IAC-08-A4.2.

PLANNING FOR CONTACT:

FANTASY DOCUMENTS OR GUIDELINES FOR ACTION?

Albert A. Harrison
University of California Davis, USA
aaharrison@ucdavis.edu

ABSTRACT

This paper begins with a review of three potentially useful strategies for anticipating
human reaction to the discovery of extraterrestrial life. Since the 1960s, researchers have
looked to historical precedents or analogues (such as Europeans arriving in the Americas)
for guidance. Do these past events offer useful prototypes or give rise to ―fantasy
documents‖ that have only an illusion of relevance? The choice of analogues, explicit
recognition of differences between analogues and future events, and the careful
qualification of findings increase the usefulness of this method. Survey research is a
potentially powerful tool, but many of the most publicized surveys that touch upon life in
the universe are of marginal relevance because they were designed to promote sensational
television programs. Still, past surveys can be mined for useful data and funding for
surveys dedicated to astrobiology and SETI would be very useful. Scenarios are carefully
constructed narratives about possible futures. Whereas no scenario will capture the actual
future, thinking through the issues may reduce the ―surprise‖ factor and facilitate
appropriate action as the actual future unfolds. We identify four scenarios relevant to
SETI and propose a wiki as a platform for scenario development.

Interest in the human response to
extraterrestrial life has waxed and waned
over the centuries, but gained new
significance after scientists established the
feasibility of interstellar communication. 1, 2
Project Ozma, the first radiotelescope
search, influenced the 1961 Brookings
Report on the peaceful uses of outer space.3
Commissioned by NASA, led by
psychologist Donald Michael, and prepared
by a large team of experts and consultants,
most of the report focused on topics such as
communications satellites that were
__________________________
© Copyright 2008 by the International
Astronautical Federation. All rights
reserved.
futuristic at the time but are commonplace
today. Dismayed by a long history of
misunderstandings and conflicts when
radically different terrestrial cultures
encountered each other, the report urged
ongoing studies to prepare humanity for
the discovery of extraterrestrial life. The
recommendation was taken to heart, and
over the years many workshops, papers
and books have grappled with the
psychological, societal, and cultural
implications of the search for
extraterrestrial life.1,2,4-9

1
This paper briefly discusses three research
methods for informing such discussions:
historical precedents or analogues, survey
research, and scenario planning. It then
proposes a Web-based wiki as a useful
planning device.
LESSONS FROM HISTORY
Politicians, military leaders, corporate
executives and other leaders look to the
past for solutions to today’s problems.
Crucial decisions involving war and
peace, the fate of massive welfare
programs and efforts to contain pandemics
have all rested in part on perceptions of
past situations, choices, and outcomes.
Analogies or ―analogues,‖ which involve
close parallels or similarities between
earlier and contemporary or anticipated
(target) events have been of particular use.
For example, the results of ―appeasement‖
prior to World War II toughened the
stance of postwar negotiators, and strong
parallels between the Spanish Influenza of
1919 and the later Swine Flu led U.S.
President Ford to order a crash inoculation
program in 1976.10
Historical analogues play a prominent role
in discussions of anticipated space age
events. Studies conducted in ―spaceflight
analogous‖ settings such as polar outposts,
underwater research vessels and remote
industrial and military sites offer insights
for supporting astronauts and cosmonauts
on extended duration flights.11,12 Past
experience with hurricanes, earthquakes,
tsunamis, and other disasters gives us a
starting point, at least, for addressing
behavioral and policy aspects of
protecting Earth from the threat of asteroid
and comet impacts. And, to gain insights
on the psychological, societal and cultural
effects of the discovery of extraterrestrial
life, researchers sought historical
analogues for inspiration.1-5
Certainly one of the most obvious
analogues is the arrival of the English,
Spaniards and other Europeans in Africa
and the Americas during the Age of
Exploration. Here, the technologically
advanced Europeans are the precursors of
the extraterrestrials, while humans are cast
as the technologically disadvantaged and
perhaps overawed natives. As Steven Dick
points out, the transmission of ideas from
culture to culture is a more useful
analogue given that under the standard
SETI detection scenario we expect
communication without physical contact.1
A good prototype here is the transmission
of the beginnings of modern mathematics
from India through the mid-East to
Europe. Among other things, by giving us
a quantitative basis for estimating odds,
this new knowledge stimulated a whole
new way for thinking about the future.13
We should adopt a broad view of history,
including not only inscribed tablets and
yellowing documents, but also
contemporary archives, such as today’s
newspaper and recent posting to the World
Wide Web.
Also interesting are episodes where
significant numbers of people believed
that humans had found extraterrestrial
life.5 These include a period in the 1840s
when readers of a widely circulated New
York newspaper reported that an
astronomer had discovered ―bat men‖ on
the Moon, and, a few decades later,
widespread acceptance of the idea that
astronomers had found evidence of a
dying civilization on Mars. Orson Welles’
1938 War of the Worlds broadcast led
some radio listeners to believe that an
alien invasion had begun. This is
memorable because of widespread and
overstated media accounts of panic.5 Then,
in 1947 a newspaper announced that the
United States Air Force had retrieved a
flying saucer in New Mexico. This
produced no discernible immediate
reaction (perhaps because the
announcement was immediately retracted)
but years later gave rise to the persistent
and resilient Roswell myth.14 In the 1960s,
scientists thought briefly that quasars and
pulsars might be intelligently controlled
interstellar beacons. More recently, there
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was an erroneous news report that radio
astronomers detected an extraterrestrial
signal.
Richard Neustadt and Ernest R. May point
out that analogues differ in terms of the
allure that they have for their beholder.10
The most powerful analogues, those that
seem immediately obvious to everyone,
are classified as ―irresistible.‖ Because of
the congruence between the claim that
radioastronomers had a confirmed
detection and the way an actual SETI
detection was likely to occur, this
analogue seems irresistible and it is
tempting to take the muted (if even
perceptible) public response to the
erroneous news report as a good
approximation of responses to a real SETI
detection. Somewhat less compelling but
still easy to grasp are ―captivating‖
analogues. Perhaps many people would
see the War of the Worlds broadcast as
captivating. After all, here was a situation
where many people thought that the
Martians had landed and the (inaccurate)
news reports fit in with popular notions of
panic. Finally, there are merely
―seductive‖ analogues: like the ―boy or
girl next door‖ they do not necessarily
leap to mind but, over time, become more
interesting. The transmission of ideas from
culture to culture may fall into this
category.
The most alluring analogues, note
Neustadt and May, are not necessarily the
best analogues.10 We should continually
ask ourselves why particular analogues are
attractive. Analogues that seem
compelling at first may later fall apart. For
example, despite the initially powerful
resemblance between the Spanish and
Swine flu epidemics the latter was
nowhere near as lethal; the crash
inoculation program in 1976 was not only
unnecessary but had many unfortunate
economic, political, and legal
consequences. Government authorities
then lacked sufficient time to develop a
firm knowledge base and carefully review
their options.
In some areas historical precedents seem
useless; despite powerful motivation and
at least two hundred years of carefully
recorded data we are still reduced to
guessing when it comes to forecasting the
value of common stocks. Successful fund
managers are those who have had a good
run of luck, and for everyone who has
achieved great wealth there are many who
remain in modest circumstances or who
are financially ruined.13 As for SETI
analogues we have relatively few data
points, mostly from earlier times involving
cultures that differ significantly from their
modern counterparts. Given that analysts
equipped with powerful computers and
millions of data points cannot predict the
value of a given investment, can we hope
to do better on the basis of a small handful
of cases?
In his discussion of ―fantasy documents,‖
sociologist Lee Clarke’s warns that
analogues may have only a superficial,
even deceptive relationship to a target
event and prove useless for any practical
purpose.15 He illustrates this by noting
that, over the years, U. S. civil defense
planners proposed building shelters that
would protect people from atomic blast
and fallout but had to abandon this
strategy when more potent H-bombs came
on line, boosting the costs of shelters to
unacceptable levels. Later, authorities
decided that evacuation would keep
people alive. Just as they could evacuate
beach communities on the shores of Long
Island, New York in the face of an
impending hurricane, they could move
people from Manhattan to Albany just
before the bombs fell. Protecting people
from nuclear conflagration, officials
would have us believe, is not that different
from protecting them from natural
disasters.
Using a hurricane as a prototype for a
nuclear attack creates an ―affinity‖
between the two events. Implicitly, we
assume that our experience with
hurricanes, which is considerable, offers
protection from modern thermonuclear
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war, a type of catastrophe that we have yet
to experience. The superficial similarities
between the two events—hurricanes and
nuclear attacks—at once creates the
illusion that the plan is based on
experience and diverts attention from the
tremendous differences between them.
Hurricanes cannot strike within thirty
minutes of their detection, cannot be
retargeted to annihilate populations that
have moved elsewhere, and do not lead to
nuclear winters.
Thus, fantasy documents are plans
developed without a firm knowledge base.
Certainly, preparing to encounter creatures
whose psychology and culture are not
known to us is another area where
planning must proceed under conditions of
high uncertainty. Are the historical cases
that we choose useful analogues or
misleading affinities?
Certain safeguards should minimize the
role of fantasy in planning documents.
When turning to history for advice we
should have clearly formulated questions
and get the facts straight. For example, are
widespread images of panic and social
chaos following natural or technological
disasters factual or based on media-fed
stereotypes? Sociological research
suggests the second alternative is more
likely.16
Neustadt and May recommend separating
assumptions, facts, and uncertainties.10
They suggest classifying elements of the
historical episode and the target event into
one of three categories: ―known,‖
―presumed‖ and ―unclear.‖ This separates
guesswork from knowledge and
recognizes ambiguities and information
gaps. Also, they encourage developing
lists of ―likenesses‖ and ―differences‖ for
analogues and targets. For example, we
have to keep in mind that today’s world of
high technology, instant communication,
and democracies, contemporary culture
not only differs tremendously from the
times that Europeans arrived in the
Americas or Percival Lowell concluded
that he had seen signs of intelligent life on
Mars. Separating fact from presumption,
acknowledging uncertainties, and
recognizing both likenesses and
differences should improve the usefulness
of historical analogues or at least reduce
the shock value if history fails to repeat
itself.
We can further distance ourselves from
fantasy documents if we understand
Clarke’s views on why these exist.15
Fantasy documents are largely symbolic
communications intended to serve
political and organizational purposes.
Their whole goal is to reassure audiences
that the planners are aware of the situation
and the implicit message is ―trust us – we
know what we are doing,‖ but such trust
would be misplaced. Fantasy documents
shield elites and organizations from
blame, by showing that a problem has
been considered and ―appropriate‖
measures taken.
Fantasy documents evolve when political
agendas, and authorities, experts and
consultants work together to make an
intractable problem seem solvable or to
define the problem away. Oftentimes these
experts are working far from their areas of
expertise. Dissenters are silenced (for
example by casting people who agree with
the document as experts and those who
dispute the document as inexpert) and
people who hold opposing positions are
made to seem irrational. The document is
approved on ideological bases rather than
stringent peer review. Reality checks
come too late.
SURVEY RESEARCH
Survey research involves oral interviews
or written questionnaires to tap people’s
opinions and attitudes. The keys to
success are framing the questions, drawing
the samples, administering the
questionnaires, and analyzing the results.
To the extent that the questions are framed
properly and the sample drawn is
representative of the population of
interest, researchers can get quantitative
4
estimates of the prevalence and strength of
people’s views. Common pitfalls include
failing to ask the right questions or doing
so in a misleading or confusing manner;
non-representative samples that are based
on convenience or self selection; and low
response rates that lead to misleading
findings.
Survey research is put to good use in
political opinion polls and marketing
research. However, drawing a
representative sample is technically
challenging and costly, as is sending
researchers into the field to track down
and interview unenthusiastic participants
whose exclusion would bias the results.
International polls, which would be useful
for present purposes, are even more
difficult since they pose more complex
sampling issues and require questions that
retain their meaning in different
languages.
Surveys of college students, newspaper
subscribers, astronomers, pastors, and
UFO enthusiasts are fine for some
purposes, as long as we never lose sight of
the limited nature of the samples. Today,
many organizations sponsor Internet
surveys and some of these get substantial
numbers of responses. The problem is that
respondents are self-selected and therefore
non-representative. For example, identical
web based questionnaires on evolution
and intelligent design posted by scientific
and religious organizations are likely to
point to different conclusions because the
two Websites draw people who have
different beliefs.
As John Billingham pointed out, survey
research could be a potent tool for
exploring people’s views of
extraterrestrial life.17 Numerous surveys
over the years have touched on beliefs
about our place in the universe and related
issues. Oftentimes these are geared
towards UFOs, but some surveys contain
information directly relevant to
astrobiology and SETI. For example, a
1999 Gallup Poll showed that 35 percent
of the American respondents believed that
life existed on Mars, 61 percent thought
that other forms of life existed elsewhere
in the universe, and 41 percent thought
that there could be ―people somewhat like
ourselves‖ living out there.18 A few other
surveys contain findings of general
interest despite reference to UFOs. An
example is Victoria Alexander’s ―UFO
Survey‖ of ministers, priests and rabbis.19
Caution is required because of her low
response rate, but her findings of positive
and relaxed attitudes towards the idea of a
populated universe and the possibility of
contact are interesting.
Still, many polls fail to separate scientific
and paranormal themes. Those of us who
are specifically interested in attitudes
towards astrobiology and SETI do not
have the financial means of television
producers who seek sensational opinions
about the reality of flying saucers, alien
abductions, and government cover-up in
order to generate public interest in their
television programs. A dozen or so
carefully developed questions asked by
trained professionals of well chosen
respondents could go a long way towards
elucidating national and world attitudes
towards astrobiology, SETI, our place in
the universe, and anticipated human
reactions to extraterrestrial life.
SCENARIO PLANNING
Based on the technical term for a play or a
movie, a scenario is a narrative or story
about how the future might evolve.20-22
Plots are carefully constructed to
underscore key elements. Different stories
of what might happen under different
scenarios draw attention to multiple
possibilities. First used by the military,
scenario planning spread to government
and industry. Military planners develop
scenarios where current allies join enemy
camps, and energy companies develop
scenarios where the emergence of new
technologies reduces demands for their
products. Scenario planning is useful for
decisions, for example, preparing for new
5
kinds of warfare or buying rights to a
competing product before it becomes a
threat in the marketplace.
Scenario planning is a group activity,
involving perhaps 20 people. The group as
a whole sets goals, begins to rough out the
scenarios, and generates ideas. The group
is composed in such a way as to bring
different viewpoints, ideas, and talents to
the table, and it helps to include decision-
makers who are likely to use the results.
An ―open mind‖ is important, but so also
is not getting drowned in falsehood and
trivia. Participants are encouraged to
think creatively, identify and challenge
their own assumptions and prejudices, and
become attuned to multiple points of view.
Up to a point, unconventional thinkers are
considered an asset. Schwartz writes ―At
the social and intellectual fringes, thinkers
are freer to let their imaginations roam,
but they are still constrained by a sense of
current reality… [but]… it is hard to
predict which fringe elements will remain
in obscurity and which will change the
world.‖ 20, p. 69
Scenarios are developed in depth and trace
as many ramifications as possible.
Generally, groups construct between two
and (at the outside) five scenarios; beyond
this, scenarios tend to become confused
with one another. Scenarios include
predetermined elements (what we already
know), constraints, and critical
uncertainties. For example, within the
SETI framework, we would already know
that ―they‖ will have achieved or
surpassed our level of technology, and
interstellar distances will constrain
communication.
After the initial meetings a group of core
participants do further background
research, organize the ideas, and write the
scenarios. ―Partially filtered‖ information
is desirable; that is, researchers try to
avoid complete jumbles of ideas and
oversold conclusions. One of the functions
of the exercise is to challenge
preconceptions, so both disconfirming and
confirming evidence is welcome. Later,
scenarios can be re-evaluated by the team,
and the process reiterated as necessary. In
effect, much speculation about the
philosophical and practical implications of
extraterrestrial life is based on
rudimentary scenarios based in people’s
heads but most speculations are piecemeal
and poorly integrated.
Recently, Michael Michaud has identified
problems that hinder discussions of SETI
and its consequences.2 Among other
things, these include optimistic and
pessimistic biases, and tendencies to
anthropomorphize or impute human
characteristics to extraterrestrials. They
also include assumptions that astronomers
will make the discovery, that
extraterrestrial societies will have either
no impact or an extreme impact on our
own societies, that they will speak the
language of science, and that they will be
prepared for us even if we aren’t prepared
for them. Michaud also notes certain blind
spots. One of his examples is overlooking
the possibility of direct forms of contact,
such as finding an extraterrestrial artifact
within our solar system. The scenario
planning process is geared to ferret out
hidden assumptions, illuminate blind
spots, and challenge forgone conclusions.
Thus the technique should help planners
overcome many of the concerns raised by
Michaud.
Scenarios do not predict the future but
they do allow us to rehearse the future.
We do not know what will actually
happen but we can prepare ourselves by
thinking through a range of possibilities.
Rehearsal reduces the likelihood or
magnitude of unpleasant surprises, gives
us at least rough guidelines for action, and
could help us get up to speed when the
action starts. Rehearsal sensitizes us to
cues associated with the different
scenarios so noticing such a cue gives us a
hint as to what should happen next.
However, it’s worth keeping in mind that
preliminary cues can be misleading, as
when initially strong parallels between the
Spanish and Swine flu epidemics broke
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down and they followed very different
trajectories.
Scenarios can help protect us from ―wild
cards‖ that could invalidate our current
expectations. Nicholas Taleb argues that
many of the powerful forces that shape
society are ―outliers‖ or qualify as ―black
swans‖ in the sense that they were
inconceivable before they were
discovered, just as black swans were
inconceivable to Englishman before they
discovered these swans in Australia.23
Black swans - which include home
computers, the Internet, and Google - are
―outliers‖ in the sense that nothing in the
past could point convincingly to their
existence. Because of black swans change
proceeds by fits, starts, and jumps, rather
than orderly trends. Taleb writes that since
we seek order and coherence in the
universe, we develop after the fact
explanations that make black swans seem
logical and predictable, perhaps forgetting
that we are viewing events through the
rearview mirror rather than the windshield
of the car.
What scenarios might be useful for SETI
planning? This, of course, should be a
group decision, but about ten years ago, at
a workshop on the Societal Implications of
Astrobiology at NASA-Ames Research
Center, I presented four scenarios
arranged along two dimensions. 24 One
dimension or axis expressed the level of
complexity of life form encountered, and
the second axis expressed its proximity to
Earth. Consistent with living systems
theory and prevailing thoughts about
cosmic evolution, I defined complexity in
terms of consciousness, culture, and
society.25,26 Under this paradigm grasses
and plants, single-celled creatures, insects,
worms, and small animals qualify as
simple. Life forms that are capable of
elaborate thought, are self-aware, gather
together into large and intricate societies
and rely heavily on symbols and
technology are defined as complex.
(Societies based on artificial intelligence
fall into this category.) They are capable
of advanced technology and can indicate
their presence over vast interstellar
distances. The second dimension,
proximity to Earth is much easier to
describe: distal locations are external to
our solar system while proximal locations
are within.
When we cross the two levels of
complexity with two levels of proximity
we have four scenarios titled Distant Dust,
Microbes on Mars, ET Calling, and Space
Visitors. The first two are associated with
astrobiology, and the third, ET Calling,
with SETI. The fourth scenario, Space
Visitors, involves unequivocal evidence of
extraterrestrial intelligence within our
solar system. Examples include finding
artifacts left on the Moon or a solar planet,
sighting or intercepting transmissions
from extraterrestrial probes within our
solar system, discovering ET on the
Internet, encounters with aliens, and so
forth. Unlike the preceding scenarios,
which are relatively constrained, this one
involves almost endless possibilities and is
the most open to imagination and fantasy.
The confusion and emotionality associated
with variants of this scenario helps
account for its lack of prominence in
scientific circles. Note that over time we
may be confronted by more than one of
these scenarios.
Distal Proximal
Complex ET Calling Space Visitors
standard SETI artifacts and
scenario encounters
Simple Distant Dust Microbes on Mars
Conditions for fossils, single cell
life, precur- organisms, plants
sors of life, grasses on Mars,
biosignatures
Table 1: Detection Scenarios Based on
Living System Complexity and Proximity
The unfolding of any of these detection
scenarios would represent a great
7
scientific discovery and could have
profound effects upon us. Nonetheless, it
should prove more challenging easing
humanity through some of these scenarios
(Space Visitors and ET Calling) than
others (Microbes on Mars and Distant
Dust). Each scenario has different
implications for psychology, society, and
culture. Given our current knowledge not
all of these scenarios are equally probable
and perhaps some are impossible, but
thinking these through could help us
become familiar with uncertainties and
possibilities and reduce the risk of scary
surprises.
Scenario planning requires meetings,
research teams, and other costly activities.
Military planning groups do not have to
worry about financial support for their
efforts and corporate sponsors are happy
to hire consultants that could help them
face competition or annoying legislation.
At present, SETI social science is not
awash in money. Could serious and
sustained scenario planning proceed
nevertheless?
Today, the Internet and its
accompaniments make it possible to
assemble ―virtual‖ teams in cyberspace.
Whereas some of the enthusiasm and give
and take of face-to-face meetings may be
lost, virtual meetings make it possible to
work around busy schedules and
continuously update written records. Here
a wiki - a multi-authored document that
evolves on a Web site – may be of help.
Participants write text, assess and edit
each others contributions, raise questions
and post comments. A successful wiki
would most likely require a small cadre of
dedicated enthusiasts to oversee and flesh
out the scenarios, as well as a larger group
of participants that brings multiple
perspectives to bear, generates ideas, and
evaluates progress. After sufficient
development, the site could be opened to
the public, who might not be able to alter
the wiki but could send comments and
suggestions to the editors.
A wiki is ―living‖ in the sense that it is
continually evolving and updated. Unlike
conferences, which typically involve a
brief period of frenzied activity followed
by a great silence, wikis permit sustained
planning. They can be set aside for
extended periods of time, and then work
can resume. Unlike a single authored
book, they encourage buy-in from many
different participants. In comparison to
both single authored books and conference
proceedings they do not become dated as
soon as they are released, and, once they
are opened to the public, they are
accessible and without cost. Wikis are not
without problems, for example, initial
enthusiasm for participation is not always
matched by long, hard hours at the
computer and not all participants agree
that each contribution is for the better.
Still, strategies are available for working
around these problems, and for cash-
strapped scholars, wikis provide an
opportunity for low cost sustained
collaborative efforts.
CONCLUSIONS
As we contemplate the philosophical,
psychological, societal and cultural
implications of SETI we should try to
maintain an open mind, achieve a balance
between imagination and reality, and
remain aware that detection could occur at
any time. We need to recognize when we
are making assumptions, when we are
dealing with facts, and when we are
confronted by uncertainties. As much as
possible, we should keep our biases under
control. We should avoid denying
possibilities on emotional rather than
rational bases, over-relying on simplifying
assumptions, and seeking confirmation of
our hypothesis while ignoring
inconvenient evidence. Also, as I pointed
out at an earlier Congress, planning is a
group rather than solo activity and we
need to be aware that it will be shaped by
group and organizational dynamics as well
as psychological factors.27 Any agency -
8
academic, governmental, or commercial,
or not-for-profit – that is involved in the
planning process will have to contend with
both internal and external politics and
culture.
We have to remember that reactions to
extraterrestrial life will vary depending on
individual psychological, societal, and
cultural variables. Reactions will depend,
also, on the nature of ―the other‖ and the
way that the scenario unfolds – for
example, rapidly or slowly. And, because
the target event could occur at any
moment in history, scenarios will have to
be updated now and then.
Planning should not be the sole province
of academics, no matter how varied and
interdisciplinary the group. It is important
to involve leaders who may have to make
key decisions, and, if that is impossible,
then their close advisors. At least,
influential people should be aware that
possibilities are being explored. That we
may have reduced uncertainty for fellow
academics will be of minor solace if
presidents, generals, governors,
spymasters, bishops, chief executive
officers and other powerful people are
caught by surprise. And, if governmental
or military commissions or agencies are
developing their own scenarios behind
closed doors, ours that are developed in
the open marketplace of ideas could offer
useful counterpoints.
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Seventh Congress, First Session, 24
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