0.88
0.83
1.27
0.80
1.55
0.58
1.46
1.28
0.52
0.94
0.90
0.78

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 November 2012
Ov e r Va lue d

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
C ABLE & WIRELESS C OMMS.
INMARSAT
KC OM GROUP
TELEC OM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

Price 12M Lo
225.00 176.50
35.08
27.28
575.00 389.30
71.00
65.75
893.50 612.00
158.30 157.80

12M Hi
236.80
45.16
602.00
85.20
893.50
191.25

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
199.80 164.70
358.50 288.00
1204.00 1050.00
693.50 345.86
179.70 175.70
794.50 460.00
1221.00 1086.00
170.50 167.60
250.25 159.60
274.90 230.40
74.50
31.00

12M Hi
218.80
425.00
1390.00
693.50
344.00
801.00
1412.00
252.00
266.75
297.20
91.75

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell

Target
149
358
1221
425
388
286
1354
179
463
285
-25

Beta
1.32
0.99
0.79
0.79
1.00
0.83
0.95
1.35
1.43
0.94
0.90

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock
C ENTRIC A
NATIONAL GRID
PENNON GROUP
SSE
SEVERN TRENT
UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

Beta
0.90
0.67
0.54
1.28
0.03
0.53

Over Valued

Transport
Stock
BBA AVIATION
BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.
C LARKSON
EASYJET
FIRST GROUP
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
NORTHGATE
STAGEC OAC H GROUP
WINC ANTON

Target
264
66
487
103
583
133

Price 12M Lo
322.20 278.80
707.00 597.50
607.00 598.00
1400.00 1209.00
1570.00 1454.00
670.50 589.00

12M Hi
341.30
711.00
796.00
1461.00
1796.00
736.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell

Target
454
780
728
1638
1401
620

Page 13 of 15

Beta
0.47
0.52
0.54
0.44
0.34
0.49

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 November 2012

DISCLAIMER
Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys (Intellisys) is the trading name of
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of
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Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 November 2012

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