December 2012 EFO Charts and Tables2342

Economic & Fiscal Outlook (December 2012) Charts & Tables
Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Table
Chart
Table
Table
Chart
Table
1.1:
1.1:
1.2:
1.3:
1.2:
1.4:
Economic forecast overview

GDP fan chart
Fiscal forecast overview
Changes in public sector net borrowing
PSNB fan chart
Changes in public sector net debt
Chapter 2 - Developments since the March 2012 Forecast

Table
Table
Table
Chart
Chart
Chart
Chart
Chart
Chart
2.1: Contributions to real GDP growth from 2009Q2 to 2011Q4

2.2: Contributions to real GDP growth 2011Q4 to 2012Q3
A: Contributions to real GDP growth during the 2008-09 recession and the recovery
2.1: LFS employment and March forecast
2.2: CPI inflation and March forecast
2.3: Forecasts for GDP growth in 2012
2.4: Forecasts for CPI inflation in the fourth quarter of 2012
2.5: Forecasts for the claimant count in the fourth quarter of 2012
2.6: Market expectation for Bank Rate adjusted for QE
Chapter 3 - Economic Outlook

Chart
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Table
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Table
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Table
Table
3.1: Estimates of the output gap based on cyclical indicators

3.2: Implied trend TFP growth from cyclical indicators approach
3.3: CBI capacity utilisation (three-quarter rolling average, standardised series)
3.4: Estimates of the output gap in 2012
3.5: Potential output comparison with other forecasters
3.1: Potential output growth forecast (annual growth rate, per cent)
A: Change in sectoral job share and level of productivity
3.6: Monthly output growth in 2012
3.2: The quarterly GDP profile
3.7: Underlying and headline growth in GDP
3.8: The output gap
3.9: Projections of actual and potential output
3.10: GDP fan chart
3.11: Forecasts for the level of GDP
3.12: Indicative marginal funding cost (MFC) of UK banks
3.13: Income counterparts to nominal GDP growth
3.3: Expenditure contributions to growth
3.14: Contributions to real household disposable income growth
3.15 Level of business investment
3.16: Investment intentions and uncertainty about demand
B: Government consumption deflator (annual growth)
3.17: World GDP growth and PMI indicator
3.18: UK exports and export markets
3.19: Contributions to import-weighted domestic demand growth and UK import growth
3.20: Current account balance as a share of GDP
3.21: CPI inflation forecast
3.22: Unemployment levels
3.4: Comparison of external forecasts
3.5: Detailed summary of forecast
Table 3.6: Detailed summary of changes to forecast
Chapter 4 - Fiscal Outlook

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4.1: Determinants of the fiscal forecast

4.2: Changes to determinants since the March forecast
4.3: Summary of the impact of policy measures
4.4: Projected APF flows and the impact on the fiscal forecast
4.1: APF flows assuming alternative sales levels per quarter
4.2: APF flows assuming QE begins to unwind over different periods
4.3: Flows assuming alternative gilt rate paths
A: The effect of cancelling intra-sector flows
B: Additional effects of the forecast
C: Overall effect on the fiscal forecast
4.5: Major taxes as a percentage of GDP
4.6: Current receipts
4.7: Changes to current receipts since March
4.8: Changes to the receipts forecast since March
4.9: Receipts in 2012-13
4.10: Key changes to income tax and NICs receipts since March
4.11: Key changes to VAT receipts since March
4.12: Key changes to onshore corporation tax receipts since March
4.13: Key changes to oil and gas revenues since March
4.4: DEL and AME changes components of TME
4.14: Expenditure as a percentage of GDP
4.15: TME split between AME and DEL
4.16: Spending real growth rates and as a share of GDP
4.17: Changes to the spending forecast since March
4.18: Total managed expenditure
4.19: Changes to total managed expenditure since March
4.20: Central government spending in 2012-13
4.21: Key changes to DEL since March
D: DEL and AME switches for business rates and council tax benefit
4.22: Key changes to social security since March
4.23: Key changes to tax credits since March
E: Additional costs of universal credit, excluding financial transactions
4.24: Key changes to public service pensions since March
4.25: Key changes to locally financed expenditure since March
4.26: Key changes to debt interest since March
4.27: Reconciliation of PSNB and PSNCR
4.28: Changes in the reconciliation of PSNB and PSNCR since March
4.29: Reconciliation of PSNCR and CGNCR
4.30: Changes in the reconciliation of PSNCR and CGNCR since March
4.31: Changes to public sector net borrowing since March
4.5: Total public sector net spending and receipts
4.6: Public sector net borrowing fan chart
4.32: Fiscal aggregates
4.33: Changes to net debt since March
4.34: Changes ot the fiscal forecast
4.35: Comparison with European commission forecasts
4.36: Comparison with IMF forecasts
Chapter 5 - Performance Against the Government's Fiscal Targets

Table 5.1: Performance against the Government's fiscal targets
Table
Table
Chart
Table
Table
Table
Table
5.2:
5.3:
5.1:
5.4:
5.5:
5.6:
5.7:
Changes to the cyclically-adjusted current budget since March

Decomposition of changes in the profile of net debt since March
Cyclically-adjusted current budget fan chart
Cyclically-adjusted current budget in 2017-18
Changes in PSND between 2014-15 and 2015-16
Fiscal target variables under different gilt rate assumptions
Key economic and fiscal aggregates under alternative scenarios
Table 1.1: Economic forecast overview

Percentage change on a year earlier, unless otherwise stated
Outturn
Forecast1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Output at constant market prices
Gross domestic product (GDP)
0.9
-0.1
1.2
2.0
2.3
2.7
2.8
GDP Level (2011 =100)
100.0
99.9 101.1 103.2 105.6 108.4 111.4
Output gap (per cent of potential output)
-2.7
-3.1
-3.5
-3.3
-3.0
-2.5
-1.9
Expenditure components of GDP
at constant market prices
Household consumption2
-0.9
Business investment
2.9
General government consumption
0.2
General government investment
-20.4
1.2
Net trade3
Inflation
CPI
Labour market
Employment (millions)
Average earnings4
ILO unemployment (% rate)
Claimant count (millions)
4.5
29.2
2.2
8.1
1.53
0.5
3.8
2.4
-9.2
-0.6
0.9
4.9
-0.7
-2.5
0.3
1.6
8.1
-1.4
4.8
0.2
1.8
10.2
-1.2
-3.0
0.2
2.4
10.1
-2.1
-2.6
0.2
2.9
9.5
-3.0
0.7
0.1
2.8
2.5
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.0
29.5
29.6
29.7
29.9
30.2
2.7
2.2
2.8
3.7
4.0
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.0
7.6
1.59
1.66
1.69
1.63
1.53
Changes since March forecast
30.4
4.0
7.1
1.43
Output at constant market prices

0.1
GDP Level (2011=100)
0.0
Output gap (per cent of potential output)
0.0
-0.9
-0.9
-0.4
-0.8
-1.7
-0.9
-0.7
-2.4
-1.2
-0.7
-3.2
-1.7
-0.4
-3.7
-2.0

at constant market prices
Business investment
General government investment
Net trade3
0.0
2.7
-0.1
-7.3
0.0
0.0
3.1
1.8
-4.2
-1.1
-0.5
-1.5
0.4
1.1
-0.2
-0.8
-0.7
0.7
4.7
-0.2
-1.2
-0.1
1.6
-3.3
-0.1
-0.6
0.0
0.5
-1.2
0.0
Inflation
CPI
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
Labour market
Average earnings4
Claimant count (thousands)
0.0
1.0
0.0
2
0.4
0.1
-0.7
-62
0.4
-0.9
-0.4
22
0.3
-1.6
0.2
166
0.2
-0.7
0.8
275
0.2
-0.6
1.3
340
The forecast is consistent with the second estimate of GDP data for the third quarter of 2012, released by the
Office for National Statistics on 27th November 2012.
1
Includes households and non-profit institutions serving households.
Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points.
Wages and salaries divided by employees.
Chart 1.1: GDP fan chart
Years
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.1
0.2
0.3
-1.2
-0.6
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
-0.1
-0.8
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.7
0.9
-0.5
0.5
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.7
Median - With Skew

0.4
0.5
0.6
-0.3
0.9
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.3
-0.1
1.2
2.0
2.3
2.7
2.8
0.1
1.6
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.4
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.3
2.0
3.1
3.4
3.7
3.9
0.6
2.5
3.7
4.0
4.4
4.6
0.9
3.1
4.6
4.8
5.2
5.4
Table 1.2: Fiscal forecast overview

Per cent of GDP
Forecast
Outturn
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Public sector net borrowing

7.9
5.1
6.1
5.2
Cyclically-adjusted net borrowing
6.0
3.0
3.8
2.9
Surplus on current budget
-6.2
-5.7
-4.6
-3.7
Fiscal mandate and supplementary target
Cyclically-adjusted surplus on
-4.3
-3.6
-2.2
-1.4
current budget
Public sector net debt1
66.4
74.7
76.8
79.0
Changes since March
-0.3
-0.7
0.2
0.9
-0.4
-1.0
-0.4
0.0
0.3
0.4
-0.1
-0.7
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.2
current budget
-0.9
2.8
1.8
2.6
Memo: PSNB excluding Royal Mail transfer
1
Debt at end March; GDP centred on end March.
7.9
6.9
6.1
5.2
4.2
2.0
-2.9
2.6
0.9
-1.4
1.6
0.3
-0.4
-0.8
0.4
0.9
79.9
79.2
forecast
1.3
1.6
0.1
0.2
-1.2
-1.5
77.3
-
-0.1
-0.1
3.9
4.9
4.2
2.6
1.6
Table 1.3: Changes in public sector net borrowing

billion
Forecast
Outturn
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
Forecast changes
Policy measures
APF transfers
B&B/NRAM classification
126.0
121.4
-4.6
91.9
80.5
-11.4
98
99
1.8
75
88
12.9
52
73
21.3
21
49
27.9
-4.6
0.0
0.0
-
4.4
-4.0
-11.5
-0.4
13.6
0.9
-12.3
-0.5
23.0
0.9
-10.6
-0.4
29.1
0.9
-8.0
-0.8
36.0
-0.3
-6.6
-1.1
Memo: March EFO PSNB ex Royal Mail
126.0
119.9
97.5
75.0
52.0
21.1
Memo: PSNB excluding Royal Mail
121.4
108.5
99.3
87.9
73.3
49.0
Memo: PSNB ex Royal Mail and APF
121.4
119.9
111.6
98.6
81.2
55.6
120.3
112.1
99.0
82.0
56.7
Memo: PSNB ex RM, B&B, NRAM and APF
Chart 1.2: PSNB fan chart
12
10
Per cent of GDP
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
December 2012 EFO central forecast
Years
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
0.1
0.2
0.3
3.9
3.5
1.5
0.2
-1.4
-2.4
4.4
4.4
2.8
1.5
0.0
-1.1
4.7
5.1
3.7
2.5
0.9
-0.2
Median- with skew

0.4
0.5
0.6
4.9
5.6
4.5
3.3
1.8
0.7
5.1
6.1
5.2
4.2
2.7
1.6
5.4
6.6
6.0
5.0
3.5
2.5
0.7
0.8
0.9
5.6
7.2
6.8
5.9
4.5
3.6
5.9
7.8
7.7
7.1
5.7
4.8
6.4
8.7
9.1
8.6
7.4
6.6
Table 1.4: Changes in public sector net debt

Per cent of GDP
Forecast
Outturn
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
Change in nominal GDP1
Change in cash level of net debt
67.3
66.4
-0.9
71.9
74.7
2.8
0.0
-0.9
1.1
1.7
March forecast
1039
December forecast
1025
Change in cash level of net debt -13
of which:
Reclassification of B&B and
NRAM
Inclusion of APF transfers
Other changes in net borrowing
-5
Auction price effects
Financial transactions and other
-9
1159
1186
27
Non-seasonally-adjusted GDP centred end-March.
75.0
76.8
1.8
76.3
79.0
2.6
76.0
79.9
3.9
74.3
79.2
4.9
1.9
2.8
-0.1
-0.2
billion
1272
1365
1270
1362
-2
-3
3.6
0.3
3.9
1.0
1437
1442
5
1479
1498
19
68
62
56
50
42
-11
-4
-12
-14
-43
11
-20
-11
-55
36
-28
-12
-63
67
-34
-14
-71
105
-39
###
-17
Table 2.1: Contributions to real GDP growth from 2009Q2 to 2011Q4
March data
Latest data
Difference1
1
Percentage points
Private
Private
Total
Statistical
Net
consumpti investmen Governme
Stocks GDP discrepanc
trade
on
t
nt
y
0.7
0.3
0.7
1.1
0.6
3.4
0.1
0.8
0.8
-0.1
0.9
0.5
3.0
0.1
0.1
0.6
-0.7
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
Difference in unrounded numbers, rounded to one decimal place.
Table 2.2: Contributions to real GDP growth 2011Q4 to 2012Q3
Percentage points
Private
Private
Total
Statistical
Net
trade
on
t
nt
y
OBR March forecast
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.9
0.0
Latest data
0.5
0.2
0.4
-0.6
-0.2
0.3
0.0
1
Difference
0.2
-0.2
0.4
-0.9
-0.2
-0.6
0.0
1
Table A: Contributions to real GDP growth during the 2008-09 recession and the recovery
Initial data recession1

Latest data recession1
Difference2
Latest data recovery1
Percentage points
Private
Private
Total
Statistical
Net
trade
on
t
nt
y
-2.5
-4.0
1.6
1.3
-2.2
-5.8
-0.1
-3.7
-3.7
0.2
1.7
-1.1
-6.3
0.0
-1.2
0.3
-1.4
0.3
1.1
-0.4
0.1
1.3
1.0
0.4
0.3
0.3
3.3
0.1
Initial recession data is from the first quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009, latest recession data is to the
second quarter of 2009. Recovery data is from the second quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2012.
1
Chart 2.1: LFS employment and March forecast
Years Employment March Forecast

2010Q1
28.8
2010Q2
29
2010Q3
29.2
2010Q4
29.1
2011Q1
29.2
2011Q2
29.3
2011Q3
29.1
2011Q4
29.1
2012Q1
29.1
2012Q2
29.1
2012Q3
29.1
LFS employment (16+)

28.8
29
29.2
29.1
29.2
29.2
29.1
29.1
29.3
29.5
29.6
Chart 2.2: CPI inflation and March forecast
Years
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
CPI (monthly) OBR March forecast (quarterly)

3.5
3.30
3
3.30
3.4
3.30
3.7
3.50
3.4
3.50
3.2
3.50
3.1
3.10
3.1
3.10
3.1
3.10
3.2
3.40
3.3
3.40
3.7
3.40
4
4.1
4.4
4.1
4
4.1
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.40
4.2
4.40
4.4
4.70
4.5
4.70
5.2
4.70
5
4.60
4.8
4.60
4.2
4.60
3.6
3.40
3.4
3.40
3.5
3.40
3
2.90
2.8
2.90
2.4
2.90
2.6
2.60
2.5
2.60
2.2
2.60
2.7
2.30
Chart 2.3: Forecasts for GDP growth in 2012
Years
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
GDP average
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2
2
1.8
1.5
1.2
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
GDP Max
3
3
3
3
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.4
2.3
2
1.7
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.3
GDP Min
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
0.9
0.7
-0.4
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
GDP Range Forecasts

1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.8
1.7
2.7
3.3
3
2.8
2.8
2
2
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.1
0.9
0.8
Chart 2.4: Forecasts for CPI inflation in the fourth quarter of 2012
Years
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
CPI average
2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.0
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.4
CPI Max
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
CPI Min
0.9
1.1
1
1
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.9
CPI Range Forecasts

2.8
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.7
2.3
2.1
2.1
1.7
1.9
1.7
1.5
2
1.4
1.2
1.2
0.9
Chart 2.5: Forecasts for the claimant count in the fourth quarter of 2012
Years
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Unemployment average
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
Unemployment Max
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
Unemployment Min
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.3
1.1
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
Unemployment Range Forecasts

0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
Chart 2.6: Market expectation for Bank rate adjusted for QE
Years
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
Bank rate adjusted for QE

March
November
-3.3
-3.3
-3.3
-3.4
-3.3
-3.5
-3.3
-3.5
-3.3
-3.6
-3.3
-3.6
-3.2
-3.6
-3
-3.6
-2.9
-3.6
-2.7
-3.6
-2.5
-3.5
-2.4
-3.4
-2.2
-3.3
-2
-3.3
-1.9
-3.2
-1.7
-3.1
-1.5
-2.9
-1.4
-2.8
Chart 3.1: Estimates of the output gap based on cyclical indicators
Years "Aggregate composite" estimates"Principal components analysis" estimates

2007Q1
1.5
1.3
2007Q2
1.7
2.4
2007Q3
2.4
2.3
2007Q4
2.5
2
2008Q1
1.1
1.4
2008Q2
-0.4
0.9
2008Q3
-0.7
-0.1
2008Q4
-2.9
-2.4
2009Q1
-3.8
-4
2009Q2
-4.8
-4.4
2009Q3
-4.1
-3.9
2009Q4
-4.2
-3.5
2010Q1
-4.2
-3.4
2010Q2
-2.9
-2.8
2010Q3
-2.7
-2.6
2010Q4
-2.5
-2.7
2011Q1
-2.5
-2.9
2011Q2
-1.9
-3.1
2011Q3
-2.4
-2.5
2011Q4
-1.8
-2.5
2012Q1
-2.2
-2.2
2012Q2
-2.5
-2.4
2012Q3
-1.9
-2.3
Chart 3.2: Implied trend TFP from cyclical indicators approach
Years
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
Trend TFP
100
99.7
100.5
100.7
101
100.6
99.5
99.1
99.1
99.1
98.9
98.7
98.8
99
99
98.6
99.3
99.5
99.6
99.1
98.7
98.1
98.5
Trend TFP (adjusted)

100
99.7
100.5
100.7
101
100.6
99.5
99.1
99.1
99.1
98.9
98.7
98.8
99
99
98.6
99.3
99.5
99.6
99.1
99.1
99.1
99.1
Chart 3.3: CBI capacity utilisation (three-quarter rolling average,

standardised series)
Years
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
CBI Breadth
0.5
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.6
1
0.8
1
0.7
1
0.4
-0.2
-1.2
-1.6
-1.9
-1.6
-1.2
-0.4
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
1.1
1.1
CBI Depth
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.9
1
1.1
0.3
-0.7
-1.9
-2.5
-2.6
-2.2
-1.9
-1.3
-0.9
-0.3
0.1
0.2
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.3
Chart 3.4: Estimates of the output gap in 2012
Forecasters
Oxford Economics
NIESR
IMF
Lombard Street
Commerzbank
EC
Goldman Sachs
OBR
CBI
Nomura
OECD
BCC
Barclays
Schroders IM
Scotiabank
Fathom Consulting
Percent of potential output

-5.2
-4.3
-4.2
-3.9
-3.9
-3.4
-3.3
-3.1
-3.1
-2.3
-2.2
-2.2
-1.7
-1.6
-1.5
-0.8
Chart 3.5: Potential output comparison with other forecasters
Actual output index 2011=100

.
118
116
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
2011
2012
OBR
2013
OECD
2014
EC
2015
IMF
2016
2017
Oxford Economics
Source: OBR; OECD November Economic Outlook,

November 2012; European Commission
Autumn Economic
Forecast, November 2012; IMF
World Economic Outlook
, October 2012; Oxford Economics, November 2012.
Level of
trend
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
OECD
101.4
102.2
103.1
104.5
IMF
102.7
104.0
105.3
106.8
108.5
110.5
112.8
EC
102.5
103.2
104.1
105.3
106.6
108.2
110.0
OBR
102.8
103.3
105.1
107.1
109.3
111.7
114.1
Oxford
Economics
103.7
106.0
107.5
109.5
111.7
114.0
116.5
Table 3.1: Potential output growth forecast (annual growth rate, per cent)
Potential
productivity1
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1
2
3
-0.1
1.2
1.6
1.8
1.9
1.9
Potential
Potential
average employment
hours
rate2
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
Output per hour.

Corresponding to those aged 16 and over.
Components may not sum to total due to rounding.
Potential
population2
Potential
output
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.2
Chart A: Change in sectoral job share and level of productivity
Change in jobs share from 2008Q1

Sectors
to 2012Q2
Human health & social work activities
1.1
Administrative & support service activities
0.7
Accommodation & food service activities
0.5
Information & communication
0.2
Water supply, sewerage, waste & remediation activities
0.1
Education
0.1
Other service activities
0.1
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
0.1
Professional scientific & technical activities
0.1
Mining & quarrying
0
Real estate activities
0
Arts, entertainment & recreation
0
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
-0.1
Transport & storage
-0.2
Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
-0.2
Financial & insurance activities
-0.3
Public admin & defence; compulsory social security
-0.4
Construction
-0.8
Manufacturing
-0.9
Productivity level,
2012Q2
57.8
59
39.3
145.3
182.3
67.7
57.7
276.7
106.8
621.1
481.4
64.9
68.4
95.8
61.3
216.7
93.1
153.7
109.5
Chart 3.6: Monthly output growth in 2012
Years
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Production
-0.1
0
0
-0.1
0.2
-0.4
0.5
-0.1
-0.3
Services
0.1
-0.4
0.6
-0.4
0.7
-1.1
1.1
0.7
-0.4
Total
0.1
-0.4
0.6
-0.5
0.9
-1.5
1.6
0.7
-0.6
Table 3.2: The quarterly GDP profile
Percentage change on previous quarter

2011
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
December forecast
March forecast
Change
Forecast from fourth quarter of 2012.
Forecast from first quarter of 2012.
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0.5 0.1 0.5 -0.4

### -0.3 -0.4 1.0 -0.1
### 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.2
### 0.3 0.0 0.6 ###
0.3
0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7
0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1
### -0.6 -0.3 0.3 -0.4
### -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2
Chart 3.7: Underlying and headline growth in GDP
Percentage change on a quarter earlier

...
1.2
Forecast
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Q2
2011
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2012
Underlying
Q3
Holiday
Q4
Q1
Olympics
Q2
2013
Q3
Q4
GDP
Source: ONS, OBR
Years
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
GDP Quarter on quarter

0.1
0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.4
1.0
-0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
Holiday
-0.4
0.4
-0.5
0.5
Olympics Underlying
0.5
0.1
-0.4
-0.3
0.1
0.3
0.2
-0.3
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
Chart 3.8: The output gap
Years
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
December forecast
-3.6
-2.9
-2.6
-2.8
-2.9
-3.0
-2.5
-2.5
-2.9
-3.4
-2.7
-3.2
-3.4
-3.5
-3.5
-3.5
-3.4
-3.3
-3.3
-3.3
-3.2
-3.1
-3.0
-2.9
-2.8
-2.6
-2.5
-2.3
-2.2
-2.0
-1.8
-1.6
-1.5
March forecast
-3.7
-2.9
-2.6
-3.2
-2.9
-3.0
-2.5
-2.5
-2.5
-2.8
-2.5
-2.7
-2.6
-2.6
-2.5
-2.4
-2.3
-2.2
-2.0
-1.9
-1.7
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.1
Chart 3.9: Projections of actual and potential output
Years
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
Output (non-oil GVA) Potential Output

100
101.5
102.8
104.1
104.8
105
105.2
106
106.9
108.4
109.5
110.8
111.3
111.7
112
113.1
114.5
116
117.4
117.7
117.9
117
115
112.4
110.7
110.5
115.9
111
115.9
111.6
116
112.1
116.2
113.1
116.5
113.9
117
113.5
116.7
114.3
117.7
114.6
118.2
115.3
118.3
115
118
114.8
118.2
114.4
118.4
115.5
118.7
115.4
119.2
115.7
119.8
116.1
120.4
116.7
121
117.3
121.5
117.9
122.1
118.6
122.7
119.2
123.3
119.8
123.9
120.5
124.5
121.3
125.2
122.1
125.8
122.9
126.5
123.7
127.2
124.5
127.9
125.4
128.6
126.3
129.3
127.2
130
128.1
130.7
129
131.4
129.9
132.1
130.9
132.8
Chart 3.10: GDP fan chart
Years
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
-1.2
-0.6
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
-0.1
-0.8
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.7
0.9
-0.5
0.5
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.7
-0.3
0.9
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.3
Median - With Skew

0.5
0.6
0.7
-0.1
1.2
2.0
2.3
2.7
2.8
0.1
1.6
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.4
0.3
2.0
3.1
3.4
3.7
3.9
0.8
0.9
0.6
2.5
3.7
4.0
4.4
4.6
0.9
3.1
4.6
4.8
5.2
5.4
Chart 3.11: Forecasts of the level of GDP
Index 2009= 100 .
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
2009
2010
2011
OBR
Source: ONS, OBR, Bank of England, November
economy: a comparison of independent forecasts,
Years
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
OBR
100.0
101.8
102.7
102.6
103.8
105.9
108.4
111.3
2012
Outside average
Inflation Report
November.
2013
2014
2015
Bankof England
, HM Treasury, 2012,
Bank of England Outside average

100.0
100.0
101.9
101.8
102.9
102.7
103.2
102.5
104.5
103.6
106.6
105.4
108.8
107.5
0.0
109.7
Forecasts for the UK
2016
Chart 3.12: Indicative marginal funding cost (MFC) of UK banks

7
Forecast
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Bank rate
Short-termfunding spread
MFC
MFC March
2014
2015
2016
2017
Medium-termfunding spread
Source: Bank of England, OBR
Years
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
Bank Rate
5.2
5.4
5.7
5.7
5.4
5
5
3.4
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.8
Short-term funding spread Medium-term funding spread

0.3
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.3
1.2
1
1.7
0.8
1.7
0.3
1.4
0.1
1.1
0.1
1.2
0.2
1.6
0.3
1.6
0.3
1.5
0.3
1.8
0.3
1.7
0.4
2.5
0.6
2.8
0.6
2.4
0.5
2.7
0.2
2.3
0
1.8
0.1
1.7
0.1
1.7
0.2
1.6
0.2
1.5
0.2
1.5
0.2
1.4
0.2
1.3
0.2
1.3
0.2
1.2
0.2
1.1
0.2
1.1
0.2
1
0.2
1
0.2
1
0.2
1
0.2
1
0.1
1
0.1
1
0.1
1
0.1
1
0.1
1
MFC
5.6
5.8
6.5
6.7
6.5
6.5
6.9
5.8
3.8
3.1
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.5
2.5
3.4
3.9
3.5
3.7
3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.1
2
2
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.9
MFC March
5.6
5.8
6.5
6.7
6.5
6.5
6.9
5.8
3.8
3.1
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.5
2.4
3.3
3.9
3.4
3.3
3.1
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
1.9
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.9
4
4.1
Percentage change on a year earlier
Chart 3.13: Income counterparts to nominal GDP growth

7
Forecast
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Compensation of employees
Gross operating surplus and other income
Net taxes on products and production
Nominal GDP
2017
Source: ONS, OBR
Years
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Nominal GDP
5.9
2
-2.7
4.6
3.6
2.2
3.3
4.1
4.4
4.7
4.9
Wages
3
1.2
0.4
1.3
1.2
1.8
1.4
1.7
2.4
2.6
2.6
Profits
2.2
0.9
-2.3
1.6
1.6
0.2
1.2
2.1
1.5
1.7
1.9
Taxes
0.7
-0.1
-0.8
1.9
0.9
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.4
Table 3.3: Expenditure contributions to growth
Percentage points, unless otherwise stated

Forecast
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0.9
-0.1
1.2
2.0
2.3
2.7
Outturn
2011
GDP growth, per cent
Main contributions
Private consumption
Business investment
Dwellings investment2
Government3
Change in inventories
Net trade
-0.6
0.2
0.0
-0.5
0.3
1.2
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.3
-0.6
-0.6
0.5
0.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.3
1.0
0.7
0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
1.1
1.0
0.5
-0.3
0.0
0.2
1.5
1.0
0.5
-0.5
0.0
0.2
2017
2.8
1.8
1.0
0.5
-0.6
0.0
0.1
Components may not sum to total due to rounding and the statistical discrepancy.
The sum of public corporations and private sector investment in new dwellings and improvements to dwellings.
The sum of government consumption and general government investment.
Chart 3.14: Contributions to real household disposable income growth

8
Forecast
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
2007
2008
2009
Pre-taxlabour income
2010
Prices
2011
2012
2013
Non-labour income
2014
2015
2016
2017
Net benefitsand taxes
Total
Source: ONS, OBR
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total
0.8
0.3
1.8
0.5
-1.5
2.1
0.4
0.8
1.6
2
2.3
Pre-tax labour
income
4.5
2.3
-0.7
1.2
1.6
2.1
1.9
2.3
3.3
3.6
3.6
Non-labour income
Net benefits and taxes
Prices
0.2
0
-0.7
2
1.8
1.1
1.8
1.7
1.2
1.6
2.1
-1.4
1.5
4.6
1
-0.4
2
-0.5
-1
-0.6
-0.9
-1
-2.6
-3.4
-1.5
-3.7
-4.6
-3.1
-2.8
-2.2
-2.2
-2.3
-2.3
Chart 3.15: Level of business investment
Quarters from peak in output 2009-09 recession 1990s recession December 2012 forecast
0
100
100
1
99.4
98.1
2
97.2
96.8
3
93.8
94.9
4
89.5
91
5
84.6
86.8
6
80.8
89
7
79.1
89.5
8
85.5
87.6
9
80.6
87.4
10
83.5
83.6
11
83
85.6
12
81.2
82.7
13
85
82.7
14
86.9
84.4
15
89.2
86.1
16
86.8
85.6
17
87.6
88.6
87.6
18
91.5
90.8
19
89.7
90.2
20
92.9
91.2
21
97.5
92.4
22
99
93.8
23
102
95.5
24
105
97.4
25
106.1
99.6
26
105.7
102
27
110
104.4
28
114.2
106.9
29
116.2
109.7
30
120.8
112.4
31
128
115.3
32
133.9
118
33
138.1
120.9
34
142.5
123.7
35
140
126.6
36
135.7
129.5
37
140.3
132.4
38
138.6
135.4
39
137
138.6
40
142.9
142
Chart 3.16: Investment intentions and uncertainty about demand
Years
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
CBI uncertainty about demand CBI investment intentions

0
-0.7
0.8
-1.2
1.6
-2
2.1
-2.3
1.9
-2.3
1.3
-1.2
0.6
-0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0
0.6
0.2
0.8
0.1
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.6
0
0.9
-0.3
0.7
0.3
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.8
0.1
Chart B: Government consumption deflator (annual growth)
Years Government consumption deflator Directly measured

2000
3.9
2.9
2001
4.2
3.2
2002
5
4.4
2003
5.1
3.9
2004
4.5
3.2
2005
4.8
3.7
2006
4.8
3.6
2007
2.9
2.1
2008
5.2
4.1
2009
3.1
1.7
2010
1.8
1.1
2011
0.4
0.2
Indirectly measured
0.7
1
0.5
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.2
0.8
1.1
1.4
0.8
0.2
Chart 3.17: World GDP growth and PMI indicator
Years
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
PMI
55
55
57
56
58
56
54
50
51
49
39
40
45
51
53
55
57
54
55
57
52
52
52
55
51.6
51.7
51.3
World GDP
5.2
5.1
4.9
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.2
4.6
3.8
2.6
-0.7
-2.9
-2.2
-0.9
2.2
5.4
5.4
5.0
4.8
4.4
3.9
3.7
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9
Chart 3.18: UK exports and export markets
Years UK export markets UK export volumes

2008Q1
100
100
2008Q2
100.1
101.4
2008Q3
99.7
100.2
2008Q4
94
96.7
2009Q1
85.7
90.9
2009Q2
84.8
89.9
2009Q3
88.2
91.2
2009Q4
90.7
93.6
2010Q1
93.5
93.2
2010Q2
97.5
96.9
2010Q3
99.7
97.8
2010Q4
101.2
101
2011Q1
102.9
102.6
2011Q2
103.3
100.3
2011Q3
104.6
100.3
2011Q4
104.5
103.3
2012Q1
105.2
101.7
2012Q2
106.3
100.6
2012Q3
107
102.3
Chart 3.19: Contributions to import-weighted domestic demand growth

and UK import growth
10
Forecast
5
-5
-10
-15
2007
2008
2009
2010
Private consumption
Stocks
2011
2012
2013
2014
Government consumption
Exports
2015
2016
2017
Investment
Imports
Source: ONS, OBR
Years Private Consumption

2007
1.3
2008
-0.8
2009
-1.5
2010
0.7
2011
-0.4
2012
0.3
2013
0.4
2014
0.7
2015
0.8
2016
1.1
2017
1.3
Exports
-1.8
0.4
-2.7
2.3
1.5
0.3
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.7
Investment Stocks
1.2
0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-2.1
-1.8
0.5
1.6
-0.3
0.5
0.1
-1
0.3
0.4
1.1
0
1.2
-0.1
1.3
1.4
Government Consumption
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
Imports
-1.7
-1.8
-11
8
0.5
2.4
2.5
3.9
4.5
4.9
5.1
Chart 3.20: Current account balance as a share of GDP

3
Forecast
Per cent
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2000
2002
2004
Transfers and other
2006
2008
Trade balance
2010
2012
Net investment income
2014
2016
Current balance
Source: ONS, OBR
Years
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Current balance
-2.9
-2.3
-2.1
-1.7
-2.1
-2.1
-2.9
-2.3
-1
-1.3
-2.5
-1.9
-4
-2.6
-2.3
-2
-1.6
-1.4
Transfers and other

-1
-0.6
-0.8
-0.9
-0.9
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1.1
-1.4
-1.5
-1.5
-1.6
-1.5
-1.5
-1.4
-1.4
Trade balance Net investment income

-1.8
0
-2.3
0.6
-2.7
1.5
-2.3
1.4
-2.7
1.5
-2.8
1.7
-2.6
0.7
-2.7
1.4
-2.3
2.3
-1.5
1.3
-2.1
1
-1.6
1.1
-2.2
-0.3
-1.8
0.8
-1.6
0.9
-1.3
0.9
-1.1
0.9
-1
1
Chart 3.21: CPI inflation forecast
Years
1997Q1
1997Q2
1997Q3
1997Q4
1998Q1
1998Q2
1998Q3
1998Q4
1999Q1
1999Q2
1999Q3
1999Q4
2000Q1
2000Q2
2000Q3
2000Q4
2001Q1
2001Q2
2001Q3
2001Q4
2002Q1
2002Q2
2002Q3
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
Annual CPI rate

1.9
1.6
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.1
0.8
0.6
0.8
1
0.9
1.5
1.5
1
1.5
0.9
1
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.7
2
2.4
2.1
1.9
2.3
2.4
2.7
2.9
2.6
1.8
2.1
2.4
3.4
4.8
3.9
3
2.1
1.5
2.1
3.3
3.5
3.1
3.4
4.1
4.4
4.7
4.6
3.5
2.8
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Chart 3.22: Unemployment levels
Years
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
ILO unemployment Claimant count

2053
1648
2530
2268
2822
2742
2929
2877
2676
2599
2436
2290
2296
2088
1988
1585
1788
1348
1727
1248
1587
1088
1489
970
1529
947
1490
933
1426
853
1467
862
1674
945
1654
865
1783
906
2390
1528
2476
1496
2564
1534
2560
1590
2639
1660
2671
1688
2607
1628
2484
1531
2326
1429
Table 3.4: Comparison of External Forecasts
2011
OBR (December 2012)
GDP growth
0.9
CPI inflation
4.5
Output gap
-2.7
IMF (October 2012)
GDP growth
0.8
CPI inflation
4.5
Output gap
-2.6
OECD (November 2012)
GDP growth
0.9
CPI inflation
4.5
Output gap
-1.4
EC (November 2012)
GDP growth
0.9
CPI inflation
4.5
Output gap
NIESR (October 2012)
GDP growth
0.9
CPI inflation
4.5
Output gap
Bank of England (November 2012)
GDP growth (mode)
CPI inflation (mode)
Oxford Economics (November 2012)
GDP growth
0.9
CPI inflation
4.5
Output gap
-3.6
2012
2013
Per cent
2014
2015
2016
2017
-0.1
2.8
-3.1
1.2
2.5
-3.5
2.0
2.2
-3.3
2.3
2.0
-3.0
2.7
2.0
-2.5
2.8
2.0
-1.9
-0.4
2.7
-4.2
1.1
1.9
-4.4
2.2
1.7
-3.6
2.6
1.8
-2.7
2.6
1.8
-2.1
2.7
1.9
-1.4
-0.1
2.6
-2.2
0.9
1.9
-2.3
1.6
1.8
-2.0
-0.3
2.7
0.9
2.1
2.0
1.9
-0.1
2.7
1.1
2.0
1.7
1.6
2.1
1.6
2.3
1.7
2.3
1.9
0.2
2.8
1.2
2.5
2.0
2.0
2.1
1.8
-0.1
2.8
-5.1
1.2
2.4
-5.3
2.3
1.7
-4.8
2.4
1.6
-4.4
2.5
1.6
-4.0
2.6
1.8
-3.7
Output gap not published.

Mode forecast based on market interest rates and the Bank of England's 'backcast' for GDP growth.
Table 3.5: Detailed summary of forecast

Outturn
Forecast
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
UK economy
0.9
100.0
3.6
Nominal GDP
Output Gap (per cent of potential output)
- 2.7
Domestic demand
-0.4
Household consumption
-0.9
0.2
Fixed investment
-2.4
Business
2.9
General government
-20.4
Private dwellings
0.3
Change in inventories3
0.3
Exports of goods and services
4.5
Imports of goods and services
0.5
Balance of payments current account
Per cent of GDP
-1.9
Inflation
CPI
RPI
GDP deflator at market prices
Labour market
Wages and salaries
Average earnings4
- 0.1
1.2
2.0
2.3
2.7
2.8
99.9 101.1 103.2 105.6 108.4 111.4
2.2
3.3
4.1
4.4
4.7
4.9
- 3.1
- 3.5
- 3.3
- 3.0
- 2.5
- 1.9
0.5
0.5
2.4
1.0
3.8
-9.2
2.4
-0.6
0.1
2.1
0.9
0.9
-0.7
2.1
4.9
-2.5
-1.1
0.2
3.1
2.1
1.9
1.6
-1.4
8.1
8.1
4.8
9.5
0.0
4.5
3.9
2.1
1.8
-1.2
8.5
10.2
-3.0
10.0
0.0
5.1
4.5
2.5
2.4
-2.1
8.7
10.1
-2.6
10.0
0.0
5.5
4.9
2.7
2.9
-3.0
8.7
9.5
0.7
9.7
0.0
5.4
5.0
-4.0
-2.6
-2.3
-2.0
-1.6
-1.4
4.5
5.2
2.7
2.8
3.2
2.3
2.5
3.0
2.0
2.2
2.6
2.0
2.0
3.1
2.0
2.0
3.4
2.0
2.0
3.7
2.0
29.2
2.5
2.2
8.1
1.50
29.5
3.3
2.7
8.0
1.60
29.6
2.7
2.2
8.2
1.70
29.7
3.2
2.8
8.2
1.70
29.9
4.5
3.7
8.0
1.60
30.2
4.8
4.0
7.6
1.50
30.4
4.9
4.0
7.1
1.40
2.1
7.1
1.4
0.4
6.2
0.7
0.8
5.5
2.5
1.6
5.5
3.8
2.0
5.4
4.0
2.3
5.0
4.0
3.2
-0.4
3.0
2.7
3.5
0.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
1.1
5.9
5.5
4.5
1.4
6.3
5.8
4.6
1.7
6.5
6.0
4.7
1.9
6.6
6.1
Household sector
Real household disposable income
-1.5
Saving ratio (level, per cent)
6.0
House prices
-1.0
World economy
World GDP at purchasing power parity 3.9
1.5
Euro Area GDP
5.8
World trade in goods and services
5
6.0
UK export markets
Includes households and non-profit institutions serving households

2
Includes transfer costs of non-produced assets
Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

Wages and salaries divided by employees
Other countries' imports of goods and services weighted according to the importance of those
countries in the UK's total exports
5
Table 3.6: Detailed summary of changes to forecast

Outturn
Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
UK economy
Nominal GDP
Output Gap (per cent of potential output)
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.0
-0.9
-0.9
-1.1
-0.4
-0.8
-1.7
-1.3
-0.9
-0.7
-2.4
-1.1
-1.2
-0.7
-3.2
-1.2
-1.7
-0.4
-3.7
-0.9
-2.0
0.2
0.0
1.8
1.3
3.1
-4.2
2.2
-0.5
-2.8
0.6
-0.6
-0.5
0.4
-4.1
-1.5
1.1
-11.6
0.2
-2.2
-1.7
-0.5
-0.8
0.7
-0.5
-0.7
4.7
-2.1
0.0
-1.2
-0.8
-0.7
-1.2
1.6
-0.4
-0.1
-3.3
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.6
0.5
0.0
0.0
-1.2
0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.0
-2.3
-1.3
-1.1
-1.1
-1.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.6
0.6
-0.5
0.2
0.1
-0.5
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
0.0
-0.6
-0.5
0.0
1.1
1.0
0.0
2
0.4
1.3
0.1
-0.7
-62
0.4
-0.8
-0.9
-0.4
22
0.3
-1.9
-1.6
0.2
166
0.2
-1.1
-0.7
0.8
275
0.2
-0.8
-0.6
1.3
340
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
1.9
0.6
1.9
-0.1
0.3
0.6
-1.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.8
0.3
-0.7
-0.6
0.4
-0.5
0.1
0.0
-0.5
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-1.1
-1.0
-0.7
-1.1
-2.0
-1.9
-0.5
-0.6
-0.9
-0.8
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
0.0
-0.5
-0.3

Domestic demand
0.3
0.0
-0.1
Fixed investment
-0.7
Business
2.7
General government2
-7.3
Private dwellings2
-2.1
Change in inventories3
0.4
Exports of goods and services
-0.3
Imports of goods and services
-0.2
Balance of payments current account
Per cent of GDP
0.6
Inflation
CPI
RPI
GDP deflator at market prices
Labour market
Wages and salaries
Average earnings4
Claimant count (thousands)
Household sector
Real household disposable income
Saving ratio (level, per cent)
House prices
World economy
World GDP at purchasing power parity
Euro Area GDP
World trade in goods and services
UK export markets5
1
Includes households and non-profit institutions serving households
Includes transfer costs of non-produced assets, which were excluded in previous forecasts
Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

Wages and salaries divided by employees
Other countries' imports of goods and services weighted according to the importance of those countries in
the UK's total exports
5
Table 4.1: Determinants of the fiscal forecast

Percentage change on previous year unless otherwise specified
Outturn
Forecast
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
GDP and its components

Real GDP
0.5
1529
Nominal GDP ( billion)1
1
3.3
Nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (centred end-March)
2.5
2
2.4
Wages and salaries
2,3
Non-oil PNFC profits
7.7
2,3
Non-oil PNFC net taxable income
9.4
2,3
3.7
Consumer spending
Prices and earnings
GDP deflator
2.4
RPI (September)
5.6
CPI (September)
5.2
Whole economy earnings growth
2.6
Key fiscal determinants
4
1.57
29.2
VAT gap (per cent)
9.7
Financial and property sectors
Equity prices (FTSE All-share index) 2903
-5.0
HMRC financial sector profits1,3,5
Financial sector net taxable income 3.2
Residential property prices6
-0.9
Residential property
914
transactions (thousands)
4.4
Commercial property prices7
Commercial property transactions
-2.8
Volume of share transactions
-10.2
Oil and gas
0.0
Oil prices ($ per barrel)3
111
69.2
Oil prices ( per barrel)3
Gas prices (p/therm)
60.6
Oil production (million tonnes)3,8
51.9
Gas production (billion therms)3,8
16.1
Interest rates and exchange rates
0.0
Market short-term interest rates
1.0
9
(per cent)
Market gilt rates (per cent)10
2.2
Euro/Sterling exchange rate
1.16
0.1
1564
2.3
2.7
3.7
2.0
3.6
3.7
1.5
1620
3.6
4.1
2.5
5.1
4.7
3.8
2.1
1689
4.2
4.3
3.5
7.9
6.5
3.7
2.4
1763
4.4
4.6
4.6
7.8
5.8
3.9
2.7
1848
4.8
4.9
4.8
8.8
7.0
4.5
2.8
1939
4.9
4.9
4.9
7.5
5.4
4.9
2.5
2.6
2.2
2.6
2.0
3.1
2.6
2.2
2.0
2.7
2.2
3.0
2.0
3.1
2.0
3.9
2.0
3.4
2.0
4.0
2.0
3.7
2.0
4.0
1.60
29.6
10.5
1.68
29.6
10.6
1.68
29.8
10.6
1.61
30.0
10.6
1.50
30.2
10.6
1.40
30.5
10.6
2979
2.0
-2.4
1.7
3102
2.5
6.7
0.7
3231
2.5
5.6
3.0
3377
2.5
3.6
3.8
3538
4.1
6.0
4.0
3711
4.9
5.6
4.0
945
1116
1225
1311
1388
1456
-2.1
-2.1
-9.9
0.0
112
70.7
57.8
45.6
14.2
0.0
1.0
-4.4
1.4
0.0
106
66.9
55.9
45.1
14.2
0.0
3.1
1.2
0.0
0.0
102
63.7
53.2
44.7
14.0
0.0
3.6
2.8
0.0
0.0
98
61.0
50.8
44.4
13.9
0.0
3.9
4.4
0.0
0.0
95
59.1
48.9
44.1
13.8
0.0
3.5
5.2
0.0
0
92
57.4
47.4
43.8
13.7
0
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.7
1.7
1.25
2.3
1.25
2.6
1.25
2.9
1.26
3.1
1.25
3.4
1.25
Not seasonally adjusted
Nominal
Calendar year
UK seasonally-adjusted claimant count
HMRC Gross Case 1 trading profits
Outturn data from Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) property prices index
Outturn data from HMRC information on stamp duty land tax
Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) forecasts from 2012 available at www.og.decc.gov.uk
3-month sterling interbank rate (LIBOR)
10
Weighted average interest rate on conventional gilts
Table 4.2: Changes to determinants since March forecast

Percentage change on previous year unless otherwise specified
Outturn
Forecast
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
GDP and its components

Real GDP
Nominal GDP ( billion)1
Nominal GDP1
Nominal GDP (centred end-March)
Wages and salaries2
Non-oil PNFC profits2,3
Non-oil PNFC net taxable income2,3
Consumer spending2,3
Prices and earnings
GDP deflator
RPI (September)
CPI (September)
Whole economy earnings growth
Key fiscal determinants
Claimant count (millions)4
VAT gap (per cent)
Financial and property sectors
Equity prices (FTSE All-share
index)
HMRC financial sector profits1,3,5
Financial sector net taxable income
Residential property prices6
Residential property transactions
(thousands)
Commercial property prices7
Commercial property transactions
Oil and gas
Oil prices ($ per barrel)3
Oil prices ( per barrel)3
Gas prices (p/therm)
Oil production (million tonnes)3,8
Gas production (billion therms)3,8
Interest rates and exchange rates
Market short-term interest rates
(per cent)9
Market gilt rates (per cent)10
Euro/Sterling exchange rate
0.0
8
0.4
-0.8
0.7
-4.2
-5.5
0.5
-0.9
-12
-1.3
-1.6
1.5
-2.7
-3.2
-0.1
-0.8
-32
-1.2
-1.0
-1.6
-1.7
-2.5
-0.2
-0.7
-52
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.6
-0.8
-1.0
-0.7
-75
-1.2
-1.0
-1.0
-1.6
-1.0
-1.7
-0.3
-93
-0.7
-0.5
-0.8
-0.5
0.5
-1.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.5
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
0.2
-0.5
0.7
0.7
-1.3
-0.5
0.0
0.3
-1.3
-0.5
-0.6
0.0
-0.6
-0.5
-0.6
0.0
-0.6
-0.01
0.0
0.0
-0.07
0.5
1.2
0.07
0.4
1.3
0.19
0.3
1.3
0.30
0.2
1.3
0.34
0.2
1.3
-14
-159
-188
-234
-285
-328
5.0
9.2
-0.2
-1.7
-4.8
2.4
-4.3
-1.5
0.2
-2.9
-1.5
-0.4
-1.5
-3.4
-0.7
0.7
-0.5
-0.5
22
66
71
18
15
12
1.5
0.5
5.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-3.0
-1.3
-12.3
0.0
-5.9
-3.7
-5.6
-2.7
-1.9
0.0
-3.5
-6.2
-0.9
0.0
-5.3
-3.3
-7.7
-2.6
-1.7
0.0
-2.4
-3.5
-2.8
0.0
-3.3
-2.2
-6.4
-2.5
-1.6
0.0
-1.5
-3.0
-3.1
0.0
-1.9
-1.5
-5.4
-2.2
-1.7
0.0
-0.2
-1.5
-3.0
0.0
-0.8
-0.8
-4.7
-0.6
-1.1
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.8
-1.1
0.0
0.00
-0.5
0.07
-0.6
0.07
-0.6
0.07
-0.6
0.09
-0.6
0.08
Not seasonally adjusted
Nominal
Calendar year
UK seasonally-adjusted claimant count
HMRC Gross Case 1 trading profits
Outturn data from Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) property prices index
Outturn data from HMRC information on stamp duty land tax
Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) forecasts available at www.og.decc.gov.uk
3-month sterling interbank rate (LIBOR)
10
Weighted average interest rate on conventional gilts
Table 4.3: Summary of the impact of policy measures
Effect of receipts measures

of which:
Income tax and NICs
Onshore corporation tax
Fuel duty
Bank levy
UK-Swiss Tax
Other
Effect of expenditure measures1
of which:
Current DEL
Current AME
Capital DEL
Capital AME
billion
Forecast
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
-0.9
0.2
-2.4
-0.9
0.3
0.3
Total direct effect of policy

measures on PSNB
Total direct effect of policy
measures
Inclusion
of on
APFcurrent
transfers2
balance
Financial transactions
of which:
Lending by UK Export Finance
Business Bank
0.1
-0.3
-0.9
0.0
0.3
-0.1
4.8
-0.6
-0.6
-1.6
0.5
3.1
-0.7
-1.1
-0.5
-0.9
-1.6
0.5
0.6
-0.6
1.5
1.2
-0.9
-1.7
0.5
0.9
-0.9
0.0
1.9
-0.7
-1.4
0.5
0.2
-0.2
0.0
1.9
-0.6
-1.5
0.5
0.2
-0.2
4.6
1.4
0.0
3.5
0.0
0.7
0.4
-2.2
0.0
2.6
1.8
-2.9
0.0
-3.6
3.6
0.1
-0.1
-4.2
4.2
0.3
-0.3
0.1
4.6
0.4
-0.4
4.0
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
0.3
4.9
0.5
11.5
0.0
1.3
12.3
-0.5
2.0
10.6
-0.9
-0.9
8.0
-0.6
0.3
6.6
-0.1
4.9
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
0.1
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
Expenditure categories are equivalent to PSCE in RDEL, PSCE in AME, PSGI in CDEL and PSGI in AME in Table
4.18
2
This is not shown in the Treasury's policy decisions table
1
Note: This uses the Treasury scorecard convention that a positive figure means an improvement in the PSNB,
CGNCR and PSND
Table 4.4: Projected APF flows and the impact on the fiscal forecast
billion
up to12-13 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23
Income
14.0 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.0 11.7
9.0
6.5
4.2
2.2
0.3
Interest payments
-2.0 -1.9 -1.9 -2.6 -3.9 -4.7 -4.6 -4.0 -2.9 -1.6 -0.2
Redemptions
-0.5 -0.3 -2.0 -4.0 -1.6 -4.2 -2.1 -2.0 -0.3 -2.6
0.0
Sales
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 -1.8 -3.2 -3.8 -4.4 -4.9 -4.6 -2.0
Net flow
23.8 11.5 12.3 10.6
8.0
6.6 -0.3 -1.6 -3.8 -3.9 -6.6 -2.0
Cumulative flow
23.8 35.3 47.5 58.2 66.2 72.8 72.5 70.9 67.1 63.2 56.6 54.7
Receipts
Capital spending
Net borrowing
Current budget
Net cash requirement1
8.0
0.0
-8.0
8.0
-8.6
-63
6.6
0.0
-6.6
6.6
-8.1
-71
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
-2.7
-74
0.0
1.6
1.6
0.0
0.8
-73
0.0
3.8
3.8
0.0
4.1
-69
0.0
3.9
3.9
0.0
4.5
-64
0.0
6.6
6.6
0.0
6.2
-58
0.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
3.6
-55
-1.6
-1.9
-2.3
-2.3
-2.3
-2.1
-1.9
-0.6
Memo: Per cent of GDP:

Net borrowing
-0.7
-0.8
-0.6
-0.5
Current budget
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.5
Net debt
-0.7
-2.6
-3.2
-3.5
Memo: Fiscal aggregates excluding APF (per cent of GDP):
-0.4
0.4
-3.8
0.0
0.0
-3.7
0.1
0.0
-3.5
0.2
0.0
-3.1
0.2
0.0
-2.8
0.3
0.0
-2.4
0.1
0.0
-2.2
Memo: Illustrative effect

on debt interest payments
Net borrowing
Current budget
Net debt
11.5 12.3 10.6

0.0
0.0
0.0
-11.5 -12.3 -10.6
11.5 12.3 10.6
-11.5 -32.0 -11.1
-11
-43
-55
0.0
-0.5
-1.2
5.9
6.9
5.8
4.6
3.0
1.6
-6.4
75.4
-5.3
79.4
-4.3
82.1
-3.3
83.4
-1.8
82.9
-0.4
81.0
As payments will usually be made in the following quarter to the one they relate to, the effects on the net
cash requirement and net debt will occur with a small lag.
1
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0
-0.3
-0.6
-0.9
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2012-13
Source: O BR
Years
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2014-15
2016-17
2018-19
5 billion per quarter
2020-21
2022-23
2024-25
10 billion per quarter (central)
2026-27
Net Debt (%GDP)

Net Debt (%GDP)
5 billion per quarter10 billion per quarter (central)
-0.7
-0.7
-2.7
-2.7
-3.2
-3.2
-3.6
-3.6
-3.9
-3.9
-3.9
-3.8
-3.8
-3.6
-3.6
-3.2
-3.3
-2.9
-2.9
-2.5
-2.7
-2.2
-2.5
-2.3
-2
-1.9
Net Debt (%GDP)

-0.7
-2.7
-3.2
-3.6
-3.8
-3.7
-3.4
-2.9
-2.4
-2.3
Net Debt (%GDP)

Net Borrowing (%GDP)
25 billion per quarter 5 billion per quarter 10 billion per quarter (central)
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-2.7
-0.8
-0.8
-3.2
-0.6
-0.6
-3.6
-0.5
-0.5
-3.8
-0.4
-0.4
-3.4
-0.1
0
-2.9
0
0.1
-2.5
0.1
0.2
0
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
P e rc e n t
Net debt, per cent of GDP
Net borrowing, per cent of GDP
Chart 4.1: APF flows assuming alternative sales levels per quarter

-0.7
-0.8
-0.6
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3

-0.7
-0.8
-0.6
-0.5
-0.2
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0
-0.3
-0.6
-0.9
Chart 4.2: APF flows assuming QE begins to unwind over different periods
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2012-13
Source: O BR
Years
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2014-15
2016-17
1 year earlier
2018-19
2020-21
Mid-2016 (central)
Net Debt
Net Debt (%GDP) (%GDP) 1 year
Mid-2016 (central)
earlier
-0.7
-0.7
-2.7
-2.7
-3.2
-3.2
-3.6
-3.5
-3.9
-3.7
-3.8
-3.5
-3.6
-3.3
-3.2
-2.9
-2.9
-2.6
-2.5
-2.3
-2.2
2022-23
2024-25
2026-27
1 year later
Net Debt
(%GDP) 1 year
later
-0.7
-2.7
-3.2
-3.6
-3.9
-4
-3.8
-3.5
-3.1
-2.7
-2.4
-2.2
Net Borrowing
(%GDP) Mid-2016
(central)
-0.7
-0.8
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.1
Net Borrowing (%GDP) Net Borrowing (%GDP)

1 year earlier
1 year later
-0.7
-0.7
-0.8
-0.8
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.5
-0.2
-0.5
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
Chart 4.3: Flows assuming alternative gilt rate paths
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0
-0.3
-0.6
-0.9
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2012-13
Source: O BR
Years
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2014-15
2016-17
2018-19
N o shock (central)
Net debt (%GDP)

No shock
(central)
-0.7
-2.7
-3.2
-3.6
-3.9
-3.8
-3.6
-3.2
-2.9
-2.5
-2.2
2020-21
2022-23
2024-25
2026-27
200 basis points shock
Net Debt (%GDP)

200 basis points shock
No shock (central)
-0.7
-0.7
-2.7
-0.8
-3.2
-0.6
-3.6
-0.5
-3.7
-0.4
-3.3
0
-2.7
0.1
-2.1
0.2
-1.4
0.2
-0.8
0.3
-0.7
0.1
Net Borrowing
(%GDP) 200 basis
points shock
-0.7
-0.8
-0.6
-0.5
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
Table A: The effect of cancelling intra-sector flows

billion
2012-13
Receipts
C urrent expenditure
Net investment
C urrent budget
Public sector net cash
requirement
Public sector net debt
Memo: PSND as a per cent of GDP
-0.7
0.1
0.0
0.7
-0.7
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.6
-0.6
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
-0.5
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.6
-0.6
-0.8
0.0
0.0
0.8
-0.8
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.6
-0.6
3.8
3.6
4.0
3.9
3.3
5.2
43
2.7
40
2.4
37
2.1
33
1.8
31
1.6
26
1.3
Table A: The effect of cancelling intra-sector flows

billion
Table B: Additional effects on the forecast

billion
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
Receipts
2.8
Current expenditure
1.1
Net investment
0.6
-1.1
Current budget
1.7
-1.2
requirement
25
Memo: PSND as a per cent of GDP 1.6
2.5
0.7
0.7
-1.1
1.8
2.4
0.8
0.6
-1.0
1.6
3.0
1.1
0.5
-1.4
1.9
3.5
1.2
0.4
-1.9
2.3
3.3
1.1
0.4
-1.8
2.2
-1.1
-1.0
-1.4
-1.9
-1.8
22
1.3
20
1.1
16
0.9
11
0.6
8
0.4
Table C: Overall effect on the fiscal forecast

billion
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
Receipts
2.1
Current expenditure
1.1
Net investment
0.6
-0.4
Current budget
1.0
2.6
requirement
68
Memo: PSND as a per cent of GDP 4.3
1.9
0.7
0.7
-0.5
1.2
1.9
0.8
0.6
-0.4
1.1
2.4
1.1
0.5
-0.8
1.3
2.8
1.2
0.4
-1.1
1.5
2.8
1.1
0.4
-1.3
1.6
2.5
3.0
2.5
1.5
3.3
62
3.8
56
3.3
50
2.7
42
2.2
34
1.7
Table 4.5: Major taxes as a percentage of GDP
Per cent of GDP

Forecast
Outturn
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Income tax and NICs

Value added tax
Onshore corporation tax
UK oil and gas receipts
Fuel duties
Business rates
Council tax
Excise duties
Capital taxes
Other taxes
National Accounts taxes
Interest and dividend receipts
Other receipts
Current receipts
16.6
6.4
2.2
0.7
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.3
1.1
2.5
35.9
0.2
1.1
37.3
16.5
6.5
2.2
0.5
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.3
1.0
2.7
35.6
1.1
1.2
38.0
16.6
6.4
2.1
0.4
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.2
1.1
3.0
35.9
1.2
1.2
38.3
16.8
6.4
2.0
0.4
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.2
1.2
2.8
35.8
1.1
1.2
38.1
16.9
6.4
2.0
0.3
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.2
1.3
2.9
35.9
1.0
1.2
38.1
17.2
6.3
2.1
0.3
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.2
1.3
2.9
36.0
1.0
1.2
38.2
2017-18
17.4
6.3
2.0
0.2
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.2
1.4
2.8
36.0
0.7
1.2
37.9
Table 4.6: Current Receipts

billion
Forecast
Outturn
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Income tax (gross of tax credits) 152.7 154.0 161.6 172.0 181.5 193.9 206.5
of which:Pay as you earn
132.1 132.2 137.1 142.2 152.5 162.9 173.8
Self assessment
20.3
22.6
23.8
29.4
28.9
30.6
32.2
Tax credits (negative income tax) -4.7
-3.9
-3.8
-3.2
-1.8
-0.8
-0.1
National insurance contributions 101.6 104.1 107.8 111.1 117.0 123.5 130.3
Value added tax
98.1 101.1 104.1 108.3 112.5 116.8 121.5
2
Corporation tax
43.1
39.8
38.9
38.7
38.7
41.2
42.8
of which:Onshore
33.8
34.7
34.3
34.5
35.6
38.0
39.7
Offshore
9.2
5.2
4.6
4.3
3.2
3.1
3.1
Corporation tax credits3
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.7
-0.8
Petroleum revenue tax
2.0
2.2
2.1
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.4
Fuel duties
26.8
26.2
26.5
27.1
27.8
29.0
29.9
Business rates
25.0
25.7
26.8
28.2
29.6
30.6
31.2
Council tax
26.0
26.3
27.2
28.0
28.8
29.8
30.7
VAT refunds
14.0
14.0
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.4
14.2
Capital gains tax
4.3
3.7
4.6
5.4
6.0
6.7
7.4
Inheritance tax
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.8
4.0
Stamp duty land tax
6.1
6.5
7.5
8.6
9.7
10.9
12.2
Stamp taxes on shares
2.8
2.4
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
Tobacco duties
9.9
9.8
9.9
10.0
10.2
10.3
10.6
Spirits duties
2.9
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.5
Wine duties
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.9
4.3
4.6
5.0
Beer and cider duties
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
Air passenger duty
2.6
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.6
3.9
Insurance premium tax
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
Climate Change Levy
0.7
0.7
1.4
1.8
2.4
2.4
2.4
4
Other HMRC taxes
5.9
6.0
6.4
6.7
7.1
7.3
7.5
Vehicle excise duties
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.6
Bank levy
1.8
1.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
Licence fee receipts
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
Environmental levies
0.5
2.0
2.3
2.8
3.3
3.8
4.2
Swiss capital tax
0.0
0.3
2.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
EU ETS Auction Receipts
0.0
0.4
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
Other taxes
5.9
6.7
6.9
7.1
6.9
6.8
6.7
549.3 557.2 581.6 604.2 632.6 665.7 698.3
1
Less own resources

contribution to EU budget
Interest and dividends
Gross operating surplus
Other receipts
Current receipts
-5.2
-5.3
-5.2
-5.5
-5.7
-5.9
-6.1
2.9
17.6
18.9
17.9
17.1
18.0
13.1
23.5
25.2
26.2
27.4
28.4
29.4
30.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.9
-0.9
-1.0
-1.1
-1.1
569.5 593.8 620.6 643.0 671.4 706.1 734.2
Memo:
UK oil and gas revenues5
11.3
7.3
6.7
6.0
4.9
4.6
Includes PAYE and Self Assessment and also includes tax on savings income and other minor components
National Accounts measure, gross of enhanced and payable tax credits
Includes enhanced company tax credits
Consists of landfill tax, aggregates levy, betting and gaming duties and customs duties and levies
Consists of offshore corporation tax and petroleum revenue tax
Note: Table is on accruals basis in line with national accounts definitions

Table 2.8 in the supplementary table presents receipts on a cash basis
4.4
Table 4.7: Changes to current receipts since March

billion
Forecast
Outturn
Income tax (gross of tax credits)1
of which:Pay as you earn
Self assessment
Tax credits (negative income tax)
National insurance contributions
Value added tax
Corporation tax2
of which:Onshore
Offshore
Corporation tax credits3
Fuel duties
Business rates
Council tax
VAT refunds
Capital gains tax
Inheritance tax
Stamp duty land tax
Stamp taxes on shares
Tobacco duties
Spirits duties
Wine duties
Beer and cider duties
Air passenger duty
Insurance premium tax
Climate Change levy
Other HMRC taxes4
Vehicle excise duties
Bank levy
Licence fee receipts
Swiss capital tax
EU ETS Auction Receipts
Other taxes
Less own resources contribution
to
EU budget
Interest and dividends
Gross operating surplus
Other receipts
Current receipts
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.4
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.1
0.5
0.0
-0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
-1.2
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
-1.3
-0.8
-0.4
0.3
0.3
-1.4
-0.9
-4.9
-2.1
-2.8
0.1
0.6
-1.1
-0.4
-0.1
-0.7
-0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.6
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.5
0.0
-0.4
0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-11.6
-3.5
-4.1
0.9
0.4
-3.5
-2.0
-6.0
-3.0
-2.9
0.1
0.6
-1.6
-1.1
-0.7
-0.1
-0.3
0.3
0.1
-0.5
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.4
2.9
-0.7
-0.3
-17.1
-7.3
-7.8
0.9
1.1
-6.3
-2.8
-7.0
-4.5
-2.6
0.1
0.3
-1.8
-0.6
-1.0
0.1
-0.3
0.3
-0.1
-0.7
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.5
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.5
0.0
-0.7
-0.5
-28.8
-9.0
-9.5
1.2
2.4
-7.9
-3.7
-7.4
-5.7
-1.7
0.1
0.6
-2.3
0.6
-1.3
0.6
-0.5
0.3
-0.1
-0.9
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.4
-0.5
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.7
-0.6
-31.0
-11.5
-11.2
0.4
3.4
-9.4
-4.6
-8.2
-6.8
-1.3
0.1
0.7
-2.3
-0.2
-1.6
0.6
-0.8
0.3
-0.1
-1.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
0.2
-0.6
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.8
-0.6
-37.9
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.0
-0.9
13.0
0.8
0.0
2.3
13.9
0.8
0.0
-1.9
11.7
1.1
0.0
-15.4
8.8
1.1
-0.1
-20.6
7.2
1.1
-0.1
-29.1
Memo:
UK oil and gas revenues5
0.1
-2.2
-2.4
-2.3
-1.1
Includes PAYE and Self Assessment receipts, and also includes tax on savings income and other minor
components
2
National Accounts measure, gross of enhanced and payable tax credits
1
Includes enhanced company tax credits
Consists of landfill tax, aggregates levy, betting and gaming duties and customs duties and levies.
Consists of offshore corporation tax and petroleum revenue tax.
-0.6
Table 4.8: Changes to the receipts forecast since March
2012-13
March forecast
591.5
December forecast
593.8
Total Change in Receipts
2.3
of which:
Income and expenditure
3.4
Wages and salaries
3.5
Non-financial company profits
-0.1
Financial company profits
0.0
Consumer expenditure
0.0
North Sea
-2.7
Production and expenditure
-1.4
Oil and gas prices
-1.3
Market assumptions
0.0
Commercial property market
0.0
Residential property market
0.4
Equity prices
-0.3
-0.3
Interest rates
0.3
Prices
0.3
Other economic determinants
0.6
Other assumptions
1.6
NRAM and B&B
2.1
APF flows
11.5
Corporation tax receipts and modelling -1.8
Latest income tax and NICs receipts
-4.9
Income tax repayments
-1.4
Council tax assumptions
-0.1
Tax credits (Universal Credit switch)
0.0
Public sector gross operating surplus
0.8
Other judgments and modelling
-4.6
Autumn Statement measures
-0.9
2013-14
622.5
620.6
-1.9
billion
Forecast
2014-15
658.4
643.0
-15.4
2015-16
692.0
671.4
-20.6
2016-17
735.3
706.1
-29.1
-2.5
-1.4
-0.8
-0.3
-0.1
-3.2
-2.0
-1.2
-0.5
-0.2
0.5
-0.8
-0.3
0.3
0.7
0.2
3.2
1.9
12.3
-2.0
-5.1
-0.9
-0.7
0.0
0.8
-3.1
0.2
-9.3
-6.8
-1.2
-0.5
-0.9
-2.6
-1.7
-0.9
-1.7
-0.4
0.2
-1.0
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.9
1.9
10.6
-2.8
-5.4
-0.8
-1.0
0.6
1.1
-3.3
-2.4
-14.7
-10.2
-1.7
-0.6
-2.2
-2.5
-1.7
-0.8
-2.8
-0.5
0.2
-1.3
-0.5
-0.7
-0.5
-1.4
2.3
2.4
8.0
-3.5
-5.5
-0.8
-1.3
2.0
1.1
-0.1
-0.9
-19.3
-13.5
-2.0
-0.7
-3.1
-1.9
-1.5
-0.4
-3.9
-0.6
0.1
-1.6
-0.6
-1.2
-0.8
-2.4
-1.1
2.8
6.6
-4.6
-5.6
-0.9
-1.6
3.1
1.1
-2.1
0.3
Table 4.9: Receipts in 2012-13

billion
Outturn
Forecast
Apr-Oct Nov-Mar Full Year
Income tax, NIC and capital

gains tax
Value added tax
Corporation tax
Fuel duties
Inheritance tax
Stamp duties
Tobacco duties
Alcohol duties
Business rates
Council tax
Other
Percentage change on 2011-12

Outturn
Forecast
Apr-Oct Nov-Mar
Full Year
137.5
120.4
257.9
###
2.5
1.4
2.0
58.4
24.9
1.2
15.7
1.9
5.3
5.0
5.7
14.8
15.4
25.8
311.5
42.8
14.9
1.0
10.5
1.2
3.6
4.9
4.4
11.0
10.9
20.1
245.7
101.1
###
39.8
###
###
2.2
26.2
###
###
3.1
###
8.9
###
9.8
10.1
###
25.7
###
26.3
###
46.0
###
557.2
###
2.0
-9.8
6.0
-1.2
7.6
-1.2
-6.1
0.0
1.3
1.5
-2.3
0.4
4.7
2.6
8.9
-3.9
8.7
2.2
6.1
-2.6
5.2
0.8
11.3
2.8
3.1
-5.5
7.3
-2.3
8.0
0.1
-0.4
-1.1
2.9
1.2
3.2
1.4
Table 4.10: Key changes to income tax and NICs receipts since March
billion
Forecast
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
(by economic determinant)
Average earnings
Employee numbers
SA determinants
Other determinants
(by other category)
Latest receipts data
Income tax repayments
High income child benefit charge
Other (including modelling changes)
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
260.4
258.1
-2.3
276.4
269.4
-7.0
296.7
283.1
-13.6
315.4
298.5
-16.9
338.3
317.4
-20.9
0.5
3.0
1.2
0.2
-3.9
2.5
1.7
-0.2
-8.8
2.0
1.4
-1.4
-11.6
1.4
0.4
-2.1
-14.5
1.0
-0.3
-2.3
-4.9
-1.4
0.0
-0.8
0.1
-5.1
-0.9
0.7
-1.2
-0.6
-5.4
-0.8
1.1
-1.2
-0.5
-5.5
-0.8
1.3
-1.1
1.2
-5.6
-0.9
1.3
-1.6
1.9
Table 4.11: Key changes to VAT receipts since March
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
Outturn VAT receipts
VAT debt
SRS of consumer spending
Consumer spending
Other spending
Other (including modelling)
Place of supply policy
Measures
billion
Forecast
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
102.0
106.1
111.1
116.2
121.4
101.1
104.1
108.3
112.5
116.8
-0.9
-2.0
-2.8
-3.7
-4.6
-0.7
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
-0.3
-0.3
0.1
-0.7
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.7
-0.3
-0.5
-0.7
-0.7
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.7
-0.3
-0.1
-1.9
-0.8
0.0
0.3
-0.1
-0.8
-0.3
0.3
-2.9
-1.2
0.0
0.3
-0.1
Table 4.12: Key changes to onshore corporation tax receipts since March
billion
Forecast
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
36.8
37.3
38.9
41.3
44.9
34.7
34.3
34.5
35.6
38.0
-2.1
-3.0
-4.5
-5.7
-6.8
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
Industrial and commercial profits
Financial company profits
Investment
Other economic determinants
Industrial and commercial losses assumption
Receipts outturns and other modelling changes
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.3
-1.5
-0.3
-0.8
-0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.4
-1.5
-0.6
-1.2
-0.3
0.4
0.2
-0.4
-2.3
-0.9
-1.7
-0.4
0.7
0.1
-0.5
-2.9
-0.9
-2.0
-0.5
0.9
0.0
-0.8
-3.8
-0.7
Table 4.13: Key changes to oil and gas revenues since March
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
Oil and gas production
Expenditure
Sterling oil price
Gas price
Outturn data and modelling changes
Measures
2012-13 2013-14
9.6
9.0
7.3
6.7
-2.2
-2.4
-1.1
-0.3
-0.8
-0.6
0.6
0.0
-1.7
-0.3
-0.7
-0.7
1.0
-0.1
billion
Forecast
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
8.3
6.0
5.3
6.0
4.9
4.6
-2.3
-1.1
-0.6
-1.5
-0.2
-0.5
-0.5
0.6
-0.1
-1.5
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1.7
-0.2
-1.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
1.6
-0.1
Chart 4.4: DEL and AME components of TME
Table 4.14: Expenditure as a percentage of GDP

Per cent of GDP
Forecast
Outturn
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Total managed expenditure

of which:
45.2
43.1
44.4
43.3
42.2
40.9
39.5
Public sector current expenditure42.1

Public sector gross investment
3.1
42.3
0.9
41.5
3.0
40.4
2.9
39.5
2.7
38.2
2.6
36.9
2.5
24.6
24.3
23.9
23.0
22.1
21.1
19.9
22.1
21.9
21.6
20.8
20.1
19.0
18.0
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.6
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Total public sector

expenditure that contributes
directly to GDP 1
of which:
General government
consumption
General government gross
fixed capital formation
Public corporations gross
fixed capital formation
1
GDP at market prices
Table 4.15: TME split between DEL and AME

Per cent of GDP
Forecast
Outturn
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
TME in DEL 1,2,3

TME in AME
of which:
Social security 2
Debt interest
Locally-financed current
expenditure 3
Other PSCE in AME
PSGI in AME
23.7
21.5
21.1
22.0
22.2
22.2
21.2
22.1
20.3
22.0
19.1
21.8
17.9
21.6
11.4
3.1
11.7
3.0
11.1
3.0
10.9
3.1
10.7
3.2
10.4
3.3
10.1
3.5
1.4
1.5
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
4.7
0.9
5.1
0.7
5.0
0.8
5.1
0.8
5.1
0.8
5.1
0.8
5.1
0.7
In relation to table 4.18, TME in DEL is defined as PSCE in RDEL plus PSGI in CDEL plus SUME, and TME in AME
is defined as PSCE in AME plus PSGI in AME minus SUME. SUME is single use military equipment and is
explained in detail in paragraph 4.165.
1
From 2013-14, TME in RDEL contains grants to local authorities to finance the localised council tax reduction
scheme, which replaces grants to local authorities to finance council tax benefits previously contained within
social security, explained in Box 4.2.
2
From 2013-14, locally-financed current expenditure contains the business rates that local authorities will
retain, and there is an offsetting reduction in the grant in RDEL which distributes business rates to local
authorities, explained in Box 4.2.
3
Table 4.16: Spending real growth rates and as a share of GDP

Spending Review years
2011-12 to 2014-15
Total Average annual
change (%)
Real terms
change (%)
Post Spending Review years
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
Total change
between
2010-11 and
2017-18
Change in
Change in
Change in
-3.0
-0.8
###
-0.2
-0.6
-0.6
-4.4
-1.3
-22.1
8.1
-12.4
-0.3
###
-6.0
###
###
2.0
-3.3
###
0.3
-6.3
1.9
-2.3
-0.6
0.0
1.8
-3.2
-0.6
0.0
2.0
-3.6
-2.3
-26.9
12.1
-17.2
-10.8
-23.5
-2.8
###
-6.5
###
-1.6
-8.6
-3.5
-0.3
-4.1
0.4
-18.8
-30.1
-3.4
-0.8
###
-1.1
-1.4
-1.4
-7.2
-2.4
-1.0
0.7
-4.1
-0.6
###
-0.2
###
###
0.2
-1.0
###
-0.8
-0.2
-0.1
-1.0
-1.3
-0.1
-0.2
-1.2
-1.3
-0.1
-0.2
-1.2
-5.8
-1.4
0.4
-6.2
-3.2
-0.8
-0.8
###
-0.2
###
-0.7
-0.2
-1.1
-0.1
-1.1
0.0
-6.2
-1.1
of which:
PSCE
PSGI
TME in AME
TME in DEL
of which:
PSCE in RDEL
PSGI in CDEL
Percentage of GDP
of which:
PSCE
PSGI
TME in AME
TME in DEL
of which:
PSCE in RDEL
PSGI in CDEL
Table 4.17: Changes to the spending forecast since March

billion
Forecast
March forecast
December forecast
Total change in spending
of which:
Economic determinants
Inflation
Unemployment
State pension uprating
Average earnings
Market assumptions
Gilt rates
Short rates
Other assumptions/changes
Underspend assumptions
CGNCR impact on debt interest
GDP deflator
Inclusion of B&B and NRAM
Reclassifications between current
receipts and AME spending 1
Other
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
683.4
674.3
-9.1
720.0
719.9
-0.1
733.5
731.0
-2.5
744.0
744.7
0.7
756.3
755.1
-1.2
0.4
0.6
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-4.6
-7.5
0.4
1.8
1.5
1.4
0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
-0.7
0.0
-2.0
-4.5
0.2
1.4
0.7
0.0
1.3
-0.4
-0.1
-1.8
-1.4
-0.3
0.0
-3.5
0.5
1.4
-0.8
-1.2
2.0
-1.5
-0.2
-3.0
-2.1
-0.8
4.5
1.3
-1.6
1.6
-1.0
-1.1
2.3
-2.0
-0.1
-3.9
-2.8
-1.1
3.7
2.5
-3.4
1.7
0.3
1.2
1.9
3.3
4.5
0.4
-4.8
-0.4
1.1
-0.3
-1.5
-0.2
0.0
-1.6
0.0
Includes reclassifications from current receipts to AME spending as a result of the introduction of universal
credit, and from AME spending to current receipts of most of the savings from the removal of child benefit from
higher income tax payers.
1
Table 4.18: Total managed expenditure

billion
Outturn
Forecast
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Public sector current expenditure (PSCE)

PSCE in RDEL 1
322.6 322.4 321.1 317.6 318.7 313.7 306.7
PSCE in Annually Managed Expenditure 320.5 338.3 350.8 363.9 378.6 393.2 409.5
of which:
Social security benefits
174.9 182.6 179.8 183.5 187.9 192.3 196.6
Tax credits
27.2
27.8
27.9
28.6
30.5
32.5
34.1
Net public service pension payments
8.0
11.0
11.3
12.8
14.0
15.0
16.3
of which:CG unfunded pension schemes
6.7
9.4
9.7
11.1
12.1
13.1
14.2
LG police and fire pension
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
schemes
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
National lottery current grants
BBC domestic services current expenditure
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.9
Fees associated with financial interventions

Other PSCE items in departmental AME
Expenditure transfers to EU institutions
Locally-financed current expenditure
Central government gross debt interest
Depreciation
Current VAT refunds
Single use military expenditure
Other National Accounts adjustments
-2.0
0.1
5.9
21.6
47.1
16.0
11.8
5.5
0.5
-1.1
-0.6
1.7
7.3
23.2
47.1
17.0
11.7
5.0
1.3
-1.4
-0.3
1.3
6.6
36.0
48.6
17.7
12.5
4.7
1.7
-1.6
-0.2
1.2
7.3
37.8
51.8
18.4
12.5
4.7
2.1
-1.5
0.0
1.2
6.6
39.2
56.6
19.1
12.5
4.7
2.8
-1.4
0.0
1.2
5.8
40.6
61.6
19.8
12.3
4.8
3.6
-1.3
0.0
1.2
6.0
42.7
67.1
20.5
12.0
5.0
4.3
-1.5
Total public sector current expenditure

Public sector gross investment (PSGI)
PSGI in CDEL 1,2
PSGI in Annually Managed Expenditure
of which:
National lottery capital grants
Other PSGI items in departmental AME
Locally-financed capital expenditure
Public corporations capital expenditure
Total public sector gross investment
Less depreciation
Public sector net investment
643.1 660.7 671.9 681.5 697.4 706.9 716.2

34.8
2.3
34.3
36.2
33.8
34.3
35.2
13.0
11.3
13.7
13.3
13.6
13.9
14.1
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
-7.6
-1.5
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.8
1.1
16.0
6.2
4.8
4.9
5.3
5.6
5.4
6.8
7.8
7.3
6.9
6.8
6.9
6.9
-2.5
-1.7
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
47.8 13.7 48.0 49.5 47.3 48.3 49.2
-21.1 -22.2 -23.1 -23.9 -24.7 -25.5 -26.4
26.7
-8.5 24.9 25.6 22.6 22.7 22.9
690.9 674.3 719.9 731.0 744.7 755.1 765.5
1 Implied DEL numbers for 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18. Calculated as the difference between PSCE and
PSCE in AME in the case of PSCE in RDEL, and between PSGI and PSGI in AME in the case of PSGI in CDEL.
### 2012-13 PSGI in CDEL includes 28 billion receipt from the transferral of assets from the Royal Mail pension
fund, which at Budget 2012 was classified as AME.
Table 4.19: Changes to total managed expenditure since March

billion
Outturn
Forecast
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Public sector current expenditure (PSCE)

PSCE in RDEL 1
-0.3
-5.7
-9.1
-11.0
-4.2
-6.6
-3.9
1.7
7.5
6.0
4.2
4.8
0.2
0.3
-0.3
-0.3
0.8
0.4
-0.6
-0.7
-2.8
0.0
-0.9
-0.9
-2.2
0.1
-0.3
-0.3
-5.2
1.4
-0.3
-0.3
-7.1
2.8
-0.4
-0.4
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.2
BBC domestic services current expenditure
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
Fees associated with financial interventions

Other PSCE items in departmental AME
Expenditure transfers to EU institutions
Central government gross debt interest
Depreciation
Current VAT refunds
Single use military expenditure
Total public sector current expenditure
Public sector gross investment (PSGI)
PSGI in CDEL 1,2
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
-4.4
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.5
1.6
-4.2
0.0
0.7
1.5
-3.5
2.4
0.1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.4
1.7
-4.0
0.0
0.7
-0.3
7.9
2.5
0.1
-0.2
-1.0
-0.4
1.5
-1.7
0.0
0.7
-0.5
8.6
-1.4
0.1
0.0
-0.5
-0.4
1.6
-5.0
0.0
0.7
-0.5
9.2
-3.1
0.0
0.5
-0.3
-0.2
1.5
-0.1
0.0
0.7
-0.5
9.5
-2.4
0.0
0.5
-0.3
-0.1
1.6
-1.8
-0.2
-33.4
0.4
1.1
-0.4
-0.6
PSGI in Annually Managed Expenditure

of which:
National lottery capital grants
Other PSGI items in departmental AME
Public corporations capital expenditure
Total public sector gross investment
Less depreciation
Public sector net investment
-1.1
28.3
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.2
-0.1
0.2
2.3
-0.3
-3.2
-1.3
0.1
-1.1
-5.5
-0.1
28.7
1.0
0.8
-2.2
-5.1
0.0
-5.1
-9.1
0.0
0.7
-0.1
0.9
-0.3
1.5
0.0
1.5
-0.1
0.0
0.6
0.1
0.9
-0.3
2.4
0.0
2.4
-2.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
1.0
-0.3
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.7
0.0
0.4
0.0
1.1
-0.3
0.6
0.1
0.7
-1.2
PSCE in Annually Managed Expenditure

of which:
Social security benefits
Tax credits
Net public service pension payments
of which: CG unfunded pension schemes
LG police and fire pension
schemes
National lottery current grants
Implied DEL numbers for 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18. Calculated as the difference between PSCE and
PSCE in AME in the case of PSCE in RDEL, and between PSGI and PSGI in AME in the case of PSGI in CDEL.
2 2012-13 PSGI in CDEL includes 28 billion receipt from the transferral of assets from the Royal Mail pension
fund, which at Budget 2012 was classified as AME.
Table 4.20: Central government spending in 2012-13

Spending in 2012-13
Outturn
Percentage change on 2011-12
Forecast
Outturn
Forecast
Total current expenditure

of which:
Net social benefits
Debt interest
Other
364.5
268.9
633.4
###
2.3
3.0
2.6
111.4
27.1
226.0
80.3
20.0
168.6
191.6
###
47.1
###
394.6
###
5.9
-6.2
1.7
5.1
9.8
1.2
5.6
0.0
1.5
Total net investment
-15.8
10.1
-5.6
###
-217.7
12.3
-125.1
4.6
3.4
8.0
###
4.7
10.0
6.9
353.4
282.4
635.8
###
-5.5
3.3
-1.8
Depreciation
Total central government
expenditure in TME
Large one off receipts for Royal Mail (28 billion) in April 2012 and HRA reform (8.1 billion) in March 2012
distort the net investment comparison above. Removing these receipts gives the following results:
1
Total net investment
12.2
10.1
22.4
###
-8.4
-40.8
-26.6
Table 4.21: Key changes to DEL since March

billion
PSCE in RDEL
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
Switches with AME 1
Other changes to plans
PSGI in CDEL
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
Receipt of Royal Mail pension
funds assets
Other changes to plans
Forecast
Implied DEL
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
2015-16 2016-17
328.1
322.4
-5.7
330.3
321.1
-9.1
328.6
317.6
-11.0
0.0
-4.5
-1.4
0.2
-6.5
-2.0
-0.7
0.1
-7.0
-1.5
-2.6
0.1
35.7
2.3
-33.4
33.9
34.3
0.4
35.1
36.2
1.1
-28.0
-1.7
-3.5
-0.2
-1.5
2.2
-0.3
-1.5
2.9
-0.3
323.0
318.7
-4.2
320.2
313.7
-6.6
34.1
33.8
-0.4
34.9
34.3
-0.6
Switches with AME include business rates retention and council tax benefit, which are explained fully in
Box 4.2, and some smaller switches.
1
Table D: DEL and AME switches for business rates and council tax benefit
billion
Implied DEL
Forecast
2013-14 2014-15
Transfer from DEL to AME for business

rates retention policy
Transfer from AME to DEL for localised
council tax reduction schemes
Net transfer from DEL to AME
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
10.8
11.1
11.4
11.8
12.7
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
6.5
6.8
7.1
7.5
8.4
Table 4.22: Key changes to social security since March

billion
Forecast
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
March forecast
December forecast
Change 1
of which:
CPI
Claimant count unemployment
State pension uprating
Average earnings
Council tax benefit
switch
to DEL
Reclassification
of child
benefit
measure
Revised Universal Credit costing
DLA and AA modelling
Housing benefit modelling
Autumn Statement measures 2
Other
181.8
182.6
0.8
182.6
179.8
-2.8
185.7
183.5
-2.2
193.1
187.9
-5.2
199.3
192.3
-7.1
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.6
0.0
0.3
-0.3
0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-4.3
1.2
-0.4
0.7
-0.1
0.4
0.4
1.3
-0.4
-0.4
-4.3
1.3
-0.5
0.6
-0.8
0.5
0.7
2.0
-1.5
-0.6
-4.3
1.4
-0.9
-0.6
0.5
-2.1
0.2
0.7
2.3
-2.0
-0.8
-4.3
1.4
-0.7
-0.6
0.4
-2.7
-0.8
For 2011-12 to 2014-15, child allowances in income support and jobseekers' allowance have been
included in tax credits and excluded from social security benefits.
1
Autumn Statement measures are shown in annex A and include reductions to all disregards in universal
credit and changes to the uprating of universal credit and other benefits.
2
Table 4.23: Key changes to tax credits since March

billion
Forecast
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
March forecast
December forecast
Change 1, 2
of which:
CPI
Average earnings growth
Revised costing for change in working
hours requirement
2012-13 in-year expenditure estimate
Other
31.6
31.7
0.1
32.1
31.7
-0.4
32.7
31.8
-1.0
33.3
32.3
-1.0
33.9
33.3
-0.6
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
-0.7
0.0
0.4
-0.7
-0.4
0.4
-0.7
-1.4
0.4
-0.7
-1.7
0.2
-0.7
-1.6
0.4
This table shows changes to total tax credits, which are split between current receipts (shown in
table 4.7) and AME current spending (shown in table 4.18). This split is shown below. The large
switch from negative tax to AME spending explained in the paragraph above is worth 0.6bn in 201415, 2.0bn in 2015-16, and 3.1bn in 2016-17.
1
Changes to tax credits treated as AME spending

Changes to tax credits treated as negative tax
0.4
0.0
0.1
1.4
2.8
-0.3
-0.4
-1.1
-2.4
-3.4
For 2011-12 to 2014-15, child allowances in income support and jobseekers' allowance have been
included in tax credits and excluded from social security benefits.
3
Autumn Statement measures are shown in annex A and include changes to the uprating of tax
credits.
2
Table E: Additional costs of universal credit, excluding financial

transactions
billion
Forecast
March forecast
December forecast
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
-0.1
0.1
1.8
1.0
2.5
1.8
2.2
Table 4.24: Key changes to public service pensions since March

billion
Forecast
Net public service pensions
March forecast
December forecast
Change
Expenditure
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
CPI
Other
Income
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
Autumn Statement measure
Other
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
11.6
11.0
-0.6
12.2
11.3
-0.9
13.2
12.8
-0.3
14.3
14.0
-0.3
15.4
15.0
-0.4
35.9
35.2
-0.7
37.7
36.9
-0.8
39.2
38.8
-0.5
41.0
40.5
-0.5
43.0
42.4
-0.6
0.0
-0.7
-0.1
-0.7
0.1
-0.6
0.2
-0.7
0.2
-0.8
-24.3
-24.2
0.1
-25.5
-25.6
-0.1
-26.1
-25.9
0.2
-26.7
-26.5
0.2
-27.5
-27.3
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
Table 4.25: Key changes to locally financed expenditure since March

billion
Forecast
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
March forecast
26.7
28.1
29.2
30.1
31.1
December forecast
23.2
36.0
37.8
39.2
40.6
Change
-3.5
7.9
8.6
9.2
9.5
of which:
Transfer from DEL for business rates
10.8
11.3
11.6
12.0
retention
Council tax increase assumptions
-0.7
-0.9
-1.2
-1.5
Net use of current reserves
-2.7
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
-0.5
Transfers from revenue account to
-1.1
-1.0
-1.2
-1.2
-1.2
finance capital expenditure
Other
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.7
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
Transfers from revenue account to
finance capital expenditure
Adjustment to remove HRA and TTL
net capital spending 1
Other
5.3
6.2
1.0
4.9
4.8
-0.1
4.8
4.9
0.1
5.2
5.3
0.0
5.6
5.6
0.0
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.2
-0.8
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
0.8
-0.3
-0.3
-0.5
-0.6
The net capital spending of these two local authority subsidiary bodies, HRA and TTL (Transport Trading Ltd)
are removed from LASFE and added to public corporations capital spending, reflecting the classification of these
bodies in the National Accounts
1
Table 4.26: Key changes to debt interest since March

billion
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
CGNCR
Gilt rates
Short rates
Inflation
Inclusion of B&B and NRAM
IL uplift methodology change
Other
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
44.8
47.1
2.4
46.1
48.6
2.5
53.2
51.8
-1.4
59.7
56.6
-3.1
64.0
61.6
-2.4
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.6
0.4
1.4
-0.4
0.2
-0.7
0.0
2.0
0.3
0.7
0.0
0.5
-1.4
-0.3
-0.6
0.4
0.3
-0.3
1.3
-2.1
-0.8
-2.3
0.6
0.6
-0.4
2.5
-2.8
-1.1
-2.4
0.7
0.9
-0.3
Table 4.27: Reconciliation of PSNB and PSNCR

billion
Forecast
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18

81
Loans and repayments
11.5
of which:
Student loans1, 2
5.8
Financial sector interventions
-1.3
DfID
1.0
Ireland
1.6
Green Investment Bank
0.8
Business Finance Partnership
0.3
0.0
Other
3.4
Cash flow timing effects
-2.7
of which:
Asset Purchase Facility proceeds 0.0
Student loan interest2
0.8
PAYE income tax and NICs
0.8
Indirect taxes
0.9
Other receipts
0.5
Index-linked gilts3
-9.1
Conventional gilts
2.9
Other expenditure
0.5
Transactions in company securities -9.1
of which:
Northern Rock plc
-0.1
Royal Mail pension asset disposal -9.0
Other
23.7
of which:
Royal Mail transfer
23.5
Asset Purchase Facility proceeds 0.0
104
requirement
99
12.4
88
12.5
73
12.3
49
12.1
31
12.1
7.4
0.0
1.2
0.4
1.0
0.5
0.5
1.5
14.6
8.9
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.9
1.3
-3.1
9.8
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.7
-3.9
10.1
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.8
6.3
10.2
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
3.4
4.1
1.1
2.2
0.8
0.4
2.5
3.0
0.5
-1.0
-0.5
1.5
0.8
1.0
0.6
-10.2
3.1
0.5
0.0
-0.6
2.3
1.8
1.1
0.4
-12.7
3.3
0.5
0.0
-1.4
3.2
1.9
0.9
0.4
-2.1
3.1
0.4
0.0
-3.0
4.1
2.0
1.2
0.4
-5.2
3.5
0.4
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-23.5
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
-23.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
102
98
82
68
47
A breakdown based on ONS classifications is available on our website.

1
The table shows the net flow of student loans and repayments. This can be split out as follows:
Cash spending on new loans
7.7
9.7
11.5
12.8
13.5
14.0
Cash repayments
2.0
2.3
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
Cash payments of interest on student loans are included within 'Loans and repayments' as we cannot easily
separate them from repayments of principal. To prevent double counting the 'Student loan interest' timing
effect therefore simply removes accrued interest.
2
These reconciliations to the net cash requirement do not affect public sector net debt (ex).
Table 4.28: Changes in the reconciliation of PSNB and PSNCR since March
billion
Forecast
Loans and repayments
of which:
Student loans1, 2
Financial sector interventions3
DfID
Ireland
Green Investment Bank
Business Finance Partnership
Other
Cash flow timing effects
of which:
Asset Purchase Facility proceeds
Student loan interest2
PAYE income tax and NICs
Indirect taxes
Other receipts
Index-linked gilts3
Conventional gilts
Other expenditure
Transactions in company securities
of which:
Northern Rock plc
Royal Mail pension asset disposal
Other
of which:
Royal Mail transfer
Asset Purchase Facility proceeds
requirement
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
-11
2.1
2
2.6
13
5.9
21
5.1
28
4.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
-3.0
-0.1
2.2
0.1
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.3
7.4
0.3
4.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.5
4.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
2.4
0.7
3.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
2.7
0.0
0.0
-2.2
-0.3
0.7
-1.8
0.8
-0.2
-4.5
4.1
0.0
0.6
-0.5
0.0
2.1
1.7
-0.6
3.5
-0.5
-0.1
-0.8
-0.1
0.2
0.3
2.0
-0.5
0.0
-0.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
1.5
2.4
-0.1
0.0
-1.4
-0.9
-0.4
-0.3
0.0
3.8
2.4
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-4.5
-0.1
0.0
3.5
-23.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-23.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-17
-9
19
29
35
A breakdown based on ONS classifications is available on our website.

1
The table shows the net flow of student loans and repayments. This can be split out as follows:
Cash spending on new loans
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.6
Cash repayments
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Cash payments of interest on student loans are included within 'Loans and repayments' as we cannot easily
separate them from repayments of principal. To prevent double counting the 'Student loan interest' timing
effect therefore simply removes accrued interest.
2
These reconciliations to the net cash requirement do not affect public sector net debt (ex).
Table 4.29: Reconciliation of PSNCR and CGNCR

billion
Forecast
Outturn
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

requirement
of which:
Local authorities and public
corporations NCR
Central government NCR
own account
CGNCR own account
Net lending within the public
sector
Central government net
cash requirement
of which B&B and NRAM
CGNCR excl. B&B and NRAM
124
104
102
98
82
68
47
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
118
104
103
100
84
70
49
118
104
103
100
84
70
49
127
106
105
102
86
72
51
127
-3
104
-3
103
-3
99
-2
83
-1
70
-3
48
Table 4.30: Changes in the reconciliation of PSNCR and CGNCR since March
billion
Forecast
Outturn
requirement
of which:
Local authorities and public
corporations NCR
Central government NCR own
account
CGNCR own account
Net lending within the public
sector
Central government net
cash requirement
of which: B&B and NRAM
CGNCR excl. B&B and NRAM
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
-8
-17
-8
19
29
35
-5
-2
-1
-1
-1
-3
-15
-7
20
30
35
-3
-15
-7
20
30
35
-1
-3
-15
-7
21
30
35
-3
-3
-17
-3
-9
-3
18
-2
27
-1
33
Table 4.31: Changes to public sector net borrowing since March

billion
Forecast
Outturn
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
Forecast changes
Policy measures
APF transfers
B&B/NRAM classification
126.0
121.4
-4.6
91.9
80.5
-11.4
98
99
1.8
75
88
12.9
52
73
21.3
21
49
27.9
-4.6
0.0
0.0
-
4.4
-4.0
-11.5
-0.4
13.6
0.9
-12.3
-0.5
23.0
0.9
-10.6
-0.4
29.1
0.9
-8.0
-0.8
36.0
-0.3
-6.6
-1.1
Memo: March EFO PSNB ex Royal Mail
126.0
119.9
97.5
75.0
52.0
21.1
Memo: PSNB excluding Royal Mail
121.4
108.5
99.3
87.9
73.3
49.0
Memo: PSNB ex Royal Mail and APF
121.4
119.9
111.6
98.6
81.2
55.6
120.3
112.1
99.0
82.0
56.7
Memo: PSNB ex RM, B&B, NRAM and APF
Chart 4.5: Total public sector spending and receipts
Chart 4.6: Public sector net borrowing fan chart
Years
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
0.1
0.2
Median- with skew

0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
3.9
3.5
1.5
0.2
-1.4
-2.4
4.4
4.4
2.8
1.5
0.0
-1.1
4.7
5.1
3.7
2.5
0.9
-0.2
4.9
5.6
4.5
3.3
1.8
0.7
5.1
6.1
5.2
4.2
2.7
1.6
5.4
6.6
6.0
5.0
3.5
2.5
0.7
0.8
0.9
5.6
7.2
6.8
5.9
4.5
3.6
5.9
7.8
7.7
7.1
5.7
4.8
6.4
8.7
9.1
8.6
7.4
6.6
Table 4.32: Fiscal aggregates

Per cent of GDP
Forecast
Outturn
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Receipts and expenditure

Public sector current receipts (a)
37.3
38.0
Total managed expenditure (b)
45.2
43.1
of which:
Public sector current expenditure ( 42.1
42.3
Public sector net investment (d)
1.7
-0.5
Depreciation (e)
1.4
1.4
Deficit
Public sector net borrowing (b-a)
7.9
5.1
Surplus on current budget (a-c-e)
-6.2
-5.7
6.0
3.0
Primary balance
-5.0
-3.2
Cyclically-adjusted primary
-3.1
-1.1
balance
Fiscal mandate and supplementary target
-4.3
-3.6
current budget
66.4
74.7
Financing
Central government net cash
8.3
6.8
requirement
Public sector net cash requirement 8.1
6.6
Stability and Growth Pact
Treaty deficit3
7.7
5.2
Cyclically-adjusted Treaty deficit2
5.8
3.1
Treaty debt ratio3
85.8
90.3
Net investment
Central government net cash
requirement
Memo: PSNB ex. Royal Mail transfer
Memo: PSNB ex. Royal Mail transfer (per
cent of GDP)
Memo: Cyclically-adjusted PSNB ex.
Royal Mail transfer (per cent of GDP)
Memo: Output gap (per cent of GDP)
38.3
44.4
38.1
43.3
38.1
42.2
38.2
40.9
37.9
39.5
41.5
1.5
1.4
40.4
1.5
1.4
39.5
1.3
1.4
38.2
1.2
1.4
36.9
1.2
1.4
6.1
-4.6
3.8
-4.2
5.2
-3.7
2.9
-3.1
4.2
-2.9
2.0
-1.8
2.6
-1.4
0.9
-0.2
1.6
-0.4
0.3
1.2
-1.8
-0.8
0.3
1.6
2.6
-2.2
-1.4
-0.8
0.4
0.9
76.8
79.0
79.9
79.2
77.3
6.5
6.0
4.9
3.9
2.6
6.3
5.8
4.6
3.7
2.4
4.3
2.2
97.4
2.8
1.0
96.6
1.8
0.4
94.4
-51
23
73
-26
23
49
-8
23
31
-95
27
121
-89
-9
80
5.3
3.0
96.3
billion
-74
-62
25
26
99
88
127
106
105
102
86
72
51
1025
1186
1270
1362
1442
1498
1534
121.4
108.5
99.3
87.9
73.3
49.0
31.2
7.9
6.9
6.1
5.2
4.2
2.6
1.6
6.0
4.8
3.8
2.9
2.0
0.9
0.3
-2.7
-3.2
-3.5
-3.3
-2.9
-2.4
-1.7
Debt at end March; GDP centred on end March
General government net borrowing on a Maastricht basis
General government gross debt on a Maastricht basis
6.2
3.9
93.5
Table 4.33: Changes to net debt since March

Per cent of GDP
Forecast
Outturn
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
Change in nominal GDP1
Change in cash level of net debt
67.3
66.4
-0.9
71.9
74.7
2.8
0.0
-0.9
1.1
1.7
March forecast
1039
December forecast
1025
Change in cash level of net debt -13
of which:
Reclassification of B&B and
NRAM
-5
Auction price effects
Financial transactions and other
-9
1159
1186
27
Non-seasonally-adjusted GDP centred end-March.
75.0
76.8
1.8
76.3
79.0
2.6
76.0
79.9
3.9
74.3
79.2
4.9
1.9
2.8
-0.1
-0.2
billion
1272
1365
1270
1362
-2
-3
3.6
0.3
3.9
1.0
1437
1442
5
1479
1498
19
68
62
56
50
42
-11
-4
-12
-14
-43
11
-20
-11
-55
36
-28
-12
-63
67
-34
-14
-71
105
-39
###
-17
Table 4.34: Changes to the fiscal forecast

billion
Forecast
Outturn
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

June 2010 forecast
March 2012 forecast
Change
December 2012 forecast
Net investment
June 2010 forecast
March 2012 forecast
Change
Net borrowing
June 2010 forecast
March 2012 forecast
Change
-88
-98
3
-95
-65
-95
6
-89
-40
-74
0
-74
-17
-52
-10
-62
-30
-20
-51
1
-27
-26
-8
27
28
-1
27
24
-3
-5
-9
20
23
2
25
21
23
2
26
21
22
1
23
22
1
23
23
116
126
-5
121
89
92
-11
80
60
37
98
75
2
13
99
88
Per cent of GDP
20
52
21
73
21
28
49
31
2.1
4.3
0.9
5.2
1.1
2.8
1.3
4.2
1.1
1.6
2.6
1.6
0.3
-1.5
0.2
-1.4
0.8
-0.7
-0.1
-0.8
0.5
-0.1
0.4
0.9
0.8
2.9
0.0
2.9
0.3
1.9
0.1
2.0
0.7
0.2
0.9
0.3
69.4
76.3
2.6
79.0
67.4
76.0
3.9
79.9
74.3
4.9
79.2
77.3
Net borrowing
June 2010 forecast
7.5
5.5
3.5
March 2012 forecast
8.3
5.8
5.9
Change
-0.3
-0.7
0.2
7.9
5.1
6.1
Cyclically-adjusted surplus on current budget
June 2010 forecast
-3.2
-1.9
-0.7
March 2012 forecast
-4.6
-4.2
-2.7
Change
0.3
0.6
0.5
-4.3
-3.6
-2.2
June 2010 forecast
5.0
3.4
1.8
March 2012 forecast
6.4
4.0
4.1
Change
-0.4
-1.0
-0.4
6.0
3.0
3.8
Net debt1
June 2010 forecast
67.2
69.8
70.3
March 2012 forecast
67.3
71.9
75.0
Change
-0.9
2.8
1.8
66.4
74.7
76.8
1
Debt at end March; GDP centred on end March.
Table 4.35: Comparison with European Commission forecasts

Per cent of GDP
UK (December EFO)
UK (EC)
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Euro area
Treaty Deficit
2012
2013
6.4
5.5
6.2
7.2
0.2
0.2
4.5
3.5
2.9
2.1
8.0
6.0
3.3
2.6
2014
5.6
5.9
0.0
3.5
2.1
6.4
2.5
Treaty Debt
2012
2013
89.3
92.8
88.7
93.2
81.7
80.8
90.0
92.7
126.5
127.6
86.1
92.7
92.9
94.5
Source: OBR, European Commission, European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2012
2014
95.7
95.1
78.4
93.8
126.5
93.8
94.3
Table 4.36: Comparison with IMF forecasts
UK (December EFO)
UK (IMF)
Germany
France
Italy
Japan
U.S.
Per cent of GDP

General Government Net
General Government Net Debt
Borrowing
2012
2013
2017
2012
2013
2017
6.4
5.5
2.0
80.1
83.9
87.1
8.2
7.3
1.7
83.7
88.2
88.7
0.4
0.4
0.0
58.4
57.5
56.2
4.7
3.5
0.0
83.7
85.9
80.2
2.7
1.8
0.7
103.1
103.9
98.7
10.0
9.1
5.8
135.4
144.7
158.7
8.7
7.3
4.4
83.8
87.7
89.4
Source: OBR, IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012
Table 5.1: Performance against the Governments fiscal targets

Per cent of GDP
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Cyclically-adjusted current budget

March forecast
-4.6
December forecast excluding
-4.3
Autumn Statement measures1
December forecast also excluding
-4.3
other announcements and
reclassifications2
December forecast
-4.3
March forecast
67.3
December forecast excluding
66.4
Autumn Statement measures1
December forecast also excluding
other announcements and
66.4
reclassifications2
December forecast
66.4
-4.2
-2.7
-1.5
-0.7
0.5
-3.6
-2.3
-1.5
-0.7
0.3
0.7
-4.4
-3.1
-2.2
-1.2
-0.1
0.6
-3.6
-2.2
-1.4
-0.8
0.4
0.9
71.9
75.0
76.3
76.0
74.3
75.0
77.0
79.0
79.9
79.1
77.5
72.8
77.2
80.3
81.9
81.9
80.7
74.7
76.8
79.0
79.9
79.2
77.3
These remove the direct effect of measures announced in the Autumn Statement. No account is taken of
indirect effects, including the impact on debt interest payments.
1
These remove the direct effect of: Autumn Statement measures; the transfer of Royal Mail's historic pension
deficit and subsequent asset sales; proceeds from the Asset Purchase Facility; and the reclassification of
Bradford & Bingley plc and Northern Rock (Asset Management). No account is taken of indirect effects,
including the impact on debt interest payments, nor the impact of reclassifications on 2011-12 figures.
2
Table 5.2: Changes to the cyclically-adjusted current budget since March

Per cent of GDP
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-181
March forecast
-4.6
December forecast
-4.3
Change
0.3
of which:
Judgement on potential output -0.1
0.0
0.0
Reclassification of B&B and NRAM
Baseline spending assumption 0.0
0.0
0.4
Other forecasting changes
-4.2
-3.6
0.6
-2.7
-2.2
0.5
-1.5
-1.4
0.2
-0.7
-0.8
-0.1
0.5
0.4
-0.1
0.5
0.9
0.5
-0.2
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.8
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.6
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.3
-0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.9
0.0
0.1
0.8
0.3
0.3
We did not produce a forecast for the CACB in 2017-18 in our March EFO. The table shows the differences
once rolling forward our forecast for 2016-17 one year ahead.
1
Table 5.3: Decomposition of changes in the profile of net debt since March
Change in PSND on a year earlier (per cent of GDP)
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
3.1
1.3
-0.3
-1.8
2.1
2.2
1.0
-0.8
-1.0
0.9
1.3
1.0
March forecast
December forecast
Change
of which:
Nominal GDP
Reclassification of B&B and NRAM
Other
0.8
-1.9
-0.5
0.9
-0.3
0.9
-0.5
-0.5
1.4
-0.4
0.8
-0.3
-0.5
1.6
-0.3
0.3
-0.3
-0.5
1.8
-0.3
Chart 5.1: Cyclically-adjusted current budget fan chart
Years
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
0.1
0.2
0.3
-4.6
-3.8
-3.5
-3.1
-1.8
-1.1
-4.2
-3.2
-2.8
-2.3
-1
-0.4
-4
-2.9
-2.3
-1.7
-0.5
0.1
Median- with skew

0.4
0.5
0.6
-3.8
-2.5
-1.8
-1.2
-0.1
0.5
-3.6
-2.2
-1.4
-0.8
0.4
0.9
-3.4
-1.9
-0.9
-0.3
0.8
1.3
0.7
0.8
0.9
-3.1
-1.6
-0.5
0.2
1.2
1.7
-2.9
-1.2
0.1
0.8
1.8
2.2
-2.5
-0.7
0.8
1.6
2.5
2.9
Table 5.4: Cyclically-adjusted current budget in 2017-18
Per cent of GDP
Output gap
in 2012 Q3
-0.7
-1.7
-2.7
-3.7
-4.7
Output gap closes

2016-17
2018-19
2020-21
2022-23
2024-25
-0.5
0.2
1.0
1.7
2.5
-0.5
0.2
0.9
1.7
2.4
-0.5
0.2
0.9
1.6
2.4
-0.5
0.2
0.9
1.6
2.3
-0.5
0.2
0.9
1.6
2.3
Table 5.5: Change in PSND between 2014-15 and 2015-16
Per cent of GDP
Output gap
in 2012 Q3
-0.7
-1.7
-2.7
-3.7
-4.7
Output gap closes

2016-17
2018-19
2020-21
2022-23
2024-25
0.5
-0.3
-1.0
-1.7
-2.5
1.4
0.9
0.4
-0.1
-0.5
1.7
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.3
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.0
0.7
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.1
Table 5.6: Fiscal target variables under different gilt rate assumptions
Per cent of GDP

Cyclically-adjusted current
budget balance in 201718
Change in public sector net
debt between 201415 and
201516
Change in gilt rate (bps)

-50
50
100
150
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
Table 5.7: Key economic and fiscal aggregates under alternative scenarios
2012-13
Central forecast
Economic assumptions
GDP (percentage change)
CPI inflation (Q3)
Output gap
Fiscal impact (per cent of GDP)
budget
Weaker supply scenario
CPI inflation (Q3)
Output gap
budget
Stronger demand scenario
CPI inflation (Q3)
Output gap
budget
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
0.1
2.4
8.0
-3.2
1.5
2.6
8.2
-3.5
2.1
2.2
8.2
-3.3
2.4
2.0
7.9
-2.9
2.7
2.0
7.5
-2.4
2.8
2.0
7.0
-1.7
5.1
6.1
5.2
4.2
2.6
1.6
-3.6
-2.2
-1.4
-0.8
0.4
0.9
74.7
76.8
79.0
79.9
79.2
77.3
0.1
2.4
7.9
-3.1
1.5
2.6
8.0
-2.9
2.1
2.2
7.7
-2.2
2.4
2.2
7.2
-1.3
2.5
2.2
6.5
-0.4
1.8
2.2
6.2
0.0
5.1
6.1
5.2
4.2
2.7
2.0
-3.6
-2.5
-1.9
-1.8
-1.1
-0.7
74.7
76.8
78.8
79.7
79.3
78.4
0.1
2.4
7.8
-2.8
1.9
2.7
8.0
-3.0
3.0
2.5
7.6
-1.9
3.1
2.4
7.0
-1.0
2.9
2.4
6.5
-0.4
2.5
2.3
6.2
-0.1
5.1
6.0
4.7
3.6
2.0
1.1
-3.7
-2.4
-1.7
-1.4
-0.4
0.2
74.6
76.1
77.0
76.8
75.3
73.2

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Economic & Fiscal Outlook (December 2012) Charts & Tables

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Economic forecast overview

Chapter 2 - Developments since the March 2012 Forecast

2.1: Contributions to real GDP growth from 2009Q2 to 2011Q4

Chapter 3 - Economic Outlook

3.1: Estimates of the output gap based on cyclical indicators

Table 3.6: Detailed summary of changes to forecast

Chapter 4 - Fiscal Outlook

4.1: Determinants of the fiscal forecast

Chapter 5 - Performance Against the Government's Fiscal Targets

Changes to the cyclically-adjusted current budget since March

Table 1.1: Economic forecast overview

Output at constant market prices

Expenditure components of GDP

Includes households and non-profit institutions serving households.

Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points.

Wages and salaries divided by employees.

Chart 1.1: GDP fan chart

Median - With Skew

Table 1.2: Fiscal forecast overview

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Public sector net borrowing

Debt at end March; GDP centred on end March.

Table 1.3: Changes in public sector net borrowing

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Memo: March EFO PSNB ex Royal Mail

Memo: PSNB excluding Royal Mail

Memo: PSNB ex Royal Mail and APF

Memo: PSNB ex RM, B&B, NRAM and APF

Chart 1.2: PSNB fan chart

Per cent of GDP

December 2012 EFO central forecast

Median- with skew

Table 1.4: Changes in public sector net debt

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Non-seasonally-adjusted GDP centred end-March.

Table 2.1: Contributions to real GDP growth from 2009Q2 to 2011Q4

Difference in unrounded numbers, rounded to one decimal place.

Table 2.2: Contributions to real GDP growth 2011Q4 to 2012Q3

Difference in unrounded numbers, rounded to one decimal place.

Initial data recession1

Difference in unrounded numbers, rounded to one decimal place.

Chart 2.1: LFS employment and March forecast

Years Employment March Forecast

LFS employment (16+)

Chart 2.2: CPI inflation and March forecast

CPI (monthly) OBR March forecast (quarterly)

Chart 2.3: Forecasts for GDP growth in 2012

GDP Range Forecasts

CPI Range Forecasts

Unemployment Range Forecasts

Chart 2.6: Market expectation for Bank rate adjusted for QE

Bank rate adjusted for QE

Chart 3.1: Estimates of the output gap based on cyclical indicators

Years "Aggregate composite" estimates"Principal components analysis" estimates

Chart 3.2: Implied trend TFP from cyclical indicators approach

Trend TFP (adjusted)

Chart 3.3: CBI capacity utilisation (three-quarter rolling average,

Chart 3.4: Estimates of the output gap in 2012

Percent of potential output

Chart 3.5: Potential output comparison with other forecasters

Actual output index 2011=100

Source: OBR; OECD November Economic Outlook,