Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) - World Trend 2011/2012

by Eduardo Petazze
Better known by its trade name Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI ), the Markit surveys, and the like, covering
management expectations for manufacturing activity in some 38 countries.
Being a composite index, weighted generally expected levels of production, orders, employment, time supplies, inventories,
etc., in the form of diffusion index, for next month compared the previous month's levels.
Positive responses (growth) are weighted at 100% and the answers "no change" are weighted by 50%.
In this manner, an index above 50 points indicates expansion in activity, whereas if it is lower, is interpreted as a contraction
in activity.
Each component of the index is seasonally adjusted and are generally published the seasonally adjusted composite index
compared to the previous month.
For some countries (Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, USA) there is more than one measurement PMI manufacturing, and
regional activity indices for UK and U.S.
Aggregate Indices to the European Union (EU) and other global are published on a monthly and a quarterly indicator for
emerging countries.
The following tables show the evolution of PMI indices for 37 countries during the years 2011 and 2012, and a new global
manufacturing PMI added, using as weights the GDP measured at PPP, as estimated by the IMF data for 2012.

During 2011 only two months in global manufacturing activity had a clear expectation of contraction
Weight
Manufacturing PMI
%
Reference
Country
1.39% Australian Industry Group
Australia
0.52% Bank Austria
Austria
3.41% HSBC
Brazil
2.09% See detail below
Canada
17.86% See detail below
China
0.41% HSBC
Czech Rep.
0.30% DILF
Denmark
3.25% MARKIT
France
4.61% MARKIT / BME
Germany
0.41% MARKIT
Greece
0.52% HSBC - composite index
Hong Kong
0.28% MLBKT
Hungary
6.80% HSBC
India
1.75% HSBC
Indonesia
0.28% NCB
Ireland
0.36% IPLMA
Israel
2.65% MARKIT / ADACI
Italy
6.66% MARKIT / JMMA
Japan
2.34% HSBC
Korea
2.54% See detail below
Mexico
1.02% NEVI
Netherlands
0.19% Business NZ
New Zealand
0.40% NIMA
Norway
1.16% HSBC
Poland
3.62% HSBC
Russia
1.07% SABB HSBC
Saudi Arabia
0.47% SIPMM
Singapore
0.83% BER - KAGISO
South Africa
2.03% MARKIT
Spain
0.57% SILF
Sweden
0.52% SVME / CREDIT SUISSE
Switzerland
1.30% HSBC
Taiwan
1.62% HSBC
Turkey
0.39% HSBC
UAE
3.34% MARKIT / CIPS
UK
22.58% See detail below
USA
0.46% HSBC
Vietnam
100.0%
World Manufacturing PMI (GDP at PPP)
MARKIT
Euro area
HSBC- Emerging Markets (EMI)
Emerging
JP Morgan
Global
More than one PMI survey
Country
RBC
IVEY
Canada
Canada average
CFLP (Chinese)
HSBC
China
China average
INEGI NSA
IIEEM original series
Mexico
HSBC
Mexico average
Selected regional Mfg. PMI (see below)
ISM Report On Business
USA
MARKIT
US average
US Average Regional Mfg. - as if it were PMI
CHICAGO B. BAROMETER
Dallas Manufacturing as if it were PMI
ISM-NY - NEW YORK CITY REPORT ON BUSINESS
Empire State Mfg - Current general conditions

Dec-10
46.3
57.7
52.4
58.9
54.2
58.4
63.0
57.2
60.7
43.1
55.0
54.0
56.7
52.2
59.1
54.7
48.3
53.9
50.9
57.5
53.1
55.2
56.3
53.5
61.3
50.7
52.2
51.5
60.2
60.6
54.7
56.4
53.0
58.3
58.6

2011
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
46.7 51.1 47.9 48.4 47.7 52.9 43.4 43.3 42.3 47.4 47.8 50.2
60.3 61.9 60.6 57.0 55.6 53.0 50.8 50.1 48.7 48.0 47.6 49.0
53.1 54.6 53.2 50.7 50.8 49.0 47.8 46.0 45.5 46.5 48.7 49.1
46.8 70.8 73.2 57.1 60.2 56.4 50.0 55.7 55.4 54.1 56.6 58.8
53.7 52.0 52.6 52.4 51.8 50.5 50.0 50.4 50.6 50.7 48.4 49.5
60.5 59.8 58.6 59.0 55.9 55.1 53.4 53.4 52.3 51.7 48.6 49.2
62.2 64.9 63.3 63.2 59.6 59.1 58.3 54.7 63.0 42.9 47.5 58.1
54.9 55.7 55.4 57.5 54.9 52.5 50.5 49.1 48.2 48.5 47.3 48.9
60.5 62.7 60.9 62.0 57.7 54.6 52.0 50.9 50.3 49.1 47.9 48.4
42.8 42.8 45.4 46.8 44.5 45.5 45.2 43.3 43.2 40.5 40.9 42.0
55.2 53.7 54.9 52.9 52.2 50.3 51.4 47.8 45.9 49.0 48.7 49.7
54.7 57.0 53.9 56.9 52.3 54.4 52.1 50.1 50.8 48.2 47.8 48.6
56.8 57.9 57.9 58.0 57.5 55.3 53.6 52.6 50.4 52.0 51.0 54.2
55.8
58.5
56.6
51.4
53.5
51.6
57.5
53.4
55.0
55.6
53.5
63.8
50.5
53.0
52.0
61.5
59.9
59.8
57.2
54.2
62.0
60.5

56.7
48.0
59.0
52.9
53.4
52.7
60.7
52.6
57.5
53.8
55.2
63.4
52.3
52.6
52.1
60.9
62.2
55.8
58.5
54.3
61.5
62.5

55.7
48.5
56.2
46.4
52.8
55.0
58.1
49.2
56.5
54.8
55.6
62.8
50.1
54.3
51.6
58.6
59.5
55.6
56.1
54.7
56.7
61.8

56.0
49.2
55.5
45.7
51.7
52.2
59.2
52.4
55.3
54.4
52.1
62.7
52.5
54.3
50.6
59.8
58.5
58.2
52.7
57.5
54.4
59.8

51.8
54.4
52.8
51.3
51.2
53.8
55.1
54.4
56.1
52.6
50.7
62.6
50.8
54.0
48.2
56.1
58.1
54.9
50.6
56.0
52.1
54.9

49.8
52.3
49.9
50.7
51.1
54.4
52.1
53.9
55.9
51.2
50.6
62.8
50.4
55.0
47.3
52.9
54.2
49.9
52.3
55.2
51.4
54.5

48.2
49.4
50.1
52.1
51.3
52.4
51.4
52.9
56.4
52.9
49.8
60.0
49.3
46.4
45.6
50.1
53.8
46.1
52.3
53.3
49.4
52.9

49.7
48.4
47.0
51.9
49.7
53.0
50.7
53.3
55.5
51.8
49.9
57.9
49.4
48.9
45.3
48.7
52.0
45.2
48.8
50.9
49.0
50.9

47.3
44.3
48.3
49.3
47.5
51.5
48.9
51.1
54.4
50.2
50.0
56.3
48.3
52.5
43.7
48.1
49.3
44.5
51.5
52.3
51.1
52.0

50.1
50.7
43.3
50.6
48.0
52.7
48.0
46.3
51.1
51.7
50.4
56.7
49.5
51.2
43.9
49.8
47.7
43.7
53.3
53.4
47.8
50.7

48.5
43.8
44.0
49.1
47.1
52.6
46.0
46.1
49.5
49.5
52.6
58.1
48.7
51.8
43.8
47.6
45.6
43.9
52.3
52.5
47.7
52.8

48.6
42.7
44.3
50.2
46.4
51.3
46.2
52.1
47.3
48.8
51.6
57.7
49.5
50.3
43.7
48.9
49.1
47.1
52.0
51.7
49.7
54.2

55.5 56.1 57.3 56.4 55.2 53.6 52.6 51.2 50.4 50.2 49.9 49.8 50.9
57.1 57.3 59.0 57.5 58.0 54.6 52.0 50.4 49.0 48.5 47.1 46.4 46.9
55.7
55.0
54.2
52.0
52.4
55.6 57.2 57.4 55.7 55.0 53.0 52.3 50.7 50.2 49.8 49.9 49.6 50.8
Dec-10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
56.3 54.8 52.8 53.1 54.9 55.0 53.7 53.3 54.0
58.9 46.8 70.8 73.2 57.8 65.5 59.9 46.8 56.4 55.7 54.4 59.9 63.5
58.9 46.8 70.8 73.2 57.1 60.2 56.4 50.0 55.7 55.4 54.1 56.6 58.8
53.9 52.9 52.2 53.4 52.9 52.0 50.9 50.7 50.9 51.2 50.4 49.0 50.3
54.4 54.5 51.7 51.8 51.8 51.6 50.1 49.3 49.9 49.9 51.0 47.7 48.7
54.2 53.7 52.0 52.6 52.4 51.8 50.5 50.0 50.4 50.6 50.7 48.4 49.5
50.7 52.3 52.6 55.8 51.2 53.8 55.2 54.3 54.3 52.6 53.6 51.8 50.8
51.0 50.9 52.7 54.2 53.3 53.7 53.5 50.6 51.6 50.3 51.7 53.5 51.8
50.9
58.7
58.5

51.6
60.3
60.8

52.7
63.6
61.4

55.0
62.4
61.2

52.2
59.3
60.4

53.8
56.3
53.5

54.4
53.7
55.3

52.4
55.0
50.9

53.0
51.3
50.6

51.5
52.5
51.6

52.7
50.6
50.8

52.6
52.8
52.7

51.3
54.5
53.9

58.6
58.7
66.8
54.3

60.5
60.3
68.8
50.5
66.7
55.1

62.5
63.6
71.2
53.9
72.8
56.6

61.8
62.4
70.6
54.7
67.2
57.2

59.8
59.3
67.6
52.6
57.9
59.0

54.9
56.3
56.6
52.1
61.3
55.2

54.5
53.7
61.1
51.7
54.1
48.0

52.9
55.0
58.8
53.9
58.9
48.4

50.9
51.3
58.1
49.7
49.6
47.6

52.0
52.5
61.3
51.0
50.1
47.6

50.7
50.6
59.3
51.1
45.7
46.3

52.8
52.8
62.5
47.9
49.9
50.9

54.2
54.5
62.2
49.2
51.7
54.8

55.0

During 2012, for 6 consecutive months, global manufacturing activity had a clear expectation of contraction, with an
emerging trend reversal in December 2012.
Manufacturing PMI
Reference
Country
1.39%
Australian Industry Group
Australia
0.52%
Bank Austria
Austria
3.41%
HSBC
Brazil
2.09%
See detail below
Canada
17.86%
See detail below
China
0.41%
HSBC
Czech Rep.
0.30%
DILF
Denmark
3.25%
MARKIT
France
4.61%
MARKIT / BME
Germany
0.41%
MARKIT
Greece
0.52%
HSBC - composite index
Hong Kong
0.28%
MLBKT
Hungary
6.80%
HSBC
India
1.75%
HSBC
Indonesia
0.28%
NCB
Ireland
0.36%
IPLMA
Israel
2.65%
MARKIT / ADACI
Italy
6.66%
MARKIT / JMMA
Japan
2.34%
HSBC
Korea
2.54%
See detail below
Mexico
1.02%
NEVI
Netherlands
0.19%
Business NZ
New Zealand
0.40%
NIMA
Norway
1.16%
HSBC
Poland
3.62%
HSBC
Russia
1.07%
SABB HSBC
Saudi Arabia
0.47%
SIPMM
Singapore
0.83%
BER - KAGISO
South Africa
2.03%
MARKIT
Spain
0.57%
SILF
Sweden
0.52%
SVME / CREDIT SUISSE
Switzerland
1.30%
HSBC
Taiwan
1.62%
HSBC
Turkey
0.39%
HSBC
UAE
3.34%
MARKIT / CIPS
UK
22.58%
See detail below
USA
0.46%
HSBC
Vietnam
100.0%
World Manufacturing PMI (see note)
MARKIT
Euro area
HSBC- Emerging Markets (EMI)
Emerging
JP Morgan
Global
More than one PMI survey
Country
RBC
IVEY
Canada
Canada average
CFLP (Chinese)
HSBC
China
China average
INEGI NSA
IIEEM original series
Mexico
HSBC
Mexico average
Selected regional Mfg. PMI (see below)
ISM Report On Business
USA
MARKIT
US average
US Average Regional Mfg. - as if it were PMI
CHICAGO B. BAROMETER
Dallas Manufacturing as if it were PMI
Richmond Mfg. Activity as if it were PMI
ISM-NY - NEW YORK CITY REPORT ON BUSINESS
Empire State Mfg - Current general conditions
%

2012
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Chg Direction
51.6 51.3 49.5 43.9 42.4 47.2 40.3 45.3 44.1 45.2 44.3 44.3
0.0 Contracting
51.8 52.0 51.5 51.2 50.2 50.1 47.4 46.7 45.1 44.8 49.3 48.1 -1.2 Contracting
50.6 51.4 51.1 49.3 49.3 48.5 48.7 49.3 49.8 50.2 52.2 51.1 -1.1 Expanding
57.4 59.2 58.0 53.0 57.6 51.9 58.0 57.8 56.4 54.9 49.0 51.6
2.7 Expanding
49.7 50.3 50.7 51.3 49.4 49.2 49.7 48.4 48.9 49.9 50.6 51.1
0.5 Expanding
48.8 50.5 52.1 49.7 47.6 49.4 49.5 48.7 48.0 47.2 48.2 46.0 -2.2 Contracting
53.2 54.8 51.2 63.4 52.6 52.4 46.9 51.0 49.9 55.9 56.6 57.0
0.4 Expanding
48.5 50.0 46.7 46.9 44.7 45.2 43.4 46.0 42.7 43.7 44.5 44.6
0.1 Contracting
51.0 50.2 48.4 46.2 45.2 45.0 43.0 44.7 47.4 46.0 46.8 46.0 -0.8 Contracting
41.0 37.7 41.3 40.7 43.1 40.1 41.9 42.1 42.2 41.0 41.8 41.4 -0.4 Contracting
51.9 52.8 52.0 50.3 49.4 49.8 50.3 50.5 49.6 50.5 52.2 51.7 -0.5 Expanding
49.8 51.2 57.7 46.9 52.3 52.8 51.9 49.6 52.4 49.9 52.1 48.9 -3.2 Contracting
57.5 56.6 54.7 54.9 54.8 55.0 52.9 52.8 52.8 52.9 53.7 54.7
1.0 Expanding
50.8 50.5 48.1 50.2 51.4 51.6 50.5 51.9 51.5 50.7 -0.8 Expanding
48.3 49.7 51.5 50.1 51.2 53.1 53.9 50.9 51.8 52.1 52.4 51.4 -1.0 Expanding
36.3 44.5 46.3 53.2 51.0 47.8 41.9 35.2 38.0 37.6 43.7 44.1
0.4 Contracting
46.8 47.8 47.9 43.8 44.8 44.6 44.3 43.6 45.7 45.5 45.1 46.7
1.6 Contracting
50.7 50.5 51.1 50.7 50.7 49.9 47.9 47.7 48.0 46.9 46.5 45.0 -1.5 Contracting
49.2 50.7 52.0 51.9 51.0 49.4 47.2 47.5 45.7 47.4 48.2 50.1
1.9 Stable
51.8 53.2 53.6 53.7 54.4 55.1 53.9 54.2 52.7 54.0 54.0 54.0 -0.1 Expanding
49.0 50.3 49.6 49.0 47.6 48.9 48.9 49.7 50.7 48.9 48.2 49.6
1.4 Contracting
51.0 57.6 53.9 47.6 55.9 50.0 49.5 47.5 48.5 50.3 48.8 50.1
1.3 Stable
54.7 56.2 58.8 52.7 53.8 46.3 48.8 48.8 49.2 49.0 50.2 50.0 -0.2 Stable
52.2 50.0 50.1 49.2 48.9 48.0 49.7 48.3 47.0 47.3 48.2 48.5
0.3 Contracting
50.8 50.7 50.8 52.9 53.2 51.0 52.0 51.0 52.8 52.9 52.3 50.0 -2.3 Stable
60.0 59.6 58.7 60.4 60.4 59.7 58.1 58.3 60.3 59.8 57.0 58.9
1.9 Expanding
48.7 50.4 50.2 49.7 50.4 50.4 49.8 49.1 48.7 48.3 48.8 48.6 -0.2 Contracting
52.7 55.4 53.4 52.6 52.7 48.8 51.1 50.8 48.3 47.1 49.5 47.4 -2.1 Contracting
45.1 45.0 44.5 43.5 42.0 41.1 42.3 44.0 44.5 43.5 45.3 44.6 -0.7 Contracting
51.4 50.3 50.2 50.2 49.0 48.4 50.6 45.1 44.7 43.1 43.2 44.6
1.4 Contracting
47.3 49.0 51.1 46.9 45.4 48.1 48.6 46.7 43.6 46.1 48.5 49.5
1.0 Contracting
48.9 52.7 54.1 51.2 50.5 49.2 47.5 46.1 45.6 47.8 47.4 50.6
3.2 Expanding
51.7 49.6 49.6 52.3 50.2 51.4 49.4 50.0 52.2 52.5 51.6 53.1
1.5 Expanding
52.4 52.0 52.3 53.5 53.8 53.2 53.4 53.3 53.8 53.8 53.7 55.6
1.9 Expanding
52.1 51.5 51.9 50.2 45.9 48.4 45.2 49.6 48.1 47.3 49.1 51.4
2.3 Expanding
55.5 55.8 56.3 55.4 53.4 51.2 50.8 50.4 51.0 50.1 51.1 51.8
0.7 Expanding
50.0 49.5 48.3 46.6 43.6 47.9 49.2 48.7 50.5 49.3 -1.2 Contracting
52.0 52.4 52.3 51.6 50.5 49.8 49.2 49.2 49.4 49.4 49.9 50.2
0.3 Expanding
48.8 49.0 47.7 45.9 45.1 45.1 44.0 45.1 46.1 45.4 46.2 46.1 -0.1 Contracting
53.6
53.2
52.2
52.9
0.7 Expanding
51.3 51.2 51.1 51.4 50.6 49.1 48.4 48.1 48.8 48.8 49.6 50.2
0.6 Expanding
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Chg Direction
50.6 51.8 52.4 53.3 54.7 54.8 53.1 53.0 52.4 51.4 50.4 50.4
0.0 Expanding
64.1 66.5 63.5 52.7 60.5 49.0 62.8 62.5 60.4 58.3 47.5 52.8
5.3 Expanding
57.4 59.2 58.0 53.0 57.6 51.9 58.0 57.8 56.4 54.9 49.0 51.6
2.7 Expanding
50.5 51.0 53.1 53.3 50.4 50.2 50.1 49.2 49.8 50.2 50.6 50.6
0.0 Expanding
48.8 49.6 48.3 49.3 48.4 48.2 49.3 47.6 47.9 49.5 50.5 51.5
1.0 Expanding
49.7 50.3 50.7 51.3 49.4 49.2 49.7 48.4 48.9 49.9 50.6 51.1
0.5 Expanding
52.0 52.7 54.0 52.0 53.6 53.8 54.0 54.5 53.8 54.6 53.6 52.0 -1.6 Expanding
51.7 53.7 52.8 52.7 54.3 55.5 52.4 53.0 49.9 52.0 52.8 52.8 -0.1 Expanding
53.9 56.3 55.2 55.9 55.2 55.1 54.4 55.5 55.6 57.1
1.5 Expanding
51.8 53.2 53.6 53.7 54.4 55.1 53.9 54.2 52.7 54.0 54.0 54.0 -0.1 Expanding
56.8 59.2 59.0 55.3 52.6 51.5 51.1 50.0 50.4 47.6 50.9 50.7 -0.2 Expanding
54.1 52.4 53.4 54.8 53.5 49.7 49.8 49.6 51.5 51.7 49.5 50.7
1.2 Expanding
56.5 56.0 54.0 52.5 51.4 51.5 51.1 51.0 52.8 54.0
1.2 Expanding
55.5 55.8 56.3 55.4 53.4 51.2 50.8 50.4 51.0 50.1 51.1 51.8
0.7 Expanding
56.8 59.2 59.0 55.3 52.6 51.5 51.1 50.0 50.4 47.6 50.9 50.7 -0.2 Expanding
60.2 64.0 62.2 56.2 52.7 52.9 53.7 53.0 49.7 49.9 50.4 51.6
1.2 Expanding
53.6 54.0 53.1 51.0 51.6 53.5 51.8 51.8 51.0 48.8 49.3 48.9 -0.4 Contracting
54.3 55.9 53.5 54.8 51.7 49.6 41.3 45.5 52.2 46.6 54.4 52.6 -1.8 Expanding
60.1 63.1 67.4 61.2 49.9 49.7 55.2 51.4 52.9 45.9 52.5 54.3
1.8 Expanding
56.1 59.2 59.0 53.2 57.3 52.1 53.5 48.1 46.2 46.6 47.8 46.4 -1.5 Contracting

Rate of Change
Unchange
Faster
Slower
from contracting
Faster
Faster
Faster
Unchange
Faster
Faster
Slower
from expanding
Faster
Slower
Slower
Slower
Slower
Faster
from contracting
Unchange
Slower
from contracting
Slower
Faster
Faster
Faster
Faster
Slower
Slower
from contracting
Faster
Faster
from contracting
Faster
from expanding
from contracting
Unchange
Faster
from contracting
Rate of Change
Unchange
from contracting
from contracting
Unchange
Faster
Faster
Slower
Unchange
Faster
Unchange
Slower
from contracting
Faster
Faster
Slower
Faster
Faster
Slower
Faster
Faster

For managers expectations for 2013 remain in expansive groundsit would be appropriate as far as possible, remain
expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.