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CBSE XII Math Probability 1/3

CBSE XII Mathematics

Probability
1.0
(

Old Results
) ( ) ( ) ( )

1.1

Independent Events
Probability of both occurring: ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Events A and B are independent if occurrence of one doesnt depend on another.

1.2
(

Conditional Probability
)
( ( ) ) ( ( ) ( ( ) )

P(A/B) = probability of A under the condition that B has already occurred = common occurrences of A and B out of total occurrences of B, P(B) 0
) ( ( ) )

Similarly, (

, P(A) 0

1.3

Bayes Theorem
: : E1, E2, E3, , En, mutually exclusive ( ) P(E1), P(E2), P(E3), , P(En); ( ) ( ) ( )

n events Their probabilities Total probability of A

An event A may occur with each Ei :

What Does It Mean In English? Event A is independent. Its occurrences are divided across Eis. Probability of A occurring with Ei = P(A/Ei) Partial probability of A coming from Ei = P(A/Ei). P(Ei) This can also be seen as contribution from Ei to P(A) Total probability of A = sum of contributions from all Eis Total probability of A: ( ) ( ) ( )

Application in life Manufacturing There are many machines.

CBSE XII Math Probability 2/3

In each machine, the probability of defect is different. Given a defect, we want to know what is the probability that it came from a specific machine

Bayes Theorem Conditional probability of Ei, given that A has occurred: ( )


( ) ( ) ( )

What Does It Mean In English? Out of total probability of A, how much is the fractional contribution from Ei? Absolute contribution of Ei to P(A) Fractional contribution of Ei to P(A) : : P(A/Ei). P(Ei) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )

Generic Solution Steps For 3 machines Probability of machine i Probability of defect in machine i Defect probability contribution from machine i Fractional Defect probability contribution from machine i P(Mi) P(M1) P(M2) P(M3) P(Mi) P(D/Mi) P(D/M1) P(D/M2) P(D/M3) DPC(Mi) = P(D/Mi). P(Mi) DPC(Mi) = P(D/M1). P(M1) DPC(Mi) = P(D/M2). P(M2) DPC(Mi) = P(D/M3). P(M3) P(D) = DPC(Mi) ( ( ( ( = ( ) ) ) )
( ( ) ( ( ) ( ( ) ( ( ) ) ) ) )

) = P(D)

1.4

Probability Distribution

S = sample space of a random experiment X = a real-valued function X(w) = random variable = unique real number assigned by X for each w S Discrete random variable = random variable which can assume only a finite number of values Probability distribution = values of a random variable along with corresponding probabilities X P(X) Conditions Mean (expected value of X) xi pi x1 p1 x2 p2 x3 p3 xn pn

: :

each pi 0, ( )

CBSE XII Math Probability 3/3

Variance Standard deviation

: :

1.5

Binomial Distribution
Binomial = two outcomes

Bi = two, nom = number

Applicable to experiments which have only two outcomes success or failure. Bernoullis theorem n = number of trials p = probability of success q = probability of failure, p + q = 1 Random variable: X = number of successes Probability of r successes Recurrence Mean Variance Variance : : : : : P(X = r) = nCr pr qn-r ( = np 2 = npq = ) ( )

Conditions for Bernoullis theorem 1. Number of trials n is finite and fixed 2. Each trial gives a success or failure 3. p and q are constant

Probability Table r
n

0 1 q
n

1 n npq
n-1

2 n(n-1) n(n-1) p q
2 n-2 n n

3 C3
3 n-3


n n

r Cr
r n-r

n-2 n(n-1) n(n-1) p


n-2 2

n-1 n q np
n-1

n n q pn

Cr

P(X = r)

C3 p q

Cr p q