Joumal of Marketing Management 2005, 21, 755-778

Mark M. H. , Determining Customer Satisfaction Fiona Davies% From Mobile Phones: Luiz Moutinho^ and A Neural Network Approach Ahmad Jamal^
Over the last few years, the number of mobile phones in the world lias increased at an exponential rate with many developed countries reaching 60% ownership rates. The reasons for this are numerous, however low prices and the availability of new technology mean that even children now own and regularly use mobile phones. Furthermore, the number of mobile phones in the world lias already passed the number of fixed land lines and the revenue from mobiles phones will soon exceed that of fixed land lines (ITU 2001). Viis paper explores the relationships between a number of key input factors and customers' overall satisfaction with their mobile phone, and develops a neural netivork model to predict the overall level of customer satisfaction derived from mobile phones in the UK. Vie final model uses eleven input factors, the most important of which are experience of product quality, level of service charges, level of call charges, and level of satisfaction with the service provider. The estimated neural network model predicted very well and appears to be very robust. Finally, the implications of these results for marketers are discussed.

Cardiff Business School" Glasgow University^

Keywords: consumer behaviour, experience of product quality, predicting customer satisfacfion, neural networks and mobile phones Introduction The purpose of this research is to identify some of the key determinants of customer satisfaction for mobile phones utilising both multiple regression and neural network analysis. Some widely reported determinants of 1 Correspondence: Mark M. H. Goode, CARBS, Cardiff University, Aberconway Building, Colum Drive, Cardiff, CFIO 3EU. United Kingdom, email
goode@cardiff.ac.uk

ISSN0267-257X/2005/7-8/00755 + 23 8.00/0

Westburn Publishers Ltd.

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Mark M. H. Goode, Fiona Davies, Luiz Moutinho and Ahmad Jamal

customer satisfaction include service quality, expectations, disconfirmation, performance, desires, affect and equity (Churchill and Suprenant 1982; Glenn et al. 1998; Levesque and McDougall 1996; Oliver 1993; Patterson et al. 1997; Spreng, et al 1996; Szymanski and Henard 2001). However, there can be potentially many determinants of customer satisfaction as the dimensions underlying satisfaction judgements are global rather than specific (Rust and Oliver 1994). For instance, the exploration of the use of evaluative criteria in forming performance expectations has had a major impact on the study of consumer behaviour (Bettman 1970; Fishbein 1963; Fishbein and Ajzen 1975; Oliver 1993 1997; Mittal and Tsiros 1999; Rosenberg 1950). The evaluative criteria can include objective attributes such as price, brand name, country of origin or subjective attributes such as quality, comfort and design (see, for example, Grapentine 1995; Myers and Shocker 1981). However, in the case of mobile phones, one could argue that the customer satisfaction for mobile phones is likely to be dependent on attribute importance judgements related to the physical product (e.g., Nokia) as well as on attribute importance judgements related to the services offered by the service provider (say for example, Vodaphone). This is due to the fact that the physical product, in this case, a mobile phone, and service elements, constitute key subsystems of an overall consumption system w^hereby products and services are consumed over fime in multiple episodes (Mittal and Tsiros 1999). A similar example is the automotive consumption system where the automobile and dealership service act as the key subsystems with product and service attributes likely to interact and iriform one another in determining overall satisfaction towards the cars (Mittal and Tsiros 1999). However, to the best of our knowledge, no previous study has looked into the effects of product related attributes (e.g., price, brand perceptions, quality, opinion of others towards the product) and service provider related attributes (e.g., levels of service and call charges, overcharging by service provider) in determining overall satisfaction towards the mobile phone. The current paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature. In doing so, the paper explores the effect of individual consumer differences (e.g. age and gender) and customer expertise. This is mainly because prior research indicates that the effect of product attributes could be moderated by individual consumer differences and customer expertise (Alba and Hutchinson 1987; Bettman and Park 1980; Goode and Moutinho 1995; Johnson and Russo 1984; Voss et al 1998). Therefore this paper makes four important contribufions to the literature. First, the paper, with the help of empirical evidence, demonstrates that there is a 'carry-over' effect of evaluation of service providers' attributes on overall safisfacfion towards the mobile phone. Secondly, the paper demonstrates that one of the key determinants of satisfacfion towards the mobile phone is

Determining Customer Satisfaction From Mobile Phones

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positive experience with the mobile phone's product quality. Thirdly, the paper provides insights into some of the key determinants of satisfaction in a high involvement product category, whereas most previous satisfaction studies have focused on low involvement and non-durable products (Patterson 1993). Finally, the paper uses a neural network approach to explain the critical effects of a number of antecedent variables on overall satisfaction with mobile phones. No prior research has utilised such an approach to predict determinants of customer satisfaction within the mobile phone market. Mobile phones were chosen for three critical reasons. Firstiy, their high involvement nature, secondly, their dominant position within the telecommunication market; and thirdly, their very high rate of ownership. The remainder of this paper is organised as follows: Section 1 provides a review of the literature in relation to the conceptual background of the study. This is followed by section 2, which provides an analysis of the mobile phone marketplace. Section 3 describes the research method used while Section 4 analyses the results from estimating the model. Finally, section 5 looks at the managerial implications and conclusions from this research. Conceptual Background: Customer Satisfaction Why Study Customer Satisfaction? Customer satisfaction is an important theoretical and practical issue for most marketers and consumer researchers (Westbrook 1980, Dabholkar et al. 1996; Goode and Moutinho 1996; Patterson 1993; Spreng et al. 1996; Fournier and Mick 1999; Meuter et al. 2000). According to Patterson (1993), customer satisfaction is a key issue for all those organisations that wish to create cmd keep a competitive advantage in today's highly competitive world. Furthermore, customer satisfaction can also provide important feedback about the quality of marketing decisions and is widely recognised as a key infiuence in the formation of customers' future purchase intentions (Taylor and Baker 1994). Satisfied customers are also likely to tell others of their favourable experiences and thus engage in positive word-of-mouth advertising (Richens 1983). It is also commonly argued that repeat purchase and word-of-mouth directly affects the viability and long-term profitability of a firm (Dabholkar et al. 1996). Determinants of Customer Satisfaction Customer safisfaction is generally described as a judgement that a customer develops after the act of purchase or consumption of a product or service (Churchill and Surprenant 1982; Fournier and Mick 1999). Some of the well established determinants of customer satisfaction include

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Mark M. H. Goode, Fiona Davies, Luiz Moutinho and Ahmad Jamal

expectations, disconfirmation of expectations, performance, ciffect and equity (Szymanski and Henard 2001). For instance, some argue that that customer satisfacfion is caused by expectations (Bearden and Teel 1983; Cadotte et al. 1987; Moutinho and Goode 1995). In other words, a customer is said to be satisfied when actual performance outcomes exceed expectations (positive disconfirmation), and one is said to be dissatisfied when expectations exceed performance outcomes (negative disconfirmation). However, others argue that customers develop norms for product performance based on general product experiences, and these, rather than expectations for a focal brand's performance, determine the confirmation/disconfirmation process. In other words, satisfaction judgements require experience with the product (Rust and Oliver 1994; Woodruff et al. 1983; Cadotte et al. 1987). These conflicting arguments highlight the need for the research reported here, as the current study takes the view that, in the case of mobile phones, experiences with the product quality are likely to infiuence customer satisfaction towards mobile phones. Since satisfacfion judgements are likely to be based on a broad range of issues (Taylor and Baker 1994; Patterson and Johnson 1993; Rust and Oliver 1994), there can be potentially many determinants of customer satisfaction as the dimensions underlying satisfaction judgements are global rather than specific (Rust and Oliver 1994). However, very little customer satisfaction research has reported the role of factors other than expectations, performance, disconfirmafion, past experience, affect and equity in the formation process leading to overall customer safisfaction (an exception to this is Moutinho and Goode 1995). For instance, the exploration of the use of evaluative criteria in forming performance expectations has had a major impact on the study of customer behaviour (Bettman 1970; Fishbein 1963; Fishbein and Ajzen 1975; Oliver 1993 1997; Mittal and Tsiros 1999; Rosenberg 1950). The evaluative criteria can include attributes like price, brand perceptions, quality, comfort and design (see, for example, Grapentine 1995; Lee and Lou 1996; Monroe and Dodds 1988; Myers and Shocker 1981; Rao and Monroe 1989; Richardson et al. 1994). For instance, brand perception has been shown to be a significant product attribute in forming performance expectations as customers are more likely to be familiar with the brand name than with all other product attributes (see for example, Bettman and Park 1980; Dodds, et al. 1991; Peterson and Jolibert 1976). For instance, within the mobile phone market, Tumbull, et al. (2000) recently reported that consumers preferred to buy well known brands as they wanted to reduce their buying uncertainty. Moreover, consumers relied heavily on other people's opinions and word of mouth during the consumption process (Tumbull, et al. 2000). However, in the case of mobile phones, one could also argue that since service providers and product manufacturers are distinctly

Determining Customer Safisfaction From Mobile Phones

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different enfifies, their respective attributes are likely to interact with one another and influence the satisfaction formation process (see for instance, Mittal and Tsiros 1999; Oliver 1993). More specifically, evaluations of attributes which are specific to service providers as well as to the product are likely to be important in forming performance expectations and overall customer satisfaction. Examples of some important attributes that could form performance expectations include particular brand perceptions, levels of service charges, levels of call charges and the price of the mobile phone. Some earlier studies have also suggested that the effect of product attributes can be moderated by individual customer differences (such as age, gender, education, occupation) and customers' expertise (Bettman and Park 1980; Oliver 1980). Previous research suggests that expert customers are likely to have a superior knowledge of existing alternatives; they are also likely to have a superior ability to encode new information and to discriminate between relevant and irrelevant informafion (Alba and Hutchinson 1987; Johnson and Russo 1984). For instance, within the mobile phone market, Turnbull, et al. (2000) reported differences in buying criteria among different gender and age groups. Males corisidered reliability and brand loyalty to be important criteria in comparison with females who considered professional image and quality as important. Younger consumers (aged 18-24), on the other hand, considered brand image, fashion and trendiness to be important buying criteria. More males (37%) could recall major service providers in comparison with only 9% of the females. Furthermore, while males purchased mobile phones mainly for business purposes, females did so for personal security. However, younger consumers (aged 18-24) bought mobile phones mainly for social use. Therefore, the current paper attempts to explore the role played by a number of factors such as age, importance of price, experience of product quality, expertise, brand perceptions, level of service charges, level of call charges and level of satisfaction with the service provider in the formation process leading to overall satisfaction from a mobile phone. The Mobile Phone Market Place The market for mobile phones has expanded at an incredible rate over the last five years with many countries displaying growth rates in excess of 25%. Furthermore the number of mobile phone subscribers in the world has already overtaken the number of fixed line subscribers in the world. It is also interesting to note that it has been estimated that the revenue from mobile services will overtake the revenue from fixed line services by 2004 (Intemational Telecommunications Union 2001). One major area where mobile phones have taken off extremely quickly is in undeveloped countries

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Mark M. H. Goode, Fiona Davies, Luiz Moutinho and Ahmad Jamal

like Ghana, Angola, The Gabon and Nigeria; these countries generally have poor fixed line systems. However, even in countries that have excellent fixed line systems, mobile phones have now reached ownership levels as high as 60% of the population. The major reasons for these high growth rates in mobile phones are:.

..., t

"

--i-\

i,

,.

-i.

highly reliable technology. .rr: '"^ u the ability to be used almost anywhere. the ease of use and the ability to handle both voice and text messages. wide networks covering the country. the ability to store phone numbers and one touch dialling. very cheap and easy to send text messages. the ability of some mobile phones to access the web using WAP (wireless application protocol).

In the UK, the market for mobile phones is dominated by three manufacturers (Nokia, Ericsson and Motorola). Together, these three companies hold over 70% of this market. Of these manufacturers Nokia is by far the most popular particularly with younger customers; and the major reasons for this are style, convenience, pop off covers, quality of the product, games, a calculator and the ability to easily change ring tones. There are now many service providers including Vodaphone, O2, Orange, Virgin and T. Mobile offering hundreds of tariff structures and payment plans. The mobile phone is now regarded as an essential product by many consumers and many value added services (e.g., call divert, mail box etc.,) are becoming standard (Turnbull, et al. 2000). In a recent study, Turnbull, et al. (2000) argued that the complexity created by the existence of different networks with different air time tariffs often create confusion and dissatisfaction for consumers as they find it hard to compare different networks and choose the best product option. Research Method The questionnaire used in this study was designed in three stages. Firstly, the consumer behaviour literature was extensively reviewed for items that would operationalise customer satisfaction, experience of product quality, the level of service and call charges, brand perceptions, importance of other people's opinions and the importance of price. Secondly, the list of questionnaire items was refined through a series of discussions with a marketing manager at a large Japanese electronics manufacturer, the owner of a local mobile phone shop and a number of senior academic researchers in the field of consumer behaviour. Thirdly, the survey questionnaire was

Determining Customer Satisfaction From Mobile Phones

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subjected to extensive pre-testing and refinement through a pilot study of 50 people, thus ensuring content validity. The sample for the study reported here focused on four of the largest UK cities, namely London, Birmingham, Leeds and Cardiff. These large metropolitan cities were chosen to minimise any bias that might be present in data drawn from a single city or region. Seventy questiormaires were collected from each city over a three day period from a busy shopping area in February 2001, leading to a total sample of 280. However a number of questionnaires were unusable, leading to a final sample size of 232. To increase the retum rate, a small prize draw of music vouchers was used. To avoid sampling bias, a quota sampling methodology was used in each city for both age and gender, as defined by the demographic make-up of the UK population. Operational Measures Satisfaction: A number of items relating to customer satisfaction were considered (Mano and Oliver 1993, Oliver 1993 and Westbrook and Oliver 1981). Based on this theoretical work and discussions with other academics involved in consumer behaviour, a nine-item scale was adopted from prior research with each item measured on a seven-point Likert-type scale. Explanatory variables: Four key explanatory variables were operationalised using multi item scales, namely importance of otlier people's opinions (Biswas and Sherrell 1993 and Murray 1991), expertise (Mishra, Umesh and Stem 1993), brand perceptions (Muncy 1996) and experience with product quality (Dodds, Monroe and Grewal 1991). These four variables were chosen as a result of earlier work, by Goode and Moutinho (1995), on customer satisfaction with consumer electronic products, which had found these variables to be important in explaining customer satisfaction. A full list of all the questions used in each multi-item scale is shown in Appendix 1. Scale validation was tested using Cronbach alpha scores, the values of which were calculated for each scale to test for intemal consistency. All but one of the constructs appeared to be robust and acceptable as they easily exceeded NunnaUy's (1967) threshold of 0.70. The exception to this was importance of other people's opinions, which had a Cronbach alpha score of 0.66. All combined scores for the multi-item scales were derived from exploratory factor analysis, thereby allowing for different weights to be applied to each variable in the scale. Details are shown in Appendix 1. As Nokia phones are so popular, respondents were also asked if they owned a Nokia phone, and the response was included as a binary variable. Age and gender were also recorded. Results Over 40% of people surveyed appeared to be very satisfied with their mobile

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Mark M. H. Goode, Fiona Davies, Luiz Moutinho and Ahmad Jamal

phones. This could be due to the low transactional costs of changing from one mobile phone to another, or even from one network/tariff to another. The customers in the lower satisfaction levels generally had a serious problem with their mobile phone or their service provider. Due to the complex nature of a mobile phone, if something goes wrong the whole machine will not work correctly, and some manufacturers have had numerous problems with very high retum rates due to poor quality. These types of problems will obviously directly affect customers' levels of satisfaction and future brand loyalty. An examination of the correlations between overall satisfaction and the explanatory variables showed six to l^e significant at the 1% level or above (see Table 1). Of particular note are the high correlations between overall satisfaction and experience of product quality, satisfaction with the service provider, and owning a Nokia phone.
Table 1. Correlation Coefficients Overall Satisfaction yi xi Overall Satisfaction with your mobile phone Gender - ..... , . , . t ' . +1.00 -0.04 ^ .' ' ,. ,

X2 Age X3 Importance of price in choosing a mobile phone X4 Importance of other people's opinions X5 .. Experience of product quality , X6 . Expertise ,, ^ , Brand perceptions . >I9I ' Level of service charges . X9 Level of call c h a r g e s xio Have you ever been overcharged? xii ' ' ' Level of safisfaction with the service provider xi2 Do you own a Nokia mobile phone? * is statistically significant at the 1% level, ** is statistically significant level, both two tailed test

+0.14* +0.07 +0.12 +0.66** +0.16* +0.10 +0.12 -0.16* +0.11 +0.42** +0.20** at the 0.1%

Initially, a linear regression was run, using all twelve independent variables, with overall satisfaction as the dependent variable. This basic model gave a reasonable R^ value of 0.41% which was generally in line with other crosssectional studies. The Neural Network Analysis ^ It was decided to attempt to improve on the predictions of the simple 2 In appendix 2 a basic introduction to NN is given along witii references to a number of classic articles on this technique and its applied use within a business environment.

Determining Customer Satisfaction From Mobile Phones

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linear regression by using neural network analysis. Neural networks have been found to offer various advantages over more traditional statistical methods such as regression, with those most relevant in this instance being: a) their capability of learning an approximation to any functional form, provided the number of hidden nodes is increased sufficiently (White 1989) - this means that underlying relationships do not have to be specified prior to analysis (Bejou, Wray and Ingram 1996) b) the value of the hidden layer nodes, which can be labelled to describe customer attitudes or behaviour indicated by the weightings of inputs to the node (Davies, Moutinho and Curry 1996) The data was therefore divided randomly into a training set of 186 observations and a test set of 46 observations with which to validate the mode]. It was input to a feedforward neural network with full connectivity (i.e. each node in an intermediate layer connected to each node in the layers above and below it), using the software Neuralworks Professional II Plus (NeuralWare, Inc. 1987 - 1994). The network used the backpropagation learning method and the sigmoid transformation function. Several neural networks were run using the full set of inputs and outputs, adjusting learning rate, momentum, and number of hidden nodes, and the final model is shown in Figure 1. Increasing the number of hidden nodes beyond two did not improve predictions in any network, nor was there any advantage in increasing the number of hidden layers. Input variables making minor contributions were removed in tum to check whether they w^ere essential in achieving the best fit. The inclusion of gender was found not to improve the model's predictions at all and so that variable was not included in the final model. Having taken all the above issues into account, the final neural network model was estimated with eleven input variables, with two hidden nodes and one output node (see Table 2). This model achieved an R^ value of 58% (training set) and 45% (test set), a substantial improvement on the linear regression model. Removing one extreme outlier boosted the R^ figure for the test set to 54%. Improvement was of course to be expected, as neural network models, which can implement a non-linear regression, will always perform better than standard linear regressions. One hidden node was found to impact positively, and the other negafively, upon the output node {overall satisfaction with your mobile phone), thus assisting interpretation of the network in terms of one set of interacting factors which tend to lead to satisfaction, and another set which tend to lead to dissatisfaction. Experience of product quality was found to make by far the highest overall contribution to the network, with substantial

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Mark M. H. Goode, Fiona Davies, Luiz Moutinho and Ahmad Jamal

contributions also made by brand perceptions, level of service charges, level of call cfiarges and satisfaction with service provider.

Table 2. Variables Used in the NN Model

INPUT VARIABLES Age of the person ^ The level of service charges Importance of the price of the mobile phone The level of call charges Whether the person had ever been overcharged Experience of product quality Satisfaction with the mobile phone service provider The level of expertise Whether the person owns a Nokia mobile phone Brand perceptions Importance of other people's opinions OUTPUT NODE Overall Satisfaction with your mobile phone
; ' . . \

Discussion of the NN Model In this particular neural network (see Figure 1), hidden node 1 (HNl) has a high positive impact (+0.94) upon overall safisfaction, while hidden node 2 (HN2) has a negative impact (-1.64) upon overall satisfaction. Thus, when considering the input factors impacting upon each hidden node, we have on the one hand a combination of factors likely to promote safisfaction, and on the other, a combination likely to lead to dissatisfaction with a mobile phone. Moreover, the input node experience of product quality has the highest contribution to each hidden node, positive to HNl and negative to HN2, thus confirming the findings of the linear regression analysis. We can therefore predict that a positive experience of product quality is the most important contributor to a feeling of satisfaction with one's mobile phone, and negafive experience of product quality is the most important contributor to dissatisfaction. Apart from brand perceptions, which make a substantial negative contribution to both hidden nodes, the other contributing variables show very different contributions to the two nodes, and thus serve to differentiate satisfied and dissatisfied customers. Looking first at HNl, the next highest contribution is a positive one from level of service charges. Thus, we can predict that mobile phone users are likely to be more satisfied with a tariff which has higher service charges combined with lower call charges, or where the service charge allows a certain amount of call time free of charge. This is not in line with many of the payment plans presently offered, which attract users initially by having no service charge but whose call charges are then high, especially if the phone is used regularly for short calls. The predictability of a tariff where the bulk of the phone's cost is covered by a fixed service charge therefore seems to be a benefit for customers.

Determining Customer Satisfaction From Mobile Phones

INPUT FACTORS

765

Importance of Other People's Opinions

Do you own a Nokia Mobile Phone?

OUTPUT FACTOR

Major Links (contribution >=|0.7|) Minor Unks (contribution >i0.3|&<|0.7|)

Figure 1. A Neural Network Model to Explain Satisfaction with Mobile Phones Smaller positive contributior\s come from expertise and level of satisfaction with service provider. Because greater expertise with a product is likely to lead to a more informed choice, and because overall performance of the phone is completely linked with performance of the network, it is unsurprising to find these variables to be important. Given the mix of variables contributing to
H N l , it has been labelled "Total product and service experience".

Tuming to HN2, after the negative contribution from experience of product quality, level of call charges makes the next highest contribution. High call charges are thus a major contributor to dissatisfaction. Mobile phone

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Mark M. H. Goode, Fiona Davies, Luiz Moutinho and Ahmad Jamal

payment plans based on call charges can be very complex and/or very restrictive (see also, Tumbull, et al. 2000). Given the complexity of the mobile phone market and the large number of payment plans, available to customers, it is very hard for customers to select the opfimum choice for their own pattern of telephone use. The choice of the best payment plan becomes a dynamic problem for users, as new tariff structures are constantly being introduced which could be cheaper or offer better service than existing ones. Often call charges vary depending on the length of time for which the phone has been used that day and the time of day. Users often find that although the lowest charges may be reasonable, the charges for using the phone during the initial period, or outside the cheap rate window, may be very much higher than they initially expected. In addition, possible difficulties in purchasing top-up cards of the denomination wanted, and the procedures that many companies have had to introduce to ensure that credit card topups are non-fraudulent, together mean that there are many more opportunities for problems than a direct debit arrangement for collecting a monthly charge. Other contributors to dissafisfaction are. Firstly, being overcharged, and, secondly, a low level of satisfaction with the service provider. Also, negafive
contributions come from age and importance of other people's opinions,

indicafing choices being made by younger, thus relatively inexperienced buyers, with little advice being taken. Nokia's reputafion is upheld by the positive contribution from Nokia ownership - non-Nokia owners are more likely to be dissatisfied. The predictors of dissatisfacfion can broadly be categorised as bad experiences and/or imsuitable choices: thus, taking into account the factors impacting upon HN2, it has been labelled "Negative
experiences and sub-optimal purclmse decisions".

The contribution of the variable brand perceptions is interesting, as it appears that both satisfied and dissatisfied customers are able to perceive major non-price differences between mobile phone brands. The dissatisfied users, however, are less able to tum such knowledge to their advantage given the younger age profile, this could be due to factors such as restricted choice due to price or ineligibility for contract-based plans, or the importance of fashion and peer group acceptability in choosing a phone. It could also be illuminating to examine the nature of the differences perceived by different groups. ' ..Predicting Accuracy of the NN model In order to test whether multiple regression or the NN model had statistically stronger predictive power, we utilised the cross sectional predictive accuracy test suggested by Diebold and Mariano, (1995). The findings revealed that the NN model's predictive results were statistically

Determining Customer Satisfaction From Mobile Phones

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better than those of the regression model (p<0.001). Therefore, it was concluded that the NN model had a higher predictive power than the regression model. This was probably due to the less restrictive assumptions of NN models, i.e., the allowance of non-linearities. Furthermore, Theil's U statistics revealed that the regression model had a U value of 0.346, which is above the maximum recommended by Theil (1961), and therefore the regression model should not be used as a predictive model. On the other hand, the Theil's U statistics for the NN model gave a U value of 0.251 for the training set and 0.282 for the 'hold-out' sample. We can therefore conclude that the NN model appeared to be both robust and reliable. To further assess the predictive power of our NN model, the factorised data on overall satisfaction was recoded into five distinct categories. These five categories represented very dissatisfied (1) to very satisfied customers (5). The predicted data set from the model was also re-categorised in this way and a simple cross tabulation of actual versus predicted was run. For a perfect model, actual category would equal predicted category and all elements would lie on the leading diagonal of the matrix. Serious errors could be considered to be more than one category away fi-om their actual values (e.g., actually 1 but predicted 3). The analysis was undertaken for both the training set [n=174, 75% of the sample] and for the hold-out sample [n=58, 25% of the sample]. The results are presented in Table 3 and Table 4, and in the case of the training set, 66.7% are predicted exactly right. It is interesting to note that there are only 5 serious errors (2.9% of the sample). In this regard, we can conclude that the model appears to be fairly robust and predicts customer satisfaction in an acceptable manner. However, the acid test of any empirical model is its ability to predict the data which has not been used to generate the model. The hold-out sample was correctly predicted in 57% of the cases, with only 2 serious errors (3.4% of the sample). We can therefore conclude that this model appears to be both a useful and robust model in predicting customer satisfaction with mobile phones. In addition, given the above findings, it may be argued that this framework is likely to be able to predict customer satisfaction with other consumer durable products as well. Furthermore the framework presented here could provide some very useful avenues for future research. Managerial Implications And Limitations Our findings indicate that that the overall customer levels of satisfaction for mobile phones appear to be determined primarily by four important factors:
experience with a mobile phone's product quality, the level of call charges, the level of service charges and satisfaction with the service provider. Furthermore this

model has shown that positive experience of product quality is the most

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Mark M. H. Goode, Fiona Davies, Luiz Moutinho and Ahmad Jamal

Table 3. Predicted Satisfaction - Results For The Training Set (n=174) Prediction 1 5 1 1 2
18 63 11

Actual

11 40

b .

9 2

2 5

The sum of the elements on the leading diagonal is 3 + 5 + 40 + 63 + 5 = 116/174 = 66.7%

Table 4. Predicted Satisfaction - Results For The Hold Out Sample (N=58) Prediction
1 2 3 4 5 1 1
. .

Actual

2 2 6 1

3 4 19

4 2

1
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10'

4 7.
2

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The sum of the elements on the leading diagonal is 1 + 6 +19+ 7 = 33/58 = 56.9% important contributor to the feelings of satisfaction with one's mobile phone, and negative experience of product quality is the most important contributor to dissatisfaction. Our findings thus confirm the significance of experience based norms in determining overall safisfacfion levels (Cadotte et al. 1987; Rust and Oliver 1994; Woodruff et al. 1983). In other words, in the case of mobile phones, consumers' satisfaction and dissafisfacfion judgements do appear to require experience with the product. Therefore, brand managers need to focus on customers' experiences and develop advertising and promotional messages that could encourage customers to think about their experiences with the actual product. Similarly, our findings in relafion to the level of call charges, the level of service charges and satisfaction with the service providers cor\firm the cross over effects from the evaluation of attributes related to service providers on customer safisfacfion. In other words, satisfaction with mobile phones is related to attribute importance judgements on the services offered by various service providers (Mittal and Tsiros 1999; Oliver 1993). Similar findings were reported by Tumbull et al. (2000) - that mobile phone users in the UK felt dissafisfied with the billing systems provided by the service providers. The implicafions of our findings are that existing manufacturers must strive to improve features and build quality so that they can improve customers' experiences with mobile phones

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and in particular improve overall reliability, if they want to increase market share. This needs to be achieved at the same time as reducing costs, if they wish to maximise customer satisfaction and gain high market penetration through brand loyalty. The model estimated here can be viewed as providing a benchmark for future research. Our findings also indicate that there appear to be no gender differences in either the level of the independent variables or the overall satisfacfion index (as tested by both student t and Mann-Whitney tests at p<0.05). Increased age, however, appeared to contribute to greater satisfaction with a mobile phone - this is unsurprising, given that older people would generally be expected to have more experience of selecting products to meet their needs, to have a higher income (at least if in employment), and to be more likely to have the facilities to set up direct debits or to make credit card payments, thus giving them more choice of payment methods. At present mobile phone marketers appear to segment the market by age, with much promofion concentrated on penetrating younger and younger markets by differentiafing through games available, choice of ring tones or the ability to customise the phone with pop off covers. In order to engender longer term brand loyalty in these younger customers, the mobile phone product and quality of service provision must also be of a satisfactory standard. The future development of mobile phones looks as if it will integrate the functions of personal digital assistants (PDA computers) with mobile phones and the new technology of Blue Tooth (Motorola 2001) which will open up numerous possibilities. Whether the majority of customers will even want or need this new type of technology very much remains to be seen. Most research on consumer behaviour issues has a number of limitations and this study is no exception. First, the hypothesised model contains a limited number of explanatory variables. Second, although the final sample of 232 respondents is adequate to test the hypothesised model presented in this paper, a larger sample might have provided more robust estimates. Finally, it would be interesting to collect a new data set and test the predictive accuracy of the estimated model using a 'jack-knife' test. Consequenfiy, there are three priorities for future research on this subject. Firstly, it would be useful to replicate this study, using a much larger sample of respondents drawn from different countries. Secondly, more antecedent variables could be tested within this modelling framework in an attempt to improve the predictive accuracy of the model. Thirdly this model could be expanded upon using a structural equation modelling system, such as LISREL, to look at the inter-relationships between the input factors. Acknowledgement We would like to thank the referees and editor of this joumal who gave

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excellent constructive advice on an earlier draft of this paper, which greatly improved it. An electroruc copy of the questionnaire used in this study is available on request from the authors. j, JReferences Alba, J.W. and Hutchinson, J.W. (1987), "Dimensions of Consumer Expertise", Joumal of Consumer Research, Vol. 13, (March), pp.411-435 Anderson, E.A. and Sullivan, M.W. (1993), "The Antecedents and Consequences of Customer Safisfacfion for Firms", Marketing Science, Vol. 12, (Spring), pp.125-143 Anderson, E.W., Fornell, C. and Lehmann, D.R. (1994), "Customer Satisfaction, Market Share, and Profitability: Findings From Sweden", Joumal of Marketing, Vol. 58, (July), pp.53-66 Bearden, W.O. and Teel, J.E. (1983), "Selected Determinants of Consumer Satisfaction and Complaint Reports", Joumal of Marketing Research, Vol. 20, No. 1, (February), pp.21-28 Bejou, D., Wray, B. and Ingram, T.N. (1996), "Determinants of Relationship Quality: A Neural Network Analysis", Journal of Business Research, Vol. 36, pp.137-143 Bettman, J.R. and Park, C.W. (1980), "Effects of Prior Knowledge and Experience and Phase of the Choice Process on Consumer Decision Processes: a Protocol Analysis", Joumal of Consumer Research, Vol. 7, (December), pp.234-248 Bettman, J.R. (1970), " Informafion Processing Models of Consumer Behavior", Joumal of Marketing Research, Vol. 7, pp.370-376 Biswas, A. and Sherrell, D.L. (1993), "The Infiuence of Product Knowledge and Brand Name on Internal Price Standards and Confidence", Psychology and Marketing, Vol. 10, No. 1, (January/February), pp.31-46 Bitiier, M.J. and Hubbert, A.R. (1994), "Encounter Satisfaction versus Overall Satisfaction versus Quality", In: Rust, R.T. and Oliver, R.L. (Eds.), Service
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Determining Customer Satisfaction From Mobile Phones Appendix 1. Operational Measures for Each Multi Item Construct Explanatory Variables

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Experience with Product Quality Cronbach Alpha = 0.91 Eigenvalue = 4.225 My experience with the brand name of my mobile phone is... My experience with the reliability of my mobile phone is... My experience with the workmanship of my mobile phone is... My experience with the durability of my mobile phone is... My experience with the dependability of my mobile phone is... My experience with the overall quality of my mobile phone is... All six questions on experience with product quality were measured from very low (1) to very high (7). Factor analysis produced one single factor that explained 70% of

variance.
Product Expertise I know very little about... I am inexperienced in ... I am an uninformed purchaser. I am a novice buyer. Cronbach A Ipha = 0.87 Eigenvalue = 2.885 To I know a lot about... To I am experienced in ... To I am a well informed purchaser. To I am an expert buyer. All four questions on product expertise were measured on a scale from left (1) to right (7). Factor analysis produced one single factor that explained 72% of variance. Brand Perceptions Cronbach Alpha ~ 0.80 Eigenvalue = 2.497 I can't think of any differences between the major brands of mobile phone. (R) To me, there are big differences between the various brands of mobile phone. The only difference between major brands of mobile phones is price. (R) All major brands of mobile phones are the same. (R) All four questions on brand perceptions were measured on a scale from left (1) to right (7). Factor analysis produced one single factor that explained 62% of variance. Importance of Other People's Opinions Cronbach Alpha = 0.66 Eigenvalue = 1.992 I was confident in the opinions of the sales person that I purchased the mobile phone from. I was confident in the opinions of family members and relations in the purchase of my mobile phone. I was confident in the opinions of specialised magazines in the purchase of my mobile phone. I was confident in the opinions of friends/acquaintances in the purchase of my mobile phone. All four questions on importance in other people's opinions were measured from strongly disagree (1) to strongly agree (7). Factor analysis produced one single factor that explained 49% of variance.

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Dependent Variable - . i Satisfaction with your Mobile Phone Cronbach Alpha = 0.77 Eigenvalue = 4.722 This is the best mobile phone I could have bought. This mobile phone is exactly what I need. This mobile phone has not worked out as well as I thought it would. (R) I am satisfied with my decision to buy this mobile phone. Sometimes I have mixed feelings about the mobile phone I purchased. (R) My choice to buy this mobile phone w^as a wise one. I have truly enjoyed the mobile phone 1 purchased. " I am not happy that I bought this mobile phone. (R) I am sure this mobile phone was the right thing to buy. All nine questions on satisfaction were measured on a scale from strongly disagree (1) to strongly agree (7). Factor analysis produced one single factor that explained 62% of variance. Key (R) These questions are reverse coded. ' '

Appendix 2. An Introduction to the Neural Network Approach

The neural network (NN) approach has its roots in physiology and psychology (see Rosenblatt 1958; Minsky and Papert 1969). The network software (in this instance "Neuralworks" from NeuralWare, Inc.) is composed of interconnected processing nodes operating in parallel, thus replicating the network of neurons, which carry out lower level, non-cognitive actions in the human brain. The network is "trained" through the presentation of examples, which may consist of both inputs and outputs ("supervised leaming", corresponding to statistical estimation of outputs) or just inputs ("unsupervised learning", corresponding to statistical classification). The basic neural network for supervised learning consists of a layer of input nodes, which correspond to the input variables, and a layer of output nodes, which correspond to the output or predicted values, separated by one or more layers of hidden nodes. The hidden nodes can be labelled or described through considering their links with inputs and outputs, and this may throw light on factors underlying the output predictions (see e.g. Mitchell et al. 1999). The most frequently used leaming process, and the one used in this research, is the "Backpropagation Algorithm". Weights for each node are adjusted in proportion to the difference between predicted and actual output values, and an element of non-linearity is brought in by using a "squashing function" (e.g. the sigmoid hmction) to transform weights for each hidden node. The network is run iteratively with each recalculated set of weights until no further improvement can be found in fit between actual and predicted outputs. In order to ensure that the network has not settled at a "local" rather than "global" point of minimum error, NN software has a facility to "jog" weights, moving them substantially from the optimum values found, to check that after further leaming they resettle at this point. Readers wishing a more detailed discussion of the workings of the backpropagation algorithm are referred to Moutinho et al. (1996). Neural networks have been used for many years in other disciplines, but their use

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in the business field is relatively recent, dating from the early 1990s. Phillips et al. (2001, p.167) contains a summary of the most notable applications in business and marketing.

About the Authors Mark Goode is a lecturer in Marketing at Cardiff Business School, in Cardiff University, teaching Marketing, Operations Management and e-commerce. His main research interests lie in the areas of consumer behaviour, particularly toward modelling satisfaction and loyalty. He has published numerous papers in the Joumal of Retailing, Joumal of Services Marketing, Vie Joumal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Journal of Management Marketing and The European Joumal of Marketing among others. He has also acted as a consultant to numerous local firms and published a book entitled Quantitative Methods in Marketing Management (John Wiley, 1998). Fiona Davies is a lecturer in Marketing at Cardiff Business School, in Cardiff University, teaching Marketing and Marketing Research. Her main research interests lie in the areas of modelling consumer behaviour and sponsorship in marketing. She has published numerous papers in the Joumal of Business Research, Vie Joumal of Retailing and Consumer Services and Joumal of Consumer Behaviour among others. She has also acted as a consultant to numerous local firms and published a book entitled Quantitative Methods in Marketing Management (John Wiley, 1998). Luiz Moutinho is a Professor of Marketing, University of Glasgow. He completed his PhD at the University of Sheffield in 1982 and held posts at Cardiff Business School, University of Wales College of Cardiff, Cleveland State University, Ohio, USA, Northern Arizona University, USA and California State University, USA, as well as visiting Professorship positions in Taiwan, Lithuania, Slovenia, Portugal, New Zealand and Brazil. He has published nineteen books and has published extensively in academic journals both in the UK and the USA, e.g. Journal of Business Research, European Joumal of Marketing, etc. Current research interests include mathematical and computer modelling in marketing, consumer behaviour, and marketing of services. He is the Editor of the Advances in Doctoral Research in Management (ADRM) and the Joumal of Modelling in Marketing and Management. Ahmad Jamal received his PhD in marketing in 1997 from the Management Centre, University of Bradford and is a lecturer in Marketing at the Cardiff Business School, Cardiff, UK. His research interests include culture.

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consumption and consumer behaviour, customer satisfacfion, and the use of the intemet by consumers. He has published in Advances in Consumer
Research, Vie Intemational Joumal of Bank Marketing The Joumal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Joumal of Consumer Beliaviour and the British Food Joumal.

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