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GETTING IT RIGHT:
PG.06 THE CHARACTERISTICS IN DEPTH PG.06 PG.06 PG.07 PG.08 PG.09 PG.10
1. UNITED, CLEAN, HIGH QUALITY DATA 2. THE RIGHT TEAM 3. CUSTOM, ALGORITHMIC APPROACH TO ATTRIBUTION 4. FOCUS ON CAUSALITY 5. THREE LEVELS OF ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6. THE WILL TO ACT
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
INTRODUCTION
Youre probably familiar with the above quote from department store pioneer John Wanamaker. Its entertaining of course, but its also proof that the marketing attribution challenge is as old as marketing itself. Every year, hundreds of billions of dollars are spent on marketing tactics often with patchy (or even no) evidence that all that money is delivering genuine value to the business. For decades, brands have struggled to identify accurate ways of assessing marketing impact. The advent of digital has inspired tremendous marketer interest in analytics and accountability. One of the key drivers of this interest is the recognition that brands need to be more effective at understanding what works. A 2012 survey of marketers conducted by IBM showed that just 34% of marketing organizations have a sophisticated approach to investing marketing resources and engaging customers across multiple channels.ii
Percent
of
Marke-ng
Budget
Spent
on
Analy-cs
Percent of Marketing Budget Spent on Analytics
15%
10%
5%
0%
Current
Levels
In
The
Next
Three
Years
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13.5% 8.0%
i ii
Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wanamaker IBM The State of Marketing 2012: IBMs Global Survey of Marketers http://www.slideshare.net/165yohodr/the-state-of-marketing-2012-ibms-global-survey-of-marketers-final Christine Moorman and TheCMOSurvey.org 2012 http://cmosurvey.org/results/
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GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
42%
is paramount when estimating the revenue tied to particular channels or tactics, since inaccurate attribution would end up negatively affecting results. Since such issues affect the daily lives of most marketers, its quite natural that interest in attribution has become rather keen.
57%
47%
36%
Business Rules Weighting: Applies a set percentage of the credit to each marketing event preceding a conversion based upon a predetermined weighting scale. Exponential Weighting: Applies a progressively larger percentage of the credit depending on how close marketing events were to the time of conversion. Each of these models is called rules-based, meaning that the model is assumed/assigned by the brand or agency, rather than being derived based upon a comprehensive analysis of a brands data.
iv
eConsultancy and Google Analytics: Marketing Attribution: Valuing the Customer Journey http://services. google.com/fh/files/misc/marketing_attribution_whitepaper.pdf
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GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
The Google and eConsultancy study revealed that the majority brands and agencies use the simpler methodologies to address the attribution challenge. Specifically: 4% of agencies and brands focus on last-click attribution (e.g., crediting an entire 5 sale to the last touchpoint before purchase). 41% of agencies and 25% of brands manually assign weightings to different channels and apply those to their impact analyses. 41% of agencies and 24% of brands assign full credit to the first-click a consumer makes on a marketing experience.v
(Note, figures add up to greater than 100 because companies may use more than one method across businesses, campaigns, or time periods.)
In practice brands and agencies tend to choose the simpler methods for attributing sales credit, even though their leaders recognize that these approaches likely distort the true value of tactics. The simple methods distort because they are rulesrather than evidence-based. Attribution credit is assigned rather than demonstrated through statistical analysis. For example, while last-click is the most common attribution methodology, it is also the least trusted, according to that same survey.
19% 29%
55%
18%
17%
5%
Customized
by
Channel
Very
EecIve
9%
Unique
Methodology
Somewhat
EecIve
25%
8%
Linear
First
Click
13%
Last
Click
Very
IneecIve
Somewhat IneecIve
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GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
I say these models are simplistic because for them to truly be accurate, then virtually every one of your customers would have to share a common path to conversion. That is absurd. And besides, if you knew the correct attribution weightings, why would you go to the trouble and expense of buying a rules-based attribution tool? It would add little value. Another issue with rules-based models is that they minimize or ignore the importance of demographic, psychographic, and behavioral user characteristics and their impacts on conversion. Rules-based models are focused primarily on an imagined sequence of marketing events, even though extensive research has demonstrated that set paths dont actually exist. Using a simplistic attribution approach does make the attribution math easier, but using such a model without first demonstrating its validity is inherently dangerous. We might presume, for example, that spreading credit evenly across all marketing events leading up to a conversion would be more accurate than giving all credit to the final click. Sounds sensible enough, right? It seems logical that preceding events had to have had at least some role in causing a conversion. But did they? Without actually analyzing a brands data, that assumption is just as unproven as last-click or any other attribution model. It can be just as inaccurate perhaps even more inaccurate than last-click. The whole point of attribution is to know rather than guess. To attach revenue estimates to various ad channels and tactics with the ultimate goal of changing overall strategy and marketing mix. Getting it wrong means making changes and choices that could be bad for your business!
You may also be familiar with A/B testing methodologies that demonstrate the incremental value of marketing within a particular channel. They are common at the individual media vendor level, but its impractical to use them at the media plan level or in a cross channel analysis at this time.
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GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
models. Expecting agencies to accurately deliver attribution without paying for it is absurd. Agencies are businesses after all. Historically, many clients have been unwilling to pay additional fees to their agencies for analytics-based attribution. As a result, their agencies have been forced to choose unproven rules-based approaches. They do their best with the resources you give them.
Expecting agencies to
accurately deliver attribution without paying for it is absurd. Agencies are businesses after all.
If you expect your agency to deliver a genuine attribution solution, youre going to need to pay separately for that service. Todays lean commissions and fees simply dont allow room for it.
Weve talked a lot about how not to go about attributing marketing impact. Lets spend the balance of this paper defining how to do attribution right. On a fundamental level, a bona fide
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GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
attribution solution must have the following six characteristics: 1. UNITED, CLEAN, HIGH QUALITY DATA 2. THE RIGHT TEAM 3. CUSTOM, ALGORITHMIC APPROACH TO ATTRIBUTION 4. FOCUS ON CAUSALITY 5. THREE LEVELS OF ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6. THE WILL TO ACT Lets examine each of these points individually.
What makes it such a difficult data management challenge is that different platforms utilize different data structures, formats and taxonomies. For example, working with Affiliate and Lead Gen data is rather different from working with Search or Display data. After being combined, data must be properly standardized, cleaned, and classified in order to deliver maximum value. Given all this, its critical that your attribution solution has the data management capabilities to integrate everything effectively. For Mediaplex this is not a new challenge. Weve been collecting and managing data across sites, Display, Search, Video, Mobile, Affiliate and Rich Media for years. But whether you hire us, build a team in-house or work with another vendor, ensure that these data management capabilities are covered off VERY thoroughly. They are absolutely critical to laying the right groundwork for accurate attribution.
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GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
Similarly, it challenges credulity to think that a pretty attribution dashboard alone can deliver true analytics. The biggest issue with SaaS-based D-I-Y solutions is that almost by definition they must leverage surrogate measures, incomplete math, and simplistic models to make themselves easy to implement and use. The uniqueness of your brands business gets lost when you use cookie cutter platforms. There are many great analysts in the world who arent PhDs in Statistics or Mathematics. But analysis is different from analytics. And revealing the true business impact of marketing tactics requires analytics, not reporting or analysis. Im not being pedantic here. The words simply describe different things. If you accept that you need statisticians to do the job, your next challenge is to get them on your team. You can hire them yourself or you can work with a solution provider that has an in-house team you can leverage.
285,000
ix
In my view, outsourcing is preferable for most companies. Heres why. In addition to the infrastructure costs necessary for warehousing, storing & processing the data, the cost of acquiring a first rate analytics/statistics team is very high. Demand for high quality statisticians well outstrips supply. According to a 2011 McKinsey Global Institute study, by 2018 the US faces a shortage of 140,000 to 190,000 people with deep analytical skills as well as 1.5 million managers and analysts with the know-how to use the analysis of big data to make effective decisions. viii
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GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
When you outsource to a vendor that already has a top tier team and a world-class data infrastructure, you avoid the capital investment, hiring and salary expenses as well as the time lag for finding and onboarding qualified individuals. You can be acting on insights and optimizing your plan far more quickly with an outsourced model.
And Social isnt the only vehicle that is dramatically altering the journey. As Search becomes more multiplatform and begins to include more visuals, its role is radically changing as well. Similarly, Rich Media is enhancing the role of Display in some categories a banner with a video player has markedly different impacts than a static GIF format.
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GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
The marketing effects of different tactics are constantly evolving, so marketing attribution is an ongoing commitment. Make sure that the attribution approach you choose can accommodate the dynamic nature of digital so that you can adjust to new market realities.
4. FOCUS ON CAUSALITY
The ultimate goal of any marketer is to discover what mix of marketing investments drives the most conversions. What makes marketing attribution so complex is that correlation looks a lot like causation. It is far easier to observe that converters seem to share a common trait than statistically proving that that trait is instrumental in causing the conversion. Just because exposure to a particular marketing event is common among conversions (correlation) doesnt mean it actually influenced to those conversions (causality).
It might be that exposure to a particular tactic is simply common across the entire population. That investment may have in fact been wasteful. Its the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. After this, therefore because of this. There are proven statistical methods that can ensure you dont fall into this trap. In order to deliver real insight into what works, aka causality, you need to meet a certain burden of statistical proof. You need to understand the differences between converters and nonconverters to tease out events that correlate with conversion from those that actually cause it. The quest for causality a fundamental marketing attribution essential requires the right inputs and the right analytics. Without them you may easily mistake correlation for causation and may actually allocate resources in a way that diminishes return.
This is a key part of what marketing attribution should do. But there are other parts as well. Attribution should provide answers to three questions, not just one:
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GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
1. How should I allocate my spending across channels to achieve maximum ROI? 2. How should I allocate resources across vendors to achieve maximum ROI? 3. What is the precise value of a real-time impression for a particular person? The way a statistician thinks about attribution is to use data analysis to estimate the effects of different marketing events while controlling for other factors. The reason is that if we can get good estimates of the revenue being generated by each event, we can create good estimates of the relative value of each marketing activity and how to reallocate our spend to improve results. Channel level allocation helps marketers fine tune their investments across various marketing vehicles. This can be extremely valuable counsel as certain simplistic attribution models, like last-click attribution, favor so called bottom of the funnel vehicles. Vendor level allocation helps us choose partners that are delivering genuine, incremental marketing value to a plan. It helps us understand if a step on a consumer journey is actually causal. For example: using a last click attribution model, Paid Search often gets all the credit for sales. Search plays a significant role in some cases. But a large percentage of consumer searches are what is called navigational searches, meaning that the search engine is simply used to make it easier to visit a website to buy something they were already going to buy. In those cases, Search is getting credit for sales it really didnt drive. The third, impression-level analytics and recommendations, relate specifically to the real-time bidding (RTB) media exchanges that have emerged as an important media buying channel. A robust marketing attribution solution should be linked to your demand side platform (DSP). That way, as an impression becomes available on the exchange your tool has a precise way of assessing its value and bidding accordingly.
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GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
an organization. There can be no sacred cows, no pet tactics. Or at least if there are sacred cows, we need to recognize that thats exactly what they are that there are reasons other than ROI for why we do them. For some people reading this, a fact-based approach to tactic selection will seem a breath of fresh air. So many marketers I have spoken with have said that their efforts to optimize marketing are hindered by fad-driven decision-making higher up. We need a widget! We need an app! Why doesnt our toilet paper brand have a Twitter account?
The challenge of
analytics-driven marketing is that it requires commitment and alignment across an organization.
As a statistician, I am a purist. If I had my druthers, everything would be quantifiable and measurable. Not everything is quantifiable yet, but an organization aligned to the value of analytics will get closer and closer to that goal over time. An analyticsbased approach demands that we recognize that better information has given us new insight. Knowing and acting on that knowledge is a good thing. Knowing and not acting is irresponsible. One final note: as we put marketing attribution insights into practice, we need to ensure we dont throw out babies with the bathwater. A pure analytical approach might suggest that some tactics are ineffective and need to be reconsidered. But this in no way questions the worth of individuals who were charged with implementing those tactics. They might, for example, have been incredibly adept at getting extraordinary results from a tactic even if it wasnt the best use of funds. For that, the individual deserves praise, not condemnation.
CONCLUSIONS
Marketing attribution is absolutely critical to your brands future success. No brand has resources to waste pursuing marketing approaches that arent driving maximum ROI. In fact, in my view measurement is the #1 issue holding back digital marketing from scaling to a $100B industry. Marketers cant make wholesale shifts in channel allocation from traditional to digital without proof. And real proof only comes from algorithmic causal attribution. The sobering reality is that most brands do not currently attribute marketing effects in a genuine, fact-based way. Its also unfortunate that most of the marketing attribution tools and platforms out there
No brand has
resources to waste pursuing marketing approaches that arent driving maximum ROI.
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GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
arent really capable of doing the job right. But all is not lost! Believe it or not, genuine marketing attribution is quite achievable. And in my view essential if marketing is to deliver on its full potential for brands. We hope that this white paper has made it a little easier for you to vet potential partners and choose the best marketing attribution option for your business. Id love to hear from you about your thoughts and experience in the world of marketing attribution or in the process of choosing a partner. Please dont hesitate to email me at MattAnthony@mediaplex.com.
ABOUT MEDIAPLEX
Mediaplex, a division of ValueClick, Inc. (NASDAQ: VCLK), is the technology-empowered analytics and optimization provider that scientifically identifies the best way for brands to invest marketing resources and then executes against those insights with a suite of advanced campaign management tools. Its unique software with service model delivers industry-leading technology coupled with the deep analytics expertise necessary to answer Marketings most mission-critical question: how to maximize ROI from marketing investments. With all the essential software and services needed to correctly collect, manage, interpret, and action data, Mediaplexs end-to-end solution is the first to make genuine data-driven marketing a reality. For more information visit Mediaplex.com or contact us at 1.877.402.PLEX (7539).
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GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM