Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
February 1, 2013
Bank of India
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 3QFY13 2,308 1,856 803 2QFY13 2,196 1,854 302 % chg (qoq) 5.1 0.1 166.2 3QFY12 2,068 1,732 716 % chg (yoy) 11.6 7.2 12.2
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 20,303 1.1 408/254 129,838 10 19,781 5,999 BOI.BO BOI@IN
`354 `380
12 months
During 3QFY2013, Bank of India reported a net profit growth of 12.2% yoy, mainly aided by lower tax expenses, while the earnings at PBT level declined by 9.5% yoy. Key highlight from the results was the moderation witnessed on the slippages front. Advance growth healthy; NIMs decline sequentially: During 3QFY2013, the overall advances for the bank registered a healthy growth by 20% yoy. Domestic advances grew by 15.7% yoy (aided by strong growth in agri segment and higher lending in segments such as corporate and retail), while international advances grew by 30.5% yoy (due to higher short term credit). Domestic CASA deposits grew at 12.0% yoy, largely aided by 13.2% growth in domestic saving deposits. The domestic reported CASA ratio for the bank improved sequentially by ~100bp to 32.8%. Domestic NIM came off by 4bp sequentially to 2.8%, while the foreign NIMs declined significantly by 10bp qoq to 1.1%. Despite, 8.6% yoy decline in income from the CEB segment, the bank witnessed a moderate 9% yoy growth in non-interest income (excluding treasury), aided by higher recoveries from written-off accounts and strong growth in income from the forex segment. During the quarter, the asset quality pressures for the bank showed early signs of abating, as the annualized slippage ratio came in much lower sequentially at 2.0%, compared to 3.6% in 1HFY2013. Recoveries/upgrades improved sequentially to `679cr compared to an average of `540cr in the last two quarters. The bank reported higher write-offs during the quarter at `811cr compared to a total of `316cr in 1HFY2013. Higher write-offs coupled with lower slippages and better recoveries/upgrades, aided the bank to maintain its gross NPA levels sequentially, on an absolute basis. The banks PCR remained largely stable sequentially at 60.7%. Of the slippages during the quarter, nearly 55% came from a single account in the steel sector. Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth ~`2,200cr during the quarter, of which almost 40% came from the textile industry. As of 3QFY2013, the standard restructured book of the bank stands at ~6.5% of the total loan book. Outlook and valuation: At CMP, the stock trades at a discount to its peers such as BOB and PNB, as its RoE (even after factoring healthy earnings CAGR of 18.2% over FY2012-14E) is expected to reach ~16% in FY2014, which is still lower than its peers. Hence, we value Bank of India at 1.0x (at 10% discount to peers) to arrive at a target price of `380, which still leaves an upside of 7.4% from the CMP; hence, we recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 62.7 16.5 14.5 6.3
3m 6.6 26.6
FY2011 7,811 35.7 2,489 42.9 2.6 45.5 7.8 1.2 0.8 17.3
FY2012 8,313 6.4 2,678 7.6 2.4 46.6 7.6 1.1 0.7 15.0
FY2013E 9,075 9.2 2,842 6.1 2.3 49.5 7.2 1.0 0.7 13.6
FY2014E 11,070 22.0 3,742 31.7 2.4 65.1 5.4 0.9 0.8 16.0
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com Sourabh Taparia 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
3QFY13 8,023 5,791 1,809 298 125 5,714 2,308 937 851 293 86 246 312 3,246 1,390 833 557 1,856 916 591 20 305 940 137 803 14.5
2QFY13 8,005 5,881 1,835 289 0 5,810 2,196 894 791 288 103 167 337 3,090 1,236 700 536 1,854 1,552 1,477 (66) 141 302 0 302 0.0
% chg (qoq) 0.2 (1.5) (1.4) 2.9 (1.6) 5.1 4.8 7.6 1.8 (16.7) 47.7 (7.2) 5.0 12.4 19.1 3.8 0.1 (41.0) (60.0) 116.3 211.3 166.2 1449bp
3QFY12 7,150 5,171 1,841 182 (45) 5,083 2,068 852 781 320 71 186 275 2,920 1,188 759 429 1,732 693 333 119 241 1,039 323 716 31.1
% chg (yoy) 12.2 12.0 (1.7) 63.1 12.4 11.6 10.0 9.0 (8.6) 20.8 32.4 13.7 11.2 17.0 9.8 29.8 7.2 32.1 77.5 (83.2) 26.4 (9.5) (57.7) 12.2 (1654)bp
9MFY13 23,737 17,213 5,541 859 125 17,189 6,548 2,672 2,382 883 290 649 850 9,220 3,837 2,276 1,561 5,383 2,940 2,637 (182) 484 2,443 451 1,993 18.4
9MFY12 20,670 14,654 5,325 536 156 14,858 5,812 2,354 2,019 920 335 305 794 8,167 3,487 2,186 1,301 4,679 2,415 1,545 360 510 2,265 540 1,725 23.8
% chg (yoy) 14.8 17.5 4.1 60.3 (19.7) 15.7 12.7 13.5 18.0 (4.0) (13.6) 113.2 7.0 12.9 10.0 4.1 20.0 15.0 21.8 70.7 (5.0) 7.9 (16.6) 15.5 (540)bp
Actual 2,308 937 3,246 1,390 1,856 916 940 137 803
Estimates 2,253 936 3,189 1,374 1,815 1072 743 186 557
Var (%) 2.5 0.1 1.8 1.2 2.3 (14.6) 26.5 (26.5) 44.2
February 1, 2013
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Profitability ratios excluding CIR for domestic operations
Sharp fall of 35bp in foreign yield on funds was on account of higher short-term lending by the bank, taking advantage of excess liquidity. The overall NIM came off sequentially by 6bp to 2.36% (adjusting for interest on income tax refund, it would have been 2.34%). Going forward during 4QFY2013, the Management has guided for domestic NIM to be in the range of 2.95-3.0%, and global NIM to be 2.6%, as they target higher domestic lending and also due to expectation of no interest reversals.
78.2
12.2 9.8
75.0
19.5 21.7
16.8 6.5
22.9 15.7
19.5 11.2
20.0 13.6
32.4
32.8
31.2
31.8
30.5 30.0
72.0
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
Exhibit 6: Strong Gr. in Agri and higher corporate loans aide Domestic loan Gr.
Particulars (` cr) Agricultural SME Corporates Retail Domestic advances International Global advances 3QFY13 24,949 32,561 20,914 87,506 2QFY13 % chg (qoq) 23,034 31,459 20,280 73,622 8.3 3.5 2.6 3.1 18.9 3QFY12 % chg (yoy) 20,780 31,150 93,391 18,004 67,030 20.1 4.5 18.4 16.2 15.7 30.5 20.0 % to total 9.0 11.8 40.0 7.6 68.4 31.6 100.0
32.8
74.0
February 1, 2013
Moderate growth in non-interest income (excluding treasury) aided by higher recoveries/forex income
Despite an 8.6% yoy decline in the income from commission, exchange and brokerage (CEB) segment, the bank witnessed moderate performance on the noninterest income (excluding treasury) front, with a growth of 9.0% yoy, aided by higher recoveries from written-off accounts and strong growth in income from forex segment. Recoveries from written-off accounts grew by 32.4% yoy to `246cr, while income from forex segment grew at a strong pace of 46.2% yoy to `181cr. Income from treasury grew by 20.8% yoy to `86cr. Overall, non-interest income for the bank grew by 10% yoy.
Exhibit 10: Higher recoveries & Strong forex income gr. aides non-int. inc. Gr.
Particulars (` cr) CEB Treasury Forex Recoveries Others Other income Other income excl. treasury
Source: Company, Angel Research
3QFY13 2QFY13 293 86 181 246 131 937 851 288 103 184 167 153 894 791
% chg (qoq) 3QFY12 1.8 (16.7) (1.5) 47.7 (14.1) 4.8 7.6 320 71 124 186 151 852 781
Of the slippages during the quarter, nearly 55% came from a single account in the steel sector. Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth ~`2,200cr during the quarter, compared to ~`4,800cr in 1HFY2013. Almost 40% of the restructuring during the quarter came in the textile industry. As of 3QFY2013, the standard restructured book of the bank stood at ~`18,136cr, ~6.5% of the loan book. Going forward, as per the Management, no major advances are in the restructuring pipeline.
59.0
2.7 1.8
2.3 1.5
2.6 1.7
3.4 2.0
3.1 2.0
55.0
OIET yoy chg (%, RHS) 0.8 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 -
0.8
40.7
41.9
42.0
40.0
39.0 38.0
42.8
0.5 -
February 1, 2013
Investment arguments
Reasonably high fee income with a moderate funding mix
The banks international operations contribute a substantial ~29% (30.5% yoy growth in 3QFY2013 primarily due to rupee depreciation) to the banks advances. International operations enable a wider spectrum of fee-based services to the banks domestic corporate and retail customers; foreign currency fund-based services to Indian corporates; and savings products to the banks PIO clients abroad. The bank has a moderate funding mix, with domestic reported CASA ratio at 33.8% as of 3QFY2013.
February 1, 2013
Earlier estimates FY2013 18.0 17.0 25.6 2.2 10.5 6.0 14.0 3.9 60.5 FY2014 15.0 15.0 25.4 2.4 2.4 15.0 10.0 2.8 65.0
Revised estimates FY2013 17.0 15.0 26.0 2.3 12.0 4.0 15.0 3.0 63.5 FY2014 17.0 15.0 25.8 2.4 0.9 15.0 10.0 2.6 65.0
0.8x
1.1x
1.4x
1.7x
2x
February 1, 2013
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Bank of India (BoI) is amongst the five largest banks in India, with a balance sheet size of over `4lakh cr. The bank has a pan-India network of around 4,150 branches, of which ~64% are located in rural and semi-urban areas. The bank also has considerable presence overseas, which accounts for ~29% of its total loans (amongst the highest in the Indian banking industry).
February 1, 2013
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Ratio analysis
Y/E March NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis (%) NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage (x) RoE 2.7 0.6 2.1 0.4 2.4 1.1 3.6 1.5 2.1 0.6 1.5 19.6 29.2 2.3 0.9 1.4 0.2 1.7 0.8 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.7 20.4 14.2 2.5 0.6 1.9 0.1 2.0 0.7 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.8 21.8 17.3 2.3 0.8 1.4 0.1 1.5 0.8 2.3 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.7 20.6 15.0 2.2 0.9 1.3 0.1 1.4 0.8 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.7 19.7 13.6 2.4 0.7 1.7 0.0 1.7 0.8 2.5 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.8 20.1 16.0 6.2 1.6 2.3 10.7 1.5 2.0 7.8 1.2 2.0 7.6 1.1 2.0 7.2 1.0 2.5 5.4 0.9 3.4 57.2 223.9 8.0 33.1 231.9 7.0 45.5 288.3 7.0 46.6 324.1 7.0 49.5 351.8 9.0 65.1 400.2 12.0 1.7 0.4 1.8 0.3 74.6 2.9 1.3 2.9 0.7 65.5 2.2 0.9 1.7 0.3 72.2 2.3 1.5 2.5 0.6 64.2 3.4 1.9 3.0 0.8 63.5 4.1 2.0 2.6 0.6 65.0 26.8 75.3 13.0 8.9 27.8 73.3 12.9 8.5 25.4 71.3 12.2 8.3 26.7 78.2 12.0 8.6 26.0 79.6 11.3 8.3 25.8 80.9 10.8 8.2 FY09 2.8 36.2 1.5 29.2 FY10 2.4 43.8 0.7 14.2 FY11 2.6 48.5 0.8 17.3 FY12 2.4 42.5 0.7 15.0 FY13E 2.3 41.8 0.7 13.6 FY14E 2.4 40.7 0.8 16.0
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Bank of India No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
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