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World Logistics Center Project Draft Environmental Impact Report

4.13 POPULATION, HOUSING, AND EMPLOYMENT


This section identifies population and housing conditions within the City of Moreno Valley and addresses potential impacts that may result from the construction and operation of the proposed WLC project. The analysis is based in part on population and housing projections identified by the California Department of Finance (DOF), Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), as well as information contained in the Citys General Plan. For the readers reference, this EIR and each of the technical reports and analyses contained herein have been written to address a series of planning entitlements, which affect several separate, adjacent and related properties. The overall project site covers 3,918 acres in the Rancho Belago area of the City of Moreno Valley. It includes 3,814 acres of land, which is the subject of various entitlements, plus 104 acres of land affected by off-site improvements needed to support the proposed development. The proposed entitlements are summarized below. A General Plan Amendment is proposed covering 3,814 acres, which redesignates approximately 71 percent of the area (2,710 acres) for logistics warehousing and the remaining 29 percent (1,104 acres) for permanent open space and public facilities. The following elements of the General Plan are included in the proposed Amendment: Community Development (land use); Circulation; Parks, Recreation, and Open Space; Safety; Conservation; and the General Plan Goals and Objectives. A new Specific Plan will be adopted to govern development of the World Logistics Center for the 2,710 acres. A separate zoning amendment will also be processed and adopted to rezone 1,104 acres for open space and public facilities uses and to incorporate the Specific Plan into the Citys Zoning Map. In addition to the General Plan Amendment, Specific Plan, and Zone Change, the project includes a Tentative Parcel Map covering 1,539 acres (property owned by the project applicant, Highland Fairview) within the project site. This subdivision map is for financing purposes only and will not confer any development rights to the property owner. The project includes pre-annexation zoning for an 85-acre parcel of land within the project area. Finally, a Development Agreement between the City and Highland Fairview (the project applicant) is included as one of the project entitlements. The details of all the project entitlements are included in Section 3.4 of the EIR, Project Characteristics. The environmental impacts of all of these entitlements on the entire project area are addressed in this EIR and the accompanying technical reports and analyses. The analysis contained in this section is based in part on the following reference documents:

Fiscal and Economic Impact Study World Logistics Center Moreno Valley, California, David Taussig & Associates, Inc., January 15, 2013. Moreno Valley Economic Development Strategy, John Husing, Ph.D., presentation to City Council January 18, 2012. City of Moreno Valley Draft Housing Element 2008 2014, City of Moreno Valley, February 2011.

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Population, Housing, and Employment

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4.13.1
4.13.1.1

Existing Setting
Population Characteristics

The U.S. Census as reported by the DOF estimates the Citys current (2011) population at 195,216 persons.1 SCAG projections estimate the population of the City, Riverside County, and southern California (SCAG) regions will continue to grow. The SCAG projects the Citys population will grow to 213,700 persons by the year 2020 and 255,200 persons by the year 2035 (Table 4.13.A). Table 4.13.A: Population, Housing, and Employment Forecasts
2011 Population City of Moreno Valley Riverside County SCAG Housing Units City of Moreno Valley Riverside County SCAG Employment
1

2020 213,700 2,592,000 19,663,000 60,000 834,000 6,458,000 48,000 939,000 8,414,000

2035 255,200 3,324,000 22,091,000 72,800 1,092,000 7,325,000 64,400 1,243,000 9,441,000

195,216 2,217,778 18,163,664 55,635 804,915 6,348,741 25,120 551,492 7,224,670

City of Moreno Valley Riverside County SCAG


1

2011 Employment data for the City and County is based on the Fiscal and Economic Impact Study World Logistics Center Moreno Valley, California, October 11, 2012. Source: Draft 2012 RTP Growth Forecast, Southern California Association of Governments, http://www.scag.ca.gov/forecast/ index.htm, date accessed March 15, 2012 Table 2:City/County Population and Housing Estimates, 1/1/2011, State of California Department of Finance Table 1: Population, Age and Sex Characteristics, April 1, 2010, Incorporated Cities and Census Designated Places (CDP) by County in California. State of California, Department of Finance, Sacramento, California, May 19, 2011.

4.13.1.2

Housing Characteristics

The number of housing units in the City has increased to accommodate the Citys growing population (Table 4.13.B). Currently, the DOF identifies that over three-quarters of the existing housing units in the City are single-family detached units (Table 4.13.C). Multiple-unit dwellings comprise approximately 16 percent of the Citys current housing stock. Table 4.13.B: City of Moreno Valley Housing Units, 1990, 2000, and 2010
Year 1990 2000 2010
1 2

Housing Units 37,945 41,462


1 2

Increase (%) 9.3 24.4

51,5923

City of Moreno Valley Draft Housing Element 2008 2014. City of Moreno Valley. February 2011. California Department of Finance: California State Data Center. Data derived from Housing Characteristics, 2000 Census of Population and Housing Draft 2012 RFP Growth Forecast, Southern California Association of Governments, http://www.scag.ca.gov/forecast/ index.htm, date accessed March 15, 2012.

E-5 Population and Housing Estimates, for Cities, Counties, and the State, 20102011, with 2010 Benchmark, State of California Department of Finance, http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-5/2011-20/ documents/E-5_2011_Internet_Version.xls, May 2011, website accessed March 22, 2012.

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Table 4.13.C: Composition of the Housing Stock, 2010


City of Moreno Valley Housing Type Single-Family, Detached Single-Family, Attached 2- to 4-Unit Structure/ 5- or More Unit Structure Mobile Home Total Number of Units 42,812 1,105 8,812 1,043 53,772 Percentage 79.6% 2.0% 16.4 2.0 100%

Source: State of California, Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties and the State, 20012010, with 2000 Benchmark. Sacramento, California, May 2010.

4.13.1.3

Employment Characteristics

As identified in Table 4.13.A, approximately 25,120 jobs were located within the City in 2011. Based on available data from 2010 (SCAG 2010), the largest share of Moreno Valleys jobs were in the education and health care sector (40.2%). The top four employment sectors, education and health care (40.2%), retail trade (18.2%), leisure/hospitality (10.9%), and professional and management (6.1%) accounted for three-fourths of jobs in the City. Table 4.13.D provides a breakdown of the percentage by job type for the most recent available data (2010). The Husing Report presented to the City Council in January 2012 also indicated that medical services and logistics were two of the few employment categories to show significant growth during the economic downturn starting in 2008 (Husing 2012). Table 4.13.D: City of Moreno Valley 2010 Employment Percentage by Sector
Job Sector Education and Health Care Retail Trade Leisure/Hospitality Professional and Management Public Administration Manufacturing Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Other Services Construction Transportation/Warehousing/Utilities Wholesale Information Agriculture TOTAL Percentage of Employees 40.2% 18.2% 10.9% 6.1% 5.2% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 2.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 100%

Source: Profile of the City of Moreno Valley, Southern California Association of Governments, http://www.scag.ca.gov/ resources/pdfs/2011LP/Riverside/MorenoValley.pdf, date accessed March 22, 2012.

The jobs-to-housing ratio measures the extent to which job opportunities in a given geographic area are sufficient to meet the employment needs of area residents. This ratio identifies the number of jobs available in a given region compared to the number of housing units in the same region. For example, a region with a jobs-to-housing factor of 1.5 would indicate that 1.5 jobs exist for every housing unit within that region. The standard used for comparison is the jobs-to-housing ratio of the SCAG region, is currently 1.24 jobs for every household. This standard is used because most residents of the region

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are employed somewhere in the SCAG region. A City or sub-region with a jobs-to-housing ratio lower than the overall standard would be considered a jobs poor area, indicating that many of the residents must commute to places of employment outside the sub-area. Table 4.13.E shows the current and potential jobs/housing ratios for the City, Riverside County, and SCAG. Table 4.13.E: Projected Future Jobs/Housing Ratios
2010 Jobs/Housing Ratio City Riverside County SCAG 0.45 0.73 1.14 2035 Jobs/Housing Ratio 0.88 1.14 1.29

The 2010 estimated jobs-to-housing ratios for the City, County, and SCAG region are 0.45, 0.73, and 1.14, respectively. The 2035 future jobs-to-housing ratios for the City, County, and SCAG region are 0.88, 1.14, and 1.29, respectively. These ratios indicate that both Riverside County and the City of Moreno Valley are jobs poor because the jobs-to-housing ratios are below the Southern California region (as defined by SCAG). The Husing Report presented to the City Council in January 2012 indicated that the jobs to housing ratio for Southern California had actually declined from 1.25 to 1.04 from 2007 to 2010 as a result of the economic downturn (Slide 7, Husing 2012).

A low jobs/housing ratio results in longer distances that residents of Moreno Valley must drive to and from work. This factor may contribute to the Citys property values which are currently about half of the regional average (Source: Profile of the City of Moreno Valley, SCAG, May 2011). For example, the median home sales price in Moreno Valley in 2010 was $155,000 compared to the regional average of $291,000. One result of a jobs/housing imbalance is a weaker or lower tax base with which to support public services. The City also experiences a large leakage of potential sales tax revenue due to the resident workers absence during workdays, as well as the lack of business and industry taxes compared to other jurisdictions of similar size.

4.13.1.4

Economic Conditions

The Fiscal and Economic Impact Study World Logistics Center Moreno Valley, California (David Taussig & Associates, Inc., 2012) prepared for the proposed WLC project evaluates the likely fiscal and economic impacts of the proposed WLC project within the City. The purpose of the study is to estimate the net fiscal impacts of the proposed WLC project and construction of the project on the Citys General Fund. The fiscal impacts identified in the study include recurring municipal revenues and costs to the City General Fund that result from the land use scenario analyzed. City General Fund revenues are generated from a variety of sources including property taxes, sales taxes, fees, and fines. Costs to the Citys General Fund are associated with a variety of services, such as police protection, fire protection, public works maintenance, and general government services. The study also identifies the general economic impacts on the City that would occur and quantifies these impacts wherever possible. General economic impacts include additions to the Citys employment, economic output, and earnings. The study also distinguishes between one-time impacts and permanent impacts. One-time impacts include benefits to the City that occur on a non-recurring basis as a result of construction activity, while permanent impacts refer to benefits that occur on a continuing basis, year after year. An examination of these conditions relative to potential population, housing and employment impacts is provided in Section 4.13.5.1, Population Growth.

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4.13.1.5

NOP/Scoping Comments

A representative of a conservation group and several individuals said the EIR should address the loss or transfer of 7,700 housing units from the Moreno Highlands Specific Plan to other locations in the City. Some residents commented that fiscal commitments by the City on other local projects by this developer have resulted in expenditures of funds that could otherwise have been used for City services. It should be noted the analysis of this change was largely addressed in the updated (2011) Housing Element that recognized the Moreno Highlands Specific Plan would probably not be built.

4.13.2
4.13.2.1

Existing Policies and Regulations


Federal Regulations

The Federal Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) monies are part of Federal housing assistance programs at the local level. Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and CDGB monies are a function of the potential change in the jobs and housing mix (http://www.hud.gov/offices/cpd/ about/conplan/). The HUDs Office of Community and Planning Developments (CPDs) Consolidated Plan is designed to help states and local jurisdictions to assess their affordable housing and community development needs and market conditions, and to make data-driven, place-based investment decisions. The consolidated planning process serves as the framework for a communitywide dialogue to identify housing and community development priorities that align and focus funding from the four CPD formula block grant programs: the CDBG, the HOME Investment Partnership (HOME), the Emergency Solutions Grant (ESG) program, and the Housing Opportunities for Persons with AIDS (HOPWA) program. CPD Maps is an online data mapping tool for place-based planning. Grantees and the public can use CPD Maps to analyze and compare housing and economic conditions across their jurisdictions. The CPD Maps tool is publicly available, giving all community stakeholders access to the same data. The Consolidated Plan template allows grantees to insert maps and data tables from CPD Maps with ease, throughout their plans.

4.13.2.2

State Regulations

The Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) is mandated by State Housing Law as part of the periodic process of updating local housing elements of the General Plan. The RHNA quantifies the need for housing within each jurisdiction during specified planning periods. The most recently completed RHNA planning period is January 1, 2006, to June 30, 2014. Due to the requirements of SB 375, SCAG is preparing the next RHNA planning cycle, which will cover October 1, 2013, to September 30, 2021.

4.13.2.3

Regional and Local Regulations

County of Riverside Housing and Land Use Policies. The Housing Element is one of the seven General Plan elements mandated by the State of California as articulated in Sections 65580 and 65589.8 of the Government Code. Each city and county is required to discuss how it will meet its fair share of the housing need in the State. The County of Riverside has a relevant policy in the Land Use Element of the County General Plan. To support future growth of the population and housing stock in the County of Riverside, the Land Use Element contains policies to ensure adequate utilities for new development (County of Riverside 2003). Specifically the policy LU 1.6 statesCoordinate with local agencies, such as the Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCo), service providers, and utilities to ensure adequate service provision for new development.

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Population, Housing, and Employment

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City of Moreno Valley General Plan. The Citys General Plan Chapter 9 (Goals and Objectives) establishes goals and objectives to guide the development, redevelopment, and preservation of a balanced housing inventory within the City. Specific policies relevant to the proposed WLC project include: Objective 2.5 Promote a mix of industrial uses which provides a sound and diversified economic base and ample employment opportunities for the citizens of Moreno Valley with the establishment of industrial activities that have good access to the regional transportation system, accommodate the personal needs of workers and business visitors; and which meets the service needs of local businesses. An organized, well-designed, high quality, and functional balance of urban and rural land uses that will meet the needs of a diverse population, and promote the optimum degree of health, safety, well-being, and beauty for all areas of the community, while maintaining a sound economic base. A supply of housing in sufficient numbers suitable to meet the diverse needs of future residents and to support healthy economic development without creating an oversupply of any particular type of housing.

Goal 2.2

Goal 2.4

4.13.3

Methodology

To determine the potential for impacts related to population and housing, the current uses, overall condition of the project site, historic and current population and housing characteristics, and future projections for population, housing, and employment were identified. This analysis is based on data published by the DOF and SCAG, as well as information presented in the Citys General Plan and the County of Riverside General Plan. As identified in the study prepared by David Taussig & Associates, Inc. (DTA), fiscal impacts arising from a land development project can be broadly categorized as one of two types: one-time and recurring impacts. Each of these broad types can be divided into a revenue component and a cost component. The study assumes that one-time revenues would directly offset one-time costs; therefore, the fiscal impacts considered focus on ongoing, or recurring, fiscal impacts of the proposed WLC project on the Citys General Fund. Revenues generated outside of the Citys General Fund (e.g., special district revenue) or costs incurred by the City outside of the General Fund (e.g., costs financed through a special district) are not included in this analysis. This methodology involves calculating the average citywide revenues/costs per Persons Served,1 utilizing the fiscal year 20122013 City budget, and applying these revenue/cost factors to the specific number of Persons Served projected for the proposed WLC project. For analysis purposes, all recurring revenues and costs are stated in constant (uninflated) 2012 dollars based on the assumption that the relative impacts of inflation in future years will be the same for both of these fiscal impact categories. Direct economic impacts reflect the initial or first-round increases in jobs, earnings, and output, all of which occur directly on site. Indirect/induced economic impacts are the secondary and other additional rounds of economic activity that occur as a consequence of the direct impacts, and can occur elsewhere within the city. The indirect impacts represent the economic activity (buying and selling of goods and services) of suppliers to the proposed land uses. The induced impacts represent the economic activity that results from household spending by employees of all companies directly and indirectly affected by the construction and operation of the proposed WLC project. The study
1

A service population comprising all residents and 50% of employees.

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estimated the number of direct employees in the proposed WLC project based upon an average employee per square foot ratio for similar land uses in the region. Additionally, all economic impacts are stated in constant (uninflated) 2012 dollars, based on the assumption that the relative impacts of inflation in future years may be difficult to gauge.

4.13.4

Thresholds of Significance

The following thresholds of significance regarding potential impacts related to population and housing are based on CEQA Guidelines (2011). A project would have a significant impact on population and housing if it would:

Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure); Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure) that may lead to fiscal or economic impacts; Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere; and/or Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere.

4.13.5
4.13.5.1 Threshold

No Impact/Less Than Significant Impacts


Population Growth Would the proposed WLC project induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (e.g., new homes and businesses) or indirectly (e.g., extension of roads and infrastructure)? Would the proposed WLC project induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (e.g., new homes and businesses) or indirectly (e.g., extension of roads and infrastructure) that may lead to fiscal or economic impacts?

Growth-Related Impacts. CEQA requires a discussion of ways in which the proposed WLC project could be growth inducing (see also Section 5.0, Other CEQA Topics). The CEQA Guidelines identify a project as growth inducing if it fosters economic or population growth, or the construction of additional housing either directly or indirectly in the surrounding environment (CEQA Guidelines Section 15126.2[d]). New employees from commercial or industrial development and new population from residential development represent direct forms of growth. These direct forms of growth have a secondary effect of expanding the size of local markets and inducing additional economic activity in the area. A project could indirectly induce growth by reducing or removing barriers to growth, or by creating a condition that attracts additional population or new economic activity. However, a projects potential to induce growth does not automatically result in growth. Growth can only happen through capital investment in new economic opportunities by the private or public sectors. Under CEQA, growth inducement is not considered necessarily detrimental, beneficial, or of little significance to the environment. Typically, the growth-inducing potential of a project would be considered substantial if it fosters growth or a concentration of population in excess of what is assumed in pertinent master plans, land use plans, or in projections made by regional planning agencies (e.g., SCAG). Substantial growth impacts could also occur if a project provides infrastructure or service capacity to

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accommodate growth beyond the levels currently permitted by local or regional plans and policies. In general, growth induced by a project is considered a significant impact if it directly or indirectly affects the ability of agencies to provide needed public services, or if it can be demonstrated that the potential growth significantly affects the environment in some other way. A project could indirectly induce growth at the local level by increasing the demand for additional goods and services associated with the increase in project population and thus reducing or removing the barriers to growth. This occurs in suburban or rural areas where population growth results in increased demand for service and commodity markets responding to the new population. This type of growth is, however, a regional phenomenon resulting from introduction of a major employment center or regionally significant housing project. Additional commercial uses may be drawn to the area by the increased number of residents in the area as a result of a project; however, it is expected that any such development would occur consistent with planned growth identified in the General Plan or applicable specific plans. As shown in previously referenced Tables 4.13.A and 4.13.B, the Citys population has grown steadily over the past decades. Population projections developed by SCAG estimate the Citys population will reach approximately 213,700 persons by the year 2020 and approximately 255,200 persons by the year 2035. The extent to which the new jobs created by a project are filled by existing residents is a factor that tends to reduce the growth-inducing effect of a project. Construction of the proposed WLC project will create short-term construction jobs. These short-term positions are anticipated to be filled by workers who, for the most part, reside in the project area; therefore, construction of the proposed WLC project will not generate a permanent increase in population within the project area. Development envisioned under the proposed WLCSP consists of approximately 41.6 million square feet of logistics warehouse and general warehouse facilities. An economic study of the project prepared by DTA concluded that the proposed WLC project could generate up to 24,642 new on-site jobs within the City.1 In addition to the projected on-site job creation, the DTA study estimates the proposed WLC project could generate new off-site jobs (i.e., indirect/induced employment) in all industries of the economy. The DTA study also estimated that an additional 7,583 indirect/induced jobs could be created in the County, of which 3,792 jobs were projected to be within the City as a result of project implementation. This estimate is derived from the Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) Input/Output Modeling System, which is a quantitative economic model that provides an approximate measure of the multiplier effect of a firms spending on payroll and purchase of goods and services. While the specific location of the potential additional indirect/induced jobs created within the County cannot be specifically determined, it is reasonable to assume that a large percentage of these jobs will be support service jobs and are likely to be located in the proposed WLC project vicinity, and therefore the City. The WLC project does not include a residential component. The proposed WLC project is located within an area that is currently largely vacant and planned for mix of residential, commercial, business park, and open space land uses in accordance with the General Plan Community Development Element. The proposed WLC project includes a General Plan Amendment to change the existing mix of land use designations to Logistics Development and Light Logistics. If approved, the WLCSP would supplant the approved Moreno Highlands Specific Plan (MHSP) project that did have a residential component. The EIR for that project indicated it would have increased the Citys population by 17,019 persons over 15 years (7,736 units 2.2 persons/unit). However, because the City is considered housing rich (and jobs poor) by SCAG, the loss of that
1

Fiscal and Economic Impact Study World Logistics Center Moreno Valley, California (David Taussig & Associates, Inc., October 11, 2012.

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projected population growth is not considered a significant impact and, in fact, a number of State policies (e.g., SB 375) encourage the creation and development of jobs-producing development in areas with poor jobs/housing numbers such as that which exists in the City. Most of the site has been used for dry farming since the early 1900s and much of the proposed WLC project site continues to be used for dry farming at the present time. Currently, there are seven singlefamily homes in various locations on the property along with associated ranch/farm buildings. Streets, water and sewer utilities, and municipal services would be extended to serve the proposed WLC project. The proposed WLC project may benefit other development projects in the project area by the installation of infrastructure (e.g., roads and utilities), but is not expected to induce substantial population growth into the area since there would be no large areas of vacant land left in the east end of the City (south of SR-60) that could be developed with residential uses. Development of high-cube logistics warehouse and general warehouse facilities will create jobs in the local economy. However, it is difficult to predict exactly how many new jobs would be generated by the proposed WLCSP. One concern expressed during the NOP/scoping period was the amount of new employment that would actually be generated by the WLC project. Table 4.13.F provides several sources for estimating potential new employment for the proposed project, which could range from 13,714 to 24,642, depending on what data source is selected to predict future employment within the WLCSP. Table 4.13.F: Employment Estimates for the WLCSP
Source/Project (Jurisdiction) World Logistics Center1 Specific Plan (City of Moreno Valley) WLCSP Traffic Study (City of Moreno Valley) Stratford Ranch3 (City of Perris) Skechers4 Husing Logistics Report5 (City of Moreno Valley) Vogel Industrial Project (City of Moreno Valley)
1 2 3

Source Ratio (jobs/ft2) 0.5:1,000 500:1,000,000 2,500:1 600:1,820,000 1,903:1 2,500:1

Square Feet/ Employee 2,000:1 2,000:1 2,500:1 3,033:1 1,906:1 2,500:1

Square Feet of Building 41,620,000 41,600,000 1,712,880 1,820,000 NA 1,616,133

Projected Jobs 24,642 20,800 685 13,714 NA 646

4 5

DTA Public Works Database; confirmed by Employment Density Study, SCAG (2001), and Logistics Trends and Specific Industries, NAIOP Research Foundation (March 20110). Extrapolation based on conversion of ITE square footage/land use rates into employment generation. Inland Empire Distribution Center Operations Profile, WCL Consulting, June 10, 2008. 2,500 square feet per employee is an average of the Inland Empire rates. Actual data from City of Moreno Valley Planning Department and Highland Fairview. From Husing report to the City Council in January 2012 based on 2003 study by U.S. Energy Information Agency shipping and distribution centers increase by 5% making it 1 employee/ 2,000 square feet. Inland Empire Distribution Center Operations Profile, WCL Consulting, June 10, 2008. 2,500 square feet per employee is an average of the Inland Empire rates.

It should be understood that the actual eventual number of employees generated by the project could vary from under 15,000 to almost 25,000 employees, depending on a variety of economic factors (e.g., actual companies that relocate and current hiring conditions). This estimate also does not take into account relocation of existing employees from other jurisdictions as a result of existing businesses relocating into the WLC project. However, these would be counted as new employees for the City of Moreno Valley. For the purposes of this analysis, the EIR will use 24,642 employees or one employee per 2,000 square feet as a worst-case estimate (in terms of environmental impacts) for future employment growth from WLCSP development. However, Table 4.13.F indicates that actual employment generated by the project may be as low as 13,714 employees, based on current

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employment at the nearby Skechers facility. It should be noted the Skechers employment numbers may be low due to currently poor economic conditions in the region and higher employment numbers should also be seen as a positive in terms of benefits to the economy and City residents, in addition to representing a worst-case condition relative to environmental impacts. The DTA fiscal impact study prepared for the project also indicated WLC could also induce an additional 3,792 indirect and induced jobs into the community (in addition to the 24,642 direct jobs). In addition, Skechers is just one warehouse project, and the following information uses a variety of warehousing projects to estimate employment generation. The new employment opportunities resulting from development of the proposed high-cube logistics warehouse and general warehouse uses will raise the Citys current jobs-to-housing ratio by providing additional jobs to local residents. While the place of residence of the persons accepting employment provided by the proposed uses is uncertain, due to the Citys projected jobs/housing ratio, it is reasonable to assume and therefore expect that a large percentage of these jobs would be filled by persons already living within the City or project area. Therefore, no significant increase in population of the City would result from the development or operation of the proposed WLC project, resulting in a less than significant impact associated with growth inducement and no mitigation is required. The second threshold for significance is Would the proposed WLC project induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (e.g., new homes and businesses) or indirectly (e.g., extension of roads and infrastructure) that may lead to fiscal or economic impacts? In that regard, the following provides an analysis of the projected fiscal effects of the proposed WLCSP project.

Indirect City Population Impacts Related to Fiscal and Economic Changes. If the MHSP project is not built, it could be argued the City may experience a financial impact from the loss of property tax, sales tax, and other revenues related to growth and development. The following analysis demonstrates that the City will benefit financially by employment and development of logistics warehousing as a result of the WLCSP project. As detailed in the DTA study, recurring municipal revenues available to the City include those listed in Table 4.13.G. Total recurring revenues available to the City are estimated at approximately $11,608,939 per year. As shown in Table 4.13.G, the greatest percentage of revenue is attributed to the Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fee (40.00%), followed by Secured Property Tax (28.9%), and Business Receipts Tax and Licenses (10.7%). Table 4.13.G: Recurring Fiscal Revenues City of Moreno Valley (City General Fund)
Source Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fee Secured Property Tax Business Receipts Tax & Licenses Tax Revenues (UUT & TOT) Indirect Sales Tax Charges for Services Unsecured Property Tax Franchises Property Transfer Tax Intergovernmental Revenues Licenses/Permits Direct Sales Tax Investment Income Amount $4,641,148 $3,360,168 $1,243,286 $623,936 $434,480 $397,401 $336,017 $258,644 $103,070 $62,550 $59,318 $40,000 $23,172 Percent1 40.0% 28.9% 10.7% 5.4% 3.7% 3.4% 2.9% 2.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

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Table 4.13.G: Recurring Fiscal Revenues City of Moreno Valley (City General Fund)
Source Other Revenues Fines and Forfeitures Transfers In Use of Money & Property Motor Vehicle Licensing Fees Total
1

Amount $12,614 $6,672 $3,857 $2,606 $0 $11,608,939

Percent1 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Numbers may not sum correctly due to rounding to the nearest hundredth. Source: Table 3A, Fiscal and Economic Impact Study World Logistics Center Moreno Valley, David Taussig and Associates, October 11, 2012.

Recurring municipal services costs to the City include those listed in Table 4.13.H. Total recurring costs to the City are estimated at approximately $5,568,409 per year. As shown in Table 4.13.H, the greatest percentage of cost is attributed to the Police Services (36.7%), followed by Infrastructure and Parks Maintenance Costs (32.6%), and Fire Services (13.6%). Table 4.13.H: Recurring Fiscal Costs City of Moreno Valley (City General Fund)
Source Police Infrastructure & Parks Maintenance Costs Fire Services General Government Development Services Public Works Transfers Out Other Uses Animal Services Community Development Total
1

Amount $2,045,385 $1,817,836 $759,357 $392,471 $217,570 $112,486 $65,469 $65,365 $48,998 $43,472 $5,568,409

Percent1 36.7% 32.6% 13.6% 7.0% 3.9% 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 100.00%

Numbers may not sum correctly due to rounding to the nearest hundredth. Source: Table 3B, Fiscal and Economic Impact Study World Logistics Center Moreno Valley, David Taussig and Associates October 11, 2012.

Table 4.13.I provides an overall summary of the fiscal impact to the City based on projected revenues generated by the proposed WLC project. As shown in Table 4.13.I, project recurring annual fiscal surplus that would be available to the City is estimated at $6,040,530, which is equal to 2.08 times the project annual City General Fund costs. Table 4.13.I: Net Fiscal Impact City of Moreno Valley (City General Fund)
Category Total Recurring Revenues Total Recurring Costs Annual Recurring Surplus/(Deficit) Total Annual Revenue/Cost Ratio Amount $11,608,939 $5,568,409 $6,040,530 2.08

Source: Table 3B, Fiscal and Economic Impact Study World Logistics Center Moreno Valley, David Taussig and Associates October 11, 2012.

Section 4.13

Population, Housing, and Employment

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Table 4.13.J presents the project characteristics that are the basis for the fiscal impact assessment. The locations of the additional indirect jobs that will be created within the County cannot be specifically determined; however, a large percentage of these jobs will be support service jobs and are likely to be located in the general project vicinity. Based on experience with similar types of projects, DTA estimated that half of these indirect jobs would be located within the City. The study also considers Total Output (i.e., total expenditures including sales or gross receipts, or other operating income) based on the different types of development projected to occur. For gross receipts, the study considers the initial or first-round increase in output (e.g., total spending/gross receipts, including payroll), all of which would occur directly on site. Indirect impacts represent the economic activity of supplier and/or supporting businesses. Induced impacts represent the economic activity that results from household spending by employees that may result from direct and direct employment generation of the proposed WLC project. 4.13.J: Project-Related Economic Characteristics
Land Use Assumptions Logistics Employment Assumptions1 Logistics Wage Assumptions2 Warehousing/Transportation (Logistics) Construction Riverside County Average (2010)
1

Square Feet 41,600,000 Employees Per 1,000 Square Feet 0.50 Annual $
3

$42,341 $48,825 $40,602

Source: DTA Public Works Database; confirmed by Employment Density Study, SCAG (2001), and Logistics Trends and Specific Industries, NAIOP Research Foundation (March 20110). 2 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Reports (California, 2010) for Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario Metropolitan Area and Riverside County; confirmed by Bureau of Labor Statistics (May 2010). 3 Standard Warehousing/Transportation Salary ($41,229) plus a small salary increase for 10% of employees to account for presence of high-level management and related office personnel. Source: Table 4A, Fiscal and Economic Impact Study World Logistics Center Moreno Valley, David Taussig and Associates October 11, 2012.

As previously noted, potential economic impacts that may occur with project implementation include permanent employment (direct on site and indirect/induced), permanent output (gross receipts; total direct output plus output produced by suppliers and employee spending), and one-time construction impacts. Table 4.13.K summarizes the permanent (recurring) employment, wage, and gross receipts values associated with the proposed WLC project. Table 4.13.K: Project Permanent (Recurring) Employment, Wages ,and Gross Receipts
Recurring Impact Employees Countywide Within City Employee Wages Countywide Within City Overall Output Countywide Within City $1.5 Billion $1.5 Billion $893 Million $447 Million $2.4 Billion $2.0 Billion $882 Million $882 Million $308 Million $154 Million $1.2 Billion $1.0 Billion 20,850 20,850 7,583 3,792 28,433 24,642 Direct Indirect/Induced Total

Source: Tables 4B and 4C, Fiscal and Economic Impact Study World Logistics Center Moreno Valley, David Taussig and Associates October 11, 2012.

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The DTA study indicates that the creation of new jobs to the City will lead to more consumer spending by employees in existing retail establishments within the City, as well as new retail development that will be attracted to the City as a result of this spending. Job creation also results in increased tax revenues to the City through increased property taxes and sales taxes associated with development of the proposed WLC project. However, it is important to note that because of the difference in timing of the development of the various phases of the proposed WLC project, the number of employees summarized above will not be realized at the same time. Table 4.13.L summarizes the construction (one-time) employment, wages, and gross receipts values associated with the proposed WLC project. Table 4.13.L: Project Construction (One-Time) Employment, Wages and Gross Receipts
Recurring Impact Construction Employees Countywide Within City Construction Wages Countywide Within City Construction Wages Countywide Within City $1.7 Billion $1.7 Billion $955 Million $478 Million $2.7 Billion $2.2 Billion $641 Million $641 Million $309 Million $155 Million $950 Million $796 Million 13,128 13,128 7,613 3,807 20,741 16,935 Direct Indirect/Induced Total

Source: Tables 4D and 4E Fiscal and Economic Impact Study World Logistics Center Moreno Valley, California, David Taussig and Associates, October 11, 2012.

As summarized in Table 4.13.L, development of the proposed WLC project is projected to create approximately 16,935 construction-related full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs within the City. Similar to recurring employment (i.e., permanent), it is likely that a large percentage of these jobs will be associated with support services and are likely to be located in the vicinity of the proposed WLC project and therefore within the City. The proposed WLC project does not include a residential component, so it would not directly generate additional new housing. Employees of the project that choose to live in the City would likely utilize the existing supply of housing within the City. Based on the potential increase in jobs (additional 24,642 direct jobs) within the City and no substantial increase in population as a result of the project, the Citys jobs-to-housing ratio would improve from the existing (2010) ratio of 0.45 to 1.02, thus achieving a greater jobs-to-housing balance within the City. Similarly, the potential new County employees that may be generated by the proposed WLC project would increase the total County employment to 585,531 from 551,492 resulting in a ratio of 0.75 from 0.70. As development of the proposed WLC project is expected to occur over the course of many years, the jobs-to-housing ratio will not significantly change immediately. The Citys current jobs-to-housing ratio is exceptionally low when compared to SCAG standards; therefore, the need for employment is immediate. A balance between jobs and housing within the City would have a positive impact by decreasing costs associated with commuting and traffic congestion. It also provides savings to consumers in the operation and maintenance of automobiles, and saving to local public agencies in terms of the need to construct and maintain new road improvements.

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Summary of Impacts. Based on the foregoing discussion and as evidenced in Tables 4.13.I, 4.13.K, and 4.13.L, implementation of the proposed WLC project would not result in a deficit in the Citys General Fund. The estimated surplus is $6,040,530, which is equal to 2.08 times the projected annual City General Fund costs. Additionally, the proposed WLC project is expected to generate sizeable, substantial, and lasting employment, wages, output, and revenues for the City and region. Therefore, potential fiscal and economic changes that could affect the Citys population or housing are considered to be less than significant, and no mitigation is required.

4.13.5.2 Threshold

Displace Substantial Housing/People Would the proposed WLC project displace substantial numbers of people or existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere?

Displace Existing People/Housing. The WLC project site currently contains seven rural residences. At the City Council meeting on May 22, 2012, some of the existing residents stated that they did not want to be included in the Specific Plan. After deliberation, the Council decided to include the rural properties in the Specific Plan in the interest of comprehensive land planning for the WLC property. Upon approval of the Specific Plan, these properties can continue as non-conforming uses, and the WLC Specific Plan designates these properties as Light Logistics (LL), which allows for future industrial-related uses (vehicle storage, light assembly, etc.). In this way, the WLCSP will not remove or displace any of the existing residents or residences from the project site. As large warehouse buildings are developed near or adjacent to these residences, it may become less desirable to reside within the WLCSP area; however, the project itself does not cause housing displacement. Therefore, impacts to the seven on-site residences would not be considered a significant housing impact. For these reasons, the WLCSP will not have significant population or housing impacts related to displacing substantial numbers of people or existing housing.

Displace Potential Future People/Housing. The City of Moreno Valley has been housing rich for many years, with much more housing stock than jobs according to data available from the SCAG. In addition, the recent economic downturn and related foreclosure/short sale conditions have left Moreno Valley, as with many housing rich communities, with an overabundance of housing stock. Section 4.10, Land Use and Planning, examines the potential environmental impacts related to the loss of 388 affordable housing units from the MHSP, as outlined in the Citys 2011 Housing Element. The Element acknowledges that the MHSP property may have to be used for employmentgenerating uses, and that land use changes with the Moreno Highlands Specific Plan area will not hinder the Citys ability to meet its RHNA obligations.1 The 2011 Housing Element therefore documents that the City has an abundant supply of housing and can meet its RHNA requirements without relying on any units from the MHSP. During the NOP/scoping process, several residents commented that development of the proposed WLCSP would result in the loss of 7,700 housing units from the project site that would have to be made up elsewhere in the City. The 2006 City Housing Element identified a potential for 5,240 units of the potential 7,700 housing units in the Moreno Highlands Specific Plan. However, an updated Housing Element adopted by the City in February 2011 indicated the Moreno Highlands area would be rezoned to support employment-generating uses rather than housing. It also concluded that pursuing any land use changes with the Moreno Highlands Specific Plan area will not hinder the Citys ability to meet its RHNA obligations. The term RHNA refers to the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (affordable housing allocations) from the SCAG.

Page 41, City of Moreno Valley Housing Element, February 2, 2011.

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Table 8-19.5 in the 2011 Housing Element states that after removing sites south of SR 60 and east of Redlands Boulevard, the Amended Inventory throughout the City west of Redlands accommodates:

4,100 Low and Very Low Income units, which is 1.3 times the RHNA number (3,045) (deleting sites south of SR-60 and east of Redlands Boulevard has no effect on low and very low income housing opportunities); 2,600 Moderate Income units, which is 2.1 times the RHNA number (1,239); 7,828 Above Moderate Income units, which is 2.5 times the RHNA number (3,068); and 14,528 total identified units, which is 1.94 times the total RHNA number (7,474).

Therefore, removal of the 388 affordable units originally identified in the MHSP (Table 8-19, page 40 of the Housing Element), including 233 Very Low and 155 Low units, will not have a significant impact on the Citys Housing Element or its ability to achieve its RHNA allocation. The State Housing and Community Development Department (HCD) certified the Citys Housing Element as compliant with State law on May 31, 2011. This State HCD certification reinforces the conclusion that approval of the proposed project will not impede the Citys housing goals as set forth in the Citys Housing Element. In April 2011, the City adopted its Economic Development Action Plan, which also identified the eastern part of the City as a potential area for major job-producing land uses. The Fiscal and Economic Impact Study World Logistics Center Moreno Valley, California (Study) prepared by DTA in 2012 concluded that the proposed WLC project would generate 24,642 direct jobs/employees to the City. Section 4.10.5.3 determined that the proposed WLC project is consistent with the 2011 Housing Element, and it will not displace substantial numbers of existing housing or necessitate the construction of replacement housing elsewhere. Therefore, no significant displacement impacts relative to people or housing are expected to occur, and no mitigation is required.

4.13.6

Significant Impacts

Based on the analysis in Section 4.13.5, the WLC project will not have any significant impacts relative to population, housing, or employment. Therefore, no mitigation is required.

4.13.7

Cumulative Impacts

The cumulative area for the discussion of population and housing impacts is the City of Moreno Valley. The proposed WLC project would require a General Plan Amendment and Zone Change to re-designate the site from a mix of land uses and zoning designations to Logistics Development and Public Utility land uses and a Specific Plan zoning designation. The project would not contribute to substantial population growth and therefore would not result in an increased demand on the current or future housing in the region. In addition, the Moreno Valley area is considered housing rich and jobs poor by SCAG, so the loss of population (and planned housing) would actually be a regional benefit according to the Regional Transportation Plan. The project may result in an influx of new workers who would need to locate temporarily or permanently in the area, but the City has an overabundance of existing housing stock due to current market conditions. Implementation of the proposed WLC project would actually benefit population and housing conditions relative to employment and jobs/housing ratio and, therefore, not result in cumulatively adverse impacts to population or housing. The WLC project would also not significantly induce growth into areas where growth was not previously anticipated since the WLC project area represents the last largest remaining vacant land in the City of Moreno Valley.

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Population, Housing, and Employment

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