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Issue 83

Copyright 2011-2012 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.

CONTENTS
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5 Bestselling New Property Launches of November Where Will the Property Market Go in 2013? Singapore Property News This Week Resale Property Transactions (December 5 December 11)

FROM THE

EDITOR

Welcome to the 83th edition of the Singapore Property Weekly. Hope you like it! Mr. Propwise

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83

5 Bestselling New Property Launches of November


What are the top selling projects by developers this month? In this article, based on analysis done at PropertyMarketInsights.com, we will share with you the five bestselling non-landed projects launched by developers in November 2012 ranked by the number of units sold, based on URA data. This list is a quick way for you to identify new projects that are selling well. Looking at the location, number of units sold and prices, you can get a sense of where the hot areas and projects are, and potentially spot interesting opportunities in projects that are nearby that could be selling at a significant discount.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83 5. Bartley Residences, 43 units sold

With 43 units sold in November, Bartley Residences ranks fifth. It sold at a median price of $1,230 PSF, with the lowest price at $1,042 PSF and the highest at $1,340 PSF. With 702 units, the 99 year leasehold Bartley Residences is expected to be completed by 2015. Bartley Residencess attraction is its convenient location, located at Lorong How Sun, walking distance from Bartley MRT. Also in the district are schools like Maris Stella High School and Bartley Secondary School, and this project has easy access to an array of amenities such as public transport, eateries and supermarkets nearby. (All map screenshots OneMap.sg)
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are

taken

from

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83 4. Riversails, 81 Units Sold With 81 units sold in November, Riversails is in fourth place. It sold at a median price of $858 PSF, with the lowest price at $721 PSF and the highest at $1,078 PSF. The 99 year leasehold condominium is expected to be completed by 2017 with 928 units. Riversails offers an interesting array of facilities like a jungle gym, mini theatre, stage of tales, island swirl spa, green trellis, camping lawn, paddle boats and yoga pool. Riversails is located at 20, Upper Serangoon Crescent, near Hougang MRT and Buangkok MRT. Nearby schools include Pei Hwa Secondary School and Fernvale Primary School. Residents can go to Compass Point and Rivervale Plaza for daily amenities.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83 3. Waterbay, 84 Units Sold With slightly more units sold in November, Waterbay is in third place with 84 units sold. It sold at a median price of $743 PSF, with the lowest price at $572 PSF and the highest at $797 PSF. The 99 year leasehold condominium is expected to be completed by 2016 with 383 units. Waterbay offers an interesting array of facilities like gym, cascading waterfall, reading pavilion, children's lounge, tea pavilion, sun lounge and the rain shower. Waterbay is located at 45, Edgefield plains, near Cove LRT and Punggol MRT. Nearby schools include Punggol Secondary School and Edgefield Primary School. Residents can go to Compass Point for daily amenities.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83 2. D'Leedon, 133 Units Sold A step up from the previous entry, D'Leedon takes second place with 133 units sold in November. It sold at a median price of $1,431 PSF, with the lowest price at $1,325 PSF and the highest at $1,937 PSF. The 99 year leasehold condominium is expected to be completed by 2014 with 1715 units. D'Leedon

offers facilities such as swimming pool and


clubhouse. D'Leedon is located at 151 King's Road, near Farrer Road MRT. There are many top tier schools in the vicinity like St Magaret's Secondary School and Nanyang

Primary

School.

Residents

can

go

to

Empress Road Market and Food Centre or Holland Village down the road for daily amenities.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83 1. Eco Sanctuary, 140 Units Sold Taking first place is Eco Sanctuary with 140 units sold in November. It sold at a median price of $1,050 PSF, with the lowest price at $740 PSF and the highest at $1,290 PSF. The 99 year leasehold condominium is expected to be completed by 2016 with 483 units. Eco Sanctuary offers a unique array of facilities appealing towards nature lovers such as a picnic lawn, island club, planter wall, dragonfly path, gym, lotus pavilion and bio pond. Eco Sanctuary is located at Chestnut Avenue, near Pending LRT. Schools in the vicinity include Chestnut Drive Secondary School and Bukit Panjang Primary School. Residents can go to Bukit Panjang Plaza for daily amenities.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83 Now that you know what new properties are selling well, use this knowledge to your advantage. Identify market trends and choose the right time to make your move. Till next month! Want a longer list of the bestselling new sale projects? Or a list of the cheapest ones? You can get this and much more at PropertyMarketInsights.com, a site that helps investors spot opportunities and time their Singapore property purchases. Click here to get your FREE report on Understanding the Property Market Cycle to invest profitably now.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83

Where Will the Property Market Go in 2013?


By Mr. Propwise Its that time of the year where we sum up what happened in 2012 and peer into 2013 to divine where the market may go. While Im not a fan of forecasting (the type that says the market will fall by 5% in the second quarter) because I believe that the future is not knowable with any certainty, I do think its important for investors (and really anyone looking to buy a sell a property) to take stock of where we are in the market cycle and analyze the factors that affect the supply and demand of property to make a good decision.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83 A quick summary of 2012 We had two additional rounds of property control measures by the Government in September and October 2012, aiming to cap the proliferation of shoebox units and tighten mortgage financing respectively, bringing the total measures to six since the first round in September 2009. Have the measures worked? Well to some extent, yes. The URA Property Price Index (PPI) has risen by a muted 1.0% in the first three quarters of 2012 versus 5.6% over the same period in 2011, so the upward acceleration in prices has been halted. But prices are at a level that many feel are too expensive and unaffordable, thus breeding some discontent.

The other standout trend in 2012 was the spiraling out of control of industrial property prices. In 3Q2012 the Industrial Property Price Index registered a stunning 8.8% quarter-on-quarter growth to hit 183.3, an alltime high, the twelfth quarter of growth. The Industrial Property Price Index has already risen by 26.7% in the first three quarters of 2012, and an astonishing 102.8% since 3Q2009, versus just 34.9% for the residential PPI over the same period.
Figure 1 URA PPI since 2000
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83 Industrialists with thin margins are going to have a tougher time funding their real estate needs. Plentiful supply in 2013 and beyond The URA has collated that a total of 93,800 private housing units (including about 9,800 EC units) that will be constructed over the next few years, with about 43% or 40,000 of those (including 3,400 EC units) still yet to be sold. Based on the URA data collated by PropertyMarketInsights.com, residential completions will peak in 2015 at 23,667 units based on the private residential supply pipeline, or a 47% increase over the completion expected in 2013. Despite this, the government has kept the land supply relatively constant (at least so far based on the 1H13 Government Land Sales Programme), perhaps in an effort to prevent the perception of a squeeze in the supply of land that could lead to higher prices. has been matched by a strong demand for property

While the large increase in supply sounds scary, it is worth pointing out that demand has been very strong for the past few years, and has continued to be strong so far this year as well.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83 Low interest rates could continue to prop the market up The standard argument I hear about why property prices will continue to stay high is due to the abundant amount of liquidity and current low interest rate environment, thanks to a trigger happy Fed whose new mission is to protect high prices by flooding the market with dollars via Quantitative Easing every time there is any sign of weakness.

Year-to-date till November 2012 there has been an estimated total transaction volume of 37,597 units, comprising 24,970 developer and 12,627 secondary sales (Figure 1.1.5b). This is 118% of the annual average of 31,826 units. If demand going forward continues to be as strong as it has in the past couple of years then the upcoming supply could well be absorbed without any weakness in the market.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83 I completely agree that a low interest rate environment is supportive of property prices, and with interest rates close to zero, borrowing money to reach for yield sounds like a rational idea. The problem is that given weve had interest rates hovering close to zero for several years now since the Global Financial Crisis, many people are starting to believe that interest rates will be low forever. What could possibly happen to reverse the low interest rate environment? One possibility is a recovery of US growth. Another is a spike in inflation. In the 1970s the US was plagued by a combination of spiraling inflation and weak economic growth, otherwise known as stagflation. It took a strong Fed chairman by the name of Paul Volcker to beat the inflation monster, but at the cost of a recession, and he did it by hiking the federal funds rate rates to a peak of 20% (!) in June 1981. If that happens again, it will certainly be a disaster for property. But beware of the Black Swans A reader recently wrote to me to sum up his view of where the market would go in 2013: Property prices are unlikely to correct at all in 2013 given the liquidity and low interest rates.
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Well, my friends, forever is a very long time, and if theres one thing Im certain about, it is that interest rates will not stay low forever. Do remember that the current low interest rate environment is an abnormal situation, one put in place to support a weak growth environment in the Developed World. Behaviorally, we human beings tend to extrapolate the current situation into the future, but markets dont work like that.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83 And heres my response to him: One of the favourite Latin phrases that economists like to use is ceteris paribus, i.e. all else being equal, to assume away any other inconvenient or unknown variables. So ceteris paribus, yes seems like prices are unlikely to correct. But markets have a funny way of throwing a curveball when you least expect it things like a recession (GDP growth is already slowing) and unemployment, an inflation shock, or a new crisis (whether financial or otherwise, e.g. epidemics). And given where we are in the cycle, I think the market is vulnerable as lots of buyers have already committed. As members of PropertyMarketInsights.com know, we are currently in the Late Bull stage of the Property Market Cycle Model, when property price increases start to slow down after a steep run up during the Early Bull
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Market Phase, and is an indicator that we are nearing the peak of the cycle. In other words, the downside risk is greater than the upside, and anyone thinking of buying a property now should be very cautious when doing so. Mr. Propwise is the author of Timing the Property Market.

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83

Singapore Property This Week


Residential
Private home November sales fell by 44% in of the private homes sold excluding ECs were from the OCR. 20,879 private homes (excluding ECs) were sold by November 2012, and the year is expected to end with 21,000-24,000 homes sold. 3,672 EC units were sold in the same period, and the figure may exceed 4,000 by year end with 1,0001,300 units sold in December. While prices are likely to continue their upward trend as a result of inflated land prices, sales volume is expected to fall to 16,000-18,000 units or even 10,000-12,000 units in 2013 if land sales stabilise. (Source: Business Times)

1,087 private homes excluding ECs were sold in November, a 44.2% fall from 1,948 in October, and a 36.1% from the same period in 2011. This is attributed to the lack of major launches (773 units, a 53% fall from Octobers 1,633 units) and possibly the latest cooling measures. While there were no ECs launched in November, 179 ECs from earlier launches were sold. Including ECs, 1,266 homes were sold, compared to 2,624 in October, though demand remained high. 65%

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83 Caution market abounds in collective sales (Source: Business Times) Last two 99-year H2 GLS residential sites released The first is a 1.2-hectare confirmed-list site located along Commonwealth Avenue, next to Queenstown MRT Station with a 4.9 GPR allowing it to potentially yield 700 units in a condominium over 40 storeys. The expected top bid for the site ranges from $700 psf ppr to $1,100 psf ppr from five to 10 bidders. It is expected to be highly popular since it is located in a mature estate. The tender will close on Feb 5 2013. The second is a 2.6-ha reserve-list site in New Upper Changi Road, next to Tanah Merah MRT Station. It can potentially yield 600 units. It is expected to attract 10 bidders with a top bid of $780-$830 psf ppr if launched now. (Source: Business Times)

With the introduction of ABSD in December 2011, developers have increasingly turned towards smaller sites in 2012, and this is likely to continue in 2013. In particular, smallto mid-size land parcels of below $200 million are expected to be the most popular. While there were record deals such as the sale of Thomson View condominium at $712 psf ppr or $590 million, such cases are rare and attributed to its proximity to the newly announced Upper Thomson MRT station , or the need of some developers to replenish their land banks. 24 sites were transacted year-to-date at a total value of around $2 billion, compared to the 51 sites transacted at $3.2 billion last year. Only three out of the 24 sites sold were in the prime districts; this due to the smaller demand for homes in such districts as a result of the cooling measures.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83 Commercial MTI to release 22 industrial sites in H1 2013 The 22 sites (13 confirmed-list sites and nine reserve-list sites) have a total site area of 24.84 hectares. To ensure that genuine industrial end-users get factory space that meets their needs, certain sites a subject to a minimum number of large factory units. All 13 confirmed-list sites are zoned B2, possibly due to the already ample supply of B1 industrial sites. Of these sites, eight are under 1.0 ha; six of which are 22-year leasehold 0.5ha sites with a 1.0 plot ratio located in Tuas South. Such small sites can draw five19 bids with top bids of $30-78 psf ppr, under $10 million. The nine sites on the reserve list include five small sites on Tuas South Street 6 and Street 8) have debut on the reserve list and four larger 30-year leasehold sites.
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(Source: Business Times) URA releases last 2 commercial sites under GLS The first is a confirmed-list 1.1-ha site on Venture Avenue near Jurong East MRT Station. It can yield a 25-storey development with a maximum GFA of 694,939 sq ft, of which 90% must be set aside of offices that can be strata sub-divided. It is expected to attract five to eight bids with a top bid of $700-800 psf ppr. The second is a reserve-list 0.8-ha site located at Cecil Street/Telok Ayer Street near Tanjong Pagar MRT Station which can support a 50-storey development with a maximum GFA of 830,510 sq ft. The site zoned for commercial and open space use may attract three to six bids with a top bid of $800-1,000 psf ppr, if triggered for sale.

(Source: Business Times)


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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83

Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Dec 5 Dec 11
Postal District 1 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Project Name THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY RIVER PLACE MARINA COLLECTION REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY THE PEAK CARABELLE BLUE HORIZON PARC IMPERIAL DOVER PARKVIEW DOVER PARKVIEW BURLINGTON SQUARE URBAN LOFTS RANGOON VIEW KENTISH COURT THE SUITES AT CENTRAL PATERSON RESIDENCE THE COSMOPOLITAN SCOTTS HIGHPARK THE PATERSON MIRAGE TOWER ROBERTSON 100 MIRAGE TOWER Area (sqft) 1,184 743 1,873 1,076 840 1,227 5,500 947 936 1,464 1,249 1,324 667 753 1,335 1,066 1,012 1,313 1,141 4,209 1,206 570 872 958 Transacted Price ($) 2,700,000 985,000 5,525,350 1,833,000 1,428,000 1,928,000 7,700,000 1,195,000 1,050,000 1,620,000 1,360,000 982,000 935,000 950,000 1,600,000 1,180,000 2,500,000 3,103,000 2,480,000 8,900,000 2,500,000 1,168,000 1,570,000 1,680,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 2,280 99 1,326 99 2,950 99 1,703 99 1,701 99 1,571 99 1,400 FH 1,262 956 1,121 99 1,107 FH 1,089 99 742 99 1,401 99 1,261 FH 1,199 FH 1,107 99 2,471 FH 2,363 FH 2,174 FH 2,115 FH 2,074 FH 2,047 FH 1,801 FH 1,754 FH Postal District 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 14 Project Name ROBERTSON 100 ROBERTSON 100 ASPEN HEIGHTS ASPEN HEIGHTS HORIZON TOWER THE ORANGE GROVE THE SOLITAIRE GLENTREES CHARLESTON JERVOIS REGENCY PARK INFINIA AT WEE NAM SOLEIL @ SINARAN D' IXORAS NEWTON EURO-ASIA SHELFORD REGENCY M21 CHANCERY PARK THE ARCADIA TREVISTA TREVISTA TRELLIS TOWERS EURO-ASIA PARK CASSIA VIEW STARVILLE Area (sqft) 1,001 678 883 1,324 2,422 2,691 1,625 1,442 1,206 1,905 850 1,722 840 1,539 1,098 1,345 1,679 3,821 861 861 1,647 1,528 2,314 1,216 Transacted Price ($) 1,728,888 1,170,000 1,500,000 2,138,000 3,000,000 6,076,278 3,000,000 2,230,000 1,830,000 1,875,000 1,800,000 3,444,000 1,290,000 2,308,500 1,618,000 1,920,000 2,350,000 4,400,000 1,300,000 1,288,888 1,850,000 1,671,500 2,400,000 1,200,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 1,727 FH 1,725 FH 1,699 999 1,615 999 1,239 99 2,258 FH 1,846 FH 1,546 999 1,518 FH 984 FH 2,117 FH 2,000 99 1,536 FH 1,500 FH 1,474 FH 1,427 FH 1,399 FH 1,151 99 1,510 99 1,497 99 1,123 FH 1,094 FH 1,037 FH 987 FH

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 83


Postal District 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 Area (sqft) 1,249 1,959 1,636 1,701 1,615 678 1,453 893 2,508 1,141 1,475 1,163 1,324 1,206 1,206 1,572 1,615 1,636 1,227 1,916 2,368 936 980 958 1,604 3,509 1,023 Transacted Price ($) 1,200,000 3,150,000 2,428,000 2,510,000 2,300,000 950,000 1,970,000 1,130,000 3,110,000 1,400,000 1,768,800 1,280,000 1,450,000 1,230,000 1,190,000 1,500,000 1,380,000 1,350,000 1,728,800 2,242,000 2,625,000 1,030,000 1,028,800 950,000 1,280,000 2,400,000 980,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 961 99 1,608 FH 1,484 FH 1,476 FH 1,425 FH 1,401 FH 1,356 FH 1,265 FH 1,240 FH 1,227 99 1,199 FH 1,101 FH 1,095 FH 1,020 FH 987 FH 954 99 855 99 825 99 1,409 99 1,170 99 1,108 FH 1,100 99 1,050 99 992 99 798 99 684 99 958 FH
Postal District 17 17 17 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 23 23 Area (sqft) 1,335 1,012 1,755 1,302 1,044 1,249 1,496 1,195 1,604 1,582 581 1,184 1,163 1,227 926 1,356 1,507 1,345 1,238 Transacted Price ($) 1,210,000 888,000 1,460,000 920,000 1,070,000 1,090,000 1,270,000 948,888 1,605,000 1,360,000 1,100,000 1,921,000 1,765,000 1,399,999 1,035,500 1,288,000 1,390,000 1,375,000 978,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 907 FH 878 FH 832 FH 706 99 1,025 99 873 99 849 99 794 99 1,001 99 860 99 1,892 FH 1,622 FH 1,518 FH 1,141 99 1,119 999 950 FH 922 99 1,022 999 790 99

Project Name SIMSVILLE AALTO THE MAKENA ONE AMBER THE MAKENA ESPIRA SUITES THE MEYER PLACE EASTERN LAGOON GRAND DUCHESS AT ST PATRICK'S SANCTUARY GREEN HAIG COURT HERITAGE RESIDENCES ST PATRICK'S COURT CEYLON CREST CRESCENDO BUILDING MANDARIN GARDEN CONDOMINIUM LAGUNA PARK NEPTUNE COURT COSTA DEL SOL COSTA DEL SOL BREEZE BY THE EAST BAYSHORE PARK THE BAYSHORE THE BAYSHORE TANAMERA CREST KEW GREEN FERRARIA PARK CONDOMINIUM

Project Name EDELWEISS PARK CONDOMINIUM BALLOTA PARK CONDOMINIUM AVILA GARDENS MELVILLE PARK THE QUARTZ RIO VISTA CHUAN PARK RIVERVALE CREST CLOVER BY THE PARK BRADDELL VIEW THE CASCADIA THE CASCADIA THE CASCADIA CAVENDISH PARK SPRINGDALE CONDOMINIUM HUME PARK I PARC OASIS MERAWOODS HILLTOP GROVE

NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

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