FLUJO DE CAJA

ESCENARIO

PROB
1
2
3
4
5
6

F/C t

pxF/C
20
50
90
35
40
90
325

FC t - E(FC) (FC t - E(FC))^2

-125
15625
-75
5625
-25
625
25
625
75
5625
125
15625
VAR (FC)1
DESV EST (FC)1

60
70
40
42
44
138
394

FC t - E(FC) (FC t - E(FC))^2

-94
8836
-44
1936
6
36
26
676
46
2116
66
4356
VAR (FC)2
DESV EST (FC)2

450
500
550
600
650
700

90
100
55
60
65
210
580

FC t - E(FC) (FC t - E(FC))^2

-130
16900
-80
6400
-30
900
20
400
70
4900
120
14400
VAR (FC)3
DESV EST (FC)3

1
325000

2
394000

0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2

200
250
300
350
400
450
E(F/C) 1

ESCENARIO

PROB
1
2
3
4
5
6

F/C t

p x FC

0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3

300
350
400
420
440
460
E(F/C) 2

ESCENARIO

PROB
1
2
3
4
5
6

F/C t

p x FC

0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
E(F/C) 3

VALOR ESPERADO DEL VPN

0
E(F/C)
-850000
tasa dcto
0.15
E(VPN)
111,888.72

3
580000

Se asume independencia entre proyectos

ao
DESV EST
VARIANZA VALOR PRE
2 81.39410298
6625
5,009.45
4 61.18823416
3744
2,140.64
6 97.97958971
9600
4,150.34
VA
11,300.44
DE(VPN)
106,303.53
El resultado anterior nos indica que la variabilidad o disperison promedio
alrededor del valor esperado del VPN es 106,303532. aprox.
Dados los resultados anteriores se puede hallar LA PROBABILIDAD DE
PERDER EL PROYECTO. Es decir de que el VPN<0
Si asumimos que el VAN es una v.a. con distribucion normal.
Primero, estandarizar la variable
Luego, hallamos la probabilidad requerida
z= [VPN-E(VPN)]/DE(VPN)

z= [VPN-111888,72)]/106,303532
PROB (VPN<0) = PROB[(VPN-111888,72)/106,303532 < (0-111888,72)/106,303532]
PROB(Z<
-1.0525
prob (vpn<0) =

14.63%

p x (FC t - E(FC))^2
1562.5
1125
187.5
62.5
562.5
3125
6625
81.39410298

p x (FC t - E(FC))^2
1767.2
387.2
3.6
67.6
211.6
1306.8
3744
61.18823416

p x (FC t - E(FC))^2
3380
1280
90
40
490
4320
9600
97.97958971

DOS PROYECTOS
PROYECTO A

LIMONES, UVAS Y MANGOS

LIMONES
ESCENARIO FC2
1
2
3

PROB
45
65
30

p x FC2
0.2
0.6
0.2

E(FC)2

escenario

FC4
1
2
3

PROB
35
55
60

p x FC3
0.4
0.4
0.2

14
22
12
48

1
50

2
54

E(FC4)

FC
E(VAN)
TASA DSCTO

0
-150
S/. 48.99
0.1

FC - E(FC)
9
39
6
54

-9
11
-24

FC - E(FC) (FC - E(FC))^2

-13
169
7
49
12
144
VAR
DES. EST
3
60

Se asume perfecta correlacion

ao
desv esta
var
DE present
1
0
0
0
2 14.2828569
204
S/. 11.80
3
0
0
S/. 0.00
4 10.7703296
116
S/. 7.36
5
0
0
S/. 0.00
DE (VAN)
19.160294

UVAS

(FC - E(FC))^2
81
121
576
var
desv esta

4
48

PX (FC - E(FC))^2
16.2
72.6
115.2
204
14.28285686
PX (FC - E(FC))^2
67.6
19.6
28.8
116
10.77032961
5
50

EARTHILIZER
0
0.1
0.674
0.326
0.1

VENTAS
COSTO DE V
UTI BRUTA
gastos operativos
costo fijo
EBITDA
DEPRE
EBIT

0.3 NOPAT
DEPRE
CAPEX
0.25 VAR CTN
VR
FCL
tasa de descto
VAN
tir

-330000
-250000

-580000
0.1325
33,172.03
0.15

2008
1
1000000
674000
326000
100000
115000
111000
33000
78000

2009
2
1100000
741400
358600
110000
115000
133600
33000
100600

2010
3
1210000
815540
394460
121000
115000
158460
33000
125460

2011
4
1331000
897094
433906
133100
115000
185806
33000
152806

54600
33000

70420
33000

87822
33000

106964.2
33000

-25000

-27500

-30250

-33275

62600

75920

90572

106689.2

-275000
250000
-25000

-302500
275000
-27500

-332750
302500
-30250

-366025
332750
-33275

REQUERIMIENTO DEL CTN

NECESITO
DEVUELVO
VAR CTN

-250000
0
-250000

solucion ene l titman, pagina 69

2012
5
1464100
986803.4
477296.6
146410
115000
215886.6
33000
182886.6
128020.62
33000
366025
165000
692045.62

0
366025
366025

Inverison Inicial
CTN
EQUIPOS
vida util
Depre anual
V. SALVAMENTO
valor en libro

250000
330000
10 aos
33000
0
165000

Simulation - New Simulation

General
Number of Trials
Stop Simulation on Error
Random Seed
Enable Correlations

10000
No
Random
Yes

Assumptions
Name
D4: VENTAS(Incremento anual del 10%)
Enabled
Yes
Cell
$D$4
Dynamic Simulation
No

Name
Enabled
Cell
Dynamic Simulation

Range
Minimum
Maximum

Range
Minimum
Maximum

Distribution
Minimum
Maximum

Name
Enabled
Cell
Dynamic Simulation
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Distribution
Minimum
Most Likely
Maximum

-Infinito
Infinito
Uniform
500000
1500000

A7: EARTHILIZER
Yes
$A$7
No

-Infinito
Infinito
Triangular
0.05
0.1
0.15

Distribution
Minimum
Most Likely
Maximum

Name
Enabled
Cell
Dynamic Simulation

A4: EARTHILIZER
Yes
$A$4
No

-Infinito
Infinito
Triangular
-0.1
0.1
0.3

H17: VR
Yes
$H$17
No

Range
Minimum
Maximum

-Infinito
Infinito

Distribution
Minimum
Maximum

Uniform
82500
247500

Forecasts
Name
Enabled
Cell
Forecast Precision
Precision Level
Error Level

Name
Enabled
Cell
Forecast Precision
Precision Level
Error Level

VAN
Yes
$C$21

-----

tir
Yes
$C$22

-----

Number of Datapoints
Mean
Median
Standard Deviation
Variance
Coefficient of Variation
Maximum
Minimum
Range
Skewness
Kurtosis
25% Percentile
75% Percentile
Error Precision at 95%

10000
72622.3150
57316.8360
143767.9435
20669221586.1785
1.9797
704077.0550
-266474.1605
970551.2155
0.5228
-0.0952
-37758.3051
166946.3621
0.0388

Number of Datapoints
Mean
Median
Standard Deviation
Variance
Coefficient of Variation
Maximum
Minimum
Range
Skewness
Kurtosis
25% Percentile
75% Percentile
Error Precision at 95%

10000
0.1627
0.1606
0.0670
0.0045
0.4119
0.4151
-0.0303
0.4454
0.2136
-0.3642
0.1131
0.2093
0.0081

Name
Enabled
Cell
Dynamic Simulation
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Distribution
Minimum
Most Likely
Maximum

A6: EARTHILIZER
Yes
$A$6
No

-Infinito
Infinito
Triangular
0.28
0.326
0.4

Correlation Matrix

D4: VENTAS(Incremento anual del 10%)

A4: EARTHILIZER
A6: EARTHILIZER
A7: EARTHILIZER
4: VENTAS(Incremento anual del 10%)
1.00
A4: EARTHILIZER
0.00
1.00
A6: EARTHILIZER
0.00
0.00
1.00
A7: EARTHILIZER
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
H17: VR
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

H17: VR

1.00

EARTHILIZER
0
0.1
0.674
0.326
0.1

VENTAS
COSTO DE V
UTI BRUTA
gastos operativos
costo fijo
EBITDA
DEPRE
EBIT

0.3 NOPAT
DEPRE
CAPEX
0.25 VAR CTN
VR
recuper CTN
FCL
tasa de descto
VAN
tir

-330000
-250000

-580000
0.1325
33,172.03
0.15

2008
1
1000000
674000
326000
100000
115000
111000
33000
78000

2009
2
1100000
741400
358600
110000
115000
133600
33000
100600

2010
3
1210000
815540
394460
121000
115000
158460
33000
125460

2011
4
1331000
897094
433906
133100
115000
185806
33000
152806

54600
33000

70420
33000

87822
33000

106964.2
33000

-25000

-27500

-30250

-33275

62600

75920

90572

106689.2

-275000
250000
-25000

-302500
275000
-27500

-332750
302500
-30250

-366025
332750
-33275

REQUERIMIENTO DEL CTN

NECESITO
DEVUELVO
VAR CTN

-250000
0
-250000

solucion ene l titman, pagina 69

2012
5
1464100
986803.4
477296.6
146410
115000
215886.6
33000
182886.6

Inverison Inicial
CTN
250000
EQUIPOS
330000
vida util
10 aos
Depre anual
33000
V. SALVAMENTO
0
valor en libro
165000

128020.62
33000
366025
165000
692045.62

0
366025
366025

ANALISIS PUNTO MUERTO

TABLA QUE NOS PIDEN
tasa de crecimiento de ventas
margen utilidad bruta
gastos operativos
tasa impuestos
ctn ventas
ventas ao base 2008

valor esperado
10%
33%
10%
30%
25%
1,000,000.00

valor critico

variacion %
6%
-0.373
31% -0.03496933
11%
0.114
38% 0.26033333
31%
0.2404

936,380.00

variacion dif
-4%
-1%
1%
8%
6%

-0.06362 - 63,620.00

tener cuidado, cuando se cambia las variable,s porq afecta en las utilidades.