Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Page
Banks 3
Basic Resources 8
Chemicals 11
Healthcare 22
Insurance 30
Media 33
Real Estate 42
Technology 51
Telecom 55
Utilities 60
Contacts 63
Disclosures 65
Banks
1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap Price Recommendation Performance (EUR terms)
Curr. Current Target
Company (EURmn) (LC) 1M 3M 6M 12M
Aik Banka AD Nis RSD 190 2,483.0 Under review 19.6% -31.5% -71.5% -76.6%
Banca Transilvania RON 220 0.890 u.r. Accumulate -68.7% -71.5% -74.9% -81.2%
Bank Pekao PLN 6,395 107.9 184.0 Hold -18.0% -15.9% -55.0% -54.1%
BRD - Group SG RON 1,097 6.8 Accumulate -24.5% -29.6% -70.2% -69.9%
BRE Bank PLN 935 139.5 410.0 Hold -33.7% -20.4% -73.6% -68.6%
BZ WBK PLN 1,377 83.5 165.0 Hold -29.0% -24.6% -58.4% -61.0%
FHB HUF 143 628.0 1,200.0 Hold -18.2% -11.8% -57.0% -62.6%
Komercijalna Banka RSD 237 25,900.0 u.r. Reduce 8.0% -33.4% -67.2% -74.4%
Komercni banka CZK 3,117 2,306.0 4,700.0 Accumulate -28.1% -22.5% -50.4% -33.4%
OTP HUF 2,166 2,240.0 3,300.0 Hold -30.0% -20.7% -74.5% -73.1%
PKO BP PLN 6,408 28.4 55.0 Accumulate -23.6% -6.5% -56.4% -45.0%
Raiffeisen International EUR 2,159 14.0 30.0 Accumulate -29.0% -47.3% -83.6% -81.9%
Unicredit SpA EUR - Euro
16,714 - - - -24.9% -32.8% -68.4% -74.9%
KBC Groupe SA EUR - Euro4,664 - - - -41.9% -54.2% -81.9% -85.9%
Svenska Handelsbanken AB SEK - Swedish
5,405Krona - - - -21.1% -33.7% -46.4% -54.8%
Erste Group Bank AG EUR - Euro3,249 - - - -30.7% -42.4% -75.7% -73.4%
Societe Generale EUR - Euro
15,825 - - - -18.8% -39.4% -55.5% -60.5%
Euro Stoxx Banks 263,833 - - - -20.2% -38.2% -61.1% -65.5%
P/E P/BV Div yield
2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e
Aik Banka AD Nis 15.5 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4% 2.2% 2.3% 2.7%
Banca Transilvania 15.7 1.5 2.2 1.7 4.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bank Pekao 19.5 5.8 6.6 6.1 4.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 4.0% 10.3% 10.5% 13.2%
BRD - Group SG 17.8 2.8 3.1 2.5 6.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 2.3% 14.2% 12.7% 15.4%
BRE Bank 22.1 3.1 3.4 3.5 4.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
BZ WBK 20.2 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1% 6.3% 8.4% 11.0%
FHB 22.9 5.2 5.4 5.4 3.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8%
Komercijalna Banka 25.1 9.7 6.9 4.3 4.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Komercni banka 15.5 6.2 6.2 5.9 3.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 3.9% 9.6% 9.7% 10.1%
OTP 11.0 1.5 4.4 4.9 2.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0% 7.5% 4.9% 4.5%
PKO BP 19.1 6.0 5.9 5.4 4.4 1.9 1.7 1.4 2.0% 6.6% 6.8% 7.4%
Raiffeisen International 17.9 2.2 3.1 3.6 2.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Median CEE 18.5 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6% 5.0% 4.3% 4.6%
Unicredit SpA 9.2 4.5 4.4 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 20.8% 0.0% 8.8% 10.8%
KBC Groupe SA 11.3 3.3 2.7 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 30.9% 0.0% 12.3% 14.4%
Svenska Handelsbanken AB 8.3 6.0 6.2 5.8 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 16.5% 8.4% 9.2% 9.2%
Erste Group Bank AG 12.4 3.0 3.7 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 7.3% 7.3% 5.4% 6.3%
Societe Generale 46.6 6.6 5.2 4.5 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 3.3% 4.1% 7.7% 9.7%
Median 11.3 5.2 4.4 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 16.5% 4.1% 8.8% 9.7%
Euro Stoxx Banks 11.7 5.2 5.2 4.9 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 3.9% 5.3% 6.7% 7.5%
CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 64% -24% 3% 1% 134% 184% 163% 120% -96% 22% -51% -53%
52 weeks
Bank Pekao latest
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007* 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 220
Net interest inc. 1,101.0 847.7 1,122.7 1,142.4 1,134.9 3.1% 200
Net provisions -78.0 -44.7 -50.3 -71.6 -37.6 -51.8% 180
160
Net commissions 756.5 556.3 610.9 618.7 559.2 -26.1%
140
Op. expenses -923.5 -862.4 -929.2 -964.4 -944.8 2.3%
120
Operating profit 1,091.9 672.9 1,361.3 990.5 1,027.6 -5.9%
100
Pre-tax profit 1,128.7 672.9 1,398.7 1,021.3 1,052.1 -6.8% 80
Net profit 932.6 561.8 1,137.5 829.7 841.4 -9.8% 60
Bank Pekao
NIM 3.52% 3.39% 3.64% 3.74% 3.65% 0.13%p WIG 20 (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)
52 weeks
BRD GSG latest
(RON mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 24
Net interest inc. 285.0 400.0 321.0 313.0 325.0 14.0% 22
20
Net provisions -68.0 -135.0 -62.0 -89.0 -75.0 10.3%
18
Net commissions 256.0 308.0 283.0 305.0 316.0 23.4% 16
Op. expenses -257.0 -360.0 -308.0 -324.0 n.a. n.a. 14
12
Operating profit 318.0 279.0 320.0 299.0 n.a. n.a.
10
Pre-tax profit 318.0 279.0 320.0 299.0 628.0 97.5% 8
Net profit 265.0 235.0 259.0 256.0 524.0 97.7% 6
BRD - Group SG
CIR 40.0% 45.6% 44.6% 45.5% n.a. n.a. BET (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)
52 weeks
BRE Bank latest
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 450
Net interest inc. 267.8 291.1 315.3 326.9 364.0 35.9% 400
Net provisions -34.8 -36.2 -22.2 -45.6 -70.8 103.5% 350
Net commissions 139.0 135.7 150.4 155.0 147.2 5.9% 300
Op. expenses -313.8 -437.0 -422.5 -388.2 -377.0 20.1% 250
Operating profit 219.2 204.7 284.6 219.8 260.2 18.7% 200
Pre-tax profit 219.2 204.7 427.6 293.4 260.2 18.7% 150
Net profit 164.3 142.0 350.8 289.5 202.5 23.3% 100
NIM 2.13% 2.16% 2.16% 2.09% 2.20% 0.07%p BRE Bank WIG 20 (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)
52 weeks
FHB latest
(HUF mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 1.800
Net interest inc. 4,150 4,035 4,137 4,102 4,243 2.2% 1.600
Net provisions -130 -285 -205 -441 -244 88.2% 1.400
Net commissions 184 819 469 424 429 133.6% 1.200
Op. expenses -3,399 -3,935 -3,042 -3,054 -3,025 -11.0% 1.000
Operating profit 1,455 1,810 3,232 1,722 2,471 69.9% 800
Pre-tax profit 1,455 1,810 3,232 1,722 2,471 69.9% 600
Net profit 1,320 1,209 2,326 1,134 1,601 21.3% 400
NIM 2.83% 2.67% 2.64% 2.59% 2.61% -0.22%p FHB BUX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)
52 weeks
Komercijalna banka latest
(RSD mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 100.000
90.000
Net interest inc. 1,361.3 1,179.9 1,388.0 1,543.8 1,532.2 12.6%
80.000
Net provisions -246.6 1,585.9 -94.0 -125.8 256.0 n.a. 70.000
Net commissions 721.4 742.0 725.0 765.2 734.9 1.9% 60.000
50.000
Op. expenses -1,602.2 -2,168.2 -1,717.0 -1,757.2 n.a. n.a.
40.000
Operating profit 409.9 1,604.0 401.0 879.6 786.3 91.8% 30.000
Pre-tax profit 409.9 1,604.0 401.0 879.6 786.3 91.8% 20.000
10.000
Net profit n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Komercijalna Banka
BELEX 15 (Rebased)
CIR 70.9% 99.2% 77.7% 63.6% n.a. n.a. DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)
52 weeks
Komercni banka latest
(CZK mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 4.500
Net interest inc. 4,781 4,971 5,074 5,236 5,276 10.4% 4.000
Net provisions -267 -281 -458 -452 -729 173.0% 3.500
52 weeks
Raiffeisen International latest
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 120
110
Net interest inc. 625.0 715.1 711.1 786.5 844.1 35.1% 100
Net provisions -88.8 -114.9 -93.0 -108.3 -164.2 84.9% 90
80
Net commissions 322.8 354.8 330.8 372.0 394.9 22.3% 70
60
Op. expenses -535.0 -646.3 -584.4 -665.5 -689.7 28.9% 50
Operating profit 346.8 284.2 369.6 473.1 418.3 20.6% 40
30
Pre-tax profit 346.8 284.2 369.6 473.1 418.3 20.6% 20
Net profit 224.3 215.6 254.4 311.3 295.8 31.9% 10
Raiffeisen International
ATX (Rebased)
NIM 3.84% 4.08% 3.81% 4.00% 4.02% 0.18%p DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)
Basic Resources
1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap Price Recommendation Performance (EUR terms)
Curr. Current Target
Company (EURmn) (LC) 1M 3M 6M 12M
KGHM PLN 1,243 27.5 74.0 Hold -7.3% 7.9% -75.8% -73.7%
Mayr-Melnhof EUR 1,100 50.0 57.0 Hold 1.4% 0.6% -12.9% -23.7%
RHI EUR 446 11.9 19.0 Buy 9.2% -26.1% -60.3% -49.0%
Teak Holz Int. EUR 16 2.6 4.5 Accumulate -0.8% -33.2% -48.2% -62.4%
voestalpine EUR 2,301 14.5 u.r. Accumulate -3.2% -12.7% -66.2% -65.6%
Sub Steel 25,731 - - - - - - -
Sub Metals & Mining 172,871 - - - - - - -
Sub Pulp & Paper 8,996 - - - - - - -
Total Peer Group 207,598 - - - - - - -
EuroStoxx Basic Resources - 57,248 - - - -5.6% -11.7% -59.7% -51.0%
52 weeks
RHI latest
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 40
35
Sales 367.10 386.70 394.60 415.00 414.10 12.8%
30
EBITDA 54.70 55.70 58.90 63.80 62.20 13.7%
25
EBIT 42.00 41.50 46.60 51.20 49.90 18.8%
20
Net profit 27.90 28.90 33.80 36.30 36.40 30.5% 15
EBITDA margin 14.9% 14.4% 14.9% 15.4% 15.0% 10
EBIT margin 11.4% 10.7% 11.8% 12.3% 12.1% 5
Net margin 7.6% 7.5% 8.6% 8.7% 8.8% RHI ATX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Basic Resources (Rebased)
52 weeks
Teak Holz International latest
11
(EUR mn) 3Q06/07 4Q06/07 1Q07/08 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 y/y
10
Sales 0.08 -0.63 0.07 0.02 0.14 90.8% 9
EBITDA -1.80 23.21 -0.48 -0.40 -0.40 -77.5% 8
7
EBIT -1.81 23.19 -0.50 -0.44 -0.43 -76.0% 6
Net profit -1.82 23.30 -0.59 -0.56 -0.43 -76.5% 5
4
EBITDA margin - - - - - 3
EBIT margin - - - - - 2
Teak Holz Int.
Net margin - - - - - ATX Prime (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Basic Resources (Rebased)
52 weeks
voestalpine latest
(EUR mn) 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 4Q07/08 1Q08/09 2Q08/09 y/y 70
Chemicals
1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap Price Recommendation Performance (EUR terms)
Curr. Current Target
Company (EURmn) (LC) 1M 3M 6M 12M
PannErgy* HUF 51 700.0 1,559.0 Hold -8.9% -13.1% -52.1% -58.2%
Pegas Nonwovens EUR 79 240.0 505.0 Hold -1.0% 1.4% -41.6% -66.2%
Synthos PLN 123 0.41 0.56 Hold -15.5% -45.3% -58.6% -69.1%
EuroStoxx Chemicals EUR 104,658 - - - -5.1% -7.1% -38.2% -32.7%
*PannErgy is in transition, changing its profile from a specialized chemicals company to alternative energy.
52 weeks
Pegas Nowovens latest
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 900
800
Sales 30.0 31.2 37.78 37.59 35.42 18.1%
700
EBITDA 9.3 8.3 10.48 10.48 9.74 4.7% 600
EBIT 6.2 5.1 6.41 6.41 5.39 -13.1% 500
400
Net profit 9.8 9.7 11.6 11.6 0.3 -97.2%
300
EBITDA margin 31.0% 26.6% 27.7% 27.9% 27.5% 200
EBIT margin 20.7% 16.3% 17.0% 17.1% 15.2% 100
Pegas Nonwovens PX (Rebased) DJ STOXX Chemicals (Rebased)
Net margin 32.7% 31.1% 30.6% 30.8% 0.8%
52 weeks
Synthos latest
1,4
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
1,3
Sales 646.22 555.96 725.71 718.94 731.12 13.1% 1,2
1,1
EBITDA 54.92 9.85 74.88 86.18 85.87 56.3% 1,0
EBIT 21.56 -22.99 43.39 53.90 56.04 159.9% 0,9
0,8
Net profit 406.63 33.19 32.97 54.42 41.68 -89.7% 0,7
0,6
EBITDA margin 8.5% 1.8% 10.3% 12.0% 11.7%
0,5
EBIT margin 3.3% -4.1% 6.0% 7.5% 7.7% 0,4
Synthos WIG (Rebased) DJ STOXX Chemicals (Rebased)
Net margin 62.9% 6.0% 4.5% 7.6% 5.7%
52 weeks
Cersanit latest
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 35
52 weeks
Koelner latest
40
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
35
Sales 167.70 135.10 155.3 163.20 173.10 3.2%
30
EBITDA 20.00 -2.60 19.5 9.20 19.90 -0.5%
25
EBIT 14.40 -6.80 13.7 3.80 13.40 -6.9%
20
Net profit 8.00 -20.30 3.4 -8.40 4.50 -43.8% 15
EBITDA margin 11.9% -1.9% 12.6% 5.6% 11.5% 10
EBIT margin 8.6% -5.0% 8.8% 2.3% 7.7% 5
Koelner
Net margin 4.8% -15.0% 2.2% -5.1% 2.6% WIG (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Construction & Material (Rebased)
52 weeks
PBG latest
340
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 320
Sales 350.68 577.26 307.30 506.30 543.20 54.9% 300
280
EBITDA 31.71 55.15 29.80 62.10 69.00 117.6% 260
240
EBIT 23.81 44.95 20.60 51.50 57.80 142.8% 220
200
Net profit 21.49 39.48 20.70 26.40 34.50 60.5% 180
EBITDA margin 9.0% 9.6% 9.7% 12.3% 12.7% 160
140
EBIT margin 6.8% 7.8% 6.7% 10.2% 10.6% 120
PBG S.A.
Net margin 6.1% 6.8% 6.7% 5.2% 6.4% WIG (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Construction & Material (Rebased)
52 weeks
Polimex latest
9
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
8
Sales 934.78 1253.49 920.72 1111.44 1086.00 16.2%
7
EBITDA 42.00 64.31 75.40 72.54 86.00 104.8% 6
EBIT 30.80 51.41 59.70 54.54 65.00 111.0% 5
Net profit 21.64 28.66 29.76 27.93 33.30 53.9% 4
EBITDA margin 4.5% 5.1% 8.2% 6.5% 7.9% 3
52 weeks
Wienerberger latest
40
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
35
Sales 662.0 588.0 574.0 689.66 363.20 -45.1%
30
EBITDA 167.5 127.1 92.3 143.30 111.70 -33.3%
25
EBIT 117.8 68.8 42.6 87.58 51.40 -56.4% 20
Net profit 85.6 51.0 21.8 58.85 25.80 -69.9% 15
EBITDA margin 25.3% 21.6% 16.1% 20.8% 30.8% 10
EBIT margin 17.8% 11.7% 7.4% 12.7% 14.2% 5
Wienerberger
ATX (Rebased)
Net margin 12.9% 8.7% 3.8% 8.5% 7.1% DJ EURO STOXX Construction & Material (Rebased)
52 weeks
Ambra latest
(PLN mn) 1Q07/08 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 4Q07/08 1Q08/09 y/y 11
10
Sales 94.3 276.6 82.6 93.8 105.0 11.4% 9
8
EBITDA -0.1 42.7 -8.8 -9.1 5.3 n.a. 7
EBIT -3.0 39.8 -11.8 -12.2 2.3 n.a. 6
5
Net profit -6.6 21.8 -12.6 -11.3 -1.8 -72.7% 4
EBITDA margin -0.1% 15.4% -10.7% -9.7% 5.0% 3
2
EBIT margin -3.2% 14.4% -14.3% -13.0% 2.2% 1
Ambra
Net margin -7.0% 7.9% -15.3% -12.0% -2% WIG (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Food & Beverage (Rebased)
52 weeks
CEDC latest
(USD mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 80
52 weeks
Duda latest
7
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
Sales 340.80 368.60 318.30 343.5 382.1 12.1% 6
52 weeks
Graal latest
35
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
30
Sales 84.30 95.40 91.10 87.3 89.1 5.7%
EBITDA 13.00 16.60 8.50 7.1 8.0 -38.5% 25
52 weeks
Jutrzenka latest
8
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
7
Sales 122.80 145.90 118.90 118.8 140.9 14.7%
6
EBITDA 8.10 0.60 9.40 1.1 14.2 75.3%
5
EBIT 4.20 -4.40 4.30 -4.1 7.5 78.6%
4
Net profit 2.30 -5.70 1.70 -5.4 4.3 87.0% 3
EBITDA margin 6.6% 0.4% 7.9% 0.9% 10.1% 2
EBIT margin 3.4% -3.0% 3.6% -3.5% 5.3% 1
Jutrzenka
Net margin 1.9% -3.9% 1.4% -4.5% 3.1% WIG (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Food & Beverage (Rebased)
52 weeks
Podravka latest
(HRK mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 20071 Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 550
500
Sales 941.71 906.41 784.12 924.83 980.63 4.1%
450
EBITDA 72.20 39.72 71.23 70.39 90.72 25.6% 400
EBIT 32.06 -0.27 34.13 31.50 51.30 60.0% 350
Healthcare
1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap Price Recommendation Performance (EUR terms)
Curr. Current Target
Company (EURmn) (LC) 1M 3M 6M 12M
A&D Pharma EUR 75.0 2.3 3.2 Hold -24.5% -16.7% -2.2% -80.4%
Bioton PLN 138.3 0.20 Under review -2.4% -55.5% -66.5% -82.1%
Egis HUF 327.3 12,170.0 18,800.0 Buy 10.7% 16.2% -32.6% -38.9%
Intercell EUR 1,151.9 25.3 39.5 Buy 17.7% 21.9% -15.7% 12.4%
Krka EUR 1,906.3 53.8 118.5 Buy 16.9% -21.1% -40.9% -52.3%
Richter Gedeon HUF 1,905.5 29,600.0 38,770.0 Buy -2.9% 3.0% -26.6% -28.7%
Sanochemia EUR 25.2 2.5 Under review 2.5% -43.1% -61.2% -68.2%
Zentiva CZK 1,521.5 1,122.0 1,150.0 Hold -2.4% -7.5% -11.2% 27.5%
Teva Pharmaceutical ILS - Israeli
29,214
Shekel - - - 10.4% 3.2% 12.2% 8.0%
Mylan Inc. USD - US 2,604
Dollar - - - 26.8% 73.9% 1.0% -13.8%
Watson Pharmaceuticals USD - US 2,066
Dollar - - - 12.9% 16.4% 4.2% 10.1%
Stada Arzmeimittel AG EUR - Euro1,086 - - - -0.1% -4.5% -60.4% -56.4%
Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc USD - US 5,630
Dollar - - - 9.9% 10.8% 21.3% 46.3%
Ranbaxy Laboratories INR - Indian
1,251
Rupee - - - -6.6% 0.2% -59.0% -53.2%
Recordati EUR - Euro 777 - - - -9.2% 0.3% -19.2% -31.9%
EuroStoxx Healthcare 116,670 - - - 5.8% 1.1% -13.0% -19.6%
P/E P/CE P/BV
2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e
A&D Pharma n.m. 30.0 11.0 6.6 n.m. 6.1 4.4 3.3 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.3
Bioton 89.8 25.1 12.8 8.6 51.8 9.8 7.6 5.8 2.8 0.6 0.6 0.5
Egis 23.5 5.8 7.6 6.8 12.7 3.8 4.6 4.4 1.7 0.7 0.8 0.7
Intercell 218.5 118.7 100.8 28.2 162.3 95.3 82.2 26.3 4.7 3.7 3.6 3.2
Krka 33.2 11.7 9.7 8.2 20.9 8.5 7.3 6.4 6.6 2.4 2.0 1.6
Richter Gedeon 23.1 11.9 11.3 10.0 14.4 7.8 7.5 6.8 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.3
Sanochemia n.m. 20.3 9.5 3.2 n.m. 5.0 3.8 2.1 1.8 0.4 0.4 0.4
Zentiva 27.4 24.9 17.7 13.8 13.8 12.2 10.2 8.5 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.5
Median CEE 25.5 22.6 11.2 8.4 14.1 8.2 7.4 6.1 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.0
Teva Pharmaceutical 20.2 16.0 14.7 11.8 28.7 17.9 13.7 12.1 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.7
Mylan Inc. 9.3 18.1 10.9 7.8 10.2 8.2 5.7 7.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9
Watson Pharmaceuticals 21.1 13.7 12.1 11.5 8.0 8.5 8.1 8.0 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.0
Stada Arzmeimittel AG 8.2 9.0 8.0 7.1 5.3 6.0 5.1 4.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9
Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc 23.5 24.5 15.7 16.4 17.4 23.6 18.8 16.2 5.5 3.6 3.0 2.6
Ranbaxy Laboratories 8.9 711.6 16.3 10.7 6.4 48.8 10.1 7.2 2.3 1.4 1.2 1.1
Recordati 9.0 7.8 7.3 8.5 6.7 6.1 6.0 6.8 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4
Median Peer Group 9.3 16.0 12.1 10.7 8.0 8.5 8.1 7.2 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.1
EuroStoxx Healthcare 14.4 14.8 13.4 12.0 10.0 10.1 9.0 8.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5
CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 175% 41% -8% -22% 76% -4% -9% -15% 34% -28% -10% -10%
EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Dividend yield
2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e
A&D Pharma 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 35.8 5.8 4.9 4.2 0.7% 0.7% 1.8% 3.0%
Bioton 10.9 2.3 2.4 2.1 24.3 8.4 8.1 6.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Egis 1.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 11.9 4.2 3.9 3.4 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0%
Intercell 17.3 18.5 9.9 6.2 272.3 -110.7 71.3 18.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Krka 5.8 2.1 1.8 1.5 19.0 7.1 6.0 5.2 0.7% 2.2% 2.7% 3.3%
Richter Gedeon 3.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 12.8 6.9 6.4 5.5 1.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.9%
Sanochemia 2.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 -48.5 2.6 1.7 0.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Zentiva 3.3 2.7 2.6 2.4 15.5 11.2 9.4 7.8 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3%
Median CEE 3.3 2.0 1.7 1.5 17.2 6.4 6.2 5.4 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2%
Teva Pharmaceutical 4.2 3.1 2.8 2.4 13.5 11.1 10.7 8.2 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%
Mylan Inc. 3.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 11.6 7.6 6.0 5.6 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Watson Pharmaceuticals 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 6.7 5.8 5.0 4.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stada Arzmeimittel AG 2.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 10.8 7.4 6.1 5.6 3.8% 3.8% 4.4% 5.1%
Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc 4.8 3.1 2.7 2.6 15.4 15.2 11.7 14.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ranbaxy Laboratories 2.9 1.6 1.2 1.0 21.4 13.8 9.9 5.6 5.0% 3.6% 3.4% 3.9%
Recordati 2.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 8.7 5.2 4.5 4.8 5.8% 6.4% 6.8% 6.7%
Median Peer Group 2.9 1.6 1.2 1.1 11.6 7.6 6.1 5.6 1.4% 1.0% 1.1% 2.5%
EuroStoxx Healthcare 3.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 11.7 8.8 8.0 7.2 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5%
CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 13% 20% 46% 37% 48% -16% 1% -5% -56% -23% -5% -53%
52 weeks
Bioton latest
1,2
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 1,1
Sales 89.4 69.8 90.7 75.0 67.4 -24.6% 1,0
0,9
EBITDA 25.6 12.8 44.7 -9.9 1.5 -94.3% 0,8
0,7
EBIT 21.3 7.6 38.8 -15.1 -4.4 n.a. 0,6
0,5
Net profit 10.3 -42.9 4.7 -23.0 -18.9 n.a. 0,4
EBITDA margin 28.7% 18.3% 49.3% -13.2% 2.2% 0,3
0,2
EBIT margin 23.8% 10.9% 42.8% -20.2% -6.5% 0,1
Bioton
Net margin 11.5% -61.5% 5.2% -30.7% -28.0% WIG 20 (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Health Care (Rebased)
52 weeks
Egis latest
20.000
(HUF mn) 4Q06/07 1Q07/08 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 4Q07/08 y/y
18.000
Sales 23,067 24,527 24,206 23,000 24,275 5.2%
EBITDA 3,256 4,221 3,863 3,673 4,262 30.9% 16.000
Net margin 10.8% 11.4% 12.6% 9.7% 24.2% Egis BUX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Health Care (Rebased)
52 weeks
Intercell latest
35
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
30
Revenues 7.4 40.8 8.6 9.0 7.6 3.6%
25
EBITDA -6.3 25.2 -4.7 -5.7 -7.9 25.6%
EBIT -6.8 24.7 -5.2 -6.2 -8.6 27.9% 20
Net margin -88% 66% -54% -45% -67% Intercell ATX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Health Care (Rebased)
52 weeks
Krka latest
120
(EUR mn) 3Q2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 110
Sales 178.4 210.0 244.4 224.9 218.7 22.6% 100
90
EBITDA 59.2 62.4 78.8 62.9 61.0 3.1% 80
EBIT 45.2 46.8 62.7 45.7 43.3 -4.1% 70
60
Net profit 29.5 35.0 44.1 34.2 32.5 10.1%
50
EBITDA margin 33.2% 29.7% 32.3% 28.0% 27.9% -15.9% 40
30
EBIT margin 25.3% 22.3% 25.7% 20.3% 19.8%
Krka SBI (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Health Care (Rebased)
Net margin 16.6% 16.7% 18.0% 15.2% 14.9%
52 weeks
Richter Gedeon latest
40.000
(HUF mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
Sales 56,519 56,320 57,026 57,808 56,534 0.0% 35.000
52 weeks
Zentiva latest
1.200
(CZK mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
1.100
Sales 4,330.7 5,543.0 4,379.0 4,611.3 4,106.6 -5.2% 1.000
EBITDA 697.6 1,263.9 1,146.7 1,084.5 1,135.9 62.8% 900
800
EBIT 350.0 709.6 809.6 554.1 803.7 129.6%
700
Net profit 231.5 349.7 469.7 363.3 258.9 11.9% 600
EBITDA margin 16.1% 22.8% 26.2% 23.5% 27.7% 500
EBIT margin 8.1% 12.8% 18.5% 12.0% 19.6% 400
Zentiva PX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Health Care (Rebased)
Net margin 5.3% 6.3% 10.7% 7.9% 6.3%
52 weeks
Andritz latest
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 45
40
Sales 763 983 751 899 889 16.5%
35
EBITDA 61.2 73.2 55.4 66.5 68.4 11.8%
30
EBIT 50.2 58 42.8 56 52.7 5.0% 25
Net profit 35 36.1 30.5 39.6 35.6 1.7% 20
EBITDA margin 8.0% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.7% 15
EBIT margin 6.6% 5.9% 5.7% 6.2% 5.9% 10
Andritz
Net margin 4.6% 3.7% 4.1% 4.4% 4.0% ATX (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Industrial Goods & Services (Rebased)
Insurance
1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap Price Recommendation Performance (EUR terms)
Curr. Current Target
Company (EURmn) (LC) 1M 3M 6M 12M
Uniqa EUR 1,979 16.5 14.9 Reduce -8.6% 9.8% -6.9% -9.2%
Vienna Insurance Group EUR 2,615 20.4 44.0 Buy -14.1% 7.5% -53.2% -58.1%
Allianz SE EUR - Euro
27,473 - - - -17.2% 0.2% -44.4% -50.1%
AXA SA EUR - Euro
23,821 - - - -23.9% -19.5% -39.7% -51.4%
Assicurazioni Generali SpA EUR - Euro
22,393 - - - -17.1% -19.3% -29.7% -45.0%
Mapfre SA EUR - Euro5,682 - - - -15.2% -8.2% -33.9% -22.8%
Sampo Oyj EUR - Euro6,658 - - - -7.5% -15.3% -25.9% -31.9%
Media
6/20/2008 Rep. Mcap Price Recommendation Performance (EUR terms)
Curr. Current Target
Company (EURmn) (LC) 1M 3M 6M 12M
Agora PLN 168.4 13.6 46.5 Hold -22.3% -37.4% -70.0% -75.3%
Austrian Post EUR 1,668.8 23.8 30.0 Buy 3.7% 5.5% -2.3% 0.9%
CME USD 433.4 13.1 u.r. Reduce -26.2% -48.3% -80.7% -83.2%
TVN PLN 944.6 12.0 20.0 Hold -13.4% -7.9% -48.9% -56.6%
Hurriyet Gazetecilik TRY - New Turkish
132 Lira - - - -5.2% -18.4% -66.6% -83.9%
St Ives Group GBP - UK Pound90
Sterling - - - 17.6% -25.0% -56.4% -73.7%
Edipresse SA CHF - Swiss Franc
200 - - - 9.2% -41.7% -44.1% -54.5%
Roularta EUR - Euro 132 - - - -11.9% -25.4% -48.8% -74.7%
Dogan Yayin Holding TRY - New Turkish
180 Lira - - - -5.1% -25.0% -68.6% -86.7%
Grupo Televisa SA MXN - Mexican
5,712
Peso - - - 9.8% 9.8% -19.8% -20.1%
TV Azteca MXN - Mexican 568
Peso - - - -8.0% 17.4% -14.0% -2.1%
ProSiebenSat.1 Media AG EUR - Euro 314 - - - -14.1% -44.7% -73.2% -88.4%
Bloomsbury Publishing GBP - UK Pound112
Sterling - - - -5.5% -28.1% -15.7% -29.7%
EuroStoxx Media - 64,438 - - - -8.2% -5.0% -21.1% -29.4%
52 weeks
Austrian Post latest
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 30
52 weeks
CME latest
120
(USD mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
100
Sales 174.84 300.96 223.47 305.39 201.01 15.0%
80
EBITDA 50.31 115.79 74.70 119.36 42.46 -15.6%
60
EBIT 34.95 97.79 44.68 98.00 6.13 -82.5%
40
Net profit -18.76 72.99 14.90 67.60 -14.76 -21.4%
EBITDA margin 28.8% 38.5% 33.4% 39.1% 21.1% 20
52 weeks
TVN latest
26
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 24
Sales 296.55 521.62 401.60 549.63 353.82 19.3% 22
EBITDA 56.43 213.22 126.80 246.92 94.76 67.9% 20
18
EBIT 37.73 193.41 108.20 227.44 74.14 96.5%
16
Net profit -78.33 135.84 63.44 207.59 5.01 n.a. 14
EBITDA margin 19.0% 40.9% 31.6% 44.9% 26.8% 12
52 weeks
Lotos Group latest
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 50
45
Sales 3,535.4 3,987.9 3,561.0 4,218.0 4,764.0 34.8% 40
EBITDA 483.8 242.6 256.0 473.0 276.0 -43.0% 35
30
EBIT 256.5 158.6 95.0 381.0 39.0 -84.8% 25
Net profit 236.8 321.2 278.0 422.0 -224.0 n.a. 20
15
EBITDA margin 13.7% 6.1% 7.2% 11.2% 5.8% 10
EBIT margin 7.3% 4.0% 2.7% 9.0% 0.8% 5 Lotos Group
WIG 20 (Rebased)
Net margin 6.7% 8.1% 7.8% 10.0% -4.7% DJ EURO STOXX Oil & Gas (Rebased)
52 weeks
MOL latest
(HUF mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 30.000
Net margin 8.7% 9.4% 8.3% 13.5% -0.5% MOL BUX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Oil & Gas (Rebased)
52 weeks
OMV latest
60
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
55
Sales 5,139.0 5,728.0 5,955.0 6,965.0 6,852.0 33.3% 50
EBITDA 818.0 797.6 999.0 1,355.0 1,183.0 44.6% 45
40
EBIT 619.0 491.7 792.0 1,083.0 723.0 16.8% 35
Net profit 517.0 353.0 446.0 684.0 453.0 -12.4% 30
25
EBITDA margin 15.9% 13.9% 16.8% 19.5% 17.3%
20
EBIT margin 12.0% 8.6% 13.3% 15.5% 10.6% 15
Net margin 10.1% 6.2% 7.5% 9.8% 6.6% OMV ATX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Oil & Gas (Rebased)
52 weeks
PKN Orlen latest
55
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
50
Sales 17,265 16,902 17,891 22,090 23,058 33.6%
45
EBITDA 1,187.0 733.0 785.0 2,253.0 1,120.0 -5.6%
40
EBIT 833.0 120.0 565.0 1,646.0 512.0 -38.5% 35
Net profit 562.0 556.0 626.0 1,698.0 71.0 -87.4% 30
EBITDA margin 6.9% 4.3% 4.4% 10.2% 4.9% 25
EBIT margin 4.8% 0.7% 3.2% 7.5% 2.2% 20
PKN Orlen
Net margin 3.3% 3.3% 3.5% 7.7% 0.3% WIG 20 (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Oil & Gas (Rebased)
52 weeks
Unipetrol latest
350
(CZK mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
Sales 22,156 21,149 22,149 27,081 29,899 34.9% 300
52 weeks
Gorenje latest
45
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
40
Sales 330.01 342.96 303.70 315.47 372.86 13.0%
35
EBITDA 21.23 27.60 24.90 21.02 23.25 9.5%
30
EBIT 8.40 13.68 10.75 6.65 8.70 3.6% 25
Net profit 7.11 10.37 4.79 1.16 7.05 -0.9% 20
EBITDA margin 6.4% 8.0% 8.2% 6.7% 6.2% 15
EBIT margin 2.5% 4.0% 3.5% 2.1% 2.3% 10
Gorenje
SBI (Rebased)
Net margin 2.2% 3.0% 1.6% 0.4% 1.9% DJ EURO STOXX Personal & Household Goods (Rebased)
52 weeks
Philip Morris latest
8.500
(CZK mn) 1H 2006 2H 2006 1H 2007 2H 2007 1H 2008 y/y 8.000
Sales 4,787.0 5,244.0 4,678.0 5,691.0 4,256.0 -11.1% 7.500
7.000
EBITDA 1,706.0 1,257.0 1,403.0 1,646.0 1,145.0 -32.9% 6.500
6.000
EBIT 1,506.0 1,091.0 1,199.0 1,427.0 952.0 -36.8% 5.500
Net profit 1,093.0 813.0 882.0 1,086.0 625.0 -42.8% 5.000
4.500
EBITDA margin 35.6% 24.0% 30.0% 28.9% 26.9% 4.000
EBIT margin 31.5% 20.8% 25.6% 25.1% 22.4% 3.500
3.000 Philip Morris CR
Net margin 22.8% 15.5% 18.9% 19.1% 14.7% PX (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Personal & Household Goods (Rebased)
52 weeks
Wolford latest
35
(EUR mn) 1Q07/08 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 4Q07/08 1Q08/09 y/y
30
Sales 30.5 46.0 48.5 32.7 31.9 4.5%
25
EBITDA -1.4 9.8 7.4 2.3 -0.9 -37.1%
20
EBIT -3.1 8.2 5.6 0.6 -2.6 -15.3%
Net profit -3.0 6.6 3.1 0.4 -2.9 -3.3% 15
Real Estate
1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap Price Recommendation Performance (EUR terms)
Curr. Current Target
Company (EURmn) (LC) 1M 3M 6M 12M
CA IMMO EUR 323 3.70 5.7 Hold -10.8% -40.2% -68.0% -69.2%
CA IMMO International EUR 107 2.47 6.0 Buy -1.2% 1.2% -70.9% -74.3%
ECM EUR 37 8.70 Under review -3.8% -28.2% -64.3% -69.9%
ECO Business-Immo EUR 48 1.42 u.r. Accumulate 1.4% -29.4% -78.1% -74.2%
GTC EUR 669 13.50 31.0 Hold -8.6% -27.1% -64.9% -67.9%
Immoeast EUR 700 0.84 Under review 64.7% -28.8% -83.3% -85.6%
Orco EUR 86 8.00 Under review 28.0% -22.1% -75.3% -86.2%
Sparkassen Immobilien EUR 136 2.00 Not rated 0.0% -46.7% -65.8% -69.5%
conwert Immobilien Invest AGEUR - Euro 366 - - - 25.4% -13.9% -54.3% -57.5%
Immofinanz AG EUR - Euro 395 - - - 109.8% -9.5% -85.2% -86.6%
Atrium European Real Estate Ltd.
EUR - Euro 663 - - - -12.0% -48.7% -67.0% -67.2%
Warimpex Finanz und Beteiligungs
EUR -AG Euro 44 - - - 8.9% -48.1% -75.9% -81.7%
XXI Century Investments Public
GBPLtd- UK Pound Sterling
7 - - - 167.1% -70.8% -98.4% -98.9%
Echo Investment SA PLN - Polish Zloty
183 - - - -17.8% -28.6% -61.2% -74.5%
52 weeks
ECM latest
1.100
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 1.000
Sales 8.31 8.51 7.08 10.30 9.14 9.9% 900
800
EBITDA -0.12 -33.23 -1.00 -3.99 -0.27 127.7%
700
EBIT -6.67 22.03 -3.32 -0.65 -0.40 -93.9% 600
Net profit 2.72 21.40 -14.90 -4.83 -2.04 n.a. 500
400
EBITDA margin -1.4% -390.8% -14.1% -38.7% -3.0% 300
EBIT margin -80.3% 259.1% -46.9% -6.3% -4.4% 200
ECM PX (Rebased) DJ STOXX Financial Services (Rebased)
Net margin 32.8% 251.6% -210.5% -46.9% -22.3%
52 weeks
ECO Business-Immobilien latest
9
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
8
Sales 12.46 12.77 18.30 18.50 18.62 49.4% 7
EBITDA 7.16 16.32 13.66 12.21 10.68 49.2% 6
EBIT 15.15 19.97 19.35 6.49 -18.39 n.a. 5
Net profit 7.51 12.62 8.69 -2.94 -22.57 n.a. 4
EBITDA margin 57.4% 127.8% 74.7% 66.0% 57.4% 3
52 weeks
Immoeast latest
(EUR mn) 1Q07/08 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 4Q07/08 1Q08/09 y/y 8
7
Sales 62.30 73.80 75.70 85.41 84.70 36.0%
6
EBITDA 45.68 26.03 13.81 59.44 33.70 -26.2% 5
EBIT 93.10 125.30 -94.79 -108.60 -261.40 n.a. 4
3
Net profit 98.06 122.40 -57.10 4.41 -53.60 n.a.
2
EBITDA margin 73.3% 35.3% 18.2% 69.6% 39.8% 1
EBIT margin 149.4% 169.8% -125.2% -127.1% -308.6% 0
Immoeast
Net margin 157.4% 165.9% -75.4% 5.2% -63.3% Immobilien ATX (Rebased)
DJ STOXX Financial Services (Rebased)
Orco latest
52 weeks
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 2Q 2008 y/y
Sales 88.57 85.90 47.16 66.09 112.35 26.8% 80
70
EBITDA 12.17 21.49 5.74 12.09 12.12 -0.4% 60
EBIT 9.73 67.76 11.40 19.13 13.48 38.6% 50
52 weeks
Eurocash latest
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 14
Sales 1293.61 1276.65 1226.51 1569.32 1733.30 34.0% 13
12
EBITDA 33.56 40.64 22.66 41.22 41.37 23.3% 11
EBIT 23.90 31.18 13.27 31.02 30.00 25.5% 10
Net profit 18.09 19.63 9.08 23.20 18.90 4.5% 9
8
EBITDA margin 2.6% 3.2% 1.8% 2.6% 2.4%
7
EBIT margin 1.8% 2.4% 1.1% 2.0% 1.7% 6
Net margin 1.4% 1.5% 0.7% 1.5% 1.1% 5
Eurocash WIG (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Retail (Rebased)
Net margin 10.0% 13.4% 5.3% 9.7% 10.3% LPP WIG (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Retail (Rebased)
52 weeks
Monnari latest
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 30
52 weeks
Vistula & Wolczanka latest
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 11
10
Sales 97.60 118.96 92.97 113.80 133.70 37.0%
9
EBITDA 14.282 16.77 9.27 -3.40 -1.10 n.a. 8
EBIT 20.00 13.05 6.66 -7.00 -5.70 n.a. 7
6
Net profit 16.10 13.56 5.86 -5.60 -15.40 n.a. 5
EBITDA margin 14.6% 14.1% 10.0% -3.0% -0.8% 4
EBIT margin 20.5% 11.0% 7.2% -6.2% -4.3% 3
2
Net margin 16.5% 11.4% 6.3% -4.9% -11.5% Vistula & Wolczanka WIG (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Retail (Rebased)
Technology
1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap Price Recommendation Performance (EUR terms)
Curr. Current Target
Company (EURmn) (LC) 1M 3M 6M 12M
Asseco Poland PLN 686 46.0 74.4 Buy -5.9% -12.3% -40.5% -41.9%
AT&S EUR 72 3.1 3.9 Hold 1.6% -32.3% -68.2% -69.0%
ComArch PLN 96 53.3 Under Review -19.9% -21.7% -43.5% -65.0%
Ericsson Nikola Tesla HRK 209 1,170.0 2,817.0 Hold -6.4% -15.0% -44.6% -54.2%
Kapsch TrafficCom EUR 192 15.7 32.7 Buy -3.0% -12.7% -43.4% -39.8%
phion EUR 6 8.0 Under review -16.3% -51.1% -62.1% -62.1%
S&T EUR 42 11.7 u.r. Hold 20.2% -57.2% -60.3% -72.7%
Sygnity PLN 52 19.2 22.7 Reduce -25.8% -2.1% -13.2% -50.5%
TecDAX Technology 17,270 - - - -7.6% -11.0% -39.7% -38.4%
EuroStoxx Technology 98,294 - - - -6.6% -16.0% -39.7% -44.4%
TecDAX Technology 13.8% 13.9% 14.5% 15.8% 8.0% 8.6% 7.8% 8.9% 11.0% 11.5% 10.2% 12.2%
EuroStoxx Technology 19.1% 14.2% 12.7% 14.8% 9.6% 6.6% 5.7% 7.4% 24.3% 20.3% 18.0% 18.4%
Median Peer Group 16.5% 14.0% 13.6% 15.3% 8.8% 7.6% 6.8% 8.1% 17.7% 15.9% 14.1% 15.3%
CEE to Peer, ppt -5.0 -1.5 -0.7 0.3 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 1.7 -4.0 -2.6 -3.3 -2.1
EBITDA growth (EUR) EPS growth (EUR)
2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e
Asseco Poland 387.6% 106.3% -6.6% -4.3% 21.1% 61.8% -14.2% -4.0%
AT&S 11.6% -6.9% -6.8% 11.2% 42.6% -92.9% 408.5% 49.6%
ComArch 8.0% 21.9% 0.8% 16.0% -20.5% 397.3% -77.2% 24.8%
Ericsson Nikola Tesla -18.8% 24.1% 6.5% 6.9% -14.7% 9.8% 8.9% 13.3%
Kapsch TrafficCom 26.7% 12.5% -20.7% 3.2% 51.1% -12.8% -23.4% 6.2%
phion -235.4% -117.0% 903.3% 166.2% -3481.6% -32.1% -108.4% 2615.6%
S&T 13.3% 11.3% 25.6% 13.6% -46.3% 89.8% 57.3% 27.6%
Sygnity -131.0% -463.4% -26.3% 2.3% 82.2% -102.0% 312.0% 53.4%
CEE total 25.1% 43.9% -5.0% 4.5% -19.5% 39.3% -3.4% 23.8%
TecDAX Technology 14.0% 53.8% 13.0% 14.1% 1.6% 99.1% 1.3% 3.7%
EuroStoxx Technology 13.4% -11.2% -14.5% 18.6% 11.2% 6.5% -9.4% 20.1%
Total Peer Group 13.4% -5.0% -10.3% 17.8% 5.9% 55.7% -2.1% 8.5%
CEE to Peer, ppt 11.7 48.9 5.2 -13.3 -25.3 -16.4 -1.3 15.2
52 weeks
AT&S latest
(EUR mn) 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 4Q07/08 1Q08/09 2Q08/09 y/y 14
52 weeks
ComArch latest
150
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 140
Sales 140.44 170.61 110.33 164.72 115.16 -18.0% 130
120
EBITDA 14.28 20.90 10.16 9.03 5.81 -59.3% 110
100
EBIT 9.84 16.04 5.56 4.25 0.75 -92.4% 90
80
Net profit 6.84 18.72 165.14 1.70 1.13 -83.6% 70
EBITDA margin 10.2% 12.3% 9.2% 5.5% 5.0% 60
50
EBIT margin 7.0% 9.4% 5.0% 2.6% 0.7% 40
ComArch WIG (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Technology (Rebased)
Net margin 4.9% 11.0% 149.7% 1.0% 1.0%
52 weeks
Ericsson Nikola Tesla latest
3.000
(HRK mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
Sales 574.52 494.68 380.83 426.68 517.54 -9.9% 2.500
52 weeks
Kapsch TrafficCom latest
35
(EUR mn) 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 4Q07/08 1Q08/09 2Q08/09 y/y
Sales 34.96 54.83 62.11 60.42 48.06 37.5% 30
52 weeks
Phion latest
30
(EUR mn) 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 4Q07/08 1Q08/09 2Q08/09 y/y
Sales 2.03 1.72 2.32 2.75 2.24 10.4% 25
Net margin 0.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% n.a. S&T ATX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Technology (Rebased)
52 weeks
Sygnity latest
45
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
40
Sales 250.65 392.13 211.26 295.43 183.65 -26.7%
35
EBITDA -46.38 67.84 -12.09 17.42 23.48 n.a. 30
EBIT -54.58 55.61 -24.84 7.05 11.84 n.a. 25
Net profit -50.13 43.05 -26.32 8.33 6.33 n.a. 20
EBITDA margin -18.5% 17.3% -5.7% 5.9% 12.8% 15
Telecom
1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap Price Recommendation Performance (EUR terms)
Curr. Current Target
Company (EURmn) (LC) 1M 3M 6M 12M
Magyar Telekom HUF 2,059 573.0 910.0 Accumulate -5.5% -2.3% -41.8% -36.0%
T-Hrvatski Telekom HRK 2,436 220.0 330.0 Accumulate 1.9% -8.3% -23.4% -30.7%
Telefonica O2 CR CZK 4,873 425.5 700.0 Buy -7.1% -0.5% -28.1% -12.4%
Telekom Austria EUR 4,517 9.8 12.7 Accumulate -12.5% -5.7% -28.5% -45.9%
Telekom Slovenije EUR 808 123.5 270.0 Hold 5.8% -32.5% -48.2% -62.5%
TPSA PLN 6,463 20.9 23.0 Hold 0.1% -7.1% -30.0% -16.5%
TEO LT AB LTL - Lithuanian297
Litas - - - 7.7% -17.1% -34.0% -40.0%
Rostelecom USD - US Dollar
4,461 - - - 20.7% 39.4% -20.4% -23.1%
Teliasonera Ab SEK - Swedish
15,776
Krona - - - 0.3% 7.5% -24.9% -39.3%
Telenor ASA NOK - Norwegian
8,291Krone - - - 11.4% -13.5% -48.3% -65.3%
KPN Koninklijke EUR - Euro 17,324 - - - -2.4% -0.8% -7.7% -12.7%
Portugal Telecom EUR - Euro 5,680 - - - 5.6% 34.8% -8.4% -26.7%
Swisscom AG CHF - Swiss12,650
Franc - - - 3.7% -4.1% 16.9% -7.6%
EuroStoxx Telecom - 229,583 - - - -4.9% 0.4% -7.0% -22.6%
52 weeks
Telefónica O2 CR latest
550
(CZK mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
500
Sales 16,031 15,932 15,410 15,866 16,827 5.0%
450
EBITDA 7,250.0 6,603.0 6724 7,601.0 7,215.0 -0.5%
400
EBIT 3,848.0 3,041.2 3359 4,396.0 4,105.0 6.7% 350
Net profit 2,706.0 2,789.4 2434 3,367.0 3,204.0 18.4% 300
EBITDA margin 45.2% 41.4% 43.6% 47.9% 42.9% 250
EBIT margin 24.0% 19.1% 21.8% 27.7% 24.4% 200
Telefonica O2 CR
Net margin 16.9% 17.5% 15.8% 21.2% 19.0% PX (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Telecommunications (Rebased)
52 weeks
Telekom Austria latest
24
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 22
Sales 1,277.1 1,288.1 1,259.6 1,276.2 1,328.0 4.0% 20
18
EBITDA 521.1 390.9 498.6 469.1 539.9 3.6%
16
EBIT 257.8 93.4 215.2 174.7 261.7 1.5% 14
12
Net profit 173.7 41.0 129.7 96.3 162.9 -6.2%
10
EBITDA margin 40.8% 30.3% 39.6% 36.8% 40.7% 8
EBIT margin 20.2% 7.3% 17.1% 13.7% 19.7% 6
Telekom Austria
ATX (Rebased)
Net margin 13.6% 3.2% 10.3% 7.5% 12.3% DJ EURO STOXX Telecommunications (Rebased)
52 weeks
Telekom Slovenije latest
400
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y
350
Sales 206.2 202.6 187.2 229.2 227.2 10.2%
300
EBITDA 82.6 71.1 80.9 83.2 81.0 -1.9%
250
EBIT 42.3 29.9 35.9 37.4 34.0 -19.5%
200
Net profit 28.6 13.4 23.7 24.9 23.3 -18.5%
EBITDA margin 40.1% 35.1% 43.2% 36.3% 35.6% 150
52 weeks
TP SA latest
(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 26
24
Sales 4,647.0 4,650.0 4,527.0 4,520.0 4,539.0 -2.3% 22
EBITDA 2,053.0 1,944.0 2,012.0 1,937.0 1,925.0 -6.2% 20
EBIT 962.0 848.0 949.0 984.0 915.0 -4.9% 18
16
Net profit 644.0 616.0 681.0 698.0 630.0 -2.2%
14
EBITDA margin 44.2% 41.8% 44.4% 42.9% 42.4% 12
EBIT margin 20.7% 18.2% 21.0% 21.8% 20.2% 10
TPSA
Net margin 13.9% 13.2% 15.0% 15.4% 13.9% WIG 20 (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Telecommunications (Rebased)
52 weeks
Austrian Airlines latest
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 7,5
7,0
Sales 687.6 576.9 525.3 665.1 674.0 -2.0% 6,5
6,0
EBITDA 102.2 45.4 14.6 92.5 55.7 -45.5% 5,5
5,0
EBIT 36.2 -20.7 -50.1 25.5 -9.4 n.a. 4,5
Net profit 29.1 -19.1 -60.5 11.6 -16.6 n.a. 4,0
3,5
EBITDA margin 14.9% 7.9% 2.8% 13.9% 8.3% 3,0
2,5
EBIT margin 5.3% -3.6% -9.5% 3.8% -1.4% 2,0
Austrian Airlines
Net margin 4.2% -3.3% -11.5% 1.7% -2.5% ATX (Rebased)
DJ EURO STOXX Travel & Leisure (Rebased)
52 weeks
Danubius Hotels latest
9.000
(HUF mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 8.500
Sales 14,382 11,136 9,157 12,852 13,887 -3.4% 8.000
7.500
EBITDA 4,211.0 271 -388.0 2,038.0 3,326.0 -21.0% 7.000
6.500
EBIT 3,052.0 -1028 -1,551.0 897.0 2,193.0 -28.1% 6.000
5.500
Net profit 2,588.0 -1530 -1,662.0 2,374.0 1,377.0 -46.8% 5.000
4.500
EBITDA margin 29.3% 2.4% -4.2% 15.9% 24.0% 4.000
EBIT margin 21.2% -9.2% -16.9% 7.0% 15.8% 3.500
Danubius Hotels
BUX (Rebased)
Net margin 18.0% -13.7% -18.2% 18.5% 9.9% DJ EURO STOXX Travel & Leisure (Rebased)
52 weeks
Vienna Int. Airport latest
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 90
Utilities
1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap Price Recommendation Performance (EUR terms)
Curr. Current Target
Company (EURmn) (LC) 1M 3M 6M 12M
CEZ CZK 14,152 734.5 1,316.0 Hold -12.0% -15.1% -51.4% -36.5%
EVN EUR 1,831 11.2 18.9 Buy 4.6% -7.1% -43.9% -40.6%
Transelectrica RON 178 10.4 26.8 Buy -12.8% -31.8% -60.7% -70.7%
Verbund EUR 8,534 27.7 58.5 Buy -15.1% -24.7% -44.0% -31.6%
E.ON AG EUR - Euro 49,785 - - - -6.0% -8.6% -37.9% -41.3%
ENEL SPA EUR - Euro 25,968 - - - -5.2% -17.4% -29.5% -43.2%
RWE AG EUR - Euro 33,187 - - - -2.5% 0.6% -21.0% -27.9%
Fortum Corporation EUR - Euro 13,519 - - - 7.0% -10.7% -43.0% -48.1%
Electricite de France EUR - Euro 69,652 - - - -5.0% -7.4% -29.5% -45.8%
EuroStoxx Utilities - 383,607 - - - -4.4% -5.7% -30.1% -30.6%
52 weeks
EVN latest
(EUR mn) 3Q06/07 4Q06/07 1Q07/08 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 y/y 24
22
Sales 449.0 531.4 667.7 697.3 477.6 6.4% 20
EBITDA 54.9 39.7 136.8 125.2 38.8 -29.3% 18
16
EBIT 15.0 10.4 92.0 78.6 5.2 -65.3% 14
Net profit 32.9 5.2 77.6 109.8 2.6 -92.1% 12
10
EBITDA margin 12.2% 7.5% 20.5% 18.0% 8.1%
8
EBIT margin 3.3% 2.0% 13.8% 11.3% 1.1% 6
Net margin 7.3% 1.0% 11.6% 15.7% 0.5% EVN ATX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Utilities (Rebased)
52 weeks
Transelectrica (RAS) latest
(RON mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 40
35
Sales 664.4 607.2 788.2 562.4 660.2 -0.6%
30
EBITDA 34.8 141.3 172.0 96.6 88.0 153.1%
25
EBIT -17.0 88.2 112.5 35.7 28.9 -270.0% 20
Net profit -22.0 17.7 82.2 33.4 17.3 -178.8% 15
EBITDA margin 5.2% 23.3% 21.8% 17.2% 13.3% 10
EBIT margin -2.6% 14.5% 14.3% 6.4% 4.4% 5
Net margin -3.3% 2.9% 10.4% 5.9% 2.6% Transelectrica BET (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Utilities (Rebased)
52 weeks
Verbund latest
(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y 60
55
Sales 761.8 785.7 891.7 757.5 988.0 29.7% 50
EBITDA 282.4 279.2 319.9 333.2 365.4 29.4% 45
40
EBIT 237.7 231.0 275.9 288.3 321.0 35.0% 35
Net profit 128.0 121.3 210.3 218.7 173.5 35.5% 30
25
EBITDA margin 37.1% 35.5% 35.9% 44.0% 37.0%
20
EBIT margin 31.2% 29.4% 30.9% 38.1% 32.5% 15
Net margin 16.8% 15.4% 23.6% 28.9% 17.6% Verbund ATX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Utilities (Rebased)
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