Past Work

• Design and Simulation of Three Link Robot….(at Indian Space

Research Satellite Centre, Bangalore, India)

• Load flow study of a Nuclear Power Plant….(at Rajasthan Atomic

Power Station, Kota, Rajasthan, India).

• To Design and study Linear Induction Motor (LIM) for the

Magnetic Levitated Vehicle….B.Tech Thesis work… (University Gold
Medal for securing First Class First Position in the University).
Desired O/P Desired O/P
G-1 G
• Temperature Control System using ANN.

• Short Term Load Forecasting Using Artificial Neural

Network…M.Tech Thesis work.

• Short Term Load Forecasting Using Fuzzy Neural

Network….(follow up of the earlier work).
 SHORT TERM LOAD
FORECASTING USING ANN
 What’s Load Forecasting?

• Tell the Future!

• Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is for
hour to hour forecasting and important to
daily maintaining of power plant
• A STLF forecaster calculates the
estimated load for each hours of the day,
the daily peak load, or the daily or weekly
energy generation.
 Taxonomy of Load Forecasting

• Spatial forecasting : forecasting future

load distribution in a special region, such
as a state, a region, or the whole country.

• Temporal forecasting is dealing with

forecasting load for a specific supplier or
collection of consumers in future hours,
days, months, or even years.
 Taxonomy of Load
Forecasting (Cont)
• Temporal forecasting:

Long-term load forecasting (LTLF): mainly for

system planning. Typically covers a period of 10 to
20 years.

Medium-term load forecasting (MTLF): mainly for

the scheduling of fuel supplies and maintenance.
Usually covers a few weeks.

Short-term load forecasting (STLF): for the day-

today operation and scheduling of the power
system.
WHY Short-term load forecasting
• An central problem in the operation and planning of
electrical power generation.

• To minimize the operating cost, electric supplier will use

forecasted load to control the number of running
generator unit.

• STLF is important to supplier because they can

use the forecasted load to control the number of
generators in operation

shut up some unit when forecasted load is low

start up of new unit when forecasted load is high.

(HOW) Forecasting Methods
• Expert Judgments

• Linear Models
• Linear Regression
• Time Series Approach

• Nonlinear Models
• Artificial Neural Networks
• Nonlinear Regression
• Fuzzy Approach
• Bayesian Network Approach
Weekend Week Days

Source-RTE France
 Daily Consumption

Second Peak

First Peak

Afternoon Off Peak

Night Off Peak

Mainly Industrial Load Residential + Commercial Load

Source-RTE France
 Determining factors
• Calendar
Seasonal variation
Daily variation
Weekly Cycle
Holidays
• Economical or environmental
• Weather
Temperature
Cloud cover or sunshine
Humidity
• Unforeseeable random event

L(n) = f( past(L), Calendar, Weather,Other)

 Why…. Neural Network?
• Absence of the Mathematical Model of Load

• The Load is function of a lot of factors

L(n) = f (past(L), Calendar, Weather, Other)

• f is complex and unknown, and relation is non linear.

• Traditional computationally economic approaches, such as

regression and interpolation, may not give sufficient
accurate result. Conversely, complex algorithmic methods
with heavy computational burden can converge slowly and
may diverge in certain cases, thus, not suitable for real time
applications.

• Use Black Box….i.e. Neural network to approximate f !

 Major Impediments in Building ANN
• Limited ability to extrapolate modelled relationship
beyond the training data domain.
• Results depend on the neural network design
e.g. Number of the layers, Size of the hidden layer,
Number of the inputs in the input layer etc. We do not
have any clear information in this regard.
• It is a Black Box…in the sense that the internal layers
of the neural network are always opaque to the user,
the mapping rules are thus difficult to understand.
Neural Network Architecture

Hidden layer
f (∑ wk xk )

Forecasted Load

Output layer

1
f (x) =
1 − e−x
f ′ ( x ) = f ( x ) (1 − f ( x ) )
Input layer
STLF Using ANN (1st Approach)
 LOAD IN MEGAWATT
4
x 10 Actual Load Hour 23/12/2005 20/01/2006
8 00:00 70500 64200
01:00 67300 60800
02:00 68900 61700
03:00 66500 59000
7.5
04:00 64400 57100
05:00 64100 57000
06:00 66900 60300

7 07:00 71000 67400

08:00 76100 73000
MW

09:00 77900 73000

10:00 79000 72700
6.5 11:00 78300 72100
12:00 78200 72100
13:00 78900 71900
14:00 76400 70400
6
data1 15:00 73800 68200

data2 16:00 71700 66700

17:00 72000 66300

5.5 18:00 76000 71000

0 5 10 15 20 25
19:00 77200 73700
Hour of the day
20:00 74900 70500
21:00 72000 67100
22:00 69200 63400
Source: RTE France 23:00 72000 66400
 Increment in MWatt
Hour 23/12/2005 20/01/2006
00:00 -3200 -3400
Com paris on of the load inc rem ent 01:00 1600 900
8000
02:00 -2400 -2700
data1
03:00 -2100 -1900
data2
04:00 -300 -100
6000
05:00 2800 3300
06:00 4100 7100
4000 07:00 5100 5600
Increment in Load

08:00 1800 0
09:00 1100 -300
2000
10:00 -700 -600
11:00 -100 0
12:00 700 -200
0
13:00 -2500 -1500
14:00 -2600 -2200

-2000 15:00 -2100 -1500

16:00 300 -400
17:00 4000 4700
-4000 18:00 1200 2700
0 5 10 15 20 25
Hour of the Day 19:00 -2300 -3200
20:00 -2900 -3400
21:00 -2800 -3700
22:00 2800 3000
Source: RTE France 23:00 -2000 -2411
STLF Using ANN (Proposed Approach)
Results (Using both Approaches)
 Conclusion
• The results obtained using the proposed approach are
closer to the actual load, thus, strengthening the idea of
proposed approach.

• It was observed that the algorithm of the second

approach was more robust as compared to the first
approach.

• It is less sensitive to the requirement of having training

data representative of the entire spectrum of possible
load and weather conditions.
STLF Using Fuzzy Neural Network

The input I11, I12 has five membership functions each. I11
represents the load increment at the kth hour and I12
represents the forecasted load increment at the same
hour. The forecasted load increment was obtained using
the traditional ANN.
Results
“The best way to predict
the future is to invent it”

THANKS