Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Intellisys
15 January 2013
Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
Timing .......................................................................................................................... 3
Value ........................................................................................................................... 4
Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 4
How to use the report ....................................................................................................... 5
Over Valued ............................................................... 6
Aerospace & Defence
Automobiles & Parts
Banks
Beverages
Chemicals
Life Assurance
Media & Entertainment
Mining
Real Estate
DISCLAIMER ................................................................................................................... 14
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ............................................................................. 15
Page 2 of 15
Intellisys
15 January 2013
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will
identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and
information noisy trading environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically,
before the official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the
two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that
influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been
established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well
as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find
stories for their investment meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading
indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as
well as some 74% accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks
analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
Page 3 of 15
Intellisys
15 January 2013
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a
daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the
Consolidated Income Statement but also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and
then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment
research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend
themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as
realistically valid as possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of
market levels but a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating
operating environment set against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a
modest range of some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the
intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies
as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme.
However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to
challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors
from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems
active position monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and
not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment
options with their financial advisers.
Page 4 of 15
Intellisys
15 January 2013
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
21.16
6.36
9.36
2.20
21.69
6.55
Neutral
Neutral
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
23.50
324.70
0.40
19.50
189.00
0.24
82.00
342.30
17.00
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
JD SPORTS FASHION
731.00
570.00
863.00
Neutral
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Latest 12 month
Hi/Lo for the
share price
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Strong
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
38
4
1.56
0.94
112
415
-62
1.05
0.67
0.88
1341
0.47
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
eta measures a
shares
volatility/risk
relative to market
(see below)
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta of
1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from the
market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
Page 5 of 15
Intellisys
15 January 2013
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
348.60 270.90
283.00 217.00
220.80 179.70
425.20 359.40
898.00 717.08
1218.00 937.50
1661.00 1424.00
12M Hi
363.60
460.00
239.50
431.40
918.00
1221.00
1780.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
241.10 173.60
449.40 305.20
73.00
49.50
17.50
7.32
12M Hi
241.10
449.40
79.00
18.50
ST Rec
LT
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong
Price 12M Lo
298.90 150.55
675.80 503.20
54.92
25.29
364.50 196.60
1683.00 1228.50
12M Hi
299.65
677.70
54.92
364.50
1683.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
490.00 348.00
1788.00 1381.00
2915.50 2293.00
12M Hi
500.00
1886.50
2932.00
Beta
1.96
1.44
1.28
1.10
Target
207
1073
63
-96
1394
Beta
1.91
1.16
1.86
1.37
1.71
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Target
526
1563
3409
Beta
0.49
0.54
1.00
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
C RODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
VIC TREX
SYNTHOMER
ZOTEFOAMS
Target
227
424
87
27
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
BARR (AG)
DIAGEO
SABMILLER
Rec
Sell
Sell
Buy
Buy
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
BARC LAYS
HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
ROYAL BANK OF SC TL.GP.
STANDARD C HARTERED
Beta
0.67
0.55
0.87
1.32
1.09
0.70
0.56
Over Valued
Target
532
553
260
357
615
939
1411
Price
2294.00
226.00
2243.00
1591.00
189.50
203.50
12M Lo
1892.00
146.70
2009.30
1185.00
127.40
117.00
12M Hi
2501.00
240.30
2573.00
1649.00
251.00
225.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Target
3836
302
6187
1694
322
187
Page 6 of 15
Beta
1.04
1.03
1.44
1.14
1.19
0.98
Intellisys
Over Valued
Price
289.10
225.10
1102.00
1784.00
630.00
323.60
61.25
254.00
805.00
731.00
1353.00
56.75
105.00
549.00
863.00
174.70
133.90
73.05
1211.00
3033.00
12M Lo
237.90
107.60
660.00
1177.00
399.30
235.50
38.75
188.00
470.00
308.75
1095.00
43.00
76.00
508.00
515.00
107.30
82.30
40.28
853.50
2101.31
12M Hi
320.80
227.30
1109.00
1798.00
630.00
344.00
61.50
263.50
807.00
740.00
1489.00
66.50
107.50
725.00
870.50
174.70
136.20
74.25
1218.00
3038.00
Price 12M Lo
1117.00 745.00
628.50 509.00
124.50 105.50
351.60 181.60
234.50 156.00
1514.00 905.50
1900.00 1061.00
1976.00 1427.00
0.08
0.08
159.00 114.00
280.00 185.00
12M Hi
1244.00
670.00
149.50
351.60
243.90
1514.00
2081.00
2100.00
0.22
203.50
292.00
Target
-71
30
578
3242
60
-269
14
498
-38
282
857
80
37
17
212
23
152
-11
428
1439
Beta
0.83
1.49
1.09
0.65
1.13
1.12
0.79
0.61
1.02
1.26
0.96
1.07
1.31
0.83
1.14
1.04
1.66
1.57
1.94
1.44
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Target
692
840
220
308
91
1059
2172
1967
0
354
206
Beta
0.76
1.14
1.33
1.37
2.12
0.98
1.26
1.44
0.83
1.60
1.13
Over Valued
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Over Valued
15 January 2013
Price
83.25
455.00
343.50
367.20
399.90
447.00
420.50
1117.00
4.50
281.70
2550.00
207.50
118.00
2282.00
586.50
1936.00
12M Lo
54.25
290.10
253.00
263.19
329.30
344.00
268.00
776.00
3.88
220.30
1859.00
177.00
81.50
1900.00
553.50
1397.00
12M Hi
92.00
481.90
358.50
380.80
483.70
460.00
421.00
1141.00
9.00
360.00
2616.00
215.00
219.50
2343.00
740.00
2236.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Target
133
492
643
499
525
359
345
1216
5
495
1792
211
89
2048
609
1862
Page 7 of 15
Beta
1.24
1.59
0.98
2.21
1.43
0.77
1.34
1.38
0.81
1.78
1.00
1.68
0.96
0.82
1.44
1.37
Intellisys
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
451.00 449.00
252.00 251.90
325.60 283.20
351.20 297.05
44.50
9.50
12M Hi
558.00
305.70
361.10
355.40
45.50
ST Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
1500.00 1131.00
876.50 730.50
396.60 290.40
328.30 250.30
121.50
54.50
759.00 633.50
2378.00 1994.00
12M Hi
1591.00
895.00
405.60
341.20
180.00
793.50
2429.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Price 12M Lo
29.00
20.38
376.70 222.40
1325.00 1000.00
662.50 529.50
27.98
9.89
8.66
2.76
31.50
19.50
328.50 189.00
720.00 606.50
65.00
38.00
286.90 246.50
367.20 312.20
71.00
33.75
315.50 152.00
3960.00 2589.00
1150.00 730.00
52.50
30.50
12M Hi
29.50
380.00
1586.00
728.50
29.80
9.25
58.75
356.80
863.00
85.70
313.80
398.80
71.00
362.00
3995.00
1198.00
55.25
LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Buy
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Beta
0.46
0.43
0.63
0.72
0.84
Target
1308
1281
356
298
-131
921
3136
Beta
0.59
0.58
0.91
0.30
1.39
0.65
0.58
Target
32
341
927
265
37
3
106
474
1439
85
372
490
59
387
3488
621
47
Beta
0.72
0.51
1.31
0.96
1.57
1.12
1.01
0.68
0.47
1.24
0.95
0.73
1.02
0.45
0.69
0.57
1.29
Over Valued
Health
Stock
C ONSORT MEDIC AL
C ORIN GROUP
SMITH & NEPHEW
Target
626
194
217
270
31
Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
C ARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENC H C ONNEC TN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENC ER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERC ARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Under Valued
15 January 2013
Price 12M Lo
744.00 523.00
70.00
35.25
691.50 580.00
12M Hi
831.50
70.00
693.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Target
643
67
725
Page 8 of 15
Beta
0.45
0.67
0.36
Intellisys
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
662.50 487.50
330.00 262.00
76.75
55.25
12M Hi
720.50
345.00
127.63
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Price 12M Lo
873.00 469.00
357.30 194.60
36.75
23.00
435.30 383.50
149.20 118.80
205.00 145.00
12M Hi
873.00
376.20
47.25
717.00
174.00
230.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
1183.00 862.00
390.00 312.90
188.70 132.50
510.00 399.00
469.30 371.30
775.00 659.00
126.50
97.65
420.00 335.00
12M Hi
1231.00
405.00
188.70
518.00
489.40
790.00
127.90
421.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Beta
0.38
0.92
0.74
Target
490
942
40
439
609
-255
Beta
0.75
1.21
0.80
1.06
0.94
0.99
LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Target
370
-2719
1413
703
1919
2929
1572
1784
Beta
0.55
0.47
0.56
0.29
0.48
0.30
0.42
0.46
Over Valued
Target
647
288
102
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
ADMIRAL GROUP
AMLIN
BEAZLEY
C ATLIN GROUP
HISC OX
JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON
RSA INSURANC E GROUP
NOVAE GROUP
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Over Valued
15 January 2013
Price
2444.00
99.65
282.30
766.00
651.00
202.20
1768.00
536.00
315.60
108.10
11.25
146.50
370.00
516.00
2413.00
341.60
126.50
12M Lo
1841.00
27.75
158.00
680.00
474.30
134.00
1221.42
394.30
217.40
91.90
5.61
111.00
269.20
371.30
1616.00
209.00
91.20
12M Hi
2545.00
105.00
289.00
798.00
651.00
203.00
1777.00
536.00
337.00
174.00
12.25
154.30
391.70
548.50
2546.00
357.50
127.70
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
3991
56
707
574
540
165
1492
554
258
72
36
460
289
661
1753
250
13
Page 9 of 15
Beta
0.99
1.64
1.01
0.40
0.91
0.92
1.18
1.36
1.06
1.25
1.20
0.98
0.81
0.73
0.98
0.90
1.23
Intellisys
15 January 2013
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
AVIVA
C HESNARA
LEGAL & GENERAL
OLD MUTUAL
PRUDENTIAL
ST.JAMES'S PLAC E
Price 12M Lo
376.80 255.30
206.75 155.25
149.80 106.00
185.30 138.70
926.00 660.00
443.20 303.40
12M Hi
388.40
207.50
151.50
185.30
926.00
443.20
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
235.50 149.20
116.00
99.00
775.00 635.50
51.50
28.50
582.50 363.50
895.50 645.00
472.20 340.00
249.80 180.00
111.70
69.45
12.00
4.88
1182.00 1111.00
64.50
36.25
282.50 237.62
29.39
26.66
120.50
81.50
124.25
67.50
100.00
25.50
709.00 511.00
158.50
78.50
945.00 737.50
0.32
0.26
12M Hi
237.80
146.50
792.50
51.75
582.50
895.50
472.60
249.80
111.70
15.00
1294.00
65.50
377.50
30.02
120.50
125.00
102.00
750.00
160.00
945.00
6.27
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Price
2036.50
279.75
1297.00
2074.50
332.60
5885.00
3473.50
7.00
12M Lo
1664.00
221.25
991.00
1681.00
240.84
4596.00
2715.50
3.75
832.50
1175.00 785.80
12M Hi
2910.00
340.00
1399.00
2208.50
599.98
7775.00
3988.00
34.00
1502.00
1283.00
Target
-635
1548
148
3152
5519
-35
274
1220
1503
341
2373
518
-602
283
-300
2214
1164
209
839
26
58
Beta
1.29
0.35
0.55
0.99
1.07
0.97
1.56
1.43
1.55
1.27
0.65
0.80
0.19
0.52
0.76
1.43
1.57
1.33
0.87
1.31
1.11
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral
Target
3284
314
1077
3940
43
3290
3917
190
2851
1162
Beta
1.73
1.00
1.45
1.42
1.94
0.27
1.48
0.90
2.17
1.78
Under Valued
LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERIC AN
ANGLO PAC IFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
LONMIN
RANDGOLD RESOURC ES
RIO TINTO
C OALFIELD RESOURC ES
VEDANTA RESOURC ES
XSTRATA
Target
1076
321
265
158
843
397
Price
1048.00
459.30
281.80
11.50
822.00
78.00
362.80
2212.50
383.30
1172.00
783.50
12M Lo
1000.50
391.95
248.20
7.86
688.00
68.00
321.30
2039.00
254.90
1150.00
647.00
12M Hi
1547.00
504.60
360.00
12.50
968.00
187.75
449.70
2399.00
383.30
1601.00
875.50
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Target
1212
1524
-24
15
517
294
289
10814
249
781
820
Page 10 of 15
Beta
0.78
1.06
1.35
0.89
1.27
1.45
1.39
0.90
0.53
1.09
1.35
Beta
1.29
0.67
1.69
1.63
1.70
0.83
Intellisys
15 January 2013
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
134.50 102.70
384.00 285.00
3950.00 3300.00
12M Hi
140.00
393.70
3996.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Price
3.20
3030.00
332.10
611.00
1372.50
2.40
8.37
2042.00
72.00
22.88
12M Lo
2.54
2591.00
300.30
418.33
1317.50
2.05
5.88
1727.00
31.00
19.25
12M Hi
3.98
3111.50
423.00
643.00
1507.50
5.80
12.75
2300.00
101.50
27.38
ST Rec
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Price 12M Lo
367.70 267.00
567.00 466.10
27.50
22.75
765.00 560.00
2193.00 1585.00
169.75 121.75
125.00
83.10
493.30 337.60
486.00 369.60
235.25 164.00
827.00 634.00
364.80 305.00
134.50 110.25
355.75 298.00
58.25
32.50
457.50 300.80
563.50 482.20
245.60 199.70
228.10 110.50
185.00 135.00
281.70 170.60
1.45
1.00
312.40 213.25
12M Hi
375.00
577.00
34.25
804.00
2205.00
176.00
125.00
502.00
497.70
247.00
832.50
366.00
144.00
390.00
58.75
480.00
571.00
259.20
241.10
189.50
290.10
4.13
313.80
Target
28
5490
362
2390
236
11
3
1493
218
93
Beta
1.03
0.49
0.62
0.24
0.50
0.67
0.95
0.67
0.71
0.84
Price 12M Lo
137.10
93.00
2134.00 1469.00
406.20 292.40
295.00 240.00
23.75
18.25
602.00 422.36
175.50 135.00
78.00
64.50
1531.00 1275.00
310.00 247.70
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Target
-635
1548
148
3152
5519
-35
274
1220
1503
341
2373
518
-602
283
-300
2214
1164
209
839
26
58
-1064
1155
Beta
1.14
1.03
0.68
0.67
1.20
0.93
1.47
1.05
1.14
0.70
1.14
1.09
0.71
0.42
1.15
0.66
1.01
1.66
1.46
1.06
1.75
1.01
0.99
Under Valued
LT Rec
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
BIG YELLOW GROUP
BRITISH LAND
C APITAL & REGIONAL
C LS HOLDINGS
DERWENT LONDON
DEVELOPMENT SEC S.
GRAINGER
GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES
HAMMERSON
HELIC AL BAR
LAND SEC URITIES GROUP
C APITAL SHOPC TS.GROUP
MC KAY SEC URITIES
MUC KLOW (A & J) GROUP
QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.
SAVILLS
SHAFTESBURY
SEGRO
ST MODWEN PROPS.
TOWN C ENTRE SEC URITIES
UNITE GROUP
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPAC E GROUP
Beta
0.85
0.72
0.36
Over Valued
Target
261
322
3996
12M Hi
149.90
2182.00
461.90
314.00
24.00
610.00
231.75
93.50
1766.00
324.80
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Target
116
1239
1297
308
21
881
301
-84
1973
390
Page 11 of 15
Beta
0.81
1.39
0.99
1.12
0.84
0.81
0.85
0.53
0.77
0.71
Intellisys
15 January 2013
Over Valued
Price
397.70
203.50
#####
328.00
172.50
941.00
102.50
2.85
148.00
323.50
340.20
454.60
1143.00
93.15
1319.00
1868.00
1476.00
12M Lo
12M Hi
218.40
397.70
136.30
210.50
9175.00 10300.00
247.50
334.13
123.00
189.75
615.50
941.00
63.50
104.70
0.77
3.61
90.55
148.00
281.40
431.50
227.30
340.20
310.40
454.60
841.50 1156.00
63.25
152.50
1090.00 1373.00
1166.00 1868.00
966.00 1476.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell Strong Buy
Beta
1.10
0.73
0.81
0.93
0.70
0.90
0.89
0.66
1.44
1.07
1.65
1.55
1.15
1.29
0.74
1.33
1.27
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
AC AL
AGGREKO
AMEC
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABC OC K INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
C APITA
C OMMUNISIS
C OMPASS GROUP
BERENDSEN
DE LA RUE
DIGNITY
DIPLOMA
ELEC TROC OMP.
FILTRONA
G4S
HAYS
HOMESERVE
INTERSERVE
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVIC E GROUP
MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP.
MENZIES (JOHN)
MIC HAEL PAGE INTL.
MITIE GROUP
OFFIC E2OFFIC E
PAYPOINT
PREMIER FARNELL
REGUS
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RIC ARDO
ROBERT WALTERS
RPC GROUP
RPS GROUP
SERC O GROUP
SHANKS GROUP
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
Target
150
95
9274
159
89
140
97
41
45
181
171
50
3324
86
1074
1187
4071
Price 12M Lo
197.50 157.75
1749.00 1664.00
1081.00 923.00
446.90 212.20
991.00 720.50
407.00 317.00
1064.00 851.50
346.00 214.00
779.50 602.00
49.75
25.50
745.50 589.00
616.00 422.40
929.00 885.50
1085.00 755.50
545.00 369.90
242.50 195.20
543.00 375.50
270.30 240.00
90.50
65.05
243.00 137.50
430.00 270.10
3053.00 2078.00
39.50
25.50
24.50
21.25
635.00 520.00
402.80 341.40
275.20 252.20
100.00 100.00
838.00 542.50
197.40 153.20
106.00
82.65
91.30
69.40
457.20 373.70
400.00 304.50
202.00 176.25
409.00 348.30
228.00 197.00
552.00 505.50
94.75
75.80
39.75
19.75
120.00
60.00
52.75
38.50
332.00 212.00
72.00
42.00
12M Hi
219.50
2400.00
1172.00
446.90
1009.00
417.00
1167.00
350.00
781.50
49.75
747.50
619.50
1075.00
1102.00
560.00
263.00
586.50
292.10
92.50
310.00
434.50
3219.00
42.00
39.50
652.00
497.00
300.80
163.75
893.50
228.80
117.50
97.95
461.90
402.00
264.63
447.00
256.60
602.00
113.00
39.75
122.00
53.25
354.88
75.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Target
276
1127
952
269
579
699
721
397
446
64
559
846
542
663
427
280
309
252
106
427
614
1254
82
48
1151
282
301
210
612
241
96
48
531
414
276
467
216
503
145
46
44
53
539
159
Page 12 of 15
Beta
0.89
1.04
1.05
1.59
0.45
0.75
0.52
0.28
0.50
0.75
0.69
1.03
#NA
0.18
0.97
1.04
1.09
0.58
1.09
0.91
1.24
0.80
1.23
0.66
1.42
1.40
0.56
0.42
0.73
1.28
1.42
1.31
0.87
0.83
1.23
0.78
1.51
0.59
1.45
1.26
0.50
0.93
0.90
0.77
Intellisys
15 January 2013
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
C ABLE & WIRELESS C OMMS.
INMARSAT
KC OM GROUP
TELEC OM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price 12M Lo
243.30 200.70
37.72
27.28
617.50 390.80
75.50
67.00
920.00 612.00
163.85 154.45
12M Hi
247.10
45.16
625.00
85.20
924.50
191.25
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
221.20 178.00
383.00 309.50
1267.00 1130.00
845.00 403.05
192.90 175.70
840.00 495.50
1290.00 1086.00
213.90 164.50
315.50 159.60
298.70 230.40
68.00
31.00
12M Hi
231.20
425.00
1390.00
848.00
316.50
844.50
1374.00
252.00
317.00
319.60
91.75
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Target
163
385
1297
559
438
317
1491
199
518
315
-29
Beta
1.31
0.99
0.80
0.76
0.99
0.80
0.94
1.34
1.41
0.93
0.91
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
C ENTRIC A
NATIONAL GRID
PENNON GROUP
SSE
SEVERN TRENT
UNITED UTILITIES GROUP
Beta
0.89
0.67
0.52
1.27
0.05
0.53
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
BBA AVIATION
BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.
C LARKSON
EASYJET
FIRST GROUP
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
NORTHGATE
STAGEC OAC H GROUP
WINC ANTON
Target
277
69
518
108
608
140
Price 12M Lo
332.90 282.40
687.50 610.50
650.50 598.00
1436.00 1209.00
1550.00 1501.00
685.00 594.00
12M Hi
341.30
717.50
796.00
1466.00
1796.00
736.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Target
462
789
739
1690
1420
631
Page 13 of 15
Beta
0.48
0.53
0.56
0.45
0.36
0.50
Intellisys
15 January 2013
DISCLAIMER
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No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
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Page 14 of 15
Intellisys
15 January 2013
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority and does
not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
Page 15 of 15