04 January 2013

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

04 January 2013

Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
Timing .......................................................................................................................... 3
Value ........................................................................................................................... 4
Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 4
How to use the report ....................................................................................................... 5
Over Valued ............................................................... 6
Aerospace & Defence
Automobiles & Parts
Banks
Beverages
Chemicals

Over Valued ................................................................. 6

Over Valued ................................................................................ 6
Under Valued .......................................................................... 6
Under Valued .......................................................................... 6

Construction & Building Materials

Electronics & Electrical Equipment

Over Valued ................................................ 7

Over Valued ............................................... 7

Under Valued .......................................................... 7

Over Valued ................................................................. 8

Engineering & Machinery

Food & Drug Stores

Under Valued ..................................................... 8

Food Producers & Processors
Under Valued ....................................................................... 8
General Retail
Over Valued ................................................................................. 8
Health
Over Valued ...................................................... 9

Household Goods & Textiles

Over Valued ........................................... 9

Information Technology & Hardware
Under Valued .............................................................................. 9
Insurance
Over Valued ................................................................. 9
Leisure & Hotels
Life Assurance

Over Valued ..................................................................... 10

Over Valued ........................................................... 10

Media & Entertainment

Under Valued ................................................................................ 10
Mining
Under Valued ............................................................................ 10
Oil & Gas
Personal Care & Household Products

Over Valued ......................................... 11

Over Valued .............................................. 11

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Under Valued ........................................................................ 11
Real Estate
Under Valued ................................................. 11
Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance

Over Valued ....................................................... 12

Over Valued ............................................................... 12

Support Services
Ov e r Va lue d .................................................... 13
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ............................................................................ 13
Transport
Under Valued ............................................................................... 13
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ................................................................................................................... 14
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ............................................................................. 15

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 2 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

04 January 2013

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will
identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and
information noisy trading environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically,
before the official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the
two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that
influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been
established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well
as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find
stories for their investment meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading
indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as
well as some 74% accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks
analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 3 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

04 January 2013

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a
daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the
Consolidated Income Statement but also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and
then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment
research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend
themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as
realistically valid as possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of
market levels but a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating
operating environment set against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a
modest range of some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the
intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies
as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme.
However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to
challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors
from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems
active position monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and
not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment
options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is
provided solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact
your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you
may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign
currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and
the income from them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 4 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

04 January 2013

How to use the report

This daily report is typically available for download as a PDF from 7am - well in advance of the markets
open - and is based upon previous days closing prices.
We have kept the report deliberately simple for quick reading and identification of the shares most likely to
be active as can be seen from the following:

Longer term action based

upon implied target price
Todays action
Sector

Implied target price

based upon 49
valuation metrics

Closing price

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT

Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00

12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00

12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

21.16
6.36

9.36
2.20

21.69
6.55

Neutral
Neutral

FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12

23.50
324.70
0.40

19.50
189.00
0.24

82.00
342.30
17.00

Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

JD SPORTS FASHION

731.00

570.00

863.00

Neutral

57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25

38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50

110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75

Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL

DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Company

Latest 12 month
Hi/Lo for the
share price

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Strong
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
30
298
739
268

Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97

38
4

1.56
0.94

112
415
-62

1.05
0.67
0.88

1341

0.47

321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29

1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31

eta measures a
shares
volatility/risk
relative to market

(see below)

Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta of
1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from the
market. This can be summarised as:

eta <1.0

Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)

eta =1.0

Share should move in line with the market

eta >1.0

Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 5 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Aerospace & Defence

Stock
BAE SYSTEMS
C HEMRING GROUP
C OBHAM
MEGGITT
ROLLS-ROYC E HOLDINGS
SMITHS GROUP
ULTRA ELEC TRONIC S HDG.

Price 12M Lo
352.30 270.90
253.60 217.00
222.60 179.70
403.00 356.50
912.00 717.08
1215.00 935.50
1681.00 1424.00

12M Hi
363.60
460.00
239.50
414.90
913.50
1221.00
1780.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
236.40 173.60
444.00 292.60
75.00
49.50
18.25
7.32

12M Hi
237.20
446.40
79.00
18.50

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
276.00 150.55
662.50 491.40
49.71
25.29
332.40 196.60
1618.50 1228.50

12M Hi
276.00
665.70
49.71
334.20
1662.50

Target
223
425
88
27

Beta
1.95
1.43
1.28
1.09

Target
185
1047
60
-123
1342

Beta
1.89
1.16
1.85
1.36
1.70

Under Valued
Price 12M Lo
494.90 348.00
1818.00 1381.00
2892.00 2293.00

12M Hi
500.00
1886.50
2892.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy

Target
532
1580
3412

Beta
0.49
0.54
1.00

Under Valued

Chemicals
Stock
C RODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
VIC TREX
SYNTHOMER
ZOTEFOAMS

LT Rec
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Buy

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Beverages
Stock
BARR (AG)
DIAGEO
SABMILLER

Beta
0.67
0.55
0.87
1.32
1.09
0.69
0.58

Over Valued

Banks
Stock
BARC LAYS
HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
ROYAL BANK OF SC TL.GP.
STANDARD C HARTERED

Target
536
541
256
341
611
938
1413

Over Valued

Automobiles & Parts

Stock
GKN
INC HC APE
LOOKERS
PENDRAGON

04 January 2013

Price
2357.00
231.50
2363.00
1646.00
195.00
201.50

12M Lo
1818.00
135.10
1889.34
1110.00
127.40
109.00

12M Hi
2501.00
240.30
2573.00
1649.00
251.00
225.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Target
3907
309
6242
1735
324
190

Page 6 of 15

Beta
1.05
1.02
1.44
1.14
1.19
0.98

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Construction & Building Materials

Stock
BALFOUR BEATTY
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
BELLWAY
BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)
BOVIS HOMES GROUP
C ARILLION
C LARKE (T)
C OSTAIN GROUP
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
MORGAN SINDALL GROUP
PERSIMMON
REDROW
SIG
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
WOLSELEY

Price
282.10
209.30
1039.00
1777.00
582.00
320.50
55.25
252.25
754.50
704.00
1321.00
56.00
101.00
530.00
822.50
164.90
122.40
68.50
1107.00
2995.00

12M Lo
237.90
89.95
660.00
1177.00
399.30
235.50
36.50
188.00
463.50
265.00
1095.00
40.00
76.00
508.00
472.20
107.30
82.30
36.93
794.00
2081.30

12M Hi
320.80
210.70
1044.00
1779.00
583.50
344.00
55.38
254.00
754.50
704.00
1489.00
66.50
103.62
725.00
822.50
166.00
123.50
68.50
1149.00
3008.00

Price 12M Lo
1050.00 685.00
609.00 509.00
121.50 103.75
334.00 181.60
214.60 148.10
1502.00 905.50
2031.00 1019.00
2093.00 1302.00
0.08
0.08
148.00 114.00
279.00 185.00

12M Hi
1244.00
670.00
149.50
335.70
243.90
1502.00
2081.00
2093.00
0.22
203.50
292.00

Target
-43
35
573
3023
68
-225
20
478
12
288
885
78
39
89
221
27
142
-8
450
1383

Beta
0.83
1.48
1.08
0.65
1.13
1.11
0.78
0.61
1.01
1.24
0.95
1.07
1.30
0.83
1.14
1.03
1.65
1.56
1.93
1.44

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Target
688
838
219
305
73
1053
2178
1957
0
349
204

Beta
0.76
1.14
1.33
1.36
2.12
0.98
1.25
1.44
0.82
1.58
1.12

Under Valued

Engineering & Machinery

Stock
AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP
BODYC OTE
C ASTINGS
VESUVIUS
FENNER
HALMA
HILL & SMITH
IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN C RUC IBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARC O
VITEC GROUP
WEIR GROUP

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Over Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment

Stock
DIALIGHT
DOMINO PRINTING SC IENC ES
E2V TEC HNOLOGIES
INVENSYS
LAIRD
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
RENISHAW
SPEC TRIS
BIOME TEC HNOLOGIES
TT ELEC TRONIC S
XAAR

04 January 2013

Price
72.75
481.90
342.50
367.10
435.20
457.00
403.00
1131.00
4.50
273.30
2616.00
208.20
98.00
2343.00
630.00
1973.00

12M Lo
54.25
271.40
253.00
263.19
329.30
336.30
252.75
776.00
3.88
220.30
1854.00
176.00
81.50
1858.00
547.00
1397.00

12M Hi
92.00
481.90
358.50
370.85
483.70
459.50
410.75
1132.00
9.00
360.00
2616.00
213.00
219.50
2343.00
740.00
2236.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Target
127
494
654
493
529
365
339
1246
4
504
1865
213
83
2096
602
1893

Page 7 of 15

Beta
1.23
1.56
0.98
2.21
1.43
0.76
1.34
1.37
0.79
1.77
1.00
1.68
0.96
0.81
1.44
1.37

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Food & Drug Stores

Stock
GREGGS
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
SAINSBURY (J)
TESC O
THORNTONS

Price 12M Lo
458.50 454.00
259.30 256.20
336.60 283.20
350.00 297.05
41.00
9.50

12M Hi
558.00
321.70
361.10
405.50
42.25

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1573.00 1105.00
855.00 726.50
384.00 290.40
328.00 250.30
121.00
52.50
782.00 633.50
2399.00 1994.00

12M Hi
1591.00
864.50
400.00
341.20
180.00
782.00
2429.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy

Price 12M Lo
28.75
19.38
367.60 222.40
1261.00 1000.00
683.00 493.10
28.91
9.56
9.20
2.76
30.75
19.50
336.00 189.00
670.00 592.50
62.00
38.00
286.30 246.50
388.40 306.20
60.50
33.75
340.75 152.00
3873.00 2573.00
1153.00 653.50
51.50
25.75

12M Hi
29.50
380.00
1586.00
728.50
29.80
9.25
58.75
356.80
863.00
85.70
313.80
398.80
64.25
362.00
3873.00
1160.00
51.75

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Beta
0.47
0.43
0.63
0.71
0.83

Target
1316
1290
355
301
-134
929
3162

Beta
0.59
0.58
0.91
0.31
1.39
0.65
0.59

Target
31
332
905
258
38
3
104
462
1406
87
364
478
59
435
3408
606
45

Beta
0.72
0.51
1.31
0.95
1.56
1.11
1.01
0.68
0.47
1.24
0.94
0.73
1.02
0.44
0.68
0.57
1.29

Over Valued

Health
Stock
C ONSORT MEDIC AL
C ORIN GROUP
SMITH & NEPHEW

Target
628
201
226
277
29

Under Valued

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
C ARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENC H C ONNEC TN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENC ER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERC ARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Under Valued

Food Producers & Processors

Stock
ASSOC IATED BRIT.FOODS
C RANSWIC K
DAIRY C REST
DEVRO
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

04 January 2013

Price 12M Lo
775.00 523.00
70.00
35.25
688.00 580.00

12M Hi
831.50
70.00
693.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
655
68
732

Page 8 of 15

Beta
0.46
0.67
0.36

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Household Goods & Textiles

Stock
GAMES WORKSHOP
HEADLAM GROUP
HORNBY

Price 12M Lo
660.00 450.00
328.50 255.00
72.00
55.25

12M Hi
720.50
330.00
133.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
796.00 469.00
347.90 187.80
34.00
19.50
439.70 383.50
154.30 115.00
206.50 125.25

12M Hi
796.50
365.60
47.25
717.00
174.00
230.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1200.00 825.50
390.00 312.90
181.70 131.00
510.00 387.30
453.60 369.30
774.00 659.00
127.30
97.65
409.25 324.25

12M Hi
1231.00
405.00
181.70
510.00
489.40
790.00
127.90
409.25

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Beta
0.37
0.91
0.74

Target
467
897
38
416
583
-229

Beta
0.75
1.21
0.80
1.06
0.94
0.98

LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
399
-2695
1406
686
1912
2917
1561
1776

Beta
0.56
0.47
0.56
0.29
0.48
0.29
0.42
0.46

Over Valued

Leisure & Hotels

Stock
C ARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
TUI TRAVEL
FULLER SMITH 'A'
GREENE KING
LADBROKES
IC TL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & C PTH.HTLS.
MITC HELLS & BUTLERS
BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.
PUNC H TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
WETHERSPOON (JD)
WHITBREAD
WILLIAM HILL
MARSTON'S

Target
644
281
99

Under Valued

Insurance
Stock
ADMIRAL GROUP
AMLIN
BEAZLEY
C ATLIN GROUP
HISC OX
JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON
RSA INSURANC E GROUP
NOVAE GROUP

LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware

Stock
ARM HOLDINGS
C SR
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES
SPIRENT C OMMUNIC ATIONS
WOLFSON MIC ROELEC TRONIC S

04 January 2013

Price
2404.00
104.00
289.00
778.00
632.50
200.50
1772.00
523.00
330.90
112.20
9.90
147.00
388.10
531.00
2532.00
352.90
125.30

12M Lo
1841.00
26.50
157.80
657.25
474.30
131.30
1161.35
389.60
217.40
91.90
5.61
111.00
269.20
371.30
1566.00
202.20
90.15

12M Hi
2545.00
104.00
289.00
798.00
646.00
201.40
1772.00
523.50
337.00
174.00
12.25
154.30
391.70
548.50
2546.00
357.50
127.70

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
4065
60
717
585
551
167
1504
562
264
72
38
464
292
671
1777
254
15

Page 9 of 15

Beta
0.99
1.63
1.01
0.40
0.90
0.92
1.18
1.35
1.04
1.25
1.20
0.97
0.81
0.73
0.98
0.91
1.23

Intellisys

04 January 2013

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock
AVIVA
C HESNARA
LEGAL & GENERAL
OLD MUTUAL
PRUDENTIAL
ST.JAMES'S PLAC E

Price 12M Lo
384.20 255.30
194.00 155.25
149.60 103.00
182.10 137.80
907.00 633.50
433.20 303.40

12M Hi
384.20
207.50
149.60
182.10
911.50
433.20

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Over Valued

Media & Entertainment

Stock
AEGIS GROUP
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
BRITISH SKY BC AST.GROUP
C ENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
INFORMA
ITE GROUP
ITV
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
STV GROUP
ST.IVES
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
HIBU

Price 12M Lo
235.60 140.00
118.25
92.00
780.50 635.50
47.25
28.50
565.50 363.50
888.00 637.00
464.10 340.00
237.40 180.00
108.40
69.45
12.25
4.88
1211.00 1111.00
65.50
36.25
288.50 237.62
28.95
26.66
102.63
76.25
106.50
67.50
99.25
25.50
740.00 470.00
158.75
78.50
917.00 669.00
0.34
0.26

12M Hi
237.80
146.50
780.50
51.75
565.50
892.00
464.10
246.30
108.90
15.00
1294.00
65.50
377.50
30.02
119.50
106.50
99.25
750.00
158.75
920.50
6.27

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price
2014.50
277.25
1370.00
2199.50
296.40
6230.00
3658.50
7.03

12M Lo
1664.00
221.25
991.00
1681.00
240.84
4596.00
2715.50
3.75
832.50
1131.50 785.80

12M Hi
2910.00
340.00
1399.00
2208.50
599.98
7775.00
3988.00
34.00
1502.00
1283.00

Target
-625
1528
147
3087
5449
-37
264
1207
1478
333
2337
501
-595
280
-293
2201
1145
202
823
21
61

Beta
1.29
0.38
0.55
0.99
1.06
0.96
1.56
1.42
1.54
1.27
0.65
0.79
0.19
0.52
0.76
1.43
1.57
1.33
0.87
1.31
1.10

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral

Target
3351
321
1110
4057
22
3360
3980
197
2898
1184

Beta
1.73
0.99
1.44
1.41
1.93
0.28
1.48
0.89
2.16
1.78

Under Valued

Oil & Gas

Stock
BG GROUP
BP
C AIRN ENERGY
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL B
SOC O INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell

Under Valued

Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERIC AN
ANGLO PAC IFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
LONMIN
RANDGOLD RESOURC ES
RIO TINTO
C OALFIELD RESOURC ES
VEDANTA RESOURC ES
XSTRATA

Target
1059
314
260
154
824
391

Price
1030.00
441.70
277.60
11.25
795.00
77.25
354.20
2196.50
366.30
1289.00
749.00

12M Lo
1000.50
391.95
248.20
7.86
688.00
68.00
321.30
2039.00
254.90
1150.00
647.00

12M Hi
1547.00
504.60
360.00
12.13
968.00
187.75
449.70
2489.00
373.40
1601.00
875.50

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
1208
1514
-18
14
508
293
286
10765
250
787
801

Page 10 of 15

Beta
0.79
1.06
1.35
0.88
1.28
1.45
1.39
0.90
0.53
1.10
1.35

Beta
1.28
0.67
1.69
1.63
1.71
0.83

Intellisys

04 January 2013

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products

Stock
MC BRIDE
PZ C USSONS
REC KITT BENC KISER GROUP

Price 12M Lo
134.75 102.70
387.90 285.00
3939.00 3265.00

12M Hi
140.00
393.70
3987.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Price
3.25
2980.00
349.20
608.50
1363.50
2.32
10.75
1915.00
72.25
22.88

12M Lo
2.54
2591.00
300.30
418.33
1317.50
2.05
5.88
1727.00
31.00
19.25

12M Hi
3.98
3111.50
423.00
636.00
1507.50
5.80
12.75
2300.00
101.50
27.38

ST Rec
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
362.90 255.30
573.50 455.30
29.25
22.75
770.00 560.00
2171.00 1535.00
149.75 121.75
120.00
83.10
494.50 324.50
497.10 354.50
242.00 164.00
822.00 618.00
358.30 301.10
135.00 110.25
370.00 287.00
55.00
32.50
462.00 300.80
571.00 462.50
250.50 198.20
236.00 110.50
187.75 130.00
290.10 164.00
1.00
1.00
302.00 213.25

12M Hi
362.90
573.50
34.25
775.00
2174.00
176.00
120.00
502.00
497.70
242.00
825.50
362.90
144.00
390.00
56.75
480.00
571.00
259.20
236.00
189.50
290.10
4.13
313.80

Target
40
4560
453
3105
-376
15
4
1594
309
124

Beta
1.03
0.49
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.67
0.94
0.67
0.70
0.82

Price 12M Lo
143.00
89.50
2139.00 1450.00
400.00 292.40
290.00 236.25
23.50
18.25
575.50 400.37
173.00 135.00
77.25
61.50
1507.00 1275.00
303.70 247.70

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy

Target
-625
1528
147
3087
5449
-37
264
1207
1478
333
2337
501
-595
280
-293
2201
1145
202
823
21
61
-1046
1136

Beta
1.13
1.03
0.67
0.66
1.19
0.94
1.46
1.04
1.14
0.69
1.14
1.09
0.71
0.44
1.15
0.66
1.00
1.66
1.45
1.06
1.73
1.00
0.99

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services

Stock
ANITE
AVEVA GROUP
C OMPUTAC ENTER
KOFAX
INNOVATION GROUP
MIC RO FOC US INTL.
PHOENIX IT GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Under Valued

Real Estate
Stock
BIG YELLOW GROUP
BRITISH LAND
C APITAL & REGIONAL
C LS HOLDINGS
DERWENT LONDON
DEVELOPMENT SEC S.
GRAINGER
GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES
HAMMERSON
HELIC AL BAR
LAND SEC URITIES GROUP
C APITAL SHOPC TS.GROUP
MC KAY SEC URITIES
MUC KLOW (A & J) GROUP
QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.
SAVILLS
SHAFTESBURY
SEGRO
ST MODWEN PROPS.
TOWN C ENTRE SEC URITIES
UNITE GROUP
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPAC E GROUP

Beta
0.84
0.72
0.36

Over Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Stock
ARK THERAPEUTIC S GP.
ASTRAZENEC A
BTG
DEC HRA PHARMAC EUTIC ALS
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDIC A
PHYTOPHARM
SHIRE
SKYEPHARMA
VERNALIS

Target
263
325
3987

12M Hi
149.90
2182.00
461.90
314.00
24.00
595.50
231.75
93.50
1766.00
324.80

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy

Target
115
1225
1291
306
21
865
299
-80
1953
386

Page 11 of 15

Beta
0.82
1.38
1.00
1.12
0.84
0.80
0.85
0.54
0.77
0.72

Intellisys

04 January 2013

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance

Stock
ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.
BREWIN DOLPHIN
C AMELLIA
C HARLES STANLEY GROUP
C HARLES TAYLOR
C LOSE BROTHERS GROUP
F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT
HELPHIRE GROUP
HENDERSON GROUP
IC AP
INTERMEDIATE C APITAL GP.
INVESTEC
LONDON STOC K EX.GROUP
MAN GROUP
RATHBONE BROTHERS
SC HRODERS
SC HRODERS NV

Price
383.20
208.90
9780.00
321.00
165.00
881.50
103.10
2.00
137.70
309.90
331.70
433.10
1118.00
86.40
1305.00
1763.00
1402.00

12M Lo
215.10
136.30
9175.00
247.50
123.00
598.50
59.50
0.77
90.55
281.40
227.30
310.40
779.50
63.25
1035.00
1166.00
966.00

12M Hi
383.20
210.00
9973.00
321.00
189.75
881.50
103.10
3.61
137.90
431.50
331.70
433.10
1118.00
152.50
1373.00
1763.00
1402.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy

Beta
1.09
0.72
0.81
0.93
0.70
0.90
0.89
0.65
1.43
1.07
1.64
1.54
1.15
1.29
0.73
1.32
1.27

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock
AC AL
AGGREKO
AMEC
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABC OC K INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
C APITA
C OMMUNISIS
C OMPASS GROUP
BERENDSEN
DE LA RUE
DIGNITY
DIPLOMA
ELEC TROC OMP.
FILTRONA
G4S
HAYS
HOMESERVE
INTERSERVE
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVIC E GROUP
MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP.
MENZIES (JOHN)
MIC HAEL PAGE INTL.
MITIE GROUP
OFFIC E2OFFIC E
PAYPOINT
PREMIER FARNELL
REGUS
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RIC ARDO
ROBERT WALTERS
RPC GROUP
RPS GROUP
SERC O GROUP
SHANKS GROUP
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG

Target
142
89
8673
147
79
101
94
40
41
164
152
25
3253
80
1040
1133
3960

Price 12M Lo
201.50 157.75
1765.00 1664.00
1043.00 923.00
436.80 212.20
1006.00 720.50
410.00 317.00
1022.00 851.50
305.00 214.00
769.00 602.00
40.50
25.50
735.00 589.00
618.00 422.40
905.00 885.50
1085.00 755.50
550.00 359.10
247.90 195.20
559.00 375.50
261.90 240.00
87.20
61.55
245.40 137.50
391.10 270.10
3185.00 2047.00
37.00
25.25
22.88
21.25
626.00 520.00
416.80 341.40
270.60 252.20
123.50 118.50
817.50 540.00
194.30 153.20
111.00
82.65
96.70
63.55
448.10 360.60
378.25 304.50
194.00 161.75
412.70 348.30
210.60 179.60
550.50 488.40
90.00
75.80
39.75
19.50
105.75
45.25
50.50
37.00
343.00 212.00
73.00
42.00

12M Hi
219.50
2400.00
1172.00
445.20
1006.00
410.50
1167.00
307.00
781.50
41.25
745.00
619.00
1075.00
1090.00
560.00
263.00
586.50
292.10
92.50
310.00
393.00
3219.00
37.00
39.50
652.00
497.00
300.80
163.75
893.50
228.80
117.50
97.95
461.40
391.00
264.63
447.00
256.60
602.00
113.00
39.75
106.50
52.00
354.88
75.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell

LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
270
1120
935
266
566
685
705
390
438
63
548
834
529
665
422
275
304
245
104
424
602
1235
80
47
1134
277
294
205
606
237
94
47
521
407
270
457
212
492
142
45
43
52
531
157

Page 12 of 15

Beta
0.87
1.06
1.06
1.59
0.45
0.75
0.52
0.28
0.50
0.75
0.69
1.02
#NA
0.17
0.97
1.03
1.09
0.59
1.08
0.91
1.24
0.80
1.19
0.67
1.42
1.39
0.56
0.41
0.74
1.28
1.42
1.29
0.86
0.83
1.22
0.78
1.52
0.59
1.45
1.25
0.50
0.92
0.90
0.77

Intellisys

04 January 2013

Value Indicator UK Main market

Ov e r Va lue d

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
C ABLE & WIRELESS C OMMS.
INMARSAT
KC OM GROUP
TELEC OM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

Price 12M Lo
238.30 194.90
36.09
27.28
613.00 390.80
70.25
66.55
900.50 612.00
157.40 154.45

12M Hi
242.40
45.16
613.00
85.20
924.50
191.25

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
230.00 175.60
377.50 293.50
1188.00 1120.00
817.00 385.46
210.60 175.70
825.00 495.50
1288.00 1086.00
210.40 164.50
309.50 159.60
315.70 230.40
71.00
31.00

12M Hi
230.00
425.00
1390.00
817.00
341.90
825.00
1382.00
252.00
311.25
315.70
91.75

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell

Target
160
380
1279
551
431
311
1465
195
508
319
-28

Beta
1.31
0.98
0.80
0.76
0.99
0.80
0.94
1.33
1.40
0.93
0.90

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock
C ENTRIC A
NATIONAL GRID
PENNON GROUP
SSE
SEVERN TRENT
UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

Beta
0.89
0.67
0.53
1.26
0.05
0.53

Over Valued

Transport
Stock
BBA AVIATION
BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.
C LARKSON
EASYJET
FIRST GROUP
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
NORTHGATE
STAGEC OAC H GROUP
WINC ANTON

Target
271
67
506
105
590
137

Price 12M Lo
336.80 280.50
706.50 609.50
640.50 598.00
1450.00 1209.00
1590.00 1501.00
688.00 594.00

12M Hi
341.30
717.50
796.00
1461.00
1796.00
736.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell

Target
466
798
747
1700
1437
638

Page 13 of 15

Beta
0.47
0.53
0.56
0.45
0.36
0.50

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

04 January 2013

DISCLAIMER
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Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

04 January 2013

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