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UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Objectives?
to identify the key trends in tourism supply and demand worldwide and by region; and their impact on the various sectors of the tourism trades; together with implications for policy making and relevant strategies.
Tourism Prospects
Short-term forecast
Focus on current situation and cyclical trends political and economic climate (coyuntura) Use: operational / tactical, i.e.: marketing and promotion activities capacity management, pricing, etc. Focus on structural, underlying trends demographic, social, political, economic and technological developments Use: strategic, i.e.: planning of infrastructure, product development, legislation, competitive framework master plans, strategic marketing planning, HR
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Long-term forecast
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
15
10
0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
71%
43%
39%
33%
6 7 8 9 10
14%
11 12 13 14 15
9%
9%
Others Total
3% 25 million
Others
Others
Others
World
Middle East
East Asia/Pacific
South Asia
Africa
Americas
Europe
International Tourist Arrivals, 19502020 Current situation and forecasts UNWTO Tourism 2020 Vision
Actual 1,600 1,400 1 bn 1,200 million 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2007 2010 2020
Forecasts 1.6 b
903 mn
2% 4% 15% 20%
4% 27% 18% 5%
(Million) World Africa Americas East Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East South Asia 565 20 110 81 1006 47 190 195 1561 77 282 397
336 14 4
527 36 11
717 69 19
1995
82% 18%
2020
76% 24%
Intraregional Interregional
Third Holiday
Second Holiday
Main Holiday
1990
2000
2020
Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 China France United States Spain Hong Kong (China) United Kingdom Italy Mexico Russian Fed. Czech Rep.
Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Germany Japan United States China United Kingdom France Netherlands Italy Canada Russian Fed.
Market share (%) 9.8 9.1 7.9 6.4 6.1 3.5 2.9 2.3 2.0 2.0
Established markets
Still far from saturated, however growth potential is comparatively moderate Growth both from:
increase of participation, but tourism is already available for broad part of society Increased frequency: more frequent but shorter stays
Emerging markets
still huge potential for growth to exploit
from current travellers but above all from new emerging middle classes sizable populations currently still only take part in international tourism very limitedly
many emerging economies show rapid economic growth resulting in increasing disposable incomes
a relative big share of this increase will be spent on tourism (domestic as well as international)
shift from traditional source markets (Western Europe, USA, Canada, Japan,) to alternative ones (Central and Eastern Europe, China, India, Rep. of Korea, Singapore, Middle East, Mexico, etc.)
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
10
million
300 250 200
318
Asia and the Pacific Europe Americas Africa & Middle East
153
150 100
122 63
58 11 6 1 19 31 11 2 14 23 2
2020**
50 0 1995
2005
2010**
Growth in VFR Increase in independent travel and Do it yourself New opportunities offered by
Low cost carriers: broadening of market Internet: facilitating flexibility and transparency
11
12
537 mn
13
10.9
6.5
6.8
7.1
4.1 4.4
3.0
3.8
World
Europe
Africa
Middle East
440 484 44
175 184 9
38 44 6
31 48 17
311 mn
14
4.2
3.9 2.8
4.6
Europe
Northern
Western
56 58 2
140 155 15
100 96 -4
144 176 32
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Asia and the Pacific
450 400 350 300 250 million 200 150 100 50 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
206 mn 167mn
82 mn
15
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Asia and the Pacific
Average 12 annual 10 growth rate (%)
8 6 4 2 0
2.4
South Asia
78 94 16
49 54 5
15 11 -4
8 9 1
16
9.3
3.9 2.0
3.5 1.1
Americas
115 91 -24
22 19 -3
4 7 3
22 19 -3
20 mn
17
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast The Middle East
80 70 60 50 million 40 30 20 10 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
41 mn 36 mn
14 mn
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Africa and the Middle East
12 Average annual 10 growth rate (%) 8 6 4 2 0
Africa
North Africa
Subsaharan Africa
Middle East
11 15 4
27 26 -1
29 41 12
18
3% 4% 15% 20%
5% 5% 20% 16%
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Worlds Top destinations 2020
International Tourist Arrivals
12
Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-2006 7.3 6.8 7.1 7.2
4.8 2.3 2.5 3.5 2.6 1.5 2.6 2.1 0.5 0.7 3.4 3.2 3.6 3.6
Ch ina
an Fr ce
s tat dS e ite Un
ain Sp
ly Ita
m do ing dK ite Un
da na Ca
19
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Rising stars (destinations > 5 mn)
International Tourist Arrivals
20 18
17.4
8.4
9.3 5.5
10.5 8.1 5.0 8.8 6.9 5.9 8.0 5.9 4.3 3.1 7.4
11.2
11.3
6.6
6.9
4.3 1.2
4.9
y ma Ger n
a ati Cr o
ys y rke Ma ia Tu la
ia Ind
tes ain mi hr Ba bE ra ra .A Un UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section co oc Mor ia ric nis Af a Tu ut h So
t yp Eg
4.1 4.2
4 2 0
3.4
5.8
World
Europe
Africa
Middle East
451 474 23
172 167 -6
25 24 0
18 25 7
20
5.4 4.8
0%
3.8
4.1
97 mn
163 mn
share (%)
50% 431 mn
40%
Actual 1995-2006
21
explosion of low cost airlines in Europe, Asia and the Middle East unexpected events not catered for border facilitation (+/-) socio-environmental awareness (+/-)
often but shorter stays from current travellers but above all from new emerging middle classes sizable populations in developing countries currently still only take part in international tourism very limitedly many emerging economies show rapid economic growth resulting in increasing disposable incomes, a relative big share of this increase will UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section be spent on tourism (domestic as well as international)
22
in 1950 less than one international trip per 100 population, versus 11.5 in 2000 tourism participation expected still almost to have doubled in 2020
20
15 15 11.5 10 6.4 4.5 5 1.0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2.3 8.7
81
Real values 1980-2000, Forecast 2020 There is a considerable variation between regions: Europe has currently 46 trips per 100 population and South Asia only one The fastest growth will be recorded in EAP (in 2020 will have reached a level comparable with Europe in 1980s) and in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia (from a lower base)
46
1716 13
Africa
South Asia
23
Long-term trends and forecasts UNWTO Tourism 2030: a road map for
an updated long-term forecast
Quantitative forecast for the world and by (sub)region Qualitative assessment for the world, by region and country Sectors, products and market segments Themes Principles: Extend scope:
explore relationship tourism development and economic growth analyse trend by means of transport analyse trend by purpose of visit (leisure, business, VFR, etc.) analyse trend in the use of accommodation international vs. domestic tourism
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
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How
25
Themes: Authoritative contributions on various subjects relevant for future development, such as: sustainability
Climate change Congestion management
new technologies changing demographics (aging, family composition, immigration) developing countries and poverty alleviation human resources - decent work safety, security and emergency response competitiveness legal framework and facilitation marketing and promotion UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services
Section
26
Conclusion
27
Handbook on methodology
28