SUSTAINING HUMANITY:

AN OUTLINE

By Dick Watkins

ƒ This work is licensed under the Creative Commons

Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 Unported License, 2009.
For details go to the following website:

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 CONTENTS
Page
I. Foreword 3

II. Summary 4

III. Sustaining Humanity: Facts to Remember and Actions to Take 5

A. Human Physical Welfare 5
1.0 Food 5
2.0 Water 7
3.0 Shelter 8
4.0 Energy 9
5.0 Climate Change and Pollution 11
6.0 Population 14
7.0 Poverty 15
8.0 Health and Longevity 15
9.0 Economy 16
10.0 Ecosystems and Sustainability 16
11.0 Security 18
12.0 Catastrophic Failure 18
B. Human Contentment 19
1.0 Spirituality and Moral Compass 19
2.0 Social Connectedness 19
C. Human Freedom 20
1.0 Education 20
2.0 Freedom 21

IV. System Assessment & Intervention for Sustained, Human

Well-Being 21
1.0 System Assessment 22
2.0 System Intervention 27
3.0 Sojourners Are We 31

V. References 32

2
 I FOREWORD
In early 2008, I started a journey seeking a project for the “common good“
that used my skill-set and my interests. After a friend questioned the
concept of climate change I started reading about it including the work of the
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). I was
fascinated by the experimental data the scientists had collected, and started
to save some of the key plots that convinced me that climate change
resulting from human activity was real and significant. From the data and
the resultant models, there could be dire consequences to humanity and all
other life forms on this planet if we don’t respond to the conclusions and
abate the human causes of climate change and global warming.

Next I read a book entitled “Energy Victory” by Dr. Robert Zubrin. It had a
lasting impact on me because of the vast and varied amount of information
on the technical and political aspects of energy. I first thought that he had a
solution by using flex-fuel vehicles that would be powered by
gasoline/ethanol/methanol mixtures. When it became clear to me that we
were trading fuel for food with corn ethanol production, it no longer seemed
like an appropriate solution. I also have studied Mr. T. Boon Pickens’ plan,
and am heartened by an eighty-year-old man trying to make a difference.
The plan has great merit in reducing our dependency on foreign oil in the
short-term by utilizing our vast Great Plains for generating renewable,
carbon-neutral electricity utilizing wind power, and using natural gas to fuel
public transportation and trucking fleets until renewable fuels are available.

Reading “Common Wealth” by renowned economist, Dr. Jeffery Sachs,

broadened my understanding of Earth and its complexity. The data that were
included gave great credence to his perspective and recommendations.
Then reading “Plan B 3.0” by Dr. Lester Brown, environmentalist, convinced
me that the complexities and interrelationship of the parameters of our
planet needs the involvement of all of us for the survival of humanity and the
planet’s other life forms.

Reading about social entrepreneurs supported by Mr. Bill Drayton’s Ashoka

and Mohammed Yunus’ book entitled “Creating a World Without Poverty,” I
began to think more broadly about the human condition and what humanity
calls our home. That caused me to reflect on what my responsibility is for our
Earth, and what leads to human well-being and biodiversity. Biodiversity is
assumed to be important because of its {a} regulatory function for production
(e.g., fertility of soils, pollinators of plants) and services (e.g., purification of
air and water); {b} economic function (e.g., food, clothing, timber); and
{c} scientific (e.g., understanding ecology and the genome).

Then I read the comprehensive work done in the “Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment” (2005). http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx It
is highly recommended for more in-depth reading as are all the books
mentioned above. In addition the following are highly recommended: “The
Bridge at the Edge of the World,” (2008) by Dr. James Gustave Speth,
“Limits to Growth” (2004) by Dr. Donella Meadows et al., “Earth: The Sequel”
3
by Fred Krupp and Miriam Horn (2008), “Great Transition: The Promise and
Lure of the Times Ahead,” by Dr. Paul Raskin et al., “Hot, Flat and Crowded”
by Thomas Friedman (2008) and “The Black Swan” by Nissim Nicholas Taleb
(2007).

The product of the above reading and reflecting is this brief distillation of
some important facts about our planet, and the actions we residents should
take whether it is within our immediate family, the local level, provincial
level, nation-state or across the planet. A consensus must be reached on
appropriate plans, and actions to take, or our species will experience
escalating calamity. Pollution will cause irreversible loss in our planet’s
ecosystem. This report is not original research and the “facts” are from
general reading, many with references for more in-depth study. Some will
consider it a literature survey, and others a synthesis report, which include
judgments and conclusions. The facts always should be questioned because
even in peer review literature, the facts are not always correct. It is written
through the lens of the author’s worldview so a critical eye should be part of
the reader’s perspective. This monograph is meant for general audiences
that want to learn, reflect and question the “facts.” It is the author’s hope
that motivated citizens will want to take some action. This is a living
document that will be revised, as there becomes more clarity.

II. SUMMARY
After studying the elements that contribute to humanity’s “joy and despair”
and the complex interactions among these elements, it is mandatory that we
take immediate steps to live within the bounds of the Earth system to ensure
a continuing legacy for humanity. Human well-being requires that the
developed nations provide funding, technology and human services to the
developing countries so that hopelessness, chaos and hostility will be
replaced with interdependency. A systems perspective is used to make a
qualitative assessment of priorities for decision-making on achieving
sustained, human well-being while keeping in mind that prediction of the
future is difficult because of unforeseen, high consequence events. The
solution(s) require preparedness, a paradigm shift in human values from
consumption to sustainability and system interventions to create an effective
means of sustaining humanity.

4
 III. SUSTAINING HUMANITY: FACTS TO REMEMBER
AND ACTIONS TO TAKE
The goal of this section is to give the reader an overview of the elements or
attributes that contribute to human well-being, some positive and others
negative, and actions that should be taken to enhance the “common good”
and provide “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” for humanity. There
are sixteen elements or attributes that are included. More comprehensive
information is available in references that are listed for each element.
Additional attributes or parameters may need to be added to be all-inclusive.

In referencing philosopher Sir Anthony Kenny, Dr. John Stutz proposed that
human well-being or the quality of life could be classified into three broad
categories: {A.} Welfare (physical health), {B.} Contentment (satisfaction with
life) and {C.} Freedom. 1 This monograph uses these three sub-categories.

Section III focuses on the individual elements as “silos,” (i.e., assumes

elements are independent of each other), but also covers some of their
“interdependence” for clarity. Dr. Medard Gabel, 2 who is developing
TM
EarthGame, has a short video on his website that gives a lucid
introduction to many of the attributes that are discussed below.
http://www.bigpicturesmallworld.com/movies/introB.html The “Big Picture
Small World” Home Page given in the reference has other videos that are
pertinent.

Section IV will demonstrate the interdependency of the elements of Section

III as part of an assessment to estimate the larger contributors to the quality
of life. Section IV will also show the best ways to intervene in the Earth
system to sustain humanity.

A. HUMAN PHYSICAL WELFARE

1.0 < FOOD >

1.1 FACTS
1) Humanity needs carbohydrates, protein and fats in our diet to be healthy.
Carbohydrates are grown on agricultural lands that produce grains, fruits and
vegetables. Proteins are obtained from animals (e.g., cattle, poultry, eggs,
milk, and fish) and soybeans. Fats in our diet are from animals and nuts.
2) Food sourcing is a complex issue because of conflict with other human
needs including: {a} other land uses, (e.g., urbanization and crop-based
transportation fuels); {b} water availability; {c} climate change;
{d} biodiversity (e.g., over-fishing of oceans for specific fish); and
{e} population growth. (Humankind needs land to live on as well as food to
eat, which results in a positive feedback mechanism {self-reinforcing or
accelerating}, which requires even more land).
3) Food productivity has increased many-fold due to technological
advancements including {a} high yielding seeds, {b} fertilizers, {c} pesticides,
{d} irrigation, {e} no-till planting, {f} fish farming, and {g} feed-lot
nourishment of animals.
5
4) With earlier maturing seeds double-cropping has been accomplished in
China (winter wheat and corn), India (wheat and rice) and US (winter wheat
and soybeans). 1
5) About 900 million people are hungry in 2007, which is a 50 million
increase over 2006 resulting from increased food prices. 1 Ninety percent of
the hungry live in developing countries.
6) Food consumption is too high for about one billion people in the
developed countries.
6) Cattle consume 7 kilograms of grain per kilogram of weight gain, which is
very food and energy inefficient. (Note: Actually 13 kilograms of grain
consumption are required per kilogram of “edible” meat since almost half of
the weight gain is skeletal and fat.) Hogs eat 3 kilograms of grain per
kilogram of weight gain, poultry 2 kilograms/kilogram of weight gain and
herbivorous, farmed fish < 2 kilograms/kilogram of weight gain. Herbivorous
fish include catfish, tilapia and carp. 2
7) The “true” cost of meat does not include the environmental costs (e.g.,
fresh water for the grain growth and industrial processing waste of the feed
grains and livestock that are not priced into the product). 3
8) There are more than 400 ocean dead zones worldwide that kill fish
because of oxygen-depletion caused by fertilizer run-off from the planet’s
farmland. This marine ecosystem stressor is comparable to over-fishing of
the oceans. The Gulf of Mexico dead zone caused by the Mississippi River
covers an area the size of New Jersey. 4
9) One third of the global population doesn’t get enough iodine in their diet,
which lowers their mental IQ. This is particularly a problem for births where
the mother is iodine deficient. Iodized salt is an inexpensive micronutrient
that will benefit developing countries. 5

1.2 ACTION PLAN

1) Reduce by half the proportion of people who suffer from hunger by 2015
{United Nations Millennium Development Goal – MDG}. 6
2) To improve health and to conserve worldwide food supply Americans
should move down the food chain, as people in developing countries start
moving up the food chain. Meats such as fish and poultry provide a more
healthy diet than red meat like beef. Many in developed countries should
reduce their daily caloric intake.
3) Vegetarians and vegans are at the bottom of the food chain, and lower the
average human food footprint on the planet. Consider being a vegetarian or
vegan.
4) Protect the biodiversity of our planet by closely monitoring both ocean and
land based species.
5) Food security must be a priority for the US and all world governments
because of our “overpopulated, climate-changing and water-scarce world.” 7
It will become clear that many of these human requirements to be discussed
will cause or contain positive feedback loops or will self-reinforce the
parameter, and make the circumstances even worse or better depending on
the parameter. {Note: In systems analysis a positive feedback loop amplifies
the effect of the element. A negative feedback or self-correcting loop would
dissipate the effect of the parameter.}

6
2.0 < WATER >

2.1 FACTS 1 , 2
1) The oceans contain 97.25% of the planet’s water. The remaining water is
fresh water that is stored in {a} Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, sea ice
and glaciers (2.05%), {b} groundwater aquifers (0.68%) and {c} surface water
(lakes, rivers and soil moisture) and the atmosphere contain the remaining
(.02%).
2) Seventy percent of all human water use is for agriculture, 20% is for
industrial use and 10% for residential use.
3) Sustainable, safe drinking water is not available for 1.1 billion people.
4) Fresh water is a $400 billion per annum global industry; third largest
behind electricity and oil. 3
5) The world-wide privatization of fresh water is happening quickly. 3
4) Lakes are disappearing because of water needs for agriculture (e.g., Lake
Chad in Central Africa and the Aral Sea in Central Asia 4 ).
5) Rivers in Asia (from west to east including the Indus, Ganges, Mekong,
Yangtze and Yellow 5 ) are likely to become seasonal because of the
disappearance of the Himalayan and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau glaciers over the
next fifty years. (Look at the glaciers and rivers on Google Earth.)
6) Ground water aquifers are being “mined” (i.e., water withdrawn faster than
being replenished) all over the planet. China and India are among the
countries of increasing water stress. (They are listed because they account
for 37% of the Earth’s population.) Drilling for water becomes more and
more costly.
7) Forty percent of the arable land in Asia is already utilizing irrigation. 6
8) Competition for surface water and groundwater aquifers are both intra-
national and international, which leads to conflict due to water scarcity. It
will only get worse as population grows. In the US the Chattahoochee River,
with headwaters in Georgia, has caused water-sourcing problems for growing
populations in Georgia, Alabama and Florida. Similarly, the Southwestern
US, which has had dramatic population increases, will have increasing water
scarcity issues. The Colorado River is the source, which gets most of its
water from melting winter snows in the Rocky Mountains. 7 The Nile River
in Africa is an example of international conflict over water among the
countries of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia.
9) Desalination of ocean water is not a large-scale economic option except in
an energy-rich region near the coast like the Arab Middle East.
10) Water scarcity leads to food scarcity and conflict. (This is one example
of the interdependency of various elements or parameters of our planet.)

2.2 ACTION PLAN 1 , 2

1) Achieve safe drinking water across the planet. At least reduce by half the
proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water by
2015 (MDG). {1.7 million die annually from diarrhea caused by water
contaminated with human feces.}
2) “More crop per drop 8 .” Obtain financial support for converting worldwide
irrigation farming to drip irrigation. Drip irrigation systems (DIS) can
increase the productivity of irrigated lands by saving significant amounts of
water or increasing productivity of arid lands. Major savings on agro-
chemicals quantities required per hectare (e.g., fertilizers and pesticides)
7
are realized as an additional benefit for drip irrigation. Cost effective
systems will vary from developed countries to developing countries. The
“true” cost of water, like other natural resources, should be part of the
calculation of the payback time for the drip irrigation investment. 9 , 1 0 , 1 1 , 1 2
3) World-wide governance of fresh water should be considered. Sign the
petition to add Article 31 to the United Nations “Universal Declaration of
Human Rights” that was ratified by the UN General Assembly on
12/10/1948. 1 3 , 1 4
4) Increase “virtual” water through increased international trade of food to
mitigate water-forced food scarcity. 1 5
5) Mine the “frozen” water from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
before they melt or slide into the ocean. (Tongue-in-cheek)

3.0 < SHELTER >

3.1 FACTS 1 , 2 , 3
1) The world faces another looming challenge, the rise of an impoverished
urban underclass with about one billion people living in slums or squatter
communities around the world. An additional one billion rural residents in
developing countries live in unhealthy housing conditions.
2) With globalization there is a mass migration of people in developing
countries from rural to urban areas in hopes of finding jobs. Many older
urban areas are encircled by squatters’ settlements (e.g., Caracas,
Venezuela – 52% of the population; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania - 49%;
Karachi, Pakistan - 40%; and Mumbai, India – 6 million people.) The housing
is often made of flimsy materials such as cardboard and sheet metal.
3) The squatter settlements have unhealthy living conditions including unsafe
water, lack of sanitation, poor food preparation/storage areas and no
garbage pick-up. The people live in crowded spaces, which lead to the rapid
spread of communicable diseases; and they have poor in-door air quality
(burning dung, wood and coal for cooking) that leads to respiratory diseases.
4) With the great rural to urban migration that is in process, it is estimated
that China will need to build 200 million housing units in urban areas over
the next couple of decades. For perspective that is twice the number of
existing housing units in the United States.
5) There is a clear relationship between poor housing and poor health.

3.2 ACTION PLAN 2 , 3

1) Financial assistance is needed to assist squatter communities to have
better shelter and infrastructure, which will improve housing as well as
health conditions. Freedom to develop creative housing solutions is an
important part of the puzzle.
2) Developing countries need to utilize sustainable urban development
methods to transition their populations from rural to urban living.

8
4.0 < ENERGY >

4.1FACTS 1 , 2
1) Fossil fuels have provided much of humanity’s energy over the millennia.
2) In 2008 the US used 25% of the world’s energy, and had only 4% of the
world’s population.
3) The world’s energy consumption is as follows: {a} 40% for transportation,
{b} 40% for electric power generation and {c} 20% for various residential and
industrial applications besides electricity. 3
4) The US reached peak oil production in 1971, at which time we imported
about 25% of our needs. In 2008 we imported almost 70% of our oil and
gasoline.
5) Since oil is a global commodity, oil consumption in the US is dependent
upon politically volatile areas (eg, Middle East and Venezuela).
6) The US uses much of its military spending to ensure that US/EU have oil
imports protected to meet our consumption needs.
7) Oil is priced in dollars, but it may be priced in Euros or an international
currency in the future.
8) “Big Oil” (publicly traded international companies) pumps 10% of the
today’s global oil, and “Big Sovereign State” (including Saudi Arabia, Russia,
Iran, Mexico, Venezuela, etc.) pumps 90% of the oil. “Big Sovereign State”
is the “root cause” of high oil prices, and “Big Oil” is a beneficiary of the
global market economy.
9) Global peak oil will likely be reached at 95 M barrels/day by 2015-2020.
Peak oil may have already been reached at 87 M barrels/day.
10) Fifty percent of US electricity generation is from coal. Coal is the worst
of the fossil fuels for producing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other
pollutants such as mercury.
11) Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) process for coal reacts
water {H 2 O} with coal to produce carbon dioxide {CO 2 } and hydrogen {H 2 }.
The H 2 is burned in a gas turbine to generate clean electricity. The CO 2
would have to be captured and sequestered to prevent GHG emissions. 4
This process has been demonstrated only at the pilot plant scale.
12) Buildings account for 39% of total U.S. energy consumption (more than
the transportation sector) and 71% of the electricity useage according to the
U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC). 5
13) China is bringing on coal-fired power plants at the rate of one per week,
and since 2006 has been the world’s largest emitter of CO 2 , contributing
about 20% per year.
14) Energy alternatives for global needs must be on a fast track with
developing countries like China and India needing large quantities as they
move from agrarian societies to industrialized nations.
15) Global social chaos and expanded wars are likely if we don’t act quickly.
16) The world currently uses 13 terawatts (13 trillion watts of power;
energy/unit time), and it is predicted to double to 26 terawatts by 2050. That
is equivalent to the addition of one nuclear power plant per day until 2050.
We need an Energy Technology (ET) revolution, and the US should take the
lead. 6
17) World-wide investments in renewable energy increased from $92B in
2006 to $148B in 2007. ($98B for generation and $50B in development and
manufacturing scale-up) Europe is the leader in this investment. 7
9
4.2 ACTION PLAN
1) Drill for oil on the offshore continental shelf and in Alaska (ANWR) using
environmentally friendly technologies (oil production in ~ 10 years). Use the
oil as feedstock for petrochemicals and fertilizer, not for transportation or
power generation.
2) US Government mandates a phase-in of $0.25/gallon/year over ten years
to achieve $2.50/gallon additional taxes on gasoline (EU model). The
resultant revenue should be directed to public/private partnerships for
renewable energy sourcing, energy storage (needed for wind and solar
electricity generation) and electric-grid optimization (“smart grid”) as well as
mass transit to achieve US energy independence by 2025. Current US
Government tax is $.184/gallon. Reduce individual and corporate income
taxes at the same time.
3) Improve energy efficiency through green design of new buildings and
green retrofit of existing buildings. Mandate energy efficiency criteria for
future public-owned buildings {government and public school buildings at all
levels}.
4) To improve the energy efficiency of liquid fuel use the US Government
should expand incentives to consumers to purchase hybrid vehicles. This is
important, but only a short-term, transitional solution.
5) Private transportation should become mainly plug-in hybrid electric
vehicles (PHEV) by 2020. The Chevy Volt PHEV is to be on the market in
2010. {Focus on battery design and manufacturing to achieve low cost, 60-
mile range/charge batteries. This alternative is valid only if increased
electric power generation capacity can be achieved through low CO 2
emissions technologies. 8 }
6) A fascinating alternative to PHEV is a battery-powered electric vehicle
(EV) that has a large plug-in charging system associated with a densely
populated area. This approach is being pursued by an Israeli company,
Better Place, whose CEO is Shai Agassi. They are partnering with Renault
to provide the vehicles and electric power companies to supply the energy.
The first three locations are Israel (solar power), Denmark (wind power), and
California Bay Area (unknown power source). The batteries will be Li ion
batteries. 9
6) Utilize liquid natural gas (LNG) and compressed natural gas (CNG) as an
alternative fuel for the trucking industry. Thirty percent of US highway fuel
consumption is from trucking. This is part of the T. Boone Pickens Plan. 1 0
CNG also could be used for buses, taxis, fleet vehicles, railroads and private
vehicles. 1 1 LNG could be used for urban buses. LNG is not a good option
for private vehicles because of their intermittent use, and the requirement to
keep the LNG storage tank at cryogenic temperatures. Natural gas is as
safe as gasoline or diesel fuels for transportation. 1 2 {For additional
information about natural gas safety see footnote included with reference 12}
Natural gas should be part of an interim solution for energy independence.
7) Railroads should be electrified and expanded especially for the
transporting of products. (This requires expansion of low CO 2 emissions
electricity generation capacity.)
8) New electricity generation capacity should be renewable sources such as
nuclear, wind, solar, enhanced geothermal, wave, etc. {Fifty percent of
current electricity generation in the US is from coal-fired power plants.} The
process of carbon collection and sequestration 1 3 (CCS) of the CO 2 power
10
plant emissions doesn’t appear to be cost effective and technically viable for
the vast quantities of CO 2 underground storage required for the world’s coal-
fired power plants emissions. However, if successful, it would serve as a
good transition until renewable energy sources can be brought on-stream to
replace all the coal-fired power plants by about 2050. Natural gas is an
alternative for electricity generation, which is less polluting (SOx, NOx and
mercury) and creates less GHGs than coal per kilowatt-hour generated.
9) Investigate algae as means of carbon capture of CO 2 as well as recycling
of the product as a feedstock for liquid bio-fuels. 1 4 Algae have been on
Earth for hundreds of millions of years, and the microscopic, single-cell
plants are the fastest growing form of life on the planet. They are the
Earth’s most efficient converters of CO 2 to oxygen and biomass using
photosynthesis.
10) The Council on Competitiveness, a US non-profit made up of leaders
from U.S. companies, universities, labor organizations and national
laboratories, recommended that President Obama initiate the following 100-
Day Energy Action Plan for America: “{a} mandate US government purchase
products and services to meet the highest energy technology and efficiency
standards….; {b} create a $200 billon national “clean energy” bank to support
….sustainable energy solutions…; {c} knit the current patchwork of
regulations and oversight into a seamlessly connected electrical power
highway that is technologically capable of allowing both on and off ramps for
all energy sources thereby securing the national grid …….; {d} develop and
utilize all sources of energy in America in a sustainable way……; {e} Fill the
workforce pipeline with skilled workers….; and {f} increase R and D….” 1 5
Only a small portion has been initiated in 2009 by the Obama Administration.

5.0 < CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLLUTION >

5.1 FACTS
1) Carbon dioxide [CO 2 ] in the earth’s atmosphere is a green house gas
(GHG) that traps heat from the sun and has stabilized temperatures on the
planet over the last two billion years to support the evolution of life.
2) The anthropocene era, which started in the late 18 t h century with the
invention of the steam engine, is described as the period when humankind
started to first have an effect on the earth’s climate and ecosystems. The
surface temperature of the earth has been rising since that time.
3) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United
Nations released its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in November 2007,
Valencia, Spain, which states the following. “Warming of the climate system
is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice
and rising global average sea level.” 1
4) Ice-core samples show that the CO 2 concentration is higher today than it
has been in the last 650,000 years. There are peaks and valleys in the
concentration of the GHG’s (carbon dioxide [CO 2 ], methane [CH 4 ] and nitrous
oxide [N 2 O]) from these data over time, but all are highest now. 2
5) Decreases in the Earth’s orbit around the sun has led to global warming in
the past and in turn evaporation of CO 2 from the ocean (analogous to a
reduction of CO 2 dissolved in a carbonated beverage as temperature
increases) that lead to further global surface temperature increases in a
11
positive or accelerating feedback loop. All the Earth’s ice melted about fifty
million years ago. At that time the Indian subcontinent plate moving north at
a rate of about 20 cm/year plowed up carbonate sediment from the ocean
floor, which released large quantities of CO 2 into the atmosphere, also
causing global warming. When the Indian subcontinent eventually slammed
into the Asian plate, it caused the buckling of the Asian crust and formation
of the Himalayan Mountains and the Tibetan Plateau. With diminished CO 2
emissions and an increase in the Earth’s orbit around the sun global cooling
was initiated. It took about fifteen million years before ice formed again on
Antarctica. 3
6) Today the anthropogenic forcing function (sun’s energy in watts/meter 2 )
for global warming is many times that of the orbit effect. “Global dimming”
(caused by atmospheric particulate and pollution) reduces the anthropogenic
forcing function in half (i.e., the global temperature rise is only 50% of that
calculated if there were not global dimming). 4
7) Thomas Friedman in a talk 5 about his most recent book uses the analogy
between the Earth’s temperature change and that of the human body. For
example, a change in the body temperature from 98.6 o F to 100.6 o F (increase
of 2 o F above normal) a person doesn’t feel very good, but it is not a big
problem. However, if their body temperature increased to 102.6 o F (increase
of 4 o F or 2 o C above normal) they would have to go to the hospital, and it
could be life-threatening. So it is also with the Earth.
8) Melting of polar ice is a positive feedback mechanism for accelerating the
temperature rise on earth because of ice’s excellent reflective characteristics
of the sun’s energy compared to that of the ocean. 6
9) Another positive feedback mechanism for global warming results from
deforestation, drought and fire in rain forests. Deforestation is one of the
major causes of CO 2 concentration increases in the atmosphere.
Combustion of the forest creates CO 2 and the elimination of the trees
removes a source of CO 2 sequestration, a double whammy.
10) A third positive feedback or self-reinforcing or accelerating mechanism
for global warming is the melting of the tundra, which releases methane
(CH 4 ), a gas 21 times more effective as a GHG than CO 2 . 6 The tundra
contains organic material that has rotted, and has been frozen for over
several hundred thousand years. Once the tundra starts to thaw, the
methane evaporates, which increases the methane concentration in the
atmosphere. In turn that increases the surface temperature of Earth, so
more of the tundra melts and more of the GHG evaporates. It’s a vicious
circle.
11) The ocean absorbs CO 2 from the atmosphere, but as it does, the ocean
becomes more acidic and eventually its carrying capacity is reduced because
the solubility of CO2 decreases as pH is lowered (more acidic). This is
another self-reinforcing or accelerating mechanism that can lead to global
warming.
12) Consequences of earth surface temperature rise will be vast including
the following: {a} more severe weather events; {b} expansion of arid land
(e.g., Sahel region of Africa); {c} melting of glaciers that will reduce global
fresh water availability (e.g., in India, Pakistan and China for crops and
human use when the Asian glaciers are gone); {d} ocean rise causing
displacement of humanity (e.g., Bangladesh); {e} spread of tropical diseases
further away from the equator (e.g., malaria); {f} extinction of plant and
12
animal species due to inability to adapt to climate change. We are seeing
this already in hurricanes, forest fires, droughts, floods and diseases in
trees.

5.2 ACTION PLAN

1) Reduce GHG emissions from humankind activity so as to stabilize CO 2
concentration in the atmosphere at ~350ppm. Priorities on resources for
technological development and implementation, and cooperation among
nation-states will be required. We must transition to renewable energy
sources that do not generate GHG’s and conserve energy through
sustainable design solutions and mass transit. The US as the only
superpower and the second largest emitter of GHG gases into the
atmosphere, should take the lead in this endeavor.
2) Developed countries assist developing countries in implementation.
3) Stop deforestation and plant trees. {Tropical deforestation is the 2 n d
largest cause of global warming after burning fossil fuels.}
4) Establish a “carbon cap-and-trade” system in a worldwide market economy
overseen by the United Nations. In cooperation government entities would
mandate the maximum emissions allowable [cap] by year, and free-market
entities would develop appropriate technologies to meet the caps, or would
buy credits [trade] from other business entities that have reduced emissions
below mandated requirements or pay the government for not meeting the
mandated levels. In a free-market the best, proven emissions technologies
become a source of income for those business entities with the know-how.)
The cap-and-trade system initiated in the EU in 2005 has not been
successful at reducing GHGs because the credits were “free” to the largest
polluters (grandfather clause: you are not penalized for being a large polluter
in the past). Also, it did not cover the smaller entities that contribute about
50% to the EU emissions. The carbon credits must be auctioned off to the
highest bidder. In 2006 California passed a law for a cap and trade process
that mandates a 25% reduction in GHG’s from 2006 levels by 2020. This law
also applies to electricity purchased by California entities from other Western
states.
5) As a preferred alternative to 4) above, initiate Peter Barnes’ idea 7 of a
“carbon cap-and-dividend” system which would include the “true” cost of the
products we consume. This idea is based on the principle that the citizenry
owns the atmosphere and that if an entity or household wants to add carbon
to the atmosphere it has to pay to do it. Those with a small carbon footprint
would receive a monthly dividend, while those with a large carbon footprint
would make a carbon emissions payment into a trust fund (run by
government or a nonprofit entity) that would redistribute the dividends to
individuals. The “sky” trust would auction off the carbon emission permits
annually, and there would be fewer each year (reducing GHGs). The cost to
the carbon emitters and their customers would go up, but the dividend
benefit would also increase. Therefore, electricity, natural gas and gasoline
prices would increase, but end-users would get increased dividends to
compensate for the price increases. Through market forces customers would
also be encouraged to reduce their carbon footprint so as to increase their
individual dividend. Democratic processes of the United States could
mandate this option, and then eventually try to get it applied worldwide. Dr.
George Lakoff describes the concept of everyone owning the air as a
13
“cognitive” policy. 8 Giving a tax rebate instead of a dividend, may have the
same economic impact, but the idea of everyone owning the air is a change
in our mindset. Could this change in mindset apply also to who owns the
water? Privatization is becoming the norm for water.

6.0 < POPULATION >

6.1 FACTS 1
1) The world’s population in 2008 is 6.7 billion people. In the years between
2000 and 2008 the world population grew by 700 million people, which is
equivalent to adding the people from two United States or one Europe to the
planet. Over the last hundred years the world population has increased by
five billion people.
2) Chindia (China + India) contains 37% of the world’s population, Asia 60%
and the fifteen largest countries 65%.
2) Since the publication of Dr. Paul Ehrlich’s “Population Bomb” forty years
ago, the world population has increased by three billion people. That is
equivalent to population growth from the dawn of humankind to 1960. His
prediction of mass famine in the 1970’s and 1980’s caused by overpopulation
did not occur because of the “green revolution” attributable to tremendous
agricultural improvements. The agricultural improvements resulted from
high-yield seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and irrigation; the later three are
under stress now or will be in the near future, as discussed earlier.
3) Both total fertility rate (TFR) and population growth rate increase with
increases in the “under-five” mortality rate (data from 150 countries) as
shown in scatter plots. 2 Although counterintuitive, high child mortality rate
leads to overpopulation of an area or country because the total fertility rate
increases at a higher rate than the “under-five” mortality rate. Deteriorating
economic conditions result because of people getting a smaller piece of the
“acreage pie.” Sub-Saharan Africa has this problem with TFR of greater than
five.
4) Although controversial in a few countries, family planning policies, such
as providing contraception and women’s health services, empower families to
lower the fertility rate. 2 This has been accomplished in much of Asia and
North Africa.
5) Much of the developed world and China have a TFR less than two, or
below replacement rate.

6.2 ACTION PLAN

1) Increase financial support for family planning services in developing
regions such as sub-Saharan Africa. The UN Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs) set by the United Nations cannot be achieved unless family planning
services are made readily available in the poorest countries. 3
2) Provide funds to achieve the UN Millennium Development Goal of
reducing by two thirds (2/3) the mortality rate among children under the age
of five by 2015. 4 Achieving this goal should lead to stabilizing the world
population which results from the opposite effect of the information
presented above in Section 6.1 3). In other words, reducing child mortality
rate leads to reduced population growth and population stabilization.

14
7.0 < POVERTY >

7.1 FACTS
1) The World Bank has estimated that 1.4 billion people lived in extreme
poverty in 2005 (living on less than $1.25/day/person) compared to 1.9
billion people in 1981. In 2005 a total of 2.6 billion people lived on less than
$2/day/person. 1 Therefore, in 2005 forty percent of the world’s population
lived in poverty.
2) Poverty has many self-reinforcing (accelerating) or positive feedback
mechanisms. It is referred to as the “poverty trap” or the “perfect storm.” A
set of small nations—mostly in sub-Saharan Africa—have remained
desperately poor while middle-income nations have become wealthier in
terms of GDP per capita. 2 The features of the poverty trap include {a} high
birth rate, {b} high child mortality rate, {c} water scarcity, {d} nonproductive
land, {e} disease, {f} depletion of fish and {g} environmental degradation.
These factors prevent economic development for those in extreme poverty,
and the gap between the rich and poor grows larger. Hopelessness, violence
and conflict result. 2 The Darfur region of western Sudan is a prime
example.

7.2 ACTION PLAN

1) Reduce by half the proportion of people living in extreme poverty by
2015. 3 (MDG)
2) Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including
women and young people by 2015. 3 (MDG)
3) Provide the “seed” money to regions such as sub-Saharan Africa to boost
agricultural production like the “green revolution” of India as a start for
expanding economic development and self-sufficiency.

8.0 < HEALTH AND LONGEVITY >

8.1 FACTS
1) The average life expectancy in the wealthiest countries is 79 years, while
that in Africa is only 45 years. 1 Africa is burdened disproportionately with
infectious diseases including HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis.
2) Although counterintuitive, high child mortality rates lead to high population
growth rates because of high fertility rates. High birthrates result because
parents want to be sure they have at least one offspring to take care of them
when they are old. There is no government safety net for older people in the
developing countries such as Social Security and Medicare as there is in
developed countries. 2
3) Due to the vast interconnectivity of humanity the probability of a new
pandemic such as avian flu is very likely.

8.2 ACTION PLAN

1) MDGs to be achieved by 2015: {a} reduce by two-thirds the mortality rate
for children under five, {b} reduce by three-fourths the maternal mortality
ratio, {c} provide universal access to reproductive health, {d} halt and begin
to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS and malaria. 3

15
2) Distribute insecticide-treated bed nets to prevent mosquitoes from biting
children thus preventing malaria.
3) Eradicate polio. The World Health Organization (WHO), Rotary
International, Turner UN Foundation, Gates Foundation and UNICEF are
working cooperatively to eliminate the wild poliovirus from the planet.
4) Public health entities must be financially supported to address new
viruses that could jump from other species to humans, and then mutate so as
to be contagious among humans. The 1918-19 Spanish influenza pandemic
would spread much faster today than it did ninety years ago when it killed
over 50 million of the world’s population. WHO is very concerned about a
pandemic resulting from the H1N1 virus (swine influenza).

9.0 < ECONOMY >

9.1 FACTS
1) The capitalist economic system has provided a vastly improved quality of
life for the middle class over the last two centuries in developed countries
including the US, Canada, EU and Japan.
2) With globalization the middle class of populous countries of the
developing world including China, India, Russia and Brazil desire the same
consumption of goods and services that the middle class has enjoyed in the
capitalist, developed world. 1
3) A global recession is likely for 2008-09, which may postpone temporarily
the increased consumption desires of the developing world. However, with
anticipated economic growth in the future for the middle classes of China
and India, it would require an eight-fold increase of the current consumption
rate of the Earth’s resources to reach parity with the US middle class.
4) Global resources are finite. See Section 11.0 below.
5) In 2003-08 the free-market world economy without significant governance
demonstrated that greed and high leveraging of debt instruments led to
losses and panic in the financial markets. Actions taken by governments to
stabilize the world economy included providing large loans to corporate
entities and shared private/government ownership of some corporate entities
that had taken on too much risk. These global governance actions may have
been necessary, but were they fair and just?

9.2 ACTION PLAN

More US and global economic governance must be implemented in the
capitalist economic system. Transparency of corporate entities and their
financial instruments should be part of this enhanced governance for the
common good.

10.0 < ECOSYSTEMS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT >

10.1 FACTS
1) A sustainable society is defined as meeting the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own
needs. 1

16
2) Economic growth became the indispensable ideology of governments in
the 20 t h Century. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was paramount,
and capitalism won the competition against socialism and communism. 2
3) The planet’s “natural capital” (natural resources) is being depleted by
humanity at an unsustainable rate. 3
4) The planet’s natural resources are finite. Economic costs are calculated
on the basis of human value-add, and do not include the natural resource
cost, so the “true” costs are not considered in pricing. 4
5) Albert Einstein said, “The most powerful force in the universe is compound
interest” or compound growth rate, which is exponential. It may be the
enemy of humanity on our finite planet.
6) The current economic model of continuous growth will not work in the
future. A free-market economy (capitalism) is efficient at producing high
value-add goods at minimum cost, but at the expense of a widening gap
between the rich and the poor. Increasing consumption of goods and
services by the wealthy when a finite resource exists, will lead to hostility
and chaos on the earth. (Over forty percent of the world’s population lives in
poverty.)
7) Dr. Herman Daly’s three laws for material and energy sustainability
require economies to meet three criteria: “{a} rates of use of renewable
resources do not exceed the rates of regeneration, {b} rates of use of
nonrenewable resources do not exceed the rates at which sustainable
renewable substitutes are developed and {c} rates of pollution emissions do
not exceed the assimilative capacity of the environment. 5
8) In 2000 two percent of the world’s population owned 50% of the world’s
household assets. The poorest fifty percent of the world’s population owned
just one percent of the global household assets. This inequity is not
acceptable.
9) Capitalism has many variations across the planet. Unless its free-market
aspect that is dominant is restrained it will “guarantee the destruction of the
majority of the planet’s diversity, quite probably including us.” 6
10) Adam Smith’s economic model, which states that self-interested
individual actions lead to positive outcomes, has worked over the last few
centuries. However, another important human characteristic is that people
are motivated not only by self-interest, but also by the desire to participate in
a larger community. 7
11) Deforestation has many consequences that negatively impact the
environment including {a} extinction of species, {b} rainfall redistribution and
{c} loss of carbon sequestration and resultant global warming.
12) Companies can reduce their ecological footprint. For example, the movie
rental firm Netflix, began to offer movies on-line in 2007, reducing the need
for packaging, stores and trips to a rental store. 8
13) Increase penetration of bus rapid transit (BRT) into more cities. 9 It
utilizes expedited bus lanes and loading systems that are much cheaper than
underground metro systems. Cities already using BRT includes Quito,
Bogotá, Jakarta, Beijing and Mexico City.

10.2 ACTION PLAN

1) MDGs to be achieved by 2015: {a} Integrate the principles of sustainable
development into country policies and programs; {b} reverse loss of
ecosystems such as forests; and {c} reduce biodiversity loss rate.
17
2) With finite resources a system intervention will be necessary for
sustainable economic development. This will be discussed in more detail
below.
3) Improve sanitation by considering the use of dry composting toilets,
especially where water is scarce.

11.0 < SECURITY >

11.1 FACTS
1) World military expenditures are estimated to have been $1.34 trillion in
2007 (current dollars), which is 2.5% of the world gross product (WGP). The
US with $550 billion [constant 2005 dollars] in military expenditures
represents about 40% of the total, and the top 15 countries {including UK =
$60B, China = $58B, France = $54B [constant 2005 dollars]} represents
about 80% of the total. 1
2) Food, water, shelter, health, education, energy and environmental security
are very important for the common good of humanity. The costs of these
forms of security are small (~$225B/year) compared to that of the military
expenditures (~$1.34T/year). 2 , 3

11.2 ACTION PLAN

1) Lobby our governments for a new tax structure that increases the “use
taxes” on unsustainable activities like the use of gasoline for transportation,
but lowers income taxes. Germany has done this by lowering income taxes,
which encourages work, and increasing energy taxes, which discourages
energy consumption and the resulting pollution.
2) Divert 15% of the world’s military budget to the long-term security of our
planet. Humanity’s food, water, shelter, health, education, energy and
environmental security are an excellent way to have cooperation among
nation-states and reduce the need for military security.

12.0 < CATASTROPHIC FAILURE >

12.1 FACTS
1) Nuclear proliferation is a serious risk for humankind. Rogue nation-states
or terrorist organizations that acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD)
could affect the striving for peace and world interdependency. The Nuclear
Non-proliferation Treaty was established in 1970 and has been signed by
187 nations. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was established
to verify through inspections that all nations are in compliance with the
Treaty. 1 Biological weapons are another concern.
2) War and genocide become greater risks as the world population grows.
3) Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are inherent in the life of our planet.
4) An asteroid collision with Earth could cause catastrophic damage or
extinction of all life forms on the planet, depending upon its mass. Earth is
protected by Jupiter, which has many times higher gravitational pull than
does Earth, so asteroids or comets are much more likely to hit Jupiter.

18
12.2 ACTION PLAN
1) The United Nations needs to be strengthened to provide diplomatic
leadership and military assistance to prevent war, genocide or other
catastrophic failures on the planet.
2) Continue to reduce nuclear weapons stockpiles on Earth.
3) Improve the predictability of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions through
increased knowledge of the geological sciences.
4) Developed countries should partner to provide technology to intercept an
asteroid or comet and change its trajectory, if a collision with Earth is
eminent.

B. HUMAN CONTENTMENT

1.0 < SPIRITUALITY AND MORAL COMPASS >

1.1 FACTS
1) About 85% of the world population has a religious belief. Only 2.5% of
the world population consider themselves atheists, while about 12% consider
themselves nonreligious, who are mainly agnostics. 1 Nonreligious people
are those who derive their worldview and value system primarily from secular
and cultural systems rather than traditional religious systems. 2 China and
the former Soviet Union contain a majority of the nonreligious. Communism
would be one example of a nonreligious, cultural system.
2) Spirituality addresses humanity's ultimate nature and purpose, “not only
as material biological organisms, but as beings with a unique relationship to
that which is perceived to be beyond both time and the material world.” 3
3) A “moral compass” is what humanity calls its value system to differentiate
right from wrong, fair from unfair and just from unjust.
4) The “Golden Rule”, “do unto others, as you would have them do unto you”
or “love your neighbor as yourself,” is an expression of a moral value that is
understood by 90+% of humanity. However, the understanding doesn’t make
it a reality.

1.2 ACTION PLAN

1) Encourage cooperation among religious communities for the “common
good.”
2) Promote a healthy approach to giving.
4) A “new consciousness” is needed to make human welfare a reality for all
of humanity. 4

2.0 < SOCIAL CONNECTEDNESS >

2.1 FACTS AND IDEAS

1) When the people of a nation-state achieve basic economic needs, their
well-being is more dependent on issues such as social connectedness and
life purpose and meaning. 1
2) Multiple approaches have been used to characterize human well-being
that is more inclusive than an economic parameter such as Gross World
Product (GWP) or GDP. Data show that “life satisfaction” (or other similar
19
indices) for developed countries (e.g., USA, UK and Japan) don’t increase as
the GDP of the country increases. 2 However, in poorer, developing
countries there is a direct correlation of increasing human well-being with
increasing GDP.
3) Dr. Paul Raskin envisions a “Great Transition” where a new set of values
ascends: {a} human solidarity, {b} quality of life, and {3} respect for nature.
In this vision, solidarity is the foundation for a more egalitarian social
contract, poverty eradication and democratic political engagement at all
levels. Human fulfillment in all its dimensions is the measure of human well-
being displacing consumerism and the false metric of GDP. An ecological
sensibility that understands humanity as part of a wider community of life
which is the basis for true sustainability. 3 . 4
4) Our culture has a mentality of “winning” and “control” as evidenced by our
sports and hierarchical structures.

2.2 ACTION PLAN

1) Intergovernmental organizations, transnational corporations and civil
society act in concert with non-governmental organizations, spiritual
communities and other citizen groups to establish policies to encourage
human connectedness and meaning in the lives of their citizens and
employees. 4 , 5
2) It is critical that there is wide public awareness of the need for a paradigm
shift that will propagate values that will enhance the sustainability of the
Earth system for future generations. 5 The EU has started down this path.

C. HUMAN FREEDOM

1.0 < EDUCATION >

1.1 FACTS
1) Illiteracy is high in developing countries. The World Bank will provide
financial assistance to any country that has a plan for universal primary
education.
2) Professor Amartya Sen, Nobel Prize Economist, believes that illiteracy
and innumeracy are in themselves forms of physical insecurity - which
results in inequality between men and women, lack of rights and poor
understanding of health issues such as the spread of HIV/AIDS. These
result in more deaths and greater hardship than international terrorism. 1
3) From a scatter plot of about 150 countries it can be seen that the higher
the percentage of girls in secondary education, the lower the total fertility
rate (TFR). 2

1.2 ACTION PLAN

1) MDGs to be achieved by 2015: {a} ensure that all girls and boys complete
a full course in primary education, {b} promote gender equality in education
and empower women.
2) Adult literacy training should be promoted.

20
2.0 < FREEDOM >

2.1 FACTS
1) Human beings “have the right to live their lives and raise their children in
dignity, free from hunger and from the fear of violence, oppression, or
injustice. Democratic and participatory governance based on the will of the
people best assures these rights.” 1
2) Liberty improves human well-being.
3) Accountability is a corollary to freedom of choice.

2.2 ACTION PLAN

1) Provide opportunities for all humanity to have freedom of choice without
using war as a tool to achieve it.

IV. SYSTEM ASSESSMENT AND INTERVENTION

FOR SUSTAINED, HUMAN WELL-BEING
Section IV utilizes the principles of systems analysis to paint a broad-brush
description of human well-being (HWB) based on the contributions of the
sixteen elements described in Section III. This section also estimates the
effect of intervening in the existing system and creating new models for
organized human activity. The goal is to achieve sustained, human well-
being.

The pioneering work in the analysis of systems was done by Dr. Jay W.
Forrester 1 at MIT and was called systems dynamics. Dr. Donella Meadows
et al. published “Limits to Growth” in 1972 utilizing systems modeling
techniques developed by Dr. Forrester to make predictions about the Earth’s
sustainability. Their forecasts from the computer simulations were
controversial. Some believe that modeling of economic and social systems
is not feasible because of their complexity. The book’s 30-year update 2 ,
reinforces their original conclusions on “limits to growth,” in which they
predict the global limits will be realized by about 2012 in what they call
growth “overshoot and subsequent decline in societal welfare” unless
sustainability actions are taken. (Overshoot means to go too far, to go
beyond limits accidentally – without intention. 3 ) Economic examples of
overshoot and subsequent decline in human welfare in recent years include
the “tech bubble” of March 2000 and the current “housing and credit
disaster.” Greed has been a major contributor.

The book includes their methodology and background for ways to quantify
indicators of human well-being and ecological footprint. They use different
scenarios for their model (named World3) to simulate human welfare in the
21 s t century. With technology improvements (e.g., pollution abatement,
improved resource utilization and improved land yield) they show that the
global improvements delay overshoot and collapse of human well-being until
later in the 21 s t century, but don’t prevent it. For these scenarios a “food
crisis” is usually the reason for collapse. “Markets” (e.g., oil and fisheries) is
another factor that contributes to overshoot and collapse of human well-
21
being. Scenarios that limit growth (e.g., population or per capita industrial
output) are also shown to be unsustainable. However, combining the
technology and social system mandates 4 does yield a sustainable high
human well-being for the average person. Increasing per capita consumption
for this later scenario could lead to collapse. Delaying action could be
critical. (World3 assumes no war, no conflict, no corruption, no mistakes,
and no “black swans.”)

Beware! A “black swan” is a term defined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his

book “The Black Swan” 5 to describe a rare, unexpected occurrence that
produces a very large consequence on a system or activity. The black swan
occurrence may completely negate the art of forecasting and predicting.
Black swans are prone to intervene in social and economic systems and
provide an unexpected benefit or disaster. Two examples of beneficial black
swans that were not predicted include the laser and the internet. They both
have had dramatic effects on our economic and social systems, and were
achieved by “tinkering,” not planning for technical break-throughs. A
negative black swan example was the terrorist attack on the World Trade
Center and the Pentagon on 9/11/2001. Should we have anticipated 9/11
and ensured that all commercial airlines had locked, bulletproof cockpit
doors by 9/10/2001? After black swans occur there is a human retrospective
distortion that claims that they were predictable. Keep this in mind as you
read the following about qualitative assessing the key elements to sustain
human well-being.

1.0 < SYSTEM ASSESSMENT >

1.1 DESCRIPTION
1) The purpose of this section is to provide a conceptual description to
characterize the complexities of using a systems approach to assess the
best ways to achieve human well-being (HWB). It is hoped that system
analysis experts with hard data on the algorithms for these elements and
their complex interactions will take the challenge to continue to advance our
understanding through their mathematical modeling of the system.
2) The sixteen elements described in Section III above have a direct affect
on human well-being. Unknown elements that effect HWB, termed “black
swans,” 1 may be even more important to the future understanding of this
complex system.
3) This global system is full of both positive (self-reinforcing) and negative
(self-correcting) feedback loops as have been discussed in Section III.
4) Complicating factors for system assessment include {a} thresholds
(sudden displacement of the dependent variable for a small change in one of
the independent variables; also referred to as a nonlinear response or
exponential change) and {b} time delays (long time constants of the system
that makes it difficult to determine “cause and effect” in a complex system). 2
5) Food, water and shelter should be a “right” for all humans, but with a finite
planet, there can be scarcity because of many different reasons that have
been discussed previously. For sustained, human well-being (HWB) trade-
offs and the discovery of synergies among these different elements are
required.

22
1.2 ASSESSMENT OF THE TANGLED WEB
1) Improved models need to be created to attempt a better understanding of
our Earth system and its impact on goals such as human well-being. 3 As
was stated previously, the best comprehensive model to-date is described in
“Limits to Growth” and named World3. 4 This is important literature to read,
but be cautious because it is only a model!
2) The purpose of the work below is to estimate which elements make the
larger contributions to human well-being so as to have a framework for
decision making. Without having actual algorithms that describe the
changes in human well-being over large ranges attributable to the sixteen
elements, we can only make rough estimates of the element effects. In
Figure [1] below it can be seen clearly that the sixteen elements are not
independent, but “interdependent” elements. That is, these elements not
only directly affect human well-being as was described in Section III, but
also affect other elements, which in turn affect human well-being (HWB).
Therefore, we are dealing with a very complex system, which could be
described as a “tangled web.”
3) It is certain that food, water and health are required for sustaining human
life.
4) From an assessment of the tangled web in Figure [1], it is proposed that
the contribution to human well-being of each of the interdependent elements
is the sum of the following four factors:
{1} Is the element necessary to sustain human life? Yes or No. {Represented
by Wj as shown in Table [1] and Equation [1] below} plus
{2} Description of the dependency of HWB on the element. Is the
relationship linear or nonlinear? If nonlinear, does it have an exponential
growth effect on HWB or an exponential decay effect on HWB? Figure [2]
illustrates these different types of effects. Xj in Table [1] and Equation [1]
represents the magnitude of this effect. {For example, food is needed to
sustain life, but when there is enough food available for everyone, then
food’s importance to HWB declines exponentially (exponential decay). If
population grows yearly by a given percentage, it leads to exponential
increases in the number of people. As shown in Section III, population grew
from 1 billion people in 1900 to 6 billion people in 2000 (exponential growth).
Using the rule of 72 and a population growth rate of only 1% per year, the
global population would be 12 billion people in 2072 and 24 billion in 2144.
These are unsustainable numbers of people on this planet. Therefore, it is
important to know the general mathematical relationship between HWB and
the element.} plus
{3} Elements that have a direct effect on another interdependent element
that in-turn affects HWB are also very important; Yj in Table [1] reflects the
magnitude of this effect. {Count the number of arrows leaving an element in
Figure [1] to determine the magnitude of the Yj} plus
{4} Elements that have self-sustaining or accelerating feedback loops with
other interdependent elements also are important; Zj in Table [1] represents
the magnitude of this effect. Note in Figure [1] that interdependent elements
that affect each other (shown as parallel arrows) create self-sustaining, or
accelerating feedback loops. For example, energy ÅÆ climate change;
ecosystems ÅÆ climate change; poverty ÅÆ population;
food ÅÆ energy; education ÅÆ poverty; and education ÅÆ population.
That’s what makes these elements so important to human sustainability.
23
 Figure [1] The Tangled Web

FOOD SECURITY
3/1 1/- SHELTER
ECO-
SYSTEMS 2/-
3/1

CATA- WATER
STROPHIC 5/-
FAILURE
5/-

ECONOMY
2/-

CLIMATE
CHANGE
8/2

ENERGY
5/2

POVERTY
3/2
HEALTH
1/-

EDUCA-
SPIRIT- TION
UALITY
5/2
9/-
POP- FREEDOM
SOCIAL 3/-
ULATION CONNECT-
3/2 EDNESS
5/-

Figure [1]: Tangled Web of Interdependent Elements that Affect Human Well-Being
(Number of Direct Affects on Other Elements/Self-Reinforcing Feedback Loops)

24
 Table [1]: Effect of Interdependent Elements on Human Well-Being (HWB)
Wj Xj Yj Zj
Elemen t Effec t Self-Sustaining
Required Effect of Increase on HWB:* No. of Elements or Accelerating
to Sustain in Element 1 ) L ine ar , Directly Affected Feedback ( Y j + Z j)
j Element Human Life Magnitude on HWB 2 ) E x p D ec a y by this Element Loops T ot a l
(Yes/No) (Positive/Negative) 3 ) E x p Grow th (See Figure 1) (Figure 1)
1 Food Y + Exponential Decay 3 1 4
2 Water Y + Exponential Decay 5 5
3 Shelter N + Exponential Decay 2 2
4 Energy N + Estimate Linear 5 2 7
5 Climate Change N - Exponential Grow th 8 2 10
6 Population N - Exponential Grow th 3 2 5
7 Poverty N - Exponential Grow th 3 2 5
8 Health and Longevity Y + Exponential Decay 1 1
9 Economy N + Exponential Decay 2 2
10 Ecosystems/Sustain. N + Estimate Exp Growth 3 1 4
11 Security N + Estimate Exp Growth 1 1
12 Catastrophic Failure N - Estimate Exp Growth 5 5
13 Spirituality/Morality N + Estimate Exp Growth 9 9
14 Social Connectedness N + Estimate Linear 5 5
15 Education N + Estimate Linear 4 2 6
16 Freedom N + Estimate Linear 3 3
Total --> 62 12 74
Average --> 3.9 0.6 4.6
* Based on references used in Sections III and IV

The above assessment can be described by Equation [1] below with the
summary of results shown in Table [1] above.

[1] HWBCj (Element Contribution to HWB) = Wj + Xj + (Yj + Zj)

where j represents a specific interdependent element (e.g., food, water,

etc.), Wj is a required condition for sustaining humanity, X j the type of effect
(linear or nonlinear) an element has on HWB, Yj is the number of direct
effects on other interdependent elements that in-turn affect human well-
being, and Zj is the number of self-reinforcing feedback loops for a given
element that influence human well-being.
5) Studying the results from Table [1], it is proposed that the top-nine priority
elements to pursue for achieving human well-being (HWB) include {1} food,
{2} water and {3} health as first priority. Others with high priority include
{4} climate change and pollution, {5} poverty, {6} population, {7} spirituality
and moral compass, {8} education, and {9} energy. The elements and
identifiers in bold in Table 1 are the ones concluded to be the higher priority
elements. This is a simplified approach to assess a complex system.
25
 HWB
+

Exponential Decay +
Linear +

Element
-
+

Linear -

- Exponential Growth -

Figure 2: Element Effects on Human Well-Being (HWB)

26
6) One takeaway from this assessment is the importance of spirituality and
moral compass. Since 85% of the world population is religious there should
be tremendous human and monetary resources available when mobilized to
solve many of the problems described in Section III. It is important to find a
goal(s) upon which all religious faiths can agree. Spirituality and moral
compass is in the broad category of “human contentment.” 5
7) The priorities for food, water, population, poverty, climate change and
energy in the assessment are in the broad category of “human physical
welfare.” 5
8) Education is also an important priority. It is under the third broad
5
category of “human freedom.”
9) Funding for many of these projects could come from diverting a mere 15%
of the $1.34 trillion spent by governments on the military annually as
described under the Security element in Section III. Militaries need partial
transformation into humanitarian mission teams.
10) The United Nations Millennium Development Goals, established in 2000,
interweave with the elements listed above, and are important to achieve by
2015.
11) We must heed the warnings of today to sustain humanity. The energy
crisis of the 1970’s was not heeded, and our children and future descendants
will reap the results of our ignorance.
12) With the world-wide monetary crisis and recession upon us in 2008-2009
it will be difficult to convince developed nations to use resources to improve
world-wide human well-being since so much is needed to deal with
maintaining HWB in developed countries. However, without a big effort,
eventually there will be worldwide chaos.

2.0 < SYSTEM INTERVENTION >

2.1 SYSTEM LEVERAGING HIERARCHY

Dr. Donella Meadows (deceased) developed a 12-point-hierarchy for
intervening or leveraging a system. 1 , 2 The leveraging factors along with
examples of appropriate actions for HWB are listed in descending order of
impact.
(1) Power to transcend paradigms (Ideas are needed to transition our Earth
system from a paradigm focused on consumption and economic development
to a paradigm based on sustainability and human values such as time
affluence.);
(2) Know the paradigm of the system. (Sustainable Earth and humanity);
(3) System goals (Sustainable human well-being);
(4) Self-organization (Power to add, delete, change system structure or
change anything lower on this hierarchic list - will be discussed below.);
(5) Rules of the system (create incentives {carbon cap-and-dividend},
punishments {carbon tax} and constraints {stabilize world population};
(6) Transparency of information flows. (e.g., quarterly audit of status of polio
eradication and actions planned; EIA and IEA are two reliable, nonpartisan
sources of reliable information for energy production, applications and
costs);
(7) Positive feedback (self-reinforcing or accelerating) mechanisms (e.g.,
melting sea ice increases ocean heat absorption due to reduced reflectivity
27
of the ocean water compared to ice {albedo effect}, which leads to increasing
temperature and more ice melting and in turn more heat absorption and
higher temperatures. That self-reinforcing mechanism can lead to a runaway
system with accelerating temperature rise and eventually chaos.);
(8) Negative feedback (self-regulating) mechanism (e.g., power of big
business calls for power of big government; economic globalization requires
global governance);
(9) Time constants of the system (e.g., as the under 5-year-old mortality rate
declines, total fertility rate drops, but at least twenty years or more later);
(10) Material stocks and flows (Many cities have traffic congestion and high
pollution in urban areas. The cost and timeliness of constructing
underground subways is prohibitive. Bus rapid transit (BRT) utilizes
expedited bus lanes and loading systems that are much cheaper and reduce
congestion in urban areas as well as reducing CO 2 emissions.);
(11) Size of buffers (To maintain biodiversity more than a few of an
endangered species needs to be protected to insure sustainability of the
species.);
(12) Numbers or parameter details (Usually 95% of effort goes in this area,
but it is at the bottom of the list. For example, the financial budget of a
nonprofit entity is fixed based upon its income from donations. If it wants to
expand its programs, it either needs to reduce operating expenses or
increase contributions. It is difficult to increase projects or donations while
maintaining or cutting headcount. However, if a contributor to the nonprofit
can be encouraged to donate more because of a special project (s)he may
have a particular interest, it leverages an element further up the hierarchy
list. For example, a win-win results when an increasing percentage of girls
participate in secondary education since with education the total fertility rate
goes down and the poverty rate is also reduced. This leads to a higher
percentage of girls going to secondary school and a positive feedback
mechanism for education, population stabilization and reduced poverty.)

2.2 OTHER FACTS AND IDEAS

1) Humanity operates on a three-legged-stool system where the legs are
represented by the following three types of entities:
{a} for-profit corporations, {b} governments and inter-government
organizations and {c} non-government organizations and the citizenry.
2) For-profit businesses look short-term for maximizing profit for
shareholders and long-term for survival. They reinvent themselves and
synthesize efficient processes to obtain these goals. Many corporations
worldwide have been very successful with this objective. However, on
9/7/2008 US Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Hank Paulson, said about the
government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that “Because the
government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) are in conservatorship, they will
no longer be managed with the strategy to maximize common shareholder
returns, a strategy which historically encouraged risk-taking.”
3) Governments provide human services, security, stability and research,
development and planning to the citizenry with a goal of long-term survival.
The revenue for providing these services comes from taxation of the
citizenry.
4) Inter-government organizations provide a forum for resolving differences
among nation-states as well as provide services for member countries.
28
Member governments and NGOs fund the organizations. They also plan for
long-term survival. The most prominent inter-government entity is the United
Nations. It is a “global association of governments facilitating cooperation in
international law, security, economic development, and social equity.” Other
examples include the European Union and African Union.
5) Non-government organizations, citizenry-based groups, including non-
profit organizations (e.g., charities, churches, mosques, temples and
foundations) obtain their revenue from gifts and investments. They utilize
these assets to further their mission statements for the “common good.”
Some have narrow objectives while others have very general areas of
contribution. Some are “think tanks” whose deliverables are knowledge and
judgment to guide policies for governments, et al. They also plan for long-
term survival.
6) Returning to the system-leveraging concept described above, “self-
organization” is one of the high priority leveraging tools. New systems such
as “social entrepreneurship” and “social businesses” are just such leveraging
tools that can help in the long-term survival of humanity and our planet. They
can be thought of as additional legs or structural reinforcement for the
existing legs on the planet’s “stool” for improved human well-being.
7) Social entrepreneurs develop a concept such as the micro-credit idea of
Professor Mohammed Yunus, who won the Nobel Peace Prize jointly with
Grameen Bank in 2006. Thirty years ago he started with the idea of loaning
small amounts of money to poor women in Bangladesh for the purchase of
supplies (e.g., cloth) that they converted into a finished product (e.g.,
clothing). Upon selling their finished product they would repay the loan and
have a profit leftover for their family. They repeated the cycle over and over
again to improve their family’s financial condition. The Grameen bank was
the result. This model has been applied successfully all over the developing
world.
8) Ashoka, “citizen sector organization”, founded by Mr. Bill Drayton, has
funded over two thousand social entrepreneur fellows in over 60 countries
since 1981. 3 One or more citizens caring and organizing to “provide a
service” or “spark a change” are the active ingredients of a social
entrepreneur. As he articulates, the most important concept is “everyone a
changemaker”—aka citizen—role.” 4 Through Ashoka’s organization they
have developed a worldwide network of expertise to utilize this knowledge
base to apply these successful social models all over the world. Ashoka’s
success rate is outstanding. They provide funds to “changemakers” that have
a lasting impact across the globe. For example, “five years after start-up
launch 90% of Ashoka Fellows have seen independent institutions replicate
their innovation and over fifty percent have already changed national
policy. 4 , 5 This structural reinforcement for the Earth’s stool needs additional
funding to stabilize the planet. Foundations with the same focus include the
Skoll Foundation 6 and the Schwab Foundation for Social Entrepreneurship. 7
9) Social entrepreneurship has been recognized by many private foundations
as an important way to utilize their funds to improve the lives of humans in
an efficient business manner.
10) Dr. Yunus has also initiated what he calls a “social business,” which has
clear objectives and operates as a corporation with the purpose to serve
humanity for the “common good,” not profit-maximizing. The shareholders or
investors {a} establish a clear social mission statement, {b} provide funding
29
for start-up and {c} may participate in the day-to-day operation of the
business. As the business carries out its objectives it provides income for
local workers and products and services that humanity needs. The positive
cash flow resulting from subtracting expenses from revenues goes back into
growing the business and gradually repaying the investment contributed by
shareholders. There may be a small dividend of several percent per year,
also provided to the shareholder. Social business processes are just at the
development stage, and it will take creativity and diligence to establish the
optimum process. The Danon-Grameen Bank joint venture is a good
example of how this can be done. It produces Danon yogurt (formulated to
meet local customer tastes) in small manufacturing plants throughout
Bangladesh using locally produced milk and distributes through local village
sales personnel. Its employees are local residents and the product meets
the protein needs of the local population. 8
11) Similar to the social business idea discussed above is a corporation that
is designed to seamlessly integrate both social and financial purpose as
described by Dr. Allen White. 9 It is a new multi-stakeholder initiative in
which social purpose moves from the periphery to the core of the business.
Stakeholders include shareholders, employees, unions, suppliers, customers,
government, communities and future generations. This is a holistic approach
that corporations may transition to in the future.
12) David Korten has suggested a similar idea to Professor Yunus and Dr.
White. His idea is to charter a “public-benefit” corporation, which serves a
well-defined public purpose under strict rules of public accountability. It can
be chartered as either a for-profit or not-for-profit entity. The for-profit entity
would have to balance public and private interests. This would replace
today’s private-benefit corporation. 1 0
13) The Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility this year filed more
than 300 proxy resolutions on issues such as global warming, political
contributions, sexual discrimination, labor standards and executive pay. The
center’s real goal is not to win proxy votes, but to develop a dialogue with
top corporate executives. 1 1
14) “Soft” tools for system intervention include {a} visioning, {b} networking,
{c} truth telling, {d} learning and {e} loving. 1 2

2.3 ACTION PLAN

1) Provide leadership from global to local levels to make a paradigm shift
from consumption to sustainability and human values such as time affluence.
2) Provide private and public funding for structural reinforcement of
humanity’s “stool” to implement system intervention methods.
3) Change system goals from items like increased consumption to concepts
like social connectedness, poverty eradication and good health.
4) Become a social entrepreneur or donate through organizations like
Ashoka. This is a self-organizing system intervention.
5) Utilize the concept of social business or public-benefit corporations, and
invest in one or establish one. These new types of corporations could have
the largest long-term impact on our operating systems, and the future of
humanity because of their {a} goal setting based on real human need and
{b} implementation based on profit-maximizing business processes. This is a
“win-win” situation, where there is a positive feedback mechanism
intervening in the system for self-sustaining an entity as well as goal setting
30
and self-organization features that are high on the system intervention
priority list for human well-being.
6) With a flat world (globalization and increasing worldwide middle-class)
and an altruistic paradigm shift incorporating the concept of having “just
enough” consumption; and using some of the new organizational structures
suggested above, humanity may have “just enough” time to prevent collapse,
and achieve an acceptable sustainable quality of life in the broadest sense.
7) Incorporate new rules in the system to reward desired behavior by citizens
and entities. (e.g., carbon cap-and-dividend, carbon tax, solar energy tax
credits and population stabilization.)
8) Information transparency (accurate and timely) makes all people
accountable and the world flat (i.e., level playing field).

3.0 < SOJOURNERS ARE WE >

The “Big Bang” theory estimates that the universe was created about 13.7
billion years ago. Earth is about 4.5 billion years old, while life originated on
Earth about 4 billion years ago and homo sapiens appeared about 130,000
years ago. 1 With this timeline in mind, each of us is a temporary resident of
Earth or a sojourner. During our time here we are to use our individual and
collective bodies, minds and spirits to create a sustainable legacy that will
encourage reciprocity and interdependency within our species and between
humanity and an enduring planet. What actions do we take to provide this
for our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren? I suggest the
following:
1) Educate ourselves about the finiteness of our planet, and be introspective
in making decisions about the most important actions we can take, and then
do them.
2) Participate and learn from the Earth Intelligence Network. 2
3) Consider taking a leadership role in affecting a paradigm shift in humanity
from consuming to sustaining, and focusing on human values.
3) Think about how to share, reduce, reuse and recycle, and take action.
4) Form citizen groups to discuss alternative actions for our local areas, and
then go do them.
5) Engage governments and politicians! They must get it, if we are to
succeed.
6) Be in discussion groups with other religious faiths and cultures to seek
common ground to work on human well-being together.
7) Support the UN and NGOs in their human well-being programs.
8) Become a social entrepreneur or financially support them.
9) Enforce the global citizenship of for-profit businesses, and invest in social
businesses or public-benefit corporations.
10) Volunteer.

31
 V. REFERENCES

III. SUSTAINING HUMANITY: FACTS TO REMEMBER AND ACTIONS TO

TAKE
1 . Dr . J ohn Stu tz , “ The R ole o f We ll- Be ing in a Grea t T rans ition,” Te llus Ins titu te , 2006 ,
h t t p : / /w w w .g t in i t ia t i ve .o r g /d oc ume n ts / /PD FFIN AL S /1 0We l l Be ing . pdf ( view ed 11 /2 /20 08)
2 . D r . Me da r d Ga be l , “ B ig P ic t ure / S ma ll W or ld ,”
h ttp ://www .b ig pic turesma llw orld .co m /ind e x.sh tml

A. HUMAN PHYSICAL WELFARE

1.0 Food
1 . U ni t ed N a t io ns F oo d Sec ur i t y C o n fer ence , R om e, J u ne 3 - 5 , 20 08 ,
h ttp ://www .fa o .or g/foodc lima te /h lc- home /en / ( v iew ed 8 /1 0 /20 08)
2 . Les ter R . B r ow n , “ Pl an B 3.0 ,” p . 183 - 18 9 , W .W . N or to n & C o , N Y , 20 08 ,
h t t p : / /w w w .e ar th- po lic y . or g / Books / P B3 /C o n te n ts .h tm
3 . J e f fr e y D . Sac hs , “ C o mm on W e al t h ,” C h ap t er 6 , p . 15 0-1 51 , Pen qu in Press , N Y , 20 08
4 . R obe r t D iaz e t.al. “ Stu d y Shows Co n tinu e d Spr e ad o f ‘De ad Zo nes ’ ,” Scie nce , 8 / 15 /0 8
h ttp ://www .sc ienc eda ily.co m/re leas es /20 08 /0 8 /08 081 41 543 25 .h tm ( viewed 8 /29 /2 008 )
5 . N ic h ol as D . Kr is to f , “ R ais in g th e W or ld ’s I Q ,” D ec e mb er 4 , 2 008 ,
h t t p : / /w w w .n y t i mes .com / 20 08 /1 2 /0 4 /op in io n /0 4k r is to f .h tm l
6 . U ni ted Na tio ns M i lle nn iu m Deve lo pm en t G oa ls (MDG ’s)
h t t p : / /w w w .u n .or g /m il le nn iu mgo al s /i nde x . h tm l #
7 . Les ter R. Brow n , “ Plan B 3.0 ,” p .190 , W .W . Nor ton & Co , N Y, 2 008

2.0 Water
1. J e ffrey D . Sachs , “Common Wealth,” Ch apter 5, p.115ff, Penqu in Pr ess , N Y, 2008
2 . L e s t e r R . B r o w n , “ Pl a n B 3 .0 , ” C h a p te r 4 , p . 6 8 f f a n d C h a p te r 9 , p . 1 7 9 f f , W .W . N o r to n &
C o , N Y , 2 00 8 , h ttp ://www .e ar th- po l ic y.or g /Bo oks /PB3 /Co n ten ts .htm
3 . FLOW ( F or L o ve of W a t er ) , http://www.flowthefil m.co m/a bou twa ter ( viewed 11 /2 /2008 )
F i lm di r ec te d b y Ire na S a l ina , a va i lab le on D VD in D ec e mb er 200 8
4 . F r e d P e a r c e , “ W h e n t h e R i ver s R u n D r y ,” p.70ff, p. 201ff, Beacon Press , Bos ton, 2006
5 . I b i d . p .2 7 f f , p .1 0 8 f f, 2 0 0 6
6 . C l im a te C h ang e , W a t er a nd Fo od Sec ur it y , F ebr uary 2 008 ,
ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/m e e t i n g /0 1 3 /a i 7 8 3 e .p d f ( vi ew e d 8 /1 0/ 2 008 )
7 . J osep h Ve tte r , “Dry T i mes ,” Re ade r’s Diges t, Ma y 2 008
8. Op. c i t, Fred Pe arce, p.299f, 2006
9 . h t tp : / /e n. w iki ped ia .o r g /w iki /D r i p_ ir r ig a ti on ( v i ew ed 8 / 3 /20 08)
1 0 .h ttp ://www .u nep .or.jp /ie tc /p ublic a tions /tech pub lica tio ns /tech pub -8e /drip .asp
( v iew ed 8 /3 / 200 8)
1 1) Sa ndr a Pos tel , “Gr owi ng More Fo od wi th Less Water ,” Sci enti fic Amer ica n , Feb2001,
Volume284, Issue 2, p46-51
1 2) D Molde n , C de Fra i tu re – “Wo rld Wa ter Su pp ly an d De ma nd , 2 000 ,”
h t t p : / /w w w .i w m i .c g i a r .o r g ( viewed 8 /3 /2 008)
1 3 ) Pe t i ti o n t o A d d Art i c l e 3 1 t o U N H u m a n R i g h ts , http ://artic le31.org/
(s ig ned 11 /2 /200 8)
1 4) U N U n ive r s a l D ec la r a t ion o f H u ma n R i gh ts , h t tp : / /w w w .u n .org / O ver v iew/ r ig h ts . h tm l
( view ed 1 1/2 /200 8)
15. Op. c i t, Fred Pe arce, p.306

3.0 Shelter
1 . V al er ie J . Br own , “ G i ve Me Sh el t er ” , Env i ro nme n tal He alth Pers pec tives , Vo l. 111 , F eb ,
2 003 , h ttp ://www .e hpo nlin e .or g /members /20 03 /1 11- 2 /foc us .h tml ( v iew ed 8 /4 / 200 8)
2 . Me ena Men on , “ Sq ua tte rs are the lar ges t b uild ers o f hous in g in th e wor ld ,” Jun e , 20 03 ,
w w w . in foc ha nge in d ia .o r g ( viewed 8 /4 /2 008)
3 . J agm oha n , “ C iti es a nd C li ma te ” , Th e S t ates ma n, A ug us t 3 , 2 008 ;
h ttp ://www .th es ta tes ma n .ne t/page .arc view .p hp?c lid= 3&id=2 433 84 &usrsess=1 ( viewed
8 /4 /20 08)

32
4.0 Energy
1 . Ene r g y I n f or m a ti on A dm in is tr a t io n – E IA – O f fic ia l E ner g y S t a t is tic s fr om the U . S .
Government, h ttp ://w ww .e ia .doe .g o v/ ( viewe d Ju ly 200 8)
2 . In tern a tio na l Ener gy Ag enc y – En erg y Pub l ica tions ,
h ttp ://www .iea .org /Te xtb ase /p ub lica tio ns /free _new _Desc .as p? PUBS_ ID=1 199 ( vi ewed
Ju ly 2 008 )
3 . R obe r t Zu br in , “ En er g y Vic tor y” , p . 198 , Pr ome theus Bo oks, Amh ers t, N Y, 2 007
4 . I bi d . p . 20 1
5 . An drew Bur r, “ In an A nt ic ip a te d D eb u t , F u tur e o f LE E D A r r i v es o n 20 09 P l a t for m” ,
J u ne 4 , 200 8 , h ttp ://www .us gbc .o rg /News /U SG BC In Th eN ew s D e ta i ls .asp x ? ID = 3 720
( v iew ed 8 /3 1 /20 08)
6 . Tho mas L . Fr ied man , Ta lk ab ou t his la test b ook a t En erg iz ing KY Co nfere nce ,
9 / 18 /2 008 , L ou is vi l le , K Y , “ H o t , Fl a t a nd C r owd ed ,” Far r ar , S t r aus, G ir o u x , N ew Y or k , N Y ,
2 008
7 .h ttp ://www .u nep .org/Doc umen ts .Mu ltilingu al/D e fau lt.Pr in t.as p?Doc umen tID=5 38 &Ar ticle
ID=5 849 &l=e n ( viewed 8 /11 /2008 )
8 . D r . D an ie l Yer gi n , T es ti mo n y b e for e U S S e na te C om m i t tee on E n erg y , 9 /1 2 /20 08 ,
Ca mbr id ge En erg y Rese arch , Bos to n , MA
9 . W ir e d Ed i to r , C hr is A n ders o n i n te r vi ew s S h ai Ag as s i , C E O , Be tter P lac e , D ec 9 , 20 08 ,
h ttp ://www .b e tter place.co m /pr ess-r oo m /videos -de tail/wire d-ed ito r-in-c hie f-chr is-a nde rson -
inte rviews-shai-agassi/
1 0 . P ic k ens Pl an to Sto p A mer ica ’s Ad dic t io n to F or e ig n O il , h ttp://www .p icke nsp lan .co m
( v iew ed 8 /1 2 /20 08)
1 1 . W h y N a t ur a l G as I s T he I mme dia te So lution To G aso line ,
h ttp ://www .ku tvgre ener living .co m/ar tic les /article /ar tic le_ id /41 /Wh y-N a tura l- Gas -Is -Th e-
I m me di a te-S o lu t io n- To - Gas ol in e ( v iew ed 10 / 25 /2 008 )
1 2 . Emer ge nc y Respo nse to N atur a l Gas Ve hic les , 200 2 , { Foo tno te : Na tur al gas is
c o mp osed o f abo u t 90- 95 % m e tha ne a nd is f l a mma bl e o nl y in t he 5 - 15 % c o mp osi t io n
r ang e i n a ir , a nd i ts ig ni t io n te mp era t ure is m uc h h i ghe r t ha n gaso l ine . N a tu r a l gas als o
d isp erses q uick l y fr om a tank leak beca use it is less de nse th an a ir , un lik e g aso line , an d
th ere fore is less lik ely to ig nite a nd ca use a fire than gasoline. CNG is s tor ed in
sp ecially des ig ned , hig h-pr essure c ylind ers, a nd h as th e od ora n t, merca p tan , add ed to
t h e na t ur a l g as for s af e t y . The o dor c an be de tec t ed a t 0 .3 % l e ve l fo r na t ur a l g as i n a ir ,
w h ich is s ix t e en t im es b el ow the low er e xp los io n l i mi t ( L EL) f or n a tur al gas c o mb ust io n .
LN G is s t ore d a t h ig her p r es s u r es t h an C N G , b u t do es no t c on ta in a n od ora n t. }
h ttp ://74 .12 5 .45 .104 /se arch ?q=cac he :iuWS4J 6d2CcJ:www .sce ne o fthe accid en t.o rg /erg /N a t
ural%2520Gas%2520Vehic les.pd f+c n g + f la m ma b i l i t y+e x p l o s i o n + c r a s h &h l= e n &c t= c lnk &c d =
1 0 &g l= us ( v iew ed 1 0/ 2 6 /20 08)
1 3 . Car bon Ca p tur e an d Stora ge,
h ttp ://en .w ik ipe dia .or g/w iki/C arb on _cap ture _a nd_s tora ge ( viewed 9 /28 /2 008 )
1 4 . Fr ed Kru pp a nd Mir ia m H or n , “ Ea r t h : T he S e que l ; Th e R ac e t o R e in v en t E n erg y a nd
Stop Global Warming,” p.101ff, 2008; This book is an exc ellent so urce of information
a bou t the cu rren t are as o f focused de ve lo pmen t o n ren ewab le ene rg y so urces and w hat
ma y b e poss ib le fo r co al emiss ions c on tr ol. T he b ook g i ves goo d ar gu men ts for u tiliz ing
th e cap -and -trad e mech an ism for r educ in g GH Gs b y cr ea ting en tr epre neu r ca pitalis m .
1 5 . Cou ncil o n Co mpetitiveness , “ 100-D a y En erg y Ac tion Pla n for Amer ica ,” 9 /9 /20 08
h ttp ://www .co mp e te .org /news /e n tr y/5 60 /c ounc il-o n-compe titiveness -cha l len ges- ne xt-
p r es ide n t- to - e xec u te-1 00- da y-e ne r g y- ac t io n- pl an- fo r - am er ic a / ( v iew ed 9 / 9 /20 08)

5.0 Climate Change and Pollution

1 . U N I n ter g o ver nme nt a l Pa ne l on C l im a te C h ang e , AR4 , “ S um ma r y f or Po l ic y M ak er s ,”
p .2-3 , N o ve mb er 20 07 , Va lenc ia, Spa i n,
http://www.ipcc .ch/pdf/ass essment- repor t/ar 4/s yr /ar4_s yr _spm.pdf ( viewed 8 /11 /2 008 )
2 . UN In terg o ver nme nta l Pa ne l on C l ima te Ch ang e , AR4 , C hap ter 6 , “Palaeoc lima te” ,
p . 444 , h ttp ://www .ipcc .ch /pd f/assess me n t-r epor t/ar4 /wg 1 /ar 4-wg 1-ch ap ter6 .pd f
( v iew ed 8 /1 1 /20 08)
3 . D r . J ames H anse n , N A SA Godd ard Sp ace I ns t i tu t e , T a lk on c l im a te c h ang e ,
Vide o tap ed b y C- Span o n 6 /1 /2008 , C ar y Ha ll, Le xin g ton , MA, h ttp://www .c-

33
sp ana rch i ves .org /libra r y/inde x.ph p? ma in_ pa ge=p rod uc t_ vid eo_ in fo &pro ducts_ id= 280 97 0-
1 ( viewed 1 0 //24 /2008 )
4 . I b i d . ( vi e w e d 1 0 / 2 4 /2 0 0 8 )
5 . Tho mas L . Fr ied man , Ta lk ab ou t his la test b ook a t En erg iz ing KY Co nfere nce ,
9 / 18 /2 008 , L ou is vi l le , K Y , “ H o t , Fl a t a nd C r owd ed ,” Far r ar , S t r aus, G ir o u x , N ew Y or k , N Y ,
2 008
6 . Les ter R . B r ow n , “ Pl an B 3.0 ,” C h ap te r 3 , p . 66 , W .W . N o r t on & C o , N Y , 2 00 8 ,
h t t p : / /w w w .e ar th- po lic y . or g / Books / P B3 /C o n te n ts .h tm
7 . Pe t er Bar nes , “ C a r bo n C ap pi ng, A C i t iz e n ’s G ui de ,” 20 07 ,
h ttp ://www .ca pan dd ivid end .org /files /Ca rbo nCa pp ing _Citiz ensG uide .pd f
8.Dr. George Lak off, Talk about his book “The Po litical Mind” on C-span, 2008, Austin,
h t t p : / /w w w .c-
sp ana rch i ves .org /libra r y/inde x.ph p? ma in_ pa ge=p rod uc t_ vid eo_ in fo &pro ducts_ id= 280 47 5-
1

6.0 Population
1 . Wor ld Po pu la tion , W ik ipe dia, http://en.wikipedia.o rg /w iki/Wo rld_p opu la tio n ( v iew e d
8 /7 /20 08)
2 . J e f fr e y D . S ac hs , “ C om mon W e al t h ,” Th e D em ogra ph ic C ha ll en ge , p .15 7 f f , Pe nqu in
Press , N Y, 2 008
3 . Mar tha Ca mp be ll e t al., “Re tu rn o f the Po pu la tion G row th Fac tor ,” Sc ie nc e , Vo l . 3 15 .
No . 5 818 , p p . 150 1 – 15 02 (1 6 March 2 007 ); a nd Les ter R . Brown , “ P lan B 3 .0 ,” C ha p ter
7 , p .1 3 6 f f , W .W . N o r to n & C o , N Y , 2 0 0 8 ,
h t t p : / /w w w .e ar th- po lic y . or g / Books / P B3 /C o n te n ts .h tm
4 . U N MDG’ s , http ://www.u ndp.org/mdg/bas ics .shtml ( vi ew e d 8 /7 /2 008 )

7.0 Poverty
1 . W orld Ba nk da ta on po ve r ty, Au gus t 2 6 , 2 008 ,
h ttp ://web .wo rldba nk .o rg /W BSITE/EXT ERNAL /N EW S/0 ,,c on te n tMDK:218 81 954~ pag ePK:6
4 257 043~ piPK:437 376~ the Site PK:4 607 ,00 .h tml ( viewe d 11 /26 /20 08)
2 . J e f fr e y D . Sac hs , “ C o mm on W e al t h ,” T he P o ores t Bil l io n an d the P o ver t y T r ap ,
p .30- 31 , Pe nqu in Pr ess , N Y, 200 8
3. UN MDGs , http://www.u ndp.org /mdg/bas ics .shtml ( vi ew e d 8 /9 /2 008 )

8.0 Health and Longevity

1 . Ro lf Pe nda ll, Kathr yn A. F os ter and Marga ret C owe ll, “R esilienc e a nd Re gio ns :
Bu ild ing Un ders tand in g o f the Me ta pho r,” IURD Wo rking Pa pe r Ser ies (U niversity o f
Ca lifor nia , Berk ele y) ( 2 007 ) Pape r W P- 20 07 -12
2 . Les t er R . Br own , “ P la n B 3 . 0 ,” C h apter 6 , “ E arl y S i gns of D ec l in e ,” p . 1 06 , W .W .
N o r to n & C o , N Y , 2 0 0 8
3. UN MDGs , http://www.u ndp.org /mdg/bas ics .shtml ( v i ew e d 8 /9/2 008 )

9.0 Economy
1 . Tho mas L . Fr ied man , Ta lk ab ou t his la test b ook a t En erg iz ing KY Co nfere nce ,
9 / 18 /2 008 , L ou is vi l le , K Y , “ H o t , Fl a t a nd C r owd ed ,” Far r ar , S t r aus, G ir o u x , N ew Y or k , N Y ,
2 008

10.0 Ecosystems and Sustainable Development

1 . D e finition for Sus taina ble Soc ie ty: h t tp : / /e n .w ik ip ed ia . org /w ik i /Sus t ai nab i li t y
2 . J ames G us ta ve Sp e th , “ The B r idg e a t t h e Edge o f t he W or l d ,” p . 48 , Y a le U ni v ers i t y
P r ess ( 20 08 )
3 . Mi l le nn iu m Ecos yst e m As s es s m en t , 2 005 . “ Ec os ys te ms a nd H u ma n W e ll-b ei ng :
Synthes is Report,” p. 1ff, World Res ourc es Ins titute, Was hington, DC.
h ttp ://www .millen niumass essment.or g /en /ind e x.asp x (O vera ll Syn thes is Rep or t; viewed
8 /19 /2 008
4 . C ar l McD a ni el , “ W is d om fo r a L i va bl e Pl an e t ,” C h ap te r 7 . L i v ing i n a f in i te w o r l d .
He rma n Daly an d Econ omics , Tr in ity Un ive rs i ty Press ( 200 5)
5 . D r . H er m an D al y , “ Ins t i tu t io ns for a S tea d y Sta te E c o nom y , ” S t e ad y S tate Eco no mics ,
Is lan d Press , Was hingto n , DC , 19 91

34
6 . J er e m y Gr an th am , “ Li v in g B e yo nd O ur Me ans : En t er in g the Age o f L im i ta ti ons , ” Le t te r s
to the In ves tment Committee XV, July, 2008, p.8-11,
h t t p : / /w w w .g mo .c om /we bs i t ec on te n t /JGL e t te r _ ALL _2Q0 8 .pd f ( view ed 8 /27 /2 008 )
7 . Gar y G ar dner and T ho mas Pru gh , “ 200 8 Sta te o f the W or ld : Inn o va tions fo r a
Sus tainab le Ec ono my,” p .6 , h ttp ://www .wo rldw a tch .o rg/files /pd f/SOW 08_c hap ter_ 1 .pd f
(viewed 8/11/2008)
8 . I bi d . p . 10 ( v i ew ed 8 / 11 /2 008 )
9 .Ibid . p . 17 ( viewed 8/1 1 /20 08)

11.0 Security
1. Pe tter Stå le nhe im, Ca ta lina Perd omo an d Elis ab e th Sk öns , “Militar y Expen ditur e,”
C h a p t e r 5 , Armaments, Disarmaments and International Security, Information from
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook 2008, June 9,
2008; http://www.s ipri.org/contents/editors/YB08 (viewed 8/8/2008)
2 . L e s ter R . B r o w n , “ Pl a n B 3 . 0 ,” C h a p te r 1 3 , p . 2 8 0 f f , W .W . N o r to n & C o , N Y ( 2 0 0 8 )
3 . Dr . Me da rd Ga be l, Big Pic tureSmallWo rld, 2 007 , http ://www.earth -
in te llige nce .ne t/d ynamas ter /imag e_a rch i ve/or i gina l/6d9 39d 1c f5d f7 659 b ff60 91 999 9 f7b 22 .j
p g ( viewe d 8 /31 /2 008)

12.0 Catastrophic Failure

1 . N uclear No n-pr olifer ation Tr eaty, h t t p ://w w w .u n .or g /D e p ts /dd a /W MD / t r ea ty/
( v iew ed 9 /4 / 200 8)

B. HUMAN CONTENTMENT

1.0 Spirituality and Moral Compass

1 . Enc yc l op ed ia Br itan nic a an d Wor l d Chr is tian Enc yc lop ed ia , 20 01
2 . “ Ma jo r R e l ig ions o f t h e W or ld ,” http://www.adherents .com/Re ligions_By_Adherents .html
( v iew ed 8 /2 7 /20 08)
3 . “ S pir i t ual i t y,” W ike pe di a , h t tp : // e n .w ik ip edi a .o r g /w ik i /Sp ir i tua l i t y ( v iew ed 8 /2 7 /20 08)
4. J ames Gus tave Sp eth, “The Bridge at th e Edg e o f the W o r l d ,” C h a p te r 1 0 , p . 1 9 9 f f , Ya l e
U n i ve r s i t y P r ess ( 20 08 )

2.0 Social Connectedness

1 . Ed D iene r and Mar tin E.P. Se lig man , “Be yond Mo ne y, T owa rd an Eco no m y o f We ll-
B e in g ,” http ://www .psych.uiuc .edu/~ediener /hottopic /1-31.pdf ( vi ew e d 8 /2 8/ 2 008 )
2 . J a m e s G u s ta ve Sp e th , “ T h e B r i d g e a t t h e Ed g e o f t h e W o r l d ,” C h a p t e r 6 , p .1 2 6 f f , Y a l e
U n i ve r s i t y P r ess ( 20 08 )
3 . Pa u l R as k in , h t t p : / /e n .w ik ip ed ia . org /w ik i /Pa ul _R as k in ( v i ew ed 9 / 5 /20 08)
4 . Pa u l R as k in e t al . , “ G r ea t Trans i t ion : The Pr om ise a nd L ur e of t h e T im es A h ead ,”
T e llus Ins titu te , 20 02 , http://www.gtinitiati ve.or g /documents /Gr eat_Transitions .pdf
( v iew ed 9 /5 / 200 8)
5 . Dr . R obe rt Ka tes et a l , “G rea t T rans ition Va lu es : Pres en t Attitu des , F u tur e Cha nges ,”
2 006 , h t tp :/ / w w w .g t in it i a t i ve .o r g /d oc u men ts / P D F F IN ALS/ 9 Va lu es .p d f ( viewed 11 /4 /2008 )

C. HUMAN FREEDOM

1.0 Education
1 . Po l l y C ur t is , Gu ard ia n , Oc to ber 2 8 , 20 03 ,
h ttp ://www .g uar dian .co .uk /ed ucation /200 3 /oc t/2 8 /schoo ls .uk 3 ( view ed 8 /11 /2 008 )
2 . J e f fr e y D . Sac hs , “ C o mm on W e al t h ,” p . 18 7 , P en qu in Pr ess , N Y , 20 08

2.0 Freedom
1 . R obe r t K a t es , A n th on y L eis er owi tz , a nd T ho mas Pa r r is , “ Gr ea t Tra ns i t io n Va lues ,” p . 9 ,
T e llus Ins titu te , Bos ton , MA, 20 06 , h t tp : / /w w w .g t in i t ia ti v e .o r g ( v iew ed 1 1 /2 /2 008 )

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IV. SYSTEM ASSESSMENT & INTERVENTION FOR SUSTAINED, HUMAN
WELL-BEING
1 . J a y W . F orr est er , http://en.w ik ipedia.org/wiki/J a y_W._Forres ter
2 . Don e lla Me adows , J org en Ra nde rs a nd Den n is Mea dows , “ Limits to Gr ow th , The 30 -
Y e ar U pd a te ,” C he ls ea Gree n Pub l ish ing C o. , W h i te R iv e r J unc t ion , V T ( 20 04 )
3 . I b i d . p .1 .
4 . I bi d . p .24 4
5 .N assim N icho las Ta le b , “ The Black Swa n : T he Impac t o f th e H igh ly Impr oba ble ,”
Ra ndo m Ho use , New York , 200 7

1.0 System Assessment

1 . N assim N icho las Ta le b , “T he Black Swan ,” R an dom H ous e , New York , 2 007
2 . C hr is C. Park , “ Th e En viro nmen t: Pr inc ip les and Applic a tions ,” p . 82 , Ro u tled ge , 2 001
3 . Mi l le nn iu m Ecos yst e m As s es s m en t , 2 005 . “ Ec os ys te ms a nd H u ma n W e ll-b ei ng :
Syn thes is Re por t,” Wo rld Reso urc es Ins titute , W ash ing ton , DC .
h ttp ://www .millen niumass essment.or g /en /ind e x.asp x (O vera ll Syn thes is Rep or t; viewed
8 /18 /2 008 )
4 . Op . c i t, Mea dows (2 004 )
5 . Op . c i t, Stu tz ( 2006 )

2.0 System Intervention

1 . D one l la M ea dows , “ Tw e l ve L ev e r ag e P oin ts in S ys te ms ,”
h ttp ://en .w ik ipe dia .or g/w iki/Twe l ve _le ver age_ po in ts , ( view ed 8 /14 /2 008 )
2 . D one l la M ea dows , “ P lac es t o I n t er ve ne in a S ys t em, ” W h ol e Ea r t h , W i n ter 1 99 7 ,
http://www.sus tainalaska.org- pd f-Wh ole Ear thR e v.pd f (viewed 8/14/2008)
3 . Ash ok a , h ttp ://www .as hoka .org/ ( view ed 8/8 /200 8)
4 . B il l D r ayt o n , “ E ver y o ne a C ha nge mak er , ” In no va t io ns , W i n ter 2 006 , pub l is he d b y M IT
Press , h ttp://www .as hok a .or g /files /In no va tions Book le tSma ll.pd f ( v iew ed 8 / 8 /20 08)
5 . “L ea ding Soc ia l En tr epr eneu rs, Elec tio ns , 200 6-2 007 ” , Ash oka , Inn ova tors for the
Pu blic , 2 008 , ISBN-1 3: 9 78- 0-966 675 9-9- 3
6 . Sko ll F ou nda tio n Pr ogra m for Soc ia l En tre pre neurs , http://www.skollfoundation.or g/
7 . Schw ab F ou nda tio n for Social En tr epr eneu rsh ip ,
h t t p : / /w w w .s c hw ab fo un d .or g /s f / in de x .h t m (viewe d 10 /3 1 /20 08)
8 . Muh amm ad Yu nus, “ C r ea t ing a W o r l d W i t ho u t P o ve r t y : S oc i al B us i ness a nd th e Fut ur e
o f C ap i ta lism , ” P ub l ic A f f a irs , 2 00 8
9 . Allen Wh ite , “C orpo ra tion 2020 , D esign ing for Soc ial Purp ose”
h ttp ://www .co rpor a tion2 020 .org / (viewe d 8 /30 /200 8)
1 0 . D a v id K or t en , “ On l y O ne R eas on to Gra n t a C o r po r a te C har te r , ” E x pa nd ed ve r s i on o f
p r ese n ta t ion t o the Sum m i t on t he Fu tu r e o f t h e C or pora t io n , Fa neu i l H a ll , B os to n , M A ,
1 1 /13 /200 7, h ttp ://www .yes ma gaz ine .org /article .asp ? ID=2 171 ( view ed 9 / 6 /08 )
1 1 . In ter f ait h C en te r on C or p ora te R es po ns ib i li t y , h ttp ://www .iccr .o rg / ( viewed 9 /7 /2 008)
12. Donella Meadows et al, “ Limits to Gr owth, A 30- year update” p.271ff, 2004

3.0 Sojourners Are We

1 . Life on Ear th , h t tp :/ / w w w .so ls t a t io n .c o m/l i f e /ea r - l i fe.h t m, ( viewe d 8 /6 /2008 )
2 . Ear th In tellige nce Ne tw ork, 50 1c3 o rga niz a tion , h ttp ://www .e ar th- in tellige nce.n et
( view ed 1 1/4 /200 8)

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