Energy Management

7.2 Energy Management Products and Solutions

real-time conditions changes. The load forecast applications further described below supports, besides electricity, also commodities such as water and gas; supports multiple concurrent users and a working forecast environment to allow for review and tuning/adjustments before load forecast is made current for real-time use; and provides for adjustments (e.g. scaling) and tracking mode (i.e. the next few hours of the active forecast are (automatically or on manual request) adjusted based on the observed deviations between the actual measurement and forecast during the last few hours). Medium-/Long-Term Load Forecast (MTLF/LTLF) MTLF is used to forecast the load over a period of 1 week up to 2 years whilst LTLF is used to forecast the load over a period of 1 year up to 5 years. The methods used in both applications are processing historical data with multiple regression analysis (one method is based on the ARIMA model). Short-Term Load Forecast (STLF) STLF is used to forecast the load over a period of few days up to 14 days in 30-60 minutes increments. The load forecast supports several prediction algorithms (e.g. Similar Day, Pattern Matching, and Regression Analysis) that can be used separately or in user congurable combination and provides the operator with tools to edit the forecast. Very Short-Term Load Forecast (VSTLF) VSTLF is used to forecast the load over a 1-2 hour period in short, e.g. 5 minutes, time increments. The method used by VSTLF is based on a neural network algorithm and its use divided in two phases: the training phase and the forecast phase. Training is executed automatically periodically or on request. Short-Term Inow Forecast (STIF) STIF calculates future inows into a hydrological system. On the basis of this data, the planning function (e.g., hydro scheduling) can calculate the schedule for hydro plant units. Power Scheduling Applications The aim of Scheduling Applications (SA) is to optimize the use of individual power plants (thermal, hydro) and external power transactions in such a way that either the total operating cost is minimized or the total prot on energy sales is maximized after taking all maintenance and operational constraints into account. The scheduling applications use a sophisticated combination of Mixed Integer Linear Programming and successive Linear Programming. Special techniques are applied to consider non-linear effects and speed up the solution process (g. 7.2-12). The scheduling applications include: Resource Scheduler (RO) Resource Scheduler optimizes either the medium-term generation plan including energy transactions for minimum cost or the medium-term electricity delivery contracts including energy trades for maximum prot subject to optimal use of energy resources (fuels, water, emission, etc.), to maintenance constraints, to emission rights, etc.

7
Stochastic 5-20 years Expansion planning Applications
1-5 years Long-term planning 1-2 years Long-term bilateral trading Resource optimization Maintenance scheduling

1-7 days

Short-term planning

Day-ahead trading

Hydro-thermal coordination

Trade optimizing scheduler

Deterministic

1-15 minutes

Dispatch

Real-time trading

Economic dispatch

online

Control

Automatic generation control

Fig. 7.2-12: Generation management and planning

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Siemens Energy Sector Power Engineering Guide Edition 7.0