FORMULAS FOR ESTIMATING POPULATION MEANS

POPULATION IS NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED Use normal distribution and the formula POPULATION IS NOT NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED Use normal distribution and the formula

x n>30 (Sample size is greater Use than 30)

z x x + z x
2
x

x z x x + z x
2 2

n
if is known Use

n
if is known

otherwise use x =

s n

otherwise use

s n

Use normal distribution and the formula n 30 (Sample x x size is 2 2 less or equal to CANNOT USE NORMAL OR t 30) x Use DISTRIBUTION And is known Use t distribution and the formula n 30 (Sample x x size is 2 2 less or equal to 30) x Use And is not known S is the standard deviation of the sample is the standard deviation of the population.

xz

x+z

x t

x +t

FORMULA FOR ESTIMATING POPULATION PERCENTAGE:

p(100 p ) / n and,

p z p p + z
2 2

IF YOU ARE USING NORMAL DISTRIBUTION:

USE

z =1.645 for 90% level of confidence

2

USE

z =1.96 for 95% level of confidence

2

USE

z =2.575 for 99% level of confidence

2

IF YOU ARE USING t DISTRIBUTION: To use the t-distribution table on page A-11 on your textbook you need to know the t level and df, t level is listed below and df is just the sample size minus 1. So for sample size n=10 df=9. USE

t = t .05
2

for 90% level of confidence

USE 2

t = t .025 for 95% level of confidence t =t

.005 for 99% level of confidence USE 2 SOLVED EXAMPLES CONFIDENCE INTERVALS:

PROBLEM 1. If x = 364.1, and s = 61.7, and n=100, construct a confidence interval for using 99% level of confidence.

ANSWER: We want to estimate the mean of the population. Notice the notation we are given s and x which means we are given the mean of the sample and the Standard deviation of the sample. We have neither the mean ( ) nor the Std. Dev. ( ) of the population. Take a look at the above table on the reading assignment folder. Since n 30 We use the formula:

x z x x + z x
2 2

And since we have s instead of we use

Now, compute

s n

s 61 .7 = = 6.17 n 100

Back to the above table, we see that for 99% confidence we use z

=2.575

Since x = 364.1, We have that the interval is: 348.2 = 364.1 2.575(6.17) 364.1 + 2.575(6.17) = 379.9 The meaning of this is that the population mean is between 348.2 and 379.9 with 99% certainty.

PROBLEM 2. In a 1930 study of blood lines it was determined that out of a random sample of 120 resident of Cuba 75 had O type of blood. a. What is the point estimate of the percent of people with O blood in Cuba? b. Estimate the standard error. c. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the percent of people who had O type of blood. ANSWER: a. Out of 120, 75 had type O blood. The point estimate is p=75/120=0.625=62.5% b. Standard error is computed by using the formula:

so

p(100 p ) / n

= 62.5(100 62.5) / 120 = 4.4

c. The interval is constructed by using the formula:

p z
2

p + z
2

Since

z = 1 . 96 , p = 62 . 5 ,
2

= 4 .4

The interval is

53 . 8 = 62 . 5 1 . 96 ( 4 . 4 ) 62 . 5 + 1 . 96 ( 4 . 4 ) = 71 . 1
So the actual percentage of the population is between 53.8 and 71.1 with 95% certainty.

PROBLEM 3. Twelve (12) patients were randomly selected out of a population. They were submitted to exercise and their oxygen consumption was measured. Here are the readings: 9.7, 21,14.3,15.2,12.8,8.6,10.9,8.3,19.1,7.0,19.5,12.5 d. What is the point estimate of the mean of their oxygen consumption? e. Calculate standard error of the mean. f. Construct a 90 % confidence interval for the population mean. ANSWER: We need to compute the mean ( x ) and the standard deviation (s) of the sample. Using s = a. x = 13.24 b.

(x x)
n 1

and x =

x
n

we obtain s=4.69 and x = 13.24

4 . 69 s = = 1 . 35 12 n

Look at the above table attachment on the reading assignment folder. Since the sample size is less than 30 and the population Std. Dev. is unknown we need to use the tdistribution. Also you see that Now for 90%, and df=n-1=12-1=11 we find:

t
Using the formula

= 1 . 796

x t
2

x + t
2

we have:

10 . 8 = 13 . 24 1 . 796 (1 . 35 ) 13 . 24 + 1 . 796 (1 . 35 ) = 15 . 6
So the interval is between 10.8 and 15.6 with 90% certainty.

PROBLEM 4. An IQ test was administered to a random sample of 26 mental patients the mean of the sample was 97.6. We know that the IQ scores are normally distributed and have a Std. Dev. of 15. Construct a 90% confidence interval for the IQ of this population of mental patients. ANSWER: Look at the above table. Since the population is normally distributed, and we know the Std. Dev. of the population we can use the normal distribution. 15 = = 2 . 94 and z = 1.645 So standard error x = n 26 2

So

x z x x + z x
2 2

Becomes: 92.7 = 97.6 1.645(2.94) 97.6 + 1.645(2.94) = 102.4 So the interval is between 92.7 and 102.4 with 90% certainty.

SOLVED EXAMPLES HYPOTHESIS TESTS:

PROBLEM 1 A population of normal subjects has a mean of 20.9 on the logical memory test. A study reported in the American Journal of Psychiatry of a random sample of 32 schizophrenic patients had a mean of 12.8 on this test and a standard deviation of 6.98. Test the hypothesis at the 0.01 level that the mean score for all schizophrenic patients on the Logical Memory Test is 20.9

Answer:

H 1 : 20.9 Step 2. = 0.01

Step 3. We use the z distribution because the sample size is greater than 30. Step 4. This is a two-tailed test because we are testing whether the mean is EQUAL to 20.9. The alternative to equal is not equal. (Remember that the Null hypothesis is always an equality). With = 0.01 the rejection region would be 0.01 divided by two on each one of the tails. So 0.005 is at each tail.

Step 1.

H 0 : = 20.9

The area between the mean and the z value (as indicated in the graph above is 0.5-005=0.4950. This means that by taking this area and going to the table you get z = 2.575 Step 5. The Acceptance region of Ho (the White section of the curve) is bounded by z=-2.575 on the left and by z = 2.575 on the right. Which means that if the z from our sample is within 2.575 and 2.575 we accept Ho otherwise we accept the alternative. Step 6. Data x = 12.8, s = 6.98; n = 32 . Since is unknown (we only know s)we use

x =

s n

6 . 98 32

= 1 . 234

Then our z from our sample is z =

x 0

12.8 20.9 = 6.565 1.234

Step 7. Since the value from our sample z = -6.565 is not inside the acceptance region we reject the Null hypothesis. So in conclusion the evidence suggests that the mean for the schizophrenic patients is not 20.9.

PROBLEM 2 The mean score on a 10-item calculus concepts test for all students enrolled in a traditional calculus course was 9.64. A random sample of 41 students in a project CALC calculus course is given the same test, and the mean and the std. Dev. for the sample are 11.52 and 7.06 respectively. Test the hypothesis at the 0.05 level that the mean score for all project CALC students on this test is higher than 9.64. Answer:

H 1 : > 9.64 Step 2. = 0.05

Step 3. We use the z distribution because the sample size is greater than 30. Step 4. This is a one-tailed test because we are testing whether the mean is greater than 9.64. Remember that the Null hypothesis is always an equality. With = 0.05 the rejection region would be 0.05 on the right tail.

Step 1.

H 0 : = 9.64

The area between the mean and the z value (as indicated in the graph above is 0.5-.05=0.45. This means that by taking this area and going to the table you get z = 1.645 Step 5. The Acceptance region of Ho (the White section of the curve) is bounded by z=1.645. Which means that if the z from our sample is less than 1.645 we accept Ho otherwise we accept the alternative. Step 6. Data x = 11.52, s = 7.06; n = 41 . Since is unknown (we only know s)we use

x =

s 7 .06 = = 1 . 1026 n 41

Then our z from our sample is z =

x 0

11.52 9.64 = 1 .7 1.1026

Step 7. Since the value from our sample z = 1.7 is not inside the acceptance region we reject the Null hypothesis. So in conclusion the evidence suggests that the mean for the CALC project students is greater than 9.64.

PROBLEM 3 the former manager of the jewelry department at Lacys Department store claimed that the mean daily sales was $2,150. Heather is hired as the new manager. Heather randomly selects 7 days and find the following daily sales figures 1,198 2080 1130 1510 2821 2777 4977

Assuming that the sales are normally distributed, test the hypothesis that the mean daily sales is higher than $2150, use the 0.01 level of significance.

Answer:

H 1 : > 2150 Step 2. = 0.01

Step 3. We use the t distribution because the sample size is smaller than 30, and the sales distribution is assumed normal. Step 4. This is a one-tailed test because we are testing whether the mean is greater than 2150. Remember that the Null hypothesis is always an equality. With = 0.01 the rejection region would be 0.01 on the right tail.

Step 1.

H 0 : = 2150

with this level of 0.01 and n=7 we find df=6 and the value for t=3.143. Step 5. The Acceptance region of Ho (the White section of the curve) is bounded by t=3.143. Which means that if the t from our sample is less than 3.143 we accept Ho otherwise we accept the alternative. Step 6. Data n = 7, x = 16,493 / 7 = 2356.14 . To calculate s we do

Day1 Day2 Day3 Day4

x 1198 2080 1130 1510

x 2356.14 2356.14 2356.14 2356.14

x- x -1158.14 -276.14 -1226.14 -846.14

(x- x )2 1342195 76254.88 1503426 715957.7

Day5 Day6 Day7 Total

2821 2777 4977 16493

2356.14 2356.14 2356.14

464.85 420.85 2620.85

216092.2 177120.7 6868892 10899039

So s =

(x x)

n 1 s 1347.78 So, x = = = 509.412 n 7

Then our t from our sample is t =

1089039 = 1,347.78 6

x 0

2356.14 2150 = .4047 509.412

Step 7. Since the value from our sample z = .4047 it is inside the Ho acceptance region we accept the Null hypothesis. In conclusion the evidence suggests that the mean is actually around 2150.

PROBLEM 4 Professor M. believes that only 33 percent of college students have a job while attending school. A student thinks the professor has underestimated the zeal of his peers. A random sample of 49 students showed that 17 of them worked after school. At the 0.01 level determine who is likely to be correct.

Answer:

H 1 : > 33 Step 2. = 0.01

Step 3. We use the z distribution. Step 4. This is a one-tailed test because we are testing whether the mean is greater than 33. Remember that the Null hypothesis is always an equality. With = 0.01 the rejection region would be 0.01 on the right tail.

Step 1.

H 0 : = 33

The area between the mean and the z value (as indicated in the graph above is 0.5-.01=0.49. This means that by taking this area and going to the table you get z = 2.33 Step 5. The Acceptance region of Ho (the White section of the curve) is bounded by z=2.33. Which means that if the z from our sample is less than 2.33 we accept Ho otherwise we accept the alternative.

(100 ) 17 33(67) = 34.69%, p = = = 6.71 . n 49 49 p 34.69 33 = 0.25 Then our z from our sample is z = = p 6.71
Step 6. Data p = Step 7. Since the value from our sample z = .25 is inside the acceptance region we accept the Null hypothesis. So in conclusion the evidence suggests that the percentage of students that work is actually pretty close to 33.

PROBLEM 5 A contractor claim its consulting services cost the government an average of $10,000 per consultation. A random sample of 15 consulting fees is examined, and its found that the sample mean is $10,575. The standard deviation of this sample is $600 If the population of consulting fees is normally distributed, is there sufficient evidence at the 0.05 level to suggest that the contractor averages more than $ 10,000 per consultation?

Answer:

H 1 : > 10,000 Step 2. = 0.05

Step 3. We use the t distribution because the sample size is less than 30. Step 4. This is a one-tailed test because we are testing whether the mean is greater than 10,000. Remember that the Null hypothesis is always an equality. With = 0.05 the rejection region would be 0.05 on the right tail.

Step 1.

H 0 : = 10,000

with 0.05 level and n=15 we find t = 1.761 Step 5. The Acceptance region of Ho (the White section of the curve) is bounded by t=1.761. Which means that if the t from our sample is less than 1.761 we accept Ho otherwise we accept the alternative. Step 6. Data x = 10,575, s = 600; n = 15 . Since is unknown (we only know s)we use

x =

s 600 = = 154 .92 n 15

Then our z from our sample is t =

x 0

10,575 10,000 = 3.71 154.92

Step 7. Since the value from our sample t=3.71 is not inside the acceptance region we reject the Null hypothesis. So in conclusion the evidence suggests that the mean for the contracting fees is actually higher than 10,000.