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0 INTRODUCTION

Research Topic: CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTAINABLE IMPACTS OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY IN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES After reviewing the literature based on the research topic, the following research questions were formed: Research Questions: What are the climate parameters that have significant change that were brought about in the increase of greenhouse gases? What are the climate variables that resulted in the change of climate in the Philippines? What is the relationship in rising temperature and precipitation change due the climate change in the Philippines with Hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines? What is the effect of El Nino phenomenon with Hydroelectric Power generation in Mindanao, Philippines? What other factors aside from climate change and El Nino that can be considered as involved in the Power shortage supply in Mindanao, Philippines? Hypothesis: Climate Change in the Philippines affects the hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines. This type of hypothesis is a relational hypothesis since it will state the relationships between variables. The variables involved in climate change are the temperature and precipitation. Other variables are the temperature and precipitation change brought about by the El Nino phenomenon. An increase in temperature will increase evaporation; this will affect the water resources required in hydroelectric generation. Decrease in precipitation will also affect water slow therefore will affect also power supply in hydroelectric facilities. Hypothesis can be tested qualitatively because variables such as temperature and precipitation can be measured. Hydroelectric power output can also be quantified.

After a second review of literatures a revised hypothesis was drawn: Increase in temperature, decrease in precipitation and decrease river runoff due to climate change in the Philippines has a negative impact of the hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines. The potential impact of climate change on water resources can be shown in terms of variations in temperature and precipitation. There is a relationship between increased temperatures with variations in river runoff due to changes in precipitation. Studies show not only the effect on the river flows but also the impact on generation from hydroelectric stations. After selecting an appropriate research methods and selecting relevant data collection methods two hypotheses were made: Hypothesis 1: Increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation due to climate change in the Philippines will decrease river runoff. Hypothesis 2: Decrease in river runoff has a negative impact of the hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines. In this research the procedure that will be used in describing or explaining climate change in the Philippines is by using change of temperature and precipitation. The capacity of the natural water resources used in Mindanao, Philippines in hydroelectric power generation can be assessed against projected climate change and variability. Quantitative research method will be applied that will primarily base on the measurement of change of temperature and precipitation consequently the estimates of river flow or river runoff. This research method will be based on simulation case studies; therefore, it will generally classify as quantitative research. Secondary historical climate data of change in temperature and precipitation from the Philippines government statistics website can be investigated to convert into primary date using regression analysis. To assess the effect of climate change, a model can be develop using this method to provide estimates of potential and actual evapotranspiration in terms of river runoff based on temperature and precipitation change. The effect of climate change on hydrogenation can then be determined by using the expected values for river runoff using the model taken from a case study.

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The actual value of the hydropower generation output in Mindanao, Philippines will be taken from the government website. The selected data that will be used will be analysed using the model from a case study and the SPSS software to get the inter relationship of all the variables.

The verication of hypotheses is based on the available evidence and scientic reasoning. In the quantitative research we usually provide hypotheses for describing, predicting or explaining the phenomena in this case temperature and precipitation. Once variables are identified, the next process will be numerically validating those hypotheses using regression analysis. Start with a large set of variables in Table 1 and 2 and run a multivariate regression against those variables with dependent variable. The result of the regressions will allow you to identify variables that are insignificant variables, as well as variables that might be too closely correlated to each other to both be included in the analysis. Eliminate those variables and rerun the analysis until you have reached a set of variables that are all significant, and yet substantially independent of each other. It may also be advantageous to run separate

regressions for different segments that you identified in the previous data (Niskanen 2010). Regression analysis is among the most commonly used methods of statistical analysis in research. One of its objectives is to describe the relationship of a response with explanatory variables. Regression includes the linear models for measures responses, logistics models for binary responses and survival analyses for times to events. In this case all relationships are assumed to be linear to make analysis simple. Another basic assumption of regression analysis is that all observations are statistically independent or at least uncorrelated with each other. The purpose of regression analysis in hypothesis verification in this case is to answer the same three questions that have been identified as requirements for understanding the relationships between variables (Liang & Zeger 1993) In hypotheses 1, the functional relationship between all the variables can be verified using SPSS regression analysis, since in the case study it is very clear in the graph from Figure 1 that an increase of 1degree centigrade of the temperature will not give a linear relationship between change in precipitation and change in river runoff. For this reason, there will be clear and concrete description of relationships on these variables if it is not assumed that everything is linear. In hypotheses 2, although regression analysis will show a relationship

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between the two dependent variables river runoff and hydropower generation, it also did not give a strong relationship. For this matter, the theory that was used in generating the data, the true value model, will not give accurate figures with real life. It is very clear since the two figures 2009 and 2010 are very far from the average.

In this research, validation was done using SPSS data validation. A rule is used to determine whether a case is valid. The procedure produces lists of variables, cases, and data values that fail various checks, counts of violations of single-variable and cross-variable rules, and simple descriptive summaries of analysis variables. The validation of these research data also depends on the assumption that the relationship between the variables change of rainfall and change of runoff is linear. This assumption will definitely affect the validation of research data (SPSS Data Validation, n.d.). Reliability refers to consistency of the research data. One way to determine consistency reliability is to construct an inter-item correlation matrix which in this research is using for the fact that the data is quantitative and the underlying relationship between items are assumed to be linear. This matrix gives the correlation between each pair of items. If both of the items in the matrix measure the same construct this will show a strong correlation as shown on this research. Low correlations, on the other hand, could indicate that an item is unreliable. The inter-item correlation matrix was constructed using SPSS. Correlations were also shown in this research. Inter-item correlation is not the only measure of consistency reliability. Other measures include Cronbachs alpha, Spearmans rho and Kendalls tau. Another method to know Research Data Reliability is by using SPSS frequency analysis. In this research, the frequency histogram was taken using SPSS (Miller n.d.).

Data are facts, figures and other relevant materials, past and present, serving as basis for study and analysis. The data serve as the bases or raw materials for analysis. Without an analysis of factual data, no specific inferences can be drawn on the questions under study. Data form the basis for testing the hypotheses formulated in this research. Data also provide the facts and figures required for constructing measurement and tables, which are analysed

with statistical techniques. Inferences on the results of statistical, analysis and tests of significance provide the answers to research questions.

For some research questions such as in this case, it is practical to use data collected earlier by other credible researchers or for other purposes than research which is an official statistics records kept routinely by a government organisation. By principle of being archived and made available, this type of primary data will serve as secondary data. In this research, the main sources of information are the official data archive which is the Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB). This is the gateway to official Philippine social and economic statistics. Although the actual measurement of the temperature, precipitation and other climate variables are done by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) (Melville & Goddard 1996). In this research the primary data is generated using regression analysis of secondary data taken from the Philippine government statistic website. Base of the research hypotheses the variables involve are temperature and precipitation. The following are historical climate data from previous statistical research. Table 1 Historical Climate Data 1966-1982 (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d).

Table 2. Historical Climate Data 1983-1996 (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d).

With the increasing emission of greenhouse gases, their concentrations in the atmosphere also go up which, in turn, cause the temperature of the earth to rise. The rise in earths temperature, meanwhile, leads to changes in the patterns of precipitation and the sea level to rise. The changes in climate have adverse effects not only on our ecological and socioeconomic systems but on human health as well. Thus, there is a growing concern over various manifestations of climate changes like the pollution-induced global warming and the El Nio phenomenon (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d.). A study made by the NSCB in 1998 on the various climate data generated by PAGASA from 1966 to 1996 indicated a shift to a warmer climate. A close examination of the temperature in the Philippines from the period 1966 to 1996 revealed that from 1987 onwards, the average minimum temperatures recorded were higher than the normal minimum temperature of 22.95 degrees C, suggesting that the climate in the country is getting warmer. Similarly, the average mean temperature

observed in the same period has not fallen below the normal mean temperature of 27.03 degrees C (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d). Other climate variables were tested in terms of the effect of El Nino covering the same period (1966-1996). Data on the various climate variables for the past three decades are given in Table 1 and Table 2. Annual data presented were obtained by averaging the data recorded by the different PAGASA stations located nationwide (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d.). The potential impact of climate change on water resources has been suggested since the 1980s, as work progressed on predicting climate change. Although Global Circulation Model (GCM) can be used to predict runoff directly, the coarse scale used means that this information is only useful for the most general studies. As a result, many studies have been carried out on individual basins, showing that river basins display a range of sensitivities to climate change. Figure 1 shows the response of a typical river basin to variations in precipitation and temperature. It can be seen that increased temperature results in non-linear variations in runoff due to changes in precipitation. Base on this model, primary data which is the river runoff from change of temperature and change of precipitation from Table 1 and 2 can be derived (Harisson, Whittington & Gundry n.d.) .

Figure 1

River Basin Response to Climate Change (Harisson, Whittington & Gundry n.d.)

In order to verify the hypotheses, a value of the hydropower generation output in Mindanao, Philippines should be used. This value will be taken from the government website. The Philippines has power electricity generating capacity of 15.1 gigawatts (GW). The country generated 53.1 billion kilowatt-hours (Bkwh) of electricity in 2004, while consuming 49.4 Bkwh. The Philippine electric power industry is

composed into three main divisions which are generation, transmission and distribution. In spite of the natural disasters and the adverse impact of climate change, the performance of the power sector had developed. Mindanao hugely underwent the worst of the power shortage brought by El Nio Phenomenon as 50 percent of its electricity requirement mostly sourced from hydroelectric power facilities. Electric supply in this area was inadequate as water level in lakes and rivers all over the grid constantly below critical level (Department of Energy 2010).

Table 3 2010 and 2009 Comparative Power Generation in the Philippines (2010 Philippine Power Sector Situtationer, 2010)

Primary sources are original sources from which the researcher directly collects data that have not been previously collected. Primary data are first-hand information collected through various methods such as observation, interviewing, mailing etc. In this research the primary data is generated using regression analysis of secondary data taken from the Philippine government statistic website. Base on the research

hypotheses the variables involved are temperature and precipitation. Therefore, from these independent variables, change of river runoff can be derived using the model which is shown on table 4 (Graciano & Raulin 2004). Table 4 Change of Temperature, Change of Rainfall and Run Off

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When data appear to do poorly in a complex probability estimation task, it may be making careful estimates based on a different data generating model which in this case the model from the case study to generate river run off estimates. Correlations between estimates and probabilities generated by the correct accuracy.

Researcher which study how accurately estimate probabilities typically compare data responses with so called true probabilities in which these true values are derived by the researcher from a specific data model. It is possible, however, that the data use some other data generating model like in this case. Thus the successful performance is a function of both the fir of the datas data model and the accuracy with which the data responses reflect model (Lichtenstein 1968) In order to get primary data for the hydropower generation output as the dependent variables true score model will be used. To measure a dependent variable

(hydropower generation) defined from the functional relationship between the dependent variable (river runoff) and its related independent variables (temperature and rainfall), a single real value was used to represents that measure which in this case the average hydropower output from 2009 2010. The objective is to create

hypothetical test scores that typically look like the values obtained by actually measuring the dependent variable in field test. This simple measurement model is the true score model (Stapelberg 2012) True Score Model is a theory about measurement. Like all theories, there is need to recognise that it is not proven it is postulated as a model of how the world operates. Like many very powerful model, the true score theory is a very simple one. Essentially, true score theory maintains that every measurement is an additive composite of two components: true ability (or the true level) of the respondent on that measure; and random error (Saris & Putte 1988). The simple equation of X = T + eX has a parallel equation at the level of the variance or variability of a measure. That is, across a set of scores, we assume that:

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var(X) = var(T) + var(eX) In more human terms this means that the variability of your measure is the sum of the variability due to true score and the variability due to random error. This will have important implications when consider some of the more advanced models for adjusting for errors in measurement (Saris & Putte 1988). For this research this was used, for one thing, it is a simple yet powerful model for measurement. It reminds us that most measurement has an error component. Second, true score theory is the foundation of reliability theory. A measure that has no random error (i.e., is all true score) is perfectly reliable; a measure that has no true score (i.e., is all random error) has zero reliability. Third, true score theory can be used in computer simulations as the basis for generating "observed" scores with certain known properties. You should know that the true score model is not the only measurement model available. Measurement theorists continue to come up with more and more complex models that they think represent reality even better. But these models are complicated enough that lie outside the boundaries of this research. In any event, true score theory should give you an idea of why measurement models are important at all and how they can be used as the basis for defining key research ideas. The true score model is a good simple model for measurement, but it may not always be an accurate reflection of reality. In particular, it assumes that any observation is composed of the true value plus some random error value (Saris & Putte 1988). Using the true score model theory in Table 3 the average of the hydropower generation in Mindanao Philippines output was taken in order to get the value corresponding with the change of temperature, change of precipitation and change of runoff. Pre-test post-test analyses are widely used in research, primarily for the purpose of comparing groups and/or measuring change. The focus of this is on comparing value with pre-test and post-test data and related reliability issues (Borsboom & Mellenbergh 2002).

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The data obtained from this study are numerical or quantitative form, that is, in the form of numbers. If they are not in numerical form, then we can still carry out qualitative analyses based on the experiences of the individual participants. If they are in numerical form, then we typically start by working out some descriptive statistics to summarise the pattern of findings. These descriptive statistics include measures of mean which in this case is the temperature and precipitation variables and measures of the spread of scores. Another useful way of

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summarising the findings is by means of graphs and figures. In any study, two things might be true: There is a difference (the experimental hypothesis) There is no difference (the null hypothesis) (Eysenck 2004)

Various statistical tests have been devised to permit a decision between the experimental and null hypotheses on the basis of the data. Decision making based on a statistical test is open to error, in that we can never be sure whether we have made the correct decision. However, certain standard procedures are generally followed. Finally, there are important issues

relating to the validity of the findings obtained from a study. One reason why the validity of the findings may be limited is that the study itself was not carried out in a properly controlled and scientific fashion (Eysenck 2004).

SPSS for Windows is the Windows version of the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. It is one of the most useful, popular, and easy-to-use software packages for performing statistical analyses. SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) is a versatile software package which primarily assists users in performing complex statistical analyses of quantitative data sets. The software allows users to create, modify, and analyse data, as well as to produce graphics to display findings in reports or presentations. SPSS is comparable to other general statistical analysis software such as SAS, Stata, or S-Plus. Relative to these other software packages, SPSS is easier to learn and more simple to use. However, it is more restrictive than the other statistics packages; advanced users have a tougher time tailoring SPSS to meet their specialized analytical needs (Morrison 1999). Correlation coefficient provides a measure of the degree of linear relationship between two variables. Generally, correlations are computed between two different variables that have each been measured in this case the model rainfall variable and the model runoff. Base on the case study and using SPSS, relationship was derived between model run off and model rainfall. Assuming that the relationship is linear from the Table 6 below, an equation can be formed.

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Model

Sig.

.771 .004

MODRAI NF

3.700

Modrunoff = 3.7(Modrainfall+ 2

Using this equation Secondary data can be analysed to get the values of Runoff which will be the new Primary Data.

By using the equation:

Modrunoff = 3.7(Modrainfall) + 2

And using the rainfall change from the secondary source at 1 degrees C rise of temperature the corresponding values of run-off can be derived. These values the change of run-off can be seen in Table 7.

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Table 7

Hypotheses are essential in the conduct of inquiry and its aim is to establish and verify them. In practice hypotheses are assumptions or assertions on the phenomena under consideration and this task is to assign truth values to these statements according to such evidence as facts, experiments, observations and scientic reasoning. At the outset this will establish the appropriate research strategy according to the working hypotheses which concern data collection, research methods, theories and models. Then, establish the proper research

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hypotheses. The verication of hypotheses, in turn, is based on the available evidence and scientic reasoning. In the quantitative research we usually provide hypotheses for describing, predicting or explaining the phenomena in this case temperature and precipitation (Niskanen 2010). Once variables are identified, the next process will be numerically validating those hypotheses using regression analysis. Start with a large set of variables in Table 1 and 2 and run a multivariate regression against those variables with dependent variable. The result of the regressions will allow you to identify variables that are insignificant variables, as well as variables that might be too closely correlated to each other to both be included in the analysis. Eliminate those variables and rerun the analysis until you have reached a set of variables that are all significant, and yet substantially independent of each other. It may also be advantageous to run separate regressions for different segments that you identified in the previous data (Niskanen 2010).

Regression analysis is among the most commonly used methods of statistical analysis in research. One of its objectives is to describe the relationship of a response with explanatory variables. Regression includes the linear models for measures responses, logistics models for binary responses and survival analyses for times to events. In this case all relationships are assumed to be linear to make analysis simple. Another basic assumption of regression analysis is that all observations are statistically independent or at least uncorrelated with each other (Liang & Zeger 1993) The purpose of regression analysis in hypothesis verification in this case is to answer the same three questions that have been identified as requirements for understanding the relationships between variables: Is there a relationship between the two variables? How strong is the relationship? What is the direction of the relationship? (Liang & Zeger 1993)

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Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B TEMP RAINF -1182.663 -3.311 Std. Error 800.790 .711 Beta -.228 -.717 -1.477 -4.655 .151 .000 t Sig.

Table 8 shows the relationship between the independent variable temperature and the other independent variable rainfall. Both the coefficients are negative which tells the slope of the linear graph. Table 8 shows that of both variables

temperature has the higher percentage contribution. Table 9 Coefficients Table for Temperature Change and Rainfall Change

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B TEMPch 1 RAINFch .001 .001 .173 .825 .416 1.525 Std. Error .896 Beta .357 1.702 .100 t Sig.

In the case of the change of temperature and change of rainfall, its functional relationship can also be illustrated with Table 9. Both numbers in the table are positive, therefore these figures illustrates the slope of the linear function of the two variables. This also illustrates that temperature change has higher percentage contribution of the two variables.

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HPEGEN Pearson Correlation HPEGEN N Pearson Correlation RUNOFF N 30 30 30 .992 30 1 1 RUNOFF .992

The correlations between all variables can be shown in Table 10 and Table 11.

After analysing the results taken from SPSS using regression analysis; Hypothesis 1: Increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation due to climate change in the Philippines will decrease river runoff. In hypotheses 1, the functional relationship between all the variables can be verified using SPSS regression analysis. But since in the case study, it is very clear in the graph from Figure 1, that an increase of 1degree centigrade of the temperature will not give a linear relationship between change in precipitation and change in river runoff. For this reason, it will be clearer and more concrete description of

relationships on these variables if the analysis was not assumed as linear. Hypothesis 2: Decrease in river runoff has a negative impact of the hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines.

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In hypotheses 2, although regression analysis will show a relationship between the two dependent variables river runoff and hydropower generation, it also did not give a strong relationship. For this matter, the theory that was used in generating the data, the true value model, will not give accurate figures with real life. It is very clear since the two figures 2009 and 2010 are very far from the average. It is safe to say that hydropower generation in the Philippines is very fluctuating and cannot be represented by true value model for the span of 30 years that will correspond with Table1 and Table 2. Bearing in mind, that the figures from the tables 1 and 2 of which are the Average Temperature and Average Rainfall are real life measurement from the Philippines. Therefore, it is safe to say that actual measurement of

hydroelectric power generation output should be used for the analysis in order to verify this hypothesis.

Research Data Validation refers to the quality of the data or the measure. This will show if the measure is what it is intended to measure. Validation will also show to what extent to which the research measures what it is supposed to measure. In this case, to validate the data in the research, the relationship of scores on all the variables should be assessed to a specific criterion (Miller n.d.).

In this research, validation was done using SPSS data validation. A rule is used to determine whether a case is valid. There are two types of validation rules: Single-variable rules. Single-variable rules consist of a fixed set of checks that apply to a single variable, such as checks for out-of-range values. For singlevariable rules, valid values can be expressed as a range of values or a list of acceptable values. Cross-variable rules. Cross-variable rules are user-defined rules that can be applied to a single variable or a combination of variables. Cross-variable rules are defined by a logical expression that flags invalid values. The Validate Data dialog box allows you to identify suspicious and invalid cases, variables, and data values in the active dataset. The procedure produces lists of

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variables, cases, and data values that fail various checks, counts of violations of single-variable and cross-variable rules, and simple descriptive summaries of analysis variables (SPSS Data Validation, n.d.). By using SPSS, Research Data of Temperature, Rainfall and River Runoff was taken into for its validity which can be shown in Table 12. Table 12 Component Matrix

Component 1 TEMP RAINF RUNOFF .494 -.925 .806

The validation of these research data also depends on the assumption that the relationship between the variables change of rainfall and change of runoff is linear. This assumption will definitely affect the validation of research data.

Reliability is defined as the extent to which a questionnaire, test, observation or any measurement procedure produces the same results on repeated trials. In short, it is the stability or consistency of scores over time. Keeping in mind that reliability pertains to scores. An important point to understand is that a measure can be perfectly reliable and yet not be valid (Miller n.d.). Reliability refers to consistency of the research data. One way to determine

consistency reliability is to construct an inter-item correlation matrix which in this research is using for the fact that the data is quantitative and the underlying relationship between items are assumed to be linear. This matrix gives the correlation between each pair of items. If both of the items in the matrix measure the same construct this will show a strong correlation as shown on the Table 10 above. Low correlations, on the other hand, could indicate that an item is unreliable. The inter21

item correlation matrix was constructed using SPSS. Correlations were also shown in Table 10 and Table 11. Inter-item correlation is not the only measure of consistency reliability. Other measures include Cronbachs alpha, Spearmans rho and Kendalls tau (Miller n.d.). Another method to know Research Data Reliability is by using SPSS frequency analysis. In this research, the frequency histogram was taken using SPSS as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2

The histogram above in Figure 2 is a plot that shows the underlying frequency distribution or shape of the set of continuous data in which in this case is the temperature. This allows the inspection of the data for its underlying distribution, outlier and skewness. This figure also shows the temperature data reliability.

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The functional relationship between all the variables which are temperature, rainfall and river runoff can be verified using SPSS regression analysis. But since in the case study, it is very clear in the graph that an increase of 1degree centigrade of the temperature will not give a linear relationship between change in precipitation and change in river runoff. For this reason, it will be clearer and more concrete

description of relationships on these variables if the analysis was not assumed as linear. Although regression analysis will show a relationship between the two

dependent variables river runoff and hydropower generation, it also did not give a strong relationship. For this matter, the theory that was used in generating the data, the true value model, will not give accurate figures with real life. It is very clear since the two figures 2009 and 2010 are very far from the average. It is safe to say that hydropower generation in the Philippines is very fluctuating and cannot be represented by true value model for the span of 30 years. Bearing in mind that the Average Temperature and Average Rainfall are real life measurement from the Philippine and the Hydropower generation data used is just generated and assumed to be a good representation of the actual data. Therefore, it is safe to say that actual measurement of hydroelectric power generation output should be used for the analysis in order to validate clearly this research. For future study, it is recommended to consider a non-linear functional relationship to all variables. Although this will create a more complex data analysis but it will definitely and clearly verify and validate the research. It is also recommended to use actual value of the hydropower generation output that will correspond to the temperature and rainfall data. These are in consideration that hydropower generation output in the Philippines is and were unstable for the past 30 years. For this matter, it is logical to say that true score value is not applicable to be used in this research.

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