2AC Blocks

NEENAH DEBATE NATHAN CHO
Neenah CK 2AC - Standard Last Updated: 12/13/2012
Neenah 2AC Blocks

Contents Neenah 2AC Blocks ...................................................................................................... 1 # # On Case # # ......................................................................................................... 5 - - Extensions - - ........................................................................................................ 6 Economy .................................................................................................................. 7 Warming .................................................................................................................. 9 Solvency ................................................................................................................. 10 - - New Case Args - - ................................................................................................ 12 Warming Impact Calc .............................................................................................. 13 Economy Impact Calc .............................................................................................. 15 Nuke War ............................................................................................................ 16 Econ Turns Environment ...................................................................................... 17 - - Case Blocks - - ..................................................................................................... 18 AT Inherency........................................................................................................ 19 AT Inherency (Cities) ............................................................................................ 20 AT Construction Turn ........................................................................................... 21 AT Ice Age Turn .................................................................................................... 23 AT No Intl Warming Solvency .............................................................................. 24 AT Adaption Solves Warming ............................................................................... 25 AT Dirty Grid ........................................................................................................ 26 AT Cold worse than Heat...................................................................................... 27 AT Cars dont contribute much to warming .......................................................... 28 AT 31000 scientists disagree with warming .......................................................... 29 AT Delays ............................................................................................................. 31 AT Econ Improving ............................................................................................... 32 AT Property Values .............................................................................................. 33
AT Barnet: Econ /=/ War ...................................................................................... 34 AT Inflation .......................................................................................................... 35 AT Econ War Empirics .......................................................................................... 36 AT Dedev - CO2 .................................................................................................... 38 AT Ridership ........................................................................................................ 39 AT Geography ...................................................................................................... 40 # # Theory # # ......................................................................................................... 41 Conditionality Bad ............................................................................................... 42 Dispositionality Bad ............................................................................................. 43 Multiple Perms Good .......................................................................................... 44 Perm Advocacy Good .......................................................................................... 45 PICs Bad .............................................................................................................. 46 Consult Bad ......................................................................................................... 47 Multiactor Fiat Bad .............................................................................................. 48 International Fiat Bad .......................................................................................... 49 Utopian Fiat Bad .................................................................................................. 50 Vagueness Bad .................................................................................................... 51 Must have solvency advocate .............................................................................. 52 Textual Competition Best .................................................................................... 53 Topical Competition Bad ..................................................................................... 54 Noninherent Counterplans Bad ........................................................................... 55 Nontopical CPs Bad ............................................................................................ 56 Topical CPs Bad .................................................................................................. 57 Neg Fiat Bad ........................................................................................................ 58 # # Off case # # ....................................................................................................... 59 T - Resolved ............................................................................................................ 60 T - Should ............................................................................................................... 61 Words & Phrases 6 .............................................................................................. 61 T - Substantially ...................................................................................................... 62 Words and Phrases 2 ........................................................................................... 62
T - Increase ............................................................................................................. 63 T - Increase = Preexistence ...................................................................................... 64 T - TI ....................................................................................................................... 65 T - Investment ........................................................................................................ 66 T - United States ..................................................................................................... 67 AT: ASPEC ............................................................................................................... 68 AT: SPECs ................................................................................................................ 69 States CP - 3:30 ....................................................................................................... 70 2AC States CP [1/7] ............................................................................................. 71 2AC States CP [2/7] ............................................................................................. 73 2AC States CP [3/7] ............................................................................................. 74 2AC States CP [4/7] ............................................................................................. 75 2AC States CP [5/7] ............................................................................................. 76 2AC States CP [6/7] ............................................................................................. 77 2AC States CP [7/7] ............................................................................................. 79 1AR States CP [1/3] ............................................................................................. 80 1AR States CP [2/3] ............................................................................................. 81 1AR States CP [3/3] ............................................................................................. 82 User Fees CP ........................................................................................................... 83 2AC ..................................................................................................................... 84 XO CP ..................................................................................................................... 88 2AC ..................................................................................................................... 89 China CP ................................................................................................................. 93 2AC ..................................................................................................................... 94 Sea Basing CP ....................................................................................................... 102 Carbon Tax CP ...................................................................................................... 104 OTEC CP ................................................................................................................ 105 H1B CP.................................................................................................................. 106 EB VISAS CP .......................................................................................................... 108 Spending DA ......................................................................................................... 110
2AC Spending DA [1/4] ...................................................................................... 111 2AC Spending DA [2/4] ...................................................................................... 112 2AC Spending DA [3/4] ...................................................................................... 113 2AC Spending DA [4/4] ...................................................................................... 114 Politics Obama Good DA .................................................................................... 115 2AC P-OG DA ..................................................................................................... 116 1AR P-OG DA Extensions ................................................................................... 122 AT Galston 10 ................................................................................................. 123 Politics Fiscal Cliff DA ......................................................................................... 124 Politics Iran Diplo DA ......................................................................................... 126 Blackouts DA ........................................................................................................ 128 Wage Inflation DA ................................................................................................ 131 LUST DA................................................................................................................ 133 Freight DA ............................................................................................................ 135 Federalism DA ...................................................................................................... 136 Urban Sprawl DA .................................................................................................. 137 2AC ................................................................................................................... 138 1AR ................................................................................................................... 139 Auto Trade Off DA ................................................................................................ 140 Airline Trade Off DA ............................................................................................. 141 Oil DA ................................................................................................................... 142 K Answers............................................................................................................. 144 Security K ............................................................................................................. 152
# # On Case # #
- - Extensions - -
Economy
Extend NRDC 11 the poor quality of our infrastructure will kill the economy nearly a million jobs will be lost, $3.1 trillion decline in GDP, businesses will be spending nearly half a trillion on transportation costs, and families will see their incomes drop by $7000 First internal link is short-term stimulus Extend Brumley 12 businesses have money, but arent spending it US corporations hold over 2.1 trillion dollars in cash that can be easily spent, this is a record high. 14.2% of all dollars are sitting on the sidelines. Extend Thoma 12 this is because of a lack of demand for products surveys of corporate leaders show that this is the single largest and most cited reason for a lack of business investment. Extend Hirsch 10 public spending gets demand rolling again people will be hired to build high-speed rail this gives them money which they then spend on goods and businesses will invest to compensate for the increase in consumer demand for products. This is uniquely key to getting out of the current slump 15 million people are in long-term unemployment and there are excesses of production capacity. This is empirically proven with FDRs Civil Works Administration they created more than 8 million jobs investing in infrastructure. Extend TI is a uniquely powerful stimulus Han 12 it has the highest multiplier effect; further, public investment is key to private sector productivity, growth of TI by 1% increases private GDP by .6% Extend Krugman 10 Deficits are necessary for growth bond purchasing is high which means short term deficits can be offset, the long-term is the real worry and that will be offset by 50% if econ growth returns to pre-recession levels; deficit hype is marginalizing opposition and endorses the same justification for the Iraq war; unwarranted allegations reported as if fact. This is fear mongering that results in millions of unemployed people. And this is empirically proven by the Recovery Act
Bernstein 11 It created 3 million jobs and raised GDP by 3.4% Stevenson AND Wolfers 12 Theres a strong economic consensus about stimulus spending 92% of leading economists agree that the stimulus created jobs and all surveyed economists defend the bailouts when weighted by confidence, this goes even stronger. Extend Bivens and Edwards 10 Econ growth solves long-term deficits raises tax revenue and solves the need for expansionary fiscal policy like unemployment compensation Next internal link is long-term growth Extend Todorovich et al. 11 HSR solves the economy via 6 internal links Productivity from time savings, expanded job market, tourism, direct construction, real estate, agglomeration Extend Ahlfeldt 12 HSR Spurring economic growth is empirically proven on average, towns connected to lines have their GDP rise by at least 3% compared to the average of towns not connected. Extend Royal 10 Multiple warrants for econ decline leading to conflict; redistribution of power leads to miscalc, the solution of warring to solve resource shortages increases as perception of decline persists due to a failure of trade, internal conflicts, terrorism, popular incentivization of war by governments, low US presidential approval is linked with an increase in force
Warming
Extend Dutzik et al. 10 HSR dramatically reduces congestion trades off with cars + planes, Center for Clean Air estimates that would reduce car travel by 29 million trips, hurts econ 4.16 billion hours lost Extend Barth And Boriboonsomsin 10 Which reduces US carbon emissions by 20% - Empirically verified with California Extend Deibel 7 Unanimous Scientific consensus exists on warming, its real and caused by carbon emissions every peer reviewed article on climate change says warming is anthropogenic and occurring
Solvency
Extend Dutzik et al 10 stable federal funding key to solvency disrupts long-term capital planning and investor confidence key to industrial benefits; further, investment in rail now prevents even more spending on roads + airports later Extend HSR will have strong ridership Dutzik et al. 10 Surveys 82% prefer it when they use it Hurst 12 Amtrak carried 30.2 million passengers in 2011, most since 1971 eighth time in nine years that Amtrak has set a ridership record proves a trend Meggison 12 and Transit stats prove public transit highest level since 1957 Extend Pollack 12 now is the key time to invest in high speed rail first, interest rates are negative, this means the private sector is subsidizing infrastructure investment, second, construction companies are desperate for work and are making extraordinarily low bids to compete for business this means were cheap, and third spending money on infrastructure now saves ten times as much in repairs later Extend the plan will be paid for using Clubb 10 Stimulus, Bailout funds More than $80 billion in uncommitted stimulus money to renewable energy DOT 12 and the military $500 billion from military drawdowns over six years Extend Moore 11 HSR is profitable nearly all make operational profits which is distinct from paying off the initial investment which cant be done in a year
Ignore their authors Deweese 10 CATO, Heritage, and Reason are trying to blend corporate and state power thats empirically proven They advocate PPPs which Mussolini used to concentrate corporate power Boyles 5 - These think tanks are academically indefensible They lack peer review, are biased, and reverse the scientific method Snookered 12 They fabricate author credentials and are corrupted by oil interests They hire people with no formal education and use the think tank as a credibility cover. They are funded by the kochs
10
NYT 9 Specifically, OToole is not educated, he falsifies data, and makes assumptions an author he cited disputed OTooles claims and said OToole makes ridership assumptions. Greenpeace 10 Also the Mercatus Center is heavily tied to oil interests they received 10 million dollars from the Koch foundation. Charles Koch is on the board of directors and they were founded by a Koch Industries executive. Tevelow 5 These indicts dont apply to liberal organizations liberal organizations dont have the same ideological commitment and narrative as conservative ones Dont let them make new case arguments in the 2NC 1. Reciprocity Aff cant make new arguments following the 2NC 2. Time and Strat Skew Entire aff strategy is predicated off the 2AC, new case arguments in the 2NC bypasses the 2AC and puts enormous pressure on the 1AR A dropped argument is a dropped argument
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- - New Case Args - -
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Warming Impact Calc

Magnitude Global warming is comparatively the worst impact Genovese 7
The Impacts Jane Genovese; owner, coordinator and presenter of Learning Fundamentals, an organisation that gives students the edge over their studies. Jane gives workshops on memory techniques and general study strategies, exam preparation, managing stress and how to focus in the age of distraction. She graduated from university in 2009 with a Bachelor of Laws and Bachelor of Psychology with first class honours and received a Vice Chancellors Award for Academic Excellence. In 2010, she commenced her PhD in the area of education and psychology at Murdoch University; 2007 http://live-the-solution.com/wp-content/uploads/chapter2b-impacts.pdf Often when people think of catastrophe what automatically jumps to mind are events that occur in an instant such as earthquakes, tsunamis and landslides. Many people fail to consider categorising global warming as a catastrophe, since the consequences of it take many years to manifest. When the full impact of what has already happened and what is predicted to happen to the earth is properly considered, the reality hits home that
cataclysmic events in history worse than war, famine, or plague

any
. James Lovelock (creator of the Gaia theory) states
in living memory;
global warming will be the mother of all The catastrophe threatened by global heating is far worse even than global nuclear war
. Much of the lush and comfortable Earth we now enjoy is
about to become a hot and barren desert. Leading scientist at NASA, Dr James Hansen, states the world has warmed by approximately 0.8 degrees over the past century, which is much larger than any of the climate changes experienced during the past 10,000 years. This may
heat waves, deep oceans warming, the Arctic ice cap melting sea levels rising species extinctions increased earthquakes and stronger and longer storm and flood events have occurred extreme weather events have quintupled since 1950. Of the 12 warmest years on record, 11 occurred between 1995 and 2006. 2005 was the hottest year in over a century
seem like a small increase in temperature given the huge variations in temperature we experience daily, but the effect of this overall global warming has been devastating: (three times faster than it had been predicted), (twice as rapidly as had been predicted), disappear every hour), changes). One only needs to take a look at the weather conditions around the globe over the past few years to see that the worlds climate is changing rapidly and becoming more extreme. According to Munich Re (an insurance company) Agency. This is just a snapshot of what is going on around the world (Visit www.heatisonline.org/weather.cfm for an extensive list). The Facts The IPCC states that the next 100 years (Some scientists such as Nobel Laureate, Paul Crutzen, are now saying that these figures are too low and could rise anywhere Mount Kilimanjaro will lose all its ice, rare
(three species (just to name a few
. Along with these hot temperatures, Australia has consequently experienced some if its
driest months and severest drought. In 2007, Northern England experienced a whole months worth of rain in just a few hours in many places, Southwest Pakistan was hit by monsoon floods affecting 800,000 and Indonesia experienced intense storms which left more than 340,000 homeless. Ukraine experienced their worst drought in a century, which cut crop yields by 60% and resulted in a rapid increase in food prices. Tokyo (the capital of Japan) had never gone so late without snow in the winter season according to the Japan Meteorological
the global temperature will rise between 7C and 10C with a one degree increase in temperature species will be wiped out coral reefs will be largely destroyed and Island nations will submerge under the rising sea levels. With a two degree increase Greenland will tip into irreversible melt (accelerating sea-level rise and threatening coastal cities around the world) species that require a stable ice platform for survival will become extinct in the Arctic and shrinking snowfields will threaten water supplies. Two degrees is the point beyond which certain major ecosystems begin collapsing. Having, until then, absorbed carbon dioxide, they begin to release it. Beyond this point.climate change is out of our hands: it will accelerate without our help
). Scientists predict that in the Queensland (Australia), Great Barrier Reef bored or sleepy by reading this? Youre not alone. This information is heavy and can be hard to take in. Hang in there. other Californian University) in his book Heat: How to stop the planet burning states
by 1.1C to 6.4C over
such as the
Feeling a little
, polar bears and
George Monbiot (columnist for the Guardian and Visiting Professor at the School of the Built Environment at Oxford Brookes
. A three degree increase will result in Perth (my home
town), Sydney and other parts of Australia experiencing water shortages, the world will experience a net food deficit, the Amazonian ecosystem will collapse and glacial retreat in the Himalayas means the Indus River will run dry and millions of environmental refugees will flee Pakistan. Feeling depressed? If the answer is yes then youve probably read enough to get an idea of how serious the impact of just a one or two degree increase in global temperature will be. If you realise that we need to do whatever we can to not go beyond two degrees in global temperature, you can skip to the next chapter. For those of you who need further convincing (or if you have a strong stomach) you can read on to find out what is predicted to happen with a four, five and six degree increase in global temperatur e. A four degree increase in temperature will lead to a third of Bangladesh being threatened by rising seas and millions will become climate refugees, all glaciers will disappear in the Alps, further reducing water supplies in central Europe. Permafrost melt in Siberia will release billions of tonnes of greenhouse gases thereby exacerbating global warming. A five degree increase means the earth will become hotter than any other time in 55 million years and methane hydrate will be released from underneath oceans resulting in tsunamis in coastal regions. In total 180 days
a six degree increase will lead to the mass extinction of species (90 100% loss of core habitat 251 million years ago (the endPermian mass extinction) there was a temperature increase between 6C 8C degrees. This led to coral reefs dying and 90% of the earths species being wiped out this period gives us an indication of the possible impact this rise in temperature could cause. If six degrees of warming does occur then it is likely human beings will become extinct too climate change will affect the global economy and could end up costing $7 trillion. Failure to act could result in global GDP being 20% lower the benefits of strong and early action far outweigh the economic costs of not taking action. The science is in and it is painfully clear, global warming is real and it is happening faster than ever predicted. We have a moment to take action. To avoid some of the worst impacts we need to act now to dramatically cut our greenhouse gas emissions
of the year will be above 35C in South Australia and the Northern Territory. By this stage most of the world will be unin habitable. Finally, for most Australian vertebrates). . This warming may have been due to a series of volcanic eruptions releasing CO2 and SO2. George Monbiot states short sighted people none of the above environmental impacts really matter. Its all about the economy. According to the Stern review (a 700 page report on the economics of climate change compiled by British Economist Sir Nicholas Stern) The main conclusion of this report was that if we act now to dramatically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst effects of climate change then 1% of global GDP (measure of economic activity) per annum is required to be invested. than it otherwise might be. Clearly .
. For some
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Timeframe Abrupt climate change is near certain empirically proven Preuss 8

IMPACTS: On the Threshold of Abrupt Climate Changes Paul Preuss; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; SEPTEMBER 17, 2008 http://newscenter.lbl.gov/feature-stories/2008/09/17/impacts-on-the-threshold-of-abrupt-climate-changes/ Sparked by the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize that was shared by Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the reality of global warming finally got through to the majority of the worlds population.
Most people think of
climate change as something that occurs only gradually
, however, with average temperature changing two or three degrees Celsius over a century or more; this is the rate at which
But climate change has occurred with frightening rapidity in the past and will almost certainly do so again Perhaps the most famous example is a period called the Younger Dryas warming resumed so abruptly that global temperatures shot up 10 C in just 10 years. Because civilizations hadnt yet emerged, complex human societies escaped this particular roller-coaster ride. abrupt climate change is highly likely in the future, with wide-ranging economic and social effects.
forcing mechanisms operate, such as the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels or widespread changes in land use. . the reverse hiccup in a warming trend that began 15,000 years ago and eventually ended the last ice age. Roughly 2,000 years after it started, the warming trend suddenly reversed, and temperatures fell back to near-glacial conditions; Earth stayed cold for (named for an alpine wildflower). Then over a thousand years, Nevertheless, some form of
Cutting emissions solves UCS 4

Abrupt Climate Change Union of Concerned Scientists July 9, 2004 http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/abrupt-climate-change.html Can we avoid abrupt climate change? Yes. While
abrupt climate change is not a certainty, human-caused climate change makes

What is certain is that human-caused climate change is already under way, and is expected to continue over the next century as a result of our emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases to the
abrupt events more likely .
atmosphere. Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are higher today than they have been for more than 400,000 years. Earth's surface temperature has increased measurably over the past 100 years, and 10 of the warmest years on record have occurred since 1990. This warming has
caused changes in rainfallsome regions have become wetter while others have become drierand droughts and severe rainfall events have become more common.
By making choices now to reduce our
emissions of heat-trapping gases, we can slow the rate of global warming and reduce the likelihood of unexpected climate changes
.
Must act before 2020 Calvin 2008

Global Fever Time has become so short that we must turn around the annual emissions growth before 2020 to avoid saddling todays students with the world of refugees and genocides It means immediately scaling up technolog ies that we know will work, not waiting for something better that could take decades to debug.
[William H. (Professor emeritus at the University of Washington in Seattle and the author of 14 books). . Pg 239. //Jamie] post Kyoto treaty.
that results if were too slow. That means not waiting for a better deal on some
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Economy Impact Calc
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Nuke War
Economic growth is the key to preventing nuclear war Morgan 11
The American Economy and Americas Global Power Iwan Morgan; professor of US Studies and director of the American Presidency Centre at the UCL-Institute of the Americas, previously Professor of US Studies at the Institute for the Study of the Americas, University of London; 2011 http://www2.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/publications/reports/pdf/SR009/morgan.pdf
Americas economic strength has long underwritten its leading role in world affairs tax revenues generated by economic growth fund its massive military spending, the foundation of its global hard power. Americas economic success is also fundamental to its soft power in the international economy. Finally, prosperity generally makes the American public more willing to support an expansive foreign policy a healthy economy was a prerequisite for American power no problem the country faced was more serious than the economic crisis without a recovery, we couldnt afford to do the things necessary to make the country strong again or make a serious effort to reduce the dangers of nuclear war Nothing was possible unless
. The buoyant and the promotion of its free-market values on the world stage, whereas economic problems tend to engender popular introspection. Ronald Reagan understood that when he became president amid conditions of runaway inflation and recession. As he put it in his memoirs, In 1981, not even the need to modernise our armed forces because . Nor could America regain confidence in itself and stand tall once again.
we made the economy sound again Today the United States has to deal with far worse economic problems These include the near-meltdown of the financial system in 2008 the so-called Great Recession of 2007-2009 a fragile recovery that could well falter into a doubledip recession The current state of the American economy confirms the historical trend that downturns resulting from financial crisis are far more serious than other recessions Americas fiscal and economic weaknesses are interlinked because the revival of economic growth is the necessary first step in dealing with Americas public debt problem. To date, the woeful set of economic and fiscal indicators has not seriously diminished Americas global power, but it threatens to have catastrophic impact in time
. the impact of than it did when Reagan became president. the fallout from the most severe financial crisis since 1929 ( ), the worst recession since the Great Depression ( ), in 2012, the blowback effects of a European debt crisis, and a future of unsustainable public debt without a correction of fiscal course. (as in the 1870s, 1890s, and 1930s) . However, the debt overhang adds a new and very worrying dimension. Indeed has had some effect and much greater perhaps .
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Econ Turns Environment

Economic decline turns all environmental progress 4 warrants Richard 8
Counter-Point: 4 Reasons Why Recession is BAD for the Environment Michael Graham Richard; Business / Corporate Responsibility; February 6, 2008 http://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/counter-point-4-reasons-why-recession-is-bad-for-the-environment.html
here are eco-reasons why we should wish a speedy recovery Firstly, when squeezed, companies will reduce their investments into research & development and green programs. These are usually not short-term profit centers, so that is what's axed first Secondly, average people, when money is tight, will look for less expensive products that usually means that greener products won't make it Thirdly, there's less money going into the stock markets and bank loans are harder to get, which means that many small firms and startups working on the breakthrough green technologies can have trouble getting funds or can even go bankrupt Fourthly, during economic crises, voters want the government to appear to be doing something about the economy They'll accept all kinds of measures and laws, including those that aren't good for the environment. Don't even think about progress on global warming
As a counter-point to Lloyd's tongue-in-cheek post about 10 Ways the Recession Can Help the Environment, won't get into non-green reasons here): some . Some progress has been made in the past few years, it would be sad to lose ground now. (duh). Right now, . Maybe someday if we start taxing "bads" instead of "goods" (pollution, carbon, toxins instead of labor, income, capital gains) the least expensive products will also be the greenest, but right now that's not the case. of tomorrow , especially if their clients or backers decide to make cuts. (even if it's government that screwed things up in the first place). Massive corn subsidies anyone? ...
(we
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- - Case Blocks - -
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AT Inherency
An inherent barrier to the plan exists First, Dutzik et al 10 under solvency says that current funding for high speed rail is inadequate to develop a true system. Second, Dutzik also says that stable funding is critical even if funding occurs every once in awhile, it is unable to build an effective high speed rail system, because investors, contractors, and industries are hesitant to invest in a high speed rail system if funding starts and stops every year or so. Third, There is NO federal funding for high speed rail Peterman et al. 12
The Development of High Speed Rail in the United States: Issues and Recent Events Congressional Research Service - David Randall Peterman, Coordinator Analyst in Transportation Policy John Frittelli Specialist in Transportation Policy William J. Mallett Specialist in Transportation Policy; June 28, 2012 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42584.pdf The provision of $8 billion for intercity passenger rail projects in the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA; P.L. 111-5) reinvigorated efforts to expand intercity passenger rail transportation in the United States. The Obama Administration subsequently announced that it would ask Congress to provide $1 billion annually for high speed rail (HSR) projects. This initiative was reflected in the Presidents budgets for FY2010 through FY2013. Congress approved $2.5 billion for high speed and intercity passenger rail in FY2010 (P.L. 111-117), but zero in FY2011 (P.L. 112-10) and FY2012 (P.L. 112-55). In addition, the FY2011 appropriations act rescinded $400 million from prior year unobligated balances of program funding.
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AT Inherency (Cities)
Cities dont solve they dont have the resources to build or maintain a national high speed rail system Basak 12-7
High-speed rail: Comfortable, affordable, & on time Sonali Basak; rising journalist, business and economics reporter and creative writer; December 7, 2012 http://basakwrites.wordpress.com/2012/12/07/high-speed-rail-comfortable-affordable-on-time/ Were talking about a very expensive system, transit systems are very expensive. LaHood said.
Communities dont have the resources they need

all of
and so weve talked to the mayor about trying
to leverage money from the city from money from federal government. Snow said if he had to prioritize between money spent on high-speed transit and local transit, he said assistance would need to go to people who are already dependent on service.
and city level and inner city transportation by and large are in a state of disrepair not just of regional importance but of national importance
.
, Snow said.
Municipal Thats an issue
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AT Construction Turn
First, this assumes no other infrastructure is built Westina AND Kagesona 12
Centre for Transport Studies, Royal Institute of Technology Department of Transport Science, Royal Institute of Technology. Both in Stockholm Sweden [Jonas Westina, Per Kgesona, Can high speed rail offset its embedded emissions?, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 17, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 17] The method used in this paper does not capture all aspects of its subject. As already mentioned, the indirect effect
on emissions of greenhouse gases from being able to use existing rail infrastructure for new types of traffic, after opening a new high speed line, is not covered. This aspect is analyzed in kerman (2011). However, to be able to make up for any sizeable carbon deficit of a new highspeed line that does not attract enough traffic, the indirect climate benefits of making new use of the existing line would have to be significant.
If so, it may be better to focus on how to accommodate those types of railway services rather than investing in a new line dedicated to high speed passenger transport. Another aspect not considered is the possibility that, in the absence of investment in high speed lines, growing demand for rail services would require investment in other kinds of additional capacity where construction would also affect climate change. However, there may also exist other types of response to a growing
imbalance between supply and demand that give rise to fewer emissions, e.g. congestion charges and incentives to improve the utilization of inland waterways and/or short sea shipping routes, and the partial replacement of business travel by telecommunication.
Second, HSR solves construction and maintenance emissions alleviates pressure on roads KERMAN 11
Division of Environmental Strategies Research, KTH (Royal Institute of Technology), Stockholm
[Jonas kerman, The role of high-speed rail in mitigating climate change The Swedish case Europabanan from a life cycle perspective, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 16, Issue 3, May 2011, Pages 208217]
5.3. Construction, maintenance and operation of roads and airports
The reduced car and truck traffic owing to Europabanan could reduce the need for road investment and maintenance. However, it is difficult to assess the amount of road building that would be avoided by building the high-speed line. The rough estimate we make here, based on existing national plans for road building in the affected corridors, is that road investments of different kinds, corresponding to 100 km of four-lane new motorways, would be avoided. According to Karlsson and Carlson (2010), building and maintaining these motorways would entail emissions of 4800 tons of CO2 per annum over a 40-year period. The permanent reduction in carbon storage due to deforestation of a 50-m wide corridor would produce another 1750 tons per annum. Operation is estimated at 1280 tons per annum. The data used entails some underestimation of emissions reductions, since no bridges and tunnels have been included. Investing more in high-speed rail might reduce investments in roads because of public budget limitations, but this
has not fully been accounted for. The data on construction of airports per passenger are from Uppenberg et al. (2003). The resulting annual emissions reductions is comparatively small, 2600 tons, which could be expected due to the limited need for air infrastructure compared with road and rail. Regarding operation of airports, the data used are for Arlanda Airport (2008), which would be the airport most affected by Europabanan. The resulting emissions reductions is 9500 tons, a figure that includes internal transport, heating, electricity production and some maintenance of aircraft. The majority of emissions are caused by electricity production, given the assumption of a carbon intensity of 160 g/kWh. 6. Greenhouse gas emissions and sensitivity analysis Greenhouse gas emissions are presented in Fig. 2 as the annual change in emissions in 2025/2030 comparing the HSR and Freight measures and the reference scenario. The annual emissions reductions are 0.55 million tons with nearly 60% coming from a shift from truck to rail freight, as old tracks are released, and 40% is due to a shift from air and road to high-speed rail travel. The reduction can be compared with the 6 million tons from Swedish domestic long-distance transport in 2005. Fig. 2. Annual changes in greenhouse gas emissions in the HSR and Freight measures scenario 2025/2030 compared with the reference scenario 2025/2030. Note: The six bars on the left refer to emissions from propulsion and fuel production, while the three on the right refer to vehicles and infrastructure effects. Railway construction etc. also includes maintenance and operation. Emissions
associated with the
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construction and maintenance of the new railway are around 4 million tons, of which emissions for construction stand for 51%. Widening the perspective to all parts of the transport system reveals a reduced need for, e.g. cars, roads and airports, which in turn means that emissions are avoided . These system effects are seldom considered in studies of new railways. Although the extent of these emissions reductions is uncertain, together they may offset nearly half the emissions increase associated with construction, maintenance and operation of the new railway, as indicated in the figure. The HSR and Freight
measures scenario 2025/2030 also gives significant reductions in oil use, which in the base case amount to 2.5 TWh annually.
Third, HSR overtakes its own construction emissions rapidly ETN 11

Wider benefits of high-speed rail confirmed in new studies Dec 09, 2011 ETN; Global Travel and Industry News; http://www.eturbonews.com/26841/wider-benefits-high-speed-railconfirmed-new-studies
The carbon footprint of high-speed rail can be up to 14 times less carbon intensive than car travel and up to 15 times less than aviation, even when measured over the full life-cycle of planning, construction, and operation . The figures are outlined in two new research reports detailing the ways in which railways contribute to a more sustainable transport
system. Using case studies and new data, the reports, carried out by consultancy, Systra for the International Union of Railways (UIC), also demonstrates the benefits of high-speed rail in terms of speed, reliability, comfort, and safety. The main report, High Speed Rail and Sustainability, considers the social, economic, and environmental aspects of high-speed rail performance, and
The accompanying background report, Carbon Footprint of High Speed Rail takes four case studies of high-speed rail lines (two in Europe and two in Asia) and carries out a transparent, robust assessment of carbon emissions for each route, including the planning, construction (track and rolling stocks), and operation phases. For example, emissions on the high-speed Mditerrane line from Valence to Marseille average 11.0 g CO2 per passenger km, compared to 151.6 g CO2 per passenger km for car and 164.0 g CO2 per passenger km for air. The environmental pay back time for this route the length of time it takes for the emissions saved by the impact of the new high-speed services to overtake the additional emissions produced through the lines construction was just 5.3 years . New high-speed lines can lead to significant reductions in CO2 emissions by creating modal shift from air to rail. For example, 48,000 less tons of CO2 are now produced on the Madrid to Seville corridor, following completion of the highspeed line and have a lower direct land-take requirement than roads (2.5ha/km v. 1.3ha/km). HSR, which is only operated on the electrified network, can directly benefit from the greening of the energy supply network, which over time will reduce its carbon emissions even further. The economic benefits of high-speed rail are also featured: the reports show how high-speed rail supports and helps economic development in the cities that are linked by these routes. An example cited is the French city of Lille, where a new inner-city, high-speed station was built to help stimulate regeneration of the city. Over a 13-year period from 1990-2003, the number of tourists in the city increased 15-fold.
makes a compelling case for why rail has major advantages in all three areas. Lines,
Fourth, Construction emissions are a one-time cost, our solvency outweighs on specificity, we solve by reducing congestion which solves 20% of emissions, and by trading off with inefficient cars
22
AT Ice Age Turn

1. This concedes the internal link between carbon emissions and warming 2. This also concedes that case solves carbon emissions, therefore this flow boils down to impact calc 3. We outweigh on timeframe ice age is tens of thousands of years off Chameides 8
Global Warming and Predictions of an Impending Ice Age Predicting Future Climate Bill Chameides; Dean, and Nicholas Professor of the Environment Earth & Ocean Sciences PhD, Yale University MS, Yale University BA, SUNY Binghamton; October 30th, 2008 http://blogs.nicholas.duke.edu/thegreengrok/futureclimate/
Our current climate regime - a regime weve had for the past ~2 million years - is characterized by long periods of ice ages and shorter warm periods. The last ice age ended about 12,000 years ago, and since then weve been in a warm period. Some argue that global warming is no concern, since the Earth will naturally switch back to an ice age. This is very likely to be true: an ice age is almost certainly in our planets future. But its a question of when. Our current concerns about climate change focus on the coming decades to the next century - the time period relevant to our childrens and grandchildrens experience. But the ice age/warm period cycle operates on a time scale of tens of thousands of years. Scientists have figured out that ice ages are triggered by subtle changes in the Earths orbit about the Sun. The next such triggering is not expected to occur any time soon tens of thousands of years from now. Not quite
soon enough to be relevant to our childrens well-being.
4. We outweigh on probability unaminous scientific consensus exists for catastrophic warming the same cant be said about cooling, means our internal is more probable
23
AT No Intl Warming Solvency

We spill over globally - Modelling Wirth et al 3 (Timothy E, President of the UN Foundation along with C. Boyden Gray and John D. Podesta also of the UN Foundation, The Future of Energy Policies, Foreign
Affairs, July/August, p. 132, lexis).
U.S. strategic energy policy must take into account the three central concerns outlined above -- economic security, environmental protection, and poverty alleviation -- and set aggressive goals for overcoming them. Leadership from Washington is critical because the [U.S.] United States is so big, so economically powerful, and so vulnerable to oil shocks and terrorism. This is a time of opportunity, too -- a major technological revolution is beginning in energy, with great potential markets. And finally, the reality is that where the [U.S.] United States goes, others will likely follow. America's example for good or for ill sets the tempo and the direction of action far beyond its borders and far into the future.
Energy is a common thread weaving through the fabric of critical American interests and global challenges.
24
AT Adaption Solves Warming

Try-or-die Warming is an existential risk, we wont adapt Mazo 10
PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA, Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it, pg. 122
best estimates for global warming to the end of the century range from 2.5-4.~C above pre-industrial levels, depending on the scenario. Even in the best-case range of likely warming runs from 3.1--7.1C. Even keeping emissions at constant 2000 levels (which have already been exceeded), global temperature would still be expected to reach 1.2C (O'9""1.5C)above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century." Without early and severe reductions in emissions, the effects of climate change in the second half of the twenty-first century are likely to be catastrophic for the stability and security of countries in the developing world - not to
The scenario, the low end of the likely range is 1.6C, and in the worst 'business as usual' projections, which actual emissions have been matching, the mention the associated human tragedy. Climate change could even undermine the strength and stability of emerging and advanced economies, beyond the knock-on effects on security of widespread state failure and collapse in developing countries.' And although they have been condemned as melodramatic and alarmist, many informed observers believe that
unmitigated climate change beyond the end of the century could pose an existential threat to civilisation." What is certain is that there is no precedent in human experience for such rapid change or such climatic conditions, and even in the best case adaptation to these extremes would mean profound social, cultural and political changes.
25
AT Dirty Grid
Even assuming the dirtiest grids HSR produces less emissions than cars UCS 12
State of Charge: Electric Vehicles Global Warming Emissions and Fuel-Cost Savings Across the United States Union of Concerned Scientists June 2012 http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/smart-transportation-solutions/advanced-vehicle-technologies/electric-cars/emissions-and-charging-costs-electric-cars.html
Electric vehicles (EVs) burn no gasoline and have no tailpipe emissions, but producing the electricity used to charge them does generate global warming emissions. The amount of these emissions, however, varies significantly based on the mix of energy sources used to power a region's electricity grid. For
example, coal-fired power plants produce nearly twice the global warming emissions of natural gas-fired power plants, while renewable sources like wind and solar power produce virtually no emissions at all. The UCS report, State of Charge: Electric Vehicles' Global Warming Emissions and Fuel-Cost Savings Across the United States, compares the global warming emissions from
Nationwide, EVs charged from the electricity grid produce lower global warming emissions than the average compact gasoline-powered vehicle (with a fuel economy of 27 miles per gallon) even when the electricity is produced primarily from coal in regions with the dirtiest
EVs with those from gasoline-powered vehicles and finds that:
electricity grids . In regions with the cleanest electricity grids, EVs produce lower global warming emissions than even the most fuel-efficient hybrids. EVs charged entirely from renewable sources like wind and solar power produce virtually no global warming emissions. The report evaluates regional electricity grids
across the United States based on the global warming emissions produced from electricity generation, and then compares the emissions generated by charging an EV with those produced by
Nearly half of Americans (45%) live in the best regions where EVs produce lower global warming emissions than even the most fuel-efficient gasoline hybrids on the market today (greater than 50 mpg). Another third (38%) live in better areas where EVs produce emissions comparable to the best gasoline hybrid vehicles (41 50 mpg). A minority (17%) reside in good regions where emissions from EVs are comparable to the most fuel-efficient non-hybrid gasoline vehicles (31 40 mpg).
gasoline-powered vehicles. The report finds that:
26
AT Cold worse than Heat

Heat kills three times as many people as cold Gardner 12
Global Warming Will Cause Rise in Death Rates Amanda Gardner; HealthDay Reporter; June 28, 2012 http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Healthday/story?id=4507735&page=1&singlePage=true#.UKBgO8XA-So THURSDAY, June 28 (HealthDay News) -- Sizzling temperatures brought on by global warming will kill more people in the summer months, a new study suggests, and that toll won't be offset by fewer deaths during milder winters. "The results suggest that mortality [from hot temperatures] won't be compensated by a reduction in mortality in winter," said study author Mercedes Medina-Ramon, a research fellow at the Harvard School of Public Health's department of environmental health. According to the study, global warming is expected to increase the average temperature of Earth between 1.7 and 4.9 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. It is also expected to result in more scorching summer days and fewer freezing winter ones. It's no secret that extreme temperatures can kill -- 35,000 people died in the European heat wave of 2003, for example. But scientists don't yet know what the effect of global warming will be on death rates. "It seems that global warming will increase deaths due to extreme hot temperatures. That we already know," Medina-Ramon said. "What we didn't know was if that would be compensated by a reduction in mortality during the winter because it's less cold." Medina-Ramon and study co-author Joel Schwartz, also of Harvard, looked at daily death and weather data for more than 6.5 million deaths occurring from 1989 to 2000 in 50 U.S. cities. During two-day cold snaps, deaths went up 1.59 percent. Many of the deaths were due to heart attacks and cardiac arrest. But during scorchers, death rates went up by much more: 5.74 percent. The effect of extreme cold was similar between cities, suggesting that the use of central heating may have prevented some deaths. But the effects of heat were wildly different, with the largest effects seen in cities with milder summers, less air conditioning and denser populations. The findings were published in the June 28 online issue of Occupational and Environmental Medicine. "In the U.S., most people have heating in their homes so a change in cold temperature won't make as much of a difference," said Medina-Ramon. "It won't make as much of a difference as hot temperatures because there are more people who don't have an air conditioner at home."
Err aff potential deaths outweigh Wunderground, no date

Heat Mortality Wunderground http://www.wunderground.com/climate/heatmortality.asp I don't trust any of these numbers, since heat and cold mortality statistics are highly uncertain and easy to cherry pick to show a desired result. It is rather unproductive to argue about how many people die due to heat and cold in the current climate or in a future climate. Excess heat deaths due to climate change should not get as much attention as the potential for death due to reduction in crop yields due to increased heat and drought, regional collapses of the oceanic food chain from the steady acidification of the oceans, and the wars these conditions might trigger.
27
AT Cars dont contribute much to warming

Cars are comparatively the biggest contributor to warming Voiland 10
Road transportation emerges as key driver of warming: NASA analysis Adam Voiland; NASA Earth Observatory, graduated from Br own University with a degree in geology-biology, working toward a masters degree in science writing at Johns Hopkins University; Feb 18 2010 http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-02-26/road-transportation-emerges-key-driver-warming-nasa-analysis NCHO
climatologists have discovered and described certain airborne chemicals that can trap incoming sunlight and warm the climate, while others cool the planet by blocking the Sun's rays a new study led by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies analyzed the climate impacts by different economic sectors. Each part of the economy, such as ground transportation or agriculture, emits a unique portfolio of gases and aerosols that affect the climate in different ways and on different timescales Motor vehicles give off only minimal amounts of sulfates and nitrates, both pollutants
For decades, have studied the gases and particles that have potential to alter Earth's climate. They . Now Nadine Unger of offers a more intuitive way to understand what's changing the Earth's climate. Rather than analyzing impacts by chemical species, scientists have .
(GISS) in New York City
that cool climate, though they produce significant amounts of pollutants that warm climate such as carbon dioxide, black carbon, and ozone We wanted to provide the information in a way that would be more helpful for policy makers This approach will make it easier to identify sectors for which emission reductions will be most beneficial for climate and those which may produce unintended consequences
. Credit: NASA's Langley Research Center Larger image " ," Unger said. " ." In a paper published online on Feb. 3 by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Unger and colleagues described how they used a climate model to estimate the impact of 13 sectors of the economy from 2000 to 2100. They based their calculations on real-world inventories of emissions collected by scientists around the world, and they assumed that those emissions would stay relatively constant in the future. Snapshots of the Future In their analysis,
motor vehicles emerged as the greatest contributor to atmospheric warming now and in the near term. Cars, buses, and trucks release pollutants and greenhouse gases that promote warming, while emitting few aerosols that counteract it. The on-road transportation sector releases significant amounts of carbon dioxide, black carbon, and ozoneall substances that cause warming
that it actually contributes a significant amount of cooling to the system. And biomass burning -- which occurs mainly as a result of tropical forest fires, deforestation, savannah and shrub fires -- emits large amounts of organic carbon particles that block solar radiation.
. In contrast, the industrial sector
releases many of the same gases, but it also tends to emit sulfates and other aerosols that cause cooling by reflecting light and altering clouds. Credit: NASA GISS/Unger Larger image The researchers found that the burning of household biofuels -- primarily wood and animal dung for home heating and cooking -- contribute the second most warming. And raising livestock, particularly methane-producing cattle, contribute the third most. On the other end of the spectrum, the industrial sector releases such a high proportion of sulfates and other cooling aerosols
The new analysis offers policy makers and the public a far more detailed and comprehensive understanding of how to mitigate climate change most effectively Targeting on-road transportation is a win-win-win," she said. "It's good for the climate in the short term and long term, and it's good for our health
, Unger and colleagues assert. " ."
28
AT 31000 scientists disagree with warming

The list of 30,000 scientists is false, inflated, and it outweighed by scientific consensus Angliss 10
Scrutinising the 31,000 scientists in the OISM Petition Project Brian Angliss; BSEE from Pennsylvania State University and MSEE from the University of Colorado, works as an electrical engineer at a Denver-area aerospace firm and has worked in the storage and telecommunications equipment industries in the past, science editor and climate/energy writer, and member of the Society of Environmental Journalists; 11 March 2010 http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=158 In early 2008, the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine (OISM) published their Petition Project, a list of names from people who all claimed to be scientists and who rejected the science behind the theory of anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming (AGW). This was an attempt to by the OISM to claim that there were far more scientists opposing AGW theory than there are supporting it. This so-called petition took on special importance coming after the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Fourth Assessment Report, and specifically the Working Group 1 (WG1) report on the science and attribution of climate change to human civilization. The WG1 report was authored and reviewed by approximately 2000 scientists with varying expertise in climate and related fields, and so having
30,000 scientists doubt on the also false

metallurgy, general science can take this list seriously.
that rejected the WG1s conclusions
IPCCs conclusions and, indirectly, on the
a list of over was a powerful meme that AGW skeptics and deniers could use to cast entire theory of climate disruption It is
. And in fact, this meme has become widespread in both legacy and new media today.
. According to the Petition Project qualifications page, Signatories are approved for inclusion in the Petition Project list if they have obtained formal educational degrees at the level of Bachelor of Science or higher in appropriate scientific fields. The fields
that are considered appropriate by the OISM are as follows: Atmosphere, Earth, and Environment fields: atmospheric science, climatology, meteorology, astronomy, astrophysics, earth science, geochemistry, geology, geophysics, geoscience, hy drology, environmental engineering, environmental science, forestry, oceanography Computers and Math: computer science, mathematics, statistics Physics and Aerospace: physics, nuclear engineering, mechanical engineering, aerospace engineering Chemistry: chemistry, chemical engineering Biochemistry, Biology, and Agriculture: biochemistry, biophysics, biology, ecology, entomology, zoology, animal science, agricultural science, agricultural engineering, plant science, food science Medicine: medical science, medicine General Engineering and General Science: engineering, electrical engineering,
The OISMs qualifications for being a scientist are expansive What expertise does a nuclear engineer medical doctor food scientist or mechanical engineer have that makes them qualified to have an informed opinion on climate disruption? How many of these names are working climate scientists instead of teachers or stay-at-homemoms with engineering degrees? How many of these people has actually published a peer-reviewed paper on climate? How many people realized that they could lie about having a science degree and their deception would never be discovered? its literally impossible to know because the names and degrees on the list cannot be verified by anyone outside the OISM. We can only take the OISMs word that theyre all real names, that all the degrees are correct, and so on. This does not stand up to the most basic tests of scientific credibility
or a or a the cause(s) of recent science or math took a look at the card that served as a signature (click on the image to see a larger version) and At this point
, and as such there are a number of questions that have to be answered before we
. Unfortunately, the OISMs list has
had its credibility fabricated for it by individuals and groups as diverse as Steve Milloy of Fox News (see this link for a S&R investigation into the background and tactics of Steve Milloy), L. Brent Bozell of conservative news site Newsbusters and founder of the conservative Media Research Center, Benita M. Dodd of the Georgia Public Policy Foundation, the libertarian/conservative site American Thinker (a site that has regularly failed to fact-check their AGW posts), conservative commentator Deroy Murdock (who works on Project 21 with the wife of one of Steve Milloys long-time associates), RightSideNews, Dakota Voice, Dennis T. Avery of the Hudson Institute, Lawrence Solomon of the Financial Post, Michelle Malkin, and the Competitive Enterprise Institute, to name just a few of the better known. As a result, the OISMs petition has been elevated to a level of credibility that is arguably undeserved. While its not possible to test the validity of OISM list directly, it is possible to test the conclusions that have been drawn from the OISM list. Specifically, we can test what percentage the 30,000 scientists listed on the OISM petition represent when compared to the total number of scientists in the U.S. And we can then compare that to the percentage represented by the 2000 IPCC AR4 WG1-associated scientists as compared to the estimate number of U.S. climate-related scientists.
According to the OISM website, anyone with a Bachelors, Masters, or Doctorate of Philosophy in a field related to physical sciences is qualified as a scientist
Ed. since the 1970-71 school year (click on the image for a larger version). The numbers have been corrected to account for the fact that PhDs will usually have MS degrees as well, and that both are preceded by BS degrees. As you can see, Table 1 shows that
. In addition, the OISM sent the petition cards pictured above only to individuals within the U.S. Based on this information, we
can us the OISMs own guidelines to determine how many scientists there are in the U.S. and what percentage of those scientists are represented by the OISM petition. The U.S. Department of Education tracks the number of graduates from institutions of higher education every year, and has done so since either the 1950-51 or 1970-71 school years, depending on what specifically the Dept. of Ed. was interested in. This data was last updated in the Digest of Education Statistics: 2008. Were specifically interested in the number of degrees that have been awarded in the various scientific disciplines as defined by the OISM in the list above. This information is available in the following tables within the 2008 Digest: 296, 298, 302, 304, 310, 311, and 312. Table 1 below show how many graduates there were in the various categories defined by the Dept. of
there were over 10.6 million science graduates as defined by the OISM since the 1970-71 school year. This is a conservative estimate Many of these individuals are still alive today and would be considered scientists according to the OISM definition
as illustrated by the 242,000 graduates in biological and biomedical sciences from 1950-51 through 1969-70 alone, never mind the 166,000 engineering graduates, and so on. thereof. The OISM website lists how many signatures they have for scientists in each of their categories. Given the number of graduates and the number of signatures claimed by the OISM, we can calculate the percentage of OISM-defined scientists who signed as referenced to the total.
the OISM signatories represent a small fraction (~0.3%) of all science graduates, even when we use the OISMs own definition of a scientist However If we remove all the engineers, medical professionals, computer scientists, and mathematicians, then the 31,478 scientists turn into 13,245 actual scientists Of course, not all of them are working in science its still a reasonable quick estimate we cant be sure beyond the 39 climatologists, although we can reasonably assume that the number is far less than the 13,245 actual scientists
These results are shown in Table 2 below. In other words, . , as mentioned above, its entirely reasonable to ask whether a veterinarian or forestry manager or electrical engineer should qualify as a scientist. , as opposed to scientists according to the OISMs expansive definition. , but since some medical professionals and statisticians do work in science, . However, its not reasonable to expect that all of those actual scientists are working in climate sciences. Certainly the 39 climatologists, but after that, it gets much murkier. Most geologists dont work as climate scientists, although some certainly do. Most meteorologists do weather forecasting, but understanding the weather is radically different than understanding climate. So
claimed by the OISM 13,245 scientists is only 0.1% of the scientists graduated in the U.S. since the 1970-71 school year
. claims 341 meteorologists as petition signatories. Thats only 2.4%.
. We can, however, compare the number of atmospheric scientists, climagologists, ocean scientists, and meteorologists who signed this petition to the number of members of the various professional organizations. For example,
the American Geophysical Union (AGU) has over 55,000 members, of which over 7,200 claim that atmospheric sciences is their primary field. The OISM claims 152 atmospheric scientists. Compared to the atmospheric scientist membership in the AGU, the OISM signatories are only 2.1%, and this estimate is high given the fact that the AGU does not claim all atmospheric scientists as members. The AGU hydrology group has over 6,000 members who call hydrology their primary field. The OISM list has 22 names that claim to be hydrologists, or 0.4%. The AGU ocean sciences group claims approximately 6,800 members. The OISM has 83 names, or 1.2%. And again, given that AGU membership is not required to be a practicing ocean scientists, this number is inflated. The American Meteorological Society claims over 14,000 members and the OISM
Its clear that the OISM names dont represent a significant number of
29
scientists when compared to either the total number of science graduates in the U.S. or to the number of practicing scientists who work in likely relevant fields 84% of climate scientists surveyed personally believe human-induced warming is occurring and that *o+nly 5% believe that that human activity does not contribute to greenhouse warming.
. But thats not all. Over recent years, various organizations have set out to estimate just how widespread the supposed scientific consensus on AGW actually is. Two recent efforts were conducted by the Statistical Assessment Service (STATS) at George Mason University and by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. The STATS survey found that The STATS survey involved a random sampling of 489 selfidentified members of either the American Meteorological Society or the American Geophysical Union and it has a theoretical sampling error of +/- 4%. The Pew survey was taken in early 2009 and asked over 2000 members of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) their opinion on various scientific issues, including climate disruption. 84% of AAAS respondents felt that warming is due to human activity compared to only 10% who felt that warming is due to natural causes. The AAAS has over 10 million members, and the results of the survey are statistically valid for the entire population with a theoretical sampling error of +/- 2.5%.
84% of 10 million scientist members of the AAAS is 8.4 million

. 84% of the climate scientists (conservatively just the members of the atmospheric science group of the AGU) is,
scientists who agree that climate disruption is human-caused

conservatively, 6,000 scientists who have direct and expert knowledge of climate disruption.
The 13,245 scientists and 152 possible climate scientists who signed the OISM petition represent a small minority of the totals
. The IPCC AR4 WG1 report was written and reviewed by approximately 2000 scientists. If we assume that the 20,000 AGU members who claim to be atmospheric scientists, ocean scientists, or hydrologists represent the pool of potential experts in climate s cience in the U.S., then approximately 10% of all climate scientists were directly involved in creating the over 1000 page report. That compares to less
A more recent survey asked the question "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?". 97.5% of climatologists who were actively publishing papers on climate change responded yes as the level of active research and specialization in climate science increases, so does agreement that humans are significantly changing global temperatures
than 1% of all OISM scientists who mailed a pre-printed postcard. of earth scientists .(Doran 2009). What is most interesting about this study was that petition. But given the fact that
. Figure 1: Response to the survey question "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global
temperatures?" (Doran 2009) General public data come from a 2008 Gallup poll. Ultimately, The OISM petition will continue to rear its ugly head until its fabricated credibility has bee n thoroughly demolished. Social conservatives and libertarians, each of which has their own ideological reasons to push the OISM petition, have been effective at keeping the 30,000 scientists reject warming chicken-littleism of IPCC meme circulating throughout conservative media outlets, even as climate disruption-focused media have worked at limiting the damage from the OISM
the science supporting a dominantly anthropogenic cause for climate disruption is overwhelming
, its only a matter of time before the OISM petition wilts in the heat.
30
AT Delays
1. Fiat solves the word should under the resolution implies desirability of an action, not implementation. We should debate as if high speed rail was passed and construction began immediately. 2. Eminent Domain only affects parts of the project keystone proves, the entire pipeline except one small section has been completed 3. Funding occurs immediately that stimulates the economy 4. The act of voting aff boosts the economy associated manufacturers will begin building prerequisite materials AASHTO 9
Companies Commit to Expanding U.S. Manufacturing Operations American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials December 11, 2009 http://www.aashtojournal.org/Pages/121109hsr.aspx More than 30 rail manufacturers and suppliers, both domestic and foreign, have committed to establish or expand their base of operations in the United States if they are selected by states to build high-speed rail lines, U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood announced last Friday at a conference on high-speed rail manufacturing in Washington. "Our goal is to develop a national high-speed rail network, create good jobs here in America, and help reinvigorate our manufacturing base," LaHood said. "We know these are tough economic times for many folks and we believe that U.S. rail manufacturers and suppliers will benefit greatly from this new program. We also look forward to establishing joint ventures with foreign firms who can provide expertise and establish or expand their operations here in the U.S." The conference drew more than 100 business leaders, union representatives, industry groups, and experts -- including Wisconsin Transportation Secretary Frank Busalacchi and AASHTO Executive Director John Horsley -- to discuss President Barack Obama's vision for the development of high-speed and intercity passenger rail in America. The Federal Railroad Administration has received $57 billion in applications for passenger rail projects from the states; $8 billion is available from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. FRA expects to announce grant awards later this winter. "We hope that money gets spent right here in the U.S. where it can create jobs and stimulate economic growth," LaHood wrote in a blog posting. "We want to see that $8 billion do its job-creation work in America. We want to create good jobs right here and reinvigorate U.S. manufacturing." Several participants expressed concern that the funding might dry up in the future and thus manufacturers don't have any long-term certainly right now regarding America's commitment to high-speed rail. William Millar, American Public Transportation Association president, said Congress needs to enact a long-term highspeed rail program with guaranteed funding levels to give manufacturers a predictable and steady long-term base of demand.
31
AT Econ Improving
Global economic collapse coming 80% probability IMF 12
World Economic outlook International Monetary Fund October 2012 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/pdf/text.pdf The WEOs standard fan chart suggests that uncertainty about the outlook has increased markedly (Figure 1.11, panel 1). 1 The WEO growth forecast is now 3.3 and 3.6 percent for 2012 and 2013, respectively, which is somewhat lower than in April 2012. The probability of global growth falling below 2 percent in 2013 which would be consistent with recession in advanced economies and a serious slowdown in emerging market and developing economieshas risen to about 17 percent, up from about 4 percent in April 2012 and 10 percent (for the one-year-ahead forecast) during the very uncertain setting of the September 2011 WEO. The IMF staffs Global Projection Model (GPM) uses an entirely different methodology to gauge risk but confirms that risks for recession in advanced economies (entailing a serious slowdown in emerging market and developing economies) are alarmingly high (Figure 1.12, panel 1). For 2013, the GPM estimates suggest that recession probabilities are about 15 percent in the United States, above 25 percent in Japan, and above 80 percent in the euro area.
32
AT Property Values
Plan skyrockets property values Fogarty et al. 8
Capturing the Value of Transit Center for Transit-Oriented Development - Nadine Fogarty; Strategic Economics; Nancy Eaton; Strategic Economics; Dena Belzer; Strategic Economics; Gloria Ohland; Reconnecting America; November 2008 http://www.reconnectingamerica.org/assets/Uploads/ctodvalcapture110508v2.pdf There is a growing awareness in the United States that public transit offers numerous economic, social, and environmental benefits, and the perceived value of these benefits is, to a certain extent, reflected in increased property values near transit stations. Americans are increasingly prioritizing the advantages provided by neighborhoods near transit, including economic savings to households, reduced carbon emissions, healthier lifestyles, fewer traffic accidents, and reduced suburban sprawl. At the same time, demographic and cultural changes are resulting in a growing interest in cities and urban lifestyles, which means that there is increased demand for the kind of neighborhoods that are most likely to be served by transit. These trends are only reinforced by recent spikes in oil and gas prices. Numerous studies have measured and documented a value premium for properties near transit, and many agencies and individuals are interested in tapping into this value.
33
AT Barnet: Econ /=/ War

Reject their Barnet evidence 1. Qualifications Barnet is the director of a company, Royal is the head of cooperative threat reduction at the department of defense our authors credentials are specific to the military 2. Barnet has no warrants he just makes a bunch of claims 3. Barnet is actually talking about free trade, its in the context of globalization
34
AT Inflation
Inflation spurs growthsolves risk aversion and stimulates the economy. Mirhaydari 10 Anthony Mirhaydari, investment columnist at MSN Money, former senior research analyst at Markman Capital Insightan investment advisory and money
management firm, 2010 (No Inflation Means No Recovery, MSN Money, September 8th, Available Online at http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/mirhaydari-no-inflationmeans-no-recovery.aspx?page=all, Accessed 09-08-2011)
The problem is extreme risk aversion . And it's being enabled by low inflation . The hordes are hoarding Instead of using cheap financing to invest and hire workers or even raise dividends or repurchase shares, corporations are hoarding cash . The ratio of liquid assets to total assets has jumped from 2.9% in 1980 to nearly 7%, a level not seen since 1960. As a result, the manufacturing capacity of the country is beginning to rust away
are now fewer loans outstanding than there were in September 2008. as managers forgo even basic maintenance expenditures to stash money in the bank, a subject explored at length in a recent column. The banks aren't doing much either. Although we've seen some positive signs, with lending standards finally beginning to ease, there
Instead of extending credit to businesses and consumers, the financial sector is dumping its cash into U.S. Treasurys and parking money in the Federal Reserve's vaults. The latter strategy earns a paltry 0.25%, yet the amount of money sitting idle at the Fed has jumped from just $810 million in the months before the recession to more than $1 trillion now. These are reservoirs of cash waiting to be tapped . Similarly, U.S. consumers aren't using cheap credit to buy discounted luxury homes or go on spending sprees. That's despite mortgage rates that have plunged to just 4.3% while home affordability has
returned to levels not seen since before the bubble. Credit card debts are being paid down. Indeed, the personal savings rate has jumped from a low of 0.8% in 2005 to 5.9% now. Obviously, part of the problem is that many consumers, banks and businesses are still paying for past sins. Debts are being repaid and balance sheets rebuilt. And millions of people are still without work. But the process is nearing its end. Banks are about 85% of the way through recognizing their housing-bubble losses, according to estimates by Credit Suisse and the International Monetary Fund. And Fed data show that household debt-service burdens have improved to levels not seen in 10 years. Overall, the picture is of an economy rebuilding its ability to create and consume credit. Drunk on deflation So what's the holdup? With fear and uncertainly still dominating the popular consciousness, many Americans are more concerned about simply being able to get their money back than with getting higher returns or chasing the hottest investing idea. On the great scale of fear and greed, we're fully tilted toward fear. And
inflation makes fearful decisions
-- like leaving cash at the Fed to earn 0.25% or investing in 10-year Treasurys yielding 2.6% --
low palatable . You can see
this in the way bonds and stocks have decoupled from their traditional relationship. Stocks are so undervalued relative to corporate bonds that they're trading at levels seen less than 0.01% of
inflation would slowly eat away at the returns from these conservative investments. It would force investors,
the time. (For the statistics buffs, equity yields are trading 3.36 standard deviations below the mean relative to Baa corporate yields.) Under more-normal circumstances,
managers and bankers to seek out riskier, higher-yield investments . That would help push cash back off the sidelines and back into the game resulting in more loans , more investment and higher asset prices . This, in turn, would result in increased spending and hiring , helping propel the economy forward . So the moral of the story is: We need inflation to help kick the recovery into overdrive . Moreover, inflation is the lesser evil spiral .
at this point,
with moderate inflation being less painful than a Japanese-style deflationary
The Fed will intervene to prevent hyperinflationno risk. Baker 10 Dean Baker, Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, 2010 (Why printing money makes sense, Guardian, October 12 , Available Online at
th
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/oct/11/useconomy-usemployment, Accessed 09-08-2011)
stimulus spending need not even create any long-term debt burden. The Fed When the economy returns to more normal levels of employment, the Fed would raise interest rates, as it always does, to prevent inflation from posing a
As is the case with the counterfeiter's illicit stash, the could simply buy and hold the bonds issued to finance the spending.
serious risk .
35
AT Econ War Empirics

Empirics prove econ decline leads to war A. Multiple Mead 9 Walter Russell Mead, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2009 (Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, February 4 , Available
th
Online at http://www.tnr.com/story_print.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8, Accessed 01-25-2009) None of which means that we can just sit back and enjoy the recession. History may suggest that financial crises actually help capitalist great powers maintain their leadsbut it has other, less
If financial crises have been a normal part of life during the 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under the Anglophone powers, so has war . The wars of the League of Augsburg and the Spanish Succession; the Seven Years War; the American Revolution; the Napoleonic Wars; the two World Wars; the cold war: The list of wars is almost as long as the list of financial crises . Bad economic
reassuring messages as well.
times can breed wars . Europe was a pretty peaceful place in 1928, but the Depression poisoned German public opinion and helped bring Adolf Hitler to power. If the current crisis turns into a depression, what rough beasts might start slouching toward Moscow, Karachi, Beijing, or New Delhi to be born? The United States may not, yet, decline, but, if we can't get the world economy back on track, we may still have to fight .
B. WWII Japan Green and Schrage 9 Michael, Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at CSIS and Associate Professor at Georgetown, Steven, CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business
and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative's Office, State Department and Ways & Means Committee, It's not just the economy, Asia Times, 3/26, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html
Japan was arguably not a revisionist power before 1932 and sought instead to converge with the global economy through open trade and adoption of the gold standard. The worldwide depression and protectionism of the 1930s devastated the newly exposed Japanese economy and contributed directly to militaristic and autarkic policies in Asia as the Japanese people reacted against what counted for globalization at the time.
C. 2009 Financial Crisis Green and Schrage 9 Michael, Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at CSIS and Associate Professor at Georgetown, Steven, CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business
and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative's Office, State Department and Ways & Means Committee, It's not just the economy, Asia Times, 3/26, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html
a sustained economic slowdown has the potential to open a dangerous path from economic nationalism to strategic revisionism in China too. Dangerous states It is noteworthy that North Korea, Myanmar and Iran have all intensified their defiance in the wake of the financial crisis, which has distracted the world's leading nations, limited their moral authority and sown potential discord. With Beijing worried about the potential impact of North Korean belligerence or instability on Chinese internal stability, and leaders in Japan and South Korea under siege in parliament because of the collapse of their stock markets, leaders in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang have grown increasingly boisterous about their country's claims to great power status as a nuclear weapons state. The junta in Myanmar has chosen this moment to arrest hundreds of political dissidents and thumb its nose at fellow members of the 10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Iran continues its nuclear program while exploiting differences between the US, UK and France (or the P-3 group) and China and Russia - differences that could become more pronounced if economic friction with Beijing or Russia crowds out cooperation or if Western European governments grow nervous about sanctions as a tool of policy.
If the Japanese example is any precedent,
36
37
AT Dedev - CO2
Economic decline doesnt save the environment Grover 12
Recessions Cannot Save Us From Climate Change Sami Grover; economics; October 8, 2012 http://www.treehugger.com/economics/recessions-cannot-save-us-climate-change.html There is little doubt that recessions can revive interest in frugality and promote greener lifestyle choices like biking to work. They can even raise the profile of alternative economic models like no growth or steady state economics. For these reasons, some among us have argued that
research published by Richard York of the University of Oregon demonstrates, while economic growth leads to increasing CO2 emissions, a contraction of GDP does not bring about CO2 cuts of anywhere near the same magnitude economic growth produces durable goods, such as cars and energy-intensive homes, and infrastructure, such as manufacturing facilities and transportation networks, that are not removed by economic decline and that continue to contribute to CO2 emissions even after growth is curtailed Instead, we must pursue a tandem effort of growing those things that truly enhance our lives and protect the ecosystems our economy relies on integrated transportation systems Recessions are not the environmental antidote to economic growth any more than hangovers are an antidote to binge drinking
recessions can actually help the environment. But we should be careful about taking this argument too far. As new in Nature imbalance: Why does economic decline not have an effect on CO2 emissions that is symmetrical with the effect of economic growth? There are various reasons that this may occur, but the asymmetry is probably due to the fact that costs model of economic development. But we also shouldn't rely on the long-term unsustainability of that model, or the inevitable boom-and-bust cycles of our economy, to keep CO2 emissions in check. green energy; efficiency; conservation; restoration; restorative agriculture; ; telecommuting; a sensible work-life balancewhile simultaneously questioning and curtailing the excesses of our current economic paradigmextractive industries; fossil fuels; disposable consumerism; etc etc. should heed as a warning sign, and as an inspiration to look for a more stable, rewarding and healthy path forward.
. York explains that there are pretty obvious, infrastructural reasons for this
. That's not to say we shouldn't continue to question a growth-at-all-
. They are simply a symptom that we
38
AT Ridership
High speed rail will have substantial ridership First, surveys prove Dutzik et al. 10 under solvency says that 82% of Americans prefer to use high speed rail Second, Amtrak proves Hurst 12 says that it carried 30.2 million passengers in 2011, the most since 1971, and thats the eighth time in nine years that Amtrak has set a ridership record. That proves a trend. Third, transit stats prove Meggison 12 says that public transit usage is at its highest level since 1957 Fourth, the reason high speed rail does not have many riders now is because the system is underinvested in and is in disarray if we dont invest in something, people wont use it. Fifth, Europe and Japan prove Peterman et al. 12
The Development of High Speed Rail in the United States: Issues and Recent Events Congressional Research Service - David Randall Peterman, Coordinator Analyst in Transportation Policy John Frittelli Specialist in Transportation Policy William J. Mallett Specialist in Transportation Policy; June 28, 2012 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42584.pdf In Europe and Japan, HSR has succeeded in capturing market share from commercial aviation. For example, rail has captured 85% of the air/rail market between Tokyo and Osaka (a distance of 320 miles, with a fastest scheduled rail travel time of 2 hours 25 minutes), and 74% of the air/rail market between Rome and Bologna (a distance of 222 miles, with a fastest schedule rail travel time of 2 hours 44 minutes). 91
39
AT Geography
1. No impact to this argument costs dont matter 2. Americas geography is becoming more like Europe and Japan Peterson 12
Eric C. Peterson, January 2012; Consultant for American Public Transportation Association, Peterson has held significant leadership roles on Capitol Hill, with national and regional transportation associations, and within the U.S. Department of Trans portation where he was the first Deputy Administrator of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration. He currently serves as a Research Associate for the Mineta Transportation Institute at San Jose State University. An Inventory of the Criticisms of High Speed Rail with Suggested Responses and Counterpoints, http://www.apta.com/resources/reportsandpublications/Documents/HSR-Defense.pdf
Another
the United States. Their
of A Due Diligence Report
criticism is that
s
: The CAHSRA in promotional literature frequently cites developments in Europe and Asia to justify building such a system in California. Absent from such material is recognition of critically
different circumstances and environments. Overall, the dissimilarities are great. Congressional Digest summarized
Europes
train-friendly circumstances well: Conditions in those countries are, in many ways, more favorable to passenger rail transportation than in
population densities are higher their land area is relatively smaller
(which makes train travel more efficient), their fuel prices, including taxes, are higher (which makes driving more expensive relative to other travel options),
and
(which makes travel time by train more competitive with air travel). While factors exist that allow high-speed rail systems to be well-used overseas, they nonetheless appear
insufficient to allow those very same HSR systems to attain profitability under generally accepted accounting practices. Moreover, while the conditions were favorable for the development of HSR in Europe and Japan, they are less clearly so in the United States. High-speed rail systems operate in a number of countries overseas. The state of California is proceeding with its HSR plan based on assumptions that are appropriate to European and Asian environments but generally hold little applicability in the state. Considerable market differences exist with conditions in California being far less favorable to the potential success of such a system. Dissimilarities include population densities in urba n areas, size of central business districts, extent of connecting transit systems, distances between urban areas, and thedegree to which a trainriding market existed prior to HSR service. Financially, it is not clear that the worlds HSR systems have typically covered their operating and capital costs without subsidiesa determination that would be appropriate in a due diligence process for commercial HSR proposals in any nation. Picking up on this theme, Diana Furchtgott-Roth (Cut, Dont Promote, High-Speed Rail, Washington Examiner, February 10, 2011) declared: Some Americans admire the railroads they see on trips to E urope and Japan and think America should have similar trains. But this ignores the exceptionally different demographic and economic environments . . . Similarly, Thomas Sowell, writing in the Albany Herald on February 22, 2011 said: High-speed rail may be feasible in parts of Europe or Japan, where the population density is much higher, but without enough people packed into a given space, there will never be enough riders to repay the cost of building and maintaining a high-speed rail system . . . Los Angeles and San Francisco and Tokyo and Osaka are comparable distances apart, but the populations of Tokyo and Osaka are
Were these perspectives true, then it would have been unlikely that SNCF, Japan Rail, Deutsche Bahn, Siemens and other organizations highly experienced with European and Asian high-speed rail initiatives would be so deeply engaged in efforts to build high-speed rail in the United States the American population is expected to grow by at least 100 million, fossil fuel will become more scarce, and environmental concerns will require the use of less-polluting, more energy efficient modes of transportation
millions larger than Los Angeles and San Francisco. That makes having bullet trains in Japan make more sense. will take decades. In that time-frame . High-speed rail fits that bill. As to the issue of profitability, while there are ways and demonstrated means by which high-speed rail can and does operate profitably, the question to ask is why is high-speed rail (or passenger rail service in general) singled out as the only mode of transportation with a mandate to operate profitably? This is nothing more than a red herring being offered so the opposition can claim that once again pro-passenger train advocates are trying to deprive Americans of their Henry Ford given right to drive automobiles. This of course is not the case. Pro-passenger train advocates have nothing against the automobile and are not proposing the death of the automobile the way the anti-train advocates are campaigning against passenger trains, especially high-speed trains. Today, demographically,
. The American initiative is a forward-looking undertaking that recognizes first of all that building out a network of highly integrated passenger transportation including high-speed rail
there is not much difference between conditions in Europe and Japan and those of the American East and West coasts Economically, conditions are quite similar as well. The only significant difference that exists between the U.S. and places abroad lies in the price of automobile fuel and the skewed perception of what travel actually costs. But even that will be changing in the coming years as fossil fuel becomes scarcer and the present day infrastructure continues to crumble because of chronic underinvestment.
(or for that matter the Chicago hub).
40
# # Theory # #
41
Conditionality Bad
Conditionality Bad Destroys stable advocacy - policymakers dont advocate multiple paradoxical positions and destroys real-world education and in-depth education. This moots 2AC time and strat, kills in-round decisionmaking not reciprocal- aff cant kick out of the plan Our interpretation: their positions should be dispo, this solves their offense. Neg flex shouldnt be carte blanche. There are already enough neg generics and this is the only way to prevent them from kicking out of our best offense
42
Dispositionality Bad
Kills Education Conditionality in disguise the neg knows it puts us at a strategic disadvantage to straight turn the cp/k so they can just kick them later. Not real world policy makers have to deal with the consequences of proposing an action. They cant just pretend they didnt read it if someone questions them about it. Ground Strategy and time skew the neg can just read a bunch of dipso counterplans and moot 2AC answers by kicking almost all of them in the block because the aff cant fairly turn all the different counterplans. Race to the bottom Forcing the aff win offense on the counterplan by straight turning vs. the negs net benefits leads to a race to the bottom. Perms key to aff ground checks back non-competitive and artificially competitive counterplans Straight turns dont check its suicide not to perm in most instances, it puts the neg into a strategic advantage. Reciprocity the aff is forced to stick with one advocacy, so should the neg. Err aff on theory debate has changed, statistically neg wins more rounds. When was the last time you wanted to be aff in an outround? Voter for fairness, ground and education
43
Multiple Perms Good

Just a test of competition the perm exists to see if the counterplan or kritik is competitive. If it still triggers the net benefit or the counterplan is mutually exclusive, then we lose argument. End of story. Breadth over depth multiple perms allows us to check the competitiveness of the k/cp under a multitude of circumstances which is key to understanding various solutions and is key to aff ground. Err neg on theory -- aff gets first and last speech and unlimited prep. Not a voter - Reject the argument not the team.
44
Perm Advocacy Good

Doesnt steal ground - The neg can still win that the aff is a bad idea by weighing the DAs against the perm. Reciprocal the neg gets to advocate the counterplan, we should be able to advocate the perm. They can have the status quo and the counterplan, we can have the perm or the plan. Err aff -- neg gets the block and can control the outcome of the debate by strategically picking certain arguments
45
PICs Bad
Bad for education Unfair: makes the aff debate themselves. Resolutional shift: concentrates the debate on insignificant aspects of the counterplan Encourages vague plan writing to avoid PICs. Ground explodes neg ground because there is an infinite amount of things that they can pic out of. Err aff on theory neg gets the block and can control the outcome of the debate by strategically picking certain arguments. Voter for fairness, ground, and education.
46
Consult Bad
Consult kills education Its infinitely regressive we cant predict all the different combinations of actors and policy changes to the plan which shift the debate from the resolution to irrelevant net benefits and insignificant policy differences. Amendments bad no one can predict what will be changed without specific lit which kills education and clash as the aff cannot research for answers because they simply dont exist. Kills Ground Time and strat skew they can steal all the offense from the 1NC by simply proposing that we listen to some random countrys opinion. Not textually competitive: The counterplan merely adds the words in consultation with, to the original plan text. Textual competition is the only non arbitrary default on counterplan debates. Not functionally competitive: The neg cant produce evidence that <<insert actor>> would have specific modifications to our plan. Instead, they rely on moving-target fiat to fill in solvency, links, and uniqueness which are all core tests of competitiveness. Thats an independent voter for fairness. Plan Plus: The counterplan is plan plus which justifies aff intrinsic and timeframe perms. This justifies an aff win because the negative can virtually concede case and just add an extra topical plank. Err aff on theory neg gets the block and can control the outcome of the debate by strategically picking certain arguments. Voting issue for ground, education, and fairness
47
Multiactor Fiat Bad

Ground Not reciprocal we are stuck with just the USFG, they should be limited to one other actor too. Education Infinitely regressive there are an infinite number of actors which the neg can use in combination. Unpredictable because there are so many different actors we cant predict the various combinations to research answers to which kills education and destroys clash Err aff on theory neg gets the block and can control the outcome of the debate by strategically picking certain arguments. Voter for fairness, education, and ground.
48
International Fiat Bad

International fiat is a voting issue Our interpretation is that the neg can only fiat U.S. action this is best 1. Rational decision-making no rational actor has the power to weigh the choice presented by the CP this makes it unpredictable and erases all debate's portable educational benefits 2. Limits there are 193 countries in the world plus multilateral organizations, any of which they could use to build similar infrastructure infinitely regressive, explodes the research burden, destroys competitive equity this kills predictability because they can literally choose any country 3. Their CP is uniquely abusive they skirt our solvency attacks by artificially manipulating the literature some of their ev says Chinese businesses should build U.S. infrastructure 4. Reciprocity the aff must defend U.S. federal action giving the neg infinite international actors is unfair reciprocity key to debate keeps the round balanced and its the only objective way to decide fairness 5. Kills topic specific education only tests the acting country which means we lose education about all other parts of our aff forces us to debate Chinese policy which theres no resolutional education or basis for 6. Ground they fiat an international actor does the counterplan which destroys predictable say no ground 7. Defer aff the neg has states and any number of other reliable generics and neg win percentages prove side biases theorys key to check this
49
Utopian Fiat Bad

Bad for education: Not real world -- By definition, we can never learn about practical policy solutions. While nice to think about, an imaginary world is ultimately useless. Education outweighs Learning about real world is a better internal link into education because its the only bona fide product of debate. Annihilates Ground -- We can literally never win a debate when the other team can just imagine away all of lifes problems. No literature aff/neg cant research answers to utopian positions because they simply DONT EXIST. Err aff on theory -- neg gets the block and can control the outcome of the debate by strategically picking certain arguments. Voter for education, ground, and fairness
50
Vagueness Bad
Vagueness kills ground Moving target: Vagueness can make the aff a moving target which kills predictability they can spike out of disads or change plan planks vital to the function of the counterplan. Time and strat skew all our arguments are predicated upon the plan text as per the 1AC. Later clarifying actual implementation is completely abusive. It slays education Sketchiness -- If the plan is unclear, we cant learn about the specific results of the plan because the details of actual implementation are murky at best and which kills education about real world policies. Generics Unclear specification means stuck with running generic arguments to just guarantee a link. Err neg on theory aff gets first and last speech plus unlimited prep. Voter for fairness and education.
51
Must have solvency advocate

1. Destroys education Unpredictable texts without a solvency advocate, the neg can fiat anything which kills real world education because they can just create an artificial counterplan which is bad for debate because they fiat competitiveness. Not real world the cp would never be presented before congress if no one agreed it was a good idea. 2. Ground Moving target without a stable plan text the neg can always shift advocacies by the 2NR which kills aff strategy from the 2AC. Steals aff answers we cant indict their solvency evidence because there is none specific to their counterplan which is key to impact calc and determining whether the counterplan solves. 3. Not reciprocal aff is forced to present a plan steeped in the literature base of the resolution. Not forcing the neg to present a counterplan with a solvency advocate is unfair to the aff. 4. Err aff on theory neg gets the block and can control the outcome of the debate by strategically picking certain arguments. 5. Voter for fairness, education, and ground.
52
Textual Competition Best

1. Education More real world congressman fight over implementation, not how the bill is specifically worded Best policy option tests a wider variety of solutions to the resolution and different ways to solve versus small, incremental textual differences. 2. Ground Textual comp encourages bad plan writing they will just make the text vague enough to limit out textual competition which destroys negative ground. Any CP would be legit you can just rephrase the plan text and it would compete the same way. 3. 4. Err neg on theory -- aff gets first and last speech and unlimited prep. Not a voter - Reject the argument not the team.
53
Topical Competition Bad
54
Noninherent Counterplans Bad
55
Nontopical CPs Bad
56
Topical CPs Bad
57
Neg Fiat Bad
58
# # Off case # #
59
T - Resolved
Resolved doesnt require certainty Websters 9 Merriam Webster 2009
(http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/resolved) # Main Entry: 1resolve # Pronunciation: \ri-zlv, -zolv also -zv or -zov\ # Function: verb # Inflected Form(s): also : to become reduced by dissolving or analysis 2 : to form a resolution : determine 3 :
resolved; resolving 1 : to become separated into component parts; consult, deliberate
Lit checks abuse Reasonability Brightline Dictionary defs best No loss of limits or fairness They under limit
60
T - Should
Should doesnt require certainty
Blacks Law 79 (Blacks Law Dictionary Fifth Edition, p. 1237) Should. The past tense of shall; ordinarily implying duty or obligation; although usually no more than an obligation of propriety or expediency, or a moral obligation, thereby distinguishing it from ought. It is not normally synonymous with may, and although often interchangeable with the word would, it does not ordinarily express certainty as will sometimes does.
Should isnt mandatory
Words & Phrases 6

Lit checks abuse Reasonability Brightline Dictionary defs best No loss of limits or fairness They under limit
(Permanent Edition 39, p. 369)
C.A.6 (Tenn.) 2001. Word should, in most contexts, is precatory,
not mandatory . U.S. v. Rogers, 14 Fed.Appx. 303. Statut 227.
61
T - Substantially
1. We meet: We have a 100% increase in HSR, there are no HSRs in the US yet
2. We meet- HSR costs __ money 3. We meet- we substantially increase jobs and the economy
4. Impossible to define substantially- too many possible definitions destroys fairness, arbitrary race to bottom
5. Substantial" means considerable in amount or value
Words and Phrases 2
(Volume 40A) p. 453
N.D.Ala. 1957. The word substantial means considerable in amount, value, or the like, large, as a substantial gain
6. HSR is a considerable amount
7. Neg underlimits- the way they define substantially creates no aff cases and causes an unfair race to the bottom 8. No ground loss: they still have links to all DAs. Ground is increases for neg by us using an original per camp Aff 9. Dictionary defs best: Words and phrases defines words like substantially for a living- they access the best definitions 10. Reasonability- as long as were reasonably topical dont vote us down 11. Lit checks abuse
12. We meet- HSR is a substantial upgrade from current commuting process
62
T - Increase
1. We Meet: We are a 100% increase, the us does not currently have HSR so any new HSR is an increase 2. We meet: We increase HSRs worldwide as well with the USs influence 3. We Meet: Europe has the techno now, we increase from that 4. Increase is the opposite of decrease Cambridge 8 Cambridge Dictionary, 8 (increase, 2008, http://dictionary.cambridge.org/define.asp?key=increase*1+0&dict=A)
increase
[Show phonetics] verb [I/T] to become or make (something) larger or greater
The opposite of increase is decrease.
As long as we dont decrease transportation infrastructure we are topical. 5. Neg underlimits- we dont have any affs that could be topical with this definition. Aff definition best for fairness 6. No loss of ground- Still get links and this is a pre camp topic 7. lit checks abuse 8. Reasonability- As long as were reasonably topical dont vote us down 9. 100% rule- unless theres a 100% chance were untopical you cant vote use downour C/I proves we are AT LEAST 1% topical 10. Dictionary defs are best- Words and phrases defines increase as a job and is trying to define the word
63
T - Increase = Preexistence
We Meet; HSR exists 1. Internationally; Europe and Asia 2. California 3. Stimulus and MAP-21 provided HSR funds 4. Amtrak Counter Interpretation; Increase means to become larger Encarta 6 Encarta Online Dictionary. 2006. ("Increase" http://encarta.msn.com/encnet/features/dictionary/DictionaryResults.aspx?refid=1861620741)
increase [ in kr ss ] transitive and intransitive verb (past and past participle increased, present participle increasing, 3rd person present singular increases)Definition: make or become larger or greater:
to
become, or make something become, larger in number, quantity, or degree

noun (plural increases)
And we meet the counter interpretation; HSR funding becomes larger Next, Standards First, Overlimits not enough affs that preexist under their interpretation destroys fairness and also kills creative thinking Second, Lit Checks HSR is a big stick aff and a majority of transportation literature is relevant to the plan Third, preexistence isnt defined and is arbitrary; this kills predictable aff ground Fourth, Dictionary definitions best A. Intent to Define ensures brightline B. Accessibility boosts participation in debate; makes debate better and more fair Fifth, Reasonability; if we are reasonably topical dont vote us down, that becomes unpredictable and kills aff ground because T is arbitrary
64
T - TI
1. We meet- Trains are one of the main forms of transportation 2. We meet- We would transport materials to where we would build the HSR 3. Infrastructure has sub catagorys- transportation is one and: Transportation must have the primary purpose of moving people or goods DoE 8 (United States Department of Energy Energy Intense Indicators in the U.S., Terminology and Definitions, 4-22,
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/ba/pba/intensityindicators/trend_definitions.html) Transportation sector
An end-use sector that consists of all vehicles whose primary purpose is transporting people and/or goods from one physical location to another. Included are automobiles; trucks; buses; motorcycles; trains, subways, and other rail vehicles; aircraft; and ships, barges, and other waterborne vehicles. Vehicles whose primary purpose is not transportation (e.g., construction cranes and bulldozers, farming vehicles, and warehouse tractors and forklifts) are classified in the sector of their primary use. (see the EIA glossary).
4. We meet this because HSRs primary purpose id to move people Standards: 5. Limits: Aff under limits the topic, no Affs are left 6. Ground: No loss of ground, HSR is a main topic, it should bepreped 7. Government defs best: The government defining a word about the gov is best 8. Lit checks abuse 9. Reasonability: aslong as were reasonability topical dont vote us down 10. Intent to define: DoE is trying to define the word, its not randomly used in an article
65
T - Investment
1. We Meet: We invest US money on hsr 2. WE meet: we invest in our future!!!!!!! 3. Investment is spending government resources to develop infrastructure Laos 10 (Laos Ministry of Planning and Investment, Manual For Public Investment Program (PIP) Program Management, August,
http://www.jica.go.jp/project/laos/0700667/materials/pdf/ProgramManual/ProgramMa nual_eng.pdf)
Public investment is defined as investment from government resources , domestic or foreign, with the objective of development in the sector and/or region. Domestic PIP projects, ODA in forms of grant, technical assistance and loan are main components. Provision of public infrastructure (ex. roads, bridges, irrigation systems, public hospitals and schools, rural electrification etc.) and technical promotion (ex. training) is generally done using public investment.
4. We spend government resourses to develop the hsr, therefore we are an investment
5. The Neg under limits the resolution- allows no possible affs or too few, make them prove abuse 6. No ground lost- there are tons of DAs CPs and Ks that link to HSR, its a pre camp aff 7. Reasonability- as long as were reasonably topical dont vote us down, 8. Lit checks abuse 9. Brightline- our def is best and creates brightline 10. We meet-
66
T - United States
1. We meet: We put HSR throughout the US, anywhere its needed 2. In means within the limits of Websters 6 Merriam Webster Online Dictionary, 06 (http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=in)
Main Entry: 1in Pronunciation: 'in, &n, &n Function: preposition Etymology: Middle English, from Old English; akin to Old High German in in, Latin in, Greek en 1 a --
used as a function word to indicate inclusion, location, or position within limits <in the lake> <wounded in the leg> <in the summer>
3. If you are in a city you are not through the city, youre in 1 spot 4. Neg under limits- nothing can be in every part of the USA destroys fairness 5. No ground loss- we still link tol everything they want it too. 6. Dictionary defs best- Dictionary defs are best because they try to define the wordits its job 7. lit checks abuse 8. as long as were reasonably topical dont vote us down 9. we have a clear brightline- they do not
67
AT: ASPEC
We meet- usfg is an actor C/I- only specify res You give No brightline Education agents bad- learn about Trans infrastructure Lit checks abuse As long as were reasonably topical dont vote us down Hurts ground Normal means
68
AT: SPECs
A. Counter-interpretation: normal means solves issues stemming from specification 1. Normal means solves B. We meet: The negative has had no loss of education or fairness C. The affirmative doesnt need to specify D. Standards 1. No in round abuse- theres no reason the negative cannot win without us specifying, they will always have ground to debate. E. SPECs are not a voter: No reason to reject the affirmative, the negative has plenty of arguments to debate. By not declaring an agency or branch of the government, that only gives them easier ways to link to the plan, not abusive at all. Default to reasonability. Make them prove the abuse.
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States CP - 3:30
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2AC States CP [1/7]

50 State fiat is bad First, No lit base kills ground Second, Hurts education not real world, 50 states have never worked together Third, That kills their solvency their internal link evidence assumes normal state action Counter interpretation both teams must defend one actor - it is the resolution Perms
First, Perm do CP state action requires fed oversight and funding
Second, Perm do both fed can support the states Third, Perm do plan then CP fed investment with state implementation solves Next is solvency deficits First, Compacts link to politics someone in Congress will attempt to block Koza 11
(et al, John R. Koza-- Ph.D. from University of Michigan, consulting professor at Stanford, Barry Fadem-- partner in law firm of Fadem & Associates, President of National Popular Vote, Mark Grueskin-- legal counsel, Michael S. Mandell-- general counsel to the Arizona State Senate, Robert Richie, and Joseph F. Zimmerman-- professor of political science at the State university of New York at Albany, "EVERY VOTE EQUAL: A State-Based Plan For Electing The President By National Popular Vote," January 2011, Ch. 5) CS
an objection by a member of Congress who represents an area affected by a compact will often be able to halt congressional consideration of consent. This fact is illustrated by the experience of the New Jersey Legislature and the New York Legislature, which each enacted an amendment to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey Compact (signed by the two Governors) allowing the Port Authority to initiate industrial development projects. In 1967, Representative Elizabeth Holtzman of New York placed a hold on the consent bill on the grounds that the Port Authority had failed to solve the ports transportation problems.
As a matter of practical politics, Holtzman argued that the Port Authority should construct a railroad freight tunnel under the Hudson River to obviate the need of trains to travel 125 miles to the north to a rail bridge over the river.
Second, Multi-State compact need to be approved by each State that process will take forever. CSG 3
(nonpartisan organization that brings state leaders together to share ideas, advocates the interests of the states, https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:XodKT3ZyjLgJ:ssl.csg.org/compactlaws/Introoverview.doc+&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=AD GEESiNcV1zWAJGONKIJRrz0EZd-4bv_JNCJ7NM1teMUO2WKPME-RUTlAulqZWzHTyKZGoIg3YqX-HlOJQ0Vj4XT9r08BpXP5mjLY4LPjupwmMhIx7pKZFHL05vXXZj52XPp4V6ItK&sig=AHIEtbQVB7kbD5DGcl6ri0CQT1C4RBf8Vg) CS
Compacts are not always complicated, but they take time, especially if their subject matter is controversial. A study of 65 interstate compacts conducted in the early 1960s indicated that the average amount of time required to launch a new compact was almost five years. But that study was admittedly skewed by the unusually long time required for the approval of several compacts that dealt with controversial natural resource
issues. In fact, the average time required to enact 19 compacts covering river management and water rights was almost nine years. Without these extremes, the prospects appear more manageable.
In recent years, there have been some remarkable success stories. For example, in December 1989, a committee of the Midwestern
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Legislative Conference approved draft language for the Midwestern Higher Education Compact and began circulating it to lawmakers in the twelve Midwestern states that were eligible to participate. Just 13 months later, the compact became effective.
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Next is the stimulus DA First, Only one state can deficit spend Attewell 9 Steven Attewell, Ph.D. student in the history of public policy at the University of California-Santa Barbara, 2009 (Fifty-State Keynesianism - Part Deux, The Economic
Populist, July 31st, Available Online at http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/fifty-state-keynesianism-part-deux, Accessed 06-27-2012) Lest this be seen as merely a California problem, a recent report by the National Governors Association notes that the
collective budget shortfalls of the fifty
states comes to a collective $200 billion shortfall. Given that the total Federal economic stimulus for this year only comes to about $400 billion, we are forced to recognize that our system of state government budgeting and finance is creating a massive economic undertow , weakening the impact of Keynesian stimulus by cutting spending and raising taxes all but one state in the Union (Vermont being the exception) have some form of a balanced budget or debt limitation requirement, which makes it impossible to deficit spend during recessions.
(although they've been doing a lot more of the former than the latter). Background: Why is it the case that America's state governments have become so strongly pro-cyclical? The basic reason is that
Second, that decimates the economyspending cuts and tax increases undercut demand. Quinnell 12 Kenneth Quinnell, political analyst and writer at Crooks & Liars, Adjunct Instructor in History at Tallahassee Community College, 2012 (New Report Shows State
Budget Cuts Have Hurt the Economy, Crooks & Liars, April 21st, Available Online at http://crooksandliars.com/kenneth-quinnell/new-report-shows-state-budget-cut, Accessed 06-27-2012) A new report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, "Out of Balance: Cuts in Services Have Been States Primary Response to Budget Gaps, Harming the Nations Economy," places a
state budget gaps of the last five years led to $290 billion in cuts to public services and $100 billion in tax and fee increases. Those actions lengthened the
spotlight on the right-wing assault on state budgets and the harmful effects of the growing trend of budget cuts. The
recession and delayed the recovery . Because spending reductions were dominant, hundreds of thousands of jobs were lost; undermining education, health care and other state priorities, which likely will cause future economic harm
to states. Federal aid mitigated the harmful effects of the spending cuts in the early years of the budget crunch, but its expiration last year had a catastrophic
640,000 jobs have been cut by the states since 2008, undercutting the economic recovery and helping sustain a high unemployment rate nationally. Because 2012 has been the worst year for cuts since the recession began, further job losses are almost guaranteed. The cuts have also led states to cancel contracts with vendors, reduce payments to businesses and nonprofits that provide services, and cut benefit payments to individuals all steps that remove
effect, making 2012 the worst year since the downturn began for cuts in funding for services. The study looked at budget data for the last five years and found that more than
demand from the economy . There are long-term effects as well: By diminishing the quality of elementary and high schools, making college less affordable, and
reducing residents access to health care,
the cuts threaten to make the U.S. economy less competitive in coming
decades . While there has been a recent rebound in the growth of revenue at the state level, if the current rate of growth continues, it will take seven years to get back to where things methods used to balance state budgets often a legal requirement were very focused on methods that harm the economy : * Spending cuts 44.8 percent * Federal relief funds 24.0 percent * Tax and fee increases 15.5 percent * Raiding of rainy day funds and other dedicated revenue streams 8.7 percent * Other miscellaneous methods 7.0 percent States have engaged in such unsustainable and negative tactics to balance their budgets that many more citizens are
were before the recession. Overall, the in vulnerable situations than before the recession.
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Third, these budget cuts will kill status quo state solar programs Roope 11 [30 August 2011, Jim Roope, CNN News, Budget cuts trigger early end to solar energy credits, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-0830/us/solar.energy.credits_1_rooftop-solar-panel-installations-state-rebate-solar-energy?_s=PM:US, AZhang]
Economic issues across the nation are contributing to the early demise of solar incentives such as tax breaks, grants and rebates. "We've been thinking about this for several years," said California homeowner Jim Adams. "The cost wasn't really coming down, so we went to the bank, asked for a loan and decided to get it done." So Adams had a 16-panel system installed on his roof in La Crescenta, California, about 15 miles north of Los Angeles. He received a 30% tax credit from the federal government and a 10% cash rebate from the state. It cost him $16,000 -- a savings of $10,000. This year, a federal 30%
If you've ever thought, "One day, I'm going to put in a solar energy system," today might be the day. cash rebate through the U.S. Treasury Department comes to an end. And the 30% federal tax credit program will conclude at the end of 2016. These incentives, created as part of
29 states offered incentives. Many of those state programs are also becoming victims of budget cuts. In Florida, Michael Hoffman, a taxation professor, hoped that between the federal tax credit and the state rebate, he'd be able to better afford a solar energy system. But a computer error in the state's application process actually cost him $20,000 more than he
the federal stimulus package a few years ago, were designed to create a vibrant solar energy market. Along with the federal program, had planned on paying. Hoffman blamed "poor record-keeping" on the state's end. "They took more applications than they had money for," he said. "If we'd known that our cost was going to be $33,000 instead of $13,000, that would have been a fairly hard one to sell to ourselves just for the ecological, environmental warm and fuzzies." Sales of rooftop
solar panel installations jumped 67% last year, compared with 2009, according to the Solar Energies Industry Association. Now, those sales are starting to drop because of state budget cuts and administrative
problems like Hoffman's experience in Florida.
Fourth, State incentives for solar power are key to check climate extinction Harding 11
Solar Power and Climate Change October 20 2011 Dan Harding; Dan Harding is a well-versed veteran of solar critique, commentary and reporting. He has published well over 1,000 articles on a wide variety of solar industry topics, ranging from cutting-edge technology and gadgetry to political satire and powerful editorials. CalFinder is proud to tout Dan as our resident solar expert. He holds a B.A. in English from Michigan State University, and enjoys reading, writing and home construction http://solar.calfinder.com/blog/solar-information/solar-power-andclimate-change/
Climate change is of the utmost importance today. Even while we stress about a struggling global economy and rising energy costs, the rapid onset of climate change and global warming threatens our very livelihood. Undoubtedly, at this point our only option is to move away from greenhouse-gas-emitting fossil fuels and into clean, renewable energy sources. Solar power and its partners in the renewable energy movement are our best bet toward curbing our part in climate change. Even with its rapid growth, solar power still contributes a small portion of our energy needs. In the United States, state renewable energy standards, coupled with incentives for renewable power generation, are setting the wheels in motion . The federal government, while historically focusing more on large-scale solar power, is finally getting behind the homeowner as
well. However we do it, a mass shift to renewable sources of power is tantamount to a healthy future. Solar energy, a predictable and abundant resource, will no doubt play a major role in
solar power could provide 100% of worldwide energy needs in just 20 years. He notes that solar power is doubling every two years and, according to Kurzweils Law of Accelerating Returns, it will grow by 1,000 percent in
that transition. According to futurologist Raymond Kurzweil, next two decades. That is some serious potential. Such lofty predictions are no reason to ignore other renewable technologies, but they do put solar at the forefront of climate change prevention and the impending energy overhaul. Much of this driving force behind solar is the constant flow of innovation. A good analogy would be to computer technology. We can already see how fast the computer market changes from year to year. You can expect such rapid advancement, says Kurzweil, from solar power as well. They both are, after all, information technologies. Furthermore, countries like India have already devised Climate Change Plans which put solar power at the top of their priorities list. The United States and the Bush
Solar energy is abundant the world around and can be easily harnessed in both urban and rural areas, without the need for large shifts in infrastructure. The fact is, there is no longer a need to sell solar power, or other renewable technologies for that matter. The need now is to implement solar power. The sun, for all intents and purposes, will always be there. Where the human race will be, even in 50 years, is the question that has yet to be answered.
administration have long been criticized for vague and lackluster planning the Presidents climate change plan merely states that greenhouse gas emissions will peak by 2025.
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Next is the grid DA First, Federalism prevents the formation of a smart grid Surowiecki 9
FIFTY WAYS TO KILL RECOVERY JAMES SUROWIECKI; won the Scripps-Howard Regional Puerto Rico Spelling Bee championship. 1984 graduate of Choate Rosemary Hall and a 1988 alumnus of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where he was a Morehead Scholar. Surowiecki pursued Ph.D. studies in American History on a Mellon Fellowship at Yale University before becoming a staff writer at the New Yorker; JULY 27, 2009 http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2009/07/27/090727ta_talk_surowiecki Even more important, federalism is getting in the way of the creation of a smart American power grid. This would involve turning the current hodgepodge of regional and state grids into a genuinely national grid, which would detect and respond to problems as they happen, giving users more information about and control over their electricity use, and so on. It could also dramatically reduce our dependence on oil. Wind power could eventually produce as much as twenty per cent of the energy that America consumes. The problem is that the places where most of that wind power can be generated tend to be a long way from the places where most of that power would be consumed. A new grid would enable us to get the power to where its needed. But since nobody likes power lines running through his property, building the grid would require overriding or placating the statesand the prospects of that arent great. The tension between state and national interests isnt new: it dates back to clashes in the early Republic over programs for internal improvements. Of course, the federal government is far bigger than it once was, and yet in the past two decades weve delegated more authority, not less, to the states. The logic of this was clear: people who are closer to a problem often know better how to deal with it. But matters of a truly interstate nature, like the power grid, cant be dealt with on a state-by-state basis. And fiscal policy is undermined if the federal government is doing one thing and the states are doing another.
Second, CP gives governors political capital Hart 12

Thomas Hart Jr. is director of government relations at Quarles & Brady, and vice president of government affairs for the US High Speed Rail Association. Politico May 23, 2012 lexis In California, where the US High Speed Rail Association is hosting a conference in San Francisco this week, a high-speed rail corridor is also viable because of major population centers from Sacramento to San Jose to San Francisco, then south through the Central Valley to Los Angeles and San Diego. Gov. Jerry Brown and Dan Richard, the new chairman of the California HighSpeed Rail Authority are planning to begin construction next year of an 800-mile high-speed rail system connecting the major cities. This entire project is now projected to be completed over 30 years at a cost of $68 billion. In a state with high unemployment, it is expected to create an estimated 150,000 jobs during construction, and 450,000 related jobs along the corridor. It is projected to remove more than 1 million automobiles and use only 30 percent of the energy needed for airplanes. A 2008 California ballot proposition authorized financing for initial construction, along with requirements for federal matching funds. California received some 2009 stimulus funding. It also has a $3.3 billion Department of Transportation grant for construction in the Central Valley, the backbone of the system, where trains are expected to run at top speeds of 220 mph. The CHSRA is now moving ahead with construction plans for the Central Valley, due to begin in 2013 and finish in 2017, at a cost of $6 billion. Brown has long been strongly committed to high-speed rail as a transportation alternative for the state's rapidly growing population. He is supported by Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), chairwoman of the Environment and Public Works Committee and co-chairwoman of the conference committee of the
political winds are beginning to shift, and some elected officials see that there can be political consequences
surface transportation bill, and House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), whose slogan "It's About Time" has become a rallying cry for progressive Californians. The
from strongly opposing high-speed rail. The governors on record as opposing projects are among the least popular - including Rick Scott in Florida, who rejected federal money. A new political group is now forming Republicans for Rail. There is also talk of starting a rail super PAC to generate money and grass-roots support for additional rail transit investments. If this political shift continues in the crucial 2012 elections, prospects for U.S. high-speed rail, particularly along the East and West Coasts, could finally brighten.
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Third, Political Capital is key to Voter ID Levitt 12
Steven Levitt; Winner of the 2004 John Bates Clark Medal, he is currently the William B. Ogden Distinguished Service Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago, director of the Becker Center on Chicago Price Theory at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He was co-editor of the Journal of Political Economy published by the University of Chicago Press until December 2007. He co-authored the best-selling book Freakonomics (2005) and its sequel Superfreakonomics (2009). He is a grand-nephew of Robert L. May, the lyricist of Rudolph the RedNosed Reindeer. In 2009, Levitt co-founded The Greatest Good, a business and philanthropy consulting company. He was chosen as one of Time magazine's "100 People Who Shape Our World" in 2006; ID overreach JUN 23, 2012 http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/06/23/2153450/steven-levitt-id-overreach.html#storylink=cpy
compromise will serve only to further embolden the current party in power by legitimizing the extreme right-wing ideology they deceitfully espouse. Their earlier successes with gerrymandering laid the groundwork for their flagrant acts of voter suppression. And those Democrats who trade their collusion on a voter ID bill in exchange for some sense of political capital will surely seal the deal .
No matter how soft the proposed bill appears to have become, the measures still remain needlessly draconian and blatantly discriminatory. Voting for any sort of
Fourth, Voter ID Kills Solvency DCSB 12

Wednesday, August 8, 2012 Voter ID Laws Marginalize People Without a Car by Fran Taylor http://dc.streetsblog.org/2012/08/08/voter-id-laws-marginalize-non-drivers/
voter ID laws, roll their eyes at the prejudices of red-state legislators, and turn the page at their own peril. This seemingly unrelated issue may have far-reaching consequences for transportation policy. New state laws mandating photo ID for voters threaten to disenfranchise nondrivers, and the skewed elections that would result could lead to political control by forces hostile to transit, cities, and even Safe Routes to Schools. A report issued in
Sustainable transportation advocates may read news headlines about new early July by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law [PDF] spells out how the strictest new laws in ten states* discriminate against nondrivers. The first, and most
a drivers license, which can function as the required photo ID. That leaves nondrivers as prime targets of voter ID laws. Source: Brennan Center Eleven percent of eligible voters lack the necessary ID, and, as the table above illustrates, nearly half a
obvious, way is that drivers have million people in the 10 affected states both lack access to a vehicle and live more than 10 miles from the nearest ID-issuing government office. To make matters worse, many of the same states now requiring photo ID for voting also fail to support transit. The report brings home the reality for the targeted voters: Voter ID laws are especially burdensome for citizens in highpoverty areas. Not only are these eligible voters among the least likely to have photo ID, they are also among the least likely to have access to government services, such as public transportation Citizens with limited vehicle access will be highly dependent on public transportation to obtain the ID necessary for voting. However, the states that passed the most
Seven of the ten restrictive voter ID states rank in the bottom half of the country when it comes to investment in public transportation. The state with the highest per capita
restrictive voter ID laws are among the nations worst investors in public transportation investment in transit in the nation is New York at $224.85. Of the 10 voter ID states, Pennsylvania spends the most ($94.77), then the amount drops off sharply to Wisconsin at $22.31, a tenth of New Yorks spending. Indiana is next at $8.63. The miserable amounts diminish from there until the list reaches Alabama, which provides no state funding for transit at all. Mississippi and Georgia spend less than a dollar. Getting a valid ID is made even harder because many issuing offices are open only a few days a week or less. In Sauk City, Wisconsin, the office is open only on the fifth Wednesday of the month, but eight months in 2012 have only four Wednesdays. Rural areas will be hit hardest by the new requirements, but even residents of cities will have a hard time obtaining the proper ID. Much as jobs have migrated to the suburbs, leaving nondrivers unable to search for work outside the range of transit, the government offices issuing voter ID are often located outside the downtowns where most of the affected citizens live. The report describes the situation in Knoxville, Tennessee: The nearest ID-issuing office is 11 miles east of the city center, which is home to the citys largest concentration of black voters. There are 61,600 eligible voters in downtown Knoxville who live more than five miles from that IDissuing office; 26 percent of them are black, and 27.5 percent live in poverty. The office is not served by the citys public bus system. This could pose a particular challenge for the 7,000 eligible
The implications are clear: If you dont drive, you become a second-class citizen. Sustainable transportation advocates in progressive cities may find it hard to believe that anyone in 2012 could lack a photo ID and all too easy to ignore the plight of the South Carolinian born at home, lacking a birth certificate, and still living out in the country. There are more people in that situation than you might think. Plenty of people dont drive, dont have photo ID, and dont have the money to jump through all the hoops put before them. In Mississippi, according to the Brennan Report, To secure
voters living downtown who do not have a car. government-issued photo ID, many voters will need a birth certificate. Yet the state requires a government-issued photo ID to obtain a certified copy of a birth certificate. Where do you
people who are trying to suppress voting are the very ones slashing funds for transit and bike/ped improvements. Voters being disenfranchised overlap substantially with transit users and walkers, not with purveyors of sprawl and legislators slashing transportation funding. The connections are clear.
begin? The
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Fifth, Voter ID kills democracy Advancement 11
DEMOCRACY UNDER ASSAULT: THE TRUTH ABOUT VOTER DISENFRANCHISEMENT LAWS Advancement Project; innovative civil rights law, policy, and communications action tank that advances universal opportunity and a just democracy for those left behind in America, policy analysis, strategic communications, technology, and research are coordinated with grassroots movements; http://www.advancementproject.org/sites/default/files/The%20truth%20about%20voter%20disenfranchisement%20laws.pdf
voter disenfranchisement laws undermine the very pillar of our democracy: the right of every citizen to have access to the ballot boxto have a voice in the shaping of their government. These laws are part of the largest legislative effort to turn back the clock on voting rights in our nation in over a century . Voting is a sacred right. It is the one time we are all equal: Black, Hispanic or white, rich or poor, young or old we all have an equal
These voice in the voting booth. Citizens who will be harmed the most are those who turned out in unprecedented numbers in 2008: Black and Latino voters as well as young and elderly voters. People with disabilities will also be among the hardest hit by new Photo ID requirements.
Voter ID laws are the new poll taxes , while voters can get
the ID for free they i.e., birth certificate, marriage license, etc. You are more likely to be struck by lightning than to find a prosecutable case of voter fraud. An extensive analysis of data from all fifty states by the U.S. Justice Department under President Bush found that incidents of voter fraud are exceedingly rare and would not be solved by state photo ID. It is a solution without a problem. States passed it without evidence of voter impersonation. It will cost some states as much
must pay for underlying documents
21 million eligible voters dont have the requisite photo ID and it disproportionately impacts the disabled, the elderly, the young, people of color and low income voters. We cannot ignore the partisan impact. The affected groups mostly vote Democratic and the states that have rolled back voting rights account for 63% of the electoral votes needed to win the presidency 171 votes. Of the 12
as 20 million dollars to institute Photo ID laws. Its expensive and antidemocratic. We cant afford it morally or financially. battleground states, 5 have passed laws to restrict the vote and more are introducing them.
Sixth, A strong US democracy is key to global peace Placek 12

The Democratic Peace Theory By Kevin Placek; Research Intern at the Japan Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Master of International Relations at University of Melbourne, B.A of International Exchange at / Sophia University February 18, 2012 http://www.e-ir.info/2012/02/18/the-democratic-peace-theory/
the recent increase in the number of democratic states provides a unique opportunity to reconstruct the norms and values underpinning the international system to more accurately reflect the peaceful interactions of democracies.[51] This would ideally mean strengthening the two other aspects of the Kantian system: international organisations and economic interdependence. Although the democratic peace represents the possibility of uncoerced peace without central authority,*52+ it is also the case that this liberal order has been best served when there has been a liberal state (i.e., the United States after World War II) that is both able and prepared to sustain the economic and political foundations of the wider liberal society beyond its own borders.[53] Strengthening a dense network of inter-governmental organisations (IGOs) that extend this responsibility to a larger number of democratic states and encourages greater
At the international level, cooperation among members through greater consultation and coordination, such as the WTO, IMF, World Bank, UN, and International Criminal Court, would arguably provide a stronger foundation for extending this perpetual peace outwards.[54] This also builds on studies that have shown the constraining effect of IGOs is greatest for politically relevant dyads contiguous pairs of states and pairs that include at least one major power which also happen to account for the majority of interstate disputes and conflict.[55] Focusing efforts to more proactively include the largest nondemocracies (China, Vietnam, Russia, Iran) into this liberal international order, and to strengthen those elements of constitutional liberalism (rule of law, institutional checks on power, individual freedoms) lacking in illiberal democracies (Belarus, Bangladesh, Rwanda, Romania, Malaysia etc.) would arguably help consolidate the democratic peace most effectively.[56] This is also the case for economic cooperation and interdependence. The observation that the likelihood of conflict between any two states with high levels of bilateral trade will be 33% lower than if those states only had an average level of economic interdependence suggests that democratic states will greatly benefit from upholding a liberal international economic system free of protectionism and mercantilist policies.[57] Because maintaining free and open trade relations rests on the assumption that market-based forces, rather than violence or coercion, will determine future economic transactions, the accompanying sense of mutual dependence will often act as a restraint on the use of military force.[58] Any accompanying increase in the quantity or quality of interstate communication is also likely to make it easier for democracies to understand the intentions and preferences of nondemocracies as well as their
The institutional and normative aspects of the democratic peace proposition, thus, provide a very clear, logical reason why the global spread of democracy will result in greater international peace: democratic political institutions make it difficult for governments to initiate war without the consent of the electorate, and the accompanying cultural norms mean democracies will favour a peaceful means of conflict resolution with one another. Of course, this would not
willingness to adhere to mutual agreements and commitments.[59] Conclusion necessarily reduce the overall incidence of war as the monadic proposition that democracies are less likely to use conflict regardless of regime type does not hold. But this would still produce a
democracies are less likely to initiate wars, escalate nonviolent disputes into full-scale war, or engage in long and protracted military conflicts. More importantly, an increase in the number of democracies would extend the liberal peace to a greater number of countries, and increase the probability of winning war arguably providing a strong normative and practical rationale for liberal states to conduct a more Wilsonian foreign policy. Recognising the inherent difficulties implicit with the democratisation process, however, greater effort should be made to encourage the consolidation
positive qualitative change:
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of political institutions prior to mass political/electoral participation in transitional states. Strengthening international organisations that embody liberal norms and values,
and encouraging economic interdependence with nondemocracies would also help mediate the strategic uncertainty and misperceptions that exist where the Kantian peace meets the Hobbesian state of anarchy.
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Conditionality Bad destroys stable advocacy - policymakers dont advocate multiple paradoxical positions. This destroys real-world education and in-depth education. This moots 2AC time and strat, kills in-round decisionmaking not reciprocal- aff cant kick out of the plan Abusive contradictions- they say one thing but contradict it elsewhere Our interpretation: their positions should be dispo Solves their offense. Neg flex shouldnt be a blank check. There are already enough neg generics like politics and process CPs and this is the only way to prevent them from kicking out of our best offense
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1AR States CP [1/3]

Extend that 50 state fiat is bad because it Doesnt have a lit base since no author advocates having all 50 states doing the exact same thing. This kills our ground and makes the debate arbitrary and subjective. It also kills education because its unrealistic. We roleplay as policymakers so we should learn more about policymaking. It also takes out their solvency claims because their authors assume laboratories not all state action. Extend that our counter interpretation is best because it has the most resolutional basis. This makes it more fair for the aff because we cant predict all potential agent CPs. Now onto the perms First extend perm do the counterplan state action requires the federal government cross apply our Koza 11 evidence that says that multi-state action requires congressional consent. Action also required fed oversight between state boundaries and borders. It also necessitates the fed standardizing the system. Next, extend perm do both the federal government can support state action Next, extend perm do the plan then the counterplan if the federal government funds the state governments implementation it solves all the offense. Avoids the solvency deficits because the federal government will have consented and it doesnt require the states to agree on specific implementation issues. Avoids the stimulus DA because the money is provided from the federal government. Avoids the voter ID DA because the governors are accepting money they arent associated with the political decision to build HSR.
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1AR States CP [2/3]

Now onto the solvency deficits Extend Koza 11 agreements between the fifty states require congressional consent to be enacted. If the plan is unpopular then that kills CP solvency because congress will block implementation. Extend CSG 3 if they fiat past that then that means the CP will take forever to pass controversial compacts take decades to negotiate. Onto the Stimulus DA Extend Attewell 9 49 states have balanced budget amendments Extend Quinnell 12 which kills the economy because of spending cuts and tax increases this means at best the CP has a net zero effect on the economy. Extend Roope 11 the states will choose to kill solar incentive programs to fund the CP Extend Harding 11 these incentives are key to preventing extinction from global warming this kills solvency for the warming and oil advantages because we will have to continue reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, this makes HSR less clean because the power grid will have less solar energy supplying it. The stimulus DA also takes out ridership solvency because fiscal concerns will necessitate an increase in fares this means less people will use HSR.
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Now onto the voter ID DA Extend Avlon 11 republican governors political capital has been drained because of decisions to cancel HSR . Extend Hart 12 passage of the CP makes these governors significantly more popular because people love HSR. Extend Levitt 12 governors will use this political capital to get democrats to make concessions on votrer ID laws Extend DCSB 12 which kills CP solvency because voter ID disenfranchises nondrivers. This is empirically proven because states that have voter ID rank the worst in transportation spending. Extend Advancement 11 this also kills our democracy because voting is the centerpiece of our liberty and freedom. These laws specifically make 21 million eligible citizens unable to vote. Especially since these laws discriminate against colored and low income people. Extend Placek 12 The degradation of our democracy will undermine global peace nations model us for their democracies; bad democracies make war easier to initiate, escalate, and protract because the electorate has less of a say. Now onto conditionality Extend that making their advocacy conditional makes it unstable which destroys fairness and education because they moot out of 2AC time allocation and decisionmaking. Entire aff strategy is predicated off the 2AC and we dont know what were fighting until the 2NR. This boils the debate down to a dice roll. Extend that its not reciprocal this means we only run a risk of unfairness. Extend that the contradictions they utilize kills fairness and justify conditionality Extend our interpretation that dispositionality solves their offense because it gives the 2AC more power over the direction of the debate.
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User Fees CP
83
2AC
Theory Perm do both 1NC evidence says that all the CP does is have the USFG borrow capital from the private sector. This basically just changes the funding mechanism. Do the plan while borrowing capital from the private sector, the perm is the definition of a privatepublic partnership. Perm do the CP The CP is the plan, since the private sector only funds and maintains the plan; all it does is specify the funding mechanism Perm do the plan then the CP Since all the CP does is give the private sector an additional source of revenue, it wont solve the economy, Our 1AC Brumley evidence says that the private sector already is holding on to a LOT of capital and isnt going to spend it in the squo Dutzik et al 10 in solvency says that stable federal funding is a prerequisite to getting private investors on board with the plan. Perm solves best empirics prove Schank 12
Would Funds for High-Speed Rail Be Better Spent on Improving Existing Intercity Rail Service? Joshua L. Schank; president and chief executive officer of the Eno Center for Transportation; September 24, 2012 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444709004577649421549941652.html
High-speed rail will open up our rail system to competition and innovation
. There is no inherent reason why Amtrak, a quasigovernmental agency,
history has shown us that there will be no private-sector interest in operating passenger-rail service in the U.S.
should have a monopoly on operating intercity passenger rail in this country. There could be benefits to inviting private operators and competition into our rail system, as evidenced by the deregulation of the trucking, rail and airline industries. But
until a substantial public investment is made to improve the infrastructure to the point where it can be profitable. Much of Japan's high-speed rail network is now privately operated, but this happened only after the government built the infrastructure to run bullet trains
.
None of their privatization claims are relevant, their CP only provides revenue to the private sector, doesnt cede control of HSR to them. We NEED deficits to stimulate the economy; thats Krugman 10 Plan includes the NB, development of HSR would have the USFG fund the private sector to build it.
84
Privatization Fails and Kills Solvency Buchheit 12

Five Ways Privatization Degrades America Paul Buchheit; Prof. at Depaul University; Monday, August 13, 2012 http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/08/13-1
A grand delusion has been planted in the minds of Americans, that privately run systems are more efficient and less costly than those in the public sector. Most of the evidence points the other way . Private initiatives produce mediocre or substandard results while experiencing higher prices, limited services, and lower wages for all
generally the usual travails of unregulated capitalism -of privatization, as the collapse of the financial markets has deprived state and local governments of necessary public funding, leading to an even greater call for private development. As aptly expressed by a finance company chairman in 2008, "Desperate government is our best customer." The following are a few consequences of this pro-privatization desperation: 1. We spend lifetimes developing community assets, then give them away to a corporation for lifetimes to come. with the sweat and planning of farsighted citizens.
but a few 'entrepreneurs.' With perverse irony, the corruption and incompetence of private industry has actually furthered the cause
The infrastructure in our cities has been built up over many years Yet the dropoff in tax revenues has prompted careless decisions to balance budgets with big giveaways of public assets the Skyway tollroad was leased to a private company for 99 years, and, in a deal growing in infamy, the management of parking meters was sold for 75 years. The proceeds have largely been spent The parking meter selloff led to a massive rate increase, while hurting small businesses whose potential customers are unwilling to pay the parking fees. the business partnership will make a profit of 80 cents per dollar of revenue, a profit margin larger than that of any of the top 100 companies in the nation Indiana has also succumbed selling control of a toll road for 75 years. Tolls have doubled over the first five years Atlanta's 20-year contract with United Water Resources Inc. was canceled because of tainted water and poor service Numerous examples of failed or ineffective privatization schemes show us that hasty, unregulated initiatives simply don't work charter students are not faring as well as their traditional public school counterparts charter middle schools that hold lotteries are neither more nor less successful than traditional public schools in improving student achievement, behavior, and school progress private health care has failed us. We have by far the most expensive system in the developed world private prisons perform poorly in numerous ways: prevention of intra-prison violence, jail conditions, rehabilitation efforts The promises of 20-percent savings in operational costs have simply not materialized private companies charge up to 80 percent more for water and 100 percent more for sewer services California's experiments with roadway privatization resulted in cost overruns, public outrage, and a bankruptcy; equally disastrous was the state's foray into electric power privatization the federal government paid billions more on private contractors than the amounts needed to pay public employees for the same services with monitoring and competition and regulation, privatization can be effective. But too often vital information is kept from the public Chicago's parking meter debacle might have been avoided if the city had followed common-sense principles rather than rushing a no-bid contract any attempt at privatization must ensure a means of public accountability. Too often this need is ignored For over 20 years the Department of Corrections avoided cost and quality reviews for its private prisons abuses by the South Florida Preparatory Christian Academy went on for years without regulation or oversight, with hundreds of learning-disabled schoolchildren crammed into strip mall spaces where 20something 'teachers' showed movies to pass the time. In Philadelphia, an announcement of a $38 million charter school plan in May turned into a $139 million plan by July
that should belong to our children and grandchildren. In Chicago, to a Morgan Stanley group . Meanwhile, it has been estimated that . to the shiny lure of money up front, of the contract. Indianapolis sold off its parking meters for 50 years, for the bargain up-front price of $32 million. . 2. Insanity is repeating the same mistake over and over and expecting different results. . A Stanford University study "reveals in unmistakable terms that, in the aggregate, ." A Department of Education study found that "On average, ." Our system . The cost of common surgeries is anywhere from three to ten times higher in the U.S. than in Great Britain, Canada, France, or Germany. Studies show that . The U.S. Department of Justice offered this appraisal: "There is no evidence showing that private prisons will have a dramatic impact on how prisons operate. ." A 2009 analysis of water and sewer utilities by Food and Water Watch found that . Various privatization abuses or failures occurred in California, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. . Across industries and occupations, according to the Project on Government Oversight, . 3. Facts about privatization are hidden from the public. Experience shows that under certain conditions, sufficient . The Illinois Public Interest Research Group noted that through the city council. Studies by both the Congressional Research Service and the Pepperdine Law Review came to the same conclusion: . The Arizona prison system is a prime example. , then got around the problem by proposing a bill to eliminate the requirement for cost and quality reviews. In Florida, . In Michigan, the low-income community of Muskegon Heights became the first American city to surrender its entire school district to a charter school company. Details of the contract with Mosaica were not available to the public for some time after the deal was made. But data from the Michigan Department of Education revealed that Mosaica performed better than only 13% of the schools in the state of Michigan. Also in Michigan, an investigation of administrative salaries elicited this response from charter contractor National Heritage Academies: "As a private company, NHA does not provide information on salaries for its employees." Education writer Danny Weil summarizes the charter school secrecy: "The fact is that most discussions of charters and vouchers are not done through legally mandated public hearings under law, but in back rooms or over expensive dinners, where business elites and Wall Street interests
Beyond prisons and schools, how many Americans know about the proposal for the privatization of Amtrak, which would cripple Main Street
are the shot-callers in a secret parliament of moneyed interests." , according to West Virginia Representative Nick Rahall, "
by auctioning off Amtrak's assets to Wall Street."
85

in the west? Or the sale of the
Or the proposal to sell off the nation's air traffic control system? Or the sale of federal land
vouchers in 1997, "we have come to the conclusion that they are the only way to dismantle the current socialist regime." But the facts show, first of all, that . According to the Census Bureau,
nation's gold reserves, an idea that an Obama administration official referred to as "one level of crazy away from selling Mount Rushmore"? 4. Privatizers have suggested that teachers and union members are communists. Part of the grand delusion inflicted on American citizens is that public employees and union workers are greedy good-for-nothings, enjoying benefits that average private sector workers are denied. The implication, of course, is that low-wage jobs with meager benefits should be the standard for all wage-earners. The myth is propagated through right-wing organizations with roots in the John Birch Society, one of whose founding members was Fred Koch, also the founder of Koch Industries. To them, public schools are socialist or communist. Explained Heartland Institute President Joseph Bast with regard to private school
government and union workers are not overpaid state and local government employees make up 14.5% of the U.S. workforce and receive 14.3% of the total compensation. Union members make up about 12% of the workforce, but their total pay amounts to just 9.5% of adjusted gross income wage stability is fostered by the lower turnover rate and higher incidence of union membership in government. The supportive environment helps to sustain living wages for millions of families. The private sector, on the other hand, is characterized by severe wage inequality. Whereas the average private sector salary is similar to that of a state or local government worker, the MEDIAN U.S. worker salary is almost $14,000 less, at $26,363. While corporate executives make multi-million dollar salaries, millions of private company workers toil at below-average pay Privatization often creates an "incentive to fail." Privatized services are structured for profit rather than for the general good. A by-product of the profit motive is that some people will lose out along the way, and parts of the societal structure will fail in order to benefit investors
as reported to the IRS. The facts also strongly suggest that that right-wingers call 'socialism' and financial workers (about one-half of 1% of the workforce) as food servers, clerks, medical workers, and domestic help . 5. a decreasing adherence to the law to ensure its own success. Corrections Corporation of America has offered to run the prison system in any state willing to guarantee that jails stay 90% full. "This is where it gets creepy," says Business Insider's Joe Weisenthal, "because as an investor you're pulling for scenarios where more people are put in jail."
. This is evident in the privatized prison system, which relies on
The incentive to fail was also apparent in road privatization deals in California and Virginia, where 'non-compete' clauses prevented local municipalities from repairing any roads that might compete with a privatized tollroad. In Virginia, the tollway manager even demanded reimbursement from the state for excessive carpooling, which would cut into its profits. The Chicago parking meter deal requires compensation if the city wishes to close a street for a parade. The Indiana tollroad deal demanded reimbursement when the state waived tolls for safety reasons during a flood
The list goes on. outlandish requirement is causing a well-run public service to default on its loans for the first time. Also set up to fail are students enrolled in for-profit colleges, which get up to 90 percent of their revenue from U.S. taxpayers. Less incentive remains for the schools after tuition is received, as evidenced by the fact that more than half of the students enrolled in these colleges in 2008-9 left without a degree or diploma. And then we have our littler students, set up to fail by private school advocates in Wisconsin who argue that a requirement for playgrounds in new elementary schools "significantly limit[s] parent's educational choice in Milwaukee." In too many cases,
. Plans to privatize the Post Office have created a massive incentive to fail through the Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act, which requires the USPS to pre-pay the health care benefits of all employees for the next 75 years, even those who aren't born yet. This
privatization means success for a few and failure for the
community being served.
Unless success can be defined as a corporate logo carved into the side of Mount Rushmore.
86
No solvency; no company says yes Hurst 12

Democrats Hope Amtrak Ridership Record Stalls Rail Privatization Efforts Nathan Hurst, CQ Staff http://www.goiam.org/images/articles/tcunion/legislative-outlook/amtrak%20ridership%20priv.pdf
Success along the Northeast Corridor led Mica earlier this year to propose separating the 363 mile Northeast Corridor from Amtrak and requiring the Transportation Department to solicit bids from private operators to maintain, upgrade and operate the line. Amtrak officials estimate a $117 billion price tag to overhaul the heavily traveled Northeast Corridor to increase
train speeds. They envision operating trains along the East Coast that could eventually travel at 200 miles an hour, slicing travel time between Washingtons Union Station and New Yorks Pennsylvania Station to about 90 minutes. Supporters of Micas proposal estimate that as much as $60 billion could be taken in through a sale of Amtraks profitable Northeast assets,
though no firm or group has yet expressed interest.

Conditionality Bad
destroys stable advocacy - policymakers dont advocate multiple paradoxical positions. This destroys real-world education and in-depth education. This moots 2AC time
and strat, kills in-round decisionmaking
not reciprocal- aff cant kick out of the plan Abusive contradictions- they say one thing but contradict it elsewhere Our interpretation: their positions should be dispo Solves their offense. Neg flex shouldnt be a blank check. There are already enough neg generics like politics and process CPs and this is the only way to prevent them from
kicking out of our best offense
87
XO CP
88
2AC
Agent counterplans are illegitimate and a voting issue 1. Strategy skew kills 1AC offense by focusing the debate solely on our actor 2. Trivially regressive impossible to predict 3. Destroys topic-specific education shifts away from the res. They can still say our actor is bad, just cant propose an alternative
Perm do the CP the executive branch is at the federal level Perm do both have congress fund an executive order Solvency deficits XO doesnt solve HSR-Only Congress guarantees investor confidence and long term solvency Ashiabor and Wei, 12 [Senanu, Ph.D. and MTI researcher, active member of the Transportation Research Board, and Wenbin, professor in the Department of
Aviation and Technology at San Jose State University College of Engineering, Ph.D in transportation engineering from University of California Berkeley, Advancing High-Speed Rail Policy in the United States, Mineta Transportation Institute, June, http://transweb.sjsu.edu/PDFs/research/2905-US-hsr-high-speed-rail-policy.pdf] For projects spanning multiple states, member states may have to negotiate what level of financial responsibility they will bear, and this will require detailed negotiations and financial setups that are not addressed in this report. States that do not benefit directly from HSR will still contribute to the HSR systems through taxpayer-funded loans and grants, and this is equitable, since some of these citizens will, at one point or another, use the HSR systems. Moreover, as with urban mass transit, citizens of one state may well benefit from improved economic efficiency in any other state through increased business interchange. Also given that intercity travelers are not currently experiencing severe congestion, the greatest beneficiaries of the HSR systems are those who will use them ten to twenty-five years down the line. So having a setup where those beneficiaries pay off the bonds (cost of the system) in the future is more equitable than
The federal funding going forward should be initiated and set by Congress rather than the Executive branch. The funds should come from a dedicated, long-term source, such as an extended fuel tax. This is needed so to instill confidence in private investors and other stakeholders, such as train set manufacturers, that the resources they allocate to HSR development are a wise investment. Without a dedicated funding source and support from the government, these third parties will consider HSR too risky and their incentive to allocate capital to such projects will be minimal.
having current taxpayers fully fund the system.
89
1AC Dutzik in solvency says that private confidence is key to jumpstarting industries necessary for HSR this means CP doesnt solve, or at best, doesnt solve econ
90
Congress and the court will overrule executive orders. William G. Howell, Associate Prof Gov Dep @ Harvard 2005 (Unilateral Powers: A Brief
Overview; Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 35, Issue: 3, Pg 417)
presidents cannot institute every aspect of their policy agenda by decree. The checks and balances that define our system of governance are alive, though not always well, when presidents contemplate unilateral action. Should the president proceed without statutory or constitutional authority, the courts stand to overturn his actions, just as Congress can amend them, cut funding for their operations, or eliminate them outright. (4) Even in those moments when presidential power reaches its zenith--namely, during times of national crisis-judicial and congressional prerogatives may be asserted (Howell and Pevehouse 2005, forthcoming; Kriner, forthcoming; Lindsay 1995, 2003;
Plainly, and see Fisher's contribution to this volume). In 2004, as the nation braced itself for another domestic terrorist attack and images of car bombings and suicide missions filled the evening news, the courts extended new protections to citizens deemed enemy combatants by the president, (5) as well as noncitizens held in protective custody abroad. (6) And while Congress, as of this writing, continues to authorize as much funding for the Iraq occupation as Bush requests, members have imposed increasing numbers of restrictions on how the money is to be spent.
Either the CP cant solve or it causes Congress to act which magnifies the link to politics
Terry M. (Professor of Political Science at Stanford University) William G. Unilateral Action and Presidential Power: A Theory, Presidential Studies Quarterly
Moe
and
Howell (Graduate Student of Political Science at Stanford University) December 1999
Congress has the constitutional power to appropriate money--which means that, to the extent that unilateral actions by presidents require congressional funding, presidents are dependent on getting Congress to pass new legislation that at least implicitly (via appropriations) supports what they are doing. When appropriations are involved, in other words, presidents cannot succeed by simply preventing Congress from acting. They can only succeed if they can get Congress to act-There is one crucial consideration, however, that we have yet to discuss and that gives Congress a trump card of far-reaching consequence. This is the fact that which, of course, is much more difficult and gives legislators far greater opportunities to shape or block what presidents want to do.
The CP links back into politics backlash Cohen 11 *Tom, CNN Wire news editor, Former Bureau Chief at The Associated Press, Obama uses executive orders as a political tool November 01, 2011
http://articles.cnn.com/2011-11-01/politics/politics_obama-executive-orders_1_executive-orders-press-secretary-jay-carney-inaction?_s=PM:POLITICS]
Republicans reject the premise of the White House position, arguing that Obama chooses to blame Congress for inaction instead of working with legislators from both parties on bills that can pass. House Speaker John Boehner, speaking on the Laura Ingraham show last week,described as laughable the prospect that Obama would use executive orders to bypass Congress on substantive issues.At the same time, though, the Ohio Republican said he would keep close watch to
make sure nothing unconstitutional happens.
91
Excessive presidential power makes nuclear war inevitable Forrester 89 [Ray, Professor, @ Hastings College of the Law, University of California, Former dean of the law schools at Vanderbilt, Tulane, and Cornell, Presidential Wars in the
Nuclear Age: An Unresolved Problem George Washington Law Review, August, 57 Geo. Wash. L. Rev. 1636, Lexis+
concentration of power in any one person, or one group, is dangerous to mankind. The Constitution, therefore, contains a strong system of checks and balances, starting with the separation of powers between the President, Congress, and the Supreme Court. The message is that no one of them is safe with unchecked power. Yet, in what is probably the most dangerous governmental power ever possessed, we find the potential for world destruction lodged in the discretion of one person. As a result of public indignation aroused by the Vietnam disaster, in which tens of thousands lost their lives in military actions initiated by a succession of Presidents, Congress in 1973 adopted, despite presidential veto, the War Powers Resolution. Congress finally asserted its checking
A basic theory--if not the basic theory of our Constitution--is that and balancing duties in relation to the making of presidential wars. Congress declared in section 2(a) that its purpose was to fulfill the intent of the framers of the Constitution of the United States and insure that the collective judgment of both the Congress and the President will apply to the introduction of United States Armed Forces into hostilities, or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances, and to the continued use of such forces in hostilities or in such situations. The law also stated in section 3 that [t]he President in every possible instance shall consult with Congress before introducing United States Armed Forces into hostilities or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities
Congress undertook to check the President, at least by prior consultation, in any executive action that might lead to hostilities and war. [*1638] President Nixon, who
is clearly indicated. . . . Other limitations not essential to this discussion are also provided. The intent of the law is clear. initially vetoed the resolution, claimed that it was an unconstitutional restriction on his powers as Executive and Commander in Chief of the military. His successors have taken a similar view.
but obedience to the law has been uncertain and a subject of continuing controversy between Congress and the President. Ordinarily, the issue of the
Even so, some of them have at times complied with the law by prior consultation with representatives of Congress, constitutionality of a law would be decided by the Supreme Court. But, despite a series of cases in which such a decision has been sought, the Supreme Court has refused to settle the controversy. The usual ground for such a refusal is that a "political question" is involved. The rule is well established that the federal judiciary will decide only "justiciable" controversies. "Political questions" are not "justiciable." However, the standards established by the Supreme Court in 1962 in Baker v. Carr, 369 U.S. 186, to determine the distinction between "justiciable controversies" and "political questions" are far from clear. One writer observed that the term "political question" [a]pplies to all those matters of which the court, at a given time, will be of the opinion that it is impolitic or inexpedient to take jurisdiction. Sometimes this idea of inexpediency will result from the fear of the vastness of the consequences that a decision on the merits might entail. Finkelstein, Judicial Self-Limitation, 37 HARV. L. REV. 338, 344 (1924)(footnote omitted). It is difficult to defend the Court's refusal to assume the responsibility of decisionmaking on this most critical issue. The Court has been fearless in deciding other issues of "vast consequences" in many historic disputes, some involving executive war power. It is to be hoped that the
the spectre of single-minded power persists, fraught with all of the frailties of human nature that each human possesses, including the President. World history is filled with tragic examples. Even if the Court assumed its responsibility to tell us whether the Constitution gives Congress the necessary power to check the President, the War Powers
Justices will finally do their duty here. But in the meantime Resolution itself is unclear. Does the Resolution require the President to consult with Congress before launching a nuclear attack? It has been asserted that "introducing United States Armed Forces into hostilities" refers only to military personnel and does not include the launching of nuclear missiles alone. In support of this interpretation, it has been argued that Congress was concerned about the human losses in Vietnam and in other presidential wars, rather than about the weaponry. Congress, of course, can amend the Resolution to state explicitly that "the introduction of Armed Forces" includes missiles as well as personnel. However, the President could continue to act without prior consultation by renewing the claim first made by President [*1639] Nixon that the Resolution is an unconstitutional invasion of the executive power. Therefore, the real solution, in the absence of a Supreme Court decision, would appear to be a constitutional amendment. All must obey a clear rule in the Constitution. The adoption of an amendment is very difficult. Wisely, Article V requires that an amendment may be proposed only by the vote of two-thirds of both houses of Congress or by the application of the legislatures of two-thirds of the states, and the proposal must be ratified by the legislatures or conventions of three-fourths of the states. Despite the difficulty, the Constitution has been amended twenty-six times. Amendment can be done when a problem is so important that it arouses the attention and concern of a preponderant majority of the American people. But the people must be made aware of the problem.
It is hardly necessary to belabor
the relative importance of the control of nuclear warfare. A constitutional amendment may be, indeed, the appropriate method. But the most
difficult issue remains. What should the amendment provide? How can the problem be solved specifically? The Constitution in section 8 of Article I stipulates that "[t]he Congress shall have power . . . To declare War. . . ." The idea seems to be that only these many representatives of the people, reflecting the public will, should possess the power to commit the lives and the fortunes of the nation to warfare. This approach makes much more sense in a democratic republic than entrusting the decision to one person, even though he may be designated the "Commander in Chief" of the military forces. His power is to command the war after the people, through their representatives, have made the basic choice to submit themselves and their
There is a recurring relevation of a paranoia of power throughout human history that has impelled one leader after another to draw their people into wars which, in hindsight, were foolish, unnecessary, and, in some instances, downright insane. Whatever may be the psychological influences that drive the single decisionmaker to these irrational
children to war. commitments of the lives and fortunes of others, the fact remains that the behavior is a predictable one in any government that does not provide an effective check and balance against
We, naturally, like to think that our leaders are above such irrational behavior. Eventually, however, human nature, with all its weakness, asserts itself whatever the setting. At least that is the
uncontrolled power in the hands of one human. evidence that experience and history give us, even in our own relatively benign society, where the Executive is subject to the rule of law. [*1640] Vietnam and other more recent engagements show that it can happen and has happened here. But
the "nuclear football"--the ominous "black bag" --remains in the
sole possession of the President.
92
China CP
93
2AC
Theory
Neg Fiat International Fiat PICs Bad Topical CPs
94
CP Cant solve Net benefits are non-unique Chinese FDI is skyrocketing Guthrie 12
U.S. China Policy: Campaign Issue not Punching Bag Doug Guthrie; Dean of the George Washington University School of Business; 10/03/2012 http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougguthrie/2012/10/03/u-s-china-policy-campaign-issue-not-punching-bag/ All these American attacks come as
China quietly increases its foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States to record
levels .
Since 2000
China has invested some $20.9 billion here, and that investment is on target to grow to as
, according to the Rhodium Group, a private company that tracks Chinese FDI. Rhodium reports that some 600 Chinese investments in the United States have created about 27,000 U.S. jobs since 2000. China
much as $2 trillion by 2020

Daily reported recently that
China increased its holding of U.S. Treasury securities by $2.6 billion in July, bringing the
total to $1.149 trillion and making it first among all countries to hold U.S. securities. China continues to buy our debt
even as our political leaders eviscerate U.S.-China relations in the campaign, yet behind the scenes they must secretly hope for China to remain our creditor. Meanwhile, last year nearly 160,000 Chinese students and more than 1 million Chinese tourists came to the United States, significant increases over past numbers and trends that are expected to continue.
China doesnt have any more money to invest kills solvency Xinhua 12
China's Sovereign Wealth Fund Suffers Losses in 2011 Xinhua 2012-07-26 http://english.cri.cn/6826/2012/07/26/3141s713689.htm
China's sovereign wealth fund posted losses in its overseas investment portfolios due to slow global economic recovery and the European debt crisis the nation's sovereign wealth fund lost 4.3 percent on its overseas portfolio for 2011 The bleak results even failed to beat inflation levels in China in past years when Chinese people had to endure an inflation rate of 5.9 percent
last year , marking the second annual deficit since it was established in 2007. China Investment Corporation (CIC), , said Wednesday that it . The accumulated annualized return since 2007 stood at 3.8 percent, according to its 2011 annual report, which did not give the specific amount of money it lost last year. in 2008 and 5.4 percent in 2011. Lou Jiwei, the CIC chairman, said in the report that he expected the world economy to recover slowly in the future with a "fragile" recovery foundation. Lou said it is likely for the global financial markets to experience major turbulence, and the CIC will continue to invest overseas in an "active and prudent way" as a long-term investor. The fund confirmed it received 30 billion U.S. dollars in cash injections from its shareholder, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, after
all its available funds had been
invested
last year.
FDI has negative solvency, creates conflict, hurts the economy, and prevents economic reform IIE 12
"Incorporating FDI into the development process: from traditional concerns to a new agenda for action" Institute for International Economics 2012 http://www.piie.com/publications/chapters_preview/53/10ie258x.pdf
at the dangers offered by foreign investors are substantially greater than conventional calculations would indicate foreign firms with subscale operations and protection from competition generate the usual list of inefficiencies and misallocation of resources in the host
Looking first and opportunities , both . On the negative side,
economy.
In many cases,
they leave the recipient country worse off than if it had never received the
. More than this, however, small protected
investment in the first place FDI creates a vicious dynamic of adverse signals and perverse incentives Instead of providing a path for growth FDI tends to produce stasis and conflict , generating constituents that are likely to use their influence their privileged position and undermine the impetus to economic reform those with constraints exhibit older technology and business practices and lag in introducing upgrades in technology and business practices. Constrained firms are less likely to export, and their backward linkages into the local economy are less sophisticated and dynamic
(both economic and political) for all parties. , dynamic learning, and development, this . Compared to foreign firms with no constraints on ownership, .
95
Everyone says no America Rosen and Hanemann, 11

professor at Columbia University, Fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Senior Advisor for International Economic Policy at the White House National Economic Council and National Security Council, AND* is Research Director at the Rhodium Group, specializing in Chinas macroeconomic development and the implications for global trade and investment flows (Daniel & Thilo, An American Open Door?: Maximising the Benefits of Chinese Foreign Direct investment, May 2011, http://www.ogilvypr.com/files/anamericanopendoor_china_fdi_study.pdf)//JKahn
greater concern is U.S. politics which is prone to capriciousness and ends up diverting the benefits of Chinese direct investment to workers and communities in other nations if not corrected. Political interference in the FDI screening process, whether to protect special interests here from economic competition or to pursue a fortress America vision of national security, will have a toxic effect on even the most well-thought-out policy regimes Chinese investments have been subject to serious politicization, an outgrowth of unfamiliarity, suspiciousness, lobbying efforts by vested interests, and the complexity of the overall U.S.China relationship One cannot eliminate political interference in a participatory democracy, . , random eruptions of protectionism masquerading as national security concern Even the modest level of Chinese direct investment to date has stoked political fires Keeping it open in the future will take work,
The not U.S. policy, but , . As shown in Section IV, it already has, as . CFIUS reviews are predictable s are not. , though Americas door to China so far has remained open.
but the consequences must be recognized and moderated. We must always keep the pressure on CFIUS to catch threats to America But while
but it can be done. An open door is no guarantee that people will walk in, though. Doors are open to China all around the worlda world in which America is no
longer the only place to set up shop. Here, we offer recommendations to promote each of these concluding imperatives: maintaining the best security screening process, keeping Americas door open to the benefits of China going global, and more actively attracting the right investments from China so the benefits for Americans are assured.
China Freeman AND Yuan 11

Chinas Investment in the United States --- National Initiatives, Corporate Goals, and Public Opinion Charles W. Freeman III; nonresident senior adviser for economic and trade affairs at CSIS, held the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, was the United States chief China trade negotiator, served as legislative counsel for international affairs in the Senate, senior adviser to McLarty Associates, the global strategic advisory firm based in Washington, D.C., serves on the boards of directors of the National Committee of U.S.-China Relations, earned a B.A. from Tufts University in Asian studies, concentrating in economics, also with honors, studied Chinese economic policymaking at Fudan University in Shanghai; and Wen Jin Yuan; Teaching Assistant for Quantitative Analysis of Policy Issues (Econometrics) at School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park PhD student in Policy Studies at University of Maryland, College Park; November 2011 http://csis.org/files/publication/111107_Freeman_Briefing_China_Investment_in_US.pdf
Though the Chinese Government has a strong motivation to push companies to increase their OFDI the government also faces severe constraints in pushing its initiative by
the state-owned oil giants and technology , it is worth noting that
fiat with an increasingly vibrant Chinese news media and the quick spread of information in China today stateowned enterprises face constant scrutiny from the Chinese general public when making investment decisions.
. First, , these oil giants and other
For instance, due to the global financial crisis in 2008, the market value of CICs investment in Blackstone and Morgan Stanley plummeted, arousing doubt and criticism among
the Chinese general public. In late 2008 the Chinese News media reported that CIC had sharply curtailed its overseas invest ment activities, particularly in the overseas capital market. Moreover, in 2010, an article was circulated on Kaixin001.com, a Chinese version of facebook, stating that 71% of Chinas OFDI is from state-controlled enterprises and 65% of them suffered losses. The article attracted more than 17,000 comments from Chinese netizens, denouncing the Chinese governments OFDI initiative, arguing that the government should not allow the taxpayers to pay for the investment failures of state-controlled enterprises. 18 Most recently, CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinopec all came under attack in Chinas news media for the huge losses they have recorded on their overseas investments. According to a report by the 21 st Century Economic Report, a China-based news outlet, as of the end of 2010, CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinopec had implemented 144 investment projects around the world. In dollar terms, these projects amounted to US$70 billion. However, the report cited an anonymous senior manager in one of the above state-owned oil giants, stating that the massive overseas investments of the three oil giants did not bring in any significant returns. For example, these companies shipped back only a disproportionate 5 million tons of crude oil from abroad in 2010. 19 In addition, a separate report by China Petroleum University said that two thirds of the three companies overseas investment projects suffered losses. Sinopecs experience reflects this difficulty: in 2009 the company sustained US$15 million in losses on its three overseas oil
The exposure of losses by the Chinese news media has aroused the publics doubts of the state-owned investment vehicles ability to make money in international strategic assets markets, and in turn will limit investment choices in the foreseeable future
fields. 20 these CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopecs .
Companies Steinbock 12
Why Chinese FDI Remains Marginal in the United States Dan Steinbock; Research Director of International Business at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Visiting Fellow at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, Visiting Fellow at EU Center in Singapore, senior Fulbright scholar, affiliated with New York University, Columbia Graduate School for Business and New School for Social Research, has cooperated with Prof Michael E. Porter at Harvard Business School; February 29th, 2012 http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/02/why-chinese-fdi-remainsmarginal-in-the-united-states/
As Chinas sovereign wealth fund expressed its interest in investing in U.S. infrastructure, Chinese investment in infrastructure came under renewed scrutiny Chinese companies recorded a failure rate of 11 percent in their attempts at buying or merging with foreign firms the challenges are often explained by the failure rate of Chinese companies, which is attributed to inexperience Chinese firms are very young and have substantial challenges in the foreign markets. In the United States, many of the established multinational corporations were founded more than a century ago. Even the leading hightech firms are some half a century old. In contrast, Chinese companies that hope to become global must learn very much very quickly about new markets, competitors, regulatory systems, and cultures
and European telecom . A year ago, , according to research firm Dealogic. The rate for the US was 2 percent and that for the UK 1 percent, respectively. In Washington, . And certainly, it is true that , from General Motors to Coca-Cola, , such as H-P and Intel, .
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Developing Countries DA Chinese FDI is focused on developing countries now OECD 8

CHINAS OUTWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT Jonathan Coppel; OECD; March 2008 http://www.oecd.org/investment/investmentpolicy/40283257.pdf
Chinas OFDI is dominated by state-owned enterprises All of the ten largest Chinese multinational enterprises by OFDI stock are SOEs In recent years, Chinas OFDI has been flowing into developing countries at a higher rate than to industrialised economies These have registered a sevenfold increase over the period 2003-06. Among developing countries, however, China has become a leading source of FDI in Africa. These investments are geographically diversified, reaching 48 countries in the continent
(SOEs), as their average investment size is much larger than that of Chinese enterprises in the private sector. , and more than half are operating in the natural resources sector. Overall, however, the services sector has attracted the largest sectoral share of Chinas OFDI, followed by the primary and manufacturing sectors. . In particular, Chinese investments into Africa have attracted high prominence. The increase has been from a low base, and Chinas investment position in Africa is considerably smaller than those from traditional investor countries from Europe and North America, accounting for less than 1 per cent of the total FDI stock in Africa. . While accessing natural resources is a motivation for Chinese investors, market-seeking investment is also a prominent motivation for Chinese enterprises investing in Africa, especially in the manufacturing and the construction sectors. The majority of Chinese investment projects in Africa have been carried out by small and medium-sized enterprises and their average size is relatively small. When measured by value, however, the bulk of Chinas OFDI is located in resource-rich countries, including Algeria, Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan and Zambia.
FDI causes war zerosum competition IIE 12

"Incorporating FDI into the development process: from traditional concerns to a new agenda for action" Institute for International Economics 2012 http://www.piie.com/publications/chapters_preview/53/10ie258x.pdf
the characteristics of the industries in which FDI is found suggest a more serious, genuinely zero-sum struggle that is embedded with strategic-trade properties. The same rent-generating, spillover-producing, externality-rich operations of international companies have become prominent targets for capture by developed countries
But - imperfect competition, high wages, high benefits, high product differentiation, high research and development, large economies of scale - often with agglomeration features of scope, scale, and specialization (at least in the automotive, petrochemical, and electronics/computer sectors examined here) , or recapture,
as well. The international corporate activities that helped to create the industrial complexes of Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, Monterrey, Matamoros, Surabaya, Jubail, and Penang,
and could generate thick economics clusters of similar dimensions within new hosts like China, Russia, Romania, and Vietnam or within old hosts like India, Argentina, and the Philippines, have become prime objects for diversion back to locations in Eur ope, North America, and North Asia. The central components of the counteroffensive - locational incentives, rules of origin, and antidumping regulations - are not just being used to protect inefficient industries but rather to recast the shape of economic geography, often along paths contrary to what comparative advantage
competition for international corporate investment will not necessarily be moderated by more thoughtful leaders Only common agreement to limit competition for FDI can control the escalatory dynamics of strategictrade warfare
would otherwise dictate. The use of the strategic-trade framework to analyze this struggle is not just a theoretical embellishment. In contrast to conventional trade analysis, the strategic-trade framework suggests that the careful analyses showing that protection and promotion hurt the economy that engages in them. Instead, those thoughtful leaders are likely to be able to find justification in the data for energetic protection and promotion, just as their less thoughtful counterparts will. the .
and more
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Corruption DA Corruption in America is increasing foreign investment contributes to that NYT 12

The Spreading Scourge of Corporate Corruption EDUARDO PORTER July 10, 2012 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/business/ec onomy/the-spreading-scourge-of-corporate-corruption.html?_r=0
the most surprising aspect of the Libor scandal is how familiar it seems for some of the worlds leading banks to try to manipulate one of the most important interest rates in contemporary finance is clearly egregious. But is that worse than packaging billions of dollars worth of dubious mortgages into a bond and having it stamped with a Triple-A rating to sell to some dupe down the road while betting against it? Or how about forging documents on an industrial scale to foreclose fraudulently on countless homeowners? The misconduct of the financial industry no longer surprises most Americans. Only about one in five has much trust in banks about half the level in 2007 Sixty-two percent of Americans believe corruption is widespread across corporate America. three in four Americans believe that corruption has increased over the last three years. corporate wrongdoing has come to be such a routine occurrence The parade of financiers accused of misdeeds, booted from the executive suite and even occasionally jailed, is undermining this essential element
Perhaps . Sure, , according to Gallup polls, in big business overall is declining. According to Transparency International, an anticorruption watchdog, nearly We should be alarmed that seen as . Capitalism cannot function without trust. As the Nobel laureate Kenneth Arrow observed, Virtually every commercial transaction has within itself an element of trust. . Have corporations lost whatever ethical compass they once had? Or does it just look that way because we are paying more attention than we used to? This is hard to answer because fraud and corruption are impossible to measure precisely. Perpetrators understandably do their best to hide the dirty deeds from public view. And public perceptions of fraud and corruption are often colored by peoples sense of dissatisfaction with their lives. Last year, the economists Justin Wolfers and Betsey Stevenson from the University of Pennsylvania published a study suggesting that trust in government and business falls when unemployment rises. Much of the recent decline in confidence particularly in the financial sector may simply be a standard response to a cyclical downturn, they
. And its not just banks that are frowned upon. Trust
waves of mistrust can spread broadly Americans are losing trust in a broad range of institutions, including Congress, the Supreme Court, the presidency, public schools, labor unions and the church.
wrote. And . After years of dismal employment prospects, upswing, when executives must be the most creative to keep the stream of profits rolling in. The most toxic, no-doc, reverse amortization, liar loans flourished toward the end of the housing bubble. And we typically discover fraud only after the booms have turned to bust. As Warren Buffett famously said, You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.
Corporate wrongdoing may be cyclical, too. Fraud is probably more lucrative, as well as easier to hide, amid the general prosperity of economic booms. And the temptation to bend the rules is probably highest toward the end of an economic
Company executives are paid to maximize profits, not to behave ethically. Evidence suggests that they behave as corruptly as they can, within whatever constraints are imposed by law and reputation Extrapolating from frauds that were uncovered during and after the dot-com bubble economists estimated conservatively that in any given year a fraud was being committed by 11 to 13 percent of the large companies in the country corruption has become more prevalent over the years In 2001, Transparency Internationals Corruption Perceptions Index ranked the United States as the 16th least-corrupt country. By last year, the nation had fallen to 24th place The World Bank also reports a weakening of corruption controls in the United States since the late 1990s, so that it is falling behind breaking the rules has become standard behavior in the corporate world is how routine the wrongdoing seems to its participants
. In 1977, the United States Congress passed the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, to stop the rampant practice of bribing foreign officials. Business by American multinationals in the most corrupt countries dropped. But they didnt stop bribing. And American companies have been lobbying against the law ever since. , the Luigi Zingales and Adair Morse of the University of Chicago and Alexander Dyck of the University of Toronto . Yet it may be wrong to shrug off the latest boomlet of corporate crimes and misdemeanors as a mere reflection of the business cycle. Americans appear to believe that . And some indicators suggest they may be right. . most other developed nations. The most pointed evidence that . Dude. I owe you big time!... Im opening a bottle of Bollinger, e-mailed one Barclays trader to a colleague for fiddling with the rate and improving the apparent profit of his derivatives book. Its difficult to know why corruption may be spreading. But there are a few plausible explanations. From globalization to rising income inequality to the growing role of corporate money in political campaigns, political and economic dynamics may have increased both the scope of corporate wrongdoing and the incentives for
consider the scale of recent wrongdoing. Libor is one of the most important rates in the economy. It determines the return on the savings of millions of people, as well as the rate they pay on their mortgage and car loans. It is the benchmark for hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of financial contracts
business executives to bend, or break, the rules. Just
. Bigger markets allow bigger frauds. Bigger companies, with more complex balance sheets, have more places to hide them. And banks, when they get big enough that no government will let them fail, have the biggest incentive of all. A
20-year-old study by the economists Paul Romer and George Akerlof pointed out that the most lucrative strategy for executives at too-big-to-fail banks would be to loot them to pay themselves vast rewards knowing full well that the government would save them from bankruptcy.
Globalization can encourage corruption, as companies compete tooth and claw for new markets. And the furious rush of corporate cash into the political process which differs from bribery in that companies pay politicians to change laws rather than bureaucrats to ignore them is unlikely to foment ethical behavior participants in contests in which the winner takes all are much more likely to cheat. And the United States is becoming a winner-takes-all economy
. The inexorable rise of income inequality is also likely to encourage fraud, fostering resentment and undermining trust in capitalisms institutions and rules. Economic research shows that . Its hard to fathom the broader social implications of corporate wrongdoing. But its most long-lasting impact may be on Americans trust in the institutions that underpin the nations liberal market democracy.
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That deters foreign investment substantially Glass 6

Infrastructure & FDI Amy Glass; Department of Economics, Texas A&M University; 2006 http://econweb.tamu.edu/aglass/InfrastructureFDI.pdf
Corruption is the misuse of public power or authority for private gain corruption can matter for FDI Using data on bilateral investment from twelve source countries to 45 host countries an increase in the corruption level in the host country leads to a reduction in inward FDI. An increase in the corruption level is estimated to have the same effect of deterring inward FDI as raising the tax rate by fifty percent
. Wei (2000) established corruptions deterrent effect on FDI. , Wei finds that from that of Singapore to that of Mexico
. Corruption tends to arise when governments control access to markets, so naturally
Plan solves empirically reduces corruption Queiroz AND Visser 1

Corruption, Transport Infrastructure Stock and Economic Development Cesar Queiroz (Lead Highway Engineer Infrastructure Sector Unit Europe and Central Asia Region World Bank) and Alex Visser (SA Roads Board Professor of Transportation Engineering Department of Civil Engineering University of Pretoria) MAY 2-11, 2001 http://www2.udec.cl/~provial/expo/WB%20Infrast%20Forum%20May%202001%20TranspInfra&Corrup%20CQ%20AV.pdf
A cross-country comparison of data on corruption and transport infrastructure stock suggests that a country's per capita availability of infrastructure is positively associated with decreased corruption. The measures used in the comparison are the density of paved roads, measured in km per population, and the "corruption perception index" of a country, measured on a scale of 0 (highly corrupt) to 10 (highly clean).
Plan solves attracts FDI Glass 6

Infrastructure & FDI Amy Glass; Department of Economics, Texas A&M University; 2006 http://econweb.tamu.edu/aglass/InfrastructureFDI.pdf
More FDI is likely to occur in countries with good physical infrastructure especially for countries with poor infrastructure, investing in improvements in infrastructure may be important for attracting FDI a country with more infrastructure would be expected to attract more FDI The positive effect of infrastructure on FDI has been found to be quite robust extensive transportation infrastructures were associated with increased FDI
such as bridges, ports, highways, etc. It also seems likely that there are some diminishing returns in infrastructure, at least in infrastructure of a specified type. The first bridge is more important than the second than the third than the hundredth, and so on. Therefore, Nonetheless, some countries with poor infrastructure may be unattractive hosts for FDI for a variety of other reasons, and even substantial investments in infrastructure might not bring FDI pouring in. But all else equal, (as well as more domestic investment). to time periods and countries considered, other control variables included, and the like. Examining the determinants of FDI into U.S. states for 1981-1983, Coughlin et al (1991) find that more . Wheeler and Mody (1992) find that infrastructure quality is an important variable for developing countries seeking to attract FDI from the United States, but is less important for developed countries that already have high quality infrastructures. Using a self-reinforcing
model of FDI, Cheng and Kwan (2000) find support for good infrastructure (density of roads) as a determinant of FDI into 29 Chinese regions from 1985 to 1995. The quality of the roads, however, did not seem to matter much: high-grade paved roads did not perform any better than all roads in determining which regions hosted the most FDI.
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CFDI Bad Chinese FDI fails and backfires theyll steal jobs, tech, and security Ellis 12
Letters from America: Chinese Investment in the U.S. Strategy is Key Chris Devonshire-Ellis; Founding Partner of Dezan Shira & Associates, which he established in 1992. The firm celebrates its 20th anniversary in November. Chris subsequently established China Briefing, now part of the Asia Briefing Publications Group, in 1999. Chris takes up his new position as Senior Partner for North America; December 10, 2012 http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2012/12/10/letters-from-america-chinese-investment-in-the-u-s-strategy-is-key.html Not all
Chinese investments are state driven
, but the majority are. Of these, many are huge investments that get handled on a government-to-government basis involving political considerations and huge corporations.
The likes of Canadas Nexen being acquired by CNOOC is one example of this. However, it is also true that smaller privately-held Chinese companies are investing abroad, albeit with the caveat that they first gain approval from the Chinese government and that the capital outflows involved are carefully monitored by the State. So, in short,
even Chinese entrepreneurs need to have government connections
, and the line between what appears to
be a purely entrepreneurial-driven company and one with Chinese state involvement, even within this, can be difficult at times to ascertain. At such levels, my experience dictates that Indias entrepreneurs are typically more globally savvy and transparent than their Chinese counterparts, who have grown up and developed in a state-dominated commercial sector. It remains a sobering fact that while 90 percent of the companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange are owned by entrepreneurs, 90 percent of those listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen are
Such state dominance impacts upon the true entrepreneurial skills of the Chinese executive, and operations in China may not transfer particularly well to the compliance and transparency standards that exist as regulatory structures in the United States. Chinese investments overseas tend to be systematic in approach and possess an underlying strategy that may not be immediately apparent. Chinese investments into Americas aviation industry will assist it in developing its own aircraft. American aviation technology, Chinese built and owned. So who do the newly-acquired American companies now hope to be selling to? China. in the longer term it would seem to make little sense to manufacture aircraft components for a Chinese market thousands of miles away the majority of revenues and the taxes these generate will be from sales in China, not the United States
partially or wholly-owned by the Chinese state. As just one example, consider the recent . Arlingtons Glasair, Hawker Beechcraft of Kansas, and Cirrus Aircraft of Minnesota have all been acquired exclusively due to the Chinese strategy of buying technology that That is happening the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) is already up and running, and is looking for orders beyond those it already has obtained from Chinese airlines for its new C919. Comacs C919. Just how long it will be before the technology is absorbed is hard to say, but . And consider again that . Also, the Chinese development of the C919 is in direct competition to Boeing and Airbus, and while it makes sense for China to want to develop its own commercial aircraft, it appears that the technology to make that happen is being acquired from America itself. It may also be true to say that civil aircraft design and
until U.S. firms can develop a new generation of engines, American technology is being sold to Chinese manufacturers to make aircraft with no discernible long-term tax or revenue benefits to the nation, and in a product that will compete with a domestic manufacturer for overseas (i.e. Chinese) sales
technology has gone as far as it can, and that China is in fact buying existing technology that will, at some point, become outdated. But . Thats Chinese strategy at work right there, and I question how much thought has gone into looking at Chinese investments a nd the implications associated with the U.S. policy of specifically attracting inbound Chinese investment. I suspect not a great deal. One interesting contrast with how business is conducted in the United States and how it is conducted in China is the manner in which investing companies have to apply for business licenses. In the United States, anyone can open up a company and begin trading, pretty much the only barrier being financial.
In China, all investing companies must go

That means that the Chinese have an idea of what sort of
through an entire examination process this has to be submitted to the Chinese government before approval is even granted. if your investment does not pan out the way you intended either through bad planning, or attempts to deceive the government the State retains the right to fine the foreign investor or even cancel the business license. In this manner they keep track of every single foreign investment in China. America may be losing data or control over investments emanating from the PRC
which includes laying out specific business plans, revenue projections and data concerning the number of employees, turnover and future investments. All revenues and tax generation and job creation should be possible before any investment is approved. It also means that (even worse) over your true intentions Its a great system in many ways and I wonder again if by engaging a looser approach, . The Chinese predilection for looking after the Motherland first is not a new one. When acting as Governor of Java in 1818, the Founder of Singapore Sir Stamford Raffles issued a number of taxes, including a Capitation Tax, specifically on Chinese merchants. This was due to the fact that they tended to organize themselves into positions of monopolistic trade, working in effective
One can take a shrewd look at British auto manufacturer Manganese Bronze, maker of the ubiquitous London taxi cab. Based with assembly plants in Coventry, England, the company entered into a joint venture with Chinas Geely. While Geely owned just 20 percent, part of the production was allowed to relocate to Shanghai, which then later assumed responsibility for all international sales. Back in the UK, the Coventry plant has just declared bankruptcy after a recall of over 400 orders caused in part by faulty components from the China plant. The London taxi cab, its iconic image, brand and technology is now effectively fully Chinese-owned and controlled from the Shanghai operations of Geely. What is currently left in the UK is a publicly-traded company in administration, and over 300 workers jobless.
Chinese cartels and remitting all proceeds back to China without leaving any tangible benefits for Java, save the local employment of labor. It is an oft-repeated story. also It took just six years to strip out the UK parent and then effectively discard the empty shell.
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Chinese FDI is bad no benefits, tech-stealing, and dependency Meunier 12

Tiger Parents: Is There Something 'Different' About Chinese FDI in the U.S. and Europe? Sophie Meunier; Research Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson School and Co-director of the EU Program, Princeton University; 06/04/2012 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sophie-meunier/amcentertainment-bought_b_1568072.html
the influx of Chinese FDI is a new situation Throughout the 20th century, direct investment flowed almost exclusively from developed to developing economies Investing in Europe and the U.S. enables Chinese companies to move up the global value chain, but this may be posing some "existential" problems for politicians Chinese investment will likely be supportive of Chinese exports (through distribution, parts and service) and therefore may not create the type of well-paying jobs that FDI from rich countries has created and supported in the past. China's authoritarian state and "capitalism with socialist characteristics" heightens sensitivity toward Chinese FDI in Western democracies. While the full extent of the Communist party's control of private and quasi-private firms in China is not clear, it is estimated that 66 percent of the stock of Chinese direct investment abroad comes from state-owned enterprises. In China, however, where the state owns a controlling interest in a variety of FDI-seeking companies, one can suspect that these companies are acting to fulfill strategic, rather than profit-maximizing, goals China is both a potential military rival, as well as a heavy investor in "rogue" states such as North Korea and Iran. One concern is that Chinese FDI in certain sectors runs the risk of enabling commercial and state espionage and creates the possibility of dual-use technologies transferring into the hands of the People's Liberation Army or pariah regimes the flow of technology has so far been rather unidirectional, with the investors learning the technology in the host country and exporting it back to China, instead of bringing in technology along with the investment countries will become dependent on Chinese investment, which could provide China with political and security leverage
First, for affluent countries more accustomed to investing in emerging, problematic economies than being treated like one of them. other emerging economies, such as India investing in Brazil or China in Africa. A much more recent phenomenon is that emerging countries, chief among them China, are now starting to invest in developed countries. some European . Moreover, much of A second novelty is the nature of the political regime under which Chinese investors operate --the Soviet Union did not invest in the West. In many countries, a company's investment abroad would be a purely commercial decision. . The security environment poses a third novel challenge. . A second concern is that, contrary to historical precedents, . A third concern is that European . So the recent explosion of Chinese outward foreign direct investment presents a complicated dilemma for American and European policymakers. On the one hand, Chinese acquisitions have the exciting potential to improve and perhaps save struggling companies, benefitting employees,
. Europe and the United States were, and still are, the largest investors worldwide and the largest stakeholders in each others' economies. Outward direct investment originating in developing countries exploded in the past decade, mainly in the direction of
Chinese investment comes with several national security concerns, which carry particular significance because of China's non-market economy, pattern of economic espionage, and poor track record with national security and human rights
shareholders, and local economies. On the other hand, . It also comes without a guarantee to provide the above benefits.
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Sea Basing CP
1. Perm do both 2. Seabasing fails costly and inflexible Robert E. Harkavy, Professor of Political Science at Pennsylvania State University, 2006, Thinking about Basing,
http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/zselden/Course%20Readings/Harkavy.pdf
The CBO report briefly discusses four arguments against sea basing, whether on a modest or major scale. (36) Those arguments are the possible inability of even maximal sea-basing schemes to deal with large-scale military operations, such as in Iraq in 1990-91 and 2003; the vulnerability of sea bases to attack from ballistic and cruise missiles, maybe even greater than that of less concentrated land bases; the seeming unlikelihood that the United States would attempt large scale amphibious operations when it has not done so since the Korean War; and the expense of all the new ships and connectors needed. Though the third argument may be specious--this is what sea basing is all about, the projected lesser availability of land bases in an ambiguously evolving global political climate--but the other three are serious. For instance, the sea-basing force envisioned by the CBO for 2035 could cost seventy to ninety billion dollars over that period. Such numbers would dwarf the current non-Egypt/Israel security assistance budgets, raising the
prospect of trade-offs between them and sea basing. 3. Perm do the plan then the cp 4. Cant solve global warming
5. Seabasing cant respond to new threats and trades off with other military capabilities Tangredi, Sam J - regional director of the planning consulting firm Strategic Insight Ltd / retired U.S. Navy captain 10/1/11, SEA BASING: Concept, Issues, and Recommendations,
Publication: Naval War College Review, http://www.readperiodicals.com/201110/2441210281.html#b
Whether sea basing can replace land bases, or at least dependence on land bases, raises bureaucratic issues within DoD that contribute to the reluctance to commit to joint sea basing. For one thing, a greater commitment to sea basing along with a qualitative or quantitative reduction in overseas land basesmight cause allies and partners to question American commitment to mutual defense. To some extent, however, it is a question of foresight. If the future of American war fighting consists of pacifying terror-supporting insurgent groups within landlocked countries or continuing the use of quick-striking SOF forces supported by land-based tactical aviation (including unmanned aerial vehicles flown from the continental United States), investment in sea basing would not seem a priority.22 At times this seems to be Secretary Gatess view, but not always. 23 If future wars are going to be dominated by ever more precise global strike from the continental United Stateswhich would seem to be the U.S. Air Forces preferred futuresea basing would also seem a low priority. However, if the future involves a range of regional crises in which the United States wishes to retain direct influence, there is a lot to commend sea basing as a primary instrument. As antiaccess capabilities of potential opponents expand, the survival of regional land bases becomes problematic. The exact locations of these bases are well known; they can be struck repeatedly by ballisticmissiles relying solely on preprogrammed coordinates. But prioritizing sea basing could also mean a future defense posture in which overall DoD force structure is predominantly maritime. Relying primarily on naval assets as the foundation of most joint force regional basing could be seen as a defeat for jointnesswhich is still largely considered in DoD to mean proportional shares of the pie for all services (and major defense agencies).This is a formula that theGates Pentagondid not break, and as defense cuts are imposed on major acquisition programs, it is likely that they will affect the services roughly equally. Although the developing planning related to the Air/Sea Battle operational concept would seem to be bringing Air Force
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Navy cooperation to a peak, the potential for competition for resources between sea basing and global strike in a flat defense budget is obvious. At the same time, the Air Force is not keen to admit the vulnerability of its long-term regional bases,
which are presumed to be TANGREDI 35 required if land-based tactical aviation is to be effectively applied to a regional contingency. The Army has an interest in resupplying its forces presumably already on the groundby sea, but it has no interest in becoming a secondmarine corps. Until May 2011, the Armys focuswith program leadership by the Department of the Navywas the development of the Joint High Speed Vessel (JHSV), a ferry-based logistics catamaran built by Austal USA. The JHSV,which is not considered combat survivable, is designed for high-speed insertion of troops in soft power missionsresponding to natural disasters, providing humanitarian assistance, conducting port visits and training partner military forces, among others.24 InMay, the Army transferred its share of the JHSV program to the Navy. Under these circumstances, sea-basing proponents might emphasize supplementing regional bases rather than replacing them. But in a flat or shrinking defense budget, supplementing any capability would likely be seen as a luxury.
6. Sea Basing will fail we dont have the technology Henning Mark, Commander in the US Navy, works in US Army Way College in Pennsylvania 2005 US Navy Transformation: Sea Basing as Sea Power 21 Prototype,
USAWC http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA432391 In summary, this strategic research paper has presented differing perspectives on what has been argued as Sea Power 21's most transformational pillar, Sea Basing. From a naval perspective, Sea Basing is a capability inherent in the Navys vision of future joint warfare; however, transformation requires tough choices and the current operating concept requires greater Army and Air Force input. From an expeditionary perspective, Sea Basing is a fundamental requirement to transform the Marine Corpss vision of future joint warfare and only minor refinements are needed to the current operating concept. From a land power perspective, Sea Basing is an important capability in future joint warfare but the current operating concept has major logistics challenges that must first be overcome if it is to support Army and Air Force units. From a joint perspective, Sea Basing is an important component of the revised global force posture for
The perspective from the scientific community is that Sea Basing is technically feasible with focused research and development but significant achievements in operational capability are unlikely by 2015. As a result of these differing perspectives, Congressional budget and maritime industrial planners have expressed concern over the disparity between the Navys Sea Basing vision, shipbuilding plans, and budget inputs. Throughout
future joint warfare, and therefore, the joint staff is moving forward in their development of the Sea Basing Joint Integrating Concept. this research paper, it has been argued that an incremental, evolutionary approach to Sea Basing is appropriate as the U.S. Navy transitions from its role as a Cold War Superpower to a 21st
Proposed programs based on Sea Power 21's Sea Basing vision are a risky investment: "a bridge too far" in terms of time, technology, joint interoperability and money. Recent experiences in Sea Basing demonstrate that low risk alternatives exist today and suggest that simpler, cheaper ways and
century Hegemon. Critiques from military leaders as well as historical perspectives all validate a Sea Basing requirement. means may provide an adequate solution to the problem of how to transform the U.S. Navy while winning the GWOT. Experience gained through fleet exercises, theater security cooperation, and future ad hoc operations are required; a critical eye should be maintained for future windows of opportunity where technology, resources, and operational doctrine converge to enable a truly, revolutionary transformation. 7. Links to net ben 8. Advantage cps bad- steal aff ground and arent predictable- impossible to predict all possible things that can help econ and gw- time skews round.
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Carbon Tax CP
1. Perm do both
2. A carbon tax would hurt the economy businesses cant expand. Johnson 12 policy research associate at Americans for Tax Reform, June 14, Kissing Cousins and Carbon Taxes, Americans for Tax Reform, http://www.atr.org/kissing-cousinscarbon-taxes-a6970
Testifying in front of the Senate Finance Committee on tax and energy issues, Harvards Dr. Dale Jorgenson proposed a tax increase on fossil fuels equivalent to a 1.5 percent increase in federal revenues as a percent of GDP. Chairman Baucus asked if the increase is a cousin to a carbon tax and Dr. Jorgenson replied a kissing cousin. Defending the tax increase as a way to reduce consumption of carbon based fuels; Dr. Jorgenson claimed such a tax would be most effective if heavily weighted towards coalthis sounds like a carbon tax to us. A carbon tax harms American industries and consumers at a time when businesses need access to cheap energy sources so they can grow our way out of the Great Recession. The Energy Information Agency estimated that coal, oil and natural gas represent 83 percent of US energy sources as of 2010. The same study found that 76 percent of commercial and residential energy consumption and 41 percent of industrial consumption comes from natural gas while petroleum, as expected, represents 94 percent of transportation energy consumption. Additionally, 92 percent of coal produced in this country goes to electrical power generationpower plants designed to sell electricity to the public to heat and cool our homes. Raising taxes on oil, coal and natural gas drives up costs for everyone and prevents businesses from expanding. Dr. Jorgenson claimed a carbon tax will raise revenues and reduce consumption of fossil fuels, but ignored the negative effects this has on economic growth. When the government taxes something we get less of it so hoping to increase revenues and reduce consumption of fossil fuels with a carbon tax seems like faulty logic to us. This is the same logic behind cigarette taxes
designed to curb smoking and raise revenuethe government wants to tax your cake and eat it too. 3. Perm do Plan then the CP
4. CP causes more emissions from the developing world Elliott et al 12 research scientist and fellow at University of Chicago Computation Institute, Ian Foster, Sam Kortum, Gita Khun
Jush, Todd Munson, David Weisbach, February 27, The University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory, Unilateral Carbon Taxes, Border Tax Adjustments and Carbon Leakage, INSTITUTE FOR LAW AND ECONOMICS WORKING PAPER NO. 600 (2D Series), page 3 http://ssrn.com/abstract=2072696
While there are a number of important motivations for this approach, there are two central concerns. The first is whether a carbon price that exempts developing nations can sufficiently reduce global emissions. The developing world is expected to be a major source of emissions in the future. Even if the developed world were to cut its emissions drastically, atmospheric carbon dioxide would not be stabilized by this action alone. The second concern is that if only developed nations impose carbon controls, emissions in the developing world might go up, offsetting any reductions, in a phenomenon known as carbon leakage. Carbon leakage is thought to arise for two reasons. First, if only a subset of nations impose controls on emissions of carbon dioxide, energy-intensive production may flee to regions without controls. Second, if nations with carbon controls use fewer fossil fuels, the price of fossil fuels may go down, resulting in more use in other regions. Carbon leakage has the potential to defeat the purpose of having carbon controls, inefficiently shift the location of production and energy use, and create
domestic political challenges. 5. Advantage cps bad- steal aff ground and arent predictable- impossible to predict all possible things that can help econ and gw- time skews round.
104
OTEC CP
1. Perm do both 2. OTEC is unfeasible only a few hundred sites worldwide U.S Department of Energy, 10-20-2010, Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion, Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy,
http://www.energysavers.gov/renewable_energy/ocean/index.cfm/mytopic=50010
OTEC power plants require substantial capital investment upfront. OTEC researchers believe private sector firms probably will be unwilling to make the enormous initial investment required to build large-scale plants until the price of fossil fuels increases dramatically or until national governments provide financial incentives. Another factor hindering the commercialization of OTEC is that there are only a few hundred land-based sites in the tropics where deep-ocean water is close enough to shore to make OTEC plants feasible.
3. Perm do plan then cp
4. No investment for OTEC still too risky and expensive Becca Friedman, Harvard Political Review, 6-17-2008, Examining the future of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion, Ocean Energy Council,
http://www.oceanenergycouncil.com/index.php/OTEC-News/Examining-the-future-of-Ocean-Thermal-Energy-Conversion.html
OTEC prototype has yet to be developed. The high costs of building even a model pose the main barrier. Although piecemeal experiments have proven the effectiveness of the individual components, a large-scale plant has never been built. Luis
Despite the sound science, a fully functioning Vega of the Pacific International Center for High Technology Research estimated in an OTEC summary presentation that a commercial-size five-megawatt OTEC plant could cost from 80 to 100
the combination of cost and risk is OTECs main liability. Weve talked to inventors and other constituents over the years, and its still a matter of huge capital investment and a huge risk, and there are many [alternate forms of energy] that are less risky that could produce power with the same certainty,
million dollars over five years. According to Terry Penney, the Technology Manager at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Penney told the HPR.
5. OTEC cant solve weather Becca Friedman, Harvard Political Review, 6-17-2008, Examining the future of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion, Ocean Energy Council,
http://www.oceanenergycouncil.com/index.php/OTEC-News/Examining-the-future-of-Ocean-Thermal-Energy-Conversion.html
OTEC is highly vulnerable to the elements in the marine environment. Big storms or a hurricane like Katrina could completely disrupt energy production by mangling the OTEC plants. Were a country completely dependent on oceanic energy, severe weather could be debilitating. In addition, there is a risk that the salt water surrounding an OTEC plant would cause the machinery to rust or corrode or fill up with seaweed or mud, according to a National Renewable Energy Laboratory spokesman.
Moreover, Advantage cps bad- steal aff ground and arent predictable- impossible to predict all possible things that can help econ and gw- time skews round.
105
H1B CP
1. turn-CP Decreases American Jobs- companies replacing with H1-B immigrants Phyllis Schlafly 12, columnist for Town Hall Daily and author of Feminist Fantasies, H1-B Visas Take American Jobs, Town Hall, 3/20/12,
http://townhall.com/columnists/phyllisschlafly/2012/03/20/h1b_visas_take_american_jobs
Why does the government continue to issue and extend H-1B visas when there are tons of Americans just like my husband with no job?" Her husband is a semiconductor engineer who was laid off three years ago and is still unable to find an engineering job. We all would like the answer to that question. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that, counting only U.S.-born individuals, there are 101,000 with an engineering degree who are unemployed, another 244,000 who are not working or not looking for work and therefore not counted in unemployment statistics, and an additional 1.47 million who have an engineering degree but are not working as an engineer. Obama's answer to Wedel sounded like he had been well briefed by the big corporation lobbyists. He even expressed bewilderment that any U.S. high-tech engineer could
When President Obama was participating in a live video chat, Jennifer Wedel asked him, " be out of work because industry executives tell him there is an unfilled "huge demand" for engineers. Obama said, "H-1Bs should be reserved only for those companies who say they cannot find somebody in that particular field." Yes, indeed, they should. But in fact, they are not. Created in 1990, the H-1B program was designed for employers to import foreign H-1B workers to
, the big corporation lobbyists succeeded in fuzzying up the law so there is now no effective rule to prevent employers from firing American jobholders and replacing them with H-1B aliens. Big companies prefer H-1B workers because they can pay them significantly less than Americans, never have to give them a raise or promotion, and have the unilateral power to deport them. H-1B workers don't dare to complain about working conditions or
fill various high-tech jobs only when Americans could not be found, and the law was supposed to make it illegal for an employer to replace an American with an H-1B worker. However unpaid long hours, and they can't quit to take a better job. Most H-1B workers are imported for entry-level jobs and trained by experienced U.S. workers who are then laid off. This process has introduced a new expression and acronym into the English language -- DYOG: Dig Your Own Grave. One senator understands this problem: Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa. In a letter to the president last month, he pointed out how Obama's response to Jennifer Wedel shows he is only regurgitating the corporation lobbyists' sales talk with their phony mantra that "there are better and brighter people abroad."
2. Perm do both 3. Perm do plan then cp 4. Immigrants cant solve the coming economic crises Evan Nolan, JD Candidate Georgetown University Law Center, Fall 2009, Picking Up After The Baby Boomers: Can Immigrants Carry The Load?, 24 Geo. Immigr. L.J. 77, Lexis
The general suggestion recently put forth by social scientists promotes liberalization of immigration laws as a response to resolving the imminent crises of the Baby Boomer retirement. n110 They believe that an influx of immigrants could fill the void in the U.S. workforce left behind by the retiring Baby Boomers and help pick up part of the tab for the Baby Boomers' Social Security
it is essential to understand how small of an impact these immigrants could make on solving the pending workforce and entitlement crises, and I point out where they fall short. Such policy decisions may help resolve the immigration debate, for now, but they still
and Medicare benefits. I recognize that the Baby Boomer crises may provide excellent justification for opening the doors to more liberalized immigration policies. However, leave the Baby Boomer retirement issues relatively unresolved. Many hope that immigration reform can be at least one of the answers in resolving, or at least alleviating the pressures of the pending entitlement and workforce crises. Myers insists in the title of his work that "immigration reform can help America prosper in the face of the baby boomer retirement." n111 He points out that immigration reform may help slow the rapidly rising senior ratio and help pay for the Baby Boomers' retirement, because immigrants tend to be younger and have even higher workforce participation rates than native workers. n112 Though Myers refrains from offering specific suggestions for immigration reform, others have suggested loosening the strict
Myers addresses the entitlement crisis by suggesting that immigrants and, over time, their American school-educated children will be able to help bear [*92] the weight of the Social Security and Medicare burdens. n115 By liberalizing immigration laws, more
requirements for high skill-level visas n113 and withdrawing the harsh restrictions and penalties on "illegal" immigrants. n114 immigrants could legally join the tax-paying American workforce. The tax payments of these immigrants and their children, once they start working, will help pay for the retirement of the Baby
this approach falls short for three reasons. First, the additional tax revenue that immigrants would produce through their employment would fall drastically short of anything resembling an answer to the entitlement crisis. A quick look at the current immigration situation, which permits a significant number of undocumented workers already, reveals how far off an answer is now. In 2005, undocumented immigrants paid $ 9 billion in Social Security and Medicare taxes. n116 Yet, the federal budget outlays for Social Security and Medicare totaled over $ 800 billion. n117 The undocumented workforce makes up five percent of the American workforce, and anywhere from one-half to three-quarters of the undocumented workforce
Boomers. However,
106

contributes to Social Security and Medicare taxes. n118 Yet,
their tax payments amount to only one percent of the Social Security and Medicare expenditures, and this is before any Baby Boomers have retired. A significant number of illegal immigrants already contribute their income to Social Security taxes, and this revenue still comes no where close to meeting the current needs of Social Security, let alone the future needs of the Baby Boomers. Allowing even more immigrants to enter America and the workforce would be a move in the right direction. But such a policy would require an unrealistic number of immigrants to meet the needs of the Baby Boomers, as demonstrated by the current, vast discrepancy between Social Security revenues and expenditures. Second, growing the U.S. workforce by liberalizing immigration laws would require legalizing the "illegal" immigration. Doing so would just complicate the problem both in the short
and long term. Immediately, millions of undocumented workers would be entitled to social benefits to which they currently do not have access. After years of contributing to Social Security
they would eventually be able to collect Social Security and Medicare themselves as they reach retirement, exacerbating the problem. The Social Security system is not a Ponzi scheme to which more and
and Medicare taxes, as many currently do, more people should be added to help pay others off. This leads to the final shortfall: the creation of disincentives. Because immigration reform is pulled into the Social Security debate, even more Americans may be less likely to favor such immigration reform if it means [*93] the formerly "illegal" immigrants will suddenly be entitled to benefits they had previously been precluded from collecting. Those who followed the rules will likely oppose liberalizing the immigration laws in favor of those whose "illegal" activity would be instantly rewarded. Next,
Myers turns to the workforce crisis. Here, he acknowledges the immigrants' share of the growth in the American workforce. "[Immigration] has accounted for a large share of the growth: 23.8% of workforce growth in the 1980s, 39.6% of the 1990s, and 54.2% of 2000-07." n119 Though the numbers look good, it is merely a present day snapshot, and does not offer much suggestion for the pending workforce crisis. The implication that immigrants are capable of filling the Baby Boomer void again suffers three significant shortfalls. First, the number of immigrants necessary to move to the United States to fill the void is likely unavailable. When the Baby Boomers retire, the workforce demand may increase, but the supply of available immigrants to join the workforce will likely be unable to keep pace. Immigration numbers are still increasing, but at
a much lower rate than in previous years. n120 Baby Boomers will be exiting the workforce in much higher numbers. In the last twenty-seven years, the foreign-born workforce increased from
the immigration rate would need to triple before it filled any significant part of the void. The home countries of our current immigrants may not have enough people to support such an expansion of emigration. The second problem with invoking immigration reform to fill the workforce void of retiring Baby Boomers involves an age discrepancy. Immigrant workers tend to be young. n122 The Baby Boomers are retiring from more experienced positions. The current workforce lacks the numbers to fill those spots and inexperienced immigrants would need years of work and time for advancement before they were qualified to step into those roles. The final shortfall involves a discrepancy in skill levels, but should not be confused with experience, or the age discrepancy described above. Skill levels, as indicated by education, differ significantly between native workers and most of the immigrants that have been migrating to the United States for work. The immigrants, who include low-skilled workers in high proportions, are being asked to replace the Baby Boomer generation, which includes a relatively high proportion of highly-skilled workers. Overall average skill level across the U.S.
seven million to twenty-four million. n121 With more than seventy million Baby Boomers settling into retirement over the next twenty-seven years, workforce would fall, and productivity would likely fall along with it. Certainly, the United States could loosen the restrictions and [*94] improve the incentives for attracting more highlyskilled foreign workers. Unfortunately, this sub-market is complicated with "natural" restrictions, such as requiring bar passage for lawyers, passing the boards for doctors and nurses, and other kinds of certifications for highly-skilled jobs. Such restrictions might deter an otherwise qualified candidate from immigrating to the United States. And there is likely little support for waiving many of these self-imposed restrictions. 5. Advantage cps bad- steal aff ground and arent predictable- impossible to predict all possible things that can help econ and gw- time skews round. 6. Links to net ben
107
EB VISAS CP
1. Perm do both 2. Perm do plan then cp 3. Immigrants cant solve the coming economic crises Evan Nolan, JD Candidate Georgetown University Law Center, Fall 2009, Picking Up After The Baby Boomers: Can Immigrants Carry The Load?, 24 Geo. Immigr. L.J. 77, Lexis
The general suggestion recently put forth by social scientists promotes liberalization of immigration laws as a response to resolving the imminent crises of the Baby Boomer retirement. n110 They believe that an influx of immigrants could fill the void in the U.S. workforce left behind by the retiring Baby Boomers and help pick up part of the tab for the Baby Boomers' Social Security
it is essential to understand how small of an impact these immigrants could make on solving the pending workforce and entitlement crises, and I point out where they fall short. Such policy decisions may help resolve the immigration debate, for now, but they still
and Medicare benefits. I recognize that the Baby Boomer crises may provide excellent justification for opening the doors to more liberalized immigration policies. However, leave the Baby Boomer retirement issues relatively unresolved. Many hope that immigration reform can be at least one of the answers in resolving, or at least alleviating the pressures of the pending entitlement and workforce crises. Myers insists in the title of his work that "immigration reform can help America prosper in the face of the baby boomer retirement." n111 He points out that immigration reform may help slow the rapidly rising senior ratio and help pay for the Baby Boomers' retirement, because immigrants tend to be younger and have even higher workforce participation rates than native workers. n112 Though Myers refrains from offering specific suggestions for immigration reform, others have suggested loosening the strict
Myers addresses the entitlement crisis by suggesting that immigrants and, over time, their American school-educated children will be able to help bear [*92] the weight of the Social Security and Medicare burdens. n115 By liberalizing immigration laws, more
requirements for high skill-level visas n113 and withdrawing the harsh restrictions and penalties on "illegal" immigrants. n114 immigrants could legally join the tax-paying American workforce. The tax payments of these immigrants and their children, once they start working, will help pay for the retirement of the Baby
this approach falls short for three reasons. First, the additional tax revenue that immigrants would produce through their employment would fall drastically short of anything resembling an answer to the entitlement crisis. A quick look at the current immigration situation, which permits a significant number of undocumented workers already, reveals how far off an answer is now. In 2005, undocumented immigrants paid $ 9 billion in Social Security and Medicare taxes. n116 Yet, the federal budget outlays for Social Security and Medicare totaled over $ 800 billion. n117 The undocumented workforce makes up five percent of the American workforce, and anywhere from one-half to three-quarters of the undocumented workforce contributes to Social Security and Medicare taxes. n118 Yet, their tax payments amount to only one percent of the Social Security and Medicare expenditures, and this is before any Baby Boomers have retired. A significant number of illegal immigrants already contribute their income to Social Security taxes, and this revenue still comes no where close to meeting the current needs of Social Security, let alone the future needs of the Baby Boomers. Allowing even more immigrants to enter America and the workforce would be a move in the right direction. But such a policy would require an unrealistic number of immigrants to meet the needs of the Baby Boomers, as demonstrated by the current, vast discrepancy between Social Security revenues and expenditures. Second, growing the U.S. workforce by liberalizing immigration laws would require legalizing the "illegal" immigration. Doing so would just complicate the problem both in the short
Boomers. However, and long term. Immediately, millions of undocumented workers would be entitled to social benefits to which they currently do not have access. After years of contributing to Social Security
they would eventually be able to collect Social Security and Medicare themselves as they reach retirement, exacerbating the problem. The Social Security system is not a Ponzi scheme to which more and
and Medicare taxes, as many currently do, more people should be added to help pay others off. This leads to the final shortfall: the creation of disincentives. Because immigration reform is pulled into the Social Security debate, even more Americans may be less likely to favor such immigration reform if it means [*93] the formerly "illegal" immigrants will suddenly be entitled to benefits they had previously been precluded from collecting. Those who followed the rules will likely oppose liberalizing the immigration laws in favor of those whose "illegal" activity would be instantly rewarded. Next,
Myers turns to the workforce crisis. Here, he acknowledges the immigrants' share of the growth in the American workforce. "[Immigration] has accounted for a large share of the growth: 23.8% of workforce growth in the 1980s, 39.6% of the 1990s, and 54.2% of 2000-07." n119 Though the numbers look good, it is merely a present day snapshot, and does not offer much suggestion for the pending workforce crisis. The implication that immigrants are capable of filling the Baby Boomer void again suffers three significant shortfalls. First, the number of immigrants necessary to move to the United States to fill the void is likely unavailable. When the Baby Boomers retire, the workforce demand may increase, but the supply of available immigrants to join the workforce will likely be unable to keep pace. Immigration numbers are still increasing, but at
a much lower rate than in previous years. n120 Baby Boomers will be exiting the workforce in much higher numbers. In the last twenty-seven years, the foreign-born workforce increased from
the immigration rate would need to triple before it filled any significant part of the void. The home countries of our current immigrants may not have enough people to support such an expansion of emigration. The second problem with invoking immigration reform to fill the workforce void of retiring Baby Boomers
seven million to twenty-four million. n121 With more than seventy million Baby Boomers settling into retirement over the next twenty-seven years,
108
involves an age discrepancy. Immigrant workers tend to be young. n122 The Baby Boomers are retiring from more experienced positions. The current workforce lacks the numbers to fill those spots and inexperienced immigrants would need years of work and time for advancement before they were qualified to step into those roles. The final shortfall involves a discrepancy in skill levels, but should not be confused with experience, or the age discrepancy described above. Skill levels, as indicated by education, differ significantly between native workers and most of the immigrants that have been migrating to the United States for work. The immigrants, who include low-skilled workers in high proportions, are being asked to replace the Baby Boomer generation, which includes a relatively high proportion of highly-skilled workers. Overall average skill level across the U.S.
workforce would fall, and productivity would likely fall along with it. Certainly, the United States could loosen the restrictions and [*94] improve the incentives for attracting more highlyskilled foreign workers. Unfortunately, this sub-market is complicated with "natural" restrictions, such as requiring bar passage for lawyers, passing the boards for doctors and nurses, and other kinds of certifications for highly-skilled jobs. Such restrictions might deter an otherwise qualified candidate from immigrating to the United States. And there is likely little support for waiving many of these self-imposed restrictions.
4. no skills shortage Harold Salzman, PHD, Senior Research Associate, the Urban Institute, 11-6-2007, Globalization of R&D and Innovation: Implications for U.S. STEM Workforce and Policy,
Submitted to the Subcommittee on Technology and Innovation of the Committee on Science and Technology, http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/901129_salzman_stem_workforce.pdf
It is generally asserted, without much evidence, that education deficits are responsible for the difficulty employers experience in hiring. It is important to distinguish between the problems an employer may have hiring the people he or she wants and an actual shortage of workers or potential workers. Although there may, in fact, be a labor market shortage, all the evidence cited in various policy reports is entirely individual employer accounts of problems in hiring. The industries most vocal about labor
Wheres the Problem? Hiring Difficulties versus Labor Market Shortages and Perceptions about the Future of Science and Engineering market shortages and the need to import workers may be voicing unrealistic expectations of desired work experience more than deficiencies in the skills or education of a new hire, or just dissatisfaction with the cost of labor. In previous research (Lynn and Salzman 2002), we found that managers in engineering and technology firms do not claim a shortage of applicants, nor do they complain about applicants with poor math and science skills or education. They do often note difficulty in finding workers with desired experience, specific technical skills, or a sufficient number of in the pool.8 , quite often, , as unwittingly illustrated in a recent BusinessWeek (2007) article on labor shortages. In this article, a company president described the current labor shortage as follows: There are certain
brilliant workers
The complaint
appears to be one of unrealistic expectations
. It is difficult to consider an inability to only hire above-average workers a labor market shortage. Complaints also reflect firms dissatisfaction about the need to train new entrants; often at
professions where skills are in such demand that even average or below-average people can get hired issue is whether firms or education institutions should shoulder the costs of training new hires. 5. Advantage cps bad- steal aff ground and arent predictable- impossible to predict all possible things that can help econ and gw- time skews round.
109
Spending DA
110
2AC Spending DA [1/4]

First, Han 12 under the economy contention says that TI is a uniquely powerful form of federal stimulus, this is empirically proven; we have the highest multiplier effect. Even if other forms of spending are inefficient, we are the best form of spending. Second, Stimulus empirically works; this is Bernstein 11 and Woolner 12. The New Deal, ARRA, and Europe prove. ARRA saved 3 million jobs and raised GDP by 3.4% New Deal sparked the largest + longest period of economic growth And current European austerity measures prove that cutting spending only hurts prosperity Third, Clubb 10 and DoT 12 under solvency say how the plan will be funded. Since these are uncommitted funds, they will be inevitably spent, we can only choose where that money goes. Since the plan has a multiplier of 2.8 this is comparatively the best place for that money to go. This also means theres only a risk of a turn.
Fourth, Military Spending is net bad for the economy Barro AND Redlick 9
Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes Robert J. Barro (Professor of Economics at Harvard University, a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and a B.S. in physics from Caltech, honorary dean of the China Economics & Management Academy, Central University of Beijing), Charles J. Redlick (graduate of Harvard University, from which he holds an A.B. in Economics and an A.M in Statistics) NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) Working Paper No. 15369 September 2009 http://www.nber.org/papers/w15369
the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0.4-0.5 contemporaneously and 0.6-0.7 over The estimated multipliers are all significantly less than one and apply for given average marginal income-tax rates. We cannot estimate reliable multipliers for non-defense purchases because of the lack of good instruments. Since the defense-spending multipliers are less than one, greater spending crowds out other components of GDP, mainly investment, but also non-defense government purchases and net exports. Consumer expenditure on non-durables and services has only a small response. In a post-1950 sample, increases in average marginal
For U.S. annual data that include WWII, two years. If the change in defense spending is permanent (gauged by Rameys defense-news variable), the multipliers are higher by 0.1-0.2. income-tax rates (measured by a newly constructed time series) have significantly negative effects on GDP. When interpreted as a tax multiplier, the magnitude is around 1.1. When we hold constant marginal tax rates, we find no statistically significant effects on GDP from changes in federal tax revenue (using the Romer-Romer exogenous federal tax-revenue change as an instrument). In contrast, with revenue held constant, increases in marginal tax rates still have a statistically significant negative effect on GDP. Therefore, tax changes seem to affect GDP
The combination of the estimated spending and tax multipliers implies that balanced-budget multipliers for defense spending are negative .
mainly through substitution effects, rather than wealth effects.
Fifth, the plan is extremely profitable this is our ridership and our Moore 11 evidence.
111

Sixth, the plan has a high enough multiplier to spur economic growth which pays for itself. With a multiplier of 2.8 via our Han evidence and since our Bivens and Edwards 10 evidence indicates that a dollar of GDP growth shrinks deficits by 37 percent. We can derive an equation for deficit reduction from the plan. How much the plan costs times 2.8 times .37; the total multiplier means 103.6% of the plans cost gets paid back. Specifically our Krugman evidence in the economy contention says that HALF of current deficits are because of poor economic growth and that the negative impact of running large debts will only happen in a decade. Means we outweigh the internal link on timeframe. Seventh, it will cost more to try to maintain our current failing infrastructure and build new highways and roads over time.
Eighth , Warming turns the DA Bast et al. 12

Low Hanging Fruit Elizabeth Bast (Managing Director at Oil Change International), Stephen Kretzmann (Executive Director at Oil Change International, has also represented various organizations in Washington and at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Montreal Protocol), Srinivas Krishnaswamy (Vasudha Foundation), Traci Romine (Director at Oil Change International) June 2012 http://priceofoil.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/LowHangingfruit.pdf The figures below provide estimates of various groupings of subsidies, showing a range of existing subsidies from at least US$775 billion to perhaps US$1 trillion or more in 2012. Greater transparency is essential to account for actual aggregate spending as a prerequisite to inform reform efforts. No matter how conservatively the numbers are calculated, eliminating global fossil fuel subsidies represents a tremendous opportunity for increased efficiencies in spending, reductions in global reliance on fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions, and for generating a significant additional source of finance for climate-related activities and other efforts. Some countries may choose to retain some fossil fuel subsidies that they deem efficient. But regardless, both the subsidy and any rationale for not removing it should still be revealed. There are also a number of additional costs of fossil fuels that, depending on how
the United States National Academy of Sciences estimated that externalities (mainly health costs) attributed to the use of fossil fuels are on the order of US$120 Billion annually in the U.S. alone. 32 These costs should be factored into the cost of fossil fuels, however governments have chosen to do just the opposite in subsidizing
subsidies are defined, could be added to this calculation. For instance: Recently, the costs of these dirty fuels. In this way, the worlds governments (and hence their taxpayers) are subsidizing fossil fuel production by not including these health costs in the price of fossil
the costs associated with the impacts of climate change is in the hundreds of billions of dollars annually as well. 33 These costs will only continue to rise if fossil fuel use continues and is
fuels. In addition, subsidized at the current rates.
112

Ninth, Car crashes cost the government billions RMIA 12 (Crash Costs and Statistics, http://www.rmiia.org/auto/traffic_safety/Cost_of_crashes.asp)
The highest price we pay for car crashes is in the loss of human lives, however society also bears the brunt of the many costs associated with motor vehicle accidents. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says in 2010 that the
cost of medical care and productivity losses associated with motor vehicle crash injuries was over $99 billion, or nearly $500, for each licensed driver in the United States. In addition, every 10
Insurance Research Council's (IRC) 2011 Trends in Auto Injury Claims report indicate that insurance claim costs countrywide have recently increased, reversing previous trends of declining or relatively stable costs . Although injury claim severity (the average cost of injury claims) has been increasing steadily in the last several years, much of the increase has been offset by declining claim frequency, which produced relatively stable injury claim costs per insured vehicle. However, recent data indicate that claim frequency, on a countrywide basis, is no longer decreasing. A 2008 report by the Automobile Association of America states that according to the Federal Highway Administration, the per-person cost of traffic fatalities in 2005 dollars is $3.2 million and $68,170 for injuries. AAA estimates the cost of traffic crashes to be $166.7 billion. Costs include medical, emergency services, police services, property damage, lost productivity, and quality of life. Read AAA executive summary (PDF). In 2010, an estimated 32,885 people died in motor vehicle crashes, down 2.9 percent from 2009, according to the U.S.
seconds an American is treated in an emergency department for crash-related injuries, based on data from 2005. New findings from the Department of Transportation. In 2009, 33,808 people died in motor vehicle crashes and an additional 2,217,000 people were injured. Private insurers pay approximately 50% of all motor vehicle crash costs. Individual crash victims pay about 26%, while third parties such as uninvolved motorists delayed in traffic, charities and health care providers pay about 14%. Federal
Overall, those not directly involved in crashes pay for nearly three-quarters of all crash costs, primarily through insurance premiums, taxes and travel delay .
revenues account for 6%, while state and local municipalities pick up about 3%. Crash Type & Driver Behavior In 2010 there were 5,419,000 police-reported motor vehicle traffic crashes, down 1.6 percent from 5,505,000 in 2009. Of total crashes in 2010, 1,542,000 caused
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates about 10 million or more crashes go unreported each year. Alcohol-Related Crashes: In 2009, 10,839 people died in alcohol-impaired crashes, down 7.4% from
injuries and 3,847,000 caused property damage only. 11,711 in 2008. In 2009, alcohol-impaired crash fatalities accounted for 32% of all crash deaths. There is an alcohol-impaired traffic fatality every 48 minutes in the U.S. Drunk Driving and Speeding: In 2010, 10,228 people died in alcohol-impaired crashes, down 4.9 percent from 10,759 in 2009. In 2010, alcohol-impaired crash fatalities accounted for 31 percent of all crash
In 2009, 10,591 lives were lost due to speed-related accidents. Speed-related crashes cost Americans $40.4 billion each year. In 2009, 39% of 15- to 20-year-old male drivers who were involved in fatal crashes were speeding at the time of the crash. Red Light Running: More than 900 people a year die and nearly 2,000 are injured as a result of vehicles running red lights. About half of those deaths are pedestrians and occupants of other vehicles who are hit by red light runners. Fatigue: A study released in November 2010 conducted by the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety using NHTSA data for 1999-2008 found that 16.5%, or about 1 in 6 fatal crashes, involved a drowsy driver. Distracted Driving: A September 2010 study from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) found that in 2010 5,474 people were killed and 448,000 people were injured in motor vehicle crashes involving distracted driving. The percentage of people killed in such crashes rose from 10% of all motor vehicle crash fatalities in 2005 to 16% in 2009. Of those people killed, 995 involved reports of a cellphone as a distraction,
deaths. There is an alcohol-impaired traffic fatality every 51 minutes. Speeding: or 18% of all distracted driving crash fatalities. Cellphone Use: In December 2010 the National Center for Statistics and Analysis of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration released
, 0.9 percent of drivers were text-messaging or visibly manipulating hand-held devices, up from 0.6 percent in 2009. Driver use of hand-held cellphones, measured as the percent of drivers holding phones to their ears while driving, was 5 percent in both 2009 and 2010. Non-Use of Seatbelts=$20 billion. Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Injuries The per-capita costs for each state vary from roughly $600-$1,200 compared to the nationwide average of $819. Smaller, less populated states may have lower overall costs, but they may also have fewer resources to draw on. Differences between
the results of their National Occupant Protection Use Survey (NOPUS), which found that in 2010 states may also result from different reporting practices that result in more or less complete reporting of injuries from state to state.
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Tenth, We solve crashes, High speed rail is insanely safe zero recorded crashes after 40 years of operation in Japan or France CHSRA 8 (state agency planning future high speed rail network, 2008, Safety, California High-Speed Rail Authority, http://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/safety.aspx)
High-speed train systems have been operated safely every day in other parts of the world for many years. The unparalleled safety record for high-speed trains is based upon their actual operating experience. For example, in Japan high-speed train operations began in 1964. In over 44 years of operation, Japanese high-speed trains (the Shinkansen) have carried more than 9 billion passengers without a single train related fatality. In France, their high-speed trains (the TGV) have been operating for 27 years and currently carry more than 100 million passengers a year. Like Japan, the French high-speed train system has never had a single high-speed train related passenger fatality on the completely dedicated new line such as will be built in California. In contrast, the automobile is unquestionably the most used and most dangerous when comparing auto, air and rail modes of transportation. In 2004 alone, there were over 4,000 fatalities and more than 200,000 nonfatal injuries on California highways. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates that deaths and injuries resulting from motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death for persons between the ages of 4 and 33 in the United States. With more and more vehicles on our highways, the potential for automobile accidents increases. Eleventh, plan solves the impact because we directly increase the economy; this is the biggest internal link our NRDC evidence says that failing TI is constraining the economy and also hurting deficits.
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Politics Obama Good DA
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Squo TI thumps the link; multiple transportation policies linked to Obama Adler 12
Analysis: Infrastructure in the Election Ben Adler October 4, 2012 http://archrecord.construction.com/news/2012/10/121004-Analysis-Infrastructure-in-the-Election.asp When it comes to public infrastructure, Americans face a stark policy choice this November. More than any president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Barack
central to his presidency administration encourages

Generating Economic Recovery (
. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, says little about issues like transportation and housing. When he does, it is to suggest cuts to programs and agencies that provide them.
cities and
neighborhoods in half or separated cities from their waterfronts. Wary of repeating those mistakes,
Obama has made investing in infrastructure The current states to spend federal money on projects the Department of Transportation launched
that enhance the public realm. The interstate-highway system often cut has
a competitive grant programTransportation Investment
TIGER
)that rewards integrating housing with new roads or mass transit so as to maximize benefits and minimize environmental degradation. Romneys domestic agenda has essentially one goal: spend less money. He has pledged to balance
the budget while cutting income-tax rates by one-fifth and increasing the defense budget. The only way to do so would be to drastically cut domestic discretionary spending. He refuses to divulge exactly which domestic programs he would cut, or by how much, on the grounds that Democratic criticism of such proposals could hurt his chances of winning. The few specifics he has offeredeliminating funding for National Public Radio and Amtrakare far too small to cover his tax cuts, much less the existing budget deficit. It is safe to assume that most infrastructure programs would be reduced, and possibly abandoned entirely. At one April fundraiser in Palm Beach, Florida, reporters standing outside overheard Romney speculating that he might eliminate the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). That would be a dramatic shift
the Obama administration has used HUD to promote smart growth. The Sustainable Communities program offers grants in developing transit-oriented downtowns The biggest infrastructure investment in the Obama years is already in the past . The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, known as the stimulus bill, contained $35.7 billion in spending for transportation, from highway improvements to constructing high-speed rail lines. An additional $29.2 billion went to other infrastructure investments the president proposed a national infrastructure bank
from , which , through its signature Office of Sustainable Communities, and technical assistance to assist cities and counties housing and revitalizing their . HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan has also sought to improve the appeal and functionality of public housing through the Choice Neighborhoods program. , such as building water and sewer lines and expanding broadband. In 2011, a , which would borrow some federal funds and leverage private investment to provide a steady revenue source to supplement the declining federal highway fund.
follow-up called the American Jobs Act that would have created
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Hagel thumps the link Feldmann 1-7

Chuck Hagel: why Obama is using political capital on Pentagon pick (+video) Linda Feldmann; Staff writer; January 7, 2013 http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2013/0107/Chuck-Hagel-why-Obama-is-using-political-capital-on-Pentagon-pick-video
Chuck Hagel seems an odd pick for secretary of Defense He is a Republican, a point that frustrates Democrats But, to many Republicans, hes a Republican in Name Only owing in part to his opposition to the Iraq war and to his general wariness toward foreign entanglements Hagel has also irritated Democrats with past anti-gay comments And he has riled members of both parties with his criticism of pro-Israel groups and his stance toward Iran, including opposition to some sanctions analysts predict a tough confirmation fight in the Senate to President Obama he is someone worth fighting for
At first blush, former Sen. of Nebraska . who would rather see one of their own in this key Cabinet slot. RINO a . Mr. (for which he has since apologized). . In a way, Mr. Hagel is a man without a party. Many Washington , who announced Hagels selection Monday, . But . Chuck Hagel is the leader that our troops deserve, Mr. Obama said. He is an American patriot. Hagel would be the first enlisted man, and the first Vietnam veteran, to head the Pentagon. He bears the scars and the shrapnel from his military service, Obama noted. The president takes the man without a party argument and turns it on its head, returning to his first-term promise to rise above party politics. \ Chuck represents the bipartisan tradition that we need more of in Washington, Obama said. For his independence and commitment to consensus, he's earned the respect of national
both parties have expressed skepticism. Democrats have a 55-45 majority in the Senate, but Republicans could decide to filibuster which would require 60 votes to overcome. And theres no guarantee that all the Democrats vote with the president Obama had not necessarily settled on Ambassador Rice for State, but her withdrawal left the impression that the presidents choice had been preemptively defeated. The president does not want to look weak again. He also expressed clear personal affection for Hagel the two had traveled together in Iraq and Afghanistan. Hagel is also close to Vice President Biden Hagel has already served the Obama administration in other capacities Now that Hagel has been nominated for the Pentagon, it is crucial that the next stage courtesy calls to key Senate members goes well senior White House officials reached out to key American Jewish interest groups And various Jewish groups put out statements of support for Hagel. However the biggest and most powerful of the pro-Israel groups AIPAC has not put out a statement. Obama just burned some political capital in getting through the fiscal cliff in which he got the Republicans to concede on tax hikes for the wealthy Three more fiscal cliffs loom So it may seem curious that he has chosen to embark on a tough confirmation fight amid all these other battles
security and military leaders, Republicans and Democrats, including me. Some Senate Democrats have endorsed Hagel, and at least three Republican senators have come out against him, while others of had she been nominated? (Her combative style and in particular misstatements about the Sept. 11 attack on the US mission in Benghazi, Libya, riled Republicans.) Administration officials say So it may, in fact, be partly because of Rice that Obama is proceeding with Hagel. in his statement Monday. As Senate colleagues, , a longtime Senate colleague. , including as co-chair of the president's Intelligence Advisory Board. . It is especially imperative that he reassure senators on his commitment to Israel. On Sunday, and sought to address any concerns about Hagel, according to CNN. on Monday, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or so far Other aspects of the timing of Hagels nomination also matter. deadline, Jan. 1 . on spending cuts, the debt ceiling, and on short-term federal spending and he will have less leverage than he did last week. .
. So why is Obama willing to have this fight, after watching one of his top prospects for secretary of State UN Ambassador Susan Rice remove her name from contention over what would have been a contentious confirmation battle,
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Plan is bipartisan Obama reelection, punting, and neccessity Bowman 13

Transport Funding 2: Gridlock on the Congressional Gridiron Robert J. Bowman; SupplyChainBrain; January 02, 2013 http://www.supplychainbrain.com/content/blog s/think-tank/blog/article/transport-funding-2-gridlock-on-the-congressional-gridiron-1/ The holidays are supposed to be a time of joy, but given the state of the economy and other recent events, its hard to feel positive about much of anything right now least of all the outlook for transportation policy reform. So why is Joshua Schank, president and chief executive officer of the Eno Center for Transportation, more optimistic than I have been in a long time about the prospects for funding critical infrastructure improvements? Maybe its because people function best in a crisis. The opportunity for government to make a deal of some kind around the
transportation policy will definitely be on the field the biggest decisions on spending cuts will be put off until this year congressional coaches favor punting over tackling rhetoric and ideology seem to be slowly giving way to reality transportation stands to gain most likely with bipartisan support
deficit is greater than it has been in the last two years by far, says Schank. Both parties agree that this is the priority issue that needs to be tackled. And in the course of that tackling, he adds, . Granted, the political posturing that brought us to the edge of the fiscal cliff is hardly a sign of best intentions. And Schank believes that some of . Apparently . Still, mess. President Obamas reelection means that a solution based partly on higher taxes will be part of any deal. If that happens, says Schank, then .
specifically, the need for some kind of tax increase, coupled with serious spending cuts, to clean up the budget
HSR builds political capital multiple warrants Garrett 11

Garrett, Sierra. This thesis was mentored and overseen by Dr. R. Mark Isaac, Institute for Energy Systems, Economics and Sustainability at Florida State University "Florida High-Speed Rail: An Economic Policy Analysis" (2011). Honors Theses. Paper 13. available at: http://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/uhm/13
Infrastructure projects are also important to politicians as political capital. As John Bartle writes about transportation infrastructure, a completed project is a classic political photo opportunity and a tangible symbol politicians can point to of their work on behalf of their constituents.51 If the project is presented by a local official, but paid for by the federal government instead of the state, the deal seems even sweeter. Plus, local industry, from engineers to bankers and construction workers are employed, lending even more support to the incumbent politician. The increase in these types of projects may even create the need for specialized attorneys and investment professionals to work specifically with the financial instruments and tax codes created for these projects. The resulting political capital from transportation projects can also be focused for specific areas or groups of constituents. The location of the project and its related economic stimulus can bring greater support to a politician even if the money used for the project may have been equally or more beneficial if spent somewhere else. Infrastructure projects are also used nominally to aid lowincome areas or groups of people, under the premise that development and investment will spur economic growth.
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MAP 21 disproves the spending link Freemark 12

(Yonah Master of Science in Transportation from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Bachelor of Arts in Architecture, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yale University with Distinction. Also a freelance journalist who has been published in Planning Magazine; Next American City Magazine; Dissent; The Atlantic Cities; Next American City Online; and The Infrastructurist He created and continues to write for the website The Transport Politic The Transport Politic The Senates Transportation Program March 15th http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/2012/03/15/the-senates-transportation-program/)
Yet the political conditions in which MAP-21 did pass are indicative of the bills importance. We are, after all, in a tightly contested election year in which Republicans have set their sights on the White House and Senate as Democrats eye the House. The bipartisan passage of the legislation though not as close to unanimity as many previous transportation bills suggests that there continues to be relative consensus among both parties that there is a rationale for federal investment in transportation infrastructure. Republicans in the Senate could have easily deflected the bills passage, forcing yet another extension but they chose to cooperate and produce a less-than-ideal bill that will
nonetheless keep people employed and Americas infrastructure in reasonable condition.
Spending is net popular; voters are only know about the spending that helps them, this assumes your link. Powell 11
Why politicians dont cut spending Benjamen Powell; associate professor of economics at Suffolk University, a senior economist with the Beacon Hill Institute, and a research fellow with the Independent Institute, B.S. in economics and finance from the University of Massachusetts at Lowell, M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from George Mason University, author of more than 50 scholarly articles and policy studies, has been reported in more than 100 popular press outlets including The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times. His popular writing has appeared in the Investors Business Daily, the Financial Times (London), the Christian Science Monitor, and many regional outlets. He has appeared on numerous regional and national radio and television shows including, CNN, MSNBC, Showtime, CNBC, and he is a regular guest on Fox Business's Freedom Watch; April 20, 2011 http://www.learnliberty.org/content/public-choice-why-politiciansdont-cut-spending
Lets say you design a policy that takes one penny from a million people, and it gives that $10,000 to one person. Whos going to know about this policy? Are any of the million going to even notice? I bet you the guy who gets $10,000 will. Im Ben Powell, Professor of Economics at Suffolk University. Here we have politicians promising to cut spending, which voters generally want. But thats a dispersed benefit. When they actually pick the specific programs, thats a concentrated cost. Lets do some real back of the envelope calculations here. Theres roughly 300 million people in the
United States. Roughly half of them are registered to vote. Thats 150 million. If half of them show up in any given national election, thats about 75 million. For your vote to change the outcome of an election, it would have to be exactly 37,500,000 to 37,500,000. And you showing up at the polls makes it 37,500,001 to tip the outcome so that you actually get a different result. Whats the likelihood of that happening? Near zero. In fact, economists have figured out youre more likely to die in a car accident on the way to the polling place than to change the
voters are massively ignorant of the policies and their politicians. And it makes But a lot of interest groups are very well informed about policies, not all of the politicians policies, but those policies that specifically affect them. Farmers who get farm subsidies have a big incentive to know which politicians support their subsidies and how much theyre getting. As a result, they not only know about it but give money to the campaigns to help these people get elected to make sure they stay in favor of the favored subsidies. Meanwhile, spread across the food cost of an average American, its a trivial amount of money. So most Americans dont even know or feel this cost. And if they do, they hear some general ad on television that talks about how farmers are good for America, and they feel good about this inefficient policy. These same interest groups that lobbied to get their benefits lobby to keep their benefits. This is the logic of politics, and this is why we end up with more spending than the average voter usually wants.
outcome of a major national election. As a result, sense.
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Winners Win it fires up the base and demoralizes opposition Newsweek 11

Why Winners Win at Jul 11, 2011 edition of Newsweek by Nick Summers, senior writer for Newsweek.
winners simply have certain things that mortals dont fitness doesnt tell the full story. There are more players that have the talent to be the best in the world than there are winners, winners get in their own way less. They interfere with the raw expression of talent less. And to do that, first they win the war against fear, against doubt, against insecuritywhich are no minor victories winning becomes translatable into areas beyond the physical: chess, spelling bees, the corporate world, even combat. neuroscientists, psychologists, and other researchers are beginning to better understand the highly interdisciplinary concept of winning, finding surprising links between brain chemistry, social theory, and even economics, which together give new insight into why some people come out on top again and again dominance is largely determined by testosterone: the more you have, the more likely you are to prevail, and not just on the playing field. Testosterone is desirable in the boardroom, in the courthouse, and in other scenarios that reward risk and bold action. Twenty-five years ago, scientists proved the hormones role in winning streaks: a win gives you a jolt of T, which gives you an edge in your next competition, which gives you more T, and so on, in a virtuous sex-hormone feedback loop.
What is it that separates winners from losers? The pat answer is that, in sports at least, as one might conclude from watching the suddenly indefatigable Novak Djokovic, the Wimbledon and Australian Open champion, who has lost exactly once in his first 49 matches this year. But says Timothy Gallwey, the author of several books about the mental side of tennis, golf, and other pursuits. One way of looking at it is that . Defined that way, You cant go forever down that road, of course. The breadth of our colloquial definition for winning the fact that we use the same word for being handed an Oscar as for successfully prosecuting a warmeans that there is no single gene for victory across all fields, no cerebral on-off switch that turns also-rans into champions. But . One area being disrupted relates to dominance, a decent laboratory stand-in for winning. Scientists have long thought that Last August, though, researchers at the University of Texas and Columbia found that testosterone is helpful only when regulated by small amounts of another hormone called cortisol. Whats more, for those with a lot of cortisol in their blood, high levels of testosterone may actually impede winning. Across Columbias campus, professors at the business school are putting this dominance science into practice, swabbing saliva samples from M.B.A. students to measure both hormones. Each subject is then given a prescription to get the two steroids into ideal balance: eat whole grains and cut out coffee to lower the cortisol; hit the weight room and take vitamin B to raise testosterone. Just before a crucial confrontation, standing in a certain power pose can calibrate the hormones temporarily.
The ideal leader
, says Prof. Paul Ingram,
is calm, but with an urge towards dominance
. (Picture Apple
CEO Steve Jobs onstage, unveiling a blockbuster product.) Its true for both men and women, and in theory it all adds up to winning a contract, winning a promotion, winning the quarter. New science like this illuminates winners of the past. Its a peek inside the bloodstream of perhaps the most thrilling competitor to ever eviscerate his opponents at a pensive task: Bobby Fischer, the chess champion. For Fischer, there was a relentless desire to decimate his opponent, says Liz Garbus, the director of the new documentary Bobby Fischer Against the World. Bobby took delight in how he made his opponent ill. There was something of a sadism to the way he approached it. Before his legendary showdown with Russian archnemesis Boris Spassky in Iceland in 1972, which would determine the worlds No. 1 player, Fischer underwent extensive weight and endurance training; he told a strength coach that he wanted to physically break Spasskys hand the first time they shook. As the match approached, Fischer hemmed and hawed and would not show up, issuing increasingly bizarre demands and exasperating his foe before play had even begun. I dont believe in psychology, Fischer said of the mind games. I believe in good moves. With the world watching, he did eventually arrive in Reykjavik, and with the match tied 2 to 2, Fischer coolly uncorked a move that caught Spassky with his pants down: pawn to c4. Fischer always, always opened with his kings pawn; it was the only configuration Spassky had prepared for, and in this uncharted territory the Russian was helpless. Fischers relentless belligerence had crescendoed to a sublime and understated play, which he followed with further aggression. Spa ssky
What's better than winning? Doing it while someone else loses. test subjects who receive a given reward for a task enjoy it significantly more if other subjects fail or do worse
never recovered. He managed just one win in the next 15 games, and Fischer and his mind and the testosterone-cortisol cocktail within were No. 1 in the world. An economist at the University of Bonn has shown that
a finding that upends traditional economic theories that absolute reward is a persons central motivation. Its one of several new inroads into
the social dynamics of winning yielded by neuroeconomics, a trendy new field that mixes elements of neuroscience, economics, and cognitive psychology to determine why people make the choices they doeven, or especially, the irrational ones. Neuroeconomic studies often involve the
it helps to explain why a win by a No. 1 seed over an unranked challenger is no big deal, while underdog victors like the 1980 U.S. Olympic hockey team are so electrifying.
dopamine system, a part of the brain that is highly involved with rewards and reward anticipation. Dopamine receptors seem to track possibilitiesan arcing tennis ball that may land in or outand how expected or unexpected they are. For fans, made that prevented him from winning gold. , of course.
A similar kind of expectation management occurs in the minds of athletes themselves, says Scott
Huettel, the director of Duke Universitys Center for Neuroeconomic Studies. If you ranked an Olympic events three medalists by happiness, the athlete winning gold obviously comes first. Whats fascinating, Huettel says, is that the bronze medalist is second-most delighted, and the silver finisher is most distraught. Peoples brains are constantly comparing what happened with what could have happened, he says. A bronze medalist might say, Wow, I almost didnt get a medal. Its great to be on the stand! And the silver medalist is just thinking about all the mistakes he
All countries love winning But America, a nation born through victory on the battlefield, has a special relationship with the practice. you all admired the champion marble player, the fastest runner, the toughest boxer, the big-league ballplayers, and the All-American football players Americans love a winner Americans will not tolerate a loser why do we admire winnersand put so much of our own happiness at stake when watching them compete? At some level of the brain, we think we are the guys in the fray. On Nov. 4, 2008, the night of the most recent presidential election Testosterone levels normally drop around that time of night, but not among Obama supporterswhile testosterone plummeted in the men who had voted for John McCain. Vicarious participation, the scientists concluded, mirrors what happens to the principal competitors themselves; the same thing happens in men who watch any other fiercely fought contest Why do Americans love a winner? Because it lets us love ourselves.
When you here, every one of you, were kids, , Gen. George S. Patton once told a gathering of U.S. Army troops in England. , Patton thundered. . The next day was June 6, 1944, D-Day, and these were the men who would invade Normandy. We know where that one goes in the win-loss column. But , neuroscientists at Duke and the University of Michigan gave a group of voters some chewing gum. They collected samples at 8 p.m., as the polls closed, and again at 11:30, as Barack Obama was announced the winner. gum taken from football and basketballand, it follows, , from Andre Agassis greatest matches to Bobby Fischers run at the Russians.
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Political capital slips quickly spending it quickly is key Rajiv Tarigopula January 14, 2011 (http://hpronline.org/online-only/hprgument-blog/president-obamas-political-capital/, Harvard Poitical Review, Rajiv Tarigopula '14 is a
Staff Writer for the Harvard Political Review) the case by virtue of the fact that the with calculated political moves on the part of the Administration such as the appointment of experienced outsider Bill Daley as the new White House Chief of Staff. In fact, it is apparent that
many in the Administration implicitly acknowledge the quickly diminishing
political capital Mr. Obama has; after all, campaign promises and pledges have been neglected in the name of political capital stinginess. For instance, as Bernard Aronson of the Washington Post points out today: Latin American free trade agreement advocacy, which President Obama undertook in last years State of the Union address, was quickly forgotten by the legislative pragmatists, those political capital Scrooges working in the White Houses West Wing all in an ostensible effort to preserve what is left of Obamas waning political capital. In a post 2010-midterm election world, Republicans not only functionally have the numbers to kill President Obamas policymaking agenda, but American public support for the President and his party continues to diminish each day. Distress and discontent with a stagnant economy, flip-flops on campaign promises, uncontrollable and excessive spending, and incoherent foreign policy decisions have decimated Obamas political capital amongst the American populace and especially amongst policymakers. With Republican congressmen vowing to obstruct at great cost, the GOPs confidence and momentum following the midterms, and the surprisingly productive but ultimately ideologically unsatisfactory lame-duck session of Congress have made the situation impossible for President Obama to gain any meaningful political capital through bipartisanship. Quite frankly, through a pragmatic lens, Obama will undoubtedly be unable to yield or generate sufficient political capital to pass his agenda items at Obama] spent the last two years squandering his political capital on initiatives that did not put Americans back to work. With this waste of his 2008 mandate, and the elimination of said mandate in the 2010 midterms, Mr. Obamas political capital account is running dangerously close to being overdrawn. Let us wish for the general success of our President, because with his success rests that of our nation. Without a quick, miraculous
least in the next year. As one prominent liberal critic of the President, Roger Hodge, puts it, [President
infusion of political capital, though, it is difficult to see where the specific Democratic policy agenda can possibly succeed in the 112th Congress. And, with the voters having spoken, maybe thats not such a bad thing after all.
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Extend Adler 10/4 there are multiple transportation policies already linked to Obama TIGER, HUD, Sustainable Communities Program, Stimulus, Highways, HSR, NIB Extend Iqbal 11/08 Boehner is showing hostility to Obama after the election, this triggers the link. Additionally, sequestration is on the top of the docket and triggers the link. Extend Garrett 11 HSR builds political capital it acts as a highly visible and tangible symbol of progress politicians are making. Associated stimulus also rallies support. Extend Freemark 12 MAP 21 disproves the spending link republicans couldve blocked MAP 21 but passed it, this specifically refutes the smokescreen of fiscal conservatism Extend Powell 11 spending is net popular; voters want to cut spending in general but are extremely defensive of the spending that affects them. This means voters dont care about the general increase in spending. Extend Newsweek 11 winning boosts testosterone levels in yourself and supports while dropping it in competitors. Testosterone is key to confidence and dominance which means a victory of Obama over the GOP fires up his base while demoralizing the GOP. If the plan is unpopular then the plan will be seen as an underdog victory which rallies the base even more and humiliates the GOP even more. The bigger they are the harder they fall. This is empirically proven in the 2008 election. Extend Tarigopula 11 support is declining and Obama needs a political victory to reset that.
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Cap and trade failed because Obama didnt spend political capital on it Policymic 12
Gore Hits Obama on Climate Change Inaction Mike Young December 8 http://www.policymic.com/articles/20348/gore-hits-obama-on-climate-change-inaction The 2009 Waxman-Markey climate bill would have setup a national cap-and-trade system to permanently reduce the U.S.'s carbon footprint. California had already passed its own statewide capand-trade system in 2006. Even with that precedent and Democrats controlling of the House and Senate, the bill was perceived as bold and controversial and barely received enough votes to pass in the House. Republicans and conservative Democrats stalled it in the Sentate. During that time, Obama publicly praised the bill but was unwilling to spend very much of his political capital to help get enough votes for the bill to pass.
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No fiscal cliff deal AP 12-13
Boehner: "Fiscal cliff" talks deadlocked over "serious differences" The Associated Press 12/13/2012 http://www.denverpost.com/nationworld/ci_22179972/boehner-fiscal-cliff-talks-deadlocked-overserious-differences WASHINGTON House Speaker John Boehner said Wednesday that "serious differences" remain between him and President Barack Obama in negotiations on averting spending cuts and tax increases that economists say could send the U.S. economy over a "fiscal cliff." Boehner's comments came as top Democrats pushed back on GOP demands for tough steps such as raising the Medicare eligibility age and curbing the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security. Boehner and Obama spoke on the phone Tuesday, a day after Obama offered to reduce his initial demand for $1.6 trillion in higher tax revenue over a decade to $1.4 trillion. But Obama continues to insist that much of the revenue come from raising top tax rates on the wealthy. Boehner countered later Tuesday with another offer. A Democratic official said Boehner's counteroffer included permanent extension of Bush-era tax rates for all taxpayers, including the top 2 percent of earners, the same as his earlier proposal. Boehner offers $800 billion in new revenues through a tax-reform measure next year. Leading lawmakers expressed pessimism that a deal was close, despite increasing angst about a Dec. 31 deadline. "I think it's getting worse, not better ," said House GOP Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.
The Onion mocks your impact scenarios ONN 12

U.S. Headed For Fiscal Cliff Onion News Network 2012 http://www.theonion.com/articles/us-headedfor-fiscal-cliff,30450/ Unless Democrats and Republicans can reach an agreement by Jan. 1, 2013, the United States will go over the so-called fiscal cliff, triggering automatic spending cuts and tax increases that many experts believe could plunge the nation back into recession. Here is what will happen if the government fails to act: National Park Service forced to cut Old Faithful eruptions down to once per week Total breakdown of effective government will turn large parts of the country into an unimaginably hellish libertarian paradise Severe cuts to education spending, if you can fathom that Pentagon will be forced to buy off-brand tanks instead of the more costly name-brand ones Historic bridges such as the Brooklyn and Golden Gate will be folded up and put away for safekeeping The American peoples faith in the ability of Congress to get things done will be damaged At stroke of midnight, every government office, place of work, center of commerce, and piece of infrastructure will simultaneously explode.
Fiscal cliff doesnt kill the economy only .5% of GDP Forbes 12
Think tank: Sequestration-sized DOD cuts doable, and not so bad CHRIS CARROLL November 2, 2012 http://www.stripes.com/blogs/stripes-central/stripes-central-1.8040/think-tank-sequestration-sized-dod-cuts-doable-and-not-so-bad-1.195669 The Fiscal Cliff: Things That Already Happened Lara Hoffmans; Contributor; 10/31/2012 http://www.forbes.com/sites/larahoffmans/2012/10/31/the-fiscal-cliff-things-that-already-happened/
Im not convinced the full brunt of the fiscal cliff would be as bad as widely feared theres no compelling historic evidence tax hikes dictate economic or market direction there are so many more factors at play, including those from the 78% of nonUS world GDP. Theres not one recession in history you can link to an incremental US tax rate move. Bear market neither. And the looming tax rate hikes would still put us at the lower end of historys
But . First, . Sure, confiscating more money from private hands to be inefficiently spent by the government is an incremental economic negative. But
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NEENAH DEBATE NATHAN CHO tax-rate spectrum

. (Which doesnt negate my preference for a lower, flatter tax rate. Mart Laar is my hero.) Setting aside the inherent faultiness of cost predictions for rescinded tax hikesthe AMT patch amounts to about one-third of those projections.
Does anyone really believe 2013 is the year politicians finally decide not to patch the AMT? (If the patch isnt passed, about 36% of taxpayers will pay it come Aprilin other words, the middle class politicians are so desirous of appealing to.) Another factor most miss: In terms of government spending, we already went off the cliff. It happened! And were ok. Headline GDP growth has been rather tepid of late, and falling government spending has actually been a key detractor in 9 of the past 11 quarters (see the graph from Fisher Investments research). But the
The sequester is supposed to cut $65 billion in fiscal-year 2013 that point, US GDP is projected to hit $12.225 trillion sequester might detract -0.53% from headline GDP. Not great! But
private sector has been more than robust enough to keep growth positive. spending detracted -0.43% (all annualized rates). Add the $25 billion cut from expiring jobless benefits (which probably wont happen), and now spending cuts may detract -0.73% from fiscal year 2013 GDP. cliff what it really is: a fiscal plane.
(which ends September 30).
By
($16.34 for full-year 2013). If government projections are right (they wont be) and politicians do nothing (they wont),
the
better than 2011 when falling government spending detracted -0.67% and full-year real GDP grew
1.8%. Not super fast! But not recession. And, much better than Q3 2010 when government spending detracted -0.94%yet headline GDP grew 2.4%. In Q1 2011, government spending detracted -0.60%, while GDP grew 2.0%. In Q4 2011, GDP grew an annualized 4.1% while government
Still not disaster
. Maybe we should call the fiscal
Sequestration doesnt kill the military puts it at 2006 levels Carroll 12

Think tank: Sequestration-sized DOD cuts doable, and not so bad CHRIS CARROLL November 2, 2012 http://www.stripes.com/blogs/stripes-central/stripes-central-1.8040/think-tank-sequestration-sized-dod-cuts-doable-and-not-so-bad-1.195669 WASHINGTON Congress should rein in military pay increases, raise fees on Tricare and reform DODs retirement system to help reduce the national budget deficit while maintaining a strong national defense, according to a report released this week by the Center for American Progress, a left-leaning Washington think tank. The report also suggests that
sequestration
, severe budget cuts scheduled to take effect in early 2013 if Congress fails to act to reduce the federal deficit,
a bad thing
either. Sequestration would cut $600 billion out of the DOD budget on top of nearly $500 billion in reductions to planned fut ure spending that DOD says it can handle.
doesnt have to be such (The) amount of cuts rolls back spending to
to the Pentagon budget
is readily achievable with no sacrifice to our security Cutting more than $1 trillion out of the defense budget over a decade 2006 levels , resulting in a military still dominant in every dimension.
mandated by both parts of the debt deal
if the cuts are done in a thoughtful manner over the next decade, the report said. , the report says,
That runs counter to most thinking in Washington, including that of military leaders
like Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who has used the terms disaster and doomsday to describe the prospect of sequestration. But the report recommend a range of cuts in areas such as nuclear weapons and research, and criticized the military industrial complex for successfully pushing astronomically priced programs even as most Americans say they want less defense spending.
Plan solves the impacts best Prsetowitz 11-14

Rebuilding America Clyde Prestowitz; founder and president of the Economic Strategy Institute; November 14, 2012 http://prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/14/rebuilding_america?wpisrc=obinsite The main fact is that while it's true that U.S. power is ebbing, it's not ebbing for lack of military presence or capability. It's ebbing because the U.S. trade deficit appears to be irreducible and U.S. industry continues to offshore not only production but also R&D and innovation while some of America's greatest educational institutions slash their budgets, even as those of China and most of the rest of Asia expand geometrically. In short, the U.S. is seen in Asia as a declining power because it can't compete, not because it can't fight . Increasing the American military presence in the AsiaPacific region will only cost more money and goad the Chinese to redouble their own military efforts. It won't produce a single new semiconductor or new company or higher American wages. In his post election speeches, the President has frequently talked about doing nation building at home and about rebuilding America. He's right. An economically stronger America wouldn't have to deploy 2,500 marines in the northern reaches of Australia or put 60 percent of its naval ships in the western Pacific. So how do we rebuild America? For starters, we pivot not to Asia, but to America. Look, the Aussies are reducing their own forces. Why are we sending more troops to Australia? China has an economy growing at 7.5 percent while we struggle to hit the 2 percent mark. Why do we want to challenge China to an arms race that is likely to be more costly to us than to them? Remember that U.S. oil does not come across the Pacific. There has been a lot of concern about the off-shoring of U.S. jobs and technology. Yet, the U.S. military presence in Asia promotes a degree of stability that makes the Asian supply chain safe. In effect the Pentagon guarantees corporations who offshore their operations that they have nothing to fear in terms of disruption by doing so. This is like a subsidy for off-shoring . Why is America paying this subsidy? Halting its payment would be a good way to avoid going over the fiscal cliff.
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Politics Iran Diplo DA

Obama wont spend capital on foreign issues Kampeas 11/07
Obamas second term: More of the same, at least until Iran flares Ron Kampeas November 7, 2012 http://www.jta.org/news/article/2012/11/07/3111266/obamas-second-term-more-of-the-same-at-least-until-iran-flares
Jewish federations and other Jewish social welfare organizations have said their immediate focus will be the fiscal cliff
and medical entitlements for the poor and elderly. David Makovsky, a senior analyst with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said . "
-- the effort to head off sequestration, the congressional mandate to slash the budget across the board at the start of 2013. "The fiscal cliff and specifically sequestration is a major concern," Daroff said. "Our concern continues to be
that as the nation and our political leaders continue to assess how to make cuts in spending that those cuts don't fall disproportionately on vulnerable populations that rely upon social service agencies that depend on our funding." Cuts of about 8.5 percent would immediately affect the viability of housing for the elderly, according to officials at B'nai B'rith International, which runs a network of homes. Officials at Jewish federations say the cuts also would curb the meals and transportation for the elderly they provide with assistance from federal programs. Obama and Congress would have had to deal with heading off sequestration in any case, but as a president with a veto-wielding mandate of four more years, he has the leverage to head off deep cuts to programs that his top officials have said remain essential, including food assistance to the poor
Obama's priorities would be domestic While a victory in the second term tends to give you some political capital, capital is still finite Bush's failure in 2005 to reform Social Security, despite his decisive 2004 triumph the president will keep his focus on the economy and health care," and not on major initiatives in the Middle East
," he said, citing George W. . "This suggests to me . More broadly, four more years of Obamacare mean the health care reforms that Obama and a Democratic Congress passed in 2010 will be more difficult to repeal for future GOP administrations. By 2016, American voters will have habituated to mandates guaranteeing health insurance for all,
On these issues -- entitlement programs and federal assistance for the poor -- Obama and Senate Democrats have the backing of an array of Jewish groups led by the Jewish Council for Public Affairs, the communitys public policy umbrella
including for pre-existing conditions and coverage of children by their parents until they reach the age of 26. . Additionally, Jewish advocacy organizations will look to Obama to appoint to the Supreme Court justices likely to uphold the protections favored by much of the Jewish community, including abortion rights, womens equal pay guarantees and gay marriage gains in the states. The exception will be the Orthodox groups, which generally align with conservative Christians on social issues. Sammie Moshenberg, the Washington director for the National Council of Jewish Women, said controversies arising out of Senate races in Indiana and Missouri over abortion rights for victims of rape and interest led to open discussion about women's bodies and their rights. "A lot of times politicians shy away from talking about controversial issues like womens choice, womens issues," she said. "One of the things thats changed is that it sent a message across the board that these are not losing issues. These are issues that women and men are concerned with and head to the polls with." The potential for domestic tension between some Jewish groups and the new Obama administration -- and its Democratic allies who continue to lead the Senate -- lies in Democrats plans to let lapse some of the tax cuts passed by the George W. Bush administration. Senate Democrats in recent years have pressed organized Jewish groups to advocate for raising revenue through tax increases. Some groups have advocated for the increases, but the major social welfare policy umbrella, the Jewish Federations of North America, has resisted in part because tax hikes are controversial among a substantial portion of the federations donor base. Daroff said that Jewish federations would continue to push for keeping the tax deduction rate for charitable giving at 35 percent and resist Obama administration proposals to cut it to 28 percent.
Winning is key to diplomatic capital health care proves NYT 10

Everybody Loves a Winner By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN Published: April 20, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/21/opinion/21friedman.html
In politics and diplomacy, success breeds authority and authority breeds more success When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse the rest of the world was watching our health care debate very closely, waiting to see who would be the strong horse Obama or his opponents Americas enemies and rivals were gauging what the outcome might mean for their own ability to push around an untested U.S. president. It remains to be seen whether, in the long run, America will be made physically healthier by the bills passage. in the short run, Obama definitely was made geopolitically healthier. When others see the president as a winner or as somebody who has real authority in his own house, it absolutely makes a difference Obama has had a divided electorate and was still able to muscle the thing through
. No one ever said it better than Osama bin . Have no illusions, Laden: Democratic and Republican health care ? At every turn in the debate, But, , Defense Secretary Robert Gates said to me in an interview. All you have to do is look at how many minority or weak coalition governments there are around the world who cant deliver something big in their own country, but basically just teeter on the edge, because they cant put together the votes to do anything consequential, because of the divided electorate. President . When President Dmitri Medvedev of Russia spoke by phone with Obama the morning after the health care vote to finalize the New Start nuclear arms reduction treaty he began by saying that before discussing nukes, I want to congratulate you, Mr. President, on the health care vote, an administration official said. That was not just rank flattery. According to an American negotiator, all throughout the arms talks, which paralleled
Winning passage of the health care bill demonstrated that Obama could get something hard passed. leaders of Iran and Venezuela shared the barely disguised Republican hope that health care would fail and, therefore, Obamas whole political agenda would be stalled and, therefore, his presidency enfeebled. He would then be a lame duck and America would be a lame power. Given the time and energy and political capital that was spent failure would have been unilateral disarmament Failure would have badly weakened the president in terms of dealing with others his ability to do various kinds of national security things a weak America is like a world with no health insurance and a lot of pre-existing conditions. Ultimately, what makes a strong president is a strong country a country whose underlying economic prowess,
the health care debate, the Russians kept asking: Can you actually get this ratified by the Senate if an arms deal is cut? Our enemies surely noticed, too. You dont have to be Machiavelli to believe that the for the next three years on health care, , added Gates. . You know, people made fun of Madeleine [Albright] for saying it, but I think she was dead on: most of the rest of the world does see us as the indispensable nation. Indeed, our allies often complain about a world of too much American power, but they are not stupid. They know that a world of too little American power is one they would enjoy even less. They know that who concluded a breakfast by congratulating him on the health care vote and pronouncing: America is back. But is it? While Obamas health care victory prevented a power outage for him, it does not guarantee a power surge.
to the Russians
Gen. James Jones, the presidents national security adviser, told me that he recently met with a key NATO counterpart,
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what the
balance sheet and innovative capacity enable it to generate and project both military power and soft power being an example that others want to emulate What matters most now is how Obama uses the political capital that health cares passage has earned him
political scientist Joe Nye calls .
. I continue to believe that the most important foreign policy
issue America faces today is its ability to successfully engage in nation building nation building at home. Obamas success in passing health care and the bounce it has put in his step will be nothing but a sugar high if we cant get our deficit under control, inspire a new generation of start-ups, upgrade our railroads and Internet and continue to attract the worlds smartest and most energetic immigrants. An effective, self-confident president with a weak country is nothing more than a bluffer. An effective, self-confident president, though, at least increases the odds of us building a stronger country.
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Blackouts DA
Electrical consumption increasing now ECM 10
EIA Projects Growth in U.S. Energy Consumption, Greater Use of Renewables February 2010 http://www.ecmag.com/index.cfm?fa=article&articleID=11176
The Annual Energy Outlook 2010 reference case by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents updated projections for U.S. energy consumption and production through 2035
(AEO2010) become commercially available over roughly the next decade.
. Our projections
show that existing policies that stress energy efficiency and alternative fuels, together with higher energy prices, curb energy consumption growth and shift the energy mix toward renewable fuels, said Richard Newell, EIA administrator. However, assuming no new policies, fossil fuels would still provide about 78 percent of all the energy used in 2035. These reference case projections do not include the effects of potential future policies that have not yet become law and only include technologies that are commercially available or can reasonably be expected to
The report predicts total primary energy consumption to grow by 14 percent between 2008 and 2035 the report predicts total electricity consumption to grow by 1
importantly, , including both purchases from electric power producers and on-site generation,
, as the fossil fuel share of total U.S. energy consumption falls from 84 percent to 78 percent. It predicts biofuels to account for all of the growth, as consumption of petroleum-based liquids will essentially be flat. More
percent per year over the projection period
, from 3,873 billion kilowatt-hours in 2008 to 5,021 billion kilowatt-hours in 2035. According to the report, natural gas and renewable-power plants will account
for the majority of electricity generating-capacity additions. The natural gas share will fall slightly due to the completion of coal plants currently under construction and the addition of new renewable capacity. The report predicts that renewable generation will show the strongest growth between now and 2035, spurred by incentive programs in more than half the states. The renewable share of generation will grow from 9 percent of generation in 2008 to 17 percent of generation in 2035.
High speed trains use less energy than the status quo Garcia 10
High speed, energy consumption and emissions Alberto GARCIA; ICAI Engineer . Specialty Mechanics (ICAI, 1972-1977). PhD in Economics and Business (UAM, 1997-2004). Thesis: "Strategies, economic and organizational structure and design of the operation of passenger rail in the new competitive environment." Merited excellent cum laude Court. Bachelor of Laws (UNED, 1988-1996). PADE (Program Business Management) from IESE (1992-1993). Approved 3 courses for the Bachelor of Science Information (branch Journalism) (1975-1979). Diploma of Advanced Studies (DEA) in the Doctoral Program of Industrial Engineering and Informatics in the ICAI (2010), Professor of Economics and Operation of Passenger Transport in the School of Engineers ICAI (UP Comillas, since 2004). Professor at the University of Railway Systems Master of ICAI (since 2002) of the subjects: Energy Management in Transport and High Speed. Professor in the Master of Railway and Electric Traction Systems at the Technical University of Catalonia (home of Vilanova). Professor usual: - General Land Transport Course in Spanish Railways Foundation (since 1990). Subjects: Optimization Workshop Railway Transportation Company and Energy Management in the Land Transport. - Specialization Course in Railway Engineering, UNED. - Master of Transportation and Logistics at the University of Oviedo. - Master of Railways and Transportation Railways of the Polytechnic University of Valencia; 21 December 2010
the common misconception regarding energy consumption of trains An initial comparison of Renfes Business Units. These Units cover commuter, regional, long distance and high speed trains, with relatively different average speeds from one Unit to another, but with a certain degree of uniformity within each Unit The results confirm the existence of an inverse relationship between speed and energy cost in the case of High Speed trains energy costs account for only 5.25% of
As regards (square rule: the energy consumption the their speed), we have made a comparison between various types of trains that cover a variety of real situations. traction energy use and the income and traffic figures of each one . appear in the following table, which s the percentage of total costs and total income that the represents. Specifically, the Business Unit, whose logically have the highest commercial speed2,
would increase with the square of
, of an economic nature, can be obtained from Renfes 2005 Report1 by extracting the data corresponding to
income3, as opposed to 16.32% in the freight trains or 12.08 % in the commuter trains.
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Practically all the energy used to power the train can be recovered Garcia 10
High speed, energy consumption and emissions Alberto GARCIA; ICAI Engineer . Specialty Mechanics (ICAI, 1972-1977). PhD in Economics and Business (UAM, 1997-2004). Thesis: "Strategies, economic and organizational structure and design of the operation of passenger rail in the new competitive environment." Merited excellent cum laude Court. Bachelor of Laws (UNED, 1988-1996). PADE (Program Business Management) from IESE (1992-1993). Approved 3 courses for the Bachelor of Science Information (branch Journalism) (1975-1979). Diploma of Advanced Studies (DEA) in the Doctoral Program of Industrial Engineering and Informatics in the ICAI (2010), Professor of Economics and Operation of Passenger Transport in the School of Engineers ICAI (UP Comillas, since 2004). Professor at the University of Railway Systems Master of ICAI (since 2002) of the subjects: Energy Management in Transport and High Speed. Professor in the Master of Railway and Electric Traction Systems at the Technical University of Catalonia (home of Vilanova). Professor usual: - General Land Transport Course in Spanish Railways Foundation (since 1990). Subjects: Optimization Workshop Railway Transportation Company and Energy Management in the Land Transport. - Specialization Course in Railway Engineering, UNED. - Master of Transportation and Logistics at the University of Oviedo. - Master of Railways and Transportation Railways of the Polytechnic University of Valencia; 21 December 2010
If the train decelerates without braking, it can use all) of the accumulated kinetic and potential energy to overcome the rolling resistance; the energy consumed is therefore reduced, since the amount of energy dissipated by the brake is reduced
or descends the gradients some (or multiplies the energy lost during the braking process. ( ) condecono frepar frepend Ef = k E + E , where 0 1 condecon k . At low speeds, if the train coasts instead of braking, a lot of time is lost and yet little energy is saved. Therefore,
. As a result, however, the train loses time, which means that over the whole route it uses more time than
the necessary minimum. This is what is called economical driving (usually achieved by coasting): the longer the journey time, the lower the energy consumption9. In practice, the effect of economical driving can be modelled as a coefficient, equal to or less than 1, which
If coasting occurs at high speeds, little time is lost, yet the energy saving is high economical driving can save more energy at high speeds, and therefore the high speed train can cover a considerable part of the route by coasting The economical driving programme reduced energy consumption by 8% while at the same time increasing the average speed If the train has a regenerative brake, some of the energy dissipated by the brake can be recovered to be returned to the public power network
is 160 km/h, with the same margin, values of around 0.8 to 0.9 can be obtained for Kcondecon. on the Madrid-Seville AVE minutes without consuming a single kilowatt-hour), while the Madrid-Toledo Avant train can do the same over 68% of the route, losing just 4 minutes of its minimum running time. Energy recovered by the regenerative brake : either to be used by other trains, or . Only a part of the energy dissipated by the brake is converted into electricity by the regenerative brake (should it exist), as it is always necessary to use, to a greater or maximum speed on the line, in km/h): 2 max 502 V k NOgeneracion = From this formula we can deduce that for a maximum speed of 100 km/h, 75% of the
(or freewheeling) without losing much time. On a typical high speed line, a time margin of 6% (minimum recommended by th e UIC) permits Kcondecon values of around 0.4 to 0.6, whereas on a line where the maximum speed
. A high speed train can coast along 64% of the Madrid-Seville route (losing 7
lesser extent, the friction brakes. Friction brakes are used mainly at low speeds (for example, between 50 km/h and the stop). Therefore, the part of the energy dissipated by the brake that is converted into electricity is greater at high speed. The energy dissipated by the brake that is not regenerated is: frnoreg NOgeneracion condecono ( frepar frepend ) E = k k E + E The value of the NOgeneracin (kNOgenreracin) coefficient is 1 if the train does not have a regenerative brake. If it does, the following can be a ssumed, approximately (Vmx. being the trains
converted into potentially usable electricity rises to 97% .
, whereas
energy dissipated by the brake is if the maximum speed is 300 km/h, this percentage
The actual degree of utilization of the braking energy converted into electricity by other trains depends on the length of the electrical sections (the longer they are, the greater the possibility of recovery), and on the traffic density (the
higher the density, the more likely it is that when one train is generating energy with the brake, there is another one tha t needs it for an acceleration process). In practice, it can be modelled as a coefficient kaprovereg ( ) aprovfrenado aprovecregen NOgeneracin condecono frepar frepend E = k (1 k ) k E + E At high speed, alternating current electrification allows the energy produced by the regenerative brake to be returned to the public network, and (although the railway company is not paid for the energy returned to the network) from the energy efficiency point of view, it can be regarded as utilized energy. Therefore, on AC lines, it can be assumed that Kaprovregen=1, whereas with direct current, if there are no devices for storing energy or returning it to the network, it can reach values of 0.5 to 0.9, depending on the traffic
The high speed train has to dissipate less kinetic and potential energy, as it makes fewer stops and can descend downgrades at higher speeds. Of the energy it has to dissipate, it can lose a smaller part of it in the brake (for the same journey time), as it can perform economic driving more efficiently. Of the energy that, in spite of this, it dissipates in the brake, it can convert a larger part of it into electricity (as the electric brake is more usable at high speeds). The energy thus converted into electricity can be utilized to a greater degree; as it can be returned to the power network, the degree of utilization is practically 100%
density and the length of the electrical sections. In short, and with regard to the utilization of potential and kinetic energy, the above can be summarised as follows: .
No link rail and national grids arent interoperable ABB 12

Powering the worlds high-speed rail Networks ABB; multinational corporation headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, operating in robotics and mainly in the power and automation technology areas; http://www04.abb.com/global/seitp/seitp202.nsf/0/038fce86fdc0a3bcc12578730053b5a3/$file/High-speed+rail+art.pdf
Electric railways run their own high voltage power grids, and some even operate their own dedicated power plants For historical reasons, there are often significant differences between rail electrification networks and national power grids. rail networks use direct current (DC) rather than the alternating current (AC) of the grid; others operate at a different frequency or use only single phase compared to the three-phase power of the grid
require huge amounts of energy. Many rail network operators . Few railways are totally autonomous: they have to exchange power with the high voltage grid. Some .
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Warming will triple the probability of blackouts Speer 12

Global Warming Endangers Energy Production in the United States and Europe MATTHEW SPEER; founder of iSustainableEarth; JUNE 11TH, 2012 http://globalwarmingisreal.com/2012/06/11/global-warming-endangers-energy-production-in-the-united-states-and-europe/
rising water temperatures and reduced river flow caused by global warming is lowering the energy output of thermoelectric power plants, such as coal-fired power plants, that require constant supplies of water for cooling purposes Extreme drops in power generation, blackouts and full or partial shutdowns of thermoelectric power plants are expected to triple Reduced flow in rivers and ever increasing water temperatures decrease the cooling capabilities that nuclear and coal-fired power plants have come to rely on In the summer of 2011, the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant in Alabama had to go offline on more than one occasion because the Tennessee River water was too hot to provide any cooling capabilities. The study finds this was not an isolated event, in fact the findings predict that energy efficiency or power production in the U.S. will decrease 16 percent and even higher due to a reduction in cooling water
The energy supplies for the United States and Europe are at risk, thanks to increasing complications attributed to climate change. In an ironic twist of fate, the power plants help create is now impacting their ability to perform. Climate Change Causing Blackouts over the next 50 years, according to a report in Nature Climate Change. is for our existing power grid. The co-author of the study, Dennis Lettenmaier, a University of Washington professor of civil and environmental engineering, said t his study suggests that our reliance on thermal cooling is something that were going to have to revisit. just 4 percent to in Europe between 2031 and 2060.
. In other words, the problem that some of these
. While this study shines a light on the needs for better water conservation methods, it also points out how significant of a weakness thermal cooling
Warming empirically causes cascading blackouts Walsh 12

The Power Grid: From Rickety to Resilient Bryan Walsh; senior writer for TIME magazine, covering energy and the environment; July 17, 2012 http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2119663,00.html#ixzz2Ce1PYcTF
high temperatures prompt people to crank up the fans and the air conditioning The electricity those appliances consumed put unusually high demands on the transmission grid, forcing power plants to work overtime summer heat also caused local power lines to expand and physically sag, which brought them into contact with nearby trees. Sparks ensued, and the resulting short circuit shut down power
August 14, 2003 was a brutally hot day in much of the northeastern U.S. The . ed in cities like Pittsburgh and New York . The in northern Ohio locally. An alarm should have gone off at a local utility, leading the operator to reroute the flow of power around the affected area until a repair crew could be dispatched to fix the downed wires. But that didn't happen. The alarm never sounded, and utilities across the regional grid kept sending power through the weakened area, stressing the transmission lines further. Within two hours of the short circuit, all of
triggering a chain reaction that led other regional grids to fail before operators could do anything to respond. The resulting blackout the biggest in American history affected 55 million people in the northeastern U.S. and Canada. Darkness fell across Times Square because the aging snarl of wires and transformers that is the U.S. electrical grid couldn't handle a hot day and a few overgrown trees.
the power lines in Ohio cut out,
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Wage Inflation DA
Wage inflation is failing to keep pace with inflation Salisbury 11/08
Inflation means all workers have seen wage falls since 2007 Ben Salisbury Thursday, 08 November 2012 http://www.myfinances.co.uk/pensions/2012/11/08/minimum-wage-has-helped-to-reduce-payinequality-since-1999 A new report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that the average full-time employee earned 62 per cent more in 2011 than they did in 1986 after taking into account the consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation. However, since the credit crunch of 2007, all employees have suffered a fall in their real-term earnings as low wage increases have failed to keep pace with relatively high inflation. The ONS said: Everyone from the lowest to the highest earners had real wage falls since the economic downturn.
Wage inflation is key to economic growth Foroohar 11/07

The Risks of Reviving A Revived Economy Rana Foroohar; TIMEs assistant managing editor in charge of economics and business; Nov. 07, 2012 http://swampland.time.com/2012/11/07/the-risks-of-reviving-a-revived-economy/#ixzz2Bwh3z5Ty Some cite Sweden as a model. Four years after a similar financial crisis began in 1992, it started slashing public debt, erasing its entire deficit by 1998. Sweden subsequently boomed. The difference, according to the McKinsey Global Institute, which has studied several decades of sovereign debt crises, is that Sweden was already growing strongly3.5% annuallywhen it started rolling back public stimulus and focusing on debt reduction. Companies and consumers were ready to pick up the slack. Thats not yet so in the U.S. Companies facing economic uncertainty are unlikely to part with the $2 trillion under their mattresses regardless of debt or tax rates. While unemployment has ticked down, the average annual earnings growth of U.S. workers fell to a postwar low in October. You really cant have a sustainable recovery in an economy thats 70% fueled by consumer spending when 90% of the income gains since the recovery began have accrued to 1% of the population. Thats why I think the key to really solving the growth puzzle is tackling inequality. Its been labeled a social issue. But there is growing reason to think of it as an economic one. International Monetary Fund research shows that countries with bigger wealth gaps tend to have shorter periods of high growth and more volatile economies. Thats in part because they try to mask inequality by expanding consumer credit, which leads to debt bubbles and financial crises . (Sound familiar?) IMF policy wonks actually believe that reducing inequality is as important as, say, free trade in terms of fostering economic growth.
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Economic inequality causes businesses to retreat from America Acemoglu AND Robinson 12
World's next technology leader will be US, not China if America can shape up Daron Acemoglu; Killian Professor of Economics at MIT. In 2005 he received the John Bates Clark Medal awarded to economists under forty judged to have made the most significant contribution to economic thought and knowledge; and James A. Robinson; political scientist and an economist, is the David Florence Professor of Government at Harvard University. A world-renowned expert on Latin America and Africa, he is currently conducting research in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sierra Leone, Haiti and in Colombia where he has taught for many years during the summer at the University of the Andes in Bogot.; co-authors of Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. April 19, 2012 http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Global-Viewpoint/2012/0419/World-s-next-technologyleader-will-be-US-not-China-if-America-can-shape-up The threat for the US is exactly the flip side of the opportunity for China. US inclusive institutions are in decline, and the danger that the US could follow other societies in history such as the Venetian Republic in the 13th century that have seen their inclusive institutions dismantled and their economic success undermined is a real one. US society has been undergoing profound changes over the last four decades. The huge rise in economic inequality, brought to the headlines partly by the Occupy Wall Street movement, is both an important aspect of these changes and also a warning sign. The problem is that economic inequality often comes bundled with political inequality. Those with great wealth and easy access to the politicians will inevitably try to increase their political power at the expense of the rest of society. This sort of hijacking of politics is a surefire way of undermining inclusive political institutions, and is already under way in the US. There is also a vicious circle here: Economic inequality is increasing political inequality, and those increasing their political power will use this to tilt the playing field further and gain a greater economic advantage. This will not only take the form of getting more tax breaks and government subsidies for their businesses, but also by blocking more innovative rivals and, directly or indirectly, undermining the opportunities that the rest of society has for acquiring skills, taking risks, and innovating.
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LUST DA
LUST funding is nearly gone Scribner 12
The Awful Truth about the Highway Bills MARC SCRIBNER; fellow in Land-use and Transportation Studies at the Competitive Enterprise Institute; APRIL 26, 2012 http://www.openmarket.org/2012/04/26/the-awful-truth-about-the-highway-bills/ The Senate passed the obnoxiously titled Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21) bill on March 14 in a 74-22 vote. While ostensibly passed in a bipartisan fashion, it soon became clear most of the Senate Republicans who voted for MAP-21s passage had no clue what was in the bill and how it would be paid for. Gary Hoitsma, a transportation analyst who previously served as a senior aide to Senate Environment and Public Works Committee ranking member James Inhofe (R-Okla.), has done yeomans work in his analysis of MAP-21s funding provisions. Despite the bipartisan rhetoric enabled by Sen. Inhofe who admits he is a fiscal conservative on everything other than infrastructure and national defense Hoitsmas analysis shines a much-needed light on some of the jaw-dropping fiscal gimmickry contained in MAP-21. For instance, rather than attempting to fix the revenue-outlay imbalance that is driving the federal Highway Trust Fund into insolvency, the two-year, $109-billion MAP-21 relies on a series of one-shot revenue transfers that, once used, cannot be relied upon again. This includes a multi-billion dollar general revenue transfer, redirecting revenue from tariffs on imported foreign automobiles, and nearly emptying the Leaking Underground Storage Tank Trust Fund of its $3.6 billion.
Highway Trust Fund is bankrupt Holeywell 12

CBO: Highway Trust Fund Account Goes Broke in 2013 RYAN HOLEYWELL JANUARY 31, 2012 http://www.governing.com/blogs/fedwatch/cbo-highway-trust-fund-account-goes-broke-in-2013.html The Highway Trust Fund -- the primary account used to fund federal spending on roads, highways and transit -- is set to go broke over the course of the next two years, according to the Congressional Budget Office's newest forecast released today. CBO explains the trust fund's challenges succinctly: Although the number of miles that people drive is projected to increase as the economy grows, CBO expects the effect of that increase on fuel use to be largely offset by improvements in the fuel economy of vehicles, mainly because of increases in the governments fuel economy standards. The trust fund actually has two accounts: one that pays for highways and highway programs, and one that pays for transit. The new report finds that sometime during 2013, the highway account will no longer be able to meet its obligations. The same will happen to the transit account in 2014. The current federal gas tax of 18.4 cents per gallon of gasoline isn't tied to inflation and hasn't been increased since 1993. As a result, its purchasing power has declined dramatically. Yet members of Congress on both sides of the aisle, as well as President Obama, have opposed any proposals to increase the gas tax to help shore up the fund.
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No Link Plan funding would come from the military and the stimulus, any extra would come from deficits Link Turn - Plan decreases spending on highways and airports Dutzik et al 10 under solvency says that status quo congestion is putting enormous stresses which lead to skyrocketing maintenance and repair costs on highways and airports. Plan alleviates congestion and solves this. This is a link turn Plan solves the impact we reduce emissions by 20% and this solves warming.
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Freight DA
Freight rail down annual statistics Bowen 12
U.S. intermodal powers on in latest week Douglas John Bowen; managing editor of RAILWAY AGE. He also served as Editor of Intermodal Age from 1989 to 1991, and has held various positions at Inbound Logistics magazine, High Speed Transport News, The Journal of Commerce, and CNN/Money. Bowen began his journalism career at the Asbury Park Press, a New Jersey daily newspaper. A graduate of Rutgers University, Bowen resides in Hoboken, N.J. He served as president of the New Jersey Association of Railroad Passengers (NJ-ARP) from 1987 to 2000 and again from 2004 to 2010, and remains a director on the NJ-ARP board; Thursday, October 11, 2012 http://www.railwayage.com/index.php/freight/class-i/us-intermodal-maintains-starstatus-in-latest-week.html#.UJna5MXA-So
U.S. freight carload volume for the week ending Oct. 6, 2012 notched another decline, down 6.3% from the comparable week in 2011, the Association of American Railroads reported Thursday. But U.S. intermodal continued its counterbalancing act, with
volume up 3.8% during the week compared with a year ago. AAR said 10 of the 20 carload commodity groups it measures posted increases compared with the same week in 2011, led by petroleum products, up 46.1%, farm products excluding grain, up 30%, and lumber and wood products, up 11.2%. Groups showing declines compared with 2011 included coal, down 18.1%, iron and steel scrap, down 17.9%, and waste and nonferrous scrap, down 11.5%. Canadian freight carload volume also fell, but modestly, down 0.2% for the week ending Oct. 6 measured against the comparable week of a year ago. Canadian intermodal volume rose a robust 11.3%. Mexican freight carload volume advanced 3.4% compared with a year ago, while Mexican
Combined North American freight carload volume for the first 40 weeks of 2012 on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian, and Mexican railroads totaled was down 1.5% compared with the same point last year, while combined North American intermodal volume was up 4.7%.
intermodal gained 17.5%.
No link wont use same tracks Maurillo 11

High-Speed Rail in the US: Will It Be a More Attractive Terror Target than Inter-city Rail? Donna R. Maurillo; Director of Communications and Technology Transfer at the Mineta Transportation Institute, held executive and management positions with Silicon Valley technology companies and public relations agencies. For 20 years, operated a successful corporate communications consulting business; 2011 http://transweb.sjsu.edu/MTIportal/education/alumni/capstones/terror-targets-high-speed-rail-vs-intercity-rail-Maurillo.pdf
new tracks will be used exclusively by HSR train sets because of weight and other factors that make other train sets unsuitable for these rails including freight
Note that, although true HSR eventually will be integrated into these corridors, the seamless ribbon , and inter-city passenger. This will be another factor making high-speed trains more efficient.
Plan boosts the freight industry Clubb 10

Oliver Clubb is a retired Syracuse University political science professor and long-time environmental activist. He is co-chair of the Syracuse, New York-based Global Warming Action Network. From the Book Global Warming Solutions specifically from the chapter On High-Speed Trains 2010 http://globalwarmingsolutionsbook.org/read/highspeedtrains.html
a fully loaded passenger train gets the equivalent of 2,000 miles a gallon per mile. By contrast, the most efficient airliners get only 30 miles a gallon per passenger mile, emitting 67 times greater amounts of greenhouse gas. Climate protection is a compelling reason but not the only one for a major upgrade of
My friend Larry Kinney, a Boulder-based energy expert, tells me that passenger-
America's
funding-starved passenger
rail system . Take South Korea, for example, which inaugurated high-speed rail service in 2004. It did so, as James Brooke reported
in the New York Times, "with sleek new French-designed trains hitting 185 miles an hour. The new service is already reworking the face of this nation. On the world stage, the bullet trains
A crucial part of this vision is the highspeed train. High-speed trains could triple passenger traffic on the nation's main line, between *Pusan+ and Seoul, to half a million passengers daily. And with the old tracks freed of passenger trains, rail freight to and from this port [Pusan] could increase sevenfold, to three million containers a year." If existing tracks in various regions of the United States were similarly freed of passenger trains, bringing a significant increase in rail freight haulage, it would likely produce very large additional reductions in greenhouse gas
herald South Korea's coming of age. South Korea's goal is to become a business and logistics hub for northeastern Asia.
emissions
and energy costsnot to mention significant reductions in traffic congestion on US highways.
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Federalism DA
136
Urban Sprawl DA
137
2AC
Non-U - Urban sprawl already high suburban expansion 10x faster and growing Ortiz 4, Franscesa Professor of Law and the Presidential Research Professor for South Texas College of Law, J.D. 1989, Harvard Law School, Council Member of both the
Animal Law Section and the Environmental Law Section of the Houston Bar Association, January 2004 (Smart Growth and Innovative Design: An Analysis of the New Community, ENVIRONMENTAL LAW REPORTER News and Analysis, Issue 34, via Lexis) sbucci This process of suburban growth, commonly referred to as
urban sprawl, n20 has become a way of life around major United States cities. Although the initial outward move from a city's central core may have been based mostly on population growth, affluence, and transportation accessibility, sprawled growth today is based la,mrgely on highway policy and unwise land use practices. n21 Suburban growth has rapidly escalated to a point where suburban inhabitants now make up over one-half of metropolitan populations. n22 Whereas new suburban rings surrounding a city used to take years to complete, suburban rings now seem to develop annually. n23 Indeed, one commentator notes that suburban growth has grown 10 times faster than the populations of urban centers, n24 and continued growth is expected for at least the next 25 years. n25
Link Turn Increasing public transit will actually decrease the effects of urban sprawl Maya, 5/21/08, Michael M. Maya, New York University School of Law,
http://www.law.nyu.edu/ecm_dlv3/groups/public/@nyu_law_website__journals__law_review/documents/documents/ecm_pro_058032.pdf, Transportation Planning and the Prevention of Urban Sprawl The regulatory schemes enacted by statewide reform acts have varied. At some point, however, policymakers have usually been compelled to consider the effects of transportation planning and policy on development patterns.14 The reasons are not hard to understand. As early as the 1970s, scholars demonstrated that low-density development could not
The result, in sprawling areas, is greater dependence on roads and highways, which themselves end up becoming heavily congested with private automobiles. This congestion creates demand for new roads, which then lead to even more sprawl.17 Without these roads and highways, the thinking goes, it may be possible to curtail
support public transportation.15 Moreover, low-density development leads to residents traveling more than those who live in high-density areas.16 sprawl.18 Although it would be unreasonable to dismantle roads where they already exist, this Note contends that steps can be taken to prevent new road construction, especially where development has not yet occurred. In more general terms,
careful planning of transportation infrastructure may enable local governments to determine where development will take place, thereby concentrating growth in certain areas while protecting other areas from new construction. This is what I will call the transportation planning side of the sprawl prevention equation. The other side of the equation deals with the converse situation: Instead of roads preceding development, sometimes development precedes roads.19 19 This makes logical sense: If development never preceded roads, residents would never demand the construction of new transportation infrastructure to serve previously built-up areas or to replace (or expand) already congested arteries. Yet this happens on a regular basis. See, e.g., Rick Fink, Jr., The Widening of I-93, the Granite State Outgrows a Major Corridor,
BUS. NH MAG., Jan. 1, 2003, at 34 (discussing proposal to widen Interstate 93 in New Hampshire in order to make travel safer and less congested and observing that [t]he state has outgrown a stretch of the highway that continues to see rising traffic counts). This situation is no less pernicious for states looking to prevent sprawl. If a local government allows housing to be built in a place that is underserved by existing transportation infrastructure, sooner or later political pressure will mount to provide residents of the newly developed
In sprawling areas, such access will most likely be provided in the form of new roads, not public transportation. These roads, however, will only create more traffic and lead to more sprawling development as they become just as congested as the other roads in the area.20A potential response to this dilemma is to ensure that development only occurs once adequate transportation infrastructure exists or will soon be constructed.21 I will call this the concurrency side of the sprawl-prevention equation. If transportation planning determines where development will occur via the location of new roads, concurrency determines when development will occur by respecting the capacity of existing roads. 20 New roads allow residents drawn by lower
area with better access to their homes or businesses. housing prices to move farther and farther from the urban core, thereby increasing the total amount of driving in a given metropolitan area. See ROBERT CERVERO, SUBURBAN GRIDLOCK 910 (1986) (noting jump in average commuting distances and suggesting that as American cities have sprawled, so have trip patterns). The roads themselves will soon become congested with drivers who used to travel on other roads, at other times, or by mass transit. DOWNS, supra note 3, at 2730. The result will be demand for yet more roads, which will in turn lead to yet more sprawl.
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1AR
Non-U Even though spawl has slowed in the squo, thats primarily a result of the recession; our evidence is more predictive of future urban sprawl; the next ten years will explode with sprawl thats our Ortiz evidence; now is just a blip in the overall trend. Link Turn Our Maya 8 evidence assumes their warrants; it says that because of the rising demand for new avenues of transportation, either roads or public transportation will be constructed to compensate. Their evidence says that the development of roads and automobiles will lead to urban sprawl. We solve that by solving for that with the creation of alternative transportation programs. Solve the Impact Warming We solve the impact better on specificity, our Dutzik et al. 10 evidence says that HSR emits 93% less emissions and solves oil dependency and fuel costs.
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Auto Trade Off DA

Turn - Instability of the Auto Market and a lack of supply ensure cuts bad for the economy NASDAQ 12, (NASDAQ, June 2012, Analyst Interviews, http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-06/auto-industry-stock-outlook-june-2012-zacks-analystinterviews.aspx?storyid=151289 Auto Industry Stock Outlook, KA)
developing the supplier networks remains one of the greatest challenges they face. Existing suppliers to automakers often lack the financial background to expand capacity in new markets. On the other hand, auto market suppliers are sensitive to technology transfers to local third parties, which may result in new and lower-cost competitors. Since 1999, more than 20 of the largest global auto parts suppliers have filed for bankruptcy. The financial condition of the majority of auto market suppliers continues to deteriorate, resulting from a historically weak demand and higher dependence on automakers. According to the Original Equipment Suppliers Association, 12% of the auto industry suppliers do not have sufficient working capital to support a 10%25% expansion in production. Thus, despite the governments sizable investment in the automakers, it is likely that there will be auto market suppliers who are unable to restart operations due to working capital shortfalls even as automaker production resumes. Higher dependence on automakers makes the auto market suppliers vulnerable to several maladies, primarily pricing pressure and production cuts. Pricing pressure from
Although automakers continue to focus on shifting their production facilities to new regions driven by cost and demand factors, automakers is constricting auto market suppliers margins. On the other hand, production cuts by automakers driven by frequent market adjustments are negatively affecting their operations. Some of the auto industry suppliers who have a high reliance on a few automakers such as General Motors, Ford, Chrysler and Volkswagen include American Axle and Manufacturing (NYSE:AXL), ArvinMeritor Inc. (NYSE:ARM), Goodyear Tire and Rubber (NYSE:GT), Magna International (NYSE:MGA), Superior Industries (NYSE:SUP), Tenneco Inc. (NYSE:TEN) and TRW Automotive (NYSE:TRW).
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Airline Trade Off DA

Turn Econ influences Air Industry, not the other way around Wall Street Journal, June 5 [ Global Airlines Fly Into 'Storm' http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303918204577448033877417726.html] TJ
Higher fuel costs and a treacherous economic environment are weighing on global airlines, including Qantas and
Emirates Airline. Asia's carriers last year earned 47% less in net profit than in 2010, at US$4.8 billion, according to the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. Last month, Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. said it was considering whether to accelerate the retirement of aging aircraft after it warned of "disappointing" first-half financial results. Singapore Airlines Ltd. and Korean Airlines recently
Even fast-growing Middle East airlines, once perceived to be immune from global trends, have started to voice concern about business conditions. "It's a perfect storm of adversity now facing airlines," Tim Clark, president of Dubai-based Emirates Airline, said in an interview. "The euro is going
posted quarterly losses, forcing both to rethink schedules and adjust aircraft deployment to boost profits. south, the pound is going south, fuel costs are still too high." Amid those challenges, though, Etihad Airways of Abu Dhabi said Tuesday it has bought a nearly 4% stake in Qantas rival Virgin Australia Ltd. VAH.AU 0.00% Shares in Virgin Australia closed at 41 Australian cents (40 U.S. cents) each Monday, leaving the company with a market capitalization of 906.2 million Australian dollars (US$881.5 million). That gives an implied valuation of A$35.9 million on Etihad's 3.96% stake. A spokesman for Etihad said it would like to raise its holding to at least 10%. Etihad
many global carriers could be forced to retrench. Last month, Emirates said its latest fiscal-year net profit fell 72% after the company took a US$1.6 billion hit from high fuel costs. Mr. Clark added Tuesday that the price of Brent crude oil will need to drop to between US$80 and US$90 a barrel, from about US$100, to revive margins.
operates 24 flights a week between Abu Dhabi in the Persian Gulf and Australia. Mr. Clark of Emirates cautioned that
This guarantees that a large air industry creates a massive bubble which will cause greater economic devastation
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Oil DA
Prices dropping now, economic downturn elsewhere will make a price drops inevitable Money Marketing July 5, 2012 Scraping the barrel? SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 22
With oil prices dropping, Joanne Ellul explores if it is a good time to invest
The spot price of Brent oil fell from a peak of just over $126 a barrel on March 13 to just below $89 a barrel on June 21, the lowest price since December 2010. It was trading at $92.9 a barrel on June 28. The slide is largely due to slower economic growth in China, the main consumer of oil, and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, which has caused growth in the area to slow. Another factor is the supply of oil, which has increased in recent months. In March, Saudi Arabia increased its oil production as
The price of oil fell below $90 a barrel last month and it continues to hover around $93, causing investors to question their commodity holdings. the oil price reached highs to drive the price downwards and cover any shortfall in the world supply caused by Western sanctions on Iran, which reduced its exports. Bestinvest senior
. If there is further deterioration in the global economic recovery, then we could see further falls." Lowcock
investment adviser Adrian Lowcock says there is a risk that the oil price will fall further. He says: "Oil price is an indicator of economic growth and that is why we have seen falls in the price says the oil price could fall further if the eurozone crisis continues to impact on growth in the area. He adds the strength of economic growth in the US and China is looking less certain.
US oil consumption has been declining for four years The Business Insider, July 6, 2012 Friday 2:25 PM EST, Lower Oil Prices Are Definitely Not Good News
US oil consumption shrank by 3.2 percent, comparing the first four months of 2012 with a similar period of 2011. This is
concerning, because based on Figure 5, it looks much like a repeat of the pattern that took place in the 2005 to 2009 time period. Oil consumption was stable during the period 2005 through 2007, then dropped in early 2008 by an amount not too different from the decrease in oil consumption from 2011 to 2012. The bigger step-down in oil consumption came in 2009, after oil prices dropped, and the follow-on effects (reduced credit availability, layoffs) had started. Now oil consumption has been relatively stable in 2009 to 2011, but there has been a step down in consumption in 2012, similar to the step-down in early 2008.
High oil prices lead to economic slowdown for nations and create global social unrest Whipple, 12/11 (Tom Whipple - one of the most highly respected analysts of peak oil issues in the United States. A retired 30-year CIA analyst who has been following the
peak oil story since 1999, The Peak Oil Crisis: 2012 Apocalypse Now?, http://www.postcarbon.org/article/638272-the-peak-oil-crisis-2012)
, persistently high oil prices are gaining increasing recognition as a major factor in slowing economic growth. While high oil prices coupled with new technologies have brought forth new sources of oil, most commentators ignore the fact thatthis "new" oil in simply unaffordable in today's economies. The older cheap stuff that we have been living on for the last century still makes up about 75 percent of our daily consumption, but, and this is a big but , the cheap oil is disappearing at the rate of 3-4 million
While most attention has been paid to refinancing debt
barrels a day (b/d) each year . In 20 years cheap oil will be largely gone, replaced by unaffordable "unconventional oil," if we can raise enough capital to exploit the stuff. Recent economic research shows that when the U.S. spends more than 4.5 percent of its GDP on oil,
it goes into recession. Although there is some debate on how to calculate the price at which oil prices seriously damage the GDP, some say $90 a barrel will do nicely. Keep in mind that oil has
The second set of problems likely to explode in 2012 is the political instability. The most serious is in the Arab world, but as demonstrations in Moscow, China, Kazakhstan, Europe, and even mild ones on Wall Street show, social unrest is turning into a worldwide problem as resources become constrained and economic growth slows. Mankind now has seven billion mouths to feed and these are increasing by 70 million each year. There is going to be a turning point, the only question is when? Unrest and various geopolitical confrontations have already reduced or eliminated oil exports from Libya, Yemen, and Syria this year. Efforts to
been selling in most places for over $100 a barrel during 2011 and shows no signs of retreating very much in the near future. sanction Iran seem to be picking up steam and the oil markets are nervous that many countries soon will be forced to stop buying Iranian crude. The Syrian situation continues downhill and
It is a good bet that there is going to be less oil exported from the Middle East and possibly Central Asia by the end of next year - raising oil prices despite deteriorating economic conditions. On top of an emerging global economic downturn and the
the delicate Iraqi political balance that was crafted by the US appears to have lasted for only a few days after the last US troops were withdrawn. prospects for less oil from the Middle East, we have the United States where the electorate seems to have voted itself into political gridlock while seeking to vote for better times. It seems likely that very little in terms of improving economic policies will be accomplished in Washington until another election or two takes place and the electorate can sort out some sort of coherent path for the country. Until then a large case of fiscal austerity and more unemployment will be the order of the day. The case for major new troubles starting in 2012 rests on the likelihood of the collapse of much or all of the Eurozone and increased turmoil in the Middle East. The interesting part of this scenario is both of these situations can come about in numerous ways. This of course increases the chances markedly that something very bad will indeed happen soon. Plan solves the impact. Wirth et al 3 says that nations will model after us, meaning nations will not be dependent on oil post-plan.
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K Answers
Kritiks kill debate First, they shift focus away from policy Inherently reduces predictable topic research by increased emphasis on deconstructing ideas and language Policy focus has a higher educational value more real world, current events, and policy knowledge Policy focus also is more fair because its more predictable which creates more stable ground for both sides of the debate Second, they cause infinite regression Even Bill Shanahan admits that this make debate impossible Bennett 96
AN INTRODUCTION TO THE "KRITIK" William Bennett; Chairperson of the CDE National Debate Institute; 1996 http://debate.uvm.edu/NFL/rostrumlib/cxkbennett0496.pdf
Kritiks are logically flawed their use creates infinite regression in debate logic and argument kritik answers, and because the concept itself ignores its own implication of endless deconstruction and regression
. As a tactic, a stratagem, kritiks are both internally and externally flawed. First, because , if accepted, invites or assumption or supposition. When the affirmative answers the negative again asks "why" and this silly kritik game goes on until the time expires. Or the affirmative might answer a kritik with a kritik of the kritik. And then the negative might answer the
. At its simplest level a kritik can just ask "why" of any affirmative
William Shanahan states the problem clearly If you allow certain fundamental assumptions to be debated, then you open the way for all assumptions to be debated: infinite regression. Without limits, debate is impossible . The
affirmative kritik of the kritik with a kritik of the kritik that kritiks the original kritik. And so it can go until time expires. (p. A-7): " , a defender of kritiks, might parallel the experience of all seeking after knowledge: withdrawal. Fine for thinking, but what about debate?
This response presupposes the legitimacy and rules of logic. Infinite regression actually
ground made available by the kritik is literally limitless .
"
Third, Kritiks lead to nihilism and paralysis in debaters Bennett 96

kritiks are a dead end. Heideggar himself described them exactly that way. The questioning of all assumptions leaves no belief to hold onto. It leads to belief in nothing, nihilism. This can and often does produce a "paralyzing skepticism." Those who use kritiks are guilty of trying to convert a constructive exchange over how to best solve problems into a nihilistic deconstructive disaster that teaches students nothing but how to rationalize avoiding making decisions. A kritik never encourages or even allows complete examination of an issue because a kritik insists on rejection, on destruction.
Fifth,
Fourth, Kritiks utilize prima facie burdens to moot the entire aff, I often find myself fighting just to be able to weigh case this is a time and strat skew
144
Fifth, Kritiks are hyper-generic, they fit every case on every topic provides disincentives to original thought and clash bad for critical thinking and education Sixth, Kritiks are elitist Jargon and ivory tower nature of kritiks makes dialogue impossible and also makes aff research burden enormous, we have to read all potential K lit, the negs, just have to study a single K author well They alienate debaters this kills participation in debate Bennett 96
kritiks increase complexity and obscurity. Kritiks almost always function outside the usual conceptual categories that create and evaluate debate arguments. The kritik stems from German and French philosophical traditions alien to almost all coaches and debaters. To use Foucault and/ or Heidegger is to implement a philosophical school infamous for its vagueness, difficulty, obscurity, and complexity. And it is done in an arena alien to the purpose or intent of these strands of philosophy.
Seventh,
Vote aff to break the cycle of kritiks multiple alternatives exist for K debaters Bennett 96
kritiks lack fair prior notice. Debaters enter a tournament legitimately expecting to debate policy comparisons. Unlike traditional voting issues, a kritik cannot be defeated by strong case research and preparation of deep logical argument extensions. The sheer number and diversity of kritiks preclude fair prior notice of kritiks as a ballot decision rule. If judges award ballots based on
Eighth,
kritiks debaters are forced to accept its principles or risk a loss That "coercion," is unfair participants who use the kritik believe in its worth and value. But there are other options that do not impinge on competitive policy debate, or do not attract the problems associated with current kritik use. True believers can hold kritik tournaments, tournaments whose invitations and rules make it clear that kritiks are to be the focus of the competition. They can start a new contest event or a new activity They might lobby to include in topic ballots a resolution specifically and openly designed to promote kritik debates. If the kritik user believes in the fair advocacy of the kritik, rather than just its use a strategy to gain an unfair advantage, these are viable alternatives that solve most or all of the problems associated with this divisive tactic
. as Shors refers to it (p. A-17), . Some for such people . .
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Empirically, kritiks have failed 1. Real world radical postmodernist professors and hypercritical advocates have failed to accomplish any major social change and have only delegitimized their movements; the fact that all of their authors have been trying to create social change for decades proves failure 2. In Debate kritiks have been run since 1982 and havent accomplished major social change in debate, instead they have attained the stigma of being lazy and abusing the argument as a strategy to win rounds. Kritiks have done little, but to polarize the community Utopian Fiat is Bad they fiat a global mindset shift Bad for education: Not real world -- By definition, we can never learn about practical policy solutions. While nice to think about, an imaginary world is ultimately useless. Annihilates Ground -- We can literally never win a debate when the other team can just imagine away all of lifes problems. Make them have to win a revolution in global mindset No literature aff/neg cant research answers to utopian positions because they simply DONT EXIST. Err aff on theory -- neg gets the block and can control the outcome of the debate by strategically picking certain arguments. Voter for education, ground, and fairness
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Perm do both The K is a disconnect with the public causes it to be rejected Paglia 92
Sex, Art, and American Culture: Essays Camille Paglia; social critic, bestseller author and professor of humanities and media studies at the University of the Arts in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, UKs Prospect Magazine top 100 intellectuals; Septe mber 8, 1992 NCHO
A serious problem in America is the gap between academe and the mass media, which is our culture leftist fantasies, have little direct knowledge of American life and no impact whatever
. Professors of humanities, with all their
on public policy . Academic commentary on popular culture is either ghettoized as lackluster "communications," tarted up with semiotics, or loaded down with censoriousness: the pitifully witless masses are always being brainwashed by money-grubbing capitalist pigs. But mass media is completely, even servilely commercial. It is a mirror of the popular mind. The people vote with ratings and dollars. Academic with their elitist sense of superiority to popular taste, are the biggest snobs in America. The American intellectual should mediate between academe and media, the past and the present. Language should be lucid, concrete, direct, with the brash candor of the American people and the brusque, can-do rhythms of American life. American intellectual life has been in the doldrums. It needs to be jump-started with the energy of mass media. Academics have got to get out of the Parisian paper matchbox and back into the cultural mainstream, the American roaring rapids, with their daily excitement and bracing vulgarity.
grim, quasi-Marxist, Frankfurt School All the P.R. in the world cannot make a hit movie or sitcom. Marxists, - to the Algonquin wits, like Dorothy Parker, with her caustic one-liners, and to pugnacious literary journalists like Edmund Wilson and Mary McCarthy. Ever since the triumph of television and rock music (both of which I worship),
I was always attracted to Thirties voices
Public support of the K is key to prevent violence Miller 11

Will Extremists Hijack Occupy Wall Street? JAMES MILLER; professor of politics at the New School for Social Research, is the author of Democracy Is in the Streets: From Port Huron to the Siege of Chicago.; October 25, 2011 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/opinion/willextremists-hijack-occupy-wall-street.html NCHO
The success of a polarizing movement hinges on obtaining publicity and attention from outsiders. The surest way to obtain such publicity is through demonstrations that prompt a disproportionate and unjust response from the authorities. Violent confrontations can be intoxicating, on both sides of the barricades; so, a taste for street fighting takes hold among a small number of protesters
But in some ways the most insidious and intractable paradox of participatory democracy is generated by the unrelenting demand for consensus that pursues its aims through polarizing protest. The paradox unfolds as follows. .
Micropolitical movements get hijacked by radicals Miller 11

Will Extremists Hijack Occupy Wall Street? JAMES MILLER; professor of politics at the New School for Social Research, is the author of Democracy Is in the Streets: From Port Huron to the Siege of Chicago.; October 25, 2011 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/opinion/willextremists-hijack-occupy-wall-street.html NCHO
the demand for consensus puts the most uncompromising militants in a position where they can veto the tactics and strategy proposed by the vast majority of their comrades. The moderates are inclined to compromise. So they silence their reservations about the tactics of the revolutionaries for the sake of preserving consensus and unity And although everyone on the inside knows who the most articulate leaders of different groups are, none of these de facto leaders can be held accountable, since, according to the groups utopian vision, there are no leaders
Meanwhile, back in the general assemblies that are one hallmark of a radical democratic movement like Occupy Wall Street, willy-nilly . Disagreements disappear, at least for public consumption. . By 1969, a version of this sort of perverse logic had led the New Left to a frank embrace of violence, and then terrorism and the Weathermen reaped the whirlwind. And today, one has only to read The Coming Insurrection, a manifesto that is one touchstone for the anarchists in Occupy Wall Street, to worry about this movements potential for nihilism. Still, these are early days. It is too soon to know how this new American movement will unfold. One can only hope that the partisans of Occupy Wall Street can learn from the mistakes of their precursors in the 60s. If they can avoid fetishizing the demand for consensus, they may be able to forge a broader coalition that includes friends and allies within the Democratic
It is not too late to confront the perils of participatory democracy from within before another promising democratic movement for social change is hijacked by hooligans on the left
Party and the union movement. .
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Progressivism is growingdemographic trends prove Teixeira 9

(Ruy, Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, where he co-directed a joint Brookings-American Enterprise Institute project on political demography and geography, New Progressive America, March 11, URL: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/03/progressive_america.html)
What happened? How did conservatives do so well in one election but progressives so well in the other? The answer: In those intervening 20 years, a new progressive America has emerged with a new demography, a new geography, and a new agenda. The new demography refers to the array of growing demographic groups that have aligned themselves with progressives and swelled their ranks. The new geography refers to the close relationship between pro- progressive political shifts and dynamic growth areas across the country, particularly within contested states. The new agenda is the current tilt of the public toward progressive ideas and policy
prioritiesa tilt that is being accentuated by the strong support for this agenda among growing demographic groups. All this adds up to big change that is reshaping our country in a fundamentally progressive direction. Consider some of the components of the new demography. Between 1988 and 2008, the minority share of voters in presidential elections has risen by 11 percentage points, while the share of increasingly progressive white college graduate voters has risen by four points. But the share of white-working class voters, who have remained conservative in their orientation, has plummeted by 15 points.
The alternative is life-denying everything the Right stands for becomes evil this prevents political alternatives and sparks backlash
Sokoloff 8PhD candidate, UMass Amherst (William, Theory & Event, Volume 11, Issue 4, 2008, E-ISSN: 1092-311X, Critique, Democracy, and Power, Project MUSE, RBatra) critique can also paralyze the imagination, suspend the development of an alternative political vision, and engender despair. If leftist critique becomes hyper-critical, smelling power and injustice everywhere, it can lead to a politics of reaction where everything the Left stands for is posited as good while everything about the Right is evil. As Nietzsche claimed in his essay on the relationship between history and life, critique is an indispensable aspect of the regeneration of life but it must be held within strict limits lest it become life-denying: "it is difficult to set limits on this negating of the past." What is critique, how much of it is enough,
Critique plays a fundamental role in radical political theory, as well it should. The critical impulse helps us identify the injustices of a given political order. But and for what ends? Two new books contribute to the conversation about the future of radical political theory and how critique ties into this project. In Critique and Disclosure: Critical Theory between Past and Future (2006), Nikolas Kompridis wants to rescue the critical project from itself because it has exhausted its energies and placed us in a situation of normative disorientation and despair. He puts forth a bold vision of a new critical theory that promises to stimulate utopian energy and hopefulness. The fundamental goal of critical theory has always been to bring about "social conditions free from fear and dominationand conducive to human flourishing" (20). For Kompridis, this mission has been blocked by the thought of Jrgen Habermas, the current monarch of critical theory, whose reign must come to an end if the project of critical thought is to advance. Effective critique, for Kompridis, must "meet the challenge of reopening the future, enlarging the space of possibility and thereby restoring cultural confidence" (254). Habermas has failed on all three of these counts as a result of his narrow conception of reason and
the notion of critique as total unmasking has also "exhausted itself" (252) and failed to meet these challenges because it only unmasks power and lacks a sufficiently affirmative dimension. For Kompridis, an affirmative vision of a better political world must be articulated to restore hope. New meanings must be
reformist politics. Similarly, opened to renew both the past and future, new possibilities illuminated to enlarge the sphere of political options. Critique newly conceived must aim at the "self-decentering disclosure of meaning and possibility" (255). This will allow us to recover a joy for the world and renew our sense of freedom in the face of infinite possibilities.
Nixon empirically proves the link Miller 11

Will Extremists Hijack Occupy Wall Street? JAMES MILLER; professor of politics at the New School for Social Research, is the author of Democracy Is in the Streets: From Port Huron to the Siege of Chicago.; October 25, 2011 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/opinion/will-extremists-hijack-occupy-wallstreet.html NCHO Formulating institutions and policies may seem boring and dull in comparison with the carnivalesque intensity of marches, protests and occupations. After the whole world is watching showdown between police officers and protesters in Chicago in August 1968, advocates of participatory democracy inside the New Left heaped scorn on the dreary compromises involved in electoral politics and thus inadvertently helped Richard M. Nixon defeat Hubert H. Humphrey in that falls presidential election.
148
The impact is extinction and global dehumanization

Rorty 98 (Richard, Professor of Comparative Literature Stanford University, Achieving Our Country: Leftist Thought in Twentieth-Century
America, p. 89-94)
At that point, something will crack. The nonsuburban electorate will decide that the system has failed and start looking around for a strongman to vote for someone willing to assure them that, once he is elected, the smug bureaucrats, tricky lawyers, overpaid bond salesmen, and postmodernist professors will no longer be calling the shots. A scenario like that of Sinclair Lewis novel It Cant Happen Here may then be played out. For once such a strongman takes office, nobody can predict what will happen. In 1932 , most of the predictions made about what would happen if Hindenburg named Hitler chancellor were wildly overoptimistic. One thing that is very likely to happen is that the gains made in the past forty years by black and brown Americans, and by homosexuals, will be wiped out. Jocular contempt for women will come back into fashion. The words "nigger" and "kike" will once again be heard in the workplace. All the sadism which the academic Left has tried to make unacceptable to its students will come flooding back . All the resentment which badly educated Americans feel about having their
manners dictated to them by college graduates will find an outlet. But such a renewal of sadism will not alter the effects of selfishness. For after my
imagined strongman takes charge, he will quickly make his peace with the international superrich, just as Hitler made his with military adventures which will generate short-term prosperity. He will be a disaster for the country and the world . People will wonder why there was so little
the German industrialists. He will invoke the glorious memory of the Gulf War to provoke resistance to his evitable rise. Where, they will ask, was the American Left? Even though what these authors "theorize" is often something very concrete and near at hand-a current TV show, a media celebrity, a recent scandal-they offer the most abstract and barren explanations imaginable. These futile attempts to philosophize one's way into political relevance are
a symptom of what happens when a Left retreats from activism and adopts a spectatorial approach to the problems of its country. Disengagement from practice produces theoretical hallucinations. These result in an intellectual environment which is, as Mark Edmundson says in his book Nightmare on Main Street, Gothic. The cultural Left is haunted by ubiquitous
specters, the most frightening of which is called "power." This is the name of what Edmundson calls Foucault's "haunting agency, which is everywhere and nowhere, as evanescent and insistent as a resourceful spook."10
149
Perm: The United States federal government should substantially increase its investment in high speed rail in the United States. They criticize justifications for the plan, not outcomes. Many possible justifications exist. If our justification is bad, pick another and do the plan because its outcome is desirable. Standards 1. 1AC reps were potential, not mandatory. No link to severance because there was never attachment in the first place. Their burden to prove otherwise. 2. Logic: its critical to effective decision-making. Otherwise, good ideas will be rejected because they have sub-optimal advocates. Key portable skill. 3. Turns their impact. They privilege form over content. Its a conservative tactic to focus on how one argues instead of what is being argued. Shuts down progressivism. 4.Critical thinking:
150
Assess arguments according a strict standard of relevance to the plan --- anything else teaches a model of decision-making that amplifies all global problems Bassham 7
(Gregory, Professor, Chair of the Philosophy Department, and Director of the Center for Ethics and Public Life Kings College, et al., Critical Thinking: A Students Introduction, p. 3-10) sat through a boring school assembly or mud-slinging
Anyone who has ever watched a political debate can appreciate the importance of staying focused on relevant ideas and information. A favorite debaters trick is to distract attention by raising an irrelevant issue
Relevance an audiences
try to
. Even Abraham Lincoln wasnt above such tricks, as the following story told by his law partner illustrates: In a case where Judge [Stephen T.]
Loganalways earnest and graveopposed him, Lincoln created no little merriment by his reference to Logans style of dress. He carried the surprise in store for the latter, till he reached his turn before the jury. Addressing them, he said: Gentlemen, you must be careful and not permit yourselves to be overcome by the eloquence of counsel for the defense. Judge Logan, I know, is an effective lawyer. I have met him too often to doubt that; but shrewd and careful though he be, still he is sometimes wrong. Since this trial has begun I have discovered that, with all his caution and fastidiousness, he hasnt knowledge enough to put his shirt on right. Logan turned red as crimson, but sure enough, Lincoln was correct, for the former had donned a new shirt, and by mistake had drawn it over his head with the pleated bosom behind. The general laugh which followed destroyed the effect of Logans eloquence over the jurythe very point at which Lincoln aimed. 4 Lincolns ploy was entertaining and succeeded in distracting the attention of the jury. Had the jurors been thinking critically, however, they would have realized that carelessness about ones attire has no logical relevance to the strength of ones arguments. Consistency It is easy to see why consistency is essential to critical thinking. Logic tells us that if a person holds inconsistent beliefs, at least one of those beliefs must be false. Critical thinkers prize truth and so are constantly on the lookout for inconsistencies, both in their own thinking and in the arguments and assertions of others. There are two kinds of inconsistency that we should avoid. One is logical inconsistency, which involves saying or believing inconsistent things (i.e., things that cannot both or all be true) about a particular matter. The other is practical inconsistency, which involves saying one thing and doing another. Sometimes people are fully aware that their words con ict with their deeds. The politician who cynically breaks her campaign promises once she takes of ce, the TV evangelist caught in an extramarital affair, the drug counselor arrested for peddling drugssuch people are hypocrites pure and simple. From a critical thinking point of view, such examples are not especially interesting. As a rule, they involve failures of character to a greater degree than they do failures of critical reasoning. More interesting from a critical thinking standpoint are cases in which people are not fully aware that their words con ict with their deeds. Such cases highlight an important lesson of critical thinking: that human beings often display a remarkable capacity for self-deception. Author Harold Kushner cites an all-too-typical example: Ask the average person which is more important to him, making money or being devoted to his family, and virtually everyone will answer family without hesitation. But watch how the average person actually lives out his life. See where he really invests his time and energy, and he will give away the fact that he really does not live by what he says he believes. He has let himself be persuaded that if he leaves for work earlier in the morning and comes home more tired at night, he is proving how devoted he is to his family by expending himself to provide them with all the things they have seen advertised. 6 Critical thinking helps us become aware of such unconscious practical inconsistencies, allowing us to deal with them on a conscious and rational basis. It is also common, of course, for people to unknowingly hold inconsistent beliefs about a particular subject. In fact, as Socrates pointed out long ago, such unconscious logical inconsistency is far more common than most people suspect. As we shall see, for
To think logically is to reason correctlythat is, to draw well-founded conclusions from the beliefs we hold. To think critically we accurate well supported beliefs we need to be able to reason from beliefs to conclusions that logically follow Unfortunately, illogical thinking is common in human affairs
example, many today claim that morality is relative, while holding a variety of views that imply that it is not relative. Critical thinking helps us recognize such logical inconsistencies or, still better, avoid them altogether. Logical Correctness need and . But, just as important, those from them. all too . Bertrand Russell, in his classic essay An Outline of Intellectual Rubbish, provides an amusing example: I am sometimes shocked by the blasphemies of those who think themselves piousfor instance, the nuns who never take a bath without wearing a bathrobe all the time. When asked why, since no man can see them, they reply: Oh, but you forget the good God. Apparently they conceive of the deity as a Peeping Tom, whose omnipotence enables Him to see through bathroom walls, but who is foiled by bathrobes. This view strikes me as curious. 8 As Russell observes, from the proposition 1. God sees everything. the pious nuns correctly drew the conclusion 2. God sees through bathroom walls. However, they failed to draw the equally obvious conclusion that 3. God sees through bathrobes. Such illogic is,
we rightly prefer complete thinking to shallow supercial thinking we condemn slipshod investigations, hasty deliberations, supercial stories, sketchy directions, and snap diagnoses Generally speaking thinking is better when deep rather than shallow, thorough rather than supercial
indeed, curiousbut not, alas, uncommon. Completeness In most contexts, justly criminal deep and and jury news driving medical genetic research in a short newspaper editorial. , however, it is . Fairness Finally, critical thinking demands that our thinking be fairthat is, openminded, impartial, and free of distorting biases and preconceptions. That can be very dif cult to achieve. Even the most super cial clearly an essential attribute of a critical thinker. THE BENEFITS OF CRITICAL THINKING
. Thus,
. Of course, there are times when it is impossible or inappropriate to discuss an issue in depth; no one would expect, for example, a thorough and wide-ranging discussion of the ethics of human
acquaintance with history and the social sciences tells us that people are often strongly disposed to resist unfamiliar ideas, to prejudge issues, to stereotype outsiders, and to identify truth with their own self-interest or the interests of their nation or group. It is probably unrealistic to suppose that our thinking could ever be completely free of biases and preconceptions; to some extent we all perceive reality in ways that are powerfully shaped by our individual life experiences and cultural backgrounds. But as dif cult as it may be to achieve, basic fair-mindedness is
reasoning
(clarity, precision, and so forth),
Having looked at the key intellectual standards governing critical lets consider what you gain from critical thinking
some of now more specically can expect to a course in those and beliefs
. Critical Thinking in the Classroom When
they rst enter college, students are sometimes surprised to discover that their professors seem less interested in how they got their beliefs than they are in whether those beliefs can withstand critical scrutiny. In college the focus is on higher-order thinking: the active, intelligent evaluation of ideas and information. For this reason critical thinking plays a vital role throughout the college curriculum. In a critical thinking course, students learn a variety of skills that can greatly improv e their classroom performance. These
critically evaluating arguments supported arguments

understanding the arguments and beliefs of others will also be asked to develop your own arguments on particular topics or issues. an
skills include developing and defending ones wellown
and beliefs Lets look briey at each of these three skills. To succeed in college, you must, of course, be able to understand the material you are studying. A course in critical thinking cannot make inherently difcult material
easy to grasp, but critical thinking does teach a variety of skills that, with practice, can signicantly improve your ability to understand the arguments and issues discussed in your college textbooks and classes. In addition, critical thinking can help you critically evaluate what you are learning in class. During your college career, your instructors will often ask you to discuss critically some argument or idea introduced in class. Critical thinking teaches a wide range of strategies and skills that can greatly improve your ability to engage in such critical evaluations. You
In American Government class you might be asked whether Congress has gone too far To write a paper successfully, you must and assess relevant arguments and information
, for example, in restricting presidential war powers. such Life
to write a paper addressing the issue of do more than simply
nd
. You must also be able to marshal arguments and evidence in a way that convincingly supports your view. The systematic training provided in a course
in critical thinking can greatly improve that skill as well. Critical Thinking in the Workplace Surveys indicate that fewer than half of todays college graduates can expect to be working in their major eld of st udy within ve years of graduation. This statistic speaks volumes about changing workplace realities. Increasingly, employers are looking not for employees with highly specialized career skills, since such skills can usually best be learned on the job, but for employees with good thinking and communication skillsquick learners who can solve problems, think creatively, gather and analyze information, draw appropriate conclusions from data, and communicate their ideas clearly and effectively. These are exactly the kinds of generalized thinking and problem-solving skills that a course in critical thinking aims to improve. Critical Thinking in
Critical thinking is valuable in many contexts outside the classroom critical thinking can help us avoid making foolish personal decisions. All of us have made decisions about purchases, relationships behavior that we later realized were seriously misguided Critical thinking can help us avoid mistakes by teaching us to think about important life decisions more carefully, clearly, and logically critical thinking plays a vital role in promoting democratic processes It is vital that citizens decisions be as informed and as deliberate as possible. Many of todays most serious societal
and the workplace. Lets look brie y at three ways in which this is the case. First, at one time or another consumer , personal , and the like or irrational. such . Second, . Despite what cynics might say, in a democracy it really is we the people who have the ultimate say over who governs and for what purposes. , therefore,
problems environmental destruction , nuclear proliferation , religious and ethnic intolerance , decaying inner cities , failing schools , spiraling health-care costs , to mention just a few have largely been caused by poor critical thinking signicant problems cannot be solved at the level of thinking we were at when we created them
. And as Albert Einstein once remarked, The . we face
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Security K
No alt text bad 1.Reciprocity- aff needs a plan text 2.Moving target bad- Text is the only stable advocacy 3.Time and strategy skew- We dont know what the alternative actually is until the rebuttals, wasting our only constructive to create offense against the K. 4.Cant prove competitiveness- We dont know what we can perm if theres no text, and theyll just change their alt accordingly Voter for fairness- Its irreversible damage. 1. Case Outweighs We must solve for our impacts with a fast timeframe- their impacts have no brink- Security isnt the root cause of any of our impacts and has existed in the US FOREVER. 2. No internal link there is no correlation between security and violence. Just because there are instances of corruption doesnt mean everyone is bad. Make them prove empirics. 3. Perm do both- The plan is not mutually exclusive with the alternative. The permutation is bestpursuing an emancipatory agenda while placing ontological questioning in the background is key to meaningful change.
4. Frameworknegative must defend the status quo or a competitive policy option: sheer criticism alone is not a policy action. This produces the best debates because it leads to contestation over what the government should do in the real world. Utopian alternatives are an unfair lever, and any other framework risks mooting the 1AC advantages, creating an unfair model of debate. 5. Perm Double bind: do the plan and reject security in all other instances - either the alt is strong enough to solve for the residual links or the alt is not strong enough to solve what they claim. Make them prove brinks
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6. Alternative failsthere is a disconnect between the alternative evidence and the alternative advocacythe evidence advocates for criticism in multiple instances but the neg only criticizes the aff. This presents a barrier that the alt cannot overcome.
9. Totalizing rejection fails negative oversimplifies international system
Price and Reus-Smit, Profs. @ U Minnesota and Monasch U, 1998 p. online

(Richard and Christian Dangerous Liasons?.. European Journal of IR)
the sound and fury of metatheoretical debates at times would have us believe that alternative approaches on different sides of the various divides could not possibly make any valuable contributions to understanding world politics given their erroneous ontological, epistemological and methodological presumptions. Such denials are not tenable from those arguing from the Nietzschean perspectivism that informs much of critical theory; those in the critical tradition cannot insinuate that their work is to replace wholesale other traditions of inquiry and types of explanations insofar as that would merely substitute one totalizing discourse for another. All accounts of the world are partial, whether they be rationalist or constructivist, and the best that can be claimed on behalf of either is that they illuminate aspects of an event or phenomena that are
In sum, required for an adequate understanding of the explanandum in question.
10. Perm: Do the plan without our representations it solves all of case and avoids the k 11. They are in a double bind- either they don't solve case, enabling us to weigh our impacts against the critique, or they employ utopian fiat which is a voter for fairness and competitive equity: It enables positions like solving world hunger, which are impossible for an aff to win against
12. Weigh the advantages against the K: a. Fairness accessing the 1AC key to aff ground interpretations that arbitrarily make the debate about another issue are infinitely regressive and unpredictable b. Education forces higher link standards, increases topic specific discussion, and forces the neg to contextualize their argument in terms of the aff
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Warming Impact Calc

cataclysmic events in history worse than war, famine, or plague

. James Lovelock (creator of the Gaia theory) states

(three species (just to name a few

by 1.1C to 6.4C over

, polar bears and

. A three degree increase will result in Perth (my home

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Timeframe Abrupt climate change is near certain empirically proven Preuss 8

Most people think of

climate change as something that occurs only gradually

Cutting emissions solves UCS 4

abrupt climate change is not a certainty, human-caused climate change makes

abrupt events more likely .

By making choices now to reduce our

Must act before 2020 Calvin 2008

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Economy Impact Calc

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Econ Turns Environment

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Communities dont have the resources they need

and so weve talked to the mayor about trying

Municipal Thats an issue

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