Planning Tools and Techniques Part 2

Planning Tools and Techniques

Planning tools
Network diagrams Critical path method PERT analysis Gantt charts Resource histogram Containment of risk

PERT analysis

PERT stands for: Program Evaluation & Review Technique

A way of modelling uncertainty when scheduling If used properly will lead to more stable schedules

PERT analysis
Expected time calculated from 3 estimates for the duration of each activity

optimistic time (o)

if things go well

most likely time (m)

this is usually the original estimate

pessimistic time (p)

if it can go wrong, it will...

PERT analysis
Based on distribution, the expected time te
is calculated as: te = [o + 4m + p] / 6

Our activity B has estimate of 4. Let us say: o = 3, m = 4, p = 11

te = [3 + 16 + 11] / 6

Expected time te is 5, longer than the most likely time This could change the critical path in the network diagram
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PERT analysis
try out the tasks past exam questions

Gantt charts
Devised by Henry Gantt (early 1900s) Block representation of tasks Length of task bar proportional to duration Each start/end time represented by task bar Graphical representation of project Can translate network diagram into Gantt chart Easy to read

Gantt charts
week 6 week 7 week 8
Time line: Activities: Request Jones paper Request Smith paper week 10 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 9

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper Interview subjects set q's for questionnaire issue questionnaire Analyse data from q'naire have report proof read Write report Submit report

Can set questions while requesting and reviewing papers Might not need two full weeks

Gantt charts
week 6 week 7 week 8
Time line: Activities: Request Jones paper Request Smith paper week 10 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 9

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper Interview subjects set q's for questionnaire issue questionnaire Analyse data from q'naire have report proof read Write report Submit report

Might be able to start this task early ...and finish early

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Gantt charts
week 6 week 7 week 8
Time line: Activities: Request Jones paper Request Smith paper week 10 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 9

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper Interview subjects set q's for questionnaire issue questionnaire Analyse data from q'naire have report proof read Write report Submit report

Might not have to start this task straight away Might want to delay while doing other things
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Gantt charts
week 6 week 7 week 8
Time line: Activities: Request Jones paper Request Smith paper week 10 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 9

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper Interview subjects set q's for questionnaire issue questionnaire Analyse data from q'naire have report proof read Write report Submit report

Might be able to set questions in the middle of the time slot

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Gantt charts
week 6 week 7 week 8
Time line: Activities: Request Jones paper Request Smith paper week 10 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 9

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper Interview subjects set q's for questionnaire issue questionnaire Analyse data from q'naire have report proof read Write report Submit report

Questionnaire must be prepared before it can be issued

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Gantt charts
week 6 week 7 week 8
Time line: Activities: Request Jones paper Request Smith paper week 10 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 9

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper Interview subjects set q's for questionnaire issue questionnaire Analyse data from q'naire have report proof read Write report Submit report

Questionnaire must be issued & returned before results can be analysed

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Gantt charts
week 6 week 7 week 8
Time line: Activities: Request Jones paper Request Smith paper week 10 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 9

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper Interview subjects set q's for questionnaire issue questionnaire Analyse data from q'naire have report proof read Write report Submit report

Analyse data before interviewing subjects

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Gantt charts
week 6 week 7 week 8
Time line: Activities: Request Jones paper Request Smith paper week 10 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 9

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper Interview subjects set q's for questionnaire issue questionnaire Analyse data from q'naire have report proof read Write report Submit report

Interview subjects before writing report

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Gantt charts in MS Project

ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Task Name Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5 Task 6 Task 7 Task 8 Duration 3 days 2 days 5 days 3 days 6 days 3 days 4 days 1 day T F 12 Mar '00 S S M T W T F 19 Mar '00 S S M T W T F

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Gantt charts
In their basic form Gantt charts:
Do not explicitly show logical dependencies Do not optimise resources and costs Do not display current progress

But... They are simple to read

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Gantt charts in MS Project

ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Task Name Activity 1 task 1.1 task 1.2 task 1.3 Activity 2 task 2.1 task 2.2 task 2.3 task 2.4 deliver AB CD AB,CD EF 20/03
18 18

W T

12 Mar '00 S S M T W T

19 Mar '00 S S M T W T

AB AB[50% ],CD[50% ] EF

Gantt charts
In more advanced forms Gantt charts:
Soon become cluttered

Become more difficult to read

Become more difficult to update

Still cannot easily show all task dependencies

Require computer software to keep up to date
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Gantt charts
try out the tasks including past exam papers

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Resource histogram
Identifies resource requirements over time
Helps to identify peak resource requirements Helps to identify unnecessary peaks and troughs (resource smoothing: keep within limits) Commonly used to analyse staff resource levels

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Resource histogram
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Week number

Staff required

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Resource histogram
upper limit of staff resources

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Resource histogram
upper limit of staff resources

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Staff resources
try out the tasks including past exam papers

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Risk: Isolate the Baseline Plan

Risks must be associated with a plan before they can be handled

As risks could prevent the achievement of objectives, plans for achieving objectives must be in place before risks can be considered

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Risk revisited
Identify:
What are the potential risks?

Assess:
What is the impact of each risk? What is the likelihood of the risk occurring? How can the risk be prevented or identified early? What needs to be done if the risk does occur?

Allocate:
To whom can I assign the risk?
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Containment
A new MS Access/Visual Basic system for a retail company Duration:
requirements capture: 2 weeks development: 8 weeks acceptance testing: 2 weeks

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Sequence of Activities

Requirements

Development

Acceptance

Capture

2 Weeks

8 Weeks

2 Weeks

Project will last 12 weeks (i.e. 2 + 8 + 2)

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What is the risk?

There is an 90% chance that this length of time is insufficient because the MS Access specialist may be required to support a project of higher priority. If this were to happen, the 8 weeks scheduled for development would then extend to 10 weeks i.e. a 2 week delay with 7 person-weeks further effort Consider a containment action investigate whether this is a cost-effective solution
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Including the element of risk

2 Weeks 7 Person Weeks Risk: 2 week over-run RC 2 Weeks Development 10% 8 Weeks (10%) 10 Weeks (90%) 2 Weeks

90% Acceptance

Project will last 12 weeks (10%) or 14 weeks (90%)

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Containment Calculation
Expected value of additional duration = 0.9 * 2 = 1.8 weeks This evaluates the 90% chance of a 2 week delay Expected value of additional effort = 0.9 * 7 = 6.3 person-weeks This evaluates the 90% chance of a further 7 person-weeks This calculation is without a containment action
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Containment
A 3-week training course in parallel (i.e. 1 extra week) with the requirements capture would reduce the risk to 25% with an additional 2 person-weeks effort Draw a diagram to show the containment action and recalculate the revised impact on effort and duration

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Containing the risk

3 Week course 1 extra Week 2 Person-weeks

Using a training course as a containment action

2 Weeks 7 Person-weeks

Course

25% Acceptance 75% 2 Weeks

Risk: 2 week over-run

RC 2 Weeks Development 8 Weeks (75%) 10 Weeks (25%)

Project will last 13 weeks (75%) or 15 weeks (25%)

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Containment Calculation
Expected value of additional duration = 1 + (0.25 * 2) = 1.5 weeks This evaluates the extra week on the course, plus the reduced risk of 25% of a 2 week delay Expected value of additional effort = 2 + (0.25 * 7) = 3.75 person-weeks This evaluates extra 2 person-weeks on the course, plus the reduced risk of 25% of a further 7 person-weeks This calculation includes a containment action
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Dealing with risk

Would you book the course? What other factors need to be considered? How would the diagram look if the course
is before Requirements Capture? is between Requirements Capture and Development?

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Risk analysis
try out the tasks - including past exam papers

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Further reading
Bentley C (1997) PRINCE 2: A Practical Handbook Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann Brooks F. (1995) The Mythical Man-Month (Anniversary Edition), Harlow: Addison-Wesley Burke R (1999). Project Management: Planning and Control Techniques, Chichester: Wiley Central Computer & Telecommunications Agency (1997) PRINCE 2: An Outline, London: The Stationery Office Field M & Keller L (1998) Project Management, Oxford: International Thomson Business Press

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