Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
William P. Sakel, ASA, MAAA David Waddington, PMP Moderator Robert B. Hardin, FSA, MAAA, FCA
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Agenda
Update from SOA Group Life Experience Committee One approach to creating a set of Group Life Manual Rates How to use census data to answer questions important to Group Life actuaries.
Experience Committee
Two products were produced in 2005/6
2005 Group Term Life Waiver of Premium Table 2006 Group Term Life Experience Report
Committee was led by Sue Sames assisted by John Bettano and Marty Loughlin plus another almost 12 actuaries
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Krieger Table
The Krieger Table was the defacto WOP table Based on data from 12 companies 135,000 life years of experience Published in the 1968 SOA Reports Never presented to or adopted by NAIC Used by most Group Life Insurers
Data call were issued in 2002 Data submissions were in 2003 and 2004 Final reports were issued in 2006
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Pivot Table
Provides data by:
Individual Exposure vs. Self-Administered Death, WOP, and AD&D Gender Central Age (17 and up) SIC (two digit) Lives Band (# of lives in group) Coverage type (basic, optional, and supplemental) for AD&D only
Current Status
Starting to update the 2006 Experience Table Have decided not to update the 2005 Waiver Table at this time Draft of data request completed Vendor has been selected: Towers Watson Data request will go out in early June Hope to be done by end of 2012
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Overview of Agenda
Review of 2006 Group Life Study Interpolate, Smooth and Compare to Current Modeling results Additional Pricing Considerations Considerations of Implementation Presentation Summary
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Excluded Groups
Retiree lives Dependent coverage Conversions Experience under Continuation of Coverage or portability Mass marketed business
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Interpolation
Smoothing
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Modeling Results
Compare to your current table to determine level of mortality improvement by age and gender
Modeled by Case level: High/low ages, High/low female content
Compare the mortality discounts to your current underwriting discounts: market adjustment vs. risk adjustment Compare results using the new table to actual sold cases to determine levels for new underwriting discounts
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Considerations of Implementation
Table(s) development DOI approval Rater(s) changes Algorithm, Factors or both Web, Intercompany LAN, and/or Spreadsheet Input screens, edits and factor page Billings System(s) and Rate Renewal System(s) Testing to insure results are correct and consistent across all raters and systems
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Presentation Summary
Care should be exercised in applying the results. State filings, as required Interpolation and Smoothing of the mortality factors to generate graduated experience values Additional tables or factors Retiree and Dependent factors Waiver and Conversions costs Standard Industry Code Risk and Market Adjustments (Underwriting Discounts) Testing and Modeling Results in Rater(s) and System(s) Develop a Management Report that identifies anticipated mortality improvements by age brackets and genders
6/22/2011
Mortality Data from the U.S. Census Bureaus Population Estimates and Projections Programs
David Waddington Chief, Population Projections Branch Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
Presentation Prepared for the Society of Actuaries 2011 Health Meeting Boston, Massachusetts, June 13-15, 2011
This presentation is released to inform interested parties of ongoing work and to encourage discussion of work in progress. Any views expressed on statistical, methodological, technical, or operational issues are those of the author and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.
Outline
Overview of the Population Estimates and Projections Programs Population Projections Methodology and Assumptions Historical and Projected Mortality Trends Accessing and Using the Data
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Population Estimates
(what we publish)
Population
National, state, and county by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin Incorporated place and minor civil division totals Puerto Rico Commonwealth and municipios by age and sex
Releases
Annually
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Population Projections
Population
National by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin
Components of Change
Net international migration by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin Deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin Births by sex, race and Hispanic origin
Releases
2008 National Projections, using Census 2000 2009 4 national level analytic series, using Census 2000 2012 (planned) national, using Census 2010 base
Projections of Net International Migration for the United States: 2010 to 2050
(In thousands) 2008 National Projections High NIM Series Low NIM Series Constant NIM Series Zero NIM Series
500
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
NIM = Net International Migration Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 and 2009.
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2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
NIM = Net International Migration Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 and 2009.
0 to 17 years
75
40
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008.
2030
2050
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Projected Distribution of the Population by Race and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2010 to 2050
(Percent)
2010
79.5 76.6 74.0
2030
2050
64.7
55.5
46.3
30.2 23.0 16.0 12.9 13.0 13.0 4.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 6.3 7.8 0.2 0.2 0.3 3.7 1.8 2.6
White
Black
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008. Hispanics may be of any race. Race refers to race alone
Asian
Hispanic
Methodology
Cohort-Component Method P2 = P1 + B - D + NM
where : P1 = Population at time 1 P2 = Population at time 2 B = Births D = Deaths NM = Net migration
Estimates
Benchmarked to the Census Calculated using the cohort-component method
Components of change come from the latest administrative records and vital statistics
Projections
Based on the Census Calculated using the cohort-component method
Components of change are projected out into the future based on assumptions and historical trends
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Fertility Assumptions
Time series analysis of vital statistics data from 19802003 Projected in two tiers
Three large race/ethnic groups
Hispanic Non-Hispanic Black alone All other non-Hispanic
Fertility is projected to converge in 2100 near replacement level (2.1) for all groups Assignment of race to births
Race of potential mothers (women age 15-49) Racial composition of men in the projected population Observed racial/ethnic makeup of families from Census 2000
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Mortality Assumptions
Time series analysis of vital statistics data from 1984-2003 Projected in two tiers
Three large race/ethnic groups
Hispanic Non-Hispanic Black alone All other non-Hispanic
Detailed race within the big three groups (did not differentiate assumptions below the big three groups)
Mortality projected to converge for all race/ethnic groups in 2075 (Male e0 = 83.8, Female e0= 87.8)
85 35
80 30
75
70
10
Male Female
0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
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85 35
80 30
75
70
Male Female
10
0 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049
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Downloadable Files
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Examples:
CDR2030 = 3,316,342 1,000 = 8.92 (370,297,901 + 373,503,674) / 2
Female
ASDR2030,age = 50 = 5,153 1,000 = 2.31 ( 2,174,749 + 2,278,777) / 2
Male
ASDR2030,age = 50 = 9,131 1,000 = 4.15 (2,152,279 + 2,249,458) / 2
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350
300
ASDR
250
200
150
100
50
0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Age
Note: ASDR per 1,000 population Source: 2008 National Projections
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Contact Information
David Waddington Chief, Population Projections Branch Population Division U.S. Census Bureau
Office: 301-763-2428 Fax: 301-763-6636 E-mail: David.G.Waddington@census.gov www.census.gov
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