Ph.

D THESIS (SYNOPSIS)

SEDIMENT YEILD FROM A MOUNTANIOUS WATERSHED IN PAKISTAN (A CASE STUDY OF NARAN BASIN, A SUB-CATCHMENT OF KUNHAR RIVER)

BY: NAME...FAROOQ AZIM CHEEMA REGISTRATION NO 2007-Ph.D-WRE-03 DATE OF REGISTRATION.02 JANUARY, 2008 PART TIME/FULL TIME:....PART TIME

SUPERVISOR: PROF. DR.MUHAMMAD LATIF (DIRECTOR)

CENTER OF EXCELLENCE IN WATER RESOURCES ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, LAHORE

SEDIMENT YIELD FROM A MOUNTAINOUS WATERSHED IN PAKISTAN (A CASE STUDY OF NARAN BASIN, A SUB-CATCHMENT OF KUNHAR RIVER)

Abstract The high sediment yields from mountainous watersheds are threatening the storage capacities of the reservoirs. A warming climate increases tropical cyclone intensity, causing more intense rainfall. This creates problems for soil and water conservation and management, particularly for countries in the western tropical and subtropical Pacific region, where cyclones (typhoons) frequently occur. Countries located on a typhoon track and frequently suffer from devastating floods and landslides generated by typhoons. There are speculated impacts of global warming on the hydrological cycle and associated processes and the threats posed to the inhabitants of the locals. Proposed study will present qualitative and quantitative evidence for the changing characteristics of rainfallrunoff patterns and the associated geomorphic response under a changing climate. In this study estimates of sediment yield for watersheds will be obtained using a physical based distributed hydrologic and sediment transport Model which will be compared with direct measurements. For the verification of the Model results flows and sediment concentration data will be collected from SWHP WAPDA a data collection Authority at site, they got this data by installing automatic water level recorders on the streams and by measuring the flow velocity using a current meter. Stream water samples are analysed in the laboratory to obtain the values of suspended sediment concentration required to calculate the sediment load. This study will focuses on sediment problems in river basins and the difficulties involved. Firstly overviews of the sediment problems experienced by individual countries or particular issues relating to the wider region will be presented; and then case studies that deal with specific problems and their management will be investigated. The overviews highlight the sediment problems faced including soil erosion and reservoir sedimentation; recent changes in the sediment loads and their wider implications; the impact of human activity on the sediment loads of rivers; and new challenges for erosion and sedimentation research will be linked to contemporary issues.

1.0

INTRODUCTION Earth's climate has undergone radical changes in the distant as well as the recent past

and is almost certain to undergo more radical changes in the not-too-distant future. As industrialization, population, and urbanization continue to increase, so too will stressors on the environment such as pollution. Such change in climate and environmental quality could have huge implications for quality of life. Regardless of where we stand on the often politically charged issue of global warming, or global climate change, we owe it to ourselves and our children to take an intelligent look at the data and develop actionable, intelligent alternatives. Climate change has many origins such as; changes in solar activity, alterations in the earth's orbit about the sun, natural variability including volcanic activity, anthropogenic (of human origin). Changes since 1850 in the composition of the atmosphere and increases in the principal Greenhouse gases -- Carbon Dioxide and Methane -- have been linked to human activities. Climate normals or average weather conditions computed from a 30-year period can be significantly different when computed from early last century and compared to the present time. Similarly, future climate normals may differ significantly from today's climate. An understanding of the precipitation regimes throughout the world may allow the definition of climatic zones based on temperature and precipitation regimes. This may permit the definition of areas of high and low erosion rates. It is difficult to classify distinct climatic zones as they tend to merge into one another rather than have sharp boundaries but a number of general models have been produced. There have been many climatic classifications produced but one of the most common is based on the original Koppen classification (Pidwirny, 1999) with eight climatic regions based on four temperature zones and one moisture zone and the seasonal domination of air masses. High sediment yields are natural in the tropics and are balanced by the high rates of erosion and soil production. When this balance is disturbed by anthropogenic activities then the sediment yield is dramatically increased at the expense of soil renewal. The steady rise in soil erosion in tropical countries due to increased cultivation has endangered reservoir projects and caused doubts about the viability of existing and future schemes. The impoundment of water for potable and irrigation supplies, hydro-power, and flood control is a necessary step towards improved national incomes. Untimely sedimentation may reduce the benefits and, if it is ignored, remedial measures may become prohibitively expensive.
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2.0 2.1

PROBLEM STATEMENT Environment and motivation Sediment yield is inextricably linked with climate, so the prospect of global climate

change has serious implications for water resources and their development. It is mentioned in IPCC report that increased evaporation combined with regional changes in precipitation characteristics has the potential to affect mean runoff, frequency and intensity of floods and drought, ground water, soil moisture, and water supplies for irrigation and hydroelectric generation. The potential for global climate changes to increase the risk of soil erosion is clear, but actual damage is difficult to estimate. TAMS and HR Wallingford (1998) have estimated the sediment discharge in Tarbela Reservoir as an average of 200 metric ton per year. There are ways in which soil erosion and sediment production may be affected by climate change: Changes in temperatures Changes in seasonal rainfall distribution , and Changes in rainfall extreme

2.2

Problem Narration Sediment problems are assuming increasing importance in many river basins and can

represent a key impediment to sustainable development. Such problems include accelerated soil erosion, reservoir sedimentation and the wider impact of sediment on aquatic ecology, river morphology and water resource exploitation. They are further complicated by the impact of climate change in causing both increases and decreases in the sediment load of many rivers in recent years. To address these problems, sediment management process must be investigated considering factors of climate change. In perspective of recent threats of climate change, the safe usability of existing and new development of water resources infrastructure is not taken into account in prevailing practices of project design and appraisals which require ascertaining quantifiable impact of local climate change. 2.3 NEED OF STUDY Critical decisions are made on the basis of 'climate normals'. For example, reservoirs life and their flushing capacity are designed to take into account past climates' extremes. Changing extremes due to climate change may render some designs unfit or unable to withstand future conditions within the design's expected lifetime. Although a factor of safety
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and future expansion margins are kept to cover up this and other unforeseen; however there is need to assess quantifiable impact due to climate change in respect of reduction in uncertainty and risk.

3.0

STUDY OBJECTIVES It is aimed to estimate the effects of the anticipated changes on the stream suspended

sediment loads, exemplified on a stream draining a watershed. The overall objectives of this research will be following: 1. 2. 3. 4. 3.1 Identify and evaluate basin-specific hydrologic-based rainfall and runoff factors. Identify and evaluate basin-specific sediment erosion, transport and yield factors. To establish the rainfall runoff relationship of the watershed To establish the sediment concentration and yield relationship with the runoff

Scope of study

In attempt to solve stated problem, following work will be performed: Exhaustive literature survey for analysis of the problem domain and factors extraction Spatial, Physical properties and Land use data processing with GIS Data analysis of precipitations, temperatures, flow and sediments Rainfall runoff relationship Runoff sediment yield relationship Assessing sediment yield

4.0 4.1

LITERATURE SURVEY Research Background Climate change impacts on basins inflow supply in various ways. It may alter

seasonal temperature and precipitation, shift the timing of stream flow runoff, and reduce the ability of existing supplies to meet water needs. The only means available to quantify the non-linear climate response is by using numerical models of the climate system based on well-established physical, chemical and biological principles, possibly combined with empirical and statistical methods. These are designed mainly for studying climate processes and natural climate variability, and for projecting the response of the climate to humaninduced forcing (Baede et al., 2001).

Shrestha et al. (1999) analysed and found maximum temperature data from 49 stations in Nepal for the period 197194 reveal warming trends after 1977 ranging from 0.068 to 0.120C per year in most of the Middle Mountain and Himalayan regions, while the Siwalik and Terai (southern plains) regions show warming trends less than 0.030C per year. The subset of records (14 stations) extending back to the early 1960s suggests that the recent warming trends were preceded by similar widespread cooling trends. Distributions of seasonal and annual temperature trends show high rates of warming in the high-elevation regions of the country (Middle Mountains and Himalaya), while low warming or even cooling trends were found in the southern regions. This is attributed to the sensitivity of mountainous regions to climate changes. The seasonal temperature trends and spatial distribution of temperature trends also highlight the influence of monsoon circulation.

A study of the long-term trend in surface air temperatures in India by Hingane et al. (1985) indicated an increase in mean annual temperature of 0.480C over the past century. A study of changes in air temperature of Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau showed a decreasing trend from 1950 to 1970 and an increase after 1970 (Li and Tang 1986).

Linear regression analysis by Archer (2003) suggests that a 1C rise in mean summer temperature arising from climate change would result in an increase of 17% in summer runoff for the river Shyok (basin area 65 025 km2) and a 16% increase for the river Hunza (basin area 13 925 km2), respectively. Fowler and Archer (2006) found that increase in winter maximum temperature is large and statistically significant (p< 0.05) at Gilgit, Skardu, and Dir, with increases of 0.27, 0.55, and 0.51C decade-1, respectively.
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Singh and Kumar (1997) and Bengtsson (2005) suggest through modeling studies that increased temperature results in increased evaporative loss and since snow cover volume is limiting in reduced runoff, with an estimated decrease of 9% for a 1C rise in temperature for the Satluj basin in the western Himalayas. Akhtar et al. (2008) found that the annual mean temperature rise by the end of the century ranges from 0.3 to 4.8 C. The warming is more pronounced in the Hunza (4.5C) and Gilgit (4.8C) river basins compared to the Astore (0.3C) river basin where in the summer season the temperature even decrease by 0.2C. The precipitation changes in the Hunza (19%) and Gilgit (21%) river basins are somewhat similar, while precipitation changes in the Astore (113%) river basin are comparatively large.

Archer and Fowler (2004) found the trends of rainfall from 1961 to 1999 with decadal increases in order of 22, 103 and 120 mm at Skardu, Shahpur and Dir climate station of upper Indus basin respectively. Khan (2001) concluded that the analysis of time series of river flows and associated climatic data did not find any pattern of trends likely to be caused by greenhouse warming in the Upper Indus Basin.

Wang et al (2009) found in a sub-basin of Yellow River for the period 19502000 that the decrease in percentage change of run-off due to climate change impact is found to be 89% followed by 66% and 56% in 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, respectively. Labat et al., (2004) claimed a 4% increase in global total runoff per 1C rise in temperature during the 20th century.

According to White, W.R. 1990, Sediment yields vary with climate, the geology of the catchment and land-use practices. White, W.R. 2000 investigated the sediment amount and nature of the sediment entering or likely to enter the reservoir needs to be established. This requires measurements over many years to establish the results with the confidence which is required. There are various approaches to this task. Most commonly sediment transport is measured at a gauging station not too far upstream of the reservoir and a relationship between flow rate and sediment transport rate is established. The long hydrological record is then used to compute the total amount of sediment passing the gauging station by integrating over the period of the record. There are some dangers in doing this because there is no unique relationship between flow rate and sediment transport rate for fine cohesive sediments, the quantities of sediment being determined by the amount being washed off the catchment not
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the capability of the river to transport them. Bed load is difficult to measure and is often estimated as 10% of the total sediment load. An alternative approach is to calculate the bed load using established predictive techniques. In the case of existing reservoirs, information about the amount of sediments entering the reservoir can be augmented by surveys of the amount and nature of the material settling within the reservoir. Care is required, however, to allow for the amount of material, mainly fine, which passes through the reservoir without deposition. Bed material sampling should be undertaken in the reservoir and in the rivers which feed the reservoir. A sound knowledge of the nature of these sediments, including their size and specific gravity, is an essential requirement to provide inputs for numerical models which simulate sediment movement. Michael et al. (2005) projected potential increases in erosion of the order of 20 to 60% over the next five decades for two sites in Saxony, Germany. These results are arguably based on significant simplifications with regard to the array of interactions involved in this type of assessment (e.g., biomass production with changing climate). Pruski and Nearing (2002a) simulated erosion for the 21st century at eight locations in the USA using the HadCM3 GCM, and taking into account the primary physical and biological mechanisms affecting erosion. The simulated cropping systems were maize and wheat. The results indicated a complex set of interactions between the several factors that affect the erosion process. Overall, where precipitation increases were projected, estimated erosion increased by 15 to 100%. Where precipitation decreases were projected, the results were more complex due largely to interactions between plant biomass, runoff, and erosion, and either increases or decreases in overall erosion could occur. A significant potential impact of climate change on soil erosion and sediment generation is associated with the change from snowfall to rainfall. The potential impact may be particularly important in northern climates. Warmer winter temperatures would bring an increasing amount of winter precipitation as rain instead of snow, and erosion by storm runoff would increase. The results described above which use a process-based approach incorporated the effect of a shift from snow to rain due to warming, but the studies did not delineate this specific effect from the general results. Changes in soil surface conditions, such as surface roughness, sealing and crusting, may change with shifts in climate, and hence affect erosion rates. Zhang and Nearing (2005) evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion in central Oklahoma. Monthly projections were used from the HadCM3 GCM, using
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the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios and GGa1 (a scenario in which greenhouse gases increase by 1%/yr), for the periods 1950 to 1999 and 2070 to 2099. While the HadCM3-projected mean annual precipitation during 2070 to 2099 at El Reno, Oklahoma, decreased by 13.6%, 7.2%, and 6.2% for A2, B2, and GGa1, respectively, the predicted erosion (except for the no-till conservation practice scenario) increased by 18-30% for A2, remained similar for B2, and increased by 67-82% for GGa1. The greater increases in erosion in the GGa1 scenario was attributed to greater variability in monthly precipitation and an increased frequency of large storms in the model simulation. Results indicated that no-till (or conservation tillage) systems can be effective in reducing soil erosion under projected climates. A more complex, but potentially dominant, factor is the potential for shifts in land use necessary to accommodate a new climatic regime (ONeal et al., 2005). As farmers adapt cropping systems, the susceptibility of the soil to erosive forces will change. Farmer adaptation may range from shifts in planting, cultivation and harvest dates, to changes in crop type (Southworth et al., 2000; Pfeifer and Habeck, 2002). Modelling results for the upper Midwest U.S. suggest that erosion will increase as a function of future land-use changes, largely because of a general shift away from wheat and maize towards soybean production. For ten out of eleven regions in the study area, predicted runoff increased from +10% to +310%, and soil loss increased from +33% to +274%, in 20402059 relative to 19901999 (ONeal et al., 2005). Other land-use scenarios would lead to different results. For example, improved conservation practices can greatly reduce erosion rates (Souchere et al., 2005), while clear-cutting a forest during a slash-and-burn operation has a huge negative impact on susceptibility to runoff and erosion. Little work has been done on the expected impacts of climate change on sediment loads in rivers and streams. Bouraoui et al. (2004) showed, for southern Finland, that the observed increase in precipitation and temperature was responsible for a decrease in snow cover and increase in winter runoff, which resulted in an increase in modelled suspended sediment loads. Kostaschuk et al. (2002) measured suspended sediment loads associated with tropical cyclones in Fiji, which generated very high (around 5% by volume) concentrations of sediment in the measured flows. The authors hypothesized that an increase in intensity of tropical cyclones brought about by a change in El Nio patterns could increase associated sediment loads in Fiji and across the South Pacific. In terms of the implications of climate change for soil conservation efforts, a significant realisation from recent scientific efforts is that conservation measures must be
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targeted at the extreme events more than ever before (Soil and Water Conservation Society, 2003). Intense rainfall events contribute a disproportionate amount of erosion relative to the total rainfall contribution, and this effect will only be exacerbated in the future if the frequency of such storms increases. 4.2 Projection of Historic Trend of Climate Change / Downscaling Outputs from general circulation models (GCMs) can be useful in getting an overview of possible climate scenarios, but are typically too coarse in scale (250 km x 250 km) to be useful in practical comprehensive water resource planning situations (Durman et al. 2001). The approaches which have been proposed for downscaling GCMs could be broadly classified into two categories: dynamic downscaling and statistical downscaling.

4.2.1 Downscaling Methods Dynamical Downscaling (DD) method involves the development of the regional climate model which required the user to highly understanding of the atmospheric physical behavior and local or regional interactions and feedback. Generally, DD method is used for regions of complex topography, coastal or island locations in the regions of highly heterogeneous land cover.

Statistical downscaling or empirical downscaling is a tool for downscaling climate information from coarse spatial scales to finer scales. Statistical downscaling methods rely on empirical relationships between local-scale predictands and regional-scale predictors to downscale GCM scenarios Successful statistical downscaling is thus dependent on long reliable series of predictors and predictands. Statistical Downscaling (SD) methods are used to achieve the climate change information at the fine resolution through the development of direct statistical relationships between large scale atmospheric circulation and local variables (such as precipitation and temperature).

Compared to dynamical downscaling, the statistical method is relatively easy to use and provides station-scale climate information from GCM-scale outputs (Wilby et al., 2002). Thus, statistical downscaling methods are the most widely used in anticipated hydrologic impact studies under climate-change scenarios. The main advantages of statistical downscaling are that they are cheap, computationally undemandable and readily transferable, providing local information most needed in many climate change impact applications and ensembles of climate scenarios permit risk or uncertainty analyses.
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Salathe (2005) conducted a study to simulate stream flow in the Yakima River, a mountainous basin in Washington, USA, to illustrate how model differences affect stream flow simulations. The downscaling is applied to the output of three models (ECHAM4, HADCM3, and NCAR-PCM) for simulations of historic conditions (19002000) and two future emissions scenarios (A2 and B2 for 20002100) from the IPCC assessment. The ECHAM4 simulation closely reproduces the observed statistics of temperature and precipitation for the 42 year period 194990. Stream flow computed from this climate simulation likewise produces similar statistics to stream flow computed from the observed data. Charles (2007) used four climate model simulations forced by the SRES A2 emission scenario: the CSIRO Mk3 GCM, the CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM, run at high spatial resolution over Australia with far-field forcing from the Mk3 GCM), the Hadley Centre HadAM3P GCM and the Max Planck Institute ECHAM4 GCM. The nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM), a stochastic downscaling model, was used to quantify the impacts of the projected climate change on multi-site, daily precipitation. A catchment water balance model (LUCICAT), calibrated under existing conditions, and was driven by the downscaled precipitation to produce runoff projections. Biases in climate model reproduction of the season cycles of the atmospheric predictors used in downscaling are shown to have significant impacts on simulated precipitation, and hence runoff. The downscaled CCAM and Mk3 results project reductions in annual precipitation ranging from 12 to 14% by mid century (20352064), resulting in a decline in runoff ranging from 30 to 44%. Downscaling the HadAM3P output, available at the daily time step only for the period 20702099, produces a precipitation decline of 24% and a runoff reduction of 69%. The ECHAM4 downscaled precipitation inadequately reproduced the observed annual cycle and so was not used for runoff projection.

Nearing (2001) used output from two GCMs (HadCM3 and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis CGCM1) and relationships between monthly precipitation and rainfall erosivity (the power of rain to cause soil erosion) to assess potential changes in rainfall erosivity in the USA. The predicted changes were significant, and in many cases very large, but results between models differed both in magnitude and regional distributions. Zhang et al. (2005) used HadCM3 to assess potential changes in rainfall erosivity in the
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Huanghe River Basin of China. Increases in rainfall erosivity by as much as 11 to 22% by the year 2050 were projected across the region.

Flows and sediment Modelling

Surface runoff and soil erosion as well as many of the factors controlling both will be directly or indirectly affected by climate change impact. Increasing precipitation amounts and intensities cause non linear responses of runoff and soil loss. The variation of local precipitation and temperature regimes implicate shifts in vegetation cover, soil conditions, land use and management which will affect runoff, erosion and the translocation of sediments and environmental pollutants to surface waters. Recent concern about the impact of global change on the Earth system has

emphasized the impact of climate change resulting from the increased emission of greenhouses gases and associated global warming, it is important to consider other measures of the functioning of the system. Soil erosion rates and the sediment loads transported by the worlds rivers provide an important and sensitive indicator of changes in the operation of the Earth system and, as indicated above, widespread changes in erosion rates and sediment flux can have important repercussions and give rise to significant socio-economic and environmental problems.

Precipitation and runoff are direct driving forces of soil erosion and sediment transport. Variation of precipitation will surely lead to the changes of surface runoff, soil erosion and sediment dynamics. Response of soil erosion and sediment transport to precipitation change has become an important issue under changing climate (West and Wali, 2002; Yang et al., 2003).

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5.0 5.1

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Study area To achieve the objectives of present study, the Naran watershed is selected as study

area. It is the upper part of Kunhar River having 1036 square km basin area. The basin has the mountainous characteristics. This river contributes water into Jhelum River and ultimately to Mangla reservoir. Exhaustive literature will be reviewed related to climate change impact on flows and sediment yields from mountainous watershed to get real insight to problem causes and its assessment approaches. 5.2 Data Needed Historic data of following parameters will be required to conduct this research. Within study area WAPDA-SWHP has established climatological stations at Sail ul Malook and Shogran. A hydrological station exist at Naran is collecting flows and sediment concentrations measurements. Pakistan Meteorological Department and any other source will also be helpful and will be contacted for more data. 5.3 Daily temperature (min. and max) Daily precipitation data Daily flow data Instantaneous suspended concentration Annual suspended load Topographic, DEM Soil data Land use and land cover Other data related with flows and sediment yield Data Analysis

The following analysis will be performed to examine the climate change in the study area. Minimum temperature trends Maximum temperature trends Precipitation trends Flow trends Sediment trends
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 5.4

Interpretation of trends with climate change parameters Delineate the watershed and divide into sub basins and elevation zones using GIS tool. Draw/develop the rainfall, land cover and soil distribution map in GIS Model. Projection of historical trends with the climate parameters Above determined trends will be extended using statistical downscaling techniques

for following variables: 5.5 For temperatures For precipitation Modelling for Flows and Sediments Yield

The flows and sediment yields will be computed in following sequence: Selecting an appropriate hydrologic and sediment trap Model. Calibration of the Model Validation of the Model Computing sediments yield with corresponding scenarios

SHETRAN Model will be initialized and input will be given for Naran basin such as spatial data, physical properties of soil, meteorological data and simulation parameters. Base run will be performed and result will be calibrated and will be validated with existing collected data. Simulation of sediment yield will be performed for various scenarios derived from interpretation and extension of climate change.

5.6

Assessment of future sediment yield

Assessment of future sediment will be extracted from above computation cycle and will be presented as the outcome of research in an appropriate format.

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6.0

PROBABLE RESULTS AND EXPECTED BENEFITS / CONTRIBUTION OF RESEARCH WORK Probable outcome of this proposed research will be some quantifiable figures of

future sediment yield in view of local climate change of chosen basin. It may make planners, decision makers and designers a bit comfortable in front of uncertainty and risk of climate change while performing their responsibilities Present Climate Change threats are based upon theories while this research will help in confirming some basin-specific realistic computation which is yet a knowledge gap. It may create new dimensions of analysis for research and provide an alternate way and approach of thinking for functioning. Scientific Personnel Scientific Personnel required to support research task will be handled by under scholar.

Institutional Facilities Existing Institutional Facilities seems to be sufficient.

Research Funds Research Funds will be required to support research task to a tune of about 120 thousands Rupees for data purchase, soil samples collection and testing cost.

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Research Time schedule Sr 1 2 3 4 5 6

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Activities
Literature survey Data Collection Data analysis Modelling Analyzing Results Publication Research Thesis write up Preparing for exam

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

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References 1. Archer, D. R. (2003). Contrasting hydrological regimes in the upper Indus Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 274: 198210. 2. Archer, D. R. Fowler, H .J. (2004). Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications. Hydrology and Earth System Science, 8: 4761 3. Charles, S.P., Bari, M.A., Kitsiosb, A. and Batesa, B.C. (2007). Effect of GCM bias on downscaled precipitation and runoff projections for the Serpentine catchment, Western Australia. International Journal of Climatology. 27: 16731690. 4. Hingane, L. S., Kumar, K. R. and B. V. R. Murty, (1985). Long term trends of surface air temperature in India. International journal of Climatology, 5: 521528. 5. Kostaschuk, Ray, Dan Shugar, Jim Best, Dan Parsons, Stuart Lane, Rich Hardy, and Oscar Orfeo (2002), Suspended sediment transport and deposition over a dune: Ro Paran, Argentina, Earth Surf Process Landforms, 34(12), 1605 6. Li, C. and Tang, M. (1986). Changes in air temperature in Qinghai- Xizang Plateau and its neighborhood in the recent 30 years. Plateau Meteor. 5: 332341. 7. Michael Hupfer, Dominik Zak, Reingard Roberg, Christiane Herzog, Rosemarie Pthig Evaluation of a well-established sequential phosphorus fractionation technique for use in calcite-rich lake sediments: identification and prevention of artifacts due to apatite formation 2005. Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Mggelseedamm 301, D-12587 Berlin, Germany 8. Nearing, M.A. 2001. Potential changes in rainfall erosivity in the U.S. with climate change during the 21st century. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 56(3):229-232 9. O'Neal M.R., Nearing M.A., Vining R.C., Southworth J., Pfeifer R.A. . 2005. Climate change impacts on soil erosion in Midwest United States with changes in crop management. Catena 61:165-184. 10. Pfeifer, R.A and Habeck M., 2002. Farm level economic impacts of climate change. PP. 159-178. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Massachusetts. 11. Pruski, F.F. and Nearing M.A. 2002a. Climate-induced changes in erosion during the 21st century for eight U.S. locations. Water Resources Research 38(12): article no. 1298 12. Salathe, E. P. (2005): Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modeling. International journal of Climatology, 25: 419 436. 13. Shrestha, R., Wake, P. A., Mayewski. and Dibb, J. (1999). Maximum temperature trends in the Himalaya and its vicinity: An analysis based on temperature records from Nepal for the period 197194. Journal of Climate, 12: 27752786.
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14. Singh, P. and Kumar, N. (1997). Impact assessment of climate change on the hydrological response of a snow and glacier melt runoff dominated Himalayan River. Journal of Hydrology, 193: 316330. 15. Souchere, V., Cerdan, O., Dubreuil, N., Le Bissonnais, Y., King, C., 2005. Modelling the impact of agri- environmental scenarios on overland flow in a cultivated catchment (Normandy, France). Catena, 61: 229-240. 16. Southworth, Jane, J. Randolph, M. Harbeck, O. Doering, R. Pfeifer, D. Rao, J. Johnston. 2000. Consequences of future climate change and changing climate variability on maize yields in the Midwestern United States, Agriculture, Ecosystems, and the Environment, 82:139-158. 17. West, T.O. and Wali, M.K., 2002. Modeling regional carbon dynamics and soil erosion in disturbed and rehabilitated ecosystems as affected by land use and climate. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 138: 141-163. 18. White, W.R. 1990, Reservoir sedimentation and flushing, Hydrology in Mountainous Regions. H - Artificial Reservoirs; Water and Slopes (Proceedings of two Lausanne Symposia, August 1990). IAHS Publ. no. 194, 1990 19. White, W.R. 2000, Flushing of sedimentation from Reservoir Contributing paper Prepared for Thematic Review IV.5: Operation, Monitoring and Decommissioning of Dams 20. Yang, D., Kanae, S., Oki, T., Koike, T., and Musiake, K., 2003. Global potential soil erosion with reference to land use and climate changes. Hydrological Processes, 17: 2913-2928. 21. Zhang X.C., Nearing M.A. . 2005. Impact of climate change on soil erosion, runoff, and wheat productivity in central Oklahoma. Catena 61:185-195. 22. Zhang, M.H., W.Y. Lin, S.A. Klein, J.T. Bacmeister, S. Bony, R.T. Cederwall, A.D. Del Genio, J.J. Hack, N.G. Loeb, U. Lohmann, P. Minnis, I. Musat, R. Pincus, P. Stier, M.J. Suarez, M.J. Webb, J.B. Wu, S.C. Xie, M.-S. Yao, and J.H. Zhang, 2005: Comparing clouds and their seasonal variations in 10 atmospheric general circulation models with satellite measurements. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D15S02, doi:10.1029/2004JD005021.

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COMMENTS OF SUPERVISOR

Signature of Supervisor

Signature of Student

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No: CEWRE/SYNOP/11/

Dated: ----------------

The above proposal duly recommended by the Centres Board of Studies in its meeting held on 08.02.2012 is hereby forwarded to the Director of Research, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore for obtaining the approval of the Vice-Chancellor.

(Prof. Dr. Muhammad Latif) Director, CEWRE.

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