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Executive summary Australia digital TV briefing China digital TV briefing Hong Kong digital TV briefing India digital TV briefing Indonesia digital TV briefing Japan digital TV briefing Malaysia digital TV briefing New Zealand digital TV briefing Pakistan digital TV briefing Philippines digital TV briefing Singapore digital TV briefing South Korea digital TV briefing Sri Lanka digital TV briefing Taiwan digital TV briefing Thailand digital TV briefing Vietnam digital TV briefing
Published: May 2011 Author: Simon Murray Copyright: Digital TV Research Ltd Copyright notice: No part of this publication may be copied, duplicated or photocopied without written consent from Digital TV Research Ltd.
www.digitaltvresearch.com
FTA DTT
ATT FTA digital DTH Pay DTH Pay IPTV Analog cable TV Digital cable TV
500,000
400,000 300,000 200,000
100,000
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
China and India have a massive influence over the region, due mainly to their 1 billion-plus populations. Together, they will have 608 million TV households (73% of the regions total) by 2016. They will provide 467 million digital TV homes combined or 77% of Asia Pacifics total. Although China and India dominate the region, several other large countries, especially Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, have underdeveloped TV markets. By 2016, these five countries will have 127 million TV households combined, but only 38% digital penetration and 24% pay TV penetration. Despite the rapid conversion, digital TV will still have plenty of room for growth for some time to come. By 2016, Indonesia and the Philippines will still have analog penetration of 85% and 79% respectively. China will have 83 million analog homes and India 58 million.
18 12
12
46
115
Thailand
Vietnam Others
So pay TV penetration will rise from 49% in 2010 to 63% in 2016, adding 156 million subs to take the total to 522 million. China will provide 296 million pay TV households, with India supplying a further 133 million. However, pay TV penetration will be higher in South Korea (91%) and Hong Kong (85%). Legitimate pay TV penetration will be lowest in Indonesia (7%), with the Philippines and Thailand the next lowest, with 23% each. Piracy remains a serious problem.
Pay TV revenues in Asia Pacific will be US$16.5 billion higher in 2016 (US$37.3 billion total) than in 2010. Japan (US$9.9 billion) will remain market leader in 2016, followed by China (US$8.5 billion) and India (US$7.8 billion). However, pay TV revenues will be flat in Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea. ARPU is very low in some major countries such as China and India, with several governments controlling prices. In developed countries, there is downward pressure on ARPU as pay TV competition increases and as DTT makes an impact. Additionally, rapid growth in higher-speed broadband connections allows more online video viewing (over-the-top). ARPU is also being forced down as cable operators and telcos convert their subscribers to dual-play or triple-play bundles.
7,791
8,528
Other
Cable TV will remain the highest earner, though its revenues will remain flat at US$21 billion during the forecast period. Digital cable TV revenues will climb by US$10.2 billion between 2010 and 2016 to US$17.3 billion, with analog cable TV falling from US$12.2 billion to US$4.2 billion. There will be 358 million cable homes by 2016, up only 42 million from 316 million at end-2010. Cable penetration will be 43.0% by 2016, almost unchanged from 42.6% at end-2010. The good news for cable operators is that the number of digital subs will nearly triple over the same period to nearly 300 million, though the analog total will fall to a third of its 2010 total. Digital cable penetration will be highest in China (52%), Singapore (47%) and South Korea (43%) by 2016. China and India will together supply 88% the total digital subs. Although the total is falling rapidly, there will still be 59 million analog cable subs (7.1% of TV households) by 2016. About 38% of Taiwans TV households will still receive analog cable signals by 2016, with Pakistan on 27%. India will still have 41 million analog cable subs in 2016. Cable operators are increasingly following the example set by the telcos, with a greater emphasis on broadband speeds than on TV services. This emphasis on broadband intensified as incumbent telcos become more involved in offering bundled services. For many telcos, TV is a periphery activity in their bundles. Telcos usually provide few channels in their basic packages. The telcos provide premium channels, but spend most effort on promoting their lower-cost bundles. The number of homes paying for IPTV will take off from a low base to reach nearly 100 million by 2016 or 11.8% of TV households. IPTV penetration will be
CHTs Multimedia-on-Demand IPTV service (aka Big TV) reached 834,000 subs in March 2011, up from 665,000 a year earlier. The company wants 1 million IPTV subs by end-2011. Chunghwa Telecom (CHT) wants to migrate its 4.4 million broadband subs to its FTTx network, and reached the halfway point by March 2011. Many IPTV homes also have cable subscriptions. CHT offers fast broadband and VOD, whereas channel choice is greater on cable. CHT cannot offer linear channels, though it can lease capacity to third-parties. CHT does not carry several of the top cable channels. Taiwan had 5.31 million fixed broadband subs at end-2010, of which 2.36 million were DSL, 1.96 million FTTx and 0.93 million cable.