DAILY NEWSLETTER OF ESSENTIAL

Friday, November 23, 2012

MARKET WEATHER INFORMATION

Morning forecast

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weather at a glance
Heavy rain hits C Argentina again S Santa Fe/N BA see 1-3 inches Next storm 8 days out

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Corn acreage decreased

Heavy Rain Hits C Argentina Again

Argentinas wheat and corn crops continue to be effected by wet weather. Battered by record rainfall (heaviest in 56 years) during August, September and October, downgrades are starting to show. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today reduced the wheat crop to 11.1 million tonnes, down from 11.5, and corn acreage to 4.7 million hectares, down from 4.97. 50% of the corn crop is now planted, down 12% points from last year due to the wetness. Soy acreage remains at 19.7 hectares with 36.6% planted, lagging last year by 9.7%. The soybean crop is still estimated at a record 55-58 million tons if the weather co-operates.

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On the bright side, planting of corn and soybeans accelerated last week as rare, dry weather was seen, but according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange the corn and soybean planting pace lags 12 and 10% percentage points respectively compared to last year. Record El Nino-Neutral rains fell across Northern Buenos Aires and Southern Santa Fe this Spring, breaking a 56 year old record for the region! Three times normal seasonal rainfall fell for the period.

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Record Aug-Sep-Oct rains have hit three key agricultural districts of Santa Fe and Buenos Aires, injuring wheat, limiting corn acreage and slowing new season plantings. There is still time for soy planting for another 30-45 days if the weather co-operates.

Todays weather maps

About Allen Motew

Allen Motew has been an expert weather analyst for more than 35 years. With a Seal of Approval for Broadcasters from the American Meteorological Society, Allen specializes in global weather prediction, synoptic scale and mesonet analysis, and severe weather events. He is trained in forecasting hurricanes, tropical cyclones and international weather events for government and private industry interests from around the globe. A Chicago native, Allen broadcasts his local, domestic and international commodity weather forecasts from the Chicago

Earlier this month, record rainfall hurt wheat and early corn prospects across Argentinas bread basket in southern Cordoba/Santa Fe/Entre Rios and N Buenos Aires (red). Superior forage and crop conditions (green) show elsewhere.

Heavy rains reached the southern Pampas once again on Wednesday, bringing 2-3+ inches to the region. A halt to corn and soybean sowing is anticipated until fields dry.

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Thursday rain accumulations Yesterdayrains lightened across S and E Argentina as they moved northward across Argentina.. Amounts were less than anticipated in the NE, with the heaviest moving over E Paraguay (mm shown)
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Clouds are starting to break across soggy Argentina as the frontal storminess is now in E Paraguay and S Brazil. An important dry period will be seen across Argentina for at least the next 5-6 days, allowing the soggiest fields to recover and dry.

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QT In formation Systems
Chicago Board of Trade 141 W. Jackson Blvd., Suite 1255 800.240.8761 ph 312-896-2050 fax www.qtweather.com www.qtinfo.com

The next significant rain threat for Argentina is at least a week away, thankfully missing the soggy fields of the East at that time. Rains potentially return to the soggiest areas for days 8 and 9.

Rains over the next 7 days

Allen Motew