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FutureCBC Food Security in 2040

Its 2040 FutureCBC is experiencing disruption to food supplies from centralised distribution centres in the UK. Vegetable, milk, fish and meat suppliers are struggling to cope with high haulage costs, high energy prices and unreliable supplies of petrol and diesel fuels. There is also undersupply of food products from abroad, and there are increasing issues with the quality of products that are available in the food economy .Climate change has impacted on supply chains of fruit and vegetables from Mediterranean regions and warmer seas have caused migration of fish stocks. Government have concluded that these trends represent a long term disruption in the food economy and have challenged regional and local government to deal with this under the well-being duty. A statutory food security plan is required involving partners. High food prices and supply problems are beginning to cause food poverty in some of the poorer communities in FutureCBC. Empty shelves are appearing in supermarkets which rely on just in time systems. There have been a growing number of civil disturbances in major towns and cities in Wales as basic food stuffs are snapped up by and increasingly worried public. There are some signs that the local economy is responding through increased business for local food and product supply chains. However costs and supply issues have also forced many food retailers out of business. The agricultural community in Wales is struggling to respond to demand for food products and finding difficultly in maintain businesses with uncertain supply and high price of energy. A long term decline in numbers of working farms, as young people from rural areas have migrated has also resulted in an agricultural skills shortage. There are some signs that more local supply chains are establishing themselves between local farmers and food retailers and public bodies in FutureCBC. While climate change has caused a longer growing season and the opportunity to grow a greater variety of crops and feed for livestock, water resources are declining and water conservation is needed as new crops are introduced to Wales.

The 2008 recession lasted far longer than anticipated and FutureCBC is struggling to to secure investment in both jobs and infrastructure. The failure of pension funds has resulted in a growing number of older people on the breadline. In addition, climate-induced migration from the developing world has increased rapidly and there is currently an urgent need for affordable accommodation. UK government policy requires FutureCBC to accommodate 6,000 additional migrants over the next 5 years, stretching local services significantly beyond their limit.
For FutureCBC these issues have hit service delivery hard. Food procurement is becoming increasingly difficult for school meals, meals on wheels and day centres. Health and social workers are reporting nutritional problems among school children and the elderly in some sections of the community. The obesity timebomb in Wales has also impacted on health and healthcare provision in FutureCBC where 30% of the population are clinically obese, of which

40% have developed diabetes. Local health services are struggling to cope with the financial burden of this demand. For service providers and organisations in FutureCBC this gradual decline in food security and subsequent impacts have come as a shock. A strategic and decisive response is required from the local authority and partners to ensure basic well-being of its citizens.

1. List the big questions which come out of this scenario for FutureCBC? What are the top five issues you have identified? Long term: Short term: 2. Lets assume for a moment that FutureCBC was prepared for this food security challenge what actions might have been implemented before 2040 to reduce the exposure of the FutureCBC to the risks described in this scenario? 3. Unfortunately, FutureCBCs Local Partnership has not been able to plan strategically or practically on food security until now . How can the partnership address this scenario? Think about the following change management issues for the partnership: a) getting a better understanding of impacts of the scenario (what sort of information might you need?) b) which business as usual activities are most vulnerable for the Partnership how can you change them to ensure they are fit for purpose? How might this change your approach to risk and emergency planning? c) what does success look like food security and how might you measure it? d) the role of the Partnership and the changing relationships with other organisations to tackle food security e) aligning organisational resources to deal with food security and building capacity in the partnership how might you approach this? f) What practical things can you do immediately to ease the situation? g) What long term measures and policies might you develop to ensure food security? h) How might this scenario change your organisations role within the Partnership? 4. What are the 5 key pieces of learning for your group from this exercise? 5. What immediate actions can be carried out by your organisation to increase preparedness for food security in the future?