1

EX ST 411/611 Homework 3 Let X be a binomial random variable with n = 4 and p = 0.4. Find the following probabilities by hand (3 points each): a. P(X = 2)

1.

b.

P(X 1)

c.

P(X > 2)

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2.

One type of study devised to test clairvoyant ability of an individual is to see how many cards a person can correctly identify (match) from a Zener deck of cards. The deck of cards consists of five different designs of Zener cards: a hollow circle, a Greek cross, three vertical wavy lines, a hollow square, and a hollow five-pointed star. An equal number of each type of card design is in the deck.

1Figure 1: Card designs in a Zener deck. One way the study can be conducted is to use an open deck, which means the card is replaced in the deck after each turn and the cards are reshuffled. For this problem, assume an open deck is used. (If you would like to test your clairvoyant ability go to the web site http://www.psychicscience.org/esp3.aspx ) Suppose a test subject is presented with ten cards and let X be the number of cards the person correctly identifies (matches). a. Determine if X is a binomial random variable by answering the following questions: 1) How many trials are conducted in this study? (1 point)

2)

Are the trials independent? (1 point)

3)

Does each trial result in only one of two possible outcomes? List the outcomes for each trial. (1 point)

4)

Which outcome would you consider a "success" and what is the probability of a success for each trial? (1 point)

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b.

If someone does not have clairvoyant ability, what is the probability the person would make three or more matches? Use R to answer the question. (6 point)

c.

At least how many cards should a person match if we want the probability of incorrectly identifying the person as a clairvoyant to be no greater than 0.05? Use R to answer the question. (6 points)

d.

If someone has clairvoyant ability and can match the cards 70% of the time, what is the probability the person would make four or fewer matches? Use R to answer the question. (6 point)

e.

Determine the mean and standard deviation for the random variable X. (4 points)

f.

The number of cards, in your answer to part c, is how many standard deviations away from the mean? (2 points)

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3.

The length of time between breakdowns of manufacturing equipment is a continuous random variable that is sometimes described by the exponential distribution with the parameter . The parameter is the rate of the occurrence of an event. For example, the rate of breakdowns for manufacturing equipment might be 2 times per month. In this case, = 2. The probability density function for exponential distribution is given by

f (x ) = e
a.

fo r x 0

Determine the cumulative distribution function for the exponential distribution. (4 points)

b.

Determine the mean and variance for the exponential distribution. (Hint: use integration by parts) (6 points)

c.

Let X be the number of days until a machine breaks down. The rate of breakdowns for the machine is 0.05 per day. 1) What is the probability the next breakdown will occur after 10 days? (4 points)

2) What is the probability the next breakdown will occur between 1 and 2 weeks? (4 points)

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4.

Let Z be a standard normal random variable. Do the following (3 points each): a. Find P(Z > -1.27)

b.

Find P(-1.01 < Z < 2.34)

c.

Find P(Z > 1.47)

d.

P(a < Z < 1.73) = 0.871270

Find a.

e.

P(Z > a) = 0.004940

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5.

It is important that medical pouches used for blood do not leak. Burst tests are often used to measure the pressure a medical pouch can withstand. Under normal operating conditions a pouch will not leak if it can withstand a pressure of 6 psi. Suppose the burst pressure for medical pouches is normally distributed with a mean of 7 psi and a standard deviation of 0.4 psi.

2Figure 2: Medical Pouches a. For a randomly selected medical pouch, what is the probability the pouch will leak? (10 points)

b.

What proportion of the medical pouches will have a burst pressure greater than 6.5 psi? (10 points)

c.

If the standard deviation does not change, what should be the mean bursting pressure so that only one in a thousand pouches will leak? (10 points)

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