Commodities Evening Update

Monday | February 11, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Monday | February 11, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis French Industrial Production rose 0.1 percent in December 2012 . European markets recovered from the earlier losses taking cues from firmness in the insurance and utilities companies. However, worries created after ECB President Mario Draghi said that further strength in the Euro might cause policy makers to cut interest rates and might restrict growth in the nation. US futures are trading on a firm note while most of the Asian markets are closed today. Spot gold prices are trading 0.4 percent lower as investors follow a cautious approach before the European finance ministers meeting today to decide on the aid to Cyprus and Greece. Strength in the DX also acted as bearish factor for the gold prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee however cushioned fall in the MCX gold prices. Taking cues from decline in base metals and spot gold prices, spot silver prices are also trading on a bearish note. Strength in the DX also added to the losses in the silver prices. MCX Silver prices are also trading with a negative bias tracking weakness in the spot silver. Depreciation in the rupee however, restricted fall in the prices today. The base metals complex are trading with a bearish note owing to lower participation due to ongoing Lunar New Year festival in China, the largest consumer of the metal. However, decline in the LME inventories in most of the metals cushioned fall in the prices of industrial metals. Depreciation in the Rupee are restricting fall in the prices of base metals on MCX. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei * Kospi * FTSE Open 5920.05 19517.59 11179.97 1930.00 16606.33
th

as at 4.30 pm 11 February 13
High 5924.15 19543.44 11299.71 1955.86 16694.51 Low 5879.10 19416.94 11135.89 1929.81 16503.32 Last 5897.85 19460.57 11153.16 1950.90 16503.32 % Chg from Prev day -0.10 -0.12 -1.80 0.99 -0.38

Source: Reuters Note : * prices as on 8 Feb 2013

as at 4.30 pm 11 February 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 80.28 1.3365 53.50 High 80.38 1.3404 53.79 Low 80.17 1.3356 53.50 Current 80.38 1.3385 53.735 % Chg from Prev day 0.08 0.16 0.29
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 11 February 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Mar13 MCX Silver Mar 13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1666.55 1666.50 30829 31.40 28.23 58309 95.79 118.90 5147 8289.00 446.70 2208.00 117.50 2430 130.10 18389 980.50 2126.00 112.85

1669.31 1668.00 30835 31.51 31.6 58360 95.91 119.07 5150 8293.50 447.10 2217.00 118.00 2436 130.20 18391 986.90 2127.00 113.00

1659.14 1660.20 30730 31.28 31.4 58100 95.42 118.27 5129 8271.25 445.70 2198.50 117.10 2413 129.30 18302 980.50 2116.00 112.40

1660.00 1660.20 30750 31.32 31.425 58153 95.55 118.33 5140 8278.50 446.45 2212.00 117.80 2422 129.70 18330 984.50 2124.00 112.85

-0.41 -0.35 -0.21 -0.22 0.12 -0.16 -0.18 -0.48 -0.23 0.02 0.13 -0.14 0.17 -0.06 -0.08 0.00 0.17 -0.13 0.27

Copper prices are trading on a flat note with mild firmness. Ongoing Lunar new year festrival in China along with strength in the DX are restricting gains in the copper prices. However, positive data from China and US in the last week is expected to support an upside in the red metal prices. Investors are also adopting a cautious approach ahead of European finance Minsiters meeting today to decide aid to Greece and Cyprus. In the domestic markets, prices are trading higher taking cues from international copper prices along with depreciation in the rupee. Nymex crude oil prices are trading 0.2 percent lower today. Strength in the DX along with political worries in the Euro region are expected to reduce the demand for the fuel . On the domestic bourses, prices are trading lower taking cues from weakness in the international crude prices. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned fall in the crude oil prices on MCX.

Crude Oil Nymex Feb 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil Feb 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Feb13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Feb13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Feb13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Feb13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Feb13

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Monday | February 11, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious, base metals and crude oil prices to trade lower as investors are awaiting decision from the European Finance Ministers meeting today over the aid to Greece and Cyprus along with strength in the DX. Worries amongst the market participants over the political turmoil in the Spain and Italy might also weigh on the prices. Week long holiday in China on the occasion of Lunar New year festival might also cause subdued trading.

Technical Outook for evening session 11 February 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold April '13 Spot Gold Silver Mar13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Feb'13 Nymex Crude Oil Feb13 Natural Gas Feb13 Copper Feb 13 Zinc Feb13 Lead Feb13 Aluminum Feb13 Nickel Feb13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 30613 1652 57805 31.09 5088 94.55 173.2 443.2 116 128.5 111.8 973 Support 1 30691 1658 58013 31.25 5123 95.2 174.8 445 117 129.3 112.25 980 CMP 30742 1661 58145 31.34 5141 95.5 175.6 446.75 118.1 129.9 112.9 985 Resistance1 30834 1669 58390 31.54 5162 95.9 177.1 448.2 118.8 130.7 113.05 990 Resistance 2 30900 1674 58598 31.7 5193 96.5 178.4 449.9 119.8 131.2 113.5 996

Important Events for Today

Indicator Bank Holiday Bank Holiday French Industrial Production m/m Eurogroup Meetings FOMC Member Yellen Speaks Country Japan China EUR EUR US Time (IST) All Day All Day 1:15 p.m All Day 11:30 p.m Actual -0.1% Forecast -0.3% Previous 0.5% Impact Low Low Medium High Medium