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The forecast is a tool utilized by prospective gas well lease purchasers to assess potential
extraction capacities and inherent revenue from oil and natural gas extractions. These
lease purchase are normally one to ten years in tenor. Purchasers are either bullish or
bearish on their view of whether the wells or new drillings will actually deliver the
extraction projections. They are willing to pay a premium for land leases with projected
positive returns or history of successful transactions (piggy-backing); and seek to attain
discounts with lease purchases deemed “wildcatting”, (an oil or natural-gas well drilled
speculatively in an area not known to be productive).
Economic projection gas prices are based upon NYMEX strip prices (average of the daily
settlement price of the next 12 months futures contracts) and constant cost parameters.
350,352 x 7.13 = 2498009.76 (price we will sell natural gas for in market)
Yes. Economic projection forecasts are reliable. The forecasts are done by consulting
firms and geological surveyors utilizing highly sophisticated and advanced technologies.
The forecasts are mostly accurate widely used in projections of gas production in oil and
natural gas wells. In Aramaco’s case, the reservoirs are Hidle-Deaver, in Johnson, Texas,
the Williamson Lease of the Tres Vistas Prospect in Fort Worth and the Williamson lease
in Parker, Texas, with Aramaco as the operating company, and having a working interest
in, or having the right to sell.
Energy trading company buys natural gas from Aramaco at 98% of cost and sells it at
100% in the market.
Therefore, the notional = gross gas production purchased for re-sell minus margin.
We can arrive at a notional calculation using the following attributes:
The Aramaco transaction is a purchase and sale contract with executory treatment.
Assess for embedded derivatives.
The contract is predominantly based on sales or service revenues of one of the parties.
Assess for embedded derivatives.
The contract allows us to recoup all fees associated in marketing the Aramaco gas.
Criteria met for derivative definition.
The pricing formula is an embedded derivative because it changes the price risk from
the gas price notional (gas gross x gas price minus margin) to the strip price, or
spot price (see notes).
The contract has a pricing formula other than the market price of the natural gas itself.
Notes:
Embedded derivative must be separated from the host contract, recorded at “fair value”
and accounted for separately in the balance sheet (bifurcation)
Natural gas spot prices – pegged on Henry Hub, Louisiana (NYMEX Natural Gas Futures
Near-Month Contract Settlement Price)
Henry Hub spot prices are reported in dollars per million Btu.
Natural Gas spot price – represents natural gas sales contracted for next day delivery and
title transfer at the Henry Hub Gas Processing plant.