Interest Rates Research

US Futures 14 February 2013

H3-M3 Treasury futures roll outlook

Amrut Nashikkar +1 212 412 1848 amrut.nashikkar@barclays.com Vivek Shukla +1 212 412 2532 vivek.s.shukla@barclays.com

This is an edited reprint of H3-M3 Futures Roll Outlook: We expect front tenors and the WN calendars to cheapen, February 13, 2013.

We expect muted cheapening in the TU calendar, given that asset manager long
positions have declined recently.

Price-insensitive long asset managers and the relative CTD price action so far
suggest a cheapening FV calendar.

We are neutral on TY and US calendars because of net short asset manager

positioning in the former and the same front and back CTD in the latter.

We expect the WN calendar to cheapen, driven by structural asset manager long

positions and CTDs that are different between the two contracts. We enter the H3-M3 rolls following a sell-off that has driven 10y yields higher by ~25bp since December, much like the environment during the U2-Z2 roll. There remains significant uncertainty over the fate of the sequester cuts scheduled to hit the economy on March 1. We expect Treasury yields to remain low and the curve to flatten with the continued unwind of the bond auction concession over the next week. We expect asset manager positions, relative CTD price action and yield/slope changes to dictate the calendar roll over the next few weeks. Our expected bull flattening should exert cheapening pressure on outright calendar spreads first, the longer duration back CTD richens more in a rally; and second, the yields for the back contracts CTD decline more in a flattening environment. In this cycle, the FV, TY, and especially the WN rolls have significant rate exposure, making it important to hedge their DV01s.

FIGURE 1 Summary of recommendations

Cal Cheapest to deliver Front WN US TY FV TU 4.500 May38s 5.500 Aug28s 3.375 Nov19s 0.625 May17s 2.625 Dec14s Back 4.500 Aug39s 5.500 Aug28s 3.625 Feb20s 0.625 Aug17s 2.500 Mar15s Last close 32nds 10.0 48.0 37.0 15.7 2.0 Model 32nds 9.7 47.6 34.4 16.1 1.8 Hedge ratio M3/H3 1.038 1.000 1.027 1.054 1.136 DV01 ($100 notional) 32nds/bp 0.30 (0.00) 0.07 0.09 0.04 Switch option (32nd) Front 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Back 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Bearish Neutral Neutral Bearish Bearish Recommend.

Note: Data as of February 13, 2012, closes. Source: Barclays Research

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 6

Barclays | US Futures

FIGURE 2 TU Z2-H3 calendar cheapened slightly less than the average over the past eight cycles
0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -15 -10 -5 0 Days to First Delivery Date 5
Z2-H3 Average over past 8 cycles Z2-H3 DV01 Hedged

FIGURE 3 FV Z2-H3 calendar, both outright and on a DV01-hedged basis, cheapened in line with historical experience
1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -15 -10 -5 0 Days to First Delivery Date 5
Z2-H3 Average over past 8 cycles Z2-H3 DV01 Hedged

32nd

32nd

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Recapping the Z2-H3 roll

Price action in the previous Z2H3 roll was in line with our expectations. Before we outline our outlook for the upcoming H3-M3 rolls, let us briefly recap the previous Z2-H3 roll. Going into the roll, we had expected the shorter-tenor calendars (TU and FV) to cheapen, but we had not expected similar action from the US and TY calendars. The net short asset manager positioning at the TY contract and shared front and back CTDs at the US contracts made us neutral on these rolls. Please see Z2-H3 roll outlook: Short tenor calendars to cheapen for details. Figures 2-5 show the price action of the Z2-H3 rolls, together with the respective averages over the previous eight roll cycles.

TU Z2-H3 roll: This calendar spread cheapened less than the average over the previous
eight cycles (0.3 ticks vs average cheapening of 0.8 ticks) and cheapened later than usual in the roll cycle (Figure 2). On a DV01-hedged basis, the cheapening was more in line with the historical average. This was consistent with our expectations. Positioning-wise, we had noted that the even though gross asset manager longs were at about similar levels as previous rolls, the positions had become been more pricesensitive than during previous rolls (Figure 6). Apart from positioning-related factors, the TUH3 CTD had richened versus the TUZ2 CTD ahead of the rolls, indicating a setup from the RV community in expectation of a cheapening in the calendar roll. Overall, we believe that these factors drove the somewhat muted cheapening of the TU Z2-H3 roll.

FV Z2-H3 roll: The FV calendar cheapened in line with our expectations on a DV01
hedged basis (1.5 ticks, Figure 3). Even though asset managers were net short in the FV contract, it was at levels comparable to the previous two rolls, which had cheapened significantly. Our cheapening view was bolstered by the fact that the back CTD had richened significantly (1.2bp), adjusting for the level of rates, relative to the front over the two weeks heading into the peak roll window.

14 February 2013

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FIGURE 4 Driven by short asset manager positioning, the TY Z2-H3 roll did not cheapen, in contrast to previous eight rolls
1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 -15
Z2-H3 Average over past 8 cycles Z2-H3 DV01 Hedged

FIGURE 5 US Z2-H3 calendar also did not cheapen, likely due to same front and back CTD
0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 -3.5
Z2-H3 Average over past 8 cycles Z2-H3 DV01 Hedged

32nd

32nd

-10

-5 Days to First Delivery Date

-15

-10

-5 Days to First Delivery Date

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

TY Z2-H3 roll: In contrast to the FV, the TY Z2-H3 roll remained largely unchanged on
an unhedged basis and cheapened only 1 tick on a DV01-hedged basis leading into the first delivery date (Figure 4). This was considerably less than the experience over the previous eight cycles, and in line with our expectations. Based on asset manager positioning, we had expected the TY calendar not to cheapen, especially on a DV01hedged basis.

US Z2-H3 roll: Like the TY Z2-H3 roll, the US roll also did not richen according to
historical averages (Figure 5). We had expected an uneventful roll because the USZ2 and H3 contracts had the same CTD (5.5% Aug28s) and in rolls with the same front and back CTDs, even positioning-driven cheapening typically tends to be very muted.

WN Z2-H3 roll: Lastly, the price action in the WN Z2-H3 roll was very similar to the US
roll, likely because the WN contracts also had the same front and back CTDs. We believed there could be a slight cheapening of the roll in case some switch optionality came to be priced into the front contract. However, rates stayed low and this removed a degree of freedom from the roll and likely made it much less volatile.

Outlook for H3-M3 calendar spreads

TUH3-M3: Expect muted cheapening
Though gross asset manager longs have declined recently, they remain at levels similar to during the previous two rolls and these positions appear to have become less pricesensitive In the TU calendar spread, we put more weight on changes in gross long positions by asset managers than on the net positioning picture. Based on historical analysis, we believe that those asset managers who have long TU positions in the current environment tend be less sensitive to pricing, and this often translates to cheapening pressure on the roll. CFTC data show that gross asset manager long positions, as a percent of open interest, have declined sharply recently (Figure 6). Despite the decline, however, the level of gross asset manager longs is only slightly below those during the previous rolls, both of which had cheapened. In addition, the long positions appear to have become less price-sensitive, likely as the more price-sensitive asset managers long positions were taken off during the recent pulling forward of hike expectations.

14 February 2013

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FIGURE 6 TU gross asset manager longs are similar to previous cycles and have become more price-sensitive
30% Asset Manager Gross Long, % of OI Price Insensitivity (RHS) 25% 4 3 2 1 20% 0 15% U2-Z2 roll 10% Jan-12 Z2-H3 roll -1 -2 -3 Jan-13

FIGURE 7 TU back contract CTD has not richened relative to the front, after adjusting for the level of rates
bp 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 -3.5 -35 -32 -29 -26 -23 -20 -17 -14 -11 -8 -5 -2 Days to the first delivery date 1 4 Cheapening of the back CTD, adjusted for level, H3-M3 Average over previous 8 cycles

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Source: CME, Barclays Research

Increasing price insentivity

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

However, the back CTD has not richened relative to the front

On the other hand, the back CTD has not richened relative to the front CTD, after adjusting for the level of rates (Figure 7). Over the past eight cycles, the back CTD would typically have richened ~2bp versus the front at this stage of the roll. This lack of relative richening of the back contracts CTD suggests that relative value traders do not expect the calendar to cheapen as much. Lastly, the TU calendar is trading richer than our model, indicating that there may be room to cheapen. Overall, positioning and error in our model argue for a mildly bearish view on H3-M3 calendar. The decline in gross AM positioning makes us cautious and we might turn neutral if the CFTC positioning data to be released on February 15 show a further sharp decline in gross asset manager longs.

Overall, we are mildly bearish on the calendar spread

FIGURE 8 At FV, asset managers are net short to a much smaller extent than during the previous two rolls
10% Asset Manager Net Long, % of OI Price Insensitivity (RHS) 0% 3 2 1 -10% 0 -20% -1 -30% U2-Z2 roll -40% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Z2-H3 roll Oct-12 -3 Jan-13 -2

FIGURE 9 FV back contract CTD has richened relative to the front, after adjusting for the level of rates
bp 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 -35 -32 -29 -26 -23 -20 -17 -14 -11 -8 -5 Days to First Delivery Date
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Cheapening of the back CTD, adjusted for level, H3-M3 Average over previous 8 cycles

Increasing price insentivity

-2

Source: CME, Barclays Research

14 February 2013

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FVH3-M3: Set up for a bearish move

Asset managers remain net short in the FV contract (-2% of open interest). To put this in context, the net asset manager short positioning was ~20% of open interest during the previous two rolls, when these rolls had cheapened both on an unhedged and a DV01hedged basis. Thus, positioning-related factors argue for a cheapening of the FV calendar. Asset managers are net short in the FV contract, but much less than in previous rolls Consistent with RV traders expecting a cheapening roll, the back CTD has richened relative to the front (~1bp). Some may argue that this richening of the back CTD represents a downside risk to our roll cheapening view, but historically our observation is that this kind of richness only unwinds after the roll has concluded. Further, the richening of the back CTD at this stage is similar to the previous roll, which had cheapened from this point on. Driven by the cheapness of the front contract versus our model, the FV calendar looks cheap. We expect this relative cheapness of the calendar to continue, particularly given that back CTD still has room to richen. Overall, we expect the FV calendar to cheapen as we head into the peak roll period.

Back CTD has richened relative to the front, likely indicating calendar cheapening expectations of RV traders

TYH3-M3: Expect a sideways move

Net asset manager positioning still argues for a neutral outlook on the TY calendar CFTC data show that net asset manager positioning is still short, although longs have increased recently. However, the net positioning is comparable to the past two rolls, which had only cheapened ~0.5 ticks, significantly lesser than the average 2.5 ticks cheapening over the previous eight cycles. Thus, the net asset manager positioning argues for a neutral outlook on the TY calendar. Figure 10 shows that even as the net long positions have increased recently, they have become more price-sensitive. This should further reduce the cheapening pressure on the TY calendar since price sensitive asset managers are more likely to roll opportunistically. Unlike the previous cycle, the back CTD has actually cheapened relative to the front in the current cycle after adjusting for the level of rates (Figure 11), suggesting expectations of a richening roll. Historically, the back CTD would typically richen before the roll, reflecting the fact that the cheapening in the TY calendar was the most consistent pattern over the past few years. However, the cheapening of back CTD during this cycle shows that the relative value traders do not expect the TY roll to cheapen. We have no reason to disagree and are neutral on the TY calendar. FIGURE 11 TY back contract CTD has actually cheapened relative to the front, after adjusting for the level of rates
bp Cheapening of the back CTD, adjusted for level, H3-M3 Average over previous 8 cycles 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -35 -32 -29 -26 -23 -20 -17 -14 -11 -8 -5 Days to First Delivery Date
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Asset manager positions more price-sensitive, reducing the cheapening pressure Consistent with this, the back CTD has actually cheapened versus the front

FIGURE 10 In the TY contract, the asset managers remain net short

Asset Manager Net Long, % of OI Price Insensitivity (RHS)

10% 0%

3 2 1

-10% 0 -20% Z2-H3 roll -30% Jan-12 U2-Z2 roll Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 -1 -2 Jan-13

Increasing price insentivity

20%

-2

Source: CME, Barclays Research

14 February 2013

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USH3-M3: Deja-vu all over again

Same front and back CTDs make us neutral on the US calendar The USH3 and M3 contracts have the same CTD (5.5% Aug28s). This removes a degree of freedom from the roll, and should make the roll much less volatile. Since 2009, the back and front CTDs have been the same in the US contract on four occasions Z2-H3, H2-M2, U0-Z0 and M9-U9. In each of these instances, the calendar was almost unchanged through the roll period. This was also the experience during the more recent WN Z2-H3 and U2-Z2 rolls. In terms of positioning, net asset manager longs have declined since the previous roll, and the positions likely remain less price-sensitive (Figure 12). Absent other factors, this would argue for a cheaper roll, but given the same front and back CTD, we expect an uneventful US roll, and are neutral.

WNH3-M3: Expect cheapening

Front and back CTDs are different, making the unhedged calendar have significant duration exposure Asset managers remain structurally long in the WN contract, and we are bearish on the calendar spread Structurally, the ultra-bond contract continues to have a bias, with asset managers primarily long and dealers and hedge funds being primarily short. Net asset manager long positions, as percentage of open interest, have increased since the previous roll cycle and remain comfortably above 50% (Figure 13). Unlike during the previous two rolls, however, the front and back CTDs of the WN roll during this cycle are different. In previous roll cycles since 2011, where the front and back CTDs have been different, the average cheapening has been 2 and 1 ticks on an unhedged and Dv01 hedged basis, respectively. We expect the price action in this cycle to resemble these previous cycles. In addition, the back CTD has richened relative to the front after adjusting for level of rates, indicating RV communitys expectations of a cheapening in the WN calendar. This gives us added comfort with our bearish call.

FIGURE 12 For the US contract, the net AM long positions have declined since the previous roll
30% Asset Manager Net Long, % of OI Price Insensitivity (RHS) 5

FIGURE 13 Structural long asset manager positions in the WN contract have increased since the previous roll
Asset Manager Net Long, % of OI 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 U2-Z2 roll Z2-H3 roll Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 -2.5 -3.0 Jan-13

Increasing price insentivity

25%

4 3

20% 2 15% 1 10% U2-Z2 roll 5% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 -1 Jan-13 Z2-H3 roll 0

45% 40% Jan-12

Source: CME, Barclays Research

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

14 February 2013

Increasing price insentivity

6

Price Insensitivity (RHS)

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