FOREST COVER AND CARBON CHANGES IN COASTAL TEMPERATE RAINFOREST, CHILE

Patricio F.ROMEROa, Eduardo NEIRAa and Antonio LARAa

a

GIS and Remote Sensing laboratory, Faculty of Forestry Sciences, Universidad Austral de Chile, PO Box 567, Valdivia, Chile. Phone.: +56 63 293005; Fax: + 56 63 293418. E-mail: patricioromero@uach.cl

ABSTRACT
The temperate rainforests of Chile are classified a biological hotspot as a result of their high species diversity and high endemism. However, they are being rapidly destroyed, with significant negative impacts on biodiversity. Data from Landsat satellite imagery from 1986 (TM), 2002 (ETM+) were used to ascertain the forest cover between the Calle-calle and Hueyelhue rivers (an area of approximately 300,000 hectares) in Chile's Tenth Region, to document the changes observed in this area, and to predict the forest cover using the Forest Restoration Carbon Analysis (FRCA, Gonzlez et al., 2006) method. Comparative analysis indicates that over the period from 1986 to 2002, 26,385 hectares of the original forest area was lost, however 21,546 hectares were naturally reforested. According to a projection based on this comparative analysis, 25,225 hectares of the native forest present in 2002 would be lost by 2018, and 19,410 hectares would be naturally reforested with native forest cover. The carbon baseline analysis carried out for the Valdivian Coastal Reserve (VCR) indicates that 1.5 million tons (with a range of 1.1 to 2.2 million tons) of carbon would be emitted during a 43-year period (from 2007 to 2050) and over the same period of time, 261 thousand tons (with a range of 231 to 290 thousand tons) of carbon would be removed whitout conservation and restoration project. With the implementation of a restoration project in the VCR 1.42 million tons (threshold limit) of carbon could be removed from the atmosphere during the same 43year period. Keywords: Forest restoration carbon analysis, carbon baseline, landsat

1 INTRODUCTION
This work describes the geoanalytical activities carried out by the GIS and Remote Sensing laboratory Universidad Austral de Chile. These activities are a component of the Forest Cover and Carbon Changes in Coastal Temperate Rainforest, Chile project developed by The Nature Conservancy (TNC). The general objectives of these activities were: 1) to quantify the forest cover of the coastal temperate rainforest between the Calle-calle and Hueyelhue rivers in Chile's Tenth Region, 2) to document the changes observed in this area between 1986 and 2002, 3) to predict the forest cover in the study area using the Forest Restoration Carbon Analysis (FRCA, Gonzlez et al., 2006) method, 4) to determine the carbon baseline of the Valdivian Coastal Reserve, and 5) to estimate the future levels of carbon emission and removal in this reserve, with and without the implementation of a restoration project.

2 MATERIAL AND METHODS

2.1 STUDY AREA The study area covers aproximately 300,000 ha of land located in the Coastal Range of the Tenth Region in south Chile, between 0 and 1,000 meters over sea level (Figure 1). The area is characterized by a rainy temperate climate with a maximum temperature in January (16.8C) and minimum in July (5.8C) (Di Castri and Hajek, 1976). The mean rainfall in the region is between 2,150 (lowlands) and 3,150 mm (highlands) (Huber and Iroum, 2001). The natural forest is dominated by the Siempreverde forest type composed only of perennieal species, followed by Alerce, Coihue de Chilo and Coihue de Magallanes forest types (Conaf et al., 1999).

sites was done considering representation of all digital categories of radiance according to the numeric values (spectral signature) and colour composites (Echeverra et., al 2006 and Chuvieco, 1996). Signature separability was assessed by the Transformed Divergence which is used to analyse the quality of training sites and class signatures before performing the classification. 2.5 FOREST COVER CHANGES BETWEEN 1986 AND 2002 Maps were analysed using ARC VIEW (version 3.3; ESRI (1999)) and its extension Arc View Spatial Analyst 2.0 for Windows to quantify land cover change. Four categories were obtained corresponding to: native forest and non forest area in both images, deforested areas and reforested areas. 2.6 PROBABILITY OF DEFORESTATION AND REFORESTATION FOR EACH PIXEL TO 2018 Using spatial information of coverage for a set of factors described in 2.7 the central, high, and low probabilities of loss of native forest (deforestation) were calculated for each of the pixels of forest in 2002 (Gonzlez et al., 2006) by weighting the principal components. In the same way, the three probabilities of forest gain (reforestation) were determined for each of the nonforest pixels. 2.7 PROJECTION OF NATIVE FOREST COVER IN 2018 Starting with the functions of probability of deforestation and reforestation obtained from the precedents observed in the period from 1986 to 2002, the areas that will be deforested and that will reforest by 2018, under the three scenarios of probability, were analytically and spatially determined. The resulting net area, of native forest gained or lost overall, is equivalent to the sum of the probabilities of deforestation of each of the pixels categorized as native forest in 2002 and the probabilities of reforestation of the pixels classified as non forest in 2002. 2.8 FACTORS WEIGHTS USING PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS (PCA) Forest Restoration Carbon Analysis (FRCA), uses PCA and a multivariate statistical test to calculate the weights of the different factors that explain the deforestation and reforestation processes (Gonzlez et al., 2006). The following factors were considered: Distance to non forest in 1986 (used for deforestation), distance to forest in 1986 (used for reforestation), size of the property, distance to road,

Figure 1. Location of study area in the coastal range.

2.2 PRELIMINARY DATA PROCESSING To analyse changes in forest area, a set of two Landsat scenes (path 233 row 88) were acquired for the years 1986 (TM), and 2002 (ETM+). Geometrical corrections were performed using control points from a digital 1:50,000 hydrography and roadway map (Conaf et al., 1999) with a second-order polynomial algorithm. Removal of atmospheric effects and variations in solar irradiance were achieved using an algorithm based on the Chavez reflectivity model (Chavez 1996). Digital numbers were then transformed to reflectivity values. Effects on shaded slopes were accounted for by performing topographic corrections using a C model (Teillet et al., 1982), Most of the processing work was performed using ERDAS 8.7 software package (ERDAS, 2005). 2.3 LAND COVER CATEGORIES Classification categories were defined following The Catastro. This is a GIS-based data set of thematic maps derived from aerial photographs and satellite imagery between 1994 and 1997 (Conaf et al., 1999). We distinguished the following basic categories of land cover from each image: oldgrowth forest, secondary forest, exotic-species plantation, shrubland, grasslands, beaches, urban areas, bare ground, and not classified (clouds, shadows cloud, and water bodies). 2.4 IMAGE CLASSIFICATION Classification of the two Landsat scenes was achieved using the a supervised classification procedure as implemented in Erdas 8.7. The statistical decision criterion of Maximum Likelihood was used in the supervised classification to assist in the classification of overlapping signatures, in which pixels were assigned to the class of highest probability. The selection of training

distance to watercourse, distance to urban center (city or village), slope, altitude and aspect. Once the factors were determined, the following model was used: (1) Where: i = Number of principal components j = Number of factors m = Principal components n = Factors explaining the loss of native forest q = Number of explanatory principal components L = Eigenvalue loading V = Fraction of the variance explained W = Weight of each factor in explaining the observed loss of native forest (range of 0-1) FRCA uses a bivariate statistical adjustment of the observations of forest change to calculate future probabilities of reforestation and deforestation for each pixel in a Landsat image (Gonzlez et al.,2006), and to project future baseline removals and emissions of carbon in forests. 2.9 BIOMASS AND CARBON STOCK BY FOREST TYPE AND DEVELOPMENT OF BIOMASS GROWTH CURVE Information generated by Gayoso and Schlegel (2003) and the Instituto Forestal (INFOR unpublished) was used in this chapter to estimate the aboveground biomass that could be affected by deforestation processes in the predicted scenarios. Gayoso and Schlegel (2003) estimated the aboveground biomass of different species and forest types, delivering functions specific to volume, biomass, and carbon. INFOR's information was developed from a network of forest inventory plots in the study area. The values obtained by this inventory were extrapolated to areas with characteristic environments, and of similar vegetation, using a compound model, which yielded a regional map of biomass. According to this information, the aboveground biomass inside the study area, referred to as the "aboveground carbon" (tree trunks and branches), would range from 67 to 217 tons per hectare. It was also necessary to account for the biomass of the forests in earlier stages of development (secondary forest). These studies focused on growth of native pioneer species that occur with high frequency in the study area and that have characteristics favorable for a restoration project.

Biomass was calculated using the functions proposed by Gayoso and Schlegel (2003) for the selected species. 2.10 PROJECTION OF BASELINE CARBON EMISSIONS AND REMOVAL IN THE VALDIVIAN COASTAL RESERVE (VCR) FROM 2007 TO 2050 The Valdivian Coastal Reserve (VCR) is located in the northwestern end of the study area. It encompasses 59,700 hectares, representing around 13% of the area required for the protection of the coastal Valdivian temperate rainforest ecosystem (Conama, 2003). However, the baseline analyses considered an area of 61,729.5 hectares, including adjacent coastal communities (Figure 2).

VCR

Figure 2. Location of the baseline study area.

A 43-year period was chosen to develop the carbon baseline of the VCR, in which crown closure and occupation of the forest takes place. The calculation of aboveground carbon within the area of analysis in the years 2007 and 2050 was based on the information generated by Gayoso and Schlegel (2003) that differentiates the forests different developmental stages (old-growth and secondary) and the different forest types.

3 RESULTS
3.1 DEFORESTATION AND REFORESTATION ANALYSIS Comparative analysis indicates that over the period from 1986 to 2002, 26,385 hectares of the original forest area was lost, equivalent to a rate of 0.76% year-1, however 21,546 hectares were naturally reforested. Although the net loss of 5,301 hectares of forest during the study period may not seem to be important, the location and the type of forest that was lost has a great impact on the overall condition of temperate forests because they were forests of high biodiversity (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Deforestation and reforestation of native forest from 1986 to 2002.

3.2 WEIGHTING THE FACTORS EXPLAINING DEFORESTATION AND REFORESTATION The main factors that explain the deforestation process are the size of the property, its distance from a nonforested area, and its distance from populated centers. While the main factors that explain the reforestation process are distance from populated centers, size of the property, and elevation. 3.3 PROBABILITIES OF DEFORESTATION AND REFORESTATION TO 2018 The maps of the probability of deforestation and reforestation, obtained from the weighting of the principal components analysis, with each of the factors that influence the process in question, are shown in Figures 4A and 4B. The projection that was carried out for the year 2018 considers a 16year period starting from 2002, a period that is equivalent to that of the previous analysis. A central threshold of deforestation probability of 0.156 was determined (minimum. 0.139, maximum. 0.174), which represents a deforested area of 25,225 hectares. The analysis of reforestation, on the other hand, yielded a central threshold of 0.405 (minimum. 0.369, maximum. 0.441), with which the reforested area in the year 2018 would be of 19,410 hectares.

Figure 4. Maps of probability of deforestation for the period from 2002 to 2018 (A) and reforestation (B).

3.4 PROJECTION OF FUTURE BASELINE CARBON EMISSIONS AND REMOVAL IN THE VALDIVIAN COASTAL RESERVE (VCR) According to projection of baseline carbon emissions due to deforestation, which will take place at the projected rates in the VCR, 1.58 million tons (minimum 1.13 million tons, maximum 2.21 million tons) will be emited by the year 2050. Over the same period of time, the projected reforestation rates yield a baseline of 261,025 tons (minimum 231,830 tons, maximum 290,517 tons) of carbon

removed from the atmosphere. Without designation of the reserve, with projected rates of deforestation and reforestation, the balance of carbon in the VCR would amount to a loss of 1.32 million tons emitted by the year 2050. However one of the goals for the VCR is the conservation and restoration of forest in deforested areas; under this scenario, 1.43 million tons of accumulated carbon would be stored, during the period from 2007 to 2050, with the proposed restoration of non forest areas. Finally, the scenario that considers the conservation of the remnant forests in the year 2002, in addition to the proposed restoration of nonforest areas, establishes an aboveground carbon store of 3.0 million tons removed.

Science Foundation (Grant GEO-0452325) to attend this conference and the FORECOS Scientific Nucleus P01-057-F (MIDEPLAN-Chile). REFERENCES
Gonzlez P., Kroll B. Y Vargas C. 2006. Forest Restoration Carbon Analysis of Baseline Carbon Emissions and Removal in Tropical at La Selva Central, Per. Topical Report. Award DE-FC-26-01NT41151. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Morgantown, WV USA. 57 p. Di Castri, F., Hajek, E.R., 1976. Bioclimatologa de Chile. Vicerrectora Acadmica, Universidad Catlica de Chile, Santiago, Chile. Huber, A, A. Iroum. 2001. Variability of annual rainfall partitioning for different sites and forest covers in Chile. Journal of Hydrology, Volume 248, Issues 1-4, 15, Pages 78-92. Conaf, Conama, Birf, Universidad Austral de Chile, Pontificia Universidad Catlica de Chile, Universidad Catlica de Temuco, 1999. Catastro y Evaluacin de los Recursos Vegetacionales Nativos de Chile. Informe Nacional con Variables Ambientales. Santiago, Chile. Chvez, P.S., 1996. Image-based atmospheric corrections.Revisited and improved. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 62, 10251036. Teillet, P.M., Guindon, B. & Goodeonugh, D.G. 1982. On the slope-aspect correction of multispectral scanner data. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing 8: 84-106. ERDAS, 2005. ERDAS Imagine version 8.7. Leica Geosystems Inc. Echeverra, C; D, Coomesa; J, Salas; J, M,Rey-Benayas; A, Lara, A,Newton. 2006. Rapid deforestation and fragmentation of Chilean Temperate Forests. Biological Conservation. Volume 130, Issue 4, Pages 481-494. Chuvieco, E., 1996. Fundamentos de teledeteccion espacial, third ed. Ediciones RIALP, S.A., Madrid. ESRI, 1999. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., Redlands, CA, USA. Gayoso J. y B. Schlegel. 2003. Estudio Lnea Base carbono. Carbono en bosques nativos, matorrales y praderas de la Dcima regin de Chile. Documento tcnico 20 pag. Conama. 2003. Estrategia y plan de Accin de para la Conservacin de la Biodiversidad en la Regin de Los Lagos. Puerto Montt.

4 CONCLUSIONS
This work has succeeded in quantifying an important change in forest cover in south Chile, and in assessing the importance of the carbon sequestration ecosystem service that has taken place in the study area. The research applies standard remote sensing methods in conjunction with dasometric variables translated to carbon estimates and the incorporation of spatial geoenvironmental variables that explain the processes of deforestation and reforestation. The identification of these processes and its patterns is important to facilitate future landscape management and monitoring actions in these important biodiversity reservoir. A planned forest conservation and reforestation project could significantly increase the provision of ecological services of this temperate rainforest. Finally an proactive management with a focus on biodiversity conservation and sustainable use is very important policy to establish. Although an analysis of the effects of deforestation and current firewood consumption trends, was outside the scope of the present study, the description of land use provides a basis for future research investigating such impacts.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This research was made possible by funding from Climate Change Initiative project developed by The Nature Conservancy (TNC). We wanted to thank Patrick Gonzalez and Leonardo Sotomayor (TNC) Hctor F. del Valle (CENPAT Argentina), Carlos Bahamndez (INFOR, Chile). Also we ackowledge the reciept of funds from the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) CRN II # 2060 which is supported by the //US// National