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Assignment 3

By: Ahmed Farouk Abdel Rahman El-Moslemany


Links of tables used: Egypt http://rapidlibrary.com/files/9-egypt-s-balance-of-payments-xls_ulzrrzy9nzi89on.html http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search? q=cache:http://www.cbe.org.eg/sdds_excel/Balance_of_Payments_Q2_2010.htm Brazil http://www.bcb.gov.br/?BALANCESPECIAL http://www.bcb.gov.br/?FOREIGNSECTOR

India http://indiabudget.nic.in/es2011-12/echap-06.pdf http://www.indiaonestop.com/economy/balanceofpayments/economy-macro-balance%20of %20payments.htm

I- The comment on the BoP of Egypt:


The balance of payments was recording surplus in the period between years 19911997 that was approximatly $4bn in the earlier 3 years then it almost halfed in the 4th year and continued in reduction in the rest of this period, then it recorded deficits till 2002 which was recording increasing in deficit , the peak was $3bn in year 2000 the deficit was in the trend of reduction after that, then it recorded surplus till 2008 except in year 2004 which had a small deficit equals $-158.3mn . Then there was surplus till 2008 which was in high degrees between levels of $3.3 to5.4bn. After that the there was deficit of $3.4bn in the year 2009 as a reaction of the global financial crisis, but the year after the deficit is no longer has a remarkable influence as there was a surpuls of $3.4bn. In the year 2011 till now it recorded high deficits as a cause of the 25th of January revolution it was $9.8bn in 2011 and $11.3bn in 2012.

II- Comparison between the BoP of Egypt and each of BoPs of Brazil and India in the period between 2007 to 2012:
aFor BoP of Egypt: 1- The global financial crisis of year 2008 had a remarkable influence by causing a deficit equals -68% of the surplus of the year before then there was a surplus in the year after of 65% of the surplus of the year before the crisis. 2- After the surplus recorded after the crisis in year 2010, the occasion of the 25th of January revolution caused deficits in 2011 and 2012.

b-

For BoP of Brazil:

1- Bop of Brazil was almost similar to the Bop of Egypt till year 2005 but in year 2006 it recorded surplus equals 7 times of that of year 2005, and in year 2007 it recorded surplus equals 2.9 times of that of year 2006. 2- The global financial crisis of year 2008 had a remarkable influence by causing a reduction of the surplus with respect to of the year before equals 96% then there was a surplus in the year after of 60% of the surplus of the year before the crisis . c2006. 2The global financial crisis of year 2008 had a remarkable influence by For BoP of India:

1- Bop of India recorded in year 2007 surplus equals 2.6 times of that of year

causing a deficit equals to -23% of the surplus of the year before, then there was a surplus in the year after of 15% of the surplus of the year before the crisis .

III- Deep analysis on the current account:


Remark: Values of the balances are in the tables in the links mentioned above.

1-

The Trade Balance:

a- Always recording deficit. Between years 2000-2003 the trend was toward reduction in the deficit level. Since 2004 till now the trend is toward the increase in deficit. b- Always there an increase in the exports and imports by the time except the reduction in both which occurred in years 2009 and 2010 after the crisis.

2-

The Services:

a- There was a trend in the increasing of the services level till the year 2008, but since 2009 till now the trend of decreasing in this level is noticed, but it always records surplus. b- The trend of increasing in the receipts is noticed till 2008, but since 2009 till now the trend in the decreasing is noticed. c- Always the trend of increasing in the payments is noticed except in the year 2009. d- Always there an increase in the Suez Canal receipts level by the time except the reduction occurred in years 2009 and 2010 after the crisis.

3-

The Transfer:

It always records surplus, and it increases by the time. There no influence of the crisis is noticed on the transfer.