Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
EBITDA at Rs650mn, above est led by better profitability of Plywood & Laminates (P& L) division. Net profit at Rs43mn, -84%, above est Robust topline growth (+22% yoy) continues driven by P&L revenue growth of 23% while cement segment registered +30% revenue growth Cement expansions in North East delayed by 6 months while 1.6mnt grinding unit at Kahalgaon faces uncertainty due to land acquisition issues. Cut FY12/13 EPS by 3.5%/15.3% De-merger of cement business also deferred to further date No positive triggers in medium term. Downgrade rating to ACCUMULATE with revised TP of Rs60( Rs82 earlier)
EPS change FY12E/13E (%) Target Price change (%) Nifty Sensex
Price Performance
(%) Absolute Rel. to Nifty
Source: Bloomberg
1M 7 (1)
3M
6M 12M (5)
Lower costs and better profitability from Laminates division drive operational performance above estimates
CPILs EBITDA at Rs650mn, was higher than estimates of Rs565mn, mainly driven by lower expenses and better than estimated profitability from laminates division (EBIT margins of 11.6% vs estimated 7.5%). Plywood and Laminates (P&L) EBIT at Rs187mn, +124 % yoy, was higher than estimates of Rs170mn. The improved profitability in the P& L segment was driven by reduction in dealer discounts & ad spends. Cement division revenues grew 29.6% yoy to Rs1.57bn led by robust volume growth of 20% yoy and 7.7% growth in cement realizations. Cement EBIT/t improved 1.3% yoy to Rs796/t. Overall EBITDA margins of 14.8%, came in better than estimates of 13%.
64
10
56
48
-10
40 Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
-20 Jan-12
Source: Bloomberg
Stock Details
Sector Bloomberg Equity Capital (Rs mn) Face Value(Rs) No of shares o/s (mn) 52 Week H/L Market Cap (Rs bn/USD mn) Daily Avg Volume (No of sh) Daily Avg Turnover (US$mn)
Revenues for Q3FY12 at Rs4395mn grew a robust 22% yoy. This revenue growth was primarily fuelled by a robust volume growth in P&L (net revenues at Rs2416mn, +23% yoy) and 20% volume growth in cement business (net revenue of Rs1573 mn, +30%). Cement realizations of Rs5450/t registered a growth of 7.7% yoy as cement prices in eastern region (100% share of CPILs dispatches) grew 16% yoy and 14% qoq. Logistics segment continued to benefit from its CFS at Jingirapole (commissioned in June-2010) and posted revenues of Rs155mn, growth of 28.3%.
Jun-11 Mar-11 72.9 0.6 0.0 12.4 14.1 83.2 0.1 0.0 10.9 5.8
Rs Mn
Ajit Motwani ajit.motwani@emkayglobal.com +91 22 6612 1255 Chandan Asrani chandan.asrani@emkayglobal.com +91 22 6612 1241
Result Update
Result Update
YTD FY11 9,936 8,049 81.0 3901 39.3 743 7.5 3405 34.3 1,887 368 1,642 123 151 1,491 109 1,382 282 1,100
31.2
27.1
29.6
5.4 11.0 -36.2 -58.8 59.1 -45.9 -93.5 -42.2 -36.6 -43.6
1,100 5.0
-43.6 -43.6
Margins (%) EBIDTA EBIT EBT PAT Effective Tax rate 13.4 11.7 10.2 7.4 8.0 13.7 9.4 8.4 10.7 (48.1) 17.9 15.5 13.9 10.5 7.1 15.2 5.5 3.7 3.6 (14.9) 14.8 4.3 1.9 1.0 (14.6)
(bps) -42 -116 -177 -262 29 15.9 8.4 6.5 5.0 0.9 19.0 16.5 15.0 11.1 7.3
Emkay Research
23 January 2012
Result Update
QoQ (%) YTD FY12 YTD FY11 1.3 -12.3 33.5 10.1 37.3 12.4 15.5 12.3 7156 597 537 615 4094 12999 533 12466 5704 510 642 308 3291 10455 519 9936
YoY (%) 25.5 17.1 -16.3 100.0 24.4 24.3 2.8 25.5
Segment Results (EBIT) (a) Plywood and Laminates (b) Ferro Alloys (c) Power (d) Others (e) Cement Total
QoQ (%) YTD FY12 YTD FY11 -31.0 -314.9 -141.3 23.2 58.8 -8.3 715 14 30 156 678 1593 445 68 104 47 928 1591
EBIT margin (%) (a) Plywood and Laminates (b) Ferro Alloys (c) Power (d) Others (e) Cement
YoY(bps) QoQ(bps) YTD FY12 YTD FY11 352 -2935 -1183 543 -92 -364 -1472 -1597 300 197 10.0 2.3 5.7 25.3 16.6 7.8 13.2 16.2 15.4 28.2
Cement capex plans delayed by 6 months- Kahalgaon unit facing land acquisition issues
Cement: CMCL, CPILs 70.48% cement subsidiarys capex plans to quadrapule the cement capacity( from 1.2mnt to 4.4 mnt) has gone haywire. Due to operational delays commissioning of 1.6 mnt Cement Grinding unit at Guwahati and 1.75 mnt clinkerisation plant at Lumshong, Meghalaya has been delayed by 6 months to September 2012. Post the completion of the above capex program, CMCL's clinker capacity would increase from current 0.79 mtpa to 2.55 mtpa while its cement manufacturing capacity will increase from current 1.2 mtpa to 2.8 mtpa. However the major concern is the uncertain delay in the 1.6mnt cement grinding plant project at Kahalgaon (scheduled to be commissioned by September 2012 earlier) which has hit the roadblock due to land acquisition issues. Plywood: CPIL Plans to expand plywood and veneer capacity by 30,000 CBM at Kandla, Gujarat which will take total plywood installed capacity from current 122,420 CBM to 152,420 CBM. Laminates & allied products: CPIL is expanding its laminate capacity by 1.2 million sheets from current 2.4 million sheets at existing unit in Joka, Kolkata. This will take the total laminate installed capacity to 3.6 million sheets. The company plans to double its PreLaminated Boards capacity at the existing Chennai plant from 800,000 sqm currently to 1,600,000 sqm.
Emkay Research
23 January 2012
Result Update
Project (Figures in Rs mn) Cement 1.75 Mn Ton Clinkerisation Plant at Lumshnong, Meghalaya in the name of Star Cement Meghalaya Ltd. (Wholly Owned Subsidiary of the company) 1.6 Mn Ton Cement Grinding unit along with 10 MW captive power project at Guwahati 1.6 Mn Ton Cement Grinding unit along with 10 MW captive power project at Kahalgaon Total Capex by CMCL Capex by Meghalaya Power, CMCL's 50% associate (43 MW CPP) Plywood and Laminates Green field Expansion at Kandla, Gujarat-30,000 CBM Laminates expansion of 1.2 mnsheets at Kolkata Pre-Laminated board expansion of 800,000 SQM at Chennai Total
Targeted Completion
Project Cost
Equity
Debt
Mar-12
1980
Emkay Research
23 January 2012
Result Update
Key Financials
Income Statement
Y/E, Mar (Rs. m) Net Sales Growth (%) Expenditure Cost of Materials Personnel Expenses Other Exp EBITDA Growth (%) EBITDA margin (%) Depreciation EBIT EBIT margin (%) Other income Interest PBT Total Tax Effective tax rate (%) Adjusted PAT Growth (%) Net Margin (%) (Profit)/loss from JV's/Ass/MI PAT after MI E/O items Reported PAT Growth (%) 1462 59.2 1546 5.8 1517 -1.9 1710 12.7 FY10 11625 11.8 9169 4659 826 3684 2456 31.8 21.1 452 2004 17.2 296 252 2048 379 18.5 1832 51.8 15.4 370 1462 FY11 14289 22.9 11797 5761 1036 5000 2492 1.5 17.4 508 1984 13.9 87 232 1838 372 20.3 1897 3.6 13.2 351 1546 FY12E 17299 21.1 14622 7790 1145 5687 2677 7.4 15.5 584 2094 12.1 130 300 1924 147 7.6 1777 -6.3 10.2 261 1517 FY13E 23244 34.4 19098 9746 1368 7984 4146 54.8 17.8 1313 2832 12.2 221 972 2081 204 9.8 1877 5.6 8.0 167 1710
Balance Sheet
Y/E, Mar (Rs. m) Equity share capital Reserves & surplus Networth Minority Interest Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Loan Funds Deferred tax liability Total Liabilities Gross Block Less: Depreciation Net block Capital WIP Investment Current Assets Inventories Sundry Debtors Cash and Bank bal Loans and Advances Other Current assets Current lia & Prov Current liabilities Provisions Net current assets Misc. exp Total Assets FY10 228 4639 4867 1240 3873 332 4204 14 10325 5455 1960 3495 365 5 6640 2105 1286 495 1380 1374 1494 1403 91 5146 2 10325 FY11 228 6061 6289 1558 5418 429 5847 7 13700 6756 2494 4262 181 56 8025 2517 1522 368 2235 1383 2192 1877 314 5833 2 13700 FY12E 228 7355 7582 1818 9923 134 10057 7 19464 14899 3077 11821 41 224 9733 2765 2685 945 1957 1381 2606 2291 314 7127 2 19465 FY13E 228 8766 8994 1985 9805 134 9939 7 20925 15509 4391 11118 41 391 12415 3802 4158 152 2923 1381 3292 2978 314 9123 2 20926
Cash Flow
Y/E, Mar (Rs. m) Pre-tax profit Depreciation Interest Provided Other Prov & W/O Chg in working cap Tax & other Operating cash flows Capital expenditure Free Cash Flow Other income Investments Investing Cashflow Equity Capital Raised Loans Taken / (Repaid) Interest Paid Dividend paid (incl tax) Income from investments Others Financing Cashflow Net chg in cash Opening cash position Closing cash position -216 105 390 495 1486 -167 495 368 3688 576 368 945 -1388 -793 945 152 FY10 1752 452 252 0 -358 -367 1730 -1588 142 296 -1 -1293 0 138 -252 -103 0 FY11 1752 508 232 -31 -1038 59 1481 -3170 -1689 87 -51 -3135 0 1643 -232 -269 0 FY12E 1794 584 300 0 -717 -147 1813 -4888 -3074 130 -168 -4925 0 4210 -300 -222 0 FY13E 1860 1313 972 0 -2789 -204 1152 -610 542 221 -168 -557 0 -117 -972 -298 0
Key Ratios
Y/E, Mar Profitability (%) EBITDA Margin Net Margin ROCE ROE RoIC Per Share Data (Rs) EPS CEPS BVPS DPS Valuations (x) PER P/CEPS P/BV EV / Sales EV / EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) Gearing Ratio (x) Net debt/ Equity Net Debt/EBIDTA Working Cap Cycle (days) 0.8 1.5 59.5 0.9 2.2 47.2 1.2 3.3 60.0 1.0 2.4 73.3 7.7 5.9 2.3 1.1 5.9 2.0 7.3 5.5 1.8 1.0 6.3 2.0 7.4 5.4 1.5 0.9 6.7 1.7 6.6 3.7 1.3 0.7 4.5 2.3 6.6 8.6 21.9 1.0 7.0 9.2 28.3 1.0 6.8 9.5 34.1 0.9 7.7 13.6 40.5 1.1 21.1 15.4 24.2 34.5 26.0 17.4 13.2 17.3 27.8 22.2 15.5 10.2 13.4 21.9 15.1 17.8 8.0 15.1 20.7 14.9 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Emkay Research
23 January 2012
Result Update
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. 7th Floor, The Ruby, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar - West, Mumbai - 400028. India Tel: +91 22 66121212 Fax: +91 22 66121299 Web: www.emkayglobal.com
Emkay Global Financial Services Limited and its affiliates are a full-service, brokerage, investment banking, investment management, and financing group. We along with our affiliates are participants in virtually all securities trading markets in India. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. Investors may assume that Emkay Global Financial Services Limited and/or its affiliates may seek investment banking or other business from the company or companies that are the subject of this material and that the research professionals who were involved in preparing this material may participate in the solicitation of such business. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. In reviewing these materials, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additionally, other important information regarding our relationships with the company or companies that are the subject of this material is provided herein. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Emkay Global Financial Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Specifically, this document does not constitute an offer to or solicitation to any U.S. person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction to any U.S. person unless otherwise stated, this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction. No part of this document may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom. All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Emkay. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Emkay. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are trademarks or registered trademarks of Emkay or its Group Companies. The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized reading, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized. Please ensure that you have read Risk Disclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in Indian Securities Market. In so far as this report includes current or historic information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.
DISCLAIMER:
Emkay Research
23 January 2012
www.emkayglobal.com 1