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November 14, 2012

Europe

Strategy in Style
Implementing styles, themes and industry views with baskets

Portfolio Strategy Research

We refresh our basket constituents and highlight recent basket performance. Since our last Strategy in Style, our UK domestic exposure basket (GSSTUKDE) has been the best relative performer. Periphery stocks also outperformed as sovereign spreads tightened with both our periphery exposure (GSSTPEXP) and our periphery exporters (GSSTPEMU) baskets being in the top 5 relative performers. On the other hand, our stable growers (GSSTGRTH) and core Euro area exposure (GSSTCEMU) underperformed as the risk premium contracted.
UK domestic outperformed while core Euro area exposure underperformed
Top/bottom 5 baskets
Performance since our last Strategy in Style, relative to SXXP
-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
6.7 4.3

Combining thematic trade ideas in a report


Strategy in Style is a quarterly publication that combines all the baskets from European Economic, Commodities and Strategy (ECS) Research. It includes thematic, regional exposure, sub-sector and Wavefront baskets. Basket constituents are all screened for liquidity, shorting constraints and borrowing costs. The homepage for our baskets can be accessed by typing GSPM <GO> on Bloomberg. Our European Strategy baskets allow investors to monitor or implement various styles and macro, thematic and regional exposures across the market. Our sub-sector baskets offer a more targeted vehicle to access or hedge exposure to specific industry groups. Long/short combinations can also help capture alpha opportunities
Matthieu Walterspiler
+44(20)7552-3403 matthieu.walterspiler@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

Gerald Moser
+44(20)7774-5725 gerald.moser@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

8.0

UK Domestic Periphery Pension Risk Periphery Exporters BRIC Exposure Defensive Yield Operating Leverage Financial Leverage Core

Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA


+44(20)7774-1714 christian.muellerglissmann@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

4.1

3.3

2.5

Peter Oppenheimer
+44(20)7552-5782 peter.oppenheimer@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

-0.8

-1.0

-1.6

Sharon Bell, CFA


+44(20)7552-1341 sharon.bell@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

-3.3

Stable Growers
-3.5

* Except UK baskets which are relative to FTSE All-Share. Last Strategy in Style was published on June 21, 2012 Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

November 14, 2012

Europe

Strategy in Style: Our publication for thematic and customised trade ideas
Where to find all baskets from European Economics, Commodities and Strategy (ECS) Research
Our baskets of European stocks allow investors to trade investment themes, regional exposure and sectors in the equity market more efficiently. All stocks included in our thematic, regional and sub-sector baskets are screened for liquidity, shorting constraints and borrowing costs. All our baskets are equally weighted at initiation rather than market cap-weighted. The homepage for our baskets can be accessed by typing GSPM <GO> on Bloomberg. Shortcuts can be used to skip to one type of thematic basket. For example, to go directly to the Portfolio Strategy thematic baskets, type GSPM1<GO>; for the basket components, type GSPM2<GO>. See Exhibit 1 for the complete list. If you need access to the GSPM page or for any other questions regarding trading our baskets, please contact your Goldman Sachs sales representative. The next few pages show you how to navigate our GSPM Bloomberg page. Exhibit 1: Our GSPM page
Main page on Bloomberg:

GSPM
Fundamental theme baskets Wavefront Europe baskets European sub sector baskets Regional exposure baskets

Overall Baskets Menu Option: 1 Ticker prefix: GSST

Overall Baskets Menu Option: 3 Ticker prefix: GSTW Overall Baskets Menu Option: 5 Overall Baskets Menu Option: 6 Ticker prefix: GSST

For component long/short legs Menu Option: 2 Ticker prefix: GSBB

For component long/short legs Menu Option: 4 Ticker prefix: GSTC

Ticker prefix: GSSB

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Note: The ability to trade these baskets will depend upon market conditions, including liquidity and borrow constraints at the time of trade.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

November 14, 2012

Europe

Exhibit 2: Navigating our baskets

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

November 14, 2012

Europe

It is possible to view the constituents of our baskets on Bloomberg. For example, for the Portfolio Strategy high dividend yield basket, first select option 1 (Portfolio Strategy baskets) from the GSPM page. Select the basket and then type MEMB<GO> to see the index composition page as shown below. Please note that for long/short baskets you will need to access the specific component before you can view the members. Exhibit 3: Viewing constituents
Sample page

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

November 14, 2012

Europe

Our trade ideas Portfolio Strategy baskets


Exhibit 4: Europe Portfolio Strategy thematic trade recommendations

Prices as of November 13, 2012

Exhibit 5: Strategy basket performance and average valuation data Prices as of November 13, 2012
Bloomberg Ticker Fundamental theme baskets -1 Wk Relative Performance -1 mth YTD P/E NTM P/B LTM Div yld (%)

Top thematic ideas


Long GSSTBRIC vs. Short GSSTDOME: We recommend a long position in our GSSTBRIC basket of European companies with high BRIC sales exposure vs. a short in our GSSTDOME basket of European companies with high Euro area sales exposure. We believe GSSTBRIC is better positioned long-term due to higher economic growth in the BRICs and our anticipation of turning growth momentum in China. Long GSSTHIDY: We recommend a long position in our GSSTHIDY basket of European companies with high dividend yields and the potential for future growth vs. the STOXX Europe 600 index. We see this as a long-term strategy that is particularly interesting in the current low yield environment. Long GSSTPEXP vs. SXXP: We recommend a long position in our GSSTPEXP basket of companies from Euro area periphery with high sales exposure outside Europe ex-UK vs. the STOXX Europe 600 index. We do not expect these markets to outperform sustainably until their economies turn, and therefore prefer to gain exposure to the potential for a modest improvement in global activity via external facing stocks domiciled in the periphery. Long GSSTGRTH vs. SXXP: We recommend a long position in our GSSTGRTH basket of European companies with high and stable growth. We expect the European market to post positive but moderating returns, which is a supportive for our basket. The current relative valuation is in line with long run average and below the more recent history.
Thematic Trade Recommendations
Initiation GSSTBRIC vs. GSSTDOME GSSTHIDY vs. SXXP GSSTPEXP vs. SXXP GSSTGRTH vs. SXXP Date 29-Jul-11 09-Jan-12 14-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 Perf. 15.0% 1.8% -0.4% -3.1% Weekly Perf. 0.4% -0.2% -1.1% -0.5%
Capex Growers Financial Leverage High Dividend Yield + Growth Pension Risk German Consumption Operating Leverage Stable Growers Energy Hedge Defensive High Dividend Yield Recovery Basket Regional exposure baskets BRIC exposure US exposure Domestic exposure Core Eurozone exposure Peripheral Eurozone exposure DM Nifty 50 EM Nifty 50 UK domestic exposure UK international exposure Peripheral Exporters STOXX Europe 600

GSSTCAPX GSSTFNLV GSSTHIDY GSSTPENS GSSTGCON GSSTOPLV GSSTGRTH GSSTENGY GSSTHDDY GSSTRCOV

-1.2 -0.9 -0.2 -1.2 -1.6 -1.2 -0.5 -2.0 -0.5 -1.2

0.5 -1.7 0.0 0.1 -2.8 -0.8 -1.1 -2.0 -0.6 -0.5

-2.0 2.8 2.9 16.0 12.2 1.8 4.2 -6.2 -3.7 3.2

12.5 10.2 9.3 8.5 10.5 10.3 11.8 11.3 9.6 10.3

1.7 1.3 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.9 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.2

4.0 4.8 5.5 3.9 3.4 3.7 4.1 3.0 5.2 3.8

GSSTBRIC GSSTAMER GSSTDOME GSSTCEMU GSSTPEMU GSSTDM50 GSSTEM50 GSSTUKDE GSSTUKIE GSSTPEXP

-0.5 0.0 -0.9 -0.7 -1.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 -1.1

1.2 1.0 -2.7 -1.4 -4.1 3.1 0.5 0.2 1.0 -0.4 -0.3

-1.1 5.4 -4.8 1.1 -12.7 -2.1 4.3 19.3 -4.2 1.1 10.6

11.4 11.9 11.1 11.5 10.4 11.8 10.9 12.5 12.1 10.2 10.9

1.3 2.0 1.0 1.4 0.8 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.1 1.3 1.5

3.6 4.0 5.4 5.9 5.0 2.3 3.0 4.0 3.5 4.1 3.8

Relative performance since last Strategy in Style (21/06/2012)


-4.0 -2.0
% 4.3 4.1 3.3 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 -1.6 -3.3 -3.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0
6.7

8.0

UK Domestic Periphery Pension Risk Periphery Exporters BRIC Exposure HIDY UK International German Consumer EM Nifty 50 DOME US Exposure Dividend Risk DM Nifty 50 Capex Beneficiaries Recovery Defensive Yield Operating Leverage Financial Leverage Core Stable Growers

Results presented should not and cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. Further details on performance calculations can be provided upon request. Note: The ability to trade these baskets will depend upon market conditions, including liquidity and borrow constraints at the time of trade. Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

The relative performance of our European baskets is computed against the STOXX Europe 600, for our UK baskets, the performance is computed against the FTSE All-Shares index. Our EM Nifty 50 is benchmarked against the MSCI BRIC index and our DM Nifty 50 basket against the MSCI World index. STOXX Europe 600 performance in absolute terms Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTOPLV: Operating leverage basket


Key criteria: We screen for companies with a median historical operating leverage above the 88th percentile of the STOXX Europe
600 ex-financials.

Sector exposure: Industrial goods & services 23%, basic resources 14%.
Exhibit 6: Constituents of GSSTOPLV
Current Market Cap Name Automobiles & Parts Daimler (Xet) Porsche Aml.Hldg. (Xet) Pref. Renault Volkswagen Pref. (Xet) Basic Resources Anglo American Boliden Salzgitter (Xet) Ssab 'A' Upm-Kymmene Construction & Materials Ferrovial Chemicals K + S (Xet) Dsm Koninklijke Umicore Industrial Goods & Services A P Moller - Maersk 'B' Deutsche Post (Xet) Eads (Par) Man (Xet) Mtu Aero Engines (Xet) Hldg. Nexans Hexagon 'B' Thyssenkrupp (Xet) Outotec Skf 'B' Median Weight 11.4% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 14.3% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 8.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 22.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% (EUR Bn) 39.4 14.3 10.3 70.1 29.2 3.7 1.8 1.9 4.4 8.0 6.9 6.5 4.5 23.8 18.5 22.1 11.6 3.2 0.9 6.6 9.2 1.7 8.2 Historical Degree of operating leverage 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.6 6.5 3.6 3.7 2.9 2.4 3.2 2.2 3.5 4.0 2.8 16.5 2.8 2.7 11.8 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.2 Current Market Cap Name Media Eutelsat Communications Modern Times Gp.Mtg 'B' Reed Elsevier (Ams) Oil & Gas Aker Solutions Cie.Gl.De Gphyq.-Vert. Personal & Household Goods Philips Eltn.Koninklijke The Swatch Group 'B' Adidas (Xet) Retail Dufry 'R' Technology Asml Holding Telecommunications Tdc Travel & Leisure Deutsche Lufthansa (Xet) Weight 8.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 8.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 8.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% (EUR Bn) 5.4 1.7 7.7 4.1 3.9 18.4 17.3 13.9 2.7 18.1 4.2 5.6 Historical Degree of operating leverage 2.7 4.2 2.8 2.3 3.3 5.7 2.7 2.2 2.5 2.4 3.7 2.1

Sales Growth 2013E 4% NA 5% 5% 20% 5% 1% 7% -4% NA 3% 5% 4% 9% 4% NA 10% NA 5% 8% -5% 4% 4% 2014E 7% NA 6% 5% 0% -3% 5% 7% 0% NA 3% 7% 9% -3% 5% NA 1% NA 3% 9% 5% 10% 7%

EBIT Growth 2013E 5% NA 69% 27% 42% 23% 104% 557% 0% NA 7% 26% 17% 31% 8% NA 83% NA 17% 14% 119% 10% 11% 2014E 27% NA 25% 17% -16% 11% 65% 43% -2% NA 5% 10% 15% 6% 12% NA 1% NA 0% 17% 24% 14% 13%

Sales Growth 2013E 7% 5% 1% 14% 35% 4% 12% 8% 25% 2% 0% 5% 2014E 7% 5% 4% 8% 9% 3% 12% 8% 23% 21% 1% 3%

EBIT Growth 2013E 6% -13% 2% 33% 93% 28% 21% 25% 35% -1% -1% 47% 2014E 7% 25% 8% 21% 23% 8% 22% 19% 30% 42% 1% 25%

6.9

2.9

5%

6%

25%

19%

Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Quantum database.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTFNLV: Financial leverage basket


Key criteria: We screen for companies with 2013E and 2014E net debt/equity and 2013E and 2014E net debt/market cap above 70th
percentile and interest cover below the median (based on GS coverage).

Sector exposure: Industrial goods & services 16%, telecommunications 16%, retail 16%.
Exhibit 7: Constituents of GSSTFNLV
FINANCIAL LEVERAGE BASKET (GSSTFNLV)
Current market cap Basket weights (%) (Bn) 8.0% 4.0% 1.9 4.0% 0.8 4.0% 4.0% 2.4 12.0% 4.0% 18.7 4.0% 13.2 4.0% 2.4 4.0% 4.0% 14.8 16.0% 4.0% 2.1 4.0% 3.8 4.0% 4.6 4.0% 4.0 8.0% 4.0% 1.5 4.0% 5.4 4.0% 4.0% 14.4 16.0% 4.0% 7.2 4.0% 7.7 4.0% 7.5 4.0% 12.8 4.0% 4.0% 1.4 16.0% 4.0% 45.7 4.0% 4.2 4.0% 3.3 4.0% 3.1 8.0% 4.0% 3.9 4.0% 38.9 4.2 Net debt/equity 13E 61% 59% 60% 93% 60% NM 72% 100% 61% 116% 120% 67% 146% 163% 68% 89% 76% 95% 104% 179% 94% NM 163% 116% 60% 93% Net debt/equity 14E 55% 60% 62% 88% 53% NM 61% 89% 53% 103% 118% 58% 187% 172% 58% 87% 69% 81% 99% 142% 95% NM 180% 115% 59% 87% Interest cover 13E 2.7 2.5 2.4 4.7 2.8 1.8 5.4 5.4 3.2 4.1 3.0 3.2 5.5 5.9 2.8 6.2 3.3 3.1 7.2 3.1 4.1 1.7 4.0 2.5 3.5 3.2 Interest cover 14E 3.9 4.7 2.8 5.0 3.5 2.0 6.3 6.0 3.8 4.8 3.3 3.3 5.6 6.1 2.9 7.0 4.0 3.2 7.2 3.2 4.3 1.8 5.3 2.8 3.8 3.9 Net debt/market cap 13E 105% 103% 71% 70% 80% 573% 58% 55% 64% 51% 75% 103% 55% 62% 52% 39% 81% 55% 57% 100% 67% 234% 48% 188% 104% 70% Net debt/market cap 14E 99% 98% 72% 67% 73% 563% 53% 52% 56% 48% 78% 92% 64% 65% 46% 35% 68% 50% 56% 93% 63% 236% 45% 187% 104% 67%

Company name Basic Resources SSAB Nyrstar Chemicals Clariant Construction & Materials Vinci Lafarge Eiffage Health Care Fresenius SE & Co KGaA Industrial Goods & Services Securitas AB Rexel G4S Plc Fraport AG Media Mediaset Eutelsat Communications Oil & Gas SeaDrill Ltd Retail Metro Marks & Spencer Casino Carrefour Technology Neopost Telecommunications Telefonica TDC A/S Portugal Telecom Inmarsat Plc Utilities Suez Environnement GDF SUEZ Median

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Quantum database.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTRCOV: Recovery basket


Key criteria: Companies with both high operating leverage and high financial leverage. Sector exposure: Industrial goods & services 25%, basic resources 11%, retail 9%.
Exhibit 8: Constituents of GSSTRCOV
Market Cap ( Bn) 38.4 13.9 10.1 66.7 27.6 3.6 0.8 1.9 1.9 4.3 2.5 6.8 6.9 4.4 2.3 8.0 13.0 18.0 14.6 24.2 18.1 21.2 4.0 4.4 6.5 11.5 3.1 0.9 1.6 3.8 2.2 8.1 8.9 6.8 Recovery (GSSTRCOV) Dividend Yield Company Name 2013 Media 6.1% Eutelsat Communications 0.0% Mediaset 8.0% Modern Times Gp.Mtg 'B' 3.2% Reed Elsevier (Ams) Oil & Gas 2.8% Aker Solutions 4.5% Cie.Gl.De Gphyq.-Vert. 2.5% SeaDrill Ltd Personal & Household Goods 0.4% 1.7% Adidas (Xet) 7.3% Philips Eltn.Koninklijke The Swatch Group 'B' Retail 2.6% 2.5% 4.8% 2.5% 5.8% 4.5% 2.7% 5.4% 1.7% 2.4% 5.1% 3.0% 2.9% 3.5% 0.0% 2.7% 2.4% 4.0% 2.9% 4.9% 5.4% 4.6% 2.6% 3.5% Carrefour Casino Dufry 'R' Marks & Spencer Metro Technology Asml Holding Neopost Telecommunications Inmarsat Plc Portugal Telecom TDC A/S Telefonica Travel & Leisure Deutsche Lufthansa (Xet) Utilties GDF SUEZ Suez Environnement Market Cap ( Bn) 5.3 1.4 1.6 7.8 3.9 3.7 14.0 13.5 18.2 17.8 12.5 7.5 2.7 7.6 7.0 17.9 1.4 3.0 3.2 4.1 45.1 5.7 37.1 4.0 Dividend Yield 2013 5.4% 1.4% 3.4% 4.4% 3.5% 0.0% 9.1% 2.1% 3.4% 2.0% 3.5% 5.1% 0.0% 5.3% 6.1% 1.3% 10.3% 5.6% 8.6% 8.8% 0.0% 3.9% 9.0% 8.1%

Company Name Automobiles & Parts Daimler (Xet) Porsche Aml.Hldg. (Xet) Pref. Renault Volkswagen Pref. (Xet) Basic Resources Anglo American Boliden Nyrstar Salzgitter (Xet) SSAB Upm-Kymmene Chemicals Clariant Dsm Koninklijke K + S (Xet) Umicore Construction & Materials Eiffage Ferrovial Lafarge Vinci Health Care Fresenius SE & Co KGaA Industrial Goods & Services A P Moller - Maersk 'B' Deutsche Post (Xet) Eads (Par) Fraport AG G4S Plc Hexagon 'B' Man (Xet) Mtu Aero Engines (Xet) Hldg. Nexans Outotec Rexel Securitas AB Skf 'B' Thyssenkrupp (Xet) Median

Weight 7.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 10.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 7.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 7.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 24.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

P/E 2013 7.6 5.1 3.1 6.4 10.5 7.3 11.6 23.5 12.1 15.5 11.8 11.8 10.5 14.4 8.8 34.3 12.8 9.5 14.4 5.9 10.2 10.2 15.6 10.5 14.9 14.3 12.6 7.5 11.1 9.1 9.9 12.7 8.8 10.7

P/B 2013 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.8 2.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.5 0.5 2.8 0.8 1.8 2.6 1.1 1.4

Weight 7.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 5.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 5.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 8.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 3.5% 1.8% 1.8% 7.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 3.5% 1.8% 1.8%

P/E 2013 14.1 20.9 10.3 10.7 9.9 10.1 11.0 12.5 12.9 12.6 13.0 10.7 8.5 9.7 9.1 17.4 7.1 15.8 11.8 9.1 10.4 15.5 10.5 13.2

P/B 2013 3.6 0.8 2.3 4.0 1.9 1.0 2.9 2.1 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.4 2.4 2.2 1.1 4.2 1.8 3.6 1.7 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.8

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Quantum database.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTHIDY: High dividend yield + growth basket


Key criteria: Stocks with a 2012E dividend yield (payable in 2013) above 4% based on our analysts forecasts. We exclude companies with: a market cap below 1 bn; 2012/13E payout ratios above 70%; 2012E FCF coverage of less than 0.75x (1x in 2013E); 2012E net debt/EBITDA above 3.5x; forecast dividend growth below 5%; option-implied dividend growth below 20%; and CDS above 300 bp. We also exclude stocks rated Sell by our analysts. We include financials. We have relaxed some criteria for oil & gas stocks. Sector exposure: Media 15%, insurance 15%, industrial goods & services 10%. Exhibit 9: Constituents of GSSTHIDY
HIGH DIVIDEND YIELD AND GROWTH BASKET (GSSTHIDY)
Basket Market cap Company name weights (%) (Bn) 4.9% Automobiles & Parts BMW 2.4% 41.0 Daimler AG 2.4% 38.6 9.8% Construction & Materials Bouygues 2.4% 5.7 Royal Boskalis Westminster N.V 2.4% 3.0 Saint-Gobain 2.4% 15.2 Vinci 2.4% 18.1 4.9% Financial Services Groupe Bruxelles Lambert 2.4% 9.3 ICAP plc 2.4% 2.5 2.4% Food & Beverage Britvic Plc 2.4% 1.1 7.3% Health Care AstraZeneca 2.4% 49.8 GlaxoSmithKline 2.4% 87.1 Roche 2.4% 129.2 9.8% Industrial Goods & Services Deutsche Post 2.4% 18.0 Randstad Holdings 2.4% 4.4 Sandvik 2.4% 13.6 Siemens AG 2.4% 66.4 14.6% Insurance Allianz SE 2.4% 42.2 Legal & General Group 2.4% 10.4 Munich Re (reg) 2.4% 22.5 Sampo 2.4% 13.4 SCOR 2.4% 3.8 Zurich Insurance Group 2.4% 28.2 14.6% Media Axel Springer AG 2.4% 3.2 Informa 2.4% 3.0 Reed Elsevier (NL) 2.4% 7.8 SES SA 2.4% 8.6 UBM plc 2.4% 2.1 Vivendi 2.4% 17.4 9.8% Oil & Gas ENI 2.4% 63.2 OMV 2.4% 9.0 Royal Dutch Shell plc (A) 2.4% 168.7 Statoil 2.4% 60.1 2.4% Personal & Household Goods British American Tobacco 2.4% 77.7 4.9% Retail Casino 2.4% 7.5 Marks & Spencer 2.4% 7.6 7.3% Telecommunications Swisscom 2.4% 16.3 Telenor 2.4% 25.8 TeliaSonera 2.4% 22.7 2.4% Travel & Leisure TUI Travel Plc 2.4% 3.5 4.9% Utilities Centrica 2.4% 20.7 Fortum 2.4% 12.4 Median 15.2 Beta (6 month) 1.57 1.54 1.43 1.40 1.73 1.62 1.00 1.29 0.76 0.49 0.33 0.42 1.17 1.67 1.58 1.04 1.31 1.18 1.12 1.13 0.90 0.77 0.89 1.02 0.69 0.46 1.33 1.03 1.35 1.12 0.58 1.02 0.50 1.06 0.88 0.42 0.62 0.82 1.21 0.46 0.75 1.03 Dividend yield 2012E 2013E 4.6% 6.1% 8.9% 4.3% 4.6% 5.4% 4.7% 7.1% 5.4% 6.4% 5.5% 4.3% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 4.0% 4.8% 5.1% 5.3% 5.0% 5.9% 7.3% 5.4% 4.5% 4.2% 4.6% 4.1% 6.7% 6.2% 4.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.7% 5.8% 4.8% 6.9% 4.8% 4.9% 7.2% 4.9% 4.8% 6.1% 8.9% 4.5% 5.1% 5.4% 4.9% 7.5% 5.8% 6.4% 5.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.9% 5.4% 4.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.0% 5.9% 7.3% 5.5% 4.6% 4.4% 5.1% 4.6% 7.5% 6.3% 4.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.7% 5.1% 5.3% 5.8% 5.7% 9.9% 5.0% 5.0% 7.2% 5.3% DPS growth (forecast) DPS growth (implied) 2012E 2013E 2012 2013 29.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 5.0% 2.8% 9.5% 5.5% -0.1% 13.1% 0.9% 0.0% 23.1% 5.1% 0.0% 12.0% 8.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 3.9% 4.9% 14.6% 14.2% 9.0% 0.0% 3.8% 4.5% 11.1% 3.0% 6.1% 1.3% 6.3% 0.0% 10.0% 5.3% 4.9% 2.7% 0.0% 4.8% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 11.5% 0.0% 5.0% 6.6% 6.3% -0.6% 7.0% 17.6% 8.1% 0.0% 25.0% 8.6% 11.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.9% 4.3% 9.5% 10.9% 12.4% 2.0% 4.3% 3.5% 3.0% 10.9% 12.9% 13.0% 0.0% 18.2% 43.3% 3.9% 0.7% 0.0% 4.6% 5.9% -9.1% -14.1% 0.0% -7.2% -12.4% 3.8% 5.0% 3.4% 11.4% -5.1% 3.9% -0.7% 0.0% 23.1% -1.0% -4.5% 10.4% 0.8% -16.7% 4.5% -5.9% 5.7% -11.5% 7.3% 3.2% -5.3% 3.2% 3.7% 5.8% 4.1% 7.1% 0.0% 1.8% -6.5% 0.0% 0.0% -4.5% -4.0% 6.1% -4.8% 0.0% 13.0% -6.7% Payout ratio 2012E 2013E 40% 48% 50% 57% 47% 52% 64% 61% 53% 46% 68% 55% 55% 61% 51% 43% 40% 51% 38% 51% 56% 70% 60% 45% 47% 65% 50% 52% 52% 24% 40% 40% 65% 57% 51% 61% 66% 75% 48% 63% 74% 52% 40% 46% 48% 53% 47% 52% 58% 63% 54% 46% 68% 58% 52% 55% 63% 44% 41% 51% 43% 51% 47% 57% 63% 45% 47% 65% 46% 53% 49% 29% 42% 48% 65% 55% 51% 64% 62% 99% 48% 58% 67% 52% 2.6x 2.9x 2.0x 0.9x 2.4x 3.3x 1.3x 5.7x 1.2x 0.7x 1.5x 3.9x 1.0x 1.5x 1.8x 2.6x 2.0x 1.4x 1.7x 1.6x 3.0x 2.7x 2.2x 1.2x 2.6x 4.2x 1.3x 4.9x 0.9x 0.0x 1.5x 13.0x 1.0x 1.3x 2.5x 1.1x 2.0x 2.0x 1.9x 1.8x 1.0x 2.3x 1.7x 2.9x 1.9x 1.7x 0.4x 0.9x 0.3x 0.2x 1.6x 2.4x 1.8x 1.8x 0.6x 1.5x 0.6x 1.7x 3.2x 1.3x 0.8x 1.8x 1.3x 3.0x 1.3x 1.4x 0.3x 0.8x 0.3x 0.4x 1.5x 1.9x 1.7x 1.7x 0.5x 1.4x 0.4x 1.7x 3.1x 1.3x 62 bps 63 bps 84 bps Free cash flow cover 2012E 2013E 1.9x 0.7x 1.9x 1.3x 1.2x 1.6x 1.9x 1.7x 0.7x 3.6x 1.4x 1.4x 2.0x 2.2x Net debt/EBITDA 2012E 2013E -0.7x -0.7x 1.5x 0.6x 3.1x 2.7x 1.0x -0.7x 2.9x 0.4x 1.3x 0.8x 1.1x 2.0x 1.2x 0.3x -0.8x -0.6x 1.3x 0.5x 2.8x 2.6x 0.7x -0.9x 2.7x 0.4x 1.4x 0.5x 1.0x 1.6x 1.1x 0.1x 57 bps 51 bps 5 year CDS 95 bps 115 bps 168 bps 183 bps 133 bps

1.2x 1.6x 2.0x 2.5x 0.5x 1.5x 1.2x 1.4x

1.4x 1.2x 1.8x 1.9x 1.1x 1.8x 1.2x 2.1x

59 bps

60 bps 105 bps 132 bps 73 bps 141 bps 147 bps

6.7% 12.7% 0.0% 5.8% -20.0% -5.2% 9.1% 1.8% 3.8% 8.0% 6.7% 11.1% -6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 8.0% 0.0% 1.3%

7.9% 9.3% 0.0% 3.5% -13.3% -10.4% 12.5% -1.4% 6.7% 10.6% 0.0% 6.4% -4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.9%

69 bps 151 bps 162 bps 141 bps 54 bps 62 bps 51 bps 153 bps 220 bps 64 bps 52 bps 53 bps

Source: Bloomberg, Quantum database, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTHDDY: High and defensive dividend yield


Key criteria: Stocks with a 2012E dividend yield (payable in 2013) above 4.5% based on our analysts forecasts. We exclude companies
with: a market cap below 1 bn; 2012/13E payout ratios above 80%; 2013E net debt/EBITDA above 3.5x; and CDS above 300 bp. We also exclude stocks rated Sell by our analysts. In addition, we exclude financials and cyclicals. We have relaxed some criteria for oil & gas stocks.

Sector exposure: Media 19%, retail 19%, utilities 13%, oil & gas 13%.

Exhibit 10: Constituents of GSSTHDDY


HIGH AND DEFENSIVE DIVIDEND YIELD BASKET (GSSTHDDY)
Company name Food & Beverage Britvic Plc Health Care AstraZeneca GlaxoSmithKline Roche Media Axel Springer AG Informa Reed Elsevier (NL) SES SA UBM plc Vivendi Oil & Gas ENI OMV Royal Dutch Shell plc (A) Statoil Personal & Household Goods British American Tobacco Electrolux Retail Ahold Casino Delhaize Marks & Spencer Metro Tesco Technology Eutelsat Communications Telecommunications Royal KPN NV Swisscom Telenor Travel & Leisure Lottomatica TUI Travel Plc Utilities Centrica Drax Group Plc Enel SpA Fortum Median Basket Market cap weights (%) (Bn) 3.1% 3.1% 1.1 9.4% 3.1% 49.8 3.1% 87.1 3.1% 129.2 18.8% 3.1% 3.2 3.1% 3.0 3.1% 7.8 3.1% 8.6 3.1% 2.1 3.1% 17.4 12.5% 3.1% 63.2 3.1% 9.0 3.1% 168.7 3.1% 60.1 6.3% 3.1% 77.7 3.1% 5.5 18.8% 3.1% 10.8 3.1% 7.5 3.1% 2.8 3.1% 7.6 3.1% 7.0 3.1% 32.6 3.1% 3.1% 5.3 9.4% 3.1% 6.8 3.1% 16.3 3.1% 25.8 6.3% 3.1% 3.0 3.1% 3.5 12.5% 3.1% 20.7 3.1% 2.7 3.1% 26.1 3.1% 12.4 8.8 Beta (6 month) 0.76 0.49 0.33 0.42 0.89 1.02 0.69 0.46 1.33 1.03 1.35 1.12 0.58 1.02 0.50 1.46 0.40 1.06 0.75 0.88 0.93 0.55 0.64 0.35 0.42 0.62 0.99 1.21 0.46 0.57 1.22 0.75 0.75 Dividend yield 2012E 2013E 5.4% 6.4% 5.5% 4.3% 5.4% 4.5% 4.2% 4.6% 4.1% 6.7% 6.2% 4.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 4.5% 5.0% 4.7% 6.1% 4.5% 4.6% 7.5% 5.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 4.2% 5.2% 7.2% 4.8% 5.8% 6.4% 5.9% 5.0% 5.5% 4.6% 4.4% 5.1% 4.6% 7.5% 6.3% 4.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.7% 4.1% 5.0% 5.1% 5.4% 5.3% 6.1% 5.0% 5.4% 0.0% 5.8% 5.7% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 3.1% 5.2% 7.2% 5.1% DPS growth (forecast) DPS growth (implied) 2012E 2013E 2012 2013 9.5% 5.5% -0.1% 13.1% 3.9% 4.9% 14.6% 14.2% 9.0% 0.0% 3.8% 4.5% 11.1% 3.0% 6.1% 3.1% 11.0% 1.3% -19.0% 6.3% -3.8% 0.4% 16.1% -58.8% 0.0% 10.0% 3.0% 4.9% 2.7% -17.9% -44.1% 0.0% 3.9% 6.3% -0.6% 7.0% 17.6% 1.0% 2.9% 4.3% 9.5% 10.9% 12.4% 2.0% 4.3% 3.5% 3.0% 10.9% 0.7% 9.3% 12.9% 7.2% 13.0% 0.0% 9.6% 18.0% -100.0% 0.0% 18.2% 3.0% 3.9% 0.7% -26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 3.4% 11.4% -5.1% 3.9% 4.1% 7.1% 0.0% 1.8% Payout ratio 2012E 2013E 53% 46% 68% 55% 60% 45% 47% 65% 50% 52% 52% 24% 40% 40% 65% 51% 44% 57% 35% 51% 55% 46% 71% 43% 61% 66% 79% 48% 63% 47% 40% 74% 51% 54% 46% 68% 58% 63% 45% 47% 65% 46% 53% 49% 29% 42% 48% 65% 39% 44% 55% 35% 51% 55% 46% 76% 0% 64% 62% 78% 48% 58% 50% 45% 67% 51% Free cash flow cover 2012E 2013E 1.2x 1.6x 2.0x 2.5x 2.6x 2.9x 2.0x 0.9x 2.4x 3.3x 1.3x 5.7x 1.2x 0.7x 1.5x 1.1x 0.5x 3.9x 2.7x 1.0x -0.2x 0.7x 1.1x 2.0x 1.5x 1.8x 4.5x 2.0x 1.4x -1.0x 4.2x 1.7x 1.6x 1.4x 1.2x 1.8x 1.9x 3.0x 2.7x 2.2x 1.2x 2.6x 4.2x 1.3x 4.9x 0.9x 0.0x 1.5x 2.0x 1.9x 13.0x 1.2x 1.0x 2.2x 1.2x 1.2x Net debt/EBITDA 2012E 2013E 2.9x 0.4x 1.3x 0.8x 1.0x 2.3x 1.7x 2.9x 1.9x 1.7x 0.4x 0.9x 0.3x 0.2x 1.6x 1.1x 1.2x 2.4x 2.0x 1.8x 1.6x 1.6x 2.6x 2.8x 1.8x 0.6x 2.5x 0.6x 1.7x -0.7x 3.4x 3.2x 1.7x 2.7x 0.4x 1.4x 0.5x 0.8x 1.8x 1.3x 3.0x 1.3x 1.4x 0.3x 0.8x 0.3x 0.4x 1.5x 0.8x 1.2x 1.9x 1.8x 1.7x 1.4x 1.2x 2.7x 2.8x 1.7x 0.5x 2.0x 0.4x 1.7x -0.1x 3.3x 3.1x 1.4x 62 bps 265 bps 63 bps 69 bps 167 bps 64 bps 52 bps 57 bps 51 bps 5 year CDS

6.7% 12.7% 0.0% 5.8% -25.0% -5.2% 9.1% 1.8% 3.8% 8.0% -15.4% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 11.1% 7.4% -6.8% 15.0% -59.4% -6.3% 0.0%

7.9% 9.3% 0.0% 3.5% -13.3% -10.4% 12.5% -1.4% 6.7% 10.6% 18.2% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% -3.6% -4.2% 0.0%

69 bps 151 bps 162 bps 141 bps 54 bps 62 bps 51 bps 69 bps 126 bps 153 bps 220 bps 230 bps 101 bps

1.3x 2.5x 4.2x 2.0x 2.0x -3.9x 7.2x 1.9x 1.9x

5.3% 8.0% -26.7% -25.6% 0.0% 2.6%

9.2% 4.4% -24.5% -11.8% 0.0% 0.9%

Source: Bloomberg, Quantum database, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

10

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTGRTH: Stable growers basket


Key criteria: Within each sector, we look for companies with the highest average growth to standard deviation on growth and
return metrics (net income growth, sales growth, ROE).

Sector exposure: Banks 9%, healthcare 9%, oil & gas 9%.
Exhibit 11: Constituents of GSSTGRTH
STABLE GROWERS BASKETS (GSSTGRTH)
Sales Growth 2002-2012E Basket weights (%) 2.9% 2.9% 8.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 8.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 8.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% Market cap (Bn) 4.2 44.3 17.6 28.1 132.5 16.0 10.5 24.2 18.7 2.6 52.3 102.4 2.1 5.7 15.6 7.2 3.5 3.6 6.4 3.3 6.7 3.7 14.4 34.2 21.0 3.3 32.7 43.1 5.2 6.7 3.1 25.4 9.1 4.8 16.9 10.5 Standard Avg / St Dev Average (%) Deviation (%) Ratio Average (%) 15% 15% 5% 4% 15% 25% 12% 12% 8% 9% 19% 19% 18% 16% 10% 20% 14% NM NM 9% 33% 47% 592% 10% 11% 6% 10% 11% 10% 31% 15% 9% 6% 11% 22% 12% 17% 10% 4% 5% 14% 30% 21% 23% 7% 11% 29% 18% 14% 7% 6% 12% 11% NM NM 10% 18% 48% 1495% 7% 8% 6% 4% 4% 9% 20% 25% 10% 3% 10% 18% 11% 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.3 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.3 NM NM 0.9 1.8 1.0 0.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 2.4 2.6 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.9 2.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 40% 21% 5% 13% 24% 47% 27% 22% 14% 10% 25% 29% 9% 16% 15% 30% 19% 10% 27% 13% 35% 57% 52% 17% 16% 6% 12% 15% 10% 29% 80% 19% 10% 17% 11% 17% Earnings Growth 2002-2012E ROE 2002-2012E Standard Standard Avg / St Dev Deviation Avg / St Dev Ratio Average (%) Deviation (%) Ratio (%) 63% 15% 9% 28% 36% 77% 46% 37% 13% 13% 19% 16% 7% 11% 6% 18% 9% 10% 41% 9% 19% 42% 79% 7% 32% 5% 9% 14% 7% 46% 134% 39% 5% 6% 22% 16% 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.5 2.5 1.7 2.0 1.0 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.7 2.3 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 2.2 2.6 0.5 1.1 20% NM NM NM 31% 20% 24% 9% 16% 20% 12% 12% 13% 19% 12% 24% 21% NM NM 35% 42% 19% 15% 35% 6% 7% 16% 37% 15% 33% 21% 15% 16% 19% 27% 19% 6% NM NM NM 9% 9% 6% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% 3% 1% 5% 3% NM NM 11% 7% 6% 9% 3% 1% 1% 1% 4% 1% 25% 10% 6% 2% 5% 5% 4% 3.5 NM NM NM 3.5 2.2 4.1 3.5 7.2 14.9 7.3 3.9 11.8 5.9 10.2 4.5 6.0 NM NM 3.1 6.0 3.1 1.6 11.4 7.7 6.2 11.6 8.7 16.2 1.3 2.1 2.5 6.8 4.1 5.7 5.8

Company name Automobiles & Parts Nokian Renkaat Banks Standard Chartered Svenska Handelsbanken Nordea Basic Resources BHP Billiton Plc Antofagasta plc Chemicals Yara Linde AG Construction & Materials Vinci Financial Services ICAP plc Food & Beverages SABMiller Anheuser-Busch InBev Healthcare Rhoen-Klinikum Getinge Fresenius Medical Care Industrial Goods & Services Aggreko Serco Insurance Admiral Group Plc Mapfre S.A. Media Aegis Group PLC Oil & Gas Petrofac Dragon Oil PLC SeaDrill Ltd Personal & Household Goods Reckitt Benckiser Christian Dior Real Estate Corio Retail Tesco Hennes & Mauritz Technology Sage Group Iliad Telecoms Inmarsat Plc Telenor Travel & Leisure Sodexo Utilities Red Electrica de Espana SSE Plc Median

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Quantum database.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

11

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTCAPX: Capex basket


Key criteria: Companies with high correlation between their sales growth and share of investment in world GDP. Sector exposure: Industrial goods & services 59%, Construction & Materials 9%.
Exhibit 12: Constituents of GSSTCAPX
CAPEXBENEFICARIESBASKET(GSSTCAPX) Name Chemicals LindeAG Construction&Materials AccionaS.A. FLSmidth&Co.A/S SikaAG IndustrialGoods&Services RollsRoyceHoldingsPLC AggrekoPLC BilfingerSE MichaelPageInternationalPLC RandstadHoldingN.V. ScaniaABB Nexans RexelS.A. ABBLtd. SulzerAG WeirGroupPLC MetsoCorp. AtlasCopcoAB GEAGroupAG AndritzAg GeorgFischerAG SchindlerHldgAGPtg SKFAB KoninklijkeVopakN.V. Media Vivendi Oil&Gas FugroN.V. CGGVeritas CairnEnergyPLC Technology EricssonLMShsB SAPAG Capgemini Travel&Leisure DeutscheLufthansaAG InterContinentalHotelsGroupPLC Median Weights 3.1% 3.1% 9.4% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 59.4% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 9.4% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 9.4% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 6.3% 3.1% 3.1% ICBLevel4subsector Correlationofsales withinvestmentshare NTMP/E ofGDP 0.43 0.52 0.43 0.41 0.46 0.75 0.50 0.73 0.55 0.54 0.63 0.58 0.80 0.64 0.58 0.58 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.46 0.51 0.50 0.48 0.42 0.47 0.47 0.43 0.49 0.44 0.49 14.8 20.2 10.3 15.4 13.8 19.6 13.0 23.9 11.6 13.4 10.3 9.1 12.3 14.2 12.0 9.8 14.3 12.1 16.1 8.8 19.1 12.9 18.3 7.6 12.6 11.6 74.9 12.3 16.0 11.5 12.6 15.9 12.7

CommodityChemicals HeavyConstruction BuildingMaterials&Fixtures BuildingMaterials&Fixtures Aerospace BusinessSupportServices BusinessSupportServices BusinessTraining&EmploymentAgencies BusinessTraining&EmploymentAgencies CommercialVehicles&Trucks ElectricalComponents&Equipment ElectricalComponents&Equipment IndustrialMachinery IndustrialMachinery IndustrialMachinery IndustrialMachinery IndustrialMachinery IndustrialMachinery IndustrialMachinery IndustrialMachinery IndustrialMachinery IndustrialMachinery MarineTransportation Broadcasting&Entertainment OilEquipment&Services OilEquipment&Services Exploration&Production TelecommunicationsEquipment Software ComputerServices Airlines Hotels

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Quantum database.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

12

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTGCON: German consumer basket


Key criteria: Consumer-facing companies with at least 23% exposure to Germany Sector exposure: Retail 19%, media 19%, automobiles & parts 15%.
Exhibit 13: Constituents of GSSTGCON
Company Name Automobiles & Parts Porsche Aml.Hldg. (Xet) Pref. Daimler (Xet) Continental (Xet) Rheinmetall (Xet) Construction & Materials Geberit 'R' Food & Beverage Suedzucker (Xet) Baywa Industrial Goods & Services Tomra Systems Insurance Allianz (Xet) Media Sky Deutschland Axel Springer Prosieben Sat 1 Pf.(Xet) Kabel Deutschland Hldg. Ses Fdr (Par) Personal & Household Goods Loewe Gerry Weber Intl. Real Estate Gagfah Retail Fielmann Praktiker Bauheim.Hldg. Douglas Holding Metro (Xet) Charles Vogele Technology Wincor Nixdorf (Xet) Telecommunications Deutsche Telekom (Xet) Freenet (Xet) Kpn kon Travel & Leisure Tui Travel Median German Consumer (GSSTGCON) Basket Country Weights 14.8% 3.7% Germany 3.7% Germany 3.7% Germany 3.7% Germany 3.7% 3.7% Switzerland 7.4% 3.7% Germany 3.7% Germany 3.7% 3.7% Norway 3.7% 3.7% Germany 18.5% 3.7% Germany 3.7% Germany 3.7% Germany 3.7% Germany 3.7% Luxembourg 7.4% 3.7% Germany 3.7% Germany 3.7% 3.7% Luxembourg 18.5% 3.7% Germany 3.7% Germany 3.7% Germany 3.7% Germany 3.7% Switzerland 3.7% 3.7% Germany 11.1% 3.7% Germany 3.7% Germany 3.7% Netherlands 3.7% 3.7% United Kingdom Market Cap Sales Exposure to ( Bn) Germany 15.5 38.5 15.2 1.3 6.1 5.8 1.2 0.9 43.0 2.6 3.2 4.6 4.9 8.7 0.0 1.6 1.8 3.1 0.1 1.5 7.0 0.1 1.1 36.2 1.8 6.7 3.5 3.2 29 % 23 % 26 % 30 % 34 % 29 % 65 % 43 % 34 % NA 67 % 70 % 100 % 24 % 62 % 60 % 100 % 80 % 71 % 67 % 39 % 39 % 26 % 39 % 100 % 25 % 29 % 39 %

Source: Worldscope, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

13

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTPENS: Companies with high pension risk


Key criteria: Stocks with high pension risk (see Strategy Matters Pension apprehension risks from lower bond yields and
regulation, June 14 2012.)
Exhibit 14: Constituents of GSSTPENS
Company Alcatel-Lucent/France Air France-KLM Fiat SpA IAG Group PostNL NV Invensys PLC Peugeot SA BT Group PLC Deutsche Lufthansa AG BAE Systems PLC RBS Group PLC Akzo Nobel NV RSA Group PLC Koninklijke KPN NV Philips Electronics NV DMGT PLC Georg Fischer AG Aviva PLC Lonza Group AG Delta Lloyd NV GKN PLC Electricite de France SA Marks & Spencer PLC RWE AG Smiths Group PLC Salzgitter AG Thales SA Volkswagen AG ThyssenKrupp AG Babcock Intl PLC J Sainsbury PLC National Grid PLC Finmeccanica SpA Lloyds Group PLC Commerzbank AG Rexam PLC ITV PLC Barclays PLC Nexans SA Deutsche Post AG Clariant AG AtoS Swiss Life Holding AG Baloise Holding AG Aegon NV Cie de St-Gobain Alstom SA ING Groep NV AXA SA Michelin Median STOXX Europe 600 SEDOL 5975006 4916039 5748521 B5M6XQ7 5481558 B19DVX6 7103526 3091357 5287488 0263494 B7T7721 5458314 0661689 5956078 5986622 0945736 4341783 0216238 7333378 B574ZG0 3064650 B0NJJ17 3127489 4768962 B1WY233 5465358 4162791 5497168 5636927 0969703 B019KW7 B08SNH3 B0DJNG0 0870612 4325538 0425045 3398649 3134865 7130836 4617859 7113990 5654781 7437805 7124594 5927375 7380482 B0DJ8Q5 7154182 7088429 4588364 Country France France Italy Britain Netherlands Britain France Britain Germany Britain Britain Netherlands Britain Netherlands Netherlands Britain Switzerland Britain Switzerland Netherlands Britain France Britain Germany Britain Germany France Germany Germany Britain Britain Britain Italy Britain Germany Britain Britain Britain France Germany Switzerland France Switzerland Switzerland Netherlands France France Netherlands France France Sector Technology Travel & Leisure Automobiles & Parts Travel & Leisure Industrial Goods & Services Industrial Goods & Services Automobiles & Parts Telecommunications Travel & Leisure Industrial Goods & Services Banks Chemicals Insurance Telecommunications Personal & Household Goods Media Industrial Goods & Services Insurance Health Care Insurance Automobiles & Parts Utilities Retail Utilities Industrial Goods & Services Basic Resources Industrial Goods & Services Automobiles & Parts Industrial Goods & Services Industrial Goods & Services Retail Utilities Industrial Goods & Services Banks Banks Industrial Goods & Services Media Banks Industrial Goods & Services Industrial Goods & Services Chemicals Technology Insurance Insurance Insurance Construction & Materials Industrial Goods & Services Insurance Insurance Automobiles & Parts Last reporting 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/03/2012 31/12/2011 31/03/2012 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 02/10/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/03/2012 31/12/2011 31/07/2012 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 30/09/2011 31/03/2012 17/03/2012 31/03/2012 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/03/2012 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 31/12/2011 Pension obl. % of mkt cap. 1519% 646% 605% 507% 505% 326% 239% 228% 224% 221% 154% 150% 144% 126% 116% 112% 108% 104% 103% 102% 101% 100% 98% 96% 94% 93% 89% 88% 88% 87% 86% 85% 84% 83% 79% 79% 79% 76% 73% 73% 73% 73% 70% 68% 66% 65% 65% 62% 58% 56% 94% 28% Deficit % of mkt cap. -90% 32% -139% -11% 8% -22% -41% -14% -82% -53% -12% -5% -5% -16% -6% -20% -20% 12% -17% -2% -25% -56% 1% -20% -14% -93% -29% -63% -68% -7% -7% -6% -10% 2% -6% -10% -10% -1% -34% -33% -21% -4% -42% -18% -36% -21% -17% 15% -25% -15% -16% -6% Solvency 94% 105% 77% 98% 102% 93% 83% 94% 63% 76% 92% 97% 97% 87% 95% 82% 82% 112% 84% 98% 76% 45% 101% 79% 85% 0% 67% 28% 23% 92% 92% 93% 88% 102% 92% 87% 87% 99% 53% 56% 71% 94% 40% 74% 46% 67% 74% 124% 57% 73% 86% 77% Discount rate 3.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 5.0% 4.3% 4.8% 5.2% 4.6% 4.9% 3.8% 4.1% 5.2% 2.9% 4.9% 3.4% 4.2% 4.7% 4.9% 4.6% 5.3% 4.0% 4.3% 4.7% 5.0% 4.8% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.4% 4.7% 4.7% 4.5% 4.8% 3.9% 4.7% 2.7% 2.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.3% 5.3% 3.9% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6% Exp. LT return 6.4% 5.6% 7.2% 4.6% 6.5% 4.5% 5.2% 5.4% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3% 6.1% 4.2% 5.6% 6.7% 3.9% 4.2% 4.2% 3.5% 5.5% 4.9% 4.9% 5.1% 5.4% 5.7% 5.5% 6.1% 6.6% 5.3% 6.1% 5.5% 5.0% 5.4% 4.7% 5.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 4.6% 5.6% 3.6% 2.5% 6.5% 6.3% 5.1% 4.9% 4.3% 6.9% 5.3% 5.5% Diff. 2.5% 0.7% 2.5% -0.3% 1.7% -0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 1.2% 0.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% -0.7% 0.8% -0.7% 0.8% -0.1% 0.3% -0.2% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 1.2% 1.8% 0.3% 1.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% -0.3% 1.9% 1.7% 0.8% -0.4% 0.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.9% Corridor accounting Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Bonds 66% 52% 43% 47% 38% 72% 65% 38% 46% 40% 49% 73% 46% 41% 73% 36% 43% 77% 13% 70% 47% 61% 51% 60% 14% 55% 59% 55% 55% 48% 50% 37% 40% 67% 67% 53% 49% 45% 39% 63% 45% 21% 39% 37% 53% 60% 47% 47% 49% 50% Asset allocation Equities Property 15% 7% 36% 12% 25% 33% 36% 17% 9% 35% 21% 11% 31% 4% 51% 8% 44% 4% 15% 2% 35% 12% 37% 8% 16% 4% 54% 10% 25% 25% 7% 6% 42% 4% 14% 4% 32% 4% 33% 2% 17% 11% 19% 3% 46% 5% 32% 25% 36% 42% 36% 41% 20% 37% 13% 32% 47% 22% 18% 31% 19% 22% 50% 53% 42% 35% 27% 28% 37% 32% 32% 1% 4% 9% 6% 3% 6% 3% 6% Other 12% 32% 20% 9% 19% 30% 19% 1% 3% 10% 7% 14% 7% 1% 7% 11% 41% 13% 17% 4% 21% 18% 34% 11% 13% -2% 13% 4% 40% 17% 20% 1% 23% 20% 14% 16% 15% 11% 8% 21% 3% 13% 18% 11% 13% 13%

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes Yes

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

6% 17% 16% 2% 18% 18%

9% 7% 5% 6% 6%

Source: Datastream, Worldscope, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

14

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTBRIC: EM exposure basket


Key criteria: Companies with high sales exposure to emerging markets. Sector exposure: Oil & gas 13%, industrial goods & services 13%, banks 11%, basic resources 11%.
Exhibit 15: Constituents of GSSTBRIC
BRIC EXPOSURE BASKET (GSSTBRIC)
Company name Automobiles & Parts Volkswagen (Pref) Pirelli Banks Standard Chartered HSBC Grupo Santander BBVA Erste Bank Basic Resources Vedanta Resources BHP Billiton Plc Anglo American plc Kazakhmys Antofagasta plc Chemicals Lanxess AG Syngenta Clariant Construction & Materials FLSmidth & Co. A/S Holcim Lafarge Food & Beverage SABMiller Unilever (plc) Danone Industrial Goods & Services Wartsila (B) Weir Group Atlas Copco ABB Ltd Alfa Laval Outotec Median Basket weights (%) 4.4% 2.2% 2.2% 11.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 11.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 6.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 6.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 6.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 13.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% Current market cap (Bn) 70.1 4.3 44.3 140.3 57.7 34.1 8.0 3.8 132.5 29.2 4.8 16.0 5.4 27.5 2.4 2.5 17.4 13.2 52.3 80.2 29.3 6.2 4.8 23.6 32.6 6.0 1.7 EM Sales exposure 45% 40% 73% 50% 50% 51% 48% 73% 45% 42% 40% 45% 47% 47% 46% 74% 60% 40% 53% 52% 50% 60% 54% 51% 52% 50% 84% 50% P/E 2013E 6.7 8.0 10.5 9.1 7.4 6.4 7.0 4.2 10.8 11.1 6.2 12.6 8.8 13.6 11.4 8.6 15.9 13.0 15.8 15.3 14.9 16.8 11.6 13.7 11.2 12.3 11.7 11.7 P/B 2013E 0.9 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 2.2 0.9 0.6 2.5 2.5 3.5 0.9 1.7 1.1 0.8 2.4 4.4 2.4 3.0 2.5 4.5 2.2 2.7 3.0 1.7 Company name Oil & Gas ENI SBM Offshore Petroleum Geo Services ASA Repsol YPF Petrofac Technip Personal & Household Goods British American Tobacco Richemont Henkel (pref) The Swatch Group (Bearer share) Retail Casino Technology Nokia ASML Holding NV STMicroelectronics Ericsson Telecommunication Telenor Portugal Telecom Millicom International Cellular SA Basket weights (%) 13.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 8.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 8.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 6.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% Current EM Sales market exposure cap (Bn) 63.6 1.8 3.0 18.7 6.7 9.2 75.9 29.2 24.2 17.3 7.5 8.0 18.1 4.1 22.2 25.4 3.3 7.1 46% 68% 46% 40% 81% 50% 48% 46% 44% 44% 44% 57% 57% 52% 50% 55% 47% 100% P/E 2013E 7.7 5.1 10.5 10.3 12.1 12.6 13.6 12.4 15.4 12.3 10.8 P/B 2013E 0.9 1.3 1.7 0.7 4.2 2.0 7.2 2.5 1.0 2.1 1.4 1.0 4.3 0.8 1.3 2.2 1.7 4.3

17.5 39.0 13.0 10.7 12.0 14.3

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Quantum database.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

15

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTDM50: Global EM exposure basket (DM Nifty 50)


Key criteria: Companies in developed markets with high sales exposure to emerging markets. The estimates in Exhibit 16 are based
on consensus forecasts. Exhibit 16: Constituents of GSSTDM50
DM NIFTY 50 (GSSTDM50) P/E (x) Company name Country Weight Current market cap ($bn) 2012E 2013E EPS Growth (%) 2012E 2013E 2012E P/B (x) 2013E Dividend Yield (%) 2012E 2013E Return on Equity (%) 2012E 2013E

Automobiles&Parts SuzukiMotorCorp. HyundaiMotorCo.Ltd. Pirelli&C.S.p.A. Banks HSBCHoldingsPLC StandardCharteredPLC BancoSantanderS.A. BasicResources BHPBillitonPLC VedantaResourcesPLC FortescueMetalsGroupLtd. POSCO AngloAmericanPLC OZMineralsLtd. IlukaResourcesLimited Chemicals AveryDennisonCorp. MosaicCo. Construction&Materials FLSmidth&Co.A/S HolcimLtd. HealthCare PfizerInc. MylanInc. WatersCorp. IndustrialGoods&Services EmersonElectricCo. AtlasCopco DaikinIndustriesLtd. HitachiConstructionMachineryCo.Ltd. SumitomoRubber KomatsuLtd. ABBLtd. Oil&Gas SchlumbergerLtd. DiamondOffshoreDrillingInc. Personal&HouseholdGoods PhilipMorrisInternationalInc. BritishAmericanTobaccoPLC ShiseidoCo.Ltd. UnicharmCorp. LGElectronicsInc. SwatchGroupAG CompagnieFinanciereRichemontS.A. ColgatePalmoliveCo. MeadJohnsonNutrition Food&Beverage UnileverN.V. SABMillerPLC DanoneS.A. Technology TexasInstrumentsIncorporated QUALCOMMInc. EricssonLMShsB SamsungElectronicsCo.Ltd. Telecommunications Telenor Travel&Leisure Yum!BrandsInc. WynnResortsLtd. WhirlpoolCorp. Utilities AESCorp. Median

Japan Korea Italy UnitedKingdom UnitedKingdom Spain UnitedKingdom UnitedKingdom Australia Korea UnitedKingdom Australia Australia UnitedStates UnitedStates Denmark Switzerland UnitedStates UnitedStates UnitedStates UnitedStates Sweden Japan Japan Japan Japan Switzerland UnitedStates UnitedStates UnitedStates UnitedKingdom Japan Japan Korea Switzerland Switzerland UnitedStates UnitedStates Netherlands UnitedKingdom France UnitedStates UnitedStates Sweden Korea Norway UnitedStates UnitedStates UnitedStates UnitedStates

4.3% 1.1% 2.4% 0.9% 8.7% 3.1% 2.4% 3.3% 10.3% 2.8% 0.7% 1.7% 1.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.9% 3.2% 0.8% 2.4% 2.5% 0.9% 1.6% 6.5% 3.4% 1.9% 1.3% 12.2% 2.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 2.4% 2.5% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8% 17.8% 3.3% 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 2.7% 1.9% 7.2% 2.7% 2.0% 2.5% 11.9% 3.0% 3.5% 2.2% 3.2% 1.3% 1.3% 7.3% 2.8% 2.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5%

12.4 43.3 5.3 175.9 55.2 72.1 65.5 4.6 12.7 26.2 41.3 2.4 3.8 3.3 15.3 3.1 22.0 178.0 10.5 7.2 36.8 28.7 8.0 3.6 2.9 21.0 42.4 90.8 9.0 142.7 98.4 5.4 10.8 11.6 22.9 35.5 49.1 13.3 62.1 67.6 40.7 33.1 105.0 29.1 198.1 30.8 32.5 10.9 7.5 7.4 24.5

14.3 6.5 9.3 10.6 10.6 14.9 10.6 10.0 9.6 10.5 13.5 14.5 8.3 16.4 11.1 11.0 18.9 11.1 10.0 16.8 14.6 14.2 13.4 9.9 6.5 10.4 13.8 16.2 13.7 16.4 15.4 22.9 24.5 17.5 15.2 16.7 19.4 21.6 18.0 18.3 16.5 18.2 16.0 16.4 8.8 13.6 22.0 19.8 13.8 8.2 14.3

12.2 6.1 7.9 9.3 9.7 8.4 10.7 6.4 8.2 8.7 10.3 15.6 6.0 13.7 10.2 10.0 14.5 10.5 9.3 15.4 13.6 14.3 11.3 10.0 5.9 9.8 12.1 13.8 12.4 14.7 14.2 19.5 21.1 10.3 13.8 14.7 17.6 19.5 16.3 16.3 15.3 16.9 14.0 12.3 7.7 11.2 19.2 17.7 10.9 7.8 12.2

33.3 89.2 27.6 0.5 11.2 52.1 22.0 0.1 14.6 24.4 54.6 48.4 19.3 6.7 5.1 16.9 56.7 6.1 26.5 2.5 5.0 7.9 31.2 41.7 23.3 3.5 13.1 15.6 31.5 6.8 6.4 32.4 10.2 252.6 16.4 25.6 6.4 9.0 12.1 11.9 4.5 26.7 15.8 23.9 71.8 28.5 13.9 2.2 4.2 17.3 6.6

17.1 6.5 18.1 13.3 8.9 77.0 1.3 55.9 18.2 20.8 31.4 7.1 38.8 19.1 8.6 10.0 30.3 6.5 7.8 9.6 7.1 0.4 18.3 1.0 11.2 6.1 13.5 17.0 11.0 11.5 9.1 17.3 16.2 69.7 9.7 13.4 10.3 10.9 10.1 12.5 7.9 8.0 13.9 33.0 13.7 20.5 14.7 12.3 27.0 4.9 12.4

1.0 1.4 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.7 NA 1.0 2.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.2 2.2 2.6 5.2 NA 5.4 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.5 2.6 2.0 NM 7.6 1.5 3.3 1.0 2.5 3.1 19.5 85.3 5.0 NA 2.3 3.0 3.0 1.3 1.8 2.2 14.2 NM 1.7 1.1 1.8

0.9 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.2 0.7 2.1 0.9 2.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.1 2.1 2.4 4.4 3.1 4.5 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.4 2.2 2.3 1.9 NM 7.2 1.4 3.0 0.9 2.2 2.6 20.7 25.5 4.4 2.4 2.2 2.9 2.7 1.2 1.5 2.1 12.1 22.0 1.5 1.0 1.9

0.9 0.8 4.1 4.6 3.7 10.7 3.7 3.3 2.0 3.0 2.6 2.6 5.8 3.3 1.4 2.9 1.7 3.6 0.0 0.0 3.2 3.4 1.7 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.8 1.6 5.4 3.8 4.2 4.7 0.8 0.3 1.6 1.1 2.3 1.8 3.3 2.3 2.9 2.4 1.5 4.5 0.5 4.8 1.7 8.8 2.1 0.4 2.7

1.0 0.9 4.9 5.0 4.0 10.7 3.9 3.4 2.0 3.1 2.7 2.6 8.1 3.3 1.9 3.5 2.3 3.8 0.0 0.0 3.3 3.6 1.7 3.0 2.9 2.8 4.1 1.6 5.4 4.2 4.6 4.7 0.9 0.3 1.8 1.3 2.6 2.0 3.6 2.6 3.1 2.8 1.7 4.8 0.5 5.7 1.9 3.7 2.1 1.5 2.9

6.9 23.1 18.5 10.2 12.3 4.5 23.9 9.4 35.9 6.8 7.0 6.0 25.8 12.7 15.8 16.3 6.3 19.8 30.3 33.1 23.9 42.5 9.1 8.2 16.4 15.1 17.9 17.0 14.9 NM 48.3 6.4 14.2 5.7 17.1 19.7 106.3 NA 29.9 14.5 14.4 16.4 20.6 8.9 21.1 13.2 71.8 46.8 9.4 14.1 16.3

7.5 20.8 19.6 11.0 12.9 8.1 19.9 14.1 28.7 7.7 8.6 5.4 28.3 12.9 15.2 16.9 8.0 20.6 27.2 30.8 24.1 34.4 10.1 7.6 15.7 14.8 18.4 18.0 15.4 NM 50.9 7.5 15.0 8.7 16.5 18.6 113.9 NA 28.3 14.6 14.4 16.3 18.2 9.8 20.8 19.3 69.1 62.3 15.0 12.9 16.0

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, FactSet, I/B/E/S.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

16

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTEM50: EM Nifty 50
Key criteria: Emerging market companies with attractive valuation and potential to grow as global leaders in their sector. The estimates in Exhibit 17 are based on consensus forecasts.
Exhibit 17: Constituents of GSSTEM50
EM NIFTY 50 (GSSTEM50) P/E (x) Company name Country Weight Current market cap ($bn) 2012E 2013E EPS Growth (%) 2012E 2013E P/B (x) 2012E 2013E Dividend Yield (%) 2012E 2013E Return on Equity (%) 2012E 2013E

Automobiles&Parts HeroMotoCorpLtd. India Banks ItauUnibancoHoldingS/AADS Brazil StateBankofIndia India ChinaConstructionBankCorp. ChinaOffshore Industrial&CommercialBankofChinaLtd. ChinaOffshore SberbankofRussiaOJSC Russia BasicResources ValeS.A.ADS Brazil Evraz Russia SterliteIndustries(India)Ltd. India JSWSteelLtd. India JiangxiCopperCo.Ltd. ChinaOffshore AngangSteelCo.Ltd. ChinaOffshore ChinaShenhuaEnergyCo.Ltd. ChinaOffshore CompanhiaSiderurgicaNacionalADS Brazil FibriaCeluloseS.A.ADS Brazil Construction&Materials Larsen&ToubroLtd. India JaiprakashAssociatesLtd. India ChinaNationalBuildingMaterialCo.Ltd. ChinaOffshore FinancialServices HousingDevelopmentFinanceCorp.Ltd. India CieloS/A Brazil Food&Beverage ChinaMengniuDairyCo.Ltd. ChinaOffshore WantWantChinaHoldingsLtd. ChinaOffshore HealthCare MindrayMedicalInternationalLtd.ADS ChinaOffshore IndustrialGoods&Services ChinaShippingDevelopmentCo.Ltd. ChinaOffshore Insurance ChinaLifeInsuranceCo.Ltd.(China) ChinaOffshore Oil&Gas GazpromOAOADS Russia NovatekJtStkCoSponGdrRegS Russia RelianceIndustriesLtd. India CairnIndiaLtd. India CNOOCLtd. ChinaOffshore ChinaHighSpeedTransmissionEquipmentGroupCChinaOffshore PetrobrasPetroleoBrasileiro Brazil Personal&HouseholdGoods ITCLtd. India BelleInternationalHoldingsLtd. ChinaOffshore RealEstate UnitechLtd. India ChinaOverseasLand&InvestmentLtd. ChinaOffshore PDGRealtyS/AEmpreendimentoseParticipacoes Brazil Retail X5RetailGroupN.V. Russia MagnitGdr Russia ChinaDongxiangGroupCo.Ltd. ChinaOffshore LocalizaRentACarS/A Brazil TitanIndustries India Technology BaiduInc.ADS ChinaOffshore LenovoGroupLtd. ChinaOffshore TencentHoldingsLtd. ChinaOffshore Telecommunications VimpelComLtd.ADS Russia ChinaMobileLtd. ChinaOffshore MobileTeleSystemsADS Russia Utilities ChinaResourcesPowerHoldingsCo.Ltd. ChinaOffshore CPFLEnergiaS.A. Brazil Median

2.0% 2.0% 15.8% 3.2% 2.7% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4% 14.6% 3.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 0.6% 2.7% 1.8% 0.8% 6.3% 2.2% 1.5% 2.6% 4.5% 1.8% 2.7% 3.6% 1.6% 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 2.4% 2.4% 13.5% 2.9% 2.9% 2.0% 1.6% 2.8% 0.6% 0.6% 4.3% 2.2% 2.1% 5.2% 0.7% 2.7% 1.8% 7.4% 1.3% 2.1% 0.7% 1.7% 1.6% 8.5% 3.4% 2.3% 2.8% 7.4% 1.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 1.3% 1.4%

7.0 63.3 26.4 184.6 219.8 60.6 97.6 5.0 6.2 3.0 10.5 4.0 73.8 7.9 5.1 18.2 3.5 3.8 22.3 17.3 5.1 18.4 NA 2.1 82.0 109.1 30.6 46.6 11.5 91.9 0.5 10.2 41.4 15.3 1.3 21.9 2.2 NA 13.5 0.7 3.5 4.7 NA 9.3 63.7 NA 223.4 15.0 9.8 10.5 12.5

16.3 9.1 8.3 6.1 6.2 5.5 8.4 35.8 6.1 10.1 10.2 NM 10.8 NM NM 19.9 18.9 8.6 25.8 15.2 21.9 33.9 19.8 NM 38.5 2.8 13.1 12.3 6.3 8.8 8.6 NA 31.9 20.1 18.9 10.9 NM 17.6 24.0 20.7 29.1 36.4 21.9 16.3 30.5 10.2 11.1 9.6 11.1 14.7 13.9

15.3 8.3 7.1 6.0 6.1 5.3 7.9 13.6 5.3 8.3 9.7 99.6 10.2 19.8 318.6 17.9 15.2 6.7 22.0 14.0 17.0 27.8 16.9 26.2 16.8 2.8 10.4 12.0 6.3 8.8 7.7 NA 26.9 17.3 13.9 9.5 9.2 13.4 20.5 16.9 18.6 29.5 17.2 13.4 24.0 9.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 15.5 13.4

2.0 7.6 18.0 11.8 10.8 7.0 50.7 78.1 7.4 16.3 16.8 38.1 3.1 111.0 41.2 8.6 1.8 34.5 15.6 2.7 8.7 28.1 17.3 129.7 25.7 15.5 21.3 4.1 32.4 7.0 38.2 NA 19.1 11.9 10.0 18.6 135.4 10.8 58.3 122.2 17.1 26.6 57.0 33.3 28.7 72.1 0.8 37.3 52.4 4.1 7.4

7.0 9.7 16.4 1.6 2.4 3.3 7.0 163.8 13.4 20.9 4.5 109.2 5.6 296.8 105.5 10.9 24.9 28.2 17.6 8.7 28.9 22.0 17.3 248.3 129.8 1.8 26.6 3.2 0.3 0.1 11.6 NA 18.6 16.0 35.9 15.3 271.4 31.3 16.8 22.5 57.0 23.2 27.5 21.8 27.1 9.5 0.6 5.8 19.3 5.6 13.4

7.3 1.6 NA 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 NA 0.9 1.3 0.6 2.0 2.0 0.7 3.1 1.6 1.5 5.2 14.0 2.5 11.6 2.9 0.5 2.4 0.4 3.4 1.4 1.2 1.8 0.4 NA 11.0 4.2 NA 2.0 0.6 1.9 5.4 0.7 5.5 14.1 8.7 3.5 9.6 1.2 1.9 5.2 1.4 3.0 1.9

5.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.6 1.8 1.7 0.7 2.7 1.5 1.2 4.5 11.8 2.3 9.9 2.5 0.5 2.1 0.4 2.7 1.3 1.0 1.6 0.4 NA 9.6 3.6 0.5 1.7 0.5 1.7 4.5 0.7 4.5 10.7 5.8 3.0 6.9 1.1 1.8 3.6 1.3 3.0 1.6

2.6 3.2 1.8 5.6 5.6 3.0 6.5 2.5 NA 1.3 2.1 0.0 3.6 2.2 0.0 1.1 0.7 1.7 1.5 4.4 1.0 1.9 1.2 0.0 0.9 5.3 2.3 1.1 2.6 2.4 0.0 NA 1.8 1.5 NA 1.8 1.2 0.0 0.5 3.5 1.0 0.7 0.0 2.0 0.4 7.5 3.9 6.8 2.8 6.2 1.8

2.7 3.8 2.1 5.7 5.6 3.6 3.6 2.1 2.0 1.4 2.1 0.0 3.7 2.2 0.0 1.2 0.9 2.2 1.8 5.2 1.3 2.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 5.5 3.1 1.2 3.1 2.6 2.7 NA 2.2 1.8 0.4 2.1 2.3 0.0 0.5 3.7 1.3 0.9 0.0 2.5 0.5 7.5 3.9 8.3 3.3 6.2 2.2

51.4 18.6 16.5 21.8 22.3 23.9 13.2 5.0 11.7 9.7 13.5 NM 19.4 NM NM 16.8 8.4 17.7 22.4 117.1 12.2 37.8 16.1 0.1 9.3 14.9 26.4 11.6 19.7 22.7 4.4 NA 35.8 22.5 NA 20.2 5.7 11.5 24.9 3.7 19.4 43.8 50.5 23.1 36.5 11.6 18.4 45.2 13.1 20.7 18.6

42.5 18.6 17.0 19.3 20.0 20.7 13.6 6.3 11.7 10.8 12.9 1.0 17.8 13.6 0.0 16.4 10.1 18.0 21.9 90.8 13.9 39.6 16.3 1.8 13.2 13.2 26.7 11.1 17.2 19.8 5.0 NA 37.5 22.4 4.1 19.9 9.0 13.4 22.5 4.0 25.3 40.6 40.6 24.1 33.4 12.7 16.8 45.6 14.1 18.7 17.0

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, FactSet, I/B/E/S.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

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November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTCHNA: China exposure basket


Key criteria: Companies with high sales exposure to China. Sector exposure: Industrial goods & services 37%, basic resources 17%, personal & household goods 14%.
Exhibit 18: Constituents of GSSTCHNA
CHINA EXPOSURE BASKET (GSSTCHNA)
Company name Automobiles & Parts Volkswagen (Pref) Banks HSBC Standard Chartered Basic Resources Kazakhmys Rio Tinto plc Vedanta Resources BHP Billiton Plc Antofagasta plc Anglo American plc Chemicals Johnson Matthey DSM Food & Beverages Remy Cointreau Industrial Goods & Services Intertek Group Kuehne & Nagel SGS KONE Corporation ABB Ltd A.P. Moeller-Maersk MTU Aero Engines Alfa Laval Andritz AG Hexagon AB Vallourec Spectris Georg Fischer Median Basket weights (%) 2.9% 2.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 17.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 37.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% Current market cap (Bn) China Sales exposure P/E 2013E P/B 2013E Insurance 70.1 140.3 44.3 4.8 75.6 3.8 132.5 16.0 29.2 5.9 6.5 3.9 5.7 11.2 12.7 14.4 32.6 23.8 3.2 6.0 5.0 6.6 3.7 2.6 1.1 8.0 27.5% 23.3% 22.4% 31.0% 30.0% 23.0% 20.0% 19.2% 15.4% 15.0% 16.0% 26.0% 22.1% 20.0% 20.0% 16.4% 14.0% 13.9% 13.0% 12.7% 12.0% 14.0% 12.0% 13.0% 12.0% 20% 6.7 9.1 10.5 6.2 9.3 4.2 10.8 12.6 11.1 13.8 11.4 18.7 18.4 20.0 20.8 19.7 11.2 5.8 NA 12.3 14.8 15.2 11.2 11.3 9.8 12.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.6 1.5 0.8 2.2 2.5 0.9 2.6 1.0 3.3 5.6 5.0 6.9 4.4 2.2 0.7 NA 2.7 4.0 2.2 0.7 2.4 1.0 2.2 Company name Basket weights (%) 2.9% 2.9% 14.3% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 11.4% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% Current market cap (Bn) 4.9 29.2 23.2 63.1 6.8 17.3 4.1 6.3 8.0 1.4 China Sales exposure P/E 2013E P/B 2013E

AgeasSA/NV
Personal & Household Goods Richemont Hermes International LVMH Moet-Hennessy Louis Vuitton Burberry The Swatch Group (Bearer share) Technology STMicroelectronics Infineon Nokia ASM International NV

22.4% 23.6% 28.5% 25.0% 20.4% 41.1% 26.0% 15.0% 15.7% 30.9%

75.7 12.4 28.4 14.7 16.4 12.3 NA 22.5 NA 16.4

4.9 2.5 8.4 2.6 4.7 2.1 0.8 1.7 1.0 2.0

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Quantum database.

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November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTAMER: US exposure basket


Key criteria: Companies with high sales exposure to the US. To avoid large sector bias, we cap maximum sector weight at 12%. Sector exposure: Healthcare 12%, industrial goods & services 12%, media 11%.
Exhibit 19: Constituents of GSSTAMER
US EXPOSURE (GSSTAMER) Company name Automobiles & Parts Basket weights 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 5.2% 2.6% 2.6% 5.2% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 5.2% 2.6% 2.6% 12.0% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 12.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% US Exposure 44% 36% 33% 35% 43% 34% 40% 52% 40% 40% 42% 43% 65% 37% 34% 38% 67% 42% 41% 48% 56% 53% 50% 39% 41% 41% Current Market Cap (Bn) 4.7 1.9 5.0 2.1 10.5 2.6 2.6 4.4 103.7 4.5 50.5 15.0 16.2 88.8 6.6 131.0 12.2 7.2 12.9 4.2 3.1 13.1 3.7 4.9 9.4 7.2 P/E 2013E P/B 2013E 5.9 20.1 12.4 11.3 15.6 7.9 8.7 12.5 14.7 12.5 7.4 22.8 16.6 11.7 21.2 11.6 11.4 14.1 0.4 0.5 2.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.6 Company name Insurance Aegon N.V. Zurich Financial Services Media Pearson Reed Elsevier (NL) Wolters Kluwer Publicis Oil & Gas John Wood Group Plc TGS Nopec Personal & Household Goods Luxottica (Italy) Husqvarna AB Socit BIC Retail Delhaize Ahold Technology Sage Group ARM Holdings plc Neopost Travel & Leisure InterContinental Hotels Group PLC Compass Group Sodexo Utilities National Grid Basket weights 5.2% 2.6% 2.6% 10.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 5.2% 2.6% 2.6% 7.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 5.2% 2.6% 2.6% 7.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 7.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% US Exposure 36% 35% 63% 49% 48% 46% 37% 40% 60% 40% 42% 74% 60% 41% 40% 36% 40% 43% 40% 61% Current Market Cap (Bn) 8.3 28.1 12.4 7.9 4.3 8.7 3.8 2.6 13.7 2.7 4.6 2.9 10.9 5.3 12.2 1.4 5.2 16.5 9.1 31.6 P/E 2013E P/B 2013E 6.1 7.7 14.3 10.8 9.4 11.2 12.0 11.0 19.9 13.2 13.3 6.5 8.6 12.9 46.6 7.9 14.8 14.4 14.9 12.3 1.6 4.1 2.4 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.1 1.7 2.5 0.5 1.5 2.9 7.5 1.8 147.4 3.8 2.8 2.5

FiatSpA
Basic Resources

SSAB
Chemicals Brenntag AG Lonza Group Construction & Materials CRH Hochtief AG Financial Services ICAP plc Food & Beverage Tate & Lyle Anheuser-Busch InBev Health Care Actelion AstraZeneca Essilor Fresenius Medical Care GlaxoSmithKline Novozymes Roche Shire Smith & Nephew Industrial Goods & Services BAE Systems Bunzl Cobham Experian Meggitt Rexam Wolseley Median

2.8 3.1 2.3 3.5 2.1 10.7 4.8 6.9 2.8 2.2

13.5 19.2 11.4 13.3 12.4

3.2 5.0 1.4 2.3 2.4

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Quantum database.

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November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTUKDE: UK domestic exposure basket


Key criteria: UK companies with high sales exposure to the UK. Sector exposure: Utilities 20%, retail 17%, industrial goods & services 13%, insurance 10%.
Exhibit 20: Constituents of GSSTUKDE
UK DOMESTIC EXPOSURE (GSSTUKDE)
Company name Banks Basket weights 3.3% Current market cap (GBP Bn) 2012E P/E 2012E P/B UK Sales Exposure 97% 97% 100% 87% 66% 96% 92% 75% 100% 88% 100% 100% 98% 100% 96% 67% 100% 100% 98% 90% 67% 78% 100% 92% 100% 74% 100% 99% 99% 98% 98%

LloydsBankingGroupPlc
Industrial Goods & Services

3.3%
13.3%

30.5 4.8 2.7 3.6 2.8 2.9 8.2 7.0 13.3 3.5 1.9 2.4 2.0 6.3 4.8 3.4 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.2 26.0 17.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 16.8 2.5 3.7 13.5 4.6
4.7

13.8 11.7 14.7 13.7 12.2 9.5 17.1 14.0 16.1 16.8 15.2 14.4 23.0 18.1 23.1 11.1 9.7 13.4 11.0 9.3 8.6 16.9 12.0 11.6 12.9 15.3 14.8 12.4 14.0
13.8

0.7 5.1 1.2 3.6 2.4 18.2 3.4 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 19.5 2.4 1.4 7.3 3.0 2.4 1.3 2.8 2.8 4.0 2.4 2.5
2.4

CapitaGroup TravisPerkins BabcockInternational Serco


Insurance

3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%


10.0%

AdmiralGroupPlc Legal&GeneralGroup StandardLifePlc


Media

3.3% 3.3% 3.3%


6.7%

BritishSkyBroadcasting ITVplc
Personal & Household Goods

3.3% 3.3%
10.0%

BarrattDevelopments Persimmon TaylorWimpey


Real Estate

3.3% 3.3% 3.3%


10.0%

LandSecurities BritishLand Hammerson


Retail

3.3% 3.3% 3.3%


16.7%

JSainsbury Morrison(Wm) Next Marks&Spencer Tesco


Telecommunications

3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%


3.3%

BTGroup
Travel & Leisure

3.3%
6.7%

Whitbread WilliamHill
Utilities

3.3% 3.3%
20.0%

DraxGroupPlc Centrica Pennon SevernTrent ScottishandSouthernEnergy UnitedUtilities


Median

3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Quantum database.

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November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTUKIE: UK International exposure basket


Key criteria: UK companies with high sales exposure outside the UK. Sector exposure: Basic resources 17%, industrial goods & services 17%.
Exhibit 21: Constituents of GSSTUKIE
UK INTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE (GSSTUKIE)
Company name Automobiles & Parts Basket weights 3.3% Current market cap (GBP Bn) 2012E P/E 2012E P/B International Exposure 94% 91% 100% 98% 98% 98% 88% 97% 100% 95% 92% 96% 96% 95% 92% 100% 96% 93% 93% 90% 90% 89% 92% 99% 93% 91% 89% 99% 95% 92% 94.1%

GKN
Banks

3.3%
3.3%

3.5 35.8 13.0 3.2 107.6 61.8 23.4 1.6 41.9 65.9 3.5 40.3 69.2 9.7 5.7 5.8 3.9 3.7 3.1 4.6 0.0 7.4 2.7 60.1 5.5 27.5 24.2 9.6 2.5 83.5
8.5

10.0 11.4 15.8 9.9 11.7 10.9 14.0 30.1 17.9 17.1 13.2 7.3 12.1 12.5 11.3 21.4 12.7 11.7 11.9 22.0 10.8 12.3 17.8 14.9 19.0 15.2 11.8 58.9 15.7 11.2
12.6

2.1 1.3 3.0 1.0 2.5 1.7 1.0 1.2 2.6 5.1 2.5 9.1 3.6 2.4

StandardChartered
Basic Resources

3.3%
16.7%

Antofagastaplc VedantaResources BHPBillitonPlc RioTintoplc AngloAmericanplc


Financial Services

3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%


3.3%

ManGroup
Food & Beverage

3.3%
10.0%

SABMiller Unilever(plc) Tate&Lyle


Health Care

3.3% 3.3% 3.3%


13.3%

AstraZeneca GlaxoSmithKline Shire Smith&Nephew


Industrial Goods & Services

3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%


16.7%

Aggreko Rexam WeirGroup IMIplc IntertekGroup


Media

3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%


6.7%

1.5 2.8 4.5 7.0 1.4 4.9

WPPGroupplc ReedElsevier(UK) AegisGroupPLC


Personal & Household Goods

3.3% 3.3% 3.3%


10.0%

BritishAmericanTobacco Burberry ReckittBenckiser ImperialTobacco


Technology

3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%


3.3%

7.3 5.6 4.2 3.0 8.1 3.8 1.1


2.8

ARMHoldingsplc
Telecommunications

3.3%
6.7%

InmarsatPlc Vodafone
Median

3.3% 3.3%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Quantum database.

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November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTDOME: Euro area domestic exposure basket


Key criteria: Companies with high sales exposure to Europe ex-UK. Sector exposure: Media 16%, real estate 16%, utilities 14%, telecommunications 12%.
Exhibit 22: Constituents of GSSTDOME
EuropeDomesticExposure(GSSTDOME) Companyname Banks BancoPopolare IntesaSanpaolo UBIBanca BancoComercialPortugues Construction&Materials Eiffage AccionaSA FinancialServices AzimutHolding Healthcare Almirall IndustrialGoods&Services AeroportsdeParis FraportAG ZardoyaOtis Abertis SmurfitKappaGroup Insurance CNPAssurances DeltaLloyd Sampo Mediolanum AssicurazioniGenerali Media AxelSpringerAG KabelDeutschlandAG M6MetropoleTelevision ProSiebenSat.1 Telenet TF1 ZonMultimedia Mediaset MediasetEspana Oil&Gas Saras Galp ERG Median Country Basket Weights 6.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 3.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 8.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 8.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 5.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% Marketcap (EURBn) 2.0 19.9 2.5 1.4 2.4 2.6 1.4 1.1 5.9 4.0 3.7 8.7 1.8 6.2 2.0 13.4 2.6 19.1 3.2 4.9 1.3 4.6 4.0 1.4 0.8 1.5 1.7 0.8 10.0 0.8 3.2 SalesExposureto EuropeexUK 100% 100% 100% 79% 96% 73% 100% 82% 100% 100% 97% 86% 73% 95% 100% 98% 100% 85% 95% 100% 100% 96% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% P/E2013E P/B2013E DivY 2013E 0.6% 4.6% 2.0% 0.0% 5.6% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.6% 2.8% 4.9% 0.0% 2.7% 7.8% 9.1% 5.0% 4.3% 4.2% 5.5% 0.0% 8.7% 8.1% 0.0% 8.2% 7.0% 1.4% 3.7% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 4.6% Companyname RealEstate Cofinimmo Corio Eurocommercial FonciredesRgions Gecina Icade UnibailRodamco DeutscheWohnenAG GSWImmobilien Retail Colruyt DouglasHoldingAG Technology Iliad UnitedInternet Telecommunications Belgacom ElisaCorporation Mobistar RoyalKPNNV Ziggo TelecomItalia Jazztel Utilities Verbund EnelSpA A2aSPA SnamReteGasSpA Terna Enagas EnergiasdePortugal RedElectricadeEspana Country Basket Weights 15.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 3.4% 1.7% 1.7% 3.4% 1.7% 1.7% 12.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 13.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% Marketcap (EURBn) 1.3 3.1 1.1 3.3 5.2 3.5 15.6 1.4 1.5 5.6 1.5 6.7 2.9 7.2 2.7 1.2 6.8 5.0 12.9 1.2 6.0 26.1 1.2 12.0 5.7 3.5 7.2 4.8 SalesExposureto EuropeexUK 100% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 100% 100% 100% 93% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 78% 100% 100% 76% 99% 100% 100% 100% 83% 98% P/E 2013E 11.9 11.9 14.6 12.2 17.6 15.3 16.0 17.2 18.3 14.4 19.7 25.9 14.9 10.0 11.8 6.8 6.7 16.4 5.7 11.3 16.9 8.6 7.9 11.5 12.3 8.3 7.2 8.7 P/B 2013E 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.1 NA 2.9 1.6 3.6 NA 2.4 3.0 3.4 1.8 3.5 0.5 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.4 1.9 2.0 1.6 0.8 2.1 DivY 2013E 7.5% 8.5% 6.9% 6.9% 5.1% 5.7% 5.6% 2.4% 3.3% 3.0% 2.6% 0.3% 1.2% 8.9% 8.4% 14.0% 0.0% 4.8% 6.2% 0.0% 3.2% 5.2% 5.1% 7.5% 6.7% 8.4% 9.4% 7.5%

Italy Italy Italy Portugal France Spain Italy Spain France Germany Spain Spain Ireland France Netherlands Finland Italy Italy Germany Germany France Germany Belgium France Portugal Italy Spain Italy Portugal Italy

16.9 8.7 12.3 NA 9.1 31.3 11.2 13.2 15.6 15.8 20.1 0.0 6.7 5.9 4.8 10.2 11.6 9.3 11.5 12.8 10.3 8.8 22.3 8.5 21.8 22.1 23.7 17.4 21.4 NA 12.1

0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.5 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.3 15.6 0.0 0.8 NA 0.6 NA 1.9 NA 1.6 NA 1.5 1.3 NA 0.9 3.9 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.5 NA 1.1

Belgium Netherlands Netherlands France France France France Germany Germany Belgium Germany France Germany Belgium Finland Belgium Netherlands Netherlands Italy Spain Austria Italy Italy Italy Italy Spain Portugal Spain

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, FactSet, I/B/E/S.

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Europe

GSSTCEMU: Core Euro area domestic exposure basket


Key criteria: Companies from core Euro area countries with high sales exposure to Europe ex-UK. Sector exposure: Real estate 23%, media 19%, telecommunications 16%.
Exhibit 23: Constituents of GSSTCEMU
EUROPECORE(GSSTCEMU) Companyname Construction&Materials Eiffage IndustrialGoods&Services AeroportsdeParis FraportAG Insurance CNPAssurances DeltaLloyd Sampo Media AxelSpringerAG KabelDeutschlandAG M6MetropoleTelevision ProSiebenSat.1 Telenet TF1 RealEstate Cofinimmo Corio Eurocommercial FonciredesRgions Gecina Icade UnibailRodamco DeutscheWohnenAG GSWImmobilien Retail Colruyt DouglasHoldingAG Technology Iliad UnitedInternet Telecommunications Belgacom ElisaCorporation Mobistar RoyalKPNNV Ziggo Utilities Verbund Median Country BasketWeigths 3.2% 3.2% 6.5% 3.2% 3.2% 9.7% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 19.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 29.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 6.5% 3.2% 3.2% 6.5% 3.2% 3.2% 16.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% SalesExposureto EuropeexUK 96% 100% 100% 95% 100% 98% 95% 100% 100% 96% 100% 100% 100% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 100% 100% 100% 93% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Marketcap (EURBn) 2.4 5.9 4.0 6.2 2.0 13.4 3.2 4.9 1.3 4.6 4.0 1.4 1.3 3.1 1.1 3.3 5.2 3.5 15.6 1.4 1.5 5.0 1.5 6.7 2.9 7.2 2.7 1.2 6.8 5.0 6.0 3.5 P/E2013E P/B2013E DivY 2012E 5.6% 3.6% 2.8% 7.8% 9.1% 5.0% 5.5% 0.0% 8.7% 8.1% 0.0% 8.2% 7.5% 8.5% 6.9% 6.9% 5.1% 5.7% 5.6% 2.4% 3.3% 4.8% 2.6% 0.3% 1.2% 8.9% 8.4% 14.0% 0.0% 4.8% 3.2% 5.5%

France France Germany France Netherlands Finland Germany Germany France Germany Belgium France Belgium Netherlands Netherlands France France France France Germany Germany Netherlands Germany France Germany Belgium Finland Belgium Netherlands Netherlands Austria

9.1 15.6 15.8 5.9 4.8 10.2 11.5 12.8 10.3 8.8 22.3 8.5 11.9 11.9 14.6 12.2 17.6 15.3 16.0 17.2 18.3 16.4 19.7 25.9 14.9 10.0 11.8 6.8 6.7 16.4 16.9 12.8

0.9 1.5 1.3

0.6

1.6 1.5 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.1

3.5 1.6 3.6

2.4 3.0 3.4 1.8 3.5 1.3 1.3

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, FactSet, I/B/E/S.

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Europe

GSSTPEMU: Periphery Euro area domestic basket


Key criteria: Companies from periphery Euro area with high sales exposure to Europe ex-UK. Sector exposure: Utilities 26%, banks 15%, oil & gas 11%.
Exhibit 24: Constituents of GSSTPEMU
EUROPEPERIPHERY(GSSTPEMU) Companyname Banks BancoPopolare IntesaSanpaolo UBIBanca BancoComercialPortugues Construction&Materials AccionaSA FinancialServices AzimutHolding IndustrialGoods&Services ZardoyaOtis Abertis SmurfitKappaGroup Insurance Mediolanum AssicurazioniGenerali Healthcare Almirall Media ZonMultimedia Mediaset MediasetEspana Oil&Gas Saras Galp ERG Telecommunications TelecomItalia Jazztel Utilities EnelSpA A2aSPA SnamReteGasSpA Terna Enagas EnergiasdePortugal RedElectricadeEspana Median Country BasketWeights 14.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 11.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 7.4% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 11.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 11.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 7.4% 3.7% 3.7% 25.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% MarketCap. SalesExposureto P/E2013E P/B2013E (EURBn) EuropeexUK 2.0 19.9 2.5 1.4 2.6 1.4 3.7 8.7 1.8 2.6 19.1 1.1 0.8 1.5 1.7 0.8 10.0 0.8 12.9 1.2 26.1 1.2 12.0 5.7 3.5 7.2 4.8 2.6 100% 100% 100% 79% 73% 100% 97% 86% 73% 100% 85% 82% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 78% 100% 76% 99% 100% 100% 100% 83% 98% 1.0 16.9 8.7 12.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 2.2 15.6 0.8 1.9 DivY 2013E 0.6% 4.6% 2.0% 0.0% 3.3% 2.7% 4.9% 2.7% 4.3% 4.2% 3.0% 7.0% 1.4% 3.7% 0.0% 2.4%

Italy Italy Italy Portugal Spain Italy Spain Spain Ireland Italy Italy Spain Portugal Italy Spain Italy Portugal Italy Italy Spain Italy Italy Italy Italy Spain Portugal Spain

31.3 11.2 20.1 6.7 11.6 9.3 13.2 21.8 22.1 23.7 17.4 21.4

1.0 3.9 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.5

5.7 11.3 8.6 7.9 11.5 12.3 8.3 7.2 8.7 11.5

0.5 2.7 0.6 0.4 1.9 2.0 1.6 0.8 2.1 0.9

6.2% 0.0% 5.2% 5.1% 7.5% 6.7% 8.4% 9.4% 7.5% 4.2%

Source: I/B/E/S, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

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November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSTPEXP: Periphery exporters basket


Key criteria: Companies from the Euro area periphery with high sales exposure outside Europe ex-UK. Sector exposure: Industrial goods & services 11%, banks 11%, utilities 11%.
Exhibit 25: Constituents of GSSTPEXP
Companyname Automobiles&Parts Pirelli FiatIndustrialSPA FiatSpA Banks BBVA GrupoSantander BancoEspiritoSanto Construction&Materials CRH TecnicasReunidas Food&Beverage DavideCampari Kerry IndustrialGoods&Services AmadeusITHoldingSA Finmeccanica Prysmian Oil&Gas Saipem RepsolYPF ENI Personal&HouseholdGoods Luxottica(Italy) Retail Inditex Tod's JeronimoMartins Telecommunications PortugalTelecom Telefonica Travel&Leisure InternationalConsolidatedAirlinesGroup Ryanair Utilities IberdrolaSA EndesaSA GasNatural Median Country Weights 11.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 11.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 7.4% 3.7% 3.7% 7.4% 3.7% 3.7% 11.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 11.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 11.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 7.4% 3.7% 3.7% 7.4% 3.7% 3.7% 11.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% MarketCap( ExposureOutside P/E2013E P/B2013E Bn) ofEuropeexUK 4.3 10.5 4.6 34.1 57.7 3.1 10.5 2.0 3.7 6.9 8.5 2.2 3.2 15.4 18.7 63.6 13.6 62.3 2.9 8.7 3.3 45.7 4.0 7.1 24.0 17.2 12.2 8.7 55% 68% 74% 68% 68% 35% 59% 82% 48% 65% 67% 57% 39% 80% 60% 83% 85% 42% 32% 59% 60% 54% 61% 30% 58% 31% 31% 59% 8.0 7.8 5.7 6.4 7.4 16.0 15.6 13.9 18.2 14.0 12.9 8.6 13.8 10.3 7.7 19.7 25.7 15.7 16.1 12.0 10.5 20.2 15.2 9.7 9.1 9.2 12.4 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 1.0 4.3 2.2 2.8 4.4 2.1 2.5 0.7 0.9 3.1 7.1 3.4 5.6 1.7 1.6 0.8 2.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.6

Italy Italy Italy Spain Spain Portugal Ireland Spain Italy Ireland Spain Italy Italy Italy Spain Italy Italy Spain Italy Portugal Portugal Spain Spain Ireland Spain Spain Spain

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Quantum database, I/B/E/S via FactSet.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

25

10

20

30

40

November 14, 2012

Our sub-sector baskets

-10

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Exhibit 26: Performance of Goldman Sachs sub-sector baskets (%)

GS SUB-SECTOR BASKETS SIX-MONTHS PERFORMANCE

Results presented should not and cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. Further details on performance calculations can be provided upon request.

Transportation - Airlines Banks - Domestic UK Banks - Domestic European Life Assurance Banks - Investment Banks UK Homebuilders Hospitality & Leisure IT Services Banks - Nordic Software Re-Insurance General Retail Telecoms - Alternative Carriers Electrical Equipment Paper & Forest Products Business Services - Defensive Biotechnology Banks - Global Retail Banks - Brokers & Asset Managers Oil Services Building materials Household & Personal Products Utilities - Hybrid Machinery Trucks Beverages Food Products Chemicals - Modern Real Estate Media - Business Publishers Pharmaceuticals Oil Refiners Gaming Transportation - Infrastructure Business Services - Staffing Chemicals - Fertilizers Media - Advertising Chemicals - Traditional Food Retail Medical Technology Integrated Oil & Gas Luxury Goods Business Services - Cyclical Oil Exploration & Production Defence Transportation - Road & Rail Construction Insurance Semiconductors Media - Broadcasters Basic Resources - Mining Utilities - Regulated Civil Aerospace Auto Components Automobiles Exchanges Telecoms - Wireline (Incumbents) Basic Resources - Steel Tobacco Communications Equipment Utilities - Unregulated Renewables Utilities - Water Telecoms - Wireless

Europe

26

November 14, 2012

Europe

Our sub-sector baskets aim to fill a gap in the market for sector products, providing focused yet liquid exposure to true sectors
The market for sector products in Europe is less developed than in the US. As a result, mainly broad, market cap-weighted sector indices are tradeable on-exchange with sufficient liquidity. Often these sector indices do not capture industry dynamics accurately, as they include unrelated sub-sectors and they tend to be concentrated on large caps owing to their market cap weighting. Sector indices are usually based on major European benchmark indices that are broken down according to a sector classification system (shown in Exhibit 27), mainly according to their principal business activity, i.e., the business making the largest revenue contribution. The two prevalent sector classification systems in Europe are ICB (Industry Classification Benchmark) and GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard). STOXX and FTSE follow ICB, while MSCI and S&P follow GICS. Exhibit 27: Benchmark indices are broken down into sectors based on ICB or GICS sector classification systems
Index provider STOXX FTSE MSCI S&P Level 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Classification 10 industries 19 supersectors 39 sectors 104 subsectors 10 sectors 24 industry groups 67 industries 147 sub-industries Index DJ EURO STOXX Stoxx Europe 600 FTSE 350 FTSE All Share MSCI Europe MSCI Pan-Euro S&P Europe 350 S&P Euro Market cap. (, bn) 3,252 6,727 2,278 2,306 6,548 5,407 6,085 2,887 Bloomberg SXXE SXXP NMX ASX MXEU MSPE SPE SPEU Region EMU Europe UK UK Europe Europe Europe EMU No of stocks 309 600 356 621 462 201 350 178

Source: STOXX, FTSE, MSCI, S&P, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exchange-listed sector indices in Europe are mainly at level 1 and 2, which are usually too broad and diverse to capture sub-sector specific or industry dynamics. For example, the STOXX Europe 600 Household & Personal Products sector (SXQP) consists of the household & personal products, luxury goods, tobacco and UK homebuilders sub-sectors as well as Philips. In our view, using revenue as the classification criteria can be too crude to capture industry dynamics properly and is difficult to apply to conglomerates. For sector-based investment strategies, for example, capturing intra-sector relative value or sector rotation, companies within a sector should be exposed to the same fundamental risk factors. Only then will the stocks have similar return characteristics and thus high co-movement (for example, correlation or co-integration) these are what we call true sectors. While level 3 and 4 sectors can be narrow enough, they often do not have a sufficient number of companies to achieve diversification. Our sub-sectors consist of companies that are driven by the same fundamental factors in order to create homogeneous peer groups. Fundamental factors can be at the macro level (such as consumption, GDP growth, exposure to BRICs or commodity prices) or at the micro level (such as corporate activity and LBOs, industry life cycle and restructuring).

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

GICS

ICB

27

November 14, 2012

Europe

Concentration on large-cap companies can create specific risk in market cap-weighted indices
The distribution of market capitalisations in equity markets is usually skewed towards large-cap companies. This can lead to undesired stock-specific risks in indices if they are market-cap weighted. This concentration in large-cap companies can make benchmarking problematic for long-only managers and cause problems for hedging market exposures effectively. As a result of a lower number of constituents, for sector indices the concentration in large-cap companies is often magnified (shown in Exhibit 28). This will reduce the degree of diversification further and can lead to stock-specific risks. As a result, it is difficult for investors seeking to gain or hedge sector exposure to do so via market capitalisation-weighted sector indices. Based on current weightings, the most concentrated STOXX sectors (STOXX Europe 600 (SXXP) covering Pan-Europe and EURO STOXX (SXXE) covering Euro area) appear to be oil & gas (SXEP), healthcare (SXNP), telecommunications (SXKP) and autos (SXAP). Those sectors have effective Ns between 7 and 9 and are likely to be concentrated on a few large-cap stocks. Exhibit 28: Sector indices concentration

Telecomunications

Technology

Household Goods

Food & Beverage

Basic Resources

Healthcare

Insurance

Utilities

Financial Services

Industrial Goods

Effective N (SXXP, LHS)

Effective N (SXXE, LHS) Effective N / Constituents (SXXE, RHS)

Effective N / Constituents (SXXP, RHS)


Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Travel & Leisure

Automobiles

Construction

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Oil & Gas

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%


Banks Chemicals Media Retail

28

November 14, 2012

Europe

Our equal weight sub-sectors provide focused and diversified exposure to true sectors this is illustrated by the larger dispersion of returns between them
To fill the gap in the European market for sector products, we have created tradable equally weighted sub-sector baskets around narrowly defined industries that aim to decrease intra-sector dispersion and increase inter-sector dispersion. We allow overlaps between the sub-sectors if companies have exposures to several industries, and aim to strike a balance between relevance and diversification with the number of companies included. Our sub-sectors can be used as peer groups for a variety of investment and valuation strategies and also for hedging single stock positions. Stocks included in the sub-sectors are screened for liquidity and borrowability, allowing investors to gain either long or short exposure at a reasonable transaction cost. As shown in Exhibit 29, the rolling 6-month difference between lowest and highest returns since 1998 was higher for GSSBs than for STOXX Europe 600 sectors. This also suggests a higher potential for sector-selection strategies. In this case, identifying the better and worse performing sectors and constructing a long/short portfolio to implement this view should deliver higher potential alpha relative to market returns. Exhibit 29: The dispersion between the GSSB sectors is higher
Y-axis shows the difference between lowest and highest return (6-month rolling)

140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20%


GSSB Stoxx Europe 600

0% 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

29

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSB updated directory


Exhibit 30: GSSB updated directory
ICB Level 1 STOXX 600 Supersector (ICB Level 2) SX4P Basic materials SXPP SX3P SXAP Consumer goods SXQP Personal & Goods Household Basic Resources Food & Beverage Automobiles & Parts Materials Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary SXTP Travel & Leisure Industrials Transportation Materials Food, Beverage & Tobacco Automobiles & Components Consumer Durables & Apparel Food, Beverage & Tobacco Consumer Durables & Apparel Media Food & Staples Retailing Retailing Consumer Services Chemicals GICS Level 1 Materials GICS Level 2 Materials Goldman Sachs Sub-Sector Basket (GSSB) Chemicals - Fertilizers Chemicals - Modern Chemicals - Traditional Basic Resources - Mining Basic Resources - Steel Paper & Forest Products Beverages Food Products Auto Components Automobiles Household & Personal Products Luxury Goods Tobacco UK Homebuilders Media - Advertising Media - Broadcasters Media - Business Publishers Food Retail General Retail Gaming Hospitality & Leisure Transportation - Airlines Transportation - Road & Rail Banks - Brokers & Asset Managers Banks - Domestic European Banks - Domestic United Kingdom Banks - Global Retail Banks - Nordic Banks - Investment Banks Exchanges Real Estate Insurance Life Assurance Re-Insurance Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals Medical Technology Civil Aerospace Defense Business Services - Cyclical Business Services - Staffing Business Services - Outsourcing & Testing Electrical Equipment Machinery Renewables Transportation - Infrastructure Trucks Building materials Construction Integrated Oil & Gas Oil Exploration & Production Oil Refiners Oil Services Communications Equipment IT Services Semiconductors Software Telecoms - Wireless Telecoms - Wireline (Incumbents) Utilities - Hybrid Utilities - Regulated Utilities - Unregulated Utilities - Water Bloomberg GSSBCHFE GSSBCHMO GSSBCHTR GSSBMINE GSSBSTEL GSSBPAPE GSSBBEVS GSSBFOOP GSSBAUCO GSSBAUTO GSSBHOUS GSSBLUXG GSSBTOBA GSSBUKHO GSSBMEAD GSSBMEBR GSSBMEPU GSSBFORE GSSBGERE GSSBGAMI GSSBHOLR GSSBTRAA GSSBTRAR GSSBBKBR GSSBBKDE GSSBBKDU GSSBBKGL GSSBBKNO GSSBBKIB GSSBEXCH GSSBREAL GSSBINSE GSSBLASE GSSBREIN GSSBBIOT GSSBPHAR GSSBMEDT GSSBCIVA GSSBDEFE GSSBBUSC GSSBSTAF GSSBBSOT GSSBELEQ GSSBMACH GSSBRNEW GSSBTINF GSSBTRUC GSSBBUIL GSSBCONS GSSBOILI GSSBOILE GSSBOILR GSSBOILS GSSBCOMM GSSBITSE GSSBSEMI GSSBSFTW GSSBTELW GSSBTELI GSSBUTHY GSSBUTRE GSSBUTUR GSSBUTIW Cyclical/ Defensive Cyclical Defensive Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Defensive Defensive Cyclical Cyclical Defensive Cyclical Defensive Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Defensive Cyclical Defensive Cyclical Cyclical Defensive Financials Financials Financials Financials Financials Financials Defensive Cyclical Financials Financials Financials Growth Defensive Growth Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Defensive Cyclical Cyclical Growth Defensive Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Defensive Defensive Defensive Defensive Defensive Defensive Currency EUR EUR EUR GBP EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR GBP EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR GBP EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR GBP EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR GBP EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR GBP No. companies 3 7 6 10 8 5 8 8 8 7 10 9 3 8 5 10 9 10 8 6 7 5 5 9 11 3 4 5 6 3 18 11 11 4 5 11 12 6 5 8 4 6 10 12 7 7 5 7 6 8 7 4 16 3 5 6 4 7 10 7 7 10 4

SXMP SXRP

Media Retail

Consumer services

SX7P

Banks

Financials

Banks

Financials

SXFP SX86P SXIP

Financial Services Real Estate Insurance

Financials Financials Financials

Diversified Financial Services Real Estate Insurance Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life sciences Health Care Equipment & Services

Healthcare

SXDP

Healthcare

Health Care

Capital Goods SXNP Industrials Industrial Goods & Services Industrials

Electrical Equipment Capital Goods Electrical Equipment Transportation Capital Goods Materials

SXOP

Construction & Materials Materials

Oil & Gas

SXEP

Oil & Gas

Energy

Energy Technology Hardware & Equipment Software & Services Technology Hardware & Equipment Software & Services Telecommunication Services

Technology

SX8P

Technology

Information Technology

Telecommunications

SXKP

Telecommunications

Telecommunication Services

Utilities

SX6P

Utilities

Utilities

Utilities

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

30

November 14, 2012

Europe

GSSB Constituents
Exhibit 31: GSSB Constituents
STOXX sector

GSSB
Name Ticker Currency Company name Anheuser-Busch InBev NV Carlsberg A/S Davide Campari-Milano SpA Diageo PLC Heineken NV Pernod-Ricard SA Remy Cointreau SA SABMiller PLC Associated British Foods PLC Groupe Danone Kerry Group PLC Nestle SA Nutreco Holding NV Suedzucker AG Tate & Lyle PLC Unilever NV K+S AG Syngenta AG Yara International ASA Air Liquide Bayer AG Givaudan SA Johnson Matthey PLC Linde AG Lonza Group AG Syngenta AG Akzo Nobel NV BASF AG Clariant AG Koninklijke DSM NV Lanxess AG Solvay SA E.ON AG Endesa SA Enel SpA Energias de Portugal SA Gas Natural SDG SA GDF Suez Iberdrola SA National Grid PLC Pennon Group PLC Red Electrica de Espana Severn Trent PLC Snam Rete Gas SpA Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA United Utilities PLC Centrica PLC Drax Group PLC Electricite de France Fortum Oyj RWE AG Scottish & Southern Energy PLC Suez Environnement SA Veolia Environnement Verbund - Oesterreichische Elektrizitaetswirtschafts AG Pennon Group PLC Severn Trent PLC United Utilities PLC Veolia Environnement Bloomberg ABI BB CARLB DC CPR IM DGE LN HEIA NA RI FP RCO FP SAB LN ABF LN BN FP KYG ID NESN VX NUO NA SZU GY TATE LN UNA NA SDF GY SYNN VX YAR NO AI FP BAYN GY GIVN VX JMAT LN LIN GY LONN VX SYNN VX AKZA NA BAS GY CLN VX DSM NA LXS GY SOLB BB EOAN GY ELE SQ ENEL IM EDP PL GAS SQ GSZ FP IBE SQ NG/ LN PNN LN REE SQ SVT LN SRG IM TRN IM UU/ LN CNA LN DRX LN EDF FP FUM1V FH RWE GY SSE LN SEV FP VIE FP VER AV PNN LN SVT LN UU/ LN VIE FP SEDOL 4755317 4169219 B08BR25 0237400 7792559 4682329 4741714 0483548 0673123 B1Y9TB3 0490656 7123870 5183359 5784462 0875413 B12T3J1 B54C017 4356646 7751259 B1YXBJ7 5069211 5980613 B70FPS6 5740817 7333378 4356646 5458314 5086577 7113990 B0HZL93 B05M8B7 4821100 4942904 5271782 7144569 4103596 5650422 B0C2CQ3 B288C92 B08SNH3 B18V863 5723777 B1FH8J7 7251470 B01BN57 B39J2M4 B033F22 B1VNSX3 B0NJJ17 5579550 4768962 0790873 B3B8D04 4031879 4661607 B18V863 B1FH8J7 B39J2M4 4031879 RIC ABI.BR CARLb.CO CPRI.MI DGE.L HEIN.AS PERP.PA RCOP.PA SAB.L ABF.L DANO.PA KYGa.I NESN.VX NUTR.AS SZUG.DE TATE.L UNc.AS SDFGn.DE SYNN.VX YAR.OL AIRP.PA BAYGn.DE GIVN.VX JMAT.L LING.DE LONN.VX SYNN.VX AKZO.AS BASFn.DE CLN.VX DSMN.AS LXSG.DE SOLB.BR EONGn.DE ELE.MC ENEI.MI EDP.LS GAS.MC GSZ.PA IBE.MC NG.L PNN.L REE.MC SVT.L SRG.MI TRN.MI UU.L CNA.L DRX.L EDF.PA FUM1V.HE RWEG.DE SSE.L SEVI.PA VIE.PA VERB.VI PNN.L SVT.L UU.L VIE.PA

Weight
STOXX GSSB 10.0% 12.5% 1.5% 12.5% 0.3% 12.5% 11.7% 12.5% 2.2% 12.5% 3.6% 12.5% 0.4% 12.5% 7.0% 12.5% 1.3% 12.5% 6.1% 12.5% 1.2% 12.5% 29.9% 12.5% 0.4% 12.5% 0.4% 12.5% 0.9% 12.5% 9.3% 12.5% 2.2% 33.3% 10.6% 33.3% 2.4% 33.3% 10.9% 14.3% 15.6% 14.3% 2.2% 14.3% 2.3% 14.3% 9.1% 14.3% 0.3% 14.3% 10.6% 14.3% 3.8% 16.7% 22.5% 16.7% 0.9% 16.7% 2.6% 16.7% 1.9% 16.7% 2.1% 16.7% 12.5% 14.3% 0.6% 14.3% 7.8% 14.3% 2.0% 14.3% 1.6% 14.3% 9.9% 14.3% 6.6% 14.3% 14.2% 14.3% 1.3% 14.3% 1.7% 14.3% 2.0% 14.3% 2.5% 14.3% 1.6% 14.3% 2.4% 14.3% 8.9% 11.1% 1.1% 11.1% 1.8% 11.1% 2.6% 11.1% 7.0% 11.1% 7.1% 11.1% 0.9% 11.1% 1.4% 11.1% 0.5% 11.1% 1.3% 25.0% 2.0% 25.0% 2.4% 25.0% 1.4% 25.0%

Beverages

GSSBBEVS

EUR

Food Products

GSSBFOOP

EUR

Chemicals Fertilizers

GSSBCHFE

EUR

SX4P

Chemicals - Modern GSSBCHMO

EUR

Chemicals Traditional

GSSBCHTR

EUR

Utilities - Hybrid

GSSBUTHY

EUR

Utilities - Regulated GSSBUTRE

EUR

Utilities Unregulated

GSSBUTUR

EUR

Utilities - Water

GSSBUTIW

EUR

Market cap. (US$, mn) 135,482 13,983 4,337 72,452 36,433 28,366 5,382 68,405 17,650 40,358 8,817 204,379 2,661 7,423 5,604 109,157 8,338 35,314 12,688 36,267 70,032 8,985 7,458 30,393 2,438 35,314 12,816 74,876 3,121 10,024 6,461 10,087 37,488 21,067 32,939 9,100 14,989 51,025 30,180 39,977 3,853 6,077 5,786 14,356 7,337 7,011 25,655 3,453 35,777 15,401 25,585 21,046 5,211 5,108 7,604 3,853 5,786 7,011 5,108

3M ADV (US$, mn) 146 26 12 116 56 58 8 87 21 116 12 253 8 12 17 134 50 73 41 87 198 20 20 86 12 73 50 228 26 45 47 34 142 6 155 11 27 101 166 66 11 28 15 44 24 35 41 8 24 30 108 40 14 34 3 11 15 35 34

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

SX6P

SX3P

31

November 14, 2012

Europe

Exhibit 31 cont'd: GSSB Constituents


STOXX sector

GSSB
Name Ticker Currency Company name BNP Paribas SA Societe Generale SA Deutsche Bank AG UBS AG Credit Suisse Group AG Barclays PLC BNP Paribas Credit Agricole SA Commerzbank AG Intesa Sanpaolo SpA KBC Groep NV Mediobanca SpA Natixis Nordea Bank AB Societe Generale UniCredit SpA Barclays PLC Lloyds TSB Group PLC Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA Banco Santander Central Hispano SA HSBC Holdings PLC Standard Chartered PLC Danske Bank A/S DnB NOR ASA Nordea Bank AB Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB Svenska Handelsbanken AB Bolsas y Mercados Espanoles Deutsche Boerse AG London Stock Exchange Group PLC British Land Co PLC Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC Castellum AB Corio NV Derwent London PLC Eurocommercial Properties NV Fonciere Des Regions Gecina SA Hammerson PLC ICADE IMMOFINANZ AG Klepierre Land Securities Group PLC PSP Swiss Property AG Segro PLC Swiss Prime Site AG Unibail-Rodamco Wereldhave NV Alcatel-Lucent Nokia OYJ Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson Atos Origin SA Cap Gemini SA Indra Sistemas SA Tietoenator Oyj Aixtron AG ARM Holdings Plc ASM International NV ASML Holding NV Infineon Technologies AG STMicroelectronics NV Dassault Systemes SA Sage Group PLC SAP AG Software AG Bloomberg BNP FP GLE FP DBK GY UBSN VX CSGN VX BARC LN BNP FP ACA FP CBK GY ISP IM KBC BB MB IM KN FP NDA SS GLE FP UCG IM BARC LN LLOY LN RBS LN BBVA SQ SAN SQ HSBA LN STAN LN DANSKE DC DNB NO NDA SS SEBA SS SHBA SS BME SQ DB1 GY LSE LN BLND LN CSCG LN CAST SS CORA NA DLN LN ECMPA NA FDR FP GFC FP HMSO LN ICAD FP IIA AV LI FP LAND LN PSPN SE SGRO LN SPSN VX UL FP WHA NA ALU FP NOK1V FH ERICB SS ATO FP CAP FP IDR SQ TIE1V FH AIXA GY ARM LN ASM NA ASML NA IFX GY STM FP DSY FP SGE LN SAP GY SOW GY SEDOL 7309681 5966516 5750355 B18YFJ4 7171589 3134865 7309681 7262610 4325538 4076836 4497749 4574813 B1HDJL2 5380031 5966516 B5M1SM3 3134865 0870612 B7T7721 5501906 5705946 0540528 0408284 4588825 4263304 5380031 4813345 5703661 B18S767 7021963 B0SWJX3 0136701 0683434 B0XP0T0 4929286 0265274 4798271 7745638 7742468 0406501 4554406 5679911 7582556 3180943 B012877 B5ZN1N8 B083BH4 7076242 4948623 5975006 5902941 5959378 5654781 4163437 4476210 5479702 5468346 0059585 5165294 5949368 5889505 5962332 5330047 0802165 4846288 4755135 RIC BNPP.PA SOGN.PA DBKGn.DE UBSN.VX CSGN.VX BARC.L BNPP.PA CAGR.PA CBKG.DE ISP.MI KBC.BR MDBI.MI CNAT.PA NDA.ST SOGN.PA CRDI.MI BARC.L LLOY.L RBS.L BBVA.MC SAN.MC HSBA.L STAN.L DANSKE.CO DNB.OL NDA.ST SEBa.ST SHBa.ST BME.MC DB1Gn.DE LSE.L BLND.L CSCG.L CAST.ST COR.AS DLN.L SIPFc.AS FDR.PA GFCP.PA HMSO.L ICAD.PA IMFI.VI LOIM.PA LAND.L PSPN.S SGRO.L SPSN.VX UNBP.PA WEHA.AS ALUA.PA NOK1V.HE ERICb.ST ATOS.PA CAPP.PA IDR.MC TIE1V.HE AIXGn.DE ARM.L ASMI.AS ASML.AS IFXGn.DE STM.PA DAST.PA SGE.L SAPG.DE SOWG.DE

Weight
STOXX GSSB 6.5% 16.7% 3.0% 16.7% 4.8% 16.7% 6.6% 16.7% 3.4% 16.7% 4.7% 16.7% 6.5% 10.0% 0.9% 10.0% 0.9% 10.0% 2.6% 10.0% 0.4% 10.0% 0.3% 10.0% 0.3% 10.0% 2.7% 10.0% 3.0% 10.0% 2.9% 10.0% 4.7% 33.3% 3.7% 33.3% 1.0% 33.3% 5.1% 25.0% 8.5% 25.0% 21.0% 25.0% 5.4% 25.0% 1.1% 20.0% 1.3% 20.0% 2.7% 20.0% 1.5% 20.0% 2.0% 20.0% 1.5% 33.3% 11.2% 33.3% 2.9% 33.3% 7.4% 5.6% 3.2% 5.6% 2.2% 5.6% 2.7% 5.6% 3.3% 5.6% 1.2% 5.6% 2.2% 5.6% 2.3% 5.6% 5.3% 5.6% 2.0% 5.6% 3.7% 5.6% 3.4% 5.6% 9.8% 5.6% 3.4% 5.6% 2.7% 5.6% 4.2% 5.6% 19.8% 5.6% 1.2% 5.6% 1.3% 33.3% 5.1% 33.3% 13.2% 33.3% 1.8% 25.0% 3.1% 25.0% NA 25.0% NA 25.0% 0.6% 16.7% 7.9% 16.7% 0.7% 16.7% 11.7% 16.7% 3.7% 16.7% NA 16.7% 3.3% 25.0% 3.0% 25.0% 30.8% 25.0% 1.2% 25.0%

Investment banks

GSSBBKIB

EUR

Banks - Domestic European

GSSBBKDE

EUR

Banks - Domestic UK Banks - Global Retail

GSSBBKDU GSSBBKGL

GBP EUR

Banks - Nordic

GSSBBKNO

EUR

SXFP

Exchanges

GSSBEXCH

EUR

Real Estate

GSSBREAL

EUR

Communications Equipment IT Services

GSSBCOMM GSSBITSE

EUR EUR

Semiconductors

GSSBSEMI

EUR

Software

GSSBSFTW

EUR

Market cap. (US$, mn) 64,538 25,135 40,161 58,788 30,331 46,125 64,538 17,939 10,047 25,974 8,850 4,910 10,069 35,456 25,135 25,934 46,125 52,021 49,239 43,118 73,829 177,856 55,933 16,038 19,740 35,456 17,236 21,839 1,698 10,452 4,195 7,452 4,608 2,254 4,070 3,290 1,471 4,456 6,929 5,344 4,510 4,293 7,142 9,818 4,028 2,711 4,220 20,088 1,261 2,582 10,110 28,508 5,747 6,472 1,792 1,361 1,236 15,772 1,867 28,595 7,144 5,078 13,100 5,881 88,271 3,527

3M ADV (US$, mn) 255 190 301 182 145 160 255 120 93 261 38 40 15 55 190 383 160 128 50 570 773 186 102 24 33 55 46 45 6 45 7 19 7 3 16 6 4 5 5 12 4 7 6 21 7 5 9 70 6 35 90 70 18 32 6 2 8 53 8 126 57 20 19 NA 191 7

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

SX8P

SX86P

SX7P

32

November 14, 2012

Europe

Exhibit 31 cont'd: GSSB Constituents


STOXX sector

GSSB
Name Ticker Currency Company name Actelion Ltd Grifols SA Lonza Group AG Novozymes A/S Qiagen NV Cie Generale d'Optique Essilor International SA Coloplast A/S Elekta AB Fresenius AG Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co KGaA Getinge AB GN Store Nord A/S Nobel Biocare Holding AG Rhoen Klinikum AG Smith & Nephew PLC Sonova Holding AG AstraZeneca PLC Bayer AG GlaxoSmithKline PLC Merck KGaA Novartis AG Novo Nordisk A/S Roche Holding AG Sanofi-Aventis Shire PLC Stada Arzneimittel AG UCB SA BG Group PLC BP PLC ENI SpA OMV AG Repsol YPF SA Royal Dutch Shell PLC Statoil ASA Total SA Afren PLC Cairn Energy Plc Lundin Petroleum AB Etablissements Maurel et Prom NovaTek OAO Premier Oil PLC Tullow Oil PLC ERG SpA Essar Energy PLC Neste Oil OYJ Saras SpA Aker Solutions ASA AMEC PLC Cie Generale de Geophysique-Veritas Fred Olsen Energy ASA Fugro NV John Wood Group PLC Petrofac Ltd Petroleum Geo-Services ASA ProSafe SE Saipem SpA SBM Offshore NV SeaDrill Ltd Subsea 7 SA Technip SA Tecnicas Reunidas SA TGS Nopec Geophysical Co ASA Bloomberg ATLN VX GRF SQ LONN VX NZYMB DC QIA GY EI FP COLOB DC EKTAB SS FRE GY FME GY GETIB SS GN DC NOBN SW RHK GY SN/ LN SOON VX AZN LN BAYN GY GSK LN MRK GY NOVN VX NOVOB DC ROG VX SAN FP SHP LN SAZ GY UCB BB BG/ LN BP/ LN ENI IM OMV AV REP SQ RDSA NA STL NO FP FP AFR LN CNE LN LUPE SS MAU FP NVTK LI PMO LN TLW LN ERG IM ESSR LN NES1V FH SRS IM AKSO NO AMEC LN GA FP FOE NO FUR NA WG/ LN PFC LN PGS NO PRS NO SPM IM SBMO NA SDRL NO SUBC NO TEC FP TRE SQ TGS NO SEDOL B1YD5Q2 B01SPF2 7333378 B798FW0 5732825 7212477 B04TZX0 B0M42T2 4352097 5129074 7698356 4501093 7385722 4717629 0922320 7156036 0989529 5069211 0925288 4741844 7103065 7077524 7110388 5671735 B2QKY05 5386750 5596991 0876289 0798059 7145056 4651459 5669354 B09CBL4 7133608 B15C557 B067275 B74CDH8 7187627 B05DY78 B0DK750 B43G057 0150080 5337093 B5SXPF5 B06YV46 B04F679 B1VLVW7 0028262 4215394 5344101 B096LW7 B5N0P84 B0H2K53 B1L7YL5 B1L9DW5 4768768 B156T57 B09RMQ1 5258246 4874160 B16FTB9 B15SLC4 RIC ATLN.VX GRLS.MC LONN.VX NZYMb.CO QGEN.DE ESSI.PA COLOb.CO EKTAb.ST FREG.DE FMEG.DE GETIb.ST GN.CO NOBN.S RHKG.DE SN.L SOON.VX AZN.L BAYGn.DE GSK.L MRCG.DE NOVN.VX NOVOb.CO ROG.VX SASY.PA SHP.L STAGn.DE UCB.BR BG.L BP.L ENI.MI OMVV.VI REP.MC RDSa.AS STL.OL TOTF.PA AFRE.L CNE.L LUPE.ST MAUP.PA NVTKq.L PMO.L TLW.L ERG.MI ESSR.L NES1V.HE SRS.MI AKSO.OL AMEC.L GEPH.PA FOE.OL FUGRc.AS WG.L PFC.L PGS.OL PRSO.OL SPMI.MI SBMO.AS SDRL.OL SUBC.OL TECF.PA TRE.MC TGS.OL

Weight
STOXX GSSB 0.7% 20.0% 0.6% 20.0% 0.3% 20.0% 0.8% 20.0% 0.5% 20.0% 2.5% 9.1% 0.6% 9.1% 0.6% 9.1% 1.8% 9.1% 1.8% 9.1% 0.8% 9.1% 0.3% 9.1% NA 9.1% 0.3% 9.1% 1.2% 9.1% 0.7% 9.1% 7.3% 9.1% 15.6% 9.1% 13.6% 9.1% 1.1% 9.1% 21.1% 9.1% 8.4% 9.1% 15.5% 9.1% 13.6% 9.1% 2.0% 9.1% 0.2% 9.1% 0.7% 9.1% 9.4% 12.5% 21.7% 12.5% 10.1% 12.5% 0.8% 12.5% 2.6% 12.5% 15.0% 12.5% 4.3% 12.5% 14.8% 12.5% 0.4% 14.3% 0.4% 14.3% 0.9% 14.3% 0.2% 14.3% NA 14.3% 0.5% 14.3% 3.4% 14.3% NA 25.0% NA 25.0% 0.3% 25.0% NA 25.0% 0.5% 6.3% 0.9% 6.3% 0.8% 6.3% NA 6.3% 0.8% 6.3% 0.8% 6.3% 1.0% 6.3% 0.6% 6.3% NA 6.3% 1.8% 6.3% 0.4% 6.3% 2.3% 6.3% 1.0% 6.3% 2.0% 6.3% 0.2% 6.3% 0.6% 6.3%

Biotechnology

GSSBBIOT

EUR

Medical Technology GSSBMEDT

EUR

Pharmaceuticals

GSSBPHAR

EUR

Integrated Oil & Gas GSSBOILI

EUR

Oil Exploration & Production

GSSBOILE

EUR

Oil Refiners

GSSBOILR

EUR

Oil Services

GSSBOILS

EUR

Market cap. (US$, mn) 5,857 9,731 2,438 8,591 4,090 19,309 10,070 5,188 19,403 20,565 7,160 2,902 1,019 2,574 9,469 7,100 56,845 70,032 105,930 27,163 163,371 87,233 164,789 115,635 15,755 1,724 9,963 56,337 129,766 80,926 11,214 24,364 221,107 75,741 114,209 2,366 2,632 7,155 1,754 30,970 2,832 19,955 1,016 2,755 3,019 1,088 4,988 5,014 5,145 2,938 5,448 5,023 8,563 3,631 1,832 19,255 2,191 17,948 7,460 12,087 2,472 3,206

3M ADV (US$, mn) 16 22 12 12 6 51 13 23 45 47 16 11 7 17 19 18 93 198 172 34 219 102 189 228 48 9 11 132 173 401 9 134 142 73 224 10 7 23 4 53 8 45 1 3 11 3 19 19 27 7 25 16 24 32 4 72 20 35 NA 40 9 14

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

SXEP

SXDP

33

November 14, 2012

Europe

Exhibit 31 cont'd: GSSB Constituents


STOXX sector

GSSB
Name Ticker Currency Company name Compagnie Generale des Etablissements Michelin Continental AG Faurecia GKN PLC Nokian Renkaat OYJ Pirelli & C SpA Rheinmetall AG Valeo SA Bayerische Motoren Werke AG DaimlerChrysler AG Fiat SpA Peugeot SA Porsche AG Renault SA Volkswagen AG Admiral Group PLC Allianz SE Baloise Holding AG Fondiaria-Sai SpA ING Groep NV Mapfre SA Old Mutual PLC Royal & Sun Alliance Insurance Group Sampo Oyj SCOR SE Zurich Financial Services AG Aegon NV Ageas Assicurazioni Generali SpA Aviva PLC AXA SA ING Groep NV Legal & General Group PLC Old Mutual PLC Prudential PLC Standard Life PLC Swiss Life Holding Hannover Rueckversicherung AG Muenchener Rueckversicherungs AG SCOR SE Swiss Re AG Bouygues Mobistar SA Tele2 AB Vodafone Group PLC Belgacom SA BT Group PLC Deutsche Telekom AG France Telecom SA Portugal Telecom SGPS SA Royal KPN NV Swisscom AG Telecom Italia SpA Telefonica SA Telenor ASA TeliaSonera AB Vivendi SA Bloomberg ML FP CON GY EO FP GKN LN NRE1V FH PC IM RHM GY FR FP BMW GY DAI GY F IM UG FP PAH3 GY RNO FP VOW3 GY ADM LN ALV GY BALN VX FSA IM INGA NA MAP SQ OML LN RSA LN SAMAS FH SCR FP ZURN VX AGN NA AGS BB G IM AV/ LN CS FP INGA NA LGEN LN OML LN PRU LN SL/ LN SLHN VX HNR1 GY MUV2 GY SCR FP SREN VX EN FP MOBB BB TEL2B SS VOD LN BELG BB BT/A LN DTE GY FTE FP PTC PL KPN NA SCMN VX TIT IM TEF SQ TEL NO TLSN SS VIV FP SEDOL 4588364 4598589 4400446 3064650 B07G378 4689803 5334588 4937579 5756029 5529027 5748521 7103526 7101069 4712798 5497168 B02J639 5231485 7124594 B89YH96 7154182 B1G40S0 B77J086 0661689 5226038 B1LB9P6 5983816 5927375 B86S2N0 4056719 0216238 7088429 7154182 0560399 B77J086 0709954 B16KPT4 7437805 4511809 5294121 B1LB9P6 B545MG5 4002121 5541979 B085590 B16GWD5 B00D9P6 3091357 5842359 5176177 5817186 5956078 5533976 7634394 5732524 4732495 5978384 4834777

Weight
RIC STOXX GSSB MICP.PA 9.3% 12.5% CONG.DE 4.7% 12.5% EPED.PA NA 12.5% GKN.L 3.3% 12.5% NRE1V.HE 3.2% 12.5% PECI.MI 1.5% 12.5% RHMG.DE 1.0% 12.5% VLOF.PA 1.8% 12.5% BMWG.DE 16.1% 14.3% DAIGn.DE 27.8% 14.3% FIA.MI 2.3% 14.3% PEUP.PA 0.8% 14.3% PSHG_p.DE 6.0% 14.3% RENA.PA 5.5% 14.3% VOWG_p.DE 16.5% 14.3% ADML.L 0.9% 9.1% ALVG.DE 13.9% 9.1% BALN.VX 1.0% 9.1% FOSA.MI NA 9.1% ING.AS 8.5% 9.1% MAP.MC 0.4% 9.1% OML.L 3.3% 9.1% RSA.L 1.6% 9.1% SAMAS.HE 3.8% 9.1% SCOR.PA 1.2% 9.1% ZURN.VX 9.2% 9.1% AEGN.AS 2.4% 9.1% AGES.BR 1.5% 9.1% GASI.MI 5.4% 9.1% AV.L 3.9% 9.1% AXAF.PA 7.2% 9.1% ING.AS 8.5% 9.1% LGEN.L 3.4% 9.1% OML.L 3.3% 9.1% PRU.L 9.0% 9.1% SL.L 2.9% 9.1% SLHN.VX 0.9% 9.1% HNRGn.DE 1.1% 25.0% MUVGn.DE 6.7% 25.0% SCOR.PA 1.2% 25.0% SRENH.VX 6.1% 25.0% BOUY.PA 3.9% 25.0% MSTAR.BR NA 25.0% TEL2b.ST 1.7% 25.0% VOD.L 30.2% 25.0% BCOM.BR 1.3% 8.3% BT.L 9.9% 8.3% DTEGn.DE 10.8% 8.3% FTE.PA 6.9% 8.3% PTC.LS 1.1% 8.3% KPN.AS 2.1% 8.3% SCMN.VX 3.1% 8.3% TLIT.MI 3.3% 8.3% TEF.MC 15.0% 8.3% TEL.OL 4.8% 8.3% TLSN.ST 4.9% 8.3% VIV.PA 15.7% 8.3%

Auto Components

GSSBAUCO

EUR

Automobiles

GSSBAUTO

EUR

Insurance

GSSBINSE

EUR

Life Assurance

GSSBLASE

EUR

Re-Insurance Telecoms Wireless

GSSBREIN

EUR

GSSBTELW

EUR

Telecoms - Wireline GSSBTELI (Incumbents)

EUR

Market cap. (US$, mn) 15,080 19,190 1,597 5,377 5,129 5,184 1,624 3,291 51,537 49,055 5,454 2,016 19,456 12,665 87,682 4,695 54,897 4,074 1,456 32,821 7,871 13,184 6,335 17,232 4,936 36,088 10,564 6,214 24,537 15,408 35,644 32,821 13,405 13,184 35,139 11,457 4,691 8,518 29,165 4,936 25,940 7,168 1,498 7,315 126,903 9,596 28,510 45,724 27,654 4,289 8,380 20,874 17,088 58,595 30,671 27,863 25,216

3M ADV (US$, mn) 65 65 5 19 26 31 10 17 196 230 82 30 32 60 204 217 217 14 12 195 15 23 18 24 9 91 45 18 107 48 123 195 27 23 54 19 25 15 109 9 62 26 3 26 200 15 65 154 102 15 37 31 59 273 37 48 76

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

SXKP

SXIP

SXAP

34

November 14, 2012

Europe

Exhibit 31 cont'd: GSSB Constituents


STOXX sector

GSSB
Name Ticker Currency Company name European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co NV Meggitt PLC MTU Aero Engines Holding AG Rolls-Royce Group PLC Safran SA Zodiac SA BAE Systems PLC Cobham PLC Finmeccanica SpA Rheinmetall AG Thales SA Bunzl PLC Compass Group PLC Deutsche Post AG Experian Finance PLC G4S PLC Rentokil Initial PLC Securitas AB Sodexho Alliance SA Adecco SA Hays PLC Michael Page International Plc Randstad Holding NV Capita Group PLC/The Serco Group PLC Babcock International Group PLC Intertek Group PLC SGS SA Bureau Veritas SA ABB Ltd Alfa Laval AB Alstom Electrolux AB Invensys PLC Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV Legrand SA Nexans SA Prysmian SpA Schneider Electric SA Siemens AG Assa Abloy AB Atlas Copco AB FLSmidth & Co A/S GEA Group AG IMI Plc Invensys PLC Kone OYJ Metso Oyj Sandvik AB SKF AB Wartsila OYJ Abp Weir Group Plc (The) Acciona SA EDP Renovaveis SA Enel Green Power SpA Gamesa Corp Tecnologica SA Solarworld AG Vestas Wind Systems A/S Wacker Chemie AG Abertis Infraestructuras SA Aeroports de Paris Atlantia SpA Groupe Eurotunnel SA Ferrovial SA Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide Koninklijke Vopak NV Fiat Industrial SpA Konecranes OYJ MAN AG Scania AB Volvo AB Bloomberg EAD FP MGGT LN MTX GY RR/ LN SAF FP ZC FP BA/ LN COB LN FNC IM RHM GY HO FP BNZL LN CPG LN DPW GY EXPN LN GFS LN RTO LN SECUB SS SW FP ADEN VX HAS LN MPI LN RAND NA CPI LN SRP LN BAB LN ITRK LN SGSN VX BVI FP ABBN VX ALFA SS ALO FP ELUXB SS ISYS LN PHIA NA LR FP NEX FP PRY IM SU FP SIE GY ASSAB SS ATCOA SS FLS DC G1A GY IMI LN ISYS LN KNEBV FH MEO1V FH SAND SS SKFB SS WRT1V FH WEIR LN ANA SQ EDPR PL EGPW IM GAM SQ SWV GY VWS DC WCH GY ABE SQ ADP FP ATL IM GET FP FER SM FRA GY VPK NA FI IM KCR1V FH MAN GY SCVB SS VOLVB SS SEDOL 4012250 0575809 B09DHL9 B63H849 B058TZ6 7294334 0263494 B07KD36 B0DJNG0 5334588 4162791 B0744B3 0533153 4617859 B19NLV4 B01FLG6 B082RF1 5554041 7062713 7110720 0416102 3023231 5228658 B23K0M2 0797379 0969703 3163836 4824778 B28DTJ6 7108899 7332687 B0DJ8Q5 B1KKBX6 B19DVX6 5986622 B11ZRK9 7130836 B1W4V69 4834108 5727973 5698789 B1QGR41 5263574 4557104 0457963 B19DVX6 B09M9D2 5713422 B1VQ252 B1Q3J35 4525189 0946580 5579107 B39GNW2 B4TWTW9 B01CP21 5819869 5964651 B11Y568 4065663 B164FY1 7667163 B292JQ9 B038516 7107551 5809428 B52B4V4 B11WFP1 5563520 B1RDYG2 B1QH830 RIC EAD.PA MGGT.L MTXGn.DE RR.L SAF.PA ZODC.PA BAES.L COB.L SIFI.MI RHMG.DE TCFP.PA BNZL.L CPG.L DPWGn.DE EXPN.L GFS.L RTO.L SECUb.ST EXHO.PA ADEN.VX HAYS.L MPI.L RAND.AS CPI.L SRP.L BAB.L ITRK.L SGSN.VX BVI.PA ABBN.VX ALFA.ST ALSO.PA ELUXb.ST ISYS.L PHG.AS LEGD.PA NEXS.PA PRY.MI SCHN.PA SIEGn.DE ASSAb.ST ATCOa.ST FLS.CO G1AG.DE IMI.L ISYS.L KNEBV.HE MEO1V.HE SAND.ST SKFb.ST WRT1V.HE WEIR.L ANA.MC EDPR.LS EGPW.MI GAM.MC SWVG.DE VWS.CO WCHG.DE ABE.MC ADP.PA ATL.MI GETP.PA FER.MC FRAG.DE VOPA.AS FI.MI KCR1V.HE MANG.DE SCVb.ST VOLVb.ST

Weight
STOXX GSSB 1.6% 9.1% 0.6% 9.1% 0.6% 9.1% 3.6% 9.1% 1.5% 9.1% 0.5% 9.1% 2.2% 9.1% 0.4% 9.1% 0.3% 9.1% 1.0% 9.1% 0.4% 9.1% 0.7% 12.5% 22.0% 12.5% 2.4% 12.5% 2.3% 12.5% 0.8% 12.5% 0.3% 12.5% 0.3% 12.5% 8.1% 12.5% 0.8% 25.0% 0.2% 25.0% 0.2% 25.0% 0.4% 25.0% 1.1% 16.7% 0.6% 16.7% 0.8% 16.7% 1.0% 16.7% 1.6% 16.7% 0.8% 16.7% 5.8% 9.1% 0.7% 9.1% 1.0% 9.1% 1.4% 9.1% 1.4% 9.1% 3.3% 9.1% 1.3% 9.1% NA 9.1% 0.5% 9.1% 4.7% 9.1% 11.4% 9.1% 7.8% 8.3% 2.2% 8.3% 2.0% 8.3% 0.7% 8.3% 0.7% 8.3% 1.4% 8.3% 1.9% 8.3% 0.6% 8.3% 2.1% 8.3% 1.2% 8.3% 0.9% 8.3% 0.8% 8.3% 1.0% 14.3% NA 14.3% 0.8% 14.3% NA 14.3% NA 14.3% NA 14.3% 0.3% 14.3% 0.7% 14.3% 0.3% 14.3% 0.7% 14.3% 0.5% 14.3% NA 14.3% 0.3% 14.3% 0.6% 14.3% 1.2% 20.0% 0.2% 20.0% 0.5% 20.0% 0.8% 20.0% 2.5% 20.0%

Civil aerospace

GSSBCIVA

EUR

Defense

GSSBDEFE

EUR

Business Services GSSBBUSC Cyclical

EUR

Business Services GSSBSTAF Staffing Business Services Outsourcing & GSSBBSOT Testing

EUR

EUR

SXNP

Electrical Equipment

GSSBELEQ

EUR

Machinery

GSSBMACH

EUR

Renewables

GSSBRNEW

EUR

Transportation Infrastructure

GSSBTINF

EUR

Trucks

GSSBTRUC

EUR

Market cap. (US$, mn) 27,527 4,663 4,229 26,044 15,901 5,675 15,916 3,256 2,714 1,624 6,820 5,430 20,520 22,950 16,888 5,598 2,496 2,819 12,143 8,961 1,777 1,727 5,590 7,500 4,314 5,541 7,348 16,652 11,634 42,117 7,188 10,859 7,517 2,830 24,507 9,734 1,191 3,904 34,894 88,942 12,542 28,868 2,905 5,568 4,771 2,830 18,594 5,181 17,085 10,269 7,839 5,865 3,316 4,211 7,842 542 177 860 2,792 11,102 7,558 10,675 4,096 10,223 5,038 8,951 12,501 1,989 14,561 15,144 28,161

3M ADV (US$, mn) 97 8 9 55 32 14 43 7 42 10 5 10 37 71 26 15 5 11 20 33 6 6 17 18 9 13 13 18 15 100 24 50 46 6 78 30 8 24 98 343 32 72 18 12 16 6 21 33 58 54 20 29 8 3 8 5 1 13 9 60 4 29 6 34 7 14 42 11 24 23 93

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

35

November 14, 2012


Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Europe

Exhibit 31 cont'd: GSSB Constituents


STOXX sector

GSSB
Name Ticker Currency Company name Buzzi Unicem SpA Cie de Saint-Gobain CRH PLC HeidelbergCement AG Holcim Ltd Lafarge SA Wienerberger AG Wolseley PLC Acciona SA Balfour Beatty PLC Bilfinger Berger AG Hochtief AG Skanska AB Vinci SA Anglo American PLC Antofagasta PLC BHP Billiton PLC Boliden AB Kazakhmys PLC Lonmin Plc Norsk Hydro ASA Rio Tinto PLC Vedanta Resources PLC Arcelor Mittal Outokumpu OYJ Rautaruukki OYJ Salzgitter AG Ssab Svenskt Stal AB ThyssenKrupp AG Vallourec Voestalpine AG Holmen AB Mondi PLC Stora Enso Oyj Svenska Cellulosa AB UPM-Kymmene Oyj Adidas AG Beiersdorf AG Electrolux AB Henkel KGaA Husqvarna AB Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV L'Oreal SA Puma AG Rudolf Dassler Sport Reckitt Benckiser PLC Rexam PLC Burberry Group PLC Christian Dior SA Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA Hermes International Luxottica Group SpA LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA PPR Swatch Group AG Tod's SpA British American Tobacco PLC Imperial Tobacco Group PLC Swedish Match AB Barratt Developments PLC Bellway PLC Berkeley Group Holdings PLC Persimmon PLC Taylor Wimpey PLC Travis Perkins PLC Wolseley PLC Bloomberg BZU IM SGO FP CRH ID HEI GY HOLN VX LG FP WIE AV WOS LN ANA SQ BBY LN GBF GY HOT GY SKAB SS DG FP AAL LN ANTO LN BLT LN BOL SS KAZ LN LMI LN NHY NO RIO LN VED LN MT NA OUT1V FH RTRKS FH SZG GY SSABA SS TKA GY VK FP VOE AV HOLMB SS MNDI LN STERV FH SCAB SS UPM1V FH ADS GY BEI GY ELUXB SS HEN3 GY HUSQB SS PHIA NA OR FP PUM GY RB/ LN REX LN BRBY LN CDI FP CFR VX RMS FP LUX IM MC FP PP FP UHR VX TOD IM BATS LN IMT LN SWMA SS BDEV LN BWY LN BKG LN PSN LN TW/ LN TPK LN WOS LN SEDOL 5782206 7380482 0182704 5120679 7110753 4502706 5699373 B3YWCQ2 5579107 0096162 5117381 5108664 7142091 B1XH026 B1XZS82 0045614 0056650 B1XCBX9 B0HZPV3 3119248 B11HK39 0718875 3327706 B03XPL1 4665148 4727662 5465358 B17H0S8 5636927 B197DR6 4943402 5036066 B1CRLC4 5072673 B1VVGZ5 5051252 4031976 5107401 B1KKBX6 5076705 B12PJ24 5986622 4057808 5064722 B24CGK7 0425045 3174300 4061393 B3DCZF3 5253973 4800659 4061412 5505072 7184725 4643735 0287580 0454492 5048566 0081180 0090498 B02L3W3 0682538 0878230 0773960 B3YWCQ2 RIC BZU.MI SGOB.PA CRH.I HEIG.DE HOLN.VX LAFP.PA WBSV.VI WOS.L ANA.MC BALF.L GBFG.DE HOTG.DE SKAb.ST SGEF.PA AAL.L ANTO.L BLT.L BOL.ST KAZ.L LMI.L NHY.OL RIO.L VED.L ISPA.AS OUT1V.HE RTRKS.HE SZGG.DE SSABa.ST TKAG.DE VLLP.PA VOES.VI HOLMb.ST MNDI.L STERV.HE SCAb.ST UPM1V.HE ADSGn.DE BEIG.DE ELUXb.ST HNKG_p.DE HUSQb.ST PHG.AS OREP.PA PUMG.DE RB.L REX.L BRBY.L DIOR.PA CFR.VX HRMS.PA LUX.MI LVMH.PA PRTP.PA UHR.VX TOD.MI BATS.L IMT.L SWMA.ST BDEV.L BWY.L BKGH.L PSN.L TW.L TPK.L WOS.L

Weight
STOXX GSSB NA 12.5% 11.1% 12.5% 9.0% 12.5% 5.1% 12.5% 10.5% 12.5% 7.5% 12.5% NA 12.5% 1.7% 12.5% 1.0% 16.7% 1.8% 16.7% 0.5% 16.7% 0.9% 16.7% 4.3% 16.7% 14.6% 16.7% 14.1% 11.1% 2.8% 11.1% 23.6% 11.1% 1.6% 11.1% 0.8% 11.1% 0.4% 11.1% 1.5% 11.1% 15.4% 11.1% 0.7% 11.1% 5.2% 12.5% NA 12.5% NA 12.5% 0.6% 12.5% 0.4% 12.5% 1.2% 12.5% 0.7% 12.5% 1.2% 12.5% 0.5% 20.0% 1.3% 20.0% 1.3% 20.0% 2.8% 20.0% 2.0% 20.0% 4.0% 10.0% 1.8% 10.0% 1.4% 10.0% 3.4% 10.0% 0.5% 10.0% 3.3% 10.0% 7.2% 10.0% 0.2% 10.0% 9.3% 10.0% 0.8% 10.0% 2.0% 11.1% 1.8% 11.1% 8.5% 11.1% 0.7% 11.1% 1.4% 11.1% 10.2% 11.1% 5.9% 11.1% 3.2% 11.1% 0.2% 11.1% 24.4% 33.3% 9.1% 33.3% 1.6% 33.3% 0.7% 14.3% 0.4% 14.3% 0.8% 14.3% 0.9% 14.3% 0.7% 14.3% 0.6% 14.3% 1.7% 14.3%

Building materials

GSSBBUIL

EUR

Construction

GSSBCONS

EUR

Basic Resources Mining

GSSBMINE

EUR

Basic Resources Steel

GSSBSTEL

EUR

Paper & Forest Products

GSSBPAPE

EUR

Household & Personal Products

GSSBHOUS

EUR

Luxury goods

GSSBLUXG

EUR

Tobacco

GSSBTOBA

EUR

UK Homebuilders

GSSBUKHO

GBP

Market cap. (US$, mn) 2,078 19,170 13,167 9,851 21,904 16,789 859 12,396 3,316 2,604 4,281 3,720 6,485 24,047 39,091 19,552 179,032 4,570 5,680 1,561 9,115 95,446 4,600 24,095 1,313 870 2,603 2,257 11,205 5,257 5,074 2,394 4,921 5,013 13,756 5,503 17,096 19,250 7,517 31,086 3,331 24,507 77,101 4,158 43,539 6,206 8,638 26,701 39,997 30,298 17,852 82,543 21,978 23,377 3,424 98,877 38,349 6,717 2,898 1,885 3,121 3,685 3,007 4,252 12,396

3M ADV (US$, mn) 10 73 22 38 47 53 2 47 8 8 12 7 21 75 109 36 193 33 26 13 17 261 17 173 5 4 14 26 77 31 8 6 8 19 47 21 67 30 46 48 12 78 90 3 76 17 50 14 110 9 35 135 53 75 12 143 89 31 12 4 7 13 10 10 47

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

SXQP

SXPP

SXOP

36

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Europe

Exhibit 31 cont'd: GSSB Constituents


STOXX sector

GSSB
Name Ticker Currency Company name Carrefour SA Casino Guichard Perrachon SA Colruyt SA Delhaize Group J Sainsbury PLC Kesko OYJ Koninklijke Ahold NV Metro AG Tesco PLC WM Morrison Supermarkets PLC Celesio AG Hennes & Mauritz AB Home Retail Group PLC Inditex SA Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA Kingfisher PLC Marks & Spencer Group PLC Next PLC PPR Bwin.Party Digital Entertainment PLC IG Group Holdings PLC Ladbrokes PLC Lottomatica SpA Paddy Power PLC William Hill PLC Accor SA Carnival PLC Intercontinental Hotels Group PLC Mitchells & Butlers PLC TUI AG TUI Travel PLC Whitbread PLC Air France-KLM Deutsche Lufthansa AG International Consolidated Airlines Group SA easyJet PLC Ryanair Holdings plc DSV A/S Firstgroup Plc Go-Ahead Group Plc National Express Group PLC Stagecoach Group PLC Aegis Group Plc Havas SA JC Decaux SA Publicis Groupe WPP Group PLC British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC Eutelsat Communications SA ITV PLC Kabel Deutschland Holding AG M6-Metropole Television Mediaset SpA Modern Times Group AB ProSiebenSat.1 Media AG SES Societe Television Francaise 1 Axel Springer AG Daily Mail & General Trust Informa PLC Lagardere SCA Pearson PLC Reed Elsevier NV Schibsted ASA United Business Media PLC Wolters Kluwer NV Bloomberg CA FP CO FP COLR BB DELB BB SBRY LN KESBV FH AH NA MEO GY TSCO LN MRW LN CLS1 GY HMB SS HOME LN ITX SQ JMT PL KGF LN MKS LN NXT LN PP FP BPTY LN IGG LN LAD LN LTO IM PWL ID WMH LN AC FP CCL LN IHG LN MAB LN TUI1 GY TT/ LN WTB LN AF FP LHA GY IAG LN EZJ LN RYA ID DSV DC FGP LN GOG LN NEX LN SGC LN AGS LN HAV FP DEC FP PUB FP WPP LN BSY LN ETL FP ITV LN KD8 GY MMT FP MS IM MTGB SS PSM GY SESG FP TFI FP SPR GY DMGT LN INF LN MMB FP PSON LN REN NA SCH NO UBM LN WKL NA SEDOL 5641567 4178419 5806225 4262118 B019KW7 4490005 5252602 5041413 0884709 0604316 5105182 5687431 B19NKB7 7111314 B1Y1SQ7 3319521 3127489 3208986 5505072 B53TNH6 B06QFB7 B0ZSH63 B0V3WR8 0258810 3169889 5852842 3121522 B85KYF3 B1FP6H5 5666292 B1Z7RQ7 B1KJJ40 4916039 5287488 B5M6XQ7 B7KR2P8 B1GKF38 B1WT5G2 0345217 0375377 0621520 B6YTLS9 B4JV1B9 5980958 7136663 4380429 B3DMTY0 0141192 B0M7KJ7 3398649 B4T92J8 5993901 5077946 B151P43 4579131 B00ZQQ2 5997118 4647317 0945736 B3WJHK4 4547213 0677608 4148810 4790534 B2R84W0 5671519 RIC CARR.PA CASP.PA COLR.BR DELB.BR SBRY.L KESBV.HE AHLN.AS MEOG.DE TSCO.L MRW.L CLSGn.DE HMb.ST HOME.L ITX.MC JMT.LS KGF.L MKS.L NXT.L PRTP.PA BPTY.L IGG.L LAD.L LTO.MI PAP.I WMH.L ACCP.PA CCL.L IHG.L MAB.L TUIGn.DE TT.L WTB.L AIRF.PA LHAG.DE ICAG.L EZJ.L RYA.I DSV.CO FGP.L GOG.L NEX.L SGC.L AEGS.L EURC.PA JCDX.PA PUBP.PA WPP.L BSY.L ETL.PA ITV.L KD8Gn.DE MMTP.PA MS.MI MTGb.ST PSMG_p.DE SESFd.PA TFFP.PA SPRGn.DE DMGOa.L INF.L LAGA.PA PSON.L ELSN.AS SBST.OL UBM.L WLSNc.AS

Weight
STOXX GSSB 6.2% 10.0% 2.2% 10.0% 1.6% 10.0% 1.6% 10.0% 3.4% 10.0% 0.9% 10.0% 5.4% 10.0% 1.6% 10.0% 17.7% 10.0% 4.6% 10.0% 0.7% 11.1% 13.5% 11.1% NA 11.1% 12.3% 11.1% 1.7% 11.1% 4.8% 11.1% 4.4% 11.1% 4.3% 11.1% 5.9% 11.1% 1.3% 16.7% 2.7% 16.7% 3.0% 16.7% NA 16.7% 3.5% 16.7% 4.0% 16.7% 5.3% 14.3% 7.7% 14.3% 7.2% 14.3% NA 14.3% NA 14.3% 1.8% 14.3% 7.2% 14.3% 2.5% 20.0% 3.9% 20.0% 2.6% 20.0% 2.2% 20.0% 9.3% 20.0% 0.6% 20.0% 1.5% 20.0% NA 20.0% 1.2% 20.0% 2.0% 20.0% 1.9% 20.0% 0.7% 20.0% 0.8% 20.0% 5.8% 20.0% 9.9% 20.0% 7.2% 10.0% 2.5% 10.0% 3.3% 10.0% 3.5% 10.0% NA 10.0% 0.7% 10.0% 1.0% 10.0% 1.4% 10.0% 5.4% 10.0% NA 10.0% 1.0% 11.1% 1.3% 11.1% 2.2% 11.1% 1.7% 11.1% 9.5% 11.1% 6.0% 11.1% 1.8% 11.1% 1.6% 11.1% 3.4% 11.1%

Food Retail

GSSBFORE

EUR

General Retail

GSSBGERE

EUR

Gaming

GSSBGAMI

EUR

SXTP

Hospitality & Leisure

GSSBHOLR

EUR

Transportation Airlines

GSSBTRAA

EUR

Transportation Road & Rail

GSSBTRAR

EUR

Media - Advertising GSSBMEAD

EUR

SXMP

Media Broadcasters

GSSBMEBR

EUR

Media - Publishers

GSSBMEPU

EUR

Market cap. (US$, mn) 15,641 9,790 7,614 3,552 10,410 3,094 13,000 8,855 40,989 9,910 3,216 53,799 1,469 79,146 11,106 10,870 9,837 9,349 21,978 1,450 2,556 2,754 3,707 3,505 3,713 6,989 32,205 6,843 2,125 2,291 4,518 6,901 2,769 7,307 5,000 4,113 9,157 4,249 1,385 843 1,389 2,488 4,359 1,911 4,712 11,179 16,303 19,926 6,737 5,876 6,100 1,729 1,914 2,054 5,882 11,006 1,811 4,098 2,773 3,685 3,551 15,841 10,463 4,148 2,720 5,514

3M ADV (US$, mn) 72 19 6 19 23 6 42 37 104 31 5 77 7 516 11 32 29 30 53 5 7 9 11 6 14 21 25 27 2 8 8 18 40 47 16 15 12 10 8 1 2 3 19 2 4 37 53 37 12 20 12 2 32 12 10 14 3 5 4 9 8 35 30 6 8 15

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

SXRP

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November 14, 2012

Europe

European Wavefront baskets


Exhibit 32: Wavefront baskets: What they are and how they work
Strategy Description
Index designed to be levered to changes in market expectations of UK economic growth cycle Index designed to be levered to parts of the economy sensitive to housing-related and household-durables spending in the UK Index designed to be levered to the UK consumer cycle, with an explicit directional growth view Index designed to be levered to the consumer spending cycle while remaining neutral to the overall growth outlook Index designed to be levered to changes in market expectations of European economic growth cycle Index designed to be levered to the European consumer cycle, with an explicit directional growth view Index designed to be levered to the European consumer spending cycle while remaining neutral to the overall growth outlook

Long
Group of industries with high leverage to GDP growth, with an industrial tilt Group of industries sensitive to housing activity and the UK housing cycle Group of industries with high sensitivity to the UK consumer spending cycle Group of industries with high sensitivity to the UK consumer spending cycle Group of industries with high leverage to GDP growth, with an industrial tilt Group of industries with high sensitivity to the European consumer spending cycle Group of industries with high sensitivity to the European consumer spending cycle

Short
Group of industries with less leverage to economic growth or the cycle Group of industries chosen to leave the index neutral to the broader economic and interest rate cyle Group of industries with less leverage to economic growth or the consumer cycle Group of industries with less leverage to economic growth or the cycle Group of industries with less leverage to economic growth or the cycle Group of industries with less leverage to economic growth or the consumer cycle Group of industries with less leverage to economic growth or the cycle

Expected to Rise

Notes

UK Cyclical Growth (GSTWUKGR)

as expectations of UK growth improve Through its exposure to housing activity, the basket has significant sensitivity to interest rates

UK Housing (GSTWUKHO) UK Consumer Growth (GSTWUKCG) UK Consumer Rotation (GSTWUKCR) Europe Cyclical Growth (GSTWEUGR)

if expectations of housingrelated activity improve as market expectations of consumer-led economic growth rise. if UK consumer growth expectations rise relative to broader cyclical growth expectations as expectations of Europe (ex UK) growth improve

Industries have been selected to leave the basket broadly neutral to the overall growth cycle

Europe Consumer Growth (GSTWEUCG) Europe Consumer Rotation (GSTWEUCR)

as market expectations of consumer-led economic growth rise in Europe if consumer growth expectations rise relative to broader cyclical growth expectations in Europe Industries have been selected to leave the basket broadly neutral to the overall growth cycle

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

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November 14, 2012

Europe

Exhibit 33: UK Consumer Growth (GSTWUKCG)

UK Consumer Growth Long (GSTCUCGL)


Company Name Automobiles & Parts Gkn Plc General Financial International Personal Finan General Retailers Carpetright Plc Debenhams Plc Halfords Group Plc Kingfisher Plc Marks & Spencer Group Plc Mothercare Plc Next Plc Household Goods Barratt Developments Plc Berkeley Group Holdings Bovis Homes Group Plc Bellway Plc Persimmon Plc Taylor Wimpey Plc Support Services Howden Joinery Group Plc Technology Hardware & Equipment Spirent Communications Plc Travel & Leisure 888 Holdings Plc Bwin.Party Digital Entertain Carnival Plc Compass Group Plc Domino'S Pizza Group Plc Enterprise Inns Plc Easyjet Plc Greene King Plc Intl Consolidated Airline-Di Intercontinental Hotels Grou Wetherspoon (J.D.) Plc Ladbrokes Plc Mitchells & Butlers Plc Millennium & Copthorne Hotel National Express Group Plc Punch Taverns Plc Rank Group Plc Thomas Cook Group Plc Tui Travel Plc William Hill Plc Whitbread Plc
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

UK Consumer Growth Short (GSTCUCGS)


Company Name Beverages Britvic Plc Diageo Plc Sabmiller Plc Fixed Line Telecommunications Bt Group Plc Colt Group Sa Cable & Wireless Communicati Food & Drug Retailers Wm Morrison Supermarkets Sainsbury (J) Plc Tesco Plc Household Goods Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc Media British Sky Broadcasting Gro Itv Plc Mobile Telecommunications Inmarsat Plc Vodafone Group Plc Personal Goods Burberry Group Plc Pz Cussons Plc Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Astrazeneca Plc Glaxosmithkline Plc Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc Shire Plc Tobacco British American Tobacco Plc Imperial Tobacco Group Plc Travel & Leisure Marston'S Plc Index Weight (%) 15.21 2.17 6.79 6.24 8.26 6.11 0.29 1.86 10.87 2.46 2.81 5.60 6.15 6.15 11.18 5.25 5.93 13.49 7.02 6.47 5.66 5.18 0.48 14.91 7.09 6.62 0.35 0.85 13.26 7.65 5.61 1.02 1.02

Index Weight (%) 5.30 5.30 1.62 1.62 22.52 0.36 1.67 1.37 5.64 5.57 1.44 6.48 15.36 4.48 2.34 0.48 1.18 4.86 2.04 2.07 2.07 0.50 0.50 52.63 0.47 1.12 4.68 7.63 0.84 0.93 4.04 1.13 8.44 3.34 0.21 2.75 1.47 0.55 0.97 0.21 0.51 3.17 2.85 4.77 2.55

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

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November 14, 2012

Europe

Exhibit 34: UK Consumer Rotation (GSTWUKCR)


UK Consumer Rotation Long (GSTCUCRL)
Company Name Automobiles & Parts Gkn Plc General Financial International Personal Finan General Retailers Carpetright Plc Debenhams Plc Halfords Group Plc Kingfisher Plc Marks & Spencer Group Plc Mothercare Plc Next Plc Household Goods Barratt Developments Plc Berkeley Group Holdings Bovis Homes Group Plc Bellway Plc Persimmon Plc Taylor Wimpey Plc Support Services Howden Joinery Group Plc Technology Hardware & Equipment Spirent Communications Plc Travel & Leisure 888 Holdings Plc Bwin.Party Digital Entertain Carnival Plc Compass Group Plc Domino'S Pizza Group Plc Enterprise Inns Plc Easyjet Plc Greene King Plc Intl Consolidated Airline-Di Intercontinental Hotels Grou Wetherspoon (J.D.) Plc Ladbrokes Plc Mitchells & Butlers Plc Millennium & Copthorne Hotel National Express Group Plc Punch Taverns Plc Rank Group Plc Thomas Cook Group Plc Tui Travel Plc William Hill Plc Whitbread Plc Index Weight (%) 5.30 5.30 1.62 1.62 22.52 0.36 1.67 1.37 5.64 5.57 1.44 6.48 15.36 4.48 2.34 0.48 1.18 4.86 2.04 2.07 2.07 0.50 0.50 52.63 0.47 1.12 4.68 7.63 0.84 0.93 4.04 1.13 8.44 3.34 0.21 2.75 1.47 0.55 0.97 0.21 0.51 3.17 2.85 4.77 2.55

UK Consumer Rotation Short (GSTCUCRS)


Company Name Aerospace & Defence Bae Systems Plc Chemring Group Plc Cobham Plc Meggitt Plc Qinetiq Group Plc Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc Ultra Electronics Hldgs Plc Chemicals Croda International Plc Johnson Matthey Plc Victrex Plc Construction & Materials Balfour Beatty Plc Kier Group Plc Keller Group Plc Morgan Sindall Group Plc Electronic & Electrical Equipment Halma Plc Renishaw Plc Spectris Plc Forestry & Paper Mondi Plc General Industrials Cookson Group Plc Rexam Plc Smiths Group Plc Industrial Engineering Rotork Plc Mining Randgold Resources Ltd Software & Computer Services Aveva Group Plc Misys Ltd Sage Group Plc/The Support Services Carillion Plc Electrocomponents Plc Interserve Plc Mitie Group Plc Premier Farnell Plc Rps Group Plc Rentokil Initial Plc Shanks Group Plc Serco Group Plc Technology Hardware & Equipment Laird Plc Index Weight (%) 21.85 8.38 0.21 3.45 2.83 0.69 5.92 0.37 11.56 2.29 8.54 0.74 5.61 4.31 0.29 0.90 0.10 4.96 1.31 0.68 2.97 5.50 5.50 19.60 5.22 6.05 8.32 1.40 1.40 3.62 3.62 7.95 2.12 1.46 4.37 16.31 2.48 2.03 0.58 1.28 2.08 0.60 3.01 0.38 3.87 1.63 1.63

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

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November 14, 2012

Europe

Exhibit 35: UK Housing (GSTWUKHO)


UK Housing Long (GSTCUHOL)
Company Name Automobiles & Parts Gkn Plc General Retailers Brown (N) Group Plc Carpetright Plc Dunelm Group Plc Halfords Group Plc Home Retail Group Kingfisher Plc Household Goods Barratt Developments Plc Berkeley Group Holdings Bovis Homes Group Plc Bellway Plc Persimmon Plc Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc Redrow Plc Taylor Wimpey Plc Media Rightmove Plc Personal Goods Pz Cussons Plc Support Services Travis Perkins Plc Wolseley Plc Index Weight (%) 8.16 8.16 24.35 1.64 2.01 0.16 2.18 10.39 7.96 48.56 7.63 4.43 4.05 5.60 11.02 3.15 1.93 10.75 1.42 1.42 0.45 0.45 17.07 6.63 10.44 Company Name Aerospace & Defence Bae Systems Plc Chemring Group Plc Cobham Plc Hampson Industries Plc Meggitt Plc Qinetiq Group Plc Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc Ultra Electronics Hldgs Plc Alternative Energy Pv Crystalox Solar Plc Chemicals Croda International Plc Elementis Plc Johnson Matthey Plc Victrex Plc Construction & Materials Balfour Beatty Plc Kier Group Plc Keller Group Plc Morgan Sindall Group Plc Gas, Water & Multiutilities Centrica Plc National Grid Plc United Utilities Group Plc General Industrials Cookson Group Plc Smiths Group Plc

UK Housing Short (GSTCUHOS)


Index Weight (%) 10.87 5.02 0.27 1.01 0.00 0.58 0.58 2.90 0.51 0.12 0.12 10.57 2.68 0.25 6.92 0.72 5.31 3.89 0.34 1.00 0.09 15.00 5.54 6.32 3.14 11.32 4.73 6.59 Company Name Life Insurance Index Weight (%) 20.50 Aviva Plc 6.90 2.66 Legal & General Grou Old Mutual Plc 1.95 Prudential Plc 5.79 Standard Life Plc 2.74 St James'S Place Plc 0.46 9.59 0.69 Daily Mail&General Ts Euromoney Instl Inves 0.07 Hibu Plc 0.02 Informa Plc 0.90 Pearson Plc 3.07 Reed Elsevier Plc 3.61 Ubm Plc 1.22 10.89 Anglo American Plc 2.17 Antofagasta Plc 0.55 Bhp Billiton Plc 3.99 Eurasian Natural Res 0.19 Kazakhmys Plc 0.27 Rio Tinto Plc 2.37 0.39 Vedanta Resources P 2.99 Rsa Insurance Group 2.99 2.86 Carillion Plc 2.30 Interserve Plc 0.56

Media

Mining

Nonlife Insurance Support Services

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

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November 14, 2012

Europe

Exhibit 36: UK Cyclical Growth (GSTWUKGR)


UK Cyclical Growth Long (GSTCUGRL)
Company Name Aerospace & Defence Senior Plc Electronic & Electrical Equipment Halma Plc Morgan Crucible Company Plc Renishaw Plc Spectris Plc Forestry & Paper Mondi Plc General Industrials Cookson Group Plc Smiths Group Plc Industrial Engineering Bodycote Plc Fenner Plc Imi Plc Rotork Plc Spirax-Sarco Engineering Plc Weir Group Plc/The Industrial Metals Ferrexpo Plc Industrial Transportation Wincanton Plc Media Aegis Group Plc Wpp Plc Index Weight (%) 0.31 0.31 4.21 0.73 0.36 0.80 2.32 0.07 0.07 11.51 1.71 9.79 5.51 0.69 0.32 1.19 1.49 0.65 1.16 0.87 0.87 0.17 0.17 13.86 2.02 11.84 Company Name Mining Aquarius Platinum Ltd Gem Diamonds Ltd Hochschild Mining Plc Lonmin Plc Software & Computer Services Aveva Group Plc Invensys Plc Logica Plc Micro Focus International Misys Ltd Sage Group Plc/The Support Services Ashtead Group Plc Bunzl Plc Filtrona Plc Northgate Plc Speedy Hire Plc Sig Plc Travis Perkins Plc Wolseley Plc Technology Hardware & Equipmen Arm Holdings Plc Csr Plc Laird Plc Spirent Communications Plc Travel & Leisure Firstgroup Plc Go-Ahead Group Plc Stagecoach Group Plc Index Weight (%) 4.50 0.44 0.13 0.37 3.57 18.49 1.56 5.93 6.16 0.58 1.04 3.24 21.84 0.90 2.67 0.82 0.36 0.29 0.89 6.21 9.70 12.78 6.33 3.71 2.08 0.67 5.86 2.98 0.77 2.11

UK Cyclical Growth Short (GSTCUGRS)


Company Name Beverages Britvic Plc Diageo Plc Sabmiller Plc Fixed Line Telecommunications Bt Group Plc Colt Group Sa Cable & Wireless Communicati Food & Drug Retailers Wm Morrison Supermarkets Sainsbury (J) Plc Tesco Plc Household Goods Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc Media British Sky Broadcasting Gro Itv Plc Mobile Telecommunications Inmarsat Plc Vodafone Group Plc Personal Goods Burberry Group Plc Pz Cussons Plc Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Astrazeneca Plc Glaxosmithkline Plc Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc Shire Plc Tobacco British American Tobacco Plc Imperial Tobacco Group Plc Travel & Leisure Marston'S Plc Index Weight (%) 15.21 2.17 6.79 6.24 8.26 6.11 0.29 1.86 10.87 2.46 2.81 5.60 6.15 6.15 11.18 5.25 5.93 13.49 7.02 6.47 5.66 5.18 0.48 14.91 7.09 6.62 0.35 0.85 13.26 7.65 5.61 1.02 1.02

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

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November 14, 2012

Europe

Exhibit 37: EU Consumer Growth (GSTWEUCG)


EU Consumer Growth Long (GSTCECGL)
Company Name Automobiles & Parts Bayerische Motoren Werke Ag Daimler Ag-Registered Shares Valeo Sa Michelin (Cgde) Nokian Renkaat Oyj Porsche Automobil Hldg-Prf Renault Sa Peugeot Sa Banks Banco De Valencia Sa Valiant Holding Ag-Reg Construction & Materials Ferrovial Sa General Retailers Arcandor Ag Hennes & Mauritz Ab-B Shs Inditex Ppr Household Goods Electrolux Ab-Ser B Husqvarna Ab-B Shs Industrial Transportation Rieter Holding Ag-Reg Kloeckner & Co Se Abertis Infraestructuras Sa Adp Fraport Ag Index Weight (%) 16.17 2.78 4.31 3.91 2.47 1.09 0.58 0.85 0.19 0.12 0.02 0.10 0.97 0.97 17.04 0.01 6.24 4.94 5.85 8.32 5.26 3.06 9.74 1.78 2.98 0.11 2.39 2.48 Company Name Media Lagardere S.C.A. Reed Elsevier Nv Sanoma Oyj Wolters Kluwer Personal Goods Beiersdorf Ag L'Oreal Oriflame Cosmetics Sa-Sdr Puma Se Software & Computer Services Atos Cap Gemini Indra Sistemas Sa Support Services Grafton Group Plc-Uts Technology Hardware & Equipment Alcatel-Lucent Ericsson Lm-B Shs Nokia Oyj Travel & Leisure Accor Sa Air France-Klm Deutsche Lufthansa-Reg Ryanair Holdings Plc Sodexo Tui Ag Index Weight (%) 6.10 1.64 2.42 0.41 1.63 8.96 1.15 5.36 0.46 1.99 6.59 1.78 4.00 0.81 0.05 0.05 4.01 0.39 1.08 2.54 21.92 5.38 3.32 2.25 2.24 5.99 2.74 Company Name Beverages Anheuser-Busch Inbev Nv Carlsberg As-B C&C Group Plc Heineken Nv Heineken Holding Nv Pernod-Ricard Sa Chemicals Bayer Ag-Reg Fixed Line Telecommunications Belgacom Sa Elisa Oyj France Telecom Sa Hellenic Telecommun Organiza Koninklijke Kpn Nv Swisscom Ag-Reg Telefonica Sa Food & Drug Retailers Koninklijke Ahold Nv Carrefour Sa Casino Guichard Perrachon Colruyt Sa Delhaize Group Kesko Oyj-B Shs Metro Ag Food Producers Danone Csm Kerry Group Plc-A Lindt & Spruengli Ag-Reg Nestle Sa-Reg Unilever Nv-Cva

EU Consumer Growth Short (GSTCECGS)


Index Weight (%) 25.01 6.98 4.18 0.06 5.81 2.07 5.91 2.66 2.66 6.16 0.24 0.13 1.51 0.31 0.62 0.32 3.03 17.74 4.88 4.71 2.18 1.88 1.68 0.87 1.54 9.98 1.68 0.16 0.26 0.19 5.33 2.36 Company Name Health Care Equipment & Services Coloplast-B Essilor International Fresenius Medical Care Ag & Mobile Telecommunications Deutsche Telekom Ag-Reg Mobistar Sa Telenor Asa Tele2 Ab-B Shs Teliasonera Ab Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Meda Ab-A Shs Merck Kgaa Novartis Ag-Reg Novo Nordisk A/S-B Roche Holding Ag-Genusschein Sanofi Stada Arzneimittel Ag Ucb Sa Tobacco Swedish Match Ab Index Weight (%) 13.61 2.56 6.26 4.79 6.00 2.34 2.28 0.52 0.19 0.67 13.95 0.07 0.29 4.68 1.06 4.69 2.90 0.10 0.17 4.89 4.89

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

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Europe

Exhibit 38: EU Consumer Rotation (GSTWEUCR)


EU Consumer Rotation Long (GSTCECRL)
Company Name Automobiles & Parts Bayerische Motoren Werke Ag Continental Ag Daimler Ag-Registered Shares Valeo Sa Michelin (Cgde) Nokian Renkaat Oyj Porsche Automobil Hldg-Prf Renault Sa Peugeot Sa Banks Banco De Valencia Sa Valiant Holding Ag-Reg Construction & Materials Ferrovial Sa General Retailers Arcandor Ag Hennes & Mauritz Ab-B Shs Inditex Ppr Household Goods Electrolux Ab-Ser B Husqvarna Ab-B Shs Industrial Engineering Rieter Holding Ag-Reg Industrial Metals Kloeckner & Co Se Industrial Transportation Abertis Infraestructuras Sa Adp Fraport Ag Media Lagardere S.C.A. Reed Elsevier Nv Sanoma Oyj Wolters Kluwer Personal Goods Beiersdorf Ag L'Oreal Oriflame Cosmetics Sa-Sdr Puma Se Software & Computer Services Atos Cap Gemini Indra Sistemas Sa Support Services Grafton Group Plc-Uts Technology Hardware & Equipment Alcatel-Lucent Ericsson Lm-B Shs Nokia Oyj Travel & Leisure Accor Sa Air France-Klm Deutsche Lufthansa-Reg Opap Sa Ryanair Holdings Plc Sodexo Tui Ag Index Weight (%) 19.04 2.58 4.09 4.00 3.63 2.28 1.00 0.52 0.77 0.17 0.10 0.02 0.08 0.89 0.89 15.83 0.01 5.80 4.58 5.44 7.71 4.88 2.83 1.65 1.65 2.76 2.76 5.09 0.09 2.70 2.30 5.62 1.51 2.24 0.37 1.51 8.29 1.06 4.98 0.42 1.84 6.10 1.64 3.71 0.75 0.06 0.06 3.71 0.36 0.99 2.37 23.15 5.00 3.07 2.07 2.85 2.07 5.57 2.52 Company Name Aerospace & Defence Eads Nv Thales Sa Mtu Aero Engines Holding Ag Zodiac Aerospace Alternative Energy Global Pvq Se Renewable Energy Corp Asa Solarworld Ag Automobiles & Parts Rheinmetall Ag Chemicals Air Liquide Sa Akzo Nobel Basf Se Clariant Ag-Reg Koninklijke Dsm Nv Givaudan-Reg Linde Ag Lanxess Ag Solvay Sa Symrise Ag Umicore Wacker Chemie Ag Construction & Materials Acs Actividades Cons Y Serv Acciona Sa Koninklijke Bam Groep Nv Boskalis Westminster Vinci Sa Bouygues Sa Fomento De Construc Y Contra Flsmidth & Co A/S Hochtief Ag Sika Ag-Br Skanska Ab-B Shs Yit Oyj Electronic & Electrical Equipment Legrand Sa Nexans Sa Schneider Electric Sa

EU Consumer Rotation Short (GSTCECRS)


Index Weight (%) 10.51 6.09 2.32 0.93 1.16 0.82 0.05 0.44 0.33 0.16 0.16 33.55 4.83 4.59 6.20 0.78 5.50 1.75 4.82 0.74 1.39 0.78 1.62 0.55 12.55 0.66 0.39 0.23 0.42 4.98 2.83 0.13 0.49 0.37 1.03 0.69 0.33 7.33 0.70 0.54 6.09 Company Name Financial Services Index Weight (%) 0.39 Wendel 0.39 Forestry & Paper 9.04 Holmen Ab-B Shares 0.89 Stora Enso Oyj-R Shs 3.56 Upm-Kymmene Oyj 4.59 General Industrials 9.54 Orkla Asa 0.84 Koninklijke Philips Elec 3.44 Siemens Ag-Reg 5.26 Industrial Engineering 0.78 Outotec Oyj 0.23 Sgl Carbon Se 0.55 Personal Goods 4.71 Svenska Cellulosa Ab4.71 Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnolog 1.17 Novozymes A/S-B Sha 1.17 Software & Computer Services 8.15 0.99 Dassault Systemes Sa Sap Ag 6.19 Wincor Nixdorf Ag 0.97 Support Services 0.55 Bilfinger Se 0.33 Royal Imtech Nv 0.22 Technology Hardware & Equipment 0.76 Neopost Sa 0.76

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

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Europe

Exhibit 39: EU Cyclical Growth (GSTWEUGR)


EU Cyclical Growth Long (GSTCEGRL)
Company Name Alternative Energy Gamesa Corp Tecnologica Sa Vestas Wind Systems A/S Automobiles & Parts Bayerische Motoren Werke Ag Daimler Ag-Registered Shares Valeo Sa Porsche Automobil Hldg-Prf Rheinmetall Ag Renault Sa Peugeot Sa Chemicals Arkema Akzo Nobel Basf Se Lanxess Ag Solvay Sa Construction & Materials Assa Abloy Ab-B Geberit Ag-Reg Kingspan Group Plc Compagnie De Saint-Gobain Electronic & Electrical Equipment Hexagon Ab-B Shs Nkt Holding A/S Financial Services Wendel Forestry & Paper Holmen Ab-B Shares Stora Enso Oyj-R Shs Upm-Kymmene Oyj General Industrials Orkla Asa Koninklijke Philips Electron Siemens Ag-Reg Thyssenkrupp Ag Industrial Engineering Abb Ltd-Reg Alfa Laval Ab Alstom Atlas Copco Ab-A Shs Cargotec Oyj-B Share Fischer (Georg)-Reg Gea Group Ag Konecranes Oyj Kone Oyj-B Man Se Metso Oyj Oc Oerlikon Corp Ag-Reg Rieter Holding Ag-Reg Sandvik Ab Schindler Holding-Part Cert Scania Ab-B Shs Skf Ab-B Shares Sulzer Ag-Reg Tognum Ag Vallourec Volvo Ab-B Shs Wartsila Oyj Abp Index Weight (%) 0.75 0.19 0.56 7.59 0.53 2.02 3.62 0.48 0.08 0.72 0.15 14.61 7.93 1.19 4.50 0.34 0.64 4.98 1.17 0.93 0.08 2.80 0.35 0.27 0.08 0.18 0.18 4.12 0.41 1.62 2.09 7.42 0.39 2.53 3.69 0.82 19.96 3.60 0.26 1.10 0.64 0.06 0.08 0.29 0.21 0.32 0.66 0.23 0.99 1.63 0.90 0.58 2.05 0.41 0.22 0.09 0.60 4.67 0.36 Company Name Industrial Metals Acerinox Sa Kloeckner & Co Se Arcelormittal Norsk Hydro Asa Outokumpu Oyj Rautaruukki Oyj Ssab Ab-A Shares Salzgitter Ag Industrial Transportation Dsv A/S Media Jc Decaux Sa Publicis Groupe Personal Goods Svenska Cellulosa Ab-B Shs Software & Computer Services Dassault Systemes Sa Sap Ag Support Services Grafton Group Plc-Uts Technology Hardware & Equipment Alcatel-Lucent Asml Holding Nv Ericsson Lm-B Shs Nokia Oyj Index Weight (%) 10.82 0.12 2.76 2.89 4.38 0.13 0.11 0.18 0.26 5.45 5.45 5.97 1.03 4.94 2.14 2.14 6.22 0.45 5.77 0.06 0.06 9.38 0.33 6.49 0.96 1.59

EU Cyclical Growth Short (GSTCEGRS)


Company Name Beverages Anheuser-Busch Inbev Nv Carlsberg As-B C&C Group Plc Heineken Nv Heineken Holding Nv Pernod-Ricard Sa Chemicals Bayer Ag-Reg Fixed Line Telecommunications Belgacom Sa Elisa Oyj France Telecom Sa Hellenic Telecommun Organiza Koninklijke Kpn Nv Swisscom Ag-Reg Telefonica Sa Food & Drug Retailers Koninklijke Ahold Nv Carrefour Sa Casino Guichard Perrachon Colruyt Sa Delhaize Group Kesko Oyj-B Shs Metro Ag Food Producers Danone Csm Kerry Group Plc-A Lindt & Spruengli Ag-Reg Nestle Sa-Reg Unilever Nv-Cva Health Care Equipment & Services Coloplast-B Essilor International Fresenius Medical Care Ag & Mobile Telecommunications Deutsche Telekom Ag-Reg Mobistar Sa Telenor Asa Tele2 Ab-B Shs Teliasonera Ab Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Meda Ab-A Shs Merck Kgaa Novartis Ag-Reg Novo Nordisk A/S-B Roche Holding Ag-Genusschein Sanofi Stada Arzneimittel Ag Ucb Sa Tobacco Swedish Match Ab Index Weight (%) 24.78 6.87 4.19 0.06 5.79 2.06 5.80 2.66 2.66 6.20 0.24 0.13 1.52 0.31 0.63 0.32 3.04 17.57 4.82 4.59 2.23 1.90 1.68 0.86 1.50 10.05 1.69 0.16 0.26 0.20 5.39 2.35 13.62 2.53 6.19 4.90 6.01 2.34 2.28 0.54 0.19 0.66 14.18 0.08 0.29 4.82 1.07 4.72 2.95 0.10 0.16 4.93 4.93

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

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Equity baskets disclosure


The Securities Division of the firm may have been consulted as to the various components of the baskets of securities discussed in this report prior to their launch; however, none of this research, the conclusions expressed herein, nor the timing of this report was shared with the Securities Division.

Other disclosures
An investment fund managed by Goldman Sachs owns significant equity interests in Groupe Eurotunnel SA and representatives of Goldman Sachs hold two seats on the companys board of directors. Goldman Sachs may have other business relationships with the company.

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Disclosure Appendix

Reg AC
We, Matthieu Walterspiler, Gerald Moser, Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA, Peter Oppenheimer and Sharon Bell, CFA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

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