TO: FROM: RE: DATE:

NEA, SEIU, AFSCME The Mellman Group, Inc. Voters Overwhelmingly Oppose Cuts November 18, 2012

This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 1,000 2012 general election voters. Interviews were conducted by telephone November 9-12, 2012 using a national registration-based sample. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.1% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups, depending on size.

Our just-completed survey of 2012 voters carries a clear message: the American people oppose crippling austerity measures as well as a grand bargain that would undermine our commitment to senior citizens, schools and public safety in order to balance the federal budget. Rather, voters prioritize job creation, seeing that as the most effective route to deficit reduction, along with higher taxes on the wealthy.
BY 2-TO-1 VOTERS PREFER THAT CONGRESS AND THE PRESIDENT FOCUS ON JOB CREATION RATHER THAN DEFICIT REDUCTION

Americans clearly prioritize job creation Jobs Are The Clear Priority Over The Deficit over deficit reduction. Twice as many Which would you rather have Congress and the President focus on: reducing the federal budget deficit or creating jobs? Americans would rather see Congress and the 100% President focus on 67% creating jobs (67%) than 80% on reducing the deficit 60% (29%). These sentiments 29% are shared across party 40% lines. Sizeable majorities of Democrats (81%) and 20% 24% 57% independents (68%) strongly strongly prioritize jobs over the 0% Reduce Deficit Create Jobs deficit, and even a 1 narrower majority of Republicans agree (51% jobs to 44% deficit). These views also extend across the country with 65% of voters in the Northeast prioritizing jobs over deficit reduction (30% deficit reduction), as well as 65% in the

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Midwest (32% deficit reduction), 67% in the South (28% deficit reduction), and 72% in the West (24% deficit reduction). The priority accorded to job creation also cuts across the generations, with younger voters (under 50: 68% jobs, 29% reduce deficit) and older voters (over 50: 67% jobs, 28% reduce deficit) equally clear in their preference for a focus on jobs over deficits.
VOTERS BELIEVE MEDICARE, MEDICAID, SOCIAL SECURITY AND EDUCATION CAN AND SHOULD BE PROTECTED AS CONGRESS MOVES TO CUT THE BUDGET

A clear majority, including most independents, want In order to balance the budget and reduce the nations debt, Congress needs to neither a grand Increase taxes on the wealthiest Leave taxes alone and cut Increase taxes on the wealthiest, and cut spending on major spending on major programs like 100% invest in job creation protect 100% 100% bargain that would programs like Medicare, Social Medicare, Social Security and priorities like Medicare, Social Security and education education Security and education 90% 90% 90% raise taxes on the 80% 80% 80% 73% wealthy and cut 70% 70% 70% programs nor simply 60% 60% 60% cuts alone to reduce the 52% 50% 50% 50% budget deficit. Rather, 41% 40% 40% 40% 53% of Americans want 31% 22% 30% 30% 30% to see the wealthy pay 18% 15% 20% 13% 20% 20% their fair share so 7% Congress can invest in 10% 10% 10% job creation and still 0% 0% 0% Democrat Republican Independent Democrat Republican Independent Democrat Republican Independent protect our national 5 priorities. Just 16% support the grand bargain combining tax hikes on high-income earners with cuts to Medicare, Social Security and Huge Majorities Believe The Budget Can Be Balanced education. Only 23% favor Without Cutting Social Security, Medicare Or Education spending cuts without In order to reduce the deficit, do you think it will be necessary to cut ______, or increased revenues. can we reduce the deficit without cutting ______? Majorities of Democrats % We can reduce deficit without cutting (73%) and independents 86% 100% 84% 83% (52%) prefer tax hikes on the 78% wealthy and investments in 80% job creation while 60% protecting Medicare, Social Security and education, and 40% almost a third of 20% Republicans agree (31%).
Majorities Of Democrats And Independents, And Many Republicans, Want High-Income Tax Increases And No Cuts
0%

Indeed, voters reject the view that Medicare, Social

Social Security

Medicare

Education Funding Fed. funds for local police and fire

2

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Security or education need to be cut in order to reduce the deficit. Large majorities believe deficit reduction can be achieved without cutting Social Security (86%), Medicare (78%), education (84%) or federal funding for local police and firefighters (83%). This view too is shared across the political spectrum. Even among Republicans, supermajorities reject the idea that cutting Social Security (80%), Medicare (68%), education (69%), or police and fire (72%) are necessary to tame the deficit. In addition, voters overwhelmingly oppose cuts to these programs. Eighty-nine percent (89%) oppose cuts in nursing home aid for the elderly covered by Medicaid. A similarly overwhelming 87% oppose cuts to Social Security benefits. Eighty three percent (83%) oppose cuts to health insurance for kids covered by Medicaid, while 82% oppose cuts to federal funding for K-12 education, and 80% oppose Medicare cuts. Seventy-five percent (75%) of voters also oppose cutting Medicaid, while 74% oppose cutting federal funding for college financial aid and student loans, and 62% oppose ending emergency unemployment benefits.
LAWMAKERS WHO PUSH FOR CUTS TO SOCIAL SECURITY, MEDICARE OR EDUCATION

WILL FACE AN ANGRY ELECTORATE IN 2014

Voters make it clear that they will not tolerate cuts to important If in the next month your Member of Congress proposed cutting _____, would you feel: government services. A) Angry that your Member of Congress broke their promise Majorities said they B) Satisfied that Your Member of Congress was doing what was best for the country? would feel angry if their 100% 100% Social Security and Medicare Education member of Congress 80% 80% proposed cuts to Social 62% 57% Security and Medicare 60% 60% (57%) or education (62%), rather than being 40% 40% 27% 24% satisfied their representative was 20% 20% 48% 16% 53% 14% doing what was best for strongly strongly strongly strongly 0% 0% the country (27% and Angry Satisfied Angry Satisfied 24%, respectively). 4 Among independents, a 51% majority shared the sense of anger at a Member who proposed Social Security/ Medicare cuts, and 65% would be angry over education cuts. Members of Congress on both sides of the aisle will find little relief from their party bases should they push for cuts. Among Republicans, 49% would be angry and 32% would be satisfied if their representative proposed cutting Social Security or Medicare, with a similar split of 46% to 36% for education cuts. Lawmakers face even greater
Majorities Would Be Angry If Their Member Of Congress Broke Their Promise To Protect S.S., Medicare Or Education

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anger from Democrats, 65% of whom would be angry about cuts to Social Security or Medicare, while 75% would be angered by cuts to education. The message of this poll should be clear: ideologues who seek to balance the budget and reduce the national debt by harming our seniors, our students, or our valuable government services do so at their peril. Instead Americans want to reduce the deficit by investing in job creation.