CONTENTS

Letter from the President - Page 3 Editors Note - Page 4 There are only three ways to trade commodities by Larry Williams - Page 5 Using Stops to your advantage by Sumeet Jain - Page 12 Using Point and Figure Charts to Improve Your Existing Trading Approach II by Abnash Singh - Page 16 Book Review by Prashanth Krishna - Page 22 Forthcoming Events - Page 25 Past Events Update - Page 26

This newsletter is produced by the Association of Technical Market Analysts. All comments and editorial material do not necessarily reflect the organization's opinion nor does it constitute an endorsement by the Association of Technical Market Analysts or any of its officers, of any products or services mentioned. Sources are believed to be reliable at time of publication, but not guaranteed. The Association of Technical Market Analysts and its officers, assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. 2 | ATMASPHERE

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LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT

Dear Colleagues, This issue of ATMAsphere is truly special. Larry Williams, whom I consider as one of my key mentors and someone who has produced solid 50 years of success in his trading career writes for ATMAsphere for the first time in this issue! A true pleasure for the ATMA community that our Editor, Mrs. Meghana V Malkan received a baby Girl! Congratulations Meghana! I wish I have more colleagues as you who can have the will and the strength to continue with work, even at such momentuous occasions! ATMA is on a drive to filter out all Affiliates who may have achieved eligibility to receive a Member Status and reaching out to them to apply and upgrade their status to Member. This will facilitate holding of widely participated and fair elections n the next some months. Do respond to this call for taking ownership of your own organization, that ATMA is. Webinars are our next key initiative, to be able to reach Technical Analysts in those geographies where monthly meetings are not possible and even to facilitate those colleagues who may not find it easy to attend monthly meetings within their geographies. I look forward to an all round participation in this new vertical - both by way of speaking opportunities and learning opportunities for all of us. ATMA has been expanding its base, its scope of services and its delivery potential every month. I am pleased to share with my colleagues that in the next month(s) we shall have three Management Graduates from Symbiosis Institute of Media & Communications join ATMA for full time careers. This shall consolidate our base for deeper quality and expanse of services to our membership. Heres a truly special issue of ATMAsphere for you!.

Sincerely,

Sushil Kedia

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EDITORS NOTE
In this issue Larry Williams gives wonderful insight on the three approaches to trade commodities. Sumeet Jain explains various methods of using stops to ones own trading advantage. Abnash Singh continues the thread on Point & Figure Charting Technique from the previous issue. The current article he explains how these charts can be used to trade the Camarilla method. Prashanth Krishna reviews The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver.

Please let us know what you are doing and allow us to share your application of the tools of technical analysis to the readers of ATMASphere by sending an email to editor@atma-india.net. You can subscribe to ATMASphere completely free by clicking here.

Sincerely,

Meghana V Malkan

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THERE ARE ONLY THREE WAYS TO TRADE COMMODITIES

BY LARRY WILLIAMS
It sounds simple; that there are only three ways to trade commodities. But it is true. Under three distinct approaches to predicting or understanding what the future price action commodity. Obviously within each Let's first talk about what the three approaches are and then we will dive into the complexity of knowing the future. Analysts, or traders, trying to figure out whether they should be long or short or no position at all will rely on one of the following techniques: 1) Technical Analysis--- This is the art of looking at charts, indicators and for the most part anything that has to do with price action. The theory is that "the market knows everything and that is reflected in the last price" the us if you understand price activity, you will be able to predict what will happen in the market. This is the way the vast majority of speculative traders approach this business. will be of a

because it is easy to look at charts and come up with some type of an idea. And now, thanks to computers, people contest and research a variety of ideas to see if they have forecasting ability. Credit Suisse the massive Zurich based financial bank and fortress uses technical analysis and describes it as, Technical analysis is the study of financial market action. The technician looks at price changes that occur on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis or over any other constant time period displayed in graphic form, called charts. Hence the name charts analysis. A chartist analyzes price charts only, while the technical analyst studies technical indicators derived from price changes in addition to the price charts. Technical analysts examine the price action of the financial markets instead of the fundamental factors that (seem to) effect market prices. Technicians believe that even if all relevant information of a particular market or stock was available, you still could not predict a precise market "response" to that information. There are so many factors interacting at any one time that it is easy for important ones to be ignored in favor of those that are considered as the "flavor of the day." The technical analyst believes that all the relevant market information is reflected (or discounted) in the price with the exception of shocking news such as natural disasters or acts of God. These factors, however, are discounted very quickly. Watching financial markets, it becomes obvious that there are trends,

These charts, oscillators, indicators moving averages, and a host of other techniques and tools are believed to predict the future. This is popular
JANUARY 2013

momentum and patterns that repeat over time, not exactly the same way
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but similar. Charts are self-similar as they show the same fractal structure (a fractal is a tiny pattern; self-similar means the overall pattern is made up of smaller versions of the same pattern) whether in stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds. A chart is a mirror of the mood of the crowd and not of the fundamental factors. Thus, technical analysis is the analysis of human mass psychology.

Most of the fundamental data has to do with the production side. The United States Department of Agriculture and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission release periodic reports updating the production of crops. We get planting intentions, which tells us what crops and in what quantity farmers will be planting. Things of that nature are on the production side. As my father always lectured me, The path to hell is paved with good

I would also add into this group I called the "Arcane Analysts ". There is a whole school of market followers who believe that cycles, astrology, and a host of other mundane things are all that matter and predict the markets future, often years in advance. They are not as much. Looking at today's price action, volume and open interest as they are looking at things they believe have a very long-term cyclical influence. Some of these are astrological all others are not. Certainly the decennial pattern of sunspots, solar activity, has had a massive impact on future prices as well is the economy in general. Clearly, there is a four-year cycle at work in the stock market. It is things of this nature that these people study. 2) Fundamental Analysis--- Here we have the art of studying the production and consumption of a commodity. Fundamental analysts will study crop reports to find out how much the government says is being produced. Often they will go out in the fields themselves to get an idea if the wheat crop, corn crop, or production of gold or silver is relatively high or low. There are only really two sides to fundamental analysis the production of the commodity and the consumption of the commodity.

intentions. In our business the intentions of plantings that have to deal with mother nature. We may have droughts, too much cold weather, too much rain or not enough. It is been said that the large speculators in the world. Our farmers because they're always subject to the whims of mother nature. On the consumption side we need to look at usage and trade-off. In a booming economy copper will be used a great deal more than in a depression. When times are tough, people eat more chicken and lowerpriced pork then higher-priced beef. Thus, there is always a trade-off consumer switching from one item to another, if it is possible to substitute one commodity for another. And also an inside view of the fundamentals of the commodity market. By looking at the price differences between the nearby contracts and those trading out in the distant future. Traditionally, the nearby contract will sell for less money than the distant contracts. That is called a caring charge. After all, the person who will be purchasing or delivering the commodity six months from now, has cost involved; storage, interest, insurance, etc. At times however, this can change.

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The changes are significant. If the spread between the nearby contract and the distant narrows or actually turns positive it is telling someone wants to nearby contract so much in fact there willing to pay more for it than they normally would.

It is not so easy to be a fundamental analysts it is hard to collect the data, much of it is not readily available and often difficult to digest or understand. But it is there and it is tremendously important. I have always said that, "Charts don't move the market, conditions move the

I have news for you That person is not me and it is not you. It is the large Commercial users. Thus we can follow their tracks in the marketplace and get an insight into what they think is taking place on a fundamental basis in the natural resource markets. Another tool I use is to look at the relationship between any commodity and the price of gold. My belief is that gold represents a storehouse of value Let's call that unity. We can then see how far above, or below unity, the price of gold, a commodity gets. If it gets too far away from the price of gold but most likely will come down the gets too far under the price of gold, and a relative relationship basis, price most likely rally. As you can see, this is not chart reading this is looking at the fundamental situations that exist in the market. Thus, fundamental analysis is the analysis of the laws of supply and demand. 3) Finally, there is the way I do it I combine technical analysis with fundamental analysis. I think both are important. I don't think either has all the keys to the kingdom of wealth. It is very easy to be a technical analyst all the data is right there on your charts or in your computer.

market". To which I also point out that just because the market is conditionally ready to rally does not mean the time has yet arrived. To me, that's for technical analysis comes in to help us identify the market has changed trend and should now rally because of the fundamental condition. That's my approach first looks at identifying the fundamental conditions of the market that historically have appeared when markets have had major rallies and declines. I use several tools to do this; one is the Commitment of Trader Report, one is a fundamental major of value relating the price of a commodity to gold, another is seasonal influences, cyclical influences, and several other indicators. I have developed over the last 50 years. The Commitment of Trader Report is something I was the first trader to use and write about. When I began using it in 1969/70 no one was doing anything with it at all. No one was even aware of it... Thus, I have more experience using this data than anyone else in the marketplace. I was a founding source just as I was with seasonal tendencies in the market. I wrote the first book on seasonality in future prices way back in 1973. Prior to that book being written. We really did not know what the seasonal patterns were.

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I learned a great deal about seasonal relationships in the various commodities They are there They do work But they don't always work. You really have to know and understand the relationship of price to seasonal patterns. That can be complex, but it is also teachable of my students will attest to. A buy signal can come in several forms. One would be simply to say that prices change from being in a downtrend are flat trend to an uptrend thus the rally should continue given the fundamental set up. Another technique I use is to look at current accumulation going on in the marketplace. I've been able to determine when a market is under professional accumulation. If that start to take place. At the same time the market is conditionally set up to rally I'm obviously going to be looking to take by signals and get along the market. Thus, I combine technical and fundamental analysis; they play off of one another.

Larry Williams is an active trader with 50 years experience; he trades stocks, futures and

commodities. He is world renown educator and author of dozen of books. Larrys market and scrips forecast have been fairly accurate and much awaited. http://www.ireallytrade.com
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The Dream... has come True! Almost!

World's FIRST E-Library of Technical Analysis
; | , ||
Giving food to a hungry person is indeed a great donation, but the greatest donation of all is to give a person education. Food gives but a momentary satisfaction whereas education empowers the person for his entire life. Each ATMA Member is at this point going to be able to give as much to each other as each is going to be receiving in course. The Dream, that is how I have always called it for myself, the establishment of an E-Library that contains not just research papers and manuscripts but commercially published good books on subject areas related to us, is now within reach. Almost there..! Yes! Books on Technical Analysis, Trading Strategies, Quantitative Finance, Back-testing, Algorithmic Trading, Investment Psychology, Hedge Funds, Behavioral Finance & lots more! Even before succeeding at launching ATMA, I have aspired with my blood, flesh and soul to be able to bring up this concept. In fact, right at the day of our launch we inaugurated an E-library that contains many decades of research papers and journals! But the commercially published books could not be integrated so far and a true professional self-service e-library has had to wait. With painstaking work some of us scrounged and searched endless websites, made endless calls liaisioning and networking with some of the best publishers across the globe trying impressing upon them India is a safe country and we are as ethical as any other professional enterprise in any other corner of the world to be allowed to host a digital library of books - both e-books as well as audio books.
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Endless evaluations of legal structures, payment formalities, technologies and this sweat and toil of nearly 20 months is now fructifying! The world's most reputed, largest and oldest vendor of E-libraries has considered positively all our pitching and discussing and despite the fact that we may be there smallest customer today agreed to mail over a contract to us! This vendor has digitized the top 10000 libraries around the world! And yes, your very ATMA is going to be now served by this very vendor! Not only are we going to buy and stock up E-books and audio books we will be in time able to generate funds to have training videos in this online library. The work ahead, for all of us.. Make out a list of the top 20 books you wish to see on this library and if you wish to make the list of top 20 books you have read as a Technical Analyst, trader or a markets person make that too! Make a list of top authors if full names of books dont come to mind immediately. Make your wish lists! Mail them to librarywishes@atma-india.net & they will automatically be forwarded to all volunteers working with me and Gunjan Dua on this DREAM PROJECT. Write out your lists Email to TEAM Let team compile Team draws map Evolutionary Goal Charity begins at home and do the
now! Let

your opinion, ideas, desires be known.

The Challenges ahead..! To build a highly useful collection of e-books that make our money work well for us in this massive ongoing investment, we have to carefully select every good book available and yet also avoid frivolous or very esoteric purchases. Building a great library is an evolutionary goal. Come participate in this path-breaking initiative that will change the orbit of our Association, forever. Well, there may not be enough money, enough books, enough types of books, enough of this or enough of that, yet what you will along with patience over time to live through when there will be enough of everything, have one thing now which will never come again: be the architects of the world's first e-library on Technical Analysis.
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The world's most reputed, largest and oldest vendor of E-libraries has

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Wide variety of useful materials to win, any day, any time...

ATMA Social Awards

So many good things to win. Ramki Ramkrishnan, an ATMA trustee has kindly added five copies of his best-seller E-book, the Five Waves to Financial Freedom recently for all to win. Kora Reddy has promised to the catalogue Winning is so important, for all us, every day. Yet a winning attitude is ever more important throughout our lives. How about a win-win. You win, your fraternity wins and everyone can win? Well thats exactly what is happening with the ATMA Social Rewards... Competition is good More so when one is competing in a win win enterprise such as the ATMA Social Rewards. You can notice the points earned by you and others in the Leaderboard. You can earn points every day. five copies of personalized in your name, autographed copies of his book on Quantitative Trading too. More and more is coming. Polish your social media skills and do visit the website of an organization you own, daily. Win-Win.... yes you can win. The MyATMA private network on our website is in full swing too. Have you been not posting things on the groups you have joined there, have you not been sharing videos or other content on your Facebook type walls, have you not been inviting friends and using the Personal Messaging feature there.... oh I see, you dont see how the points on MyATMA can be encashed.... hmmm... that is going to be coming too soon. Keep polishing your social networking skills on MyATMA and keep accumulating those points, they will be usable as a very very private and special MyATMA Rewards also start, Growing Catalogue... Redeeming of points as per the catalogue to claim valuable gifts and prizes is simple. Try it, today. which only our members can participate in. Oh yes, the karma points on the Discussion Forum too will be encashable in some grand scheme. ATMA is a winning idea and a win-win with each of its owner the larger design of things in the pipeline.
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ATMA Social Rewards This simple idea is in full swing now. You will notice the Activities in ATMA Social Rewards information box on the www.atma-india.net on almost every page and yes on the home page itself too. Just click on the button in there and start winning. Simple as that. A Reward is the award and the best thing is you can choose which one....
JANUARY 2013

USING STOPS TO YOUR ADVANTAGE

BY SUMEET JAIN
The profit or loss of any position held by a trader or investor is determined by the exit strategy used. Exit stops are the most important part of any trading strategy. If stops placed are too tight then chances of hitting are more. If they are too liberal significant amount of capital can be lost. Stops are directly related to money management. Stops can be broadly categorised on the basis of charts, time and margins. Its a highly subjective matter and each trader is at the liberty to use his own exit strategy based on his risk appetite. We will have a look on the different stops that can be used in detail. Charts based stops This by and large is the most practical method of determining stops. Technical analysis always provides an edge. Charts give a user liberty of picking stops according to support-resistance zones, Fibonacci retracements, pivot points, moving averages etc. The list is long and everything cannot be covered in detail due to the scope of this article. Support-Resistance based stops Supports are nothing but demand zones on the chart. Its a zone from where buyers step in and all the selling is absorbed. Each time the price reached that particular level it bounces back. Generally one can buy at the support with a stop loss just below the support. Referring to the weekly chart of M&M above, each time the price reached the 630-640 level buyers stepped in and supported the price at that range. Above that level the equity was a perfect buy with a stop below the support. Similarly resistances are nothing but supply zones or levels. Its a zone from where sellers take control and the price cannot sustain the level thereby coming down. One must although be aware of the fact that once price breaks out of a resistance it becomes a support level. It stands true for resistance also.

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Fibonacci Retracements can also be applied after a decline to forecast the length of a counter trend bounce. Below is a daily chart of $ spot Silver. Notice how after the decline when the prices retraced there was a failed attempt to cross the 38.2% level. After piercing the 38.2% retracements the next level, 50% retracements was a resistance. This data can be employed by traders and investors to take positions with well defined stops.

Above is a daily chart of Hindalco. Resistance lines are marked on the chart and 125-128 zones. If the price again took resistance at that zone then a short sell trade can be taken with a stop just above the resistance level. Although one must not forget that once the resistance level has been breached then it becomes a buy with a stop loss just below that zone. And eventually it did. Fibonacci Retracements based stops Fibonacci retracements are ratios found in the Fibonacci sequences. Most used are 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. These levels can act as potential reversal points. After an advance, chartists apply Fibonacci ratios to define Trendline based stops A trend line, rising or falling can not only be effectively used to put stop losses but to even reverse positions once broken. It is a time tested method with a high probability success ratio. Another feature this method provides is that one can trail stops for positions held thus benefiting to the fullest from trades entered.
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retracements level and forecast the extent of a correction or pullback.

stop loss. Prices above or below the slower MA will define whether the trend is up or down and hence help with entry into longs or shorts. The faster MA will be used as a stop loss in such cases.

Above is a daily chart of Tatasteel. A falling trendline provided excellent level to short sellers to place stops. Stops just above the trendline would have worked in their favour. However once the prices broke above the trendline, which they did eventually, an opportunity to reverse profit making positions occurred and a proper trade setup was in place. Moving average based stops Moving averages are used to smooth data. They are able to remove noise and randomness from a series of prices to some extent. A slower moving average is usually used as a trend definer and a faster average to define the
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A moving average based stop loss system is shown in the chart of Nifty daily. A very important point that is to be noted is that this system will work best only in trending markets. Pivot Point based stops Pivot points define entry and exit levels. There are different ways to calculate pivots. Some of them are Woodie and Camarilla. There are a range of calculators available online and to the extent they are used, there are

decision points at those levels. Many retail traders use Pivot points to enter and exit their trades. Hence when an important pivot level is approaching some action is bound to happen and one has to make the most of it. They also work great in combination with previous close, support-resistance levels. Margin based stops This is a mathematical and a pure money management based stop. This can best be explained in an example given below. Suppose one has a trading capital of Rs. 100000. And can risk only 10% capital in a single trade; Rs. 10000 in this case. Then he gets a trade opportunity, say buy ABC at Rs. 50, stop loss below Rs. 43 and target Rs. 65. In this case if the stop loss hits he stands to lose Rs. 7 per share. But on the other hand if this becomes a winning trade then he stands to gain 12 Rs. per share. So taking the loss amount he should deploy not more than Rs. 72000 of his capital in this trade. No. of shares bought will be 72000/50 = 1440. And if the stop loss hits the loss amount will be 1440*7 = 10080/- which is the max amount that he can afford to lose in a single trade. So he has addressed the risk part before entering a trade. Before entering any investment or trade one has to bear in mind the minimum profit and maximum loss scenario to be successful in his approach. Charts Courtesy: Amibroker, ChartInk

Sumeet Jain is Technical Analyst with Engineering background and CMT Level 3 candidate. Full time trader since past 7 years in Derivatives, Equities and Commodities

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USING POINT AND FIGURE CHARTS TO IMPROVE YOUR EXISTING TRADING APPROACH - II
BY ABNASH SINGH
Summary: In the previous article we briefly saw what Point and Figure (PnF) charts represent and how they can reduce or remove market noise making improvements in your existing trading approach. In this months article we will examine how PnF charts can be used to trade the Camarilla method. The Camarilla trading setup: The Camarilla based trading system is a level based classic system, usually used for intraday trading, which postulates that market moves around a mean level which is determined by the previous days prices. There have been various stories of how it was invented, and we wont get into that but explore the system straightaway. For a trader who wants to trade consistently with decent and moderate profits, this is one of the most consistent systems which works well for high volume financial instruments. It works well with the various indices and particularly in the forex market too.

There are four key levels that are important: The Resistance - the price to which an initial long will be successful. The Long Breakout - the price above which the market is in a major long trend The Support - the price to which an initial short will be successful and, The Short Breakout - the price below which a short trend will occur. If H, L and C are the high, low and close of the previous day, the factors that go into it are: Price momentum = High - Low = lets call it momentum. Market mean = Close = Mean. Resistance/Support factor = RS = 0.275 an optimized number. Breakout factor = BF = 0.55, another optimized number.

So Resistance = Mean + Momentum x RS and Support = Mean - Momentum x RS or R1 = C + (H-L) x 0.275 and S1 = C - (H-L) x 0.275

Likewise, the breakouts are nothing but Long Breakout = Mean + Momentum x BF Short Breakout = Mean - Momentum x BF or R2 = C + (H-L) x 0.55

The market mean for the trading day is the close of the previous day and trading levels are derived from the High and Low of the previous day.
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and S2 = C - (H-L) x 0.55

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You can see that by reading the principles in the way described, it is intuitively possible to understand how the inventor wanted to express himself. See these levels illustrated in Figure 1. Note the relationship between the Breakout factor and the

Application of the theory into practice See Figure 1. This shows the calculation of the resistance and supports using the logic described above. The chart in this case shows that price remains between the boundaries of S1 and R1 without either touching either line and reversing direction or crossing these lines.

Resistance/Support factors. The former is double the value of the latter. In fact, if you examine more closely, there is a relationship between Camarilla levels and the Fib Levels too. The Resistance level for example is very close to the 61.8% retracement level. Trades are initiated when price crosses R1 in the up direction or bounces from above it in the up direction, crosses S1 in the up direction or bounces from it in the up direction. Likewise shorts are initiated with crosses of R1 in the down direction or bounces from it in the down direction or crossing S1 in the down direction or bouncing from below in the down direction. Breakout trades are initiated when price crosses R2 from below in the up direction or bounces from it in the up direction or crosses S2 from above in the down direction or bounces from below it in the down direction. These are shown in figure 1.

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Figure 2 shows a correct entry of a long trade. Seems simple isnt it?

Now look at Figure 3, and things get interesting as price bounces in different directions and likely confusion is possible.

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Look at Figure 4 where PnF charts come to the rescue. With an overarching 45 degree down trend line, we will not take a long trade at all. This avoids any long trade confusion which normal price charts are susceptible to. Even if you did use trend lines in normal charts, there is ambiguity based on how the trend lines are drawn. With PnF charts, you have just one way, and thats 45 degree trend lines. So there is no ambiguity at all.

In Figure 4, we see 3 trades, which are all profitable, but the second one is ignored as it does not achieve any significant target. Every trade that is entered is a conventional double bottom that forms below a camarilla line. Its not just price crossing the Camarilla line, but also a PnF signal being the trigger. Remember that a PnF double bottom is always a short breakout signal, and therefore is inherently a good trading signal. Combined by the price action with the Camarilla context, it becomes a more powerful trading tool.

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In Figure 5, we see the conventional Camarilla signal with a long failure. As expected, the profit generated in conventional price chart trading is usually more inefficient than PnF trading. Abnash is a seasoned industry professional with over 30 years of experience in the IT industry working in various leadership roles in reputed organizations. He has a background of both IIM and IIT and after completing his last work stint, grew his interest in trading to a fullfledged business with his online presence

through www.TradeWithMe.Me. His focus is on trading and educating others in the stock markets.

Try this in your own context and see the results for yourself! Good luck and happy trading!
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Now, the more important point:

Most important priority: Career Development of ATMA Members

Why are we after all part of this grand exercise called the ATMA, the Association of Technical Market Analysts?
To be excellent, to be renowned for our pedigree embellished with great knowledge and ethical conduct, to be sound in our approach at what we do in our profession, to be trusted, to be reliable, to be empowered with an all encompassing feeling of being organized together as a big team? Yes, perhaps all of this is true! Yet, all of this is aimed at one key goal and all of these goals will be fulfilled ONLY if each and every ATMAite is empowered with the abilities, skills and attitudes to succeed at the career each has chosen!

Those amongst the ATMA membership who have a vision, a strategic string of thoughts in place, who have had their brush with changing several jobs and who would know how the inner world of HRM might be working, please polish your shoes and step forward your best foot! I have to build on an EMERGENCY basis a POWERFUL, INDEPENDENT & FUNCTIONAL Career Development Committee Why cant we host some webinars inviting Social Media Gurus who can teach ATMA members how to promote themselves in a dignified way on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, Klout, Google Plus? Why cant we bring in some Partner of a global recruitment firm to teach our younger ATMA members how to write good CVs and cover letters and how to network to be on the frontline for discovering the best jobs? Go take a look at the Career Development Centre on the website of our parent organization the http://www.mta.org I need a team of strong-willed, independent minded mad men and women who have a solitary goal: beat Sushil Kedia & his early team & create an admirable Career Development Centre which is at least at par with the MTA and perhaps way more!!

Right at the inception this vision was incorporated into the design of our website. A powerful JOBS-BOARD exists where not only our members can build their fully visible CVs they can also build additional CVs with anonymous values in key fields such as name of current employer etc. etc. All of us must TORTURE TEST this tool, now and as many problems or errors or deficiencies are found must be noted and written to webmaster@atma-india.net. Have patience while you critique the deficiencies! Dont stop at just pointing out what is lacking, but have the tenacity to stretch your thinking into proposing a solution. Difference between criticism and leadership is that leaders identify what is missing and figure out how to fix it! Own ATMA now! Some few of us at the fight are getting bored of being its solitary owners.
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Get going ATMA! Long way to go and yes the world must yield the place to us the Technical Analysts that we deserve! Does ATMA belong to you? If not, who does it belong to?! Then within the Job-board is a feature for incorporating the profiles of your companies with a nice write up and logo you can make yourself a featured employer on this powerful tool that this mad 43 year old man could envision even at inception when he had no ideas of how a website is built. If I can stretch my brain and body so far, what stops you mightier younger, energetic smarter folks to beat me blue and black?

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BOOK REVIEW - THE SIGNAL AND THE

in 49 of the 50 States during the 2008 United States Presidential Election and recently in the just concluded 2012 elections predicted the correct winner in 50 out of 50 states. The name of the person who was able to do that is Nate Silver and the book review is of his book, The Signal and the Noise.

NOISE: WHY SO MANY PREDICTIONS FAIL BUT SOME DON'T

REVIEWED BY PRASHANTH KRISHNA
Niels Bohr, a Danish physicist who won the Nobel Prize for his foundational atomic contributions and to

The book is a collection of cases where statistics is rigorously applied on a daily basis to try to predict the outcomes. The subjects range from Weather Forecasting, the Stock Markets to Sports betting and forecasting where the next Earthquake could happen. While we have been successful in forecasting weather to a better extend than ever before, even the best of knowledge is not able to get any closer when it comes to predicting earth quakes for instance. This book looks at the various aspects of it in a similar way to how Jack Schwager does in his series of Market Wizards by interviewing those in the front line of the said subjects. For those of us who are involved in the Stock Markets, Prediction in the Holy Grail of this business. An ability to correctly forecast the market can lead to unlimited riches and this has always held our fascination in trying to replicate every method that is there in an attempt to try to get to that goal. Prediction in itself does not have to about knowing which stock will double this year, but rather trying to know the probability of which of those stocks could double from here and then betting on the best possible outcome. While the book in itself does not need any pre-reading, a person who reads more about Bayes Theorem would be able to read and understand the book in a better way than one who is introduced to Bayes in this book alone. The title of the book in itself tries to offer a clue to how one has to go about when trying to predict any happening. There is most of the time lot of Signals
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understanding

structure

quantum

mechanics once said and I quote Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. But that does stop us from trying to predict on everything we have an opinion on. It may be as simple as whether it will rain tomorrow or not to as complex as when would humans finally set foot on Mars. We love to predict who will win the current test match to who will be our next Prime Minister. While much of our predictions are to compete with our friends and colleagues, Prediction is a Big business elsewhere. The ability to predict say the stock markets with any degree of certainty can ensure tremendous riches for the predictor while the same going wrong can devastate him financially. While betting is illegal in India, elsewhere you can bet on everything from the weather to the gender of Kate Middletons child and the ability to predict a complex or improbable event can lead to great fame. Election forecasting is as old as maybe Elections themselves and in this field came a new name in 2008 when he was able to correctly predict the winner
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emanating but at the same time, there is also tremendous Noise that conflicts with the said signal. A good forecaster is able to segregate the two and then try to focus on what the Signal is trying to say. While the book does not deal a great deal with the stock markets, the fact is that we regularly deal with numbers and probability. That alone should be reason enough to read this book and following it up with books that go to more depth in the relationship between numbers and happenings. And to conclude, let me quote a paragraph from his chapter on Conclusions. Prediction is difficult for us for the same reason that its so important: it is where objective and subjective reality intersect. Distinguishing the Signal from the Noise requires both Scientific Knowledge and Self Knowledge; the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference. A good follow-up to this book, would be The Drunkard's Walk - How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow

Prashanth Krishna is a Professional Investor and Trader for the last 15 years, Technical Analysis is his forte. Currently working as AVP (Technical) at Growth Avenues Asset Advisors Pvt Ltd.

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Women in Technical Analysis

A Necessary Initiative: Are markets a mans world? Is Technical Analysis a mans domain? Answer is clearly no, since markets as the final masters are the ultimate level playing field. Yet, for various legacy reasons markets have continued to be dominated by men, so far.

We've have instituted a separate committee altogether titled, "Women in Technical Analysis". If you can think of a better name that may be turned easily into a good & RESPECTABLE acronym using the first letters of each word, please do suggest. ATMA will fund an extra monthly meeting on any good educational topic EACH Month for AT LEAST the next 12 months under the Women in Technical Analysis series where the speaker, the delegates and the volunteers will all be women. A well appointed 80 seater conference hall with all modern business amenities in perhaps one of the most secure & safe buildings of Mumbai right at a well known Commodity Exchange is being worked out as a permanent venue! This would make Mumbai the only city in the world of Technical Analysis where there would now regularly be TWO monthly meetings, it would also be a first of its kind anywhere in the world, Educational Monthly Meetings only for women! So here is a special committee to be comprised ONLY of women, FOR the women and BY the Women at the ATMA. Your mandate as a Committee is way larger: To represent, ascertain, decipher and then achieve the goals for Women in Technical Analysis. "I am surprised & IMPRESSED that you have critical mass to hold a women-only meeting! Its a wonderful thing if you can pull it off. Id love to speak to the group someday" - Katie Stockton , Vice President, MTA Oh the Women Technical Analysts of India, write to us for membership enquiries on: membership@atma-india.net and for volunteering on volunteer@atma-india.net! Soliciting Women Volunteers: While a formal new fully empowered Committee is being built as Women in Technical Analysis you are welcome to join all other Committees too!
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Increasingly a larger and larger percentage of women are excelling at markets and we do know many good Technicians such as Connie Brown, Louise Yamada, Katie Stockton to just name a few have made their mark on the globe! Its time for India to discover its own Ms. Browne, Ms. Yamada & Ms. Stockton! The goal clearly is also to include any number of women Technical Analysts you know and who are not yet ATMA members, to bring to the main-stream. Speak to them, let them know the exceptional work ATMA has been producing and get them to become members so that there are at least a 100 women members of ATMA in the very near future to take your representation to at least 20% and hopefully as numbers grow the spiral effect will someday take you closer to 35% or even more than 50%! Of the 500+ members of ATMA active at this point, only 24 are women. That's an abysmal number. The truth is a far bigger percentage of women are technical analysts than the percentage women members in ATMA! Why? I dont have any good answer, but would guess that networking, professional link building and such other extracurricular activities havent been easier for women. Here is a special initiative for You - the women Technical Analysts of India, way more organized, crisper and resourceful than what has been done so far for the general membership, at large.
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We've have instituted a separate committee altogether titled, "Women in Technical Analysis". If you can think of a better name that may be turned

FORTHCOMING EVENTS 8th ATMA KOLKATA MEETING

Date - 2nd February, 2013 Venue - Mangalam Business Centre Timing - 2.00 pm to 6.00 pm Presenter - Mr. Vivek Joshi is a Technical Research Analyst by profession with an experience of analyzing the markets for around eight years now. Having done PGDBM from IMT Ghaziabad and a science graduate, he serves as a visiting faculty to various management institutes for financial topics. He has his own blog called as madaboutstocks, to visit click here:

http://madaboutstocks.blogspot.com Topic of Study - "Volume, Open Interest & Volatility" Focus of Meeting shall be: Importance of the volume, open interest & volatility indicators How to analyze volume, open interest & volatility How does volume, open interest & volatility help in better analysis of Markets.

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PAST EVENTS UPDATES 27th ATMA MUMBAI MEETING

Date: 12th January, 2013 Venue: M C Ghia Hall, Mumbai Attended by: 200 participants Presenter 1: Mr. Sushil Kedia (B.Com. Grad. CWA, PGDBM, FRM, CAIA, CMT) - Founder President of ATMA Topic of study: Art of War & Technical Analysis Focus of the Meeting: War is the highest embodiment of human conflict Every decision is a resolution of some conflict Principles of warfare are applied to all business achievement processes As Technical Analysts, whether we trade or we invest, there are meals for a lifetime in studying parallels between war and our work Sun Tzus Art of War is on the top-10, must read list of books of Mr. Kedia and he will likely take the gathered through a delectable journey of numbers, charts, philosophy, sociology, mathematics, anthropology, physics and all of it centered around how knowing the Art of War improves each piece of work we do as Technical Analysts. Topic of study: Global Technical Outlook - 2013 Focus of the Meeting: What are the charts saying about the condition of the global economy and markets as we enter the New Year? Outlook for commodities globally What are global fixed-income charts saying about economic growth and inflation? Currency exchange rate charts & the outlook for major economies in 2013 Equities the best global indicator US markets what is Dow Theory telling us? A Technical look at a number of the important global stocks.

27th ATMA MUMBAI MEETING

Date: 12th January, 2013 Venue: M C Ghia Hall, Mumbai Attended by: 200 participants Presenter 2: Mr. Barry Sine, Director of equity research at Drexel Hamilton. He was formerly a director of research at Capstone Investments. Mr. Sine has frequently been a top-ranked analyst in the Wall Street Journal Best on the Street analyst rankings. He has also held positions with J.P. Morgan, Prudential Securities, and Oppenheimer. He is also the New York region presidents council representative for the CFA Institute and a past director of MTA.

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PAST EVENTS UPDATES (CONTD) 19th ATMA DELHI MEETING

Date - 19th January, 2013 Attended By - 33 participants Held at - India International Centre (Main Building) Held at - Sri Bhagwan Mahaveer Jain College Topic of study - Ride the Trend - Combining Elliott with Mechanical Indicators and Market Outlook-Roadmap for 2013 Presented by - Dr. Sanjay Kumar Sinha is M.V.Sc (Micro) Gold medalist, PGDFM, MBA (IM) & has many other degrees and rich experience of 25 years to his credit in various fields including using real time Elliott wave principle in managing HNIs portfolios as his specialty which significantly outperformed the S&P CNX Nifty since 1997. Dr. Sinha is also amongst the most accurate and knowledgeable Elliottician in India. He manages and conducts technical training and seminar sessions and designs end user session exercises on regular basis. Focus of study in brief: To Understand Relationship of Waves with Indicators Using Moving Averages to Trade Wave C Spotting Trend Reversal with Candlestick Market Outlook-Roadmap for 2013 Topic of study - Gap Analysis Presented by - Mr. Mohan is a M.B.A (Finance & System). He is currently working with Live Tips Market Research Pvt. Ltd. As Technical Analysts and Team Handling. His responsibilities includes generating Technical & Derivative calls on Indian stock market, preparing Research Reports, conducting Seminar and Workshop on Technical Analysis and Derivative strategy, handling a Team which related to Commodity, Agri & Forex & he has also maintained an Accuracy of research calls more than 85% (Include Individual & Team). Focus of study in brief: Introduction of Gaps Types of Gaps Technical Analysis of Gaps Gaps on Day Trading

10th ATMA BANGLORE MEETING

Date - 20th January, 2013 Attended By - 26 participants

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Benefits of Membership with the ATMA

Apply for your ATMA Membership Today!

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