Beruflich Dokumente
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Singapore
THEREALDEALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
Looking To 2013
Project launches next year. Excluding en-bloced and Executive Condominium sites, around 21 already-sold sites are expected to be launched next year. We examine the remainder of the Government Land Sales (GLS) sites that have been sold and compare them to launches and secondary market transactions nearby. We will be focusing on the Farrer and Tanah Merah areas; Farrer sites were one of the highest-priced GLS sites, while Tanah Merah is seeing an explosive incoming supply. Interest in Farrer could be revived. Evidently, sites on Farrer have had slower take-up rates relative to mass-market projects. Under changes announced by SLA recently, the project completion period for residential en-bloc sites will now start from date of the collective sale order, instead of the date of the issue of a Qualifying Certificate. This may prompt developers to en-bloc larger sites, such as the en-bloc attempt for Tulip Gardens in 2007. Among the new sites, two sites that were hot favourites for small developers and funds and achieved the highest GLS prices, indicating there is still an innate price premium for the Farrer area. Explosive supply in Tanah Merah vicinity. Previously, supply in Tanah Merah was limited and coming solely from the secondary market. But it was clear that interest in future sites in the area was bound to spike when Optima@ Tanah Merah received an overwhelming take-up rate of over 98% within two months in mid-2009. YTD, GLS has released 1,863 units in the Tanah Merah vicinity. The recent top bid for New Upper Changi Road (Parcel A) was from Keppel Land at a land cost of SGD434.6m or SGD791.4psf, a 17.1% premium to the price at which Urban Vistas land was sold in August. Keppels site was also sold at 48% above the price that Far East, Fraser Centrepoint and Seikui House jointly paid for their Eco site. A reserve site just beside the Eco project will be launched in February 2013 and comprise approximately 600 units. In addition, a commercial site has been slated between Urban Vista and Optima @ Tanah Merah, which will be a hot seller as it is directly next to the Tanah Merah MRT station. However, the commercial sites date of availability is still indefinite. Figure 1: Year-to-date GLS sites sold yet to launch (ex-EC)
Award date Jan Jan Feb Mar Type Res Res Res Res Location Jalan Lempeng Mount Vernon Road Jervois Road Tende r price 408 388.1 118.9 243.2 252.8 165.9 369.8 210.1 301 383.3 113.2 114.8 285.2 291.5 45.8 245 244.1 516.3 434.6 505 $psf 554.4 495 880.7 638 417.9 471.3 705.9 416.5 508.2 527.6 1,048.5 628 676 719.8 1,107.6 793 615.5 960.3 791.4 852.8 Units 685 785 140 370 600 345 590 495 580 710 100 200 415 405 54 293 Developer IOI Corp CDL/ Hong Leong SingLand Kingsford Development Lakeside, FCL Topaz & Sekisui House Elitist Development MCL Land Capital Development Pte. Ltd. White Haven Properties Pte. Ltd. El Development Singland Santarli Corp Fragrance Group & World Class UVD (JV with Sing Land & UOL) Far East Soho Verwood Holdings and Intrepid Inv First Shine Properties Wingstar inv Metro Aus, Maxdin Keppel land Capitaland Project name Trilinq Mon Jervois Kingsford Hillview Peak
20 December 2012
Hillview Avenue Tampines Avenue 10/ Tampines Mar Res Avenue 1 Apr Res Elias Road/ Pasir Ris Drive 3 May Res Boon Lay Way (Jurong Gateway) Jun Res Pasir Ris Drive 3/ Pasir Ris Drive 10 Jun Res Buangkok Drive/ Sengkang Central Jun Res Sengkang Square / Compassvale Drive Jun Res Farrer Drive Jun Res Pheng Geck Avenue (Parcel B) Tanah Merah Kechil Road/ Tanah Aug Res Merah Kechil Link Aug Res Bright Hill Drive Aug Res Farrer Road Sep Res Tai Thong Crescent (Parcel C) Sept Res Dairy Farm Sept Res Prince Charles Crescent OCt Res New Upper Chang Road (Parcel A) Nov Res Bishan Street 14 Source: Company data, URA
La Fiesta
Urban Vista
700
MOST BIDDED SITE SITE FARRER ROAD FOR FARRER ROAD SITE
Farrer could be heating up. Two plots along Farrer were sold this year via the Reserve List. Situated along the bustling Farrer Road, the Farrer Road site attracted the most bidders a total of 15 bids, with Far East beating Soon Hock Tuas Development by a narrow 3.3%. The site achieved the highest psf in GLS this year, an ASP of SGD1,108psf. The site area is 2,741.5sqm, and could house approximately 54 units. The Farrer Drive site, nestled between Sommerville Grandeur and Sommerville Park, received a total of six bids and won by SingLand. It was 5.6% cheaper than the Farrer Road site sold just two months later. Potential value? While take-up of CapitaLands DLeedons was slow, Leedon Residences was recently launched, renewing optimism in the area. It has achieved a take-up rate of 25.7% since its launch in Oct 2012, and an ASP of SGD1,985psf. Current resale transactions of newer projects around Farrer, such as The Levelz and Waterfall Gardens, are achieving ASPs of SGD1,538psf YTD, approximately 29% cheaper than Leedon Residences and 4% cheaper than DLeedon. Figure 2: Farrer sites description
Maximum GFA (sq ft) Tenure No. of units Land cost (SGD m)/ psf (SGD) No. of bids offered nd Difference to 2 highest bid (%) Source: Company data Farrer Drive site 107,962.9 99 years 100 113.2/ 1,048.5 6 10.1% Farrer Road site 41,324 99 years 54 45.8/ 1,108 15 3.3%
Source: URA
Source: URA
20 December 2012
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Feb-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
East Meadow (99 Yr/98) Far East TOP 2002 Nov12 ASP SGD963psf
Commercial site PPR 2.8x Urban Vista (TBL) Fragrance Group & World Class Limited Land price SGD676psf Awarded Aug 12
GLS (Sold Oct12) Keppel Land Land price SGD434.6m/ 791.4psf Future Development
Eco (99Yr/12) TOP 2017 Far East, Fraser Centrepoint, Sekisui House Oct12 ASP SGD1,392psf Launched Sept12
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
Property Price Indices
Index SRPI Overall (Sept 12) URA PPI (3Q12) HDB Resale (3Q12) Level 171.1 208.0 197.9 Change +1.0% +0.5% +2.0% Reserve List
Site Stirling Road
20 December 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Alexandra View (parcel A) Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel C) Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel D) Jurong West Street 41/ Boon Lay Way (Parcel B) New Upper Changi Road / Bedok South Avenue 3 (Parcel B)
Collective Sales
Pending for offer
Site Land area (k sq m) 27.5 Land price (S$m) 330-340 $psf ppr 11451178 Land price (S$m) 77.5 590 192 92.2 132 106 74 40.3 Tender closes Nov 6
Confirmed List
Site Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2/ Ang Mo Kio Street 13 Jurong West Street 41/ Boon Lay Way (Parcel A) Source: HDB, URA Site area (ha) 1.8 2.2 Units 680 825 Est. launch date Available Available
20 December 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units City & Southwest (1-8) Reflections At Keppel Bay 1129 886 V On Shenton 510 290 Seahill 454 286 Cityscape @Farrer Park 250 162 Leedon Residence 381 80 Orchard/Tanglin/Holland (9-10) D'Leedon 1715 681 The Scotts Tower 231 94 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Edenz Suites 34 31 Eight Riversuites 862 384 Sky Green 176 150 The Viridian 108 48 East Coast (15-16) Eco 748 558 The Tampines Trilliant (EC) 670 600 Aura 83 51 21 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) The Palette 892 857 Parc Olympia 486 423 Hedges Park Condominium 501 423 Waterview 696 684 Watercolours 416 282 Palm Isles 429 363 Ripple Bay 679 633 My Manhattan 301 288 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Waterbay 383 305 Riversails 920 538 Bartley Residences 702 656 Heron Bay (EC) 394 370 River Isles The Luxurie Riversound Residence Boathouse Residences Haus@Serangoon Garden Flo Residence Kovan Regency West (22-24) Eco Sanctuary Hillsta Foresque Residences North (25-28) Skies Miltonia 1 Canberra (EC) Seletar Park Residence The Nautical Source: URA 610 622 590 493 97 530 393 483 416 496 420 665 276 435 553 558 487 460 85 520 379 140 275 430 339 350 229 390 78.5% 56.9% 63.0% 64.8% 21.0% 39.7% 40.7% 14 14 12 11 7 133 10 2267 2431 1624 1443 1862 1431 3459 Units sold todate Takeup rate (%)
Units sold (Nov)
20 December 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Secondary Market
Median
($psf)
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA
$psf Oct12 1,501 1,836 1,354 1,113 1,091 827 1,004 915 823
$psf Nov12 1,505 1,785 1,326 1,132 1,107 844 950 861 824
MoM % change 0.3 -2.8 -2.1 1.7 1.5 2.1 -5.4 -5.9 0.1
Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Sep12 5.0 4.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 2.8 3.2 2.9 2.8 $psf pm Oct12 4.8 4.5 3.6 3.5 3.3 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.5 MoM % Change -3.9 -0.9 -0.7 -3.6 -2.5 -0.4 -5.9 0.2 -10.1
91.2% 44.5% 85.2% 44.4% 74.6% 89.6% 41.2% 96.1% 87.0% 84.4% 98.3% 67.8% 84.6% 93.2% 95.7% 79.6% 58.5% 93.4% 93.9% 90.7% 89.7% 82.5% 93.3% 87.6% 98.1% 96.4% 29.0% 66.1% 86.7% 80.7% 52.6% 83.0% 89.7%
31 15 9 8 39 26 21 22 20 17 17 15 14 10 9 84 81 43 23 21 21 16 13 12 10 10 140 21 18 32 25 12 10
1329 1307 1400 1490 1408 806 1329 900 867 900 891 739 954 896 1176 743 858 1230 724 826 1142 868 958 1644 898 1293 1050 1066 1259 1182 724 1263 893
20 December 2012
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DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 1 3 6 9 9 10 10 10 11 17 18 18 19 19 19 19 Sentosa Landbank
20 December 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 20 560 118 122 20 203 178 156 1 78 35 605 125 46 785 12 207
City Dev
One Shenton (Marina Bay) Alexandra Road GLS site (Alexandra Road) South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Up @ Robertson Quay (Robertson Quay) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Nouvel 18 (Anderson Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) The Palette (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North (Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North) H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley Road) Haus @ Serangoon Garden (Serangoon Garden Way) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) 15, 19 & 21 Swiss Road (Swiss Club Road) Total Unsold Units
3,271 99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99 99 33 590 243 367 234 94 64 700 2,325 302 37 13 5 1,034 55 150 32 361 140 2,129 1 110 357 468 15 3 405 170 593 161 131 248 4 147 5 20 62 778 Freehold Freehold 71 83 154
KepLand
1 2 4 4 4 4 19 16
Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) The Luxurie (Sengkang Square) Tanah Merah Site (Tanah Merah) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Orchard Residences (Orchard Road) Wharf Residence (Tong Watt Road) D'Leedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences (Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units
CapitaLand
3 9 9 9 10 10 15 16 20 26
99Yr Freehold 99Yr 999Yr 99Yr Freehold Freehold 99Yr 99Yr Freehold
Ho Bee
Sentosa Sentosa 11
Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Trilight (Newton Road) Total Unsold Units Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bright Hill Drive (Bright Hill) St Patricks Road (Upper East Coast) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) The Surrento (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) Holland Residences (Taman Warna) Riverbay (Mar Thorma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thorma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Pavilion Park (Phase 2) (Bukit Batok Road) Total Unsold Units
UOL
2 16 19 16
Allgreen
2 5 9 10 12 12 21 23
Wheelock
9 10
Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units
20 December 2012
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20 December 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 500 2 300 73 3 878 56 40 24 88 221 80 232 146 887 249 29 9 595 66 66 33 24 2 22 1,285 38 42 157 11 66 156
Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah / Choon Guan) Sophia Residence (Mount Sophia) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) Goodwood Residence (Bukit Timah Road) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units
Bt Sembawang
4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28
Frasers Centrepoint
9 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27
Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Watertown (Punggol) Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Nouvel 18 (Anderson Road)
99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr
Wing Tai
9 10 10 11 23 10
Total Unsold Units 11 10 15 16 17 22 Palms @ Sixth Avenue (Six Avenue ) NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Uber 388 (Upper East Cost) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Boon Lay (Jurong East) Total Unsold Units 9 9 9 9 Sentosa The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) Sculptura Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99Yr Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99Yr 99Yr
MCL Land
SC Global
14377
20 December 2012
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20 December 2012
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Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 20 December 2012, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. As of 20 December 2012, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analysts compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
20 December 2012
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