Handy Hints For Variography.

Jacqui Coombes1

ABSTRACT

The intention of this paper is to provide the user with a few essential and handy hints for variogram analysis. So often one is faced with the task of analysing the spatial continuity of a data set or with the task of generating a resource model using geostatistical techniques. However, practical

guidelines for completing these tasks are few and far between and, even though one may attend a geostatistics course, time lapses between exposure to geostatistical techniques and actual application of the techniques to real situations is generally large enough for the handy hints of variography to be lost in the never-never land of memories.

In addition to providing practical guidelines, this paper serves as a port for expressing revolutionary variogram modelling techniques which the author believes would ease the task, and in the process enhance the quality, of variogram modelling.

1.0

PREPARATION FOR VARIOGRAPHY

1.1

UNDERSTANDING THE GEOLOGICAL CONTROLS

The most important and useful ingredient to variogram modelling is understanding the controls on the mineralisation. Understanding structural controls is particularly useful in complex ore bodies with multiple, possibly cross-cutting, mineralisation structures. Strikes, dips and plunges interpreted from variography can assist with understanding the these controls.

Snowden Associates Pty Ltd, PO Box 77, West Perth, WA 6871

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1.2

THE INFORMATION EFFECT

Invalid interpretations are often caused by information effects. Because of the dense information effect downhole (that is the downhole sample spacing) relative to the drillhole spacing the variogram in the downhole direction is stable and usually well defined. In the intermediate directions, however, the representations of spatial continuity tend to be more erratic due to low densities of sample information. Ignoring the information effect when interpreting a variogram is likely to lead to results which conflict with geology.

1.3

DOMAINING DEFINITION

Failing to separate mineralisation populations can lead to misinterpretation of mineralisation controls. In a recent case study the variograms were analysed initially without separating the mineralised populations and then separating for each population. The nugget effect decreased from between 70% to 80% of the total variability to between 30% to 40% of the total variability and the ranges of mineralisation continuity increased.

By ignoring the separate population behaviour, the variograms are interpreted as having a larger nugget effect and shorter ranges of continuity than is suitable to the data, resulting in inappropriate models of mineralisation.

If the data is interpolated using the high nugget effect, the resource model is over-smoothed. If the data is simulated using the high nugget effect, the simulation model is too erratic.

This illustrates the importance of defining suitable domains.

1.4

GRADE POPULATION SHAPE

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It is important that the correct variogram is selected for analysing the spatial behaviour of mineralisation. By selecting an ordinary (absolute) variogram to analyse the spatial behaviour, one is inherently assuming that the data follows a normal distribution.

Very seldom does one encounter a normal distribution in the iron ore industry. The statistical distribution of iron tends to be negatively skewed, whilst the contaminants tend to have positively skewed distributions (Figure 1).

Consider the impact of calculating the variance on a skewed data distribution. Because the data distribution is skewed there are many sample values at one extreme and only a few sample values at the opposite extreme. This

imbalance in the frequency of sample values causes the average estimate to be biased towards the low frequency tail. In calculating the variance, one is establishing the average behaviour of the difference between the sample values and the raw mean value, which, in this case, is biased towards the low frequency tail. Figure 2 illustrates the imbalance caused by a negatively

skewed distribution.

If grades have a skewed distribution, as they usually are in the mining industry, it is imperative that the data be transformed to a normal distribution either through a Gaussian transformation such as a Hermite polynomial or a normal score transform before calculating and interpreting an ordinary variogram. Alternatively, the spatial behaviour of mineralisation of a skewed data distribution can be analysed using a relative variogram or a series of indicator variograms. close to lognormal. Log variograms are appropriate if the distribution is

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Fe data typically has negatively skewed distributions

Frequency

mean median mode

Fe grades

Contaminant data typically has positively skewed distributions

Frequency

mode median mean

Contaminant values

Figure 1: Positive and negative statistical distributions

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differences between sample grade and raw mean

Frequency

raw mean grade

Grade Values
Figure 2: Calculating the variance when the data distribution is negatively skew

Other variogram tools which account for the skewness of the data distribution include the pairwise and general relative variograms. These two variogram types are especially useful when the data density is low and the underlying data distribution is positively skewed (Journel and Deutsch, 1992).

Understanding the statistical behaviour of the mineralisation assists one in selecting the appropriate variogram tool.

1.5

SAMPLE SUPPORT VOLUMES

The volume-variance effect is a concept which is becoming more readily understood by the mining industry. The volume-variance effect describes the impact of the volume of the samples on the grade distributions. Essentially the smaller the sample volume the greater the variability between samples and the greater the variance. This volume-variance effect manifests itself in the histogram as a greater spread in grades for smaller sample volumes (Figure 3).

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The variogram summarises the spatial breakdown of the variance.

In

calculating the spatial variability it is imperative that the variability is not distorted by analysing the differences between sample grades which are based on different volumes. The input data should be composited to equal volumes prior to any variography

Probability Distribution 2500 2000 Frequency 1500 1000 500 0 10 20 30 Grade 40

Low Variance

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 50

High Variance

Figure 3: Probability distributions with high and low variances (small and large sample volumes respectively)

In compositing, however, sample values from a large volume should not be split into smaller volumes. By splitting samples values it is possible that a low nugget artefact may be introduced (Figure 4). It is more appropriate to

composite up to a larger volume or to examine the spatial variability on similar sample volumes.

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Drillhole A raw sample grades 22%

Drillhole A composited to minimum length 22% 22% 68% 10% 10% 10% False measure of good continuity will affect the nugget effect and short range structures

68%

10%

10% 10% 10% 10%

67% 33%

67% 33% 33%

Figure 4: Sample splitting compositing and the effect on spatial variability

1.6

CORRELATED DATA

Developing an understanding of the spatial relationship between iron mineralisation and the associated contaminant allows a better informed model to be generated. By describing the spatial relationship between iron and silica, for example, one is in a better position to estimate silica in those areas where only iron samples and limited silica samples may have been analysed.

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Cross-variograms between elements require both sets of data to follow normal distributions or to be transformed to normal distributions. Cross

variograms can describe both positive and negative spatial correlations between elements and are particularly useful in the iron ore industry.

2.0

CALCULATING THE VARIOGRAM

It is so much easier, though not always appropriate, to calculate a variogram using default variogram parameters provided by software programs. This

section provides guidelines for selecting appropriate variogram parameters.

2.1

SELECTING THE LAG SPACING

The lag spacing defines the incremental distance at which the variogram is calculated. The first point to note is that the lag distance should be at least equal to the sample spacing. For example, calculating the downhole

variogram at a lag of 10m when the sample spacing is 15m will only provide variogram information at every second lag. Similarly, calculating a variogram with a lag of 10m when the drilling pattern is a 25m x 25m pattern will result in variograms at intermediate lags being based on relatively low numbers of sample pairs. The resulting variograms are usually erratic and difficult to interpret.

It is wise to visualise the number of sample pairs for each variogram point and opt for a lag spacing which provides gradual changes in sample pair support for the variogram values.

2.2

SELECTING THE NUMBER OF LAGS

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The number of lags at which variograms should be calculated should be restricted by the lag size as well as the dimensions of the data coverage. A common rule of thumb is to restrict the variography to half the diagonal of the data extent. This rule of thumb is subject to the shape of the domain. A long narrow ore body, for example, usually needs more lags along the strike length than across it.

2.3

SELECTING THE ANGULAR TOLERANCE

Selection of the angular tolerance depends on a combination of factors. The most important factor is the expected anisotropy of the mineralisation continuity. If the mineralisation has a high anisotropic ratio, then one needs to minimise the angular tolerance to describe the inherent anisotropy (Figure 5).

The selection of the angular tolerance is also subject to the data density. It may be that the data available is insufficient to describe the variability and that a wider tolerance better reflects the spatial continuity. In such a situation it may be wise to model the spatial variance proportions of the variogram with a wide angular tolerance and then to infer the ranges of continuity with the assistance of geological understanding.

3.0

MODELLING THE VARIOGRAM

Modelling variograms can be one of the most daunting tasks facing the novice. This task is made easier when the preparation steps discussed

above are followed and in particular, when the geological controls on mineralisation are well understood.

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NORTH STRIKE True Anisotropy

45o tolerance for all directions

WEST

EAST

90o tolerance for all directions

SOUTH
Figure 5: Effect of tolerance angle on anisotropy

3.1

THE NUGGET EFFECT

The nugget effect is best based on the closest spaced data, usually the downhole direction.

The nugget effect also manifests itself in duplicate data analysis. Analysis of sample integrity can assist one in understanding and modelling the inherent nugget effect for the variogram of the element under investigation.

3.2

NESTING STRUCTURES

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Variogram shapes can be modelled by nesting several classical variogram shapes such as the spherical or exponential shapes. The key to variogram modelling is parsimony - one should model variograms with as few structures as necessary to describe the continuity.

4.0

INTERPRETING VARIOGRAMS

Variograms need not only be a step towards interpolation. Variograms can assist the user in investigating geological domaining issues such as mixed mineralisation populations within domains, cross-cutting mineralisation continuity and determining the axial directions of fold limbs. Understanding the spatial patterns and the ranges of influence is particularly useful when deciding on drill spacings and patterns. By interpreting the

nugget effect, the proportion of spatial variability and the ranges of influence, one is able to assess whether current drill spacing adequately describes the mineralisation continuity or whether further drilling is required. Based on a model of the variogram one can determine the drill spacing required to improve the definition of the iron or contaminant models.

The existence of grade trends in the data manifest themselves as hyperbolic variograms (Figure 6), whilst repetitive structures (such as parallel sedimentary layers) are described as hole-effects perpendicular to the layers (Figure 7).

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(h)
semivariogram

TREND
X

X X X X X X X X X

Theoretical Sill

0
(h)
semivariogram

lag

Figure 6: Variogram with evidence of a Trend in the data

HOLE EFFECT

X X X X X

X X X X X X X

Theoretical Sill
X X

lag

Figure 7: Variogram with evidence of a hole-effect in the data

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5.0

ADVANCED VARIOGRAM CONCEPTS

5.1

VARIOGRAM FANS

Variogram fans are contours of spatial variability within specified planes. A horizontal variogram fan (Figure 8), for example, describes the spatial variability in the horizontal plane. Management of the variograms in the

multitude of directions and distances and modelling appropriate variograms requires some intelligent thinking! This is especially so when a non-

parametric approach to variography (indicator variography) is employed for a series of grade ranges. Fortunately, software (VISOR) is now available to allow the user to spend more time on interpreting mineralisation behaviour and an almost negligent amount of time on data management.

5.2

3D VARIOGRAM MODELLING

A revolutionary approach to variogram modelling has been proposed (Coombes, 1996). The 3D modelling tool is a 3D rubber-banding of ellipses (Figure 9) which allows the user to model the full 3D spatial continuity interactively instead of using a two stage approach (direction selection and independent variogram modelling). As the user selects a direction of

maximum continuity (say the strike) off the horizontal variogram fan, one is able to model the strike variogram using a rubber-banding approach. This model is then applied to the variogram fan as a series of ellipses and the difference between actual and modelled fan contour is updated. The ellipses can then be rubber-banded until the difference map shows no remaining patterns of spatial continuity. Variograms in any directions can be selected and the models in those directions re-evaluated whilst updating the difference map. This process can be repeated for any plane until the user approves of the resulting 3D ellipsoid modelled variogram.

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Figure 8: Horizontal variogram fan from VISOR

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Control tags to adjust the ranges and orientations of the variogram models

Figure 9: 3D variogram modelling

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Acknowledgments:

The author would like to thank Vivienne Snowden, Christine Standing and Gordon Thomas of Snowden Associates for their useful comments and suggestions. References:

Coombes J. (1996) Latest Developments in Visualising Spatial Continuity from Variogram Analysis, AusIMM Conference Diversity - the Key to Prosperity, pages 295 -300, Perth. Journel A. G. and Deutsch C. V (1992) GSLIB Users Guide, Oxford University Press