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Northern Offshore is a Bermuda-based, Oslo-exchange listed company with operations in offshore drilling and floating production. The Company's main asset is the Northern Producer, a Floating Production Facility (FPF) currently operating in the Galley Field of the UK north sea.
Northern Offshore is a Bermuda-based, Oslo-exchange listed company with operations in offshore drilling and floating production. The Company's main asset is the Northern Producer, a Floating Production Facility (FPF) currently operating in the Galley Field of the UK north sea.
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Northern Offshore is a Bermuda-based, Oslo-exchange listed company with operations in offshore drilling and floating production. The Company's main asset is the Northern Producer, a Floating Production Facility (FPF) currently operating in the Galley Field of the UK north sea.
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Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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Value in the Galley Field ! ! ! ! ! ! Company Description:! Northern Offshore Ltd. (NOF NO: NOK0.75) is a Bermuda-based, Oslo-exchange listed company with operations in offshore drilling and floating production. The Company's main asset is the Northern Producer, a Floating Production Facility (FPF) currently operating in the Galley Field of the UK North Sea under contract to Talisman Energy nc. (TLM) through January 2005 - TLM acquired its 67.4% interest in the Galley Field as operator from ChevronTexaco Corp. (CVX) in January 2003. n addition, Northern Offshore owns the Energy Searcher, a drillship (acquired in June 2001 for $37 mm) capable of drilling in up to 2,500 ft. water. n January 2004, the Company sold a cold-stacked drillship, the Northern Explorer II, for $2.1 mm. Northern Offshore's remaining three rigs are also cold-stacked and include two drillships (the Northern Explorer III and the Discover I) and a 2nd generation semi-submersible drilling rig, the Galaxy Driller.! ! Recommendation:! We recommend Northern Offshore Ltd.'s 10% Sr. Notes '05 ("Sr. Notes or "10s) as a Strong Buy at 40 and have a 59 price target (PV20 of 80% future recovery) based on the expectation that TLM and Northern Offshore will negotiate a win-win contract for the Northern Producer that will extend to 2009, in parallel with the Galley Field's economic life. n fact, a February 8, 2004 news article referring to the Northern Producer's contract entitled "Talisman bags Galley nterest stated that, A well informed source said a two-year or five-year extension is in the cards. The same article went on to say that "Talisman is also expected to install a water injection line between its Tartan platform and Galley to maintain reservoir pressure as well as a control umbilical. The tie-in of the water injection line is significant since it solidifies TLM's commitment to utilize the most economical, lowest-risk solution for its Galley Field - the Northern Producer.
As a result of a new contract and the Company's inability to meet the $20 mm Floating Sr. Notes maturity in October 2004, we expect the Company to restructure. And although NOF's advisors have indicated to the Board that the value for the Company's Unsecured creditors can be best preserved through a conversion of all unsecured debt into equity, we believe the Unsecured HoIders wiII receive the foIIowing: (i) $100 mm in New 11% Sr. Secured Notes due 12/31/09; and (ii) 70% of the restructured company's equity (Recommended Restructuring). This restructuring concept provides Unsecured HoIders an 80%-92% recovery based on the stock's current market price and NAV, respectiveIy. Additionally, we anticipate that the New Secured Notes will amortize $21 mm over its 5-year term (based on a cash sweep of any quarter- end balance exceeding $12 mm) to a $79 mm balance at maturity in 2009.
We would ignore the Company's attempt to influence its position by means of the uncertainty surrounding the Northern Producer's employment - this is a poker game where investors must look to the attractive economics of the Galley Field for the ace. n doing so, we estimate investors wiII attain a 20.7%-26.3% IRR based on our Recommended Restructuring as detaiIed herein. Additionally, buying the Unsecured Debt (includes the Floating Sr. Notes) at 40, creates the Company at $75.6 mm or 2.8x LTM EBTDA, a deep discount to the public comparables which trade at an average 17.8x LTM EBTDA.
Amt. O/S Coupon Jefco Seniority Coupon Maturity $MM Rating Date Price Price CY YTW STW Yrs. Pmts. Rec. Sr. Nts. (1) 10.000% 5/15/05 $143.2 C/NR 5/15/04 100.00 40.00 25.0% 119.5% 11,827 1.1 11/15,5/15 Strong Buy (1) Original issue amount was $340.0 mm; the Company repurchased the balance of 10% Sr. Notes in the open market from 1998 through 2001 at a weighted average price of 57.7% (average prices range from 49.4% to 71.8%). YieId to Worst Next CaII March 30, 2004! [Page 2 of 16] We believe the 10s are trading at a depressed level for several reasons, among them there is the $166 mm of 10% Sr. Notes securing the Avalon Loan ($4.3 mm outstanding) that were repurchased in the open market. As such, some investors account for $309.5 mm of 10s outstanding in their liquidation recovery analysis instead of the $143.2 mm that we consider outstanding. Our analysis is based on the expectation that the Avalon Loan would be fully repaid in a liquidation, which would release the Notes as collateral. n liquidation, the recovery on these Notes becomes an asset of the Company and ultimately, an asset of the Unsecured Holders. Effectively, therefore, these Sr. Notes securing the Avalon Notes would be cancelled and should not be accounted for in a liquidation analysis. n order to successfully execute a restructuring, we expect Noteholders will require that the Company cancel these Sr. Notes that secure the Avalon debt in addition to the New Secured Notes containing strong covenants that, among other items, restrict the Company from making equity investments as well as incurring corporate debt.
Even if we are wrong and the Company does Iiquidate, we beIieve the Sr. Notes' future recovery is 44%, which provides a 10% return based on the 10s current trading IeveI. We find it of interest that as we are about to publish this report, NOF filed its 2002 20-F it just doesn't seem logical that a company would suddenly issue its 2002 report if it planned to liquidate. ! Quarterly Highlights:! FinanciaI Performance: Northern Offshore reported $6.8 mm in 4Q03 EBTDA, which was down slightly from the prior year's $7.0 mm, but represented a 22% sequential improvement compared to the $5.6 mm reported in the 3Q03. Last quarter annualized (LQA) EBTDA was $27.2 mm based on 4Q03, and the $26.6 mm of LTM EBTDA was essentially flat vs. $26.8 mm in the prior quarter. The Company repaid $3.5 mm of debt in the quarter, reducing total debt to $173.6 mm. Cash and working capital at year-end were $6.4 mm and $10.8 mm, respectively. Applying working capital to total debt defines net debt of $162.8 mm. Proforma for the January 2004 sale of the Northern Explorer II for $2.1 mm ($2.0 mm after fees), cash and working capital increases to $8.4 mm and $12.9 mm, respectively, and as a result, net debt declines to $160.8 mm. Due to the Company's non-existent CapEx, Northern Offshore generated approximately $2.3 mm in free cash flow before working capital changes in 4Q03 and $8.3 mm on an LTM basis.! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Credit Statistics: The Company's 4Q03 EBTDA covered cash interest expense 1.5x (1.5x LTM), while total debt to LQA EBTDA was 6.4x (6.6x LTM) and net debt leverage was 6.0x (6.1x LTM).
GaIIey FieId Production: The Northern Producer's 4Q03 production averaged 11,936 Barrels of Oil Equivalent per day (BOEpd) from the Galley Field in the UK North Sea. Production was down 6% and 21% sequentially and year-over-year, respectively, when compared to the 12,661 BOEpd and 15,036 BOEpd production rates.
Coupon Payment: The Company paid the $7.2 mm November 15, 2003 coupon payment on the 10% Sr. Notes '05 in December 2003, during the 30-day grace period. ! ! Capital Structure:! Northern Offshore's total debt was $173.6 mm at 12/31/03, consisting of $10.3 mm in secured debt and $163.3 mm in Unsecured Notes (Floating Sr. Notes and Sr. Notes).
QuarterIy EBITDA $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 March 30, 2004! [Page 3 of 16] AvaIon Loan: The $4.3 mm outstanding under the Avalon Loan is collateralized by approximately $166.3 mm of the 10% Sr. Notes '05 (noted in 1Q03 press release). The repurchases of 10s in 2000 were partly financed by the Avalon Loan, which has been paid down from an original $30 mm balance. The lender, Avalon Holding Ltd. is an affiliate of Osprey Maritime Ltd, which owned 53.8 mm or 51.4% (at 12/31/03) of the Company's outstanding common shares and is 99.3% owned by World Shipholding Ltd., a subsidiary of! Greenwich Holdings, Ltd. (indirectly controlled by John Fredriksen). Of interest, World Shipholding Ltd. relinquished its majority ownership position by selling 5.2 mm shares of NOF NO on 3/4/04 at NOK 1.35 per share. The question is, why would an investor pay almost $1mm (NOK 7 mm) for stock after the Company stated in its 4Q03 press release (issued 3/1/04) that ".equity holders would be expected to receive no value in a liquidation.
Post the share sale, World Shipholding holds 52.2 mm shares or 49.97% of shares outstanding. We believe this sale opens the door to a restructuring as we expect Unsecured Holders will, as part of the expected restructuring, receive a majority equity interest in the Company and as such, require a shareholders' vote.
BNP Loan: The BNP Loan is secured by the Energy Searcher, a drillship (acquired in June 2001 for $37 mm) capable of drilling in up to 2,500 ft. water this loan was paid down from its $11 m issue amount to the $6.0 mm balance at year-end 2003.
Maturities: The Company has $30.4 mm of maturities in 2004 ($10.3 mm in June and $20.1 mm in October) and the $143.2 mm of 10% Sr. Notes maturing in 2005.! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Restructuring Sources & Uses: Due to the Company's 2004 maturities totaling over $30 mm, we expect Northern Offshore will restructure its $163.3 mm of Unsecured Notes. Our 2004 EBTDA estimate is $24.2 mm-$27.9 mm; the upper-end of the range representing the scenario in which the Energy Searcher receives a 4Q04 contract at $50,000 per day, while the low-end assumes the rig sits idle during that three-month period. ncluding the $8.4 mm in proforma cash, we expect the Company's 2004 sources total $32.6 mm-$36.3 mm. Since CapEx is almost non-existent ($0.1 mm in 2003 and $1.1 mm 2004E), we calculate that during 2004, the Company would be able to fund its $16.2 mm in cash interest (on all currently outstanding debt) and $10.3 mm in secured maturities. Northern Offshore, however, will need to restructure since it faces a shortfall in meeting its $20.1 mm (NOK 139.7 mm) Floating Sr. Notes (Floating Notes) maturity on 10/6/04 our model shows an $11.3 mm-$15.0 mm deficiency based on the expected $5.0 mm-$8.7 mm cash balance at year-end prior to the Floating Notes maturity.
CAPITAL STRUCTURE 12/31/03 Adj. Proforma Avalon Loan (LBOR+650) (1) 7.548% 6/1/04 $4.3 -- $4.3 BNP Loan (LBOR+200) (2,3) 7.048% 6/1/04 $6.0 -- $6.0 Secured Debt 7.256% $10.3 -- $10.3 Sr. Nts. 10.000% 5/15/05 $143.2 -- $143.2 Sr. Nts. NOK139.7 mm (NBOR+550) (4) 7.400% 10/6/04 $20.1 -- $20.1 Unsecured Debt 9.680% $163.3 -- $163.3 TotaI Debt 9.537% $173.6 -- $173.6 Preferred Stock -- -- -- Debt & Preferred $173.6 -- $173.6 Shareholders' Equity ($38.3) $2.0 ($36.3) TotaI CapitaIization $135.3 $2.0 $137.3 Cash $6.4 $2.0 $8.4 Working CapitaI $10.8 $2.0 $12.9 (1) Secured by Energy Searcher. (2) Secured by USD$166.3 mm of outstanding 10% Sr. Nts. '05. (3) Coupon includes 400 bps for the guarantee provided by Avalon. (4) Assumes exchange rate of NOK 6.96/USD. March 30, 2004! [Page 4 of 16] Restructuring: One restructuring concept is to simply extend the maturity of the Unsecured Notes to be determined by a new Northern Producer contract we expect the Company and Talisman to finalize this summer or earlier. f the Unsecured Notes remained outstanding and the maturity date was extended to 12/31/09, for instance, we estimate the Company could meet its financial commitments based solely on the Northern Producer's operations the weak credit statistics (interest coverage below 1.0x and total debt leverage above 11.0x), however, are unacceptable and would continue to hinder the Northern Offshore story going forward. As more fully described below, our Recommended Restructuring for the Unsecured HoIders incIudes the foIIowing: (i) $100 mm in New 11% Sr. Secured Notes due 12/31/09; and (ii) 70% of the restructured company's equity (243.2 mm shares) - the New Secured Debt alone represents a 61% recovery based on the $163 mm of Unsecured Notes outstanding. We also believe this is positive for existing shareholders and would be well received noting this group would retain a 30% equity interest in the restructured company, a dramatic improvement from the Company's recent press release that stated, ".equity holders would be expected to receive no value in a liquidation.
We effectively assume new stock is issued to Unsecured holders at NOK 1.45 or $0.21 per share, which is equal to our Upside Case NAV (based 347.9 mm common shares outstanding post restructuring) this is a 94% premium to the current NOK 0.75 stock price (equal to our Base Case NAV post restructuring). ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Advisors: The Company's advisors have indicated to the Board that the value for the Company's unsecured creditors can be best preserved through a conversion of all unsecured debt into equity. The Board has had informal discussions with several of the Company's main creditors, including certain US bondholders, regarding the potential restructuring of the Company's existing debt obligations. The Board intends to initiate formal discussions regarding such a debt-for-equity exchange with the Company's unsecured creditors during 2Q04. A Norwegian newspaper (Aftenposten) reported on 3/3/04 that Norwegian investor, Kristian Siem, may convert his Notes into equity.
A Poker Game: Although Northern Offshore seeks to exchange all unsecured debt into equity, we believe the Company is using the uncertainty surrounding the Northern Producer employment beyond 2004 to negotiate the most favorable restructuring and/or repurchase a portion or all of the 10s outstanding at the lowest price possible. We contend that the Company is purely playing a formidable poker game. n fact, market rumors were that the Company or one of its affiliates recently bid for all the 10s in and around the 30-price level. ! RESTRUCTURING CALCULATION EBITDA METHOD: LTM EBTDA $26.6 EV/LTM EBTDA 40% 6.0x EV $159.6 -Secured Debt -- -New Sec. Debt to Unsec. Holders $100.0 +WorkCap (Proforma) $12.9 Net Asset VaIue (NAV) $72.5 Debt-for-Equity Exchange Unsecured Debt O/S $163.3 New Sec. Debt to Unsec. Holders $100.0 Remaining Unsecured Debt VaIue $63.3 % of Equity Value Assigned to Unsecured 80% Equity VaIue Assigned to Unsecured $50.6 % of NAV Assigned to Unsecured 70% Shares & Share Price Existing NOF NO Share O/S 104.7 New NOF NO Shares ssued in Exchange 242.3 NOF NO Shares O/S Post Restructure 347.0 NAV per Share - USD $0.21 Exchange Rate (NOK/USD) NOK 6.96 NAV per Share - NOK NOK 1.45 March 30, 2004! [Page 5 of 16] ! New Contract Expected: We are confident Talisman will negotiate a new contract for the Northern Producer since there is only downside risk to replacing the FPF that has been in place since the Field's startup in March 1998. There is no real incentive to replace the Northern Producer with a similar FPF due to the associated costs to outfit the facility with equipment already in place plus any mobilization costs a replacement would most likely require the five-year remaining field life makes such a switch even more inhibitive as these costs would dramatically alter the Galley Field's economics if such costs were allocated over this relatively short time period. Most importantly, replacing the Northern Producer would pose a risk to the reservoir in addition to the time value of money related to shutting-in production for the transition period it is simply illogical for TLM not to employ the Northern Producer beyond its 2004 contract expiration. Additionally, the Company is willing to negotiate a reduced dayrate on a long-term basis, which will enhance the Field's economics and life. TLM will also most likely mitigate the Field's oil price sensitivity by locking-in historically high oil prices via production hedges ($31.80/Bbl. NYMEX 2- year forward curve average and $35.45/Bbl NYMEX spot price), further ensuring the Northern Producer will remain employed through 2009.
Although we concur that Talisman will most likely negotiate a new contract that is more favorable from its perspective than the one-year option periods from 2004-2008 in place (!56,500 dayrate plus a $1.25 tariff - the British Pound denominated rate translates to nearly $103,000 at today's $1.82/! exchange rate), we do expect that the new dayrate schedule will be a win-win. We expect the dayrate component under a new contract will most likely be negotiated down to an initial $80,000 level for the years 2005 through 2007 and then decline to $70,000 per day in 2008 and $60,000 in 2009 in order to enhance the Galley Field's life. These dayrates provide TLM with positive cash flow at varying oil prices through 2009, and at the same time allow Northern Offshore to comfortably fund its operations under the Recommended Restructuring. ! Asset Value We provide the basis for our asset valuations at 12/31/04 in a Low, Base, and High Cases as presented below. The Company's main asset in terms of cash flow and asset value is the Northern Producer. The FPF's asset value is derived in two parts; first we determined the residual value at 2x-4x the market EBTDA ([$80,000 dayrate - $35,000 Opex - $1,500 management fee]*98% utilization rate), estimated to be $15.3 mm annually or $31 mm- $61 mm. On top of that, we layered the PV10 of the expected new Talisman contract and arrived at a total value for the Northern Producer ranging from $92 mm-$124 mm based on the Field expiring in 2007 and 2009, respectively. The valuation of the Energy Searcher utilizes a market EBTDA ([$50,000 dayrate - $30,000 Opex]*80% utilization rate) at multiples ranging from 5x-8x and resulting in asset values of $18.3 mm - $29.2 mm. We believe this analysis to be conservative relative to the public comparables trading at an average 17.8x LTM EBTDA. ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ASSET VALUE @ 12/31/04 Low Base High Contract Term Expiration 12/31/04 12/31/07 12/31/09 Northern Producer - Contract Value (2005+) -- $47.0 $62.8 Northern Producer - Est. Mkt. EBTDA $15.3 $15.3 $15.3 EBTDA Mult. 2.0x 3.0x 4.0x Norther Producer ResiduaI VaIue $30.6 $45.9 $61.2 Northern Producer - TotaI VaIue $30.6 $92.9 $124.0 Energy Searcher - Est. Mkt. EBTDA $3.7 $3.7 $3.7 EBTDA Mult. 5.0x 6.5x 8.0x Energy Searcher - TotaI VaIue $18.3 $23.7 $29.2 Active Rig VaIue (N. Producer & E. Searcher) $48.8 $116.6 $153.2 Northern Explorer $0.5 $1.5 $2.0 Galaxy Driller $0.5 $1.5 $2.0 Discover $0.5 $1.5 $2.0 TotaI Rig VaIue $50.3 $121.1 $159.2 Working Capital (12/31/04E) $13.3 $13.3 $13.3 TotaI Asset VaIue $63.6 $134.4 $172.4 March 30, 2004! [Page 6 of 16] ! ComparabIes: The below table highlights the nine comparables, which are obviously much larger, more diversified companies as well as better capitalized. The one standout, however, that we believe is most appropriate is Ocean Rig ASA (OCR NO), which trades at almost 15x LTM EBTDA and is similar to NOF NO on numerous levels including: concentration risk of two rig fleet (both 5 th Generation Semi-Submersible rigs), market risk with both rigs effectively operating in the spot market, and fragile credit statistics (1x LTM nterest coverage and 11x Total Debt/LTM EBTDA). ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Recovery Analysis f NOF executes an attractive contract with Talisman and restructures the Company along the lines of our Recommended Restructuring, we believe NOF's equity will trade above the $0.12 or NOK 0.87 NAV per share noted in our Base Case of the Restructuring Recovery analysis - represents a 80% future recovery to Unsecured holders. As that same analysis indicates, the Upside case provides a $0.21 or NOK 1.45 NAV per share, which equates to an 92% future recovery assuming the Recommended Restructuring. The one component that this recovery does not consider is the trading value of the New 11% Sr. Secured Notes '09 that we propose, which we expect would trade up to 107.6 (9% YTM) assuming the Note is secured, a new Northern Producer contract is in place, and there exist acceptable credit statistics. Accounting for the estimated trading level of the New Notes adds over 4-points to the future recovery.
The upside from there is significant based on the comparables noted above as well as NOF's historical stock price, which was as high as NOK 7.75 in January 2002 and since that date has averaged NOK 2.71. The possibility for stock price appreciation is there for a Northern Offshore remake that could be fueled by rig acquisitions funded by project debt and financial partners, which in no way dilutes the New Secured Noteholders' position. ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! COMPARABLES Northern Offshore Atwood Diamond Ensco GIobaI Ocean Pride Rowan Trans- PROFORMA Offshore Oceanics Offshore IntI. SantaFe NobIe Rig IntI. Cos. Ocean @ Mkt. @ NAV Inc. DriIIing Inc. Corp. Corp. ASA Inc. Inc. Inc. NOF NO NOF NO ATW DO ESV GSF NE OCR NO PDE RDC RIG Shares O/S 347.0 347.0 13.9 129.3 151.0 234.6 134.3 80.4 135.8 105.7 320.8 Stock Px NOK 0.75 NOK 1.45 $34.91 $24.50 $28.38 $27.49 $38.16 NOK 18.50 $16.71 $21.33 $28.23 MCap $260.2 $504.5 $483.6 $3,168.4 $4,285.3 $6,448.3 $5,123.7 NOK 1,488 $2,268.7 $2,255.1 $9,054.8 Exchange Rate (Currency/USD) NOK 6.96 NOK 6.96 NA NA NA NA NA NOK 6.96 NA NA NA MCap (USD) $37.4 $72.5 $483.6 $3,168.4 $4,285.3 $6,448.3 $5,123.7 $213.8 $2,268.7 $2,255.1 $9,054.8 Debt $100.0 $100.0 $199.0 $940.0 $572.9 $1,240.7 $589.6 $542.0 $2,034.1 $624.3 $3,658.1 Pref. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- WorkCap $12.9 $12.9 $29.5 $687.0 $339.0 $816.1 $190.8 $6.1 $16.8 $110.2 $489.0 EV $124.5 $159.6 $653.1 $3,421.4 $4,519.2 $6,872.9 $5,522.5 $749.7 $4,286.0 $2,769.3 $12,223.9 LTM EBTDA $26.6 $26.6 $34.4 $138.2 $321.5 $418.8 $365.8 $50.3 $370.6 $89.0 $758.6 EV/LTM EBITDA 4.7x 6.0x 19.0x 24.8x 14.1x 16.4x 15.1x 14.9x 11.6x 31.1x 16.1x Debt / LTM EBITDA 3.8x 3.8x 5.8x 6.8x 1.8x 3.0x 1.6x 10.8x 5.5x 7.0x 4.8x LTM EBITDA / Interest Exp. 2.7x 2.7x 6.9x 5.8x 8.8x 12.8x 9.1x 1.0x 2.8x 5.6x 3.8x All dollar figures are in millions and in USD unless noted otherwise. RESTRUCTURING RECOVERY Low Base High New Secured Debt $100.0 $100.0 $100.0 Market Price 72.4 100.0 100.0 New Sec. Debt VaIue $72.4 $100.0 $100.0 Restructured Equity VaIue -- $43.2 $72.1 New Shares O/S 347.0 347.0 347.0 USD$/Share -- $0.12 $0.21 NOK/Share NOK 0.00 NOK 0.87 NOK 1.45 Shares Owned by Old Unsec. Holders 242.3 242.3 242.3 Equity VaIue to OId Unsec. HoIders -- $30.2 $50.4 TotaI VaIue to OId Unsec. HoIders $72.4 $130.2 $150.4 Old Unsec. Debt originally O/S $163.3 $163.3 $163.3 Future Recovery 44% 80% 92% PV20 74% 33% 59% 68% PV25 69% 31% 55% 64% March 30, 2004! [Page 7 of 16] Liquidation: Of course, we recognize that liquidation, albeit an unlikely event (10% probability) in our view, is still possible and as such, provide the below analysis. Our liquidation assumptions include the following: (i) NOF operates through year-end 2004 (N. Producer contract expires 1/6/05), (ii) the Secured Debt is repaid out of operating cash flow and cash-on-hand, (iii) interest payments on all outstanding debt are ultimately paid or recovered, and (iv) the estimated $9.6 mm - $13.3 mm working capital balance is distributed to Unsecured Holders. The 44% future recovery indicated in the Low Case assumes that the Northern Producer fails to secure a new contract. If, however, NOF enters into a new contract for the Northern Producer and the assets were then soId, we beIieve the future recovery for Unsecured NotehoIders wouId be 88%-105%, which indicates a 65%-78% present vaIue assuming a 20% return is reaIized over an 18- month recovery period. ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Galley Field: Understanding the economics driving the Galley Field's reserve life is by far the most vital component to Northern Offshore in the medium term.
FieId Description: The Galley Field (the "Field) in block 15/23a of the UK North Sea, comprises a series of accumulations located approximately 100 miles northeast of Aberdeen, Scotland. To date, there has been production from two discoveries in the field, the Galley South and the Galley North. ChevronTexaco (Texaco North Sea Company) was the original operator and owned a 67.42% interest as operator with Summit Oil UK Ltd. (17.42%) and Agip Petroli (15.17%), a subsidiary of Eni SPA. n January 2004, Texaco sold its interests in the Galley Field to the Canadian company, Talisman Energy nc. (TLM), which had been expected by some North Sea sources because oil production from Galley is already tied back to TLM's Tartan platform, a key facility in Talisman's Tartan/Claymore core area. Oil is exported via a pipeline to the Tartan/Claymore network for transmission on to the Flotta oil terminal on the Orkney slands. Gas is piped via the Tartan pipeline to the Frigg gas gathering system. The Northern Producer agreement with the Company was assigned accordingly. The Field produces from three production wells, two on Phase and one on Phase .
OiI & Gas Reserves: Production under Phase of the Texaco contract began on 3/25/98. n a press release on that same day, ChevronTexaco highlighted the estimated reserves in place at 70.9 MMBOE (81% oiI). Through 12/31/03, the GaIIey FieId's accumuIated production totaIed 50.1 MMBOE (71% of the originaI estimated reserves in pIace) or 20.8 MMBOE remaining in pIace. Our reserve analysis indicates that the Field's gross production will reach 63.7 MMBOE by 12/31/09 or 90% of the original estimated reserves in place. Northern Offshore provided the average daily production rate in each of its quarterly press releases, from which we are able to estimate the Galley Field's accumulated production. LIQUIDATION RECOVERY Low Base High TotaI Asset VaIue $63.6 $134.4 $172.4 Less: Secured Debt (Proforma) -- -- -- Net VaIue AvaiI. To Unsecured Notes $63.6 $134.4 $172.4 Unsec. Notes O/S $163.3 $163.3 $163.3 VaIue to Common Equity -$99.7 -$28.9 $9.2 Shares O/S 104.7 104.7 104.7 NAV per Share - USD -$0.95 -$0.28 $0.09 Exchange Rate (NOK/USD) NOK 6.96 NOK 6.96 NOK 6.96 NAV per Share - NOK -NOK 6.63 -NOK 1.92 NOK 0.61 Shares Owned by Unsec. Notes -- -- -- TotaI Equity VaIue to Unsec. HoIders -- -- -- Value provided to Unsec. Notes $63.6 $134.4 $163.3 Coupon Payments Received (5/15/04,11/15/04)(1) $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 TotaI VaIue Received by Unsec. Notes $72.4 $143.2 $172.1 Old Unsec. Debt originally O/S $163.3 $163.3 $163.3 Future Recovery 44% 88% 105% PV20 74% 33% 65% 78% PV25 69% 31% 61% 73% (1) 5/15/04 coupon pmt. assumes 3/30/04 purchase of Notes and deducts accrued interest. March 30, 2004! [Page 8 of 16] Production: The Northern Producer's 4Q03 production averaged 11,936 BOEpd from the Galley Field in the UK North Sea. Production was down 6% and 21% sequentially and year-over-year, respectively, when compared to the 12,661 BOEpd and 15,036 BOEpd production rates. We indicate in the below graph that the production breakeven for the Field is 2,100-2,900 BOEpd using a NYMEX price of $30/Bbl and $24/Bbl, respectively. We estimate that the Galley Field wil average 2,700 BOEpd in 1Q10, which is the point at which we believe the Field terminates assuming there are no additional discoveries. ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! FieId's VaIue: We estimate the average annual decline rate for the Galley Field is 21%, consistent with the annualized 4Q03 decline rate of 5.7%. We expect that due to the attractive economics, as highlighted in the below table, the Galley Field represents nearly $191 mm of future value (FV) and more than $152 mm of PV10 (assumes $30/Bbl NYMEX oil price and a $2.00 price discount for oil quality) through 2009. Utilizing the $31.80/Bbl two-year forward curve average, the FV increases over $24 mm to $215 mm and to $171 mm on a PV10 basis. Of note, we are conservative in the price differential in that the Field's oil is a higher-grade oil (44 AP gravity) when compared to NYMEX's 40 AP gravity and should, therefore, command a premium price. The Field's valuation assumes TLM agrees to the existing $1.25/Bbl tariff and a dayrate that has an initial $80,000 dayrate that adjusts downward in 2008 and 2009 as production declines in line with the Field's economics. We refer to these dayrates as the "Dayrate Schedule going forward, which are as follows: 2005 2007: $80,000 2008: $70,000 2009: $60,000 The below table shows the Field valuation. Of note, using a $30.00/Bbl NYMEX price, the analysis indicates that the Field's life could potentially be extended to the end of 2012 in the case that NOF agrees to the following dayrates for the years 2010-2012: 2010: $60,000 2011: $50,000! 2012: $40,000! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! GALLEY FIELD ANALYSIS Tariff Exp. Yr. NYMEX ReaIized BbIs O&G Contract Assumed Effec. Operating $/BbI @ CumItve. PV @ Ended OiI Px OiI Px per Day Revenue Dayrate Dayrate Dayrate Cost $1.250 $MM $/BbI FV 10% 2004 $30.00 $28.00 10,347 $105.7 $0.103 -- $0.103 -$37.6 -$4.7 $63.5 $16.80 $63.5 $57.7 2005 $30.00 $28.00 8,149 $83.3 -- $0.080 $0.080 -$29.2 -$3.7 $50.4 $16.93 $113.8 $99.3 2006 $30.00 $28.00 6,437 $65.8 -- $0.080 $0.080 -$29.2 -$2.9 $33.6 $14.32 $147.5 $124.6 2007 $30.00 $28.00 5,084 $52.0 -- $0.080 $0.080 -$29.2 -$2.3 $20.4 $11.01 $167.9 $138.6 2008 $30.00 $28.00 4,028 $41.2 -- $0.070 $0.070 -$25.6 -$1.8 $13.8 $9.37 $181.7 $147.1 2009 $30.00 $28.00 3,172 $32.4 -- $0.060 $0.060 -$21.9 -$1.4 $9.1 $7.84 $190.8 $152.2 2010 $30.00 $28.00 2,506 $25.6 -- $0.060 $0.060 -$21.9 -$1.1 $2.6 $2.80 $193.3 $153.5 2011 $30.00 $28.00 1,979 $20.2 -- $0.050 $0.050 -$18.3 -$0.9 $1.1 $1.49 $194.4 $154.0 2012 $30.00 $28.00 1,568 $16.0 -- $0.040 $0.040 -$14.6 -$0.7 $0.7 $1.24 $195.1 $154.3 TotaI $30.00 $28.00 4,808 $442.2 -$0.069 -$227.4 -$19.7 $195.1 $12.35 $195.1 $154.3 Cash FIow GaIIey FieId Production 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 J u n - 9 8 J u n - 9 9 J u n - 0 0 J u n - 0 1 J u n - 0 2 J u n - 0 3 J u n - 0 4 J u n - 0 5 J u n - 0 6 J u n - 0 7 J u n - 0 8 J u n - 0 9 J u n - 1 0 J u n - 1 1 J u n - 1 2 A v g .
B O E p d 4Q04 Avg. Production= 11,936 Production Breakeven =2,143-2,857 March 30, 2004! [Page 9 of 16] ! ! OiI Price Sensitivity: The below chart shows that the Field is free cash flow positive through the end of 2009, at which point the free cash flow range is $2.1 - $9.1 based on NYMEX prices of $24-$30/Bbl, respectively. n 2009, the Field's oil price breakeven is $22/Bbl NYMEX. Using $24/Bbl NYMEX and $30/Bbl NYMEX, the production breakeven is 2,700 BOEpd and 2,100 BOEpd, respectively, which is below our estimated average 4Q09 production rate of 2,900 BOEpd. The purpose of the chart is to demonstrate the Field's economics at points in time assuming the Dayrate Schedule. The graph also establishes NOF's year-end cash balances are adequate to accommodate the reduced dayrates in the outer years and simultaneously support the $100 mm of 11% New Secured notes assumed the in our Recommended Restructuring. Of course, this analysis assumes that TLM makes no additional discoveries, which is a possibility. ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Rig Descriptions: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Northern Producer: The Northern Producer is a technologically advanced Floating Production Facility (FPF), specifically constructed to operate in harsh water and weather conditions such as those in the North Sea. The rig is equipped with a versatile process package, which enables it to produce in a wide range of offshore fields. t is capable of maximum oil production and export of approximately 55,000 barrels per day, gas production and export of approximately 60 mmcf per day and water injection of 45,000 Bblspd. t has accommodations for up to 75 people. The design and capabilities make the rig suitable for employment in floating production markets worldwide, including the Canadian continental shelf, the US GOM and offshore West Africa, South America (Brazil) and Southeast Asia.
Northern Producer VaIuation: The below asset valuation utilizes the Dayrate Schedule as noted above, which assumes the Company executes a new contract for the Northern Producer with TLM. Assuming the Dayrate Schedule, which incorporates the contracted $103,000 dayrate for all of 2004, we value the new contract at $83.5 mm (PV10 for 2004-2009). f however, we assume the Company operates until year-end 2004 and restructures in January 2005, the contract beginning year for valuation purposes is 2005 with the expiration to be determined by the Galley Field's economic life. As such, we believe the more conservative contract value (PV10) ranges from $47.0 mm (2005-2007) - $62.8 mm (2005-2009) and are represented in our Base Case and High Case, respectively. Max Water Cost Current Current Contract Rig Name Rig Type Depth (Ft) $MM Location Status Operator Exp. Northern Producer Floating Production Facility NA $226 North Sea Working Talisman Jan-05 Energy Searcher Drillship 2,500 $37 Singapore Working Rims Energy Aug-04E Northern Explorer Drillship (ce Class), DP 1,000 $100 Singapore Stacked NA NA Galaxy Driller Semisubmersible 2nd Gen. 600 $50 Singapore Stacked NA NA Discover Drillship 1,500 $12 Mexico Stacked NA NA $425 Northern Producer Dayrate vs. GaIIey FieId Cash FIow (NYMEX @ $24/BbI) $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 D a y r a t e $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 F i e I d
C a s h
F I o w
( $ M M ) Dayrate FieId Cash FIow @ $24 FieId Cash FIow @ $30 NOF's YE Cash BaI. March 30, 2004! [Page 10 of 16] ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Energy Searcher: The drillship completed its contract with Daewoo in January 2004 at a dayrate of $57,000. The rig then went into drydock for 13-days and is now employed at a $50,000 dayrate under a contract offshore ndia through April 2004 with Hardy Oil & Gas. Northern Offshore indicated in its 4Q03 press release that the Company received a Letter of ntent from Rims Energy for drilling in ndonesia that will commence immediately after the current contract with Hardy we estimate this contract will most likely extend into August 2004 at a $50,000 dayrate. The Energy Searcher is a conventionally moored drilling vessel, which can drill in water depths up to 2,500 ft. The drillship is self-propelled, which means that there are no costly tugs and heavy lift vessels required for mobilization to another market. Our asset values for the Energy Searcher are $18.3 mm, $23.7 mm, and $29.2 mm in the Low, Base, and High Cases, respectively, which is in line with the PV10 values per below that utilize today's spot dayrates for this type of vessel. ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! NORTHERN PRODUCER Contract Yr. Dayrate Tariff TotaI DaiIy AnnuaI Mgmt. TotaI Cash CumItve. PV @ Ended Dayrate Revenue Revenue Revenue Opex Opex Fee Expenses FIow FV 10% 2004 $0.103 $37.6 $4.7 $42.3 $0.035 -$12.8 -$0.6 -$13.3 $29.0 $29.0 $26.3 2005 $0.080 $29.2 $3.7 $32.9 $0.035 -$12.8 -$0.6 -$13.3 $19.6 $48.6 $42.5 2006 $0.080 $29.2 $2.9 $32.1 $0.035 -$12.8 -$0.6 -$13.3 $18.8 $67.4 $56.6 2007 $0.080 $29.2 $2.3 $31.5 $0.035 -$12.8 -$0.6 -$13.3 $18.2 $85.6 $69.1 2008 $0.070 $25.6 $1.8 $27.4 $0.035 -$12.8 -$0.6 -$13.3 $14.1 $99.6 $77.8 2009 $0.060 $21.9 $1.4 $23.3 $0.035 -$12.8 -$0.6 -$13.3 $10.0 $109.6 $83.5 2010 $0.060 $21.9 $1.1 $23.0 $0.035 -$12.8 -$0.6 -$13.3 $9.7 $119.3 $88.4 2011 $0.050 $18.3 $0.9 $19.2 $0.035 -$12.8 -$0.6 -$13.3 $5.8 $125.2 $91.2 2012 $0.040 $14.6 $0.7 $15.3 $0.035 -$12.8 -$0.6 -$13.3 $2.0 $127.2 $92.0 TotaI $0.6 $227.4 $19.7 $247.1 -$115.0 -$5.0 -$119.9 $127.2 $127.2 ENERGY SEARCHER Yr. DaiIy DaiIy UtiI. Cash CumItve. PV @ Ended Dayrate Opex Margin Rate Revenue Opex FIow FV 10% 2004 $0.050 $0.035 $0.015 80% $14.6 $10.2 $4.4 $4.4 $4.0 2005 $0.050 $0.035 $0.015 80% $14.6 $10.2 $4.4 $8.8 $7.6 2006 $0.050 $0.035 $0.015 80% $14.6 $10.2 $4.4 $13.1 $10.9 2007 $0.050 $0.035 $0.015 80% $14.6 $10.2 $4.4 $17.5 $13.9 2008 $0.050 $0.035 $0.015 80% $14.6 $10.2 $4.4 $21.9 $16.6 2009 $0.050 $0.035 $0.015 80% $14.6 $10.2 $4.4 $26.3 $19.1 2010 $0.050 $0.035 $0.015 80% $14.6 $10.2 $4.4 $30.7 $21.3 2011 $0.050 $0.035 $0.015 80% $14.6 $10.2 $4.4 $35.0 $23.4 2012 $0.050 $0.035 $0.015 80% $14.6 $10.2 $4.4 $39.4 $25.2 TotaI $131.4 $92.0 $39.4 $39.4 $25.2 Assumptions March 30, 2004! [Page 11 of 16]
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! IRR ANALYSIS ASSUMING RECOMMENDED RESTRUCTURING Purch. & Purch. & Purch. & Asset Debt Asset Debt Asset Debt Recovery Interest Amo. TotaI Recovery Interest Amo. TotaI Recovery Interest Amo. TotaI 20.7% 24.1% 26.3% 4/3/04 -$65.3 -- -- -$65.3 -$65.3 -- -- -$65.3 -$65.3 -- -- -$65.3 5/15/04 -- $1.7 -- $1.7 -- $1.7 -- $1.7 -- $1.7 -- $1.7 11/15/04 -- $7.2 -- $7.2 -- $7.2 -- $7.2 -- $7.2 -- $7.2 12/31/04 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 3/31/05 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 6/30/05 -- $4.4 $0.8 $5.1 -- $4.4 $0.8 $5.1 -- $4.4 $0.8 $5.1 9/30/05 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 12/31/05 -- $4.4 $3.2 $7.6 -- $4.4 $3.2 $7.6 -- $4.4 $3.2 $7.6 3/31/06 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 6/30/06 -- $4.4 $3.1 $7.5 -- $4.4 $3.1 $7.5 -- $4.4 $3.1 $7.5 9/30/06 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 12/31/06 -- $4.4 $3.2 $7.6 -- $4.4 $3.2 $7.6 -- $4.4 $3.2 $7.6 3/31/07 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 6/30/07 -- $4.4 $3.1 $7.5 -- $4.4 $3.1 $7.5 -- $4.4 $3.1 $7.5 9/30/07 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 12/31/07 -- $4.4 $3.2 $7.6 -- $4.4 $3.2 $7.6 -- $4.4 $3.2 $7.6 3/31/08 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 6/30/08 -- $4.4 $2.4 $6.7 -- $4.4 $2.4 $6.7 -- $4.4 $2.4 $6.7 9/30/08 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 12/31/08 -- $4.4 $1.5 $5.9 -- $4.4 $1.5 $5.9 -- $4.4 $1.5 $5.9 3/31/09 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 6/30/09 -- $4.4 $0.6 $4.9 -- $4.4 $0.6 $4.9 -- $4.4 $0.6 $4.9 9/30/09 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 12/31/09 $64.1 $4.4 -- $68.4 $85.3 $4.4 -- $89.7 $100.8 $4.4 -- $105.2 TotaI -$1.3 $52.5 $21.1 $72.4 $20.0 $52.5 $21.1 $93.6 $35.5 $52.5 $21.1 $109.2 HIGH BASE LOW March 30, 2004! [Page 14 of 16] ! Appendix D: Floating Production Vessels ! Exploration and production companies use two basic types of facilities to produce oil and gas from offshore fields: fixed platforms and floating production vessels. Floating production vessels provide the capability for use in deep waters beyond the limitations of fixed platforms. Fixed platforms are generally restricted to water depths of 1,300 feet or less. Additionally, floating production vessels are mobile and can therefore be reused. They are sometimes used in water depths that could accommodate fixed platforms, particularly in circumstances when the oil or gas reservoir has a relatively short production life. Floating production vessels offer a cost-effective approach to offshore oil and gas production and, combined with sub-sea completion technology, reduce the threshold at which offshore production becomes economically viable. Floating production was developed as an alternative to fixed platforms in order to reduce overall costs and the financial exposure associated with developing small to medium-sized offshore fields. These units are generally capable of conducting the same operations as fixed platforms, with the exception of drilling and heavy well maintenance, which only a few converted semi-submersible drilling units are equipped for. Demand for floating production has increased due to the lack of infrastructure in deep water development areas, improvements in sub-sea technology and the growing number of small to medium-sized offshore fields, particularly in mature producing regions such as the North Sea. There are three basic types of floating production vessels: tension-leg platforms (TLPs), spar platforms and floating production facilities (FPFs). ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! March 30, 2004! [Page 15 of 16] Notes:
March 30, 2004! [Page 16 of 16] ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 2004 Jefferies & Company, nc. All rights reserved ! I, Greg Imbruce, certify that aII of the views expressed in this research report accurateIy refIect my personaI views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I aIso certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or wiII be, directIy or indirectIy, reIated to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. This material has been prepared by Jefferies & Company, nc. ("Jefferies") a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, employing appropriate expertise, and in the belief that it is fair and not misleading. t is approved for distribution in the United Kingdom by Jefferies nternational Limited ("JL") regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA"). The information upon which this material is based was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified. Therefore except for any obligations under the rules of the FSA, we do not guarantee its accuracy. Additional and supporting information is available upon request. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or investment. Any opinion or estimates constitute our best judgment as of this date, and are subject to change without notice. Jefferies and JL and their affiliates and their respective directors, officers and employees may buy or sell securities mentioned herein as agent or principal for their own account. This material is intended for use only by professional or institutional investors falling within articles 19 or 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001and not the general investing public. None of the investments or investment services mentioned or described herein are available to other persons in the U.K. and in particular are not available to "private customers" as defined by the rules of the FSA or to anyone in Canada who is not a "Designated nstitution" as defined by the Securities Act (Ontario)."