Lau Math 20/30 IB SL Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 1

Math Portfolio Type II: Fish Production

Timothy Lau
























February 25, 2013
Mathematics 30/31 IB SL
Mr Davidoff


Lau Math 20/30 IB SL Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 2

Introduction

This assignment investigates two different environments of fish production of a certain country
compares them. The two different environments taken into account are fish production from the seas
and fish production from fish farms. The data was taken from the United Nations Statistics Division
Common Database. To carry out this task, variables and limitations have to be expressed, and the data
given has to be plotted. This will be done through various technologies, such as multiple graphing
software and graphing display calculators (GDCs). The models developed from these graphs using math
and technology will be used to describe current trends as well as predict future trends.


Variables and Limitations

The year can be represented as x and the total mass of fish caught in the sea can be represented as y
with a subscript of fish caught in sea or fish from fish farm.

X is the independent variable, as year can flow without depending on the amount of fish caught.
Y is the dependent variable, as the mass of fish caught can only change when the year changes.

There are limitations to this. Since we know that there is not an infinite amount of fish on the earth, we
know that the number of fish caught in the sea, as the year approaches infinity, cannot go on forever.
Therefore, we know that this is not an exponential function, as that implies an infinite amount of fish.
We also know that it is very improbable that the amount of fish caught is zero, as we require fish to be
caught to keep the fish industries alive. Another limitation is that there cannot be a negative number of
fish caught. Therefore, the constraint for fish production is:
* +
Time is continuous. Fish industries have been alive for millennia. If y represented years, negative would
be a year BC (Before Christ). Fish production existed then as well. Therefore, y is an element of the reals.
*+


Fish from Seas

Year Mass of fish caught in sea in thousands of tonnes
1980 426.8
1981 470.2
1982 503.4
1983 557.3
1984 564.7
1985 575.4
1986 579.8
1987 624.7
1988 669.9
1989 450.5
1990 379.0
1991 356.9
1992 447.5
1993 548.8
1994 589.8
Lau Math 20/30 IB SL Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 3

1995 634.0
1996 527.8
1997 459.1
1998 487.2
1999 573.8
2000 503.3
2001 527.7
2002 566.6
2003 507.8
2004 550.5
2005 426.5
2006 533.0
Table 1. Year and its corresponding mass of fish caught in sea in thousands of tonnes.


Figure 1. The year and its corresponding mass of fish caught in the sea in thousands of tonnes. This
graph was created using LoggerPro. There were several reasons why a limitation to this graphs
maximum was not assigned. First of all, the graph seemingly fluctuates around a certain line. From here,
we can see that the fluctuation is dying down however, we cannot assume that fish production will
always stay at that equilibrium point. There might be a fluctuation bigger than the one we see on the
graph. Another reason is that a proper model has not been assigned yet.

To view and model this graph more easily, we can start the numbering of the year from 0 onwards, 0
being 1980, and dividing all the terms of the mass by a hundred, making the y-axis Total mass of fish
caught in the sea in hundred thousands of tonnes.

Year Total mass of fish caught in the sea in hundred thousands
of tonnes
0 4.268
1 4.702
Lau Math 20/30 IB SL Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 4

2 5.034
3 5.573
4 5.647
5 5.754
6 5.798
7 6.247
8 6.699
9 4.505
10 3.790
11 3.569
12 4.475
13 5.488
14 5.898
15 6.340
16 5.278
17 4.591
18 4.872
19 5.738
20 5.033
21 5.277
22 5.666
23 5.078
24 5.505
25 4.265
26 5.330
Table 2. The year starting from 0 (0 being 1980) and corresponding mass of fish caught in sea in hundred
thousands of tonnes.


Figure 2. The year starting from 0 and its corresponding mass of fish caught in the sea in hundred
thousands of tonnes. This graph was created using a graphing program called Graph.exe
Lau Math 20/30 IB SL Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 5

(http://www.padowan.dk/). The graphing program has changed as this program makes the graph
clearer than LoggerPro does when printed out. Limitations still apply.

There is a definite trend from the data points. They seem to fluctuate around a certain total mass of fish
caught, somewhere in the 500-600 thousand tonne range. Whenever there is a large displacement from
this equilibrium, there is an almost equal displacement from the equilibrium in the opposite direction.
This second displacement tends to be smaller than the first as the points seem to want to return to the
equilibrium line. This effect is like a pendulum as the external force keeping the pendulum in the air is
taken away, the swing slowly moves back to its equilibrium point. However, while it slows down, it
continues to sway back and forth until it actually stops at its equilibrium point. There is one more thing.
It is noticeable, but it is not a trend. At the start of the graph, as the graph approaches what seems to be
the equilibrium, it curves off, almost as if the equilibrium was an asymptote. In short, both the
amplitude and the period are decreasing as x approaches infinity.

There were several candidates for acceptable models. Because this graph fluctuates, a prominent
candidate was the trigonometric function namely, sine and cosine. In physics, sine and cosine graphs
were utilized to show the effect of simple harmonic motion. The graphs regressed as the motion
decreased. This showed that both the trigonometric graphs can regress as this one has. Both the sine
and cosine graphs can be translated enough to follow the domain mentioned above. Another worthy
candidate is the sigmoid function from the logistic model. This function has a definite S-shape in the
graph. As the graph reaches a certain y-value, it tapers off along an asymptote. However, it may
fluctuate along this asymptote. We can see that the graph tapers off in the beginning, signifying that
there may be an asymptote in this graph. We can also extrapolate the S-shape before 1980 using
reasoning. The fishing industry had to have started at some time, which means that the amount of fish
being produced before that was at 0 [thousands of tonnes]. The fishing industry would have had
increasing amounts of production - when something flourishes, it grows. However, this growth in
production will eventually slow down, which is already shown in the graph above. Following this
reasoning, the graph is at an S-shape until around 1986, where fish production continues to fluctuate
along the asymptote. When a sigmoid function fluctuates, it does so very much in the manner that this
graph is doing so described in the trends section. Since this reasoning is logical, the S-shape extrapolated
can be safely assumed to be there. Another possible model that this graph can be is a combination of
two sinusoidal functions. When two of these functions are put together, their amplitudes either increase
or decrease the amplitude of the resulting curve. For example, when they are in phase with each other,
they will amplify the amplitude. This, called the principle of superposition in terms of physics, is a
possibility due to the varying amplitude of the curve shown above. Two basic trigonometric functions
can also be considered for use. Both their amplitude decreases while x approaches infinity. These
functions are: ()
()

and()
()

. A piecewise function was not considered. This is

because of the fact that when a piecewise is used, the graph cannot be extrapolated and therefore
predictions cannot be made. The mathematical model that was developed was
f(x) = [(-((4.75cos((1/4)2x)-4.5)/x)+4]+[(1.1)sin(x))+0.5].

For the fish in thousands of tonnes, the model is
f(x) = [(-((4.75cos((1/4)2x)-4.5)/x)+400]+[(1.1)sin(x))+50].



For analytical work, see page 13.
Lau Math 20/30 IB SL Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 6


Figure 3. The two curves (green and red) used to create the model (blue) through superposition. This
graph was created on Graph.exe.


Figure 4. The mathematical model along with the points on the graph as shown above. This graph was
created using a program called Graph.exe.

This was done using the method of superposition by combining the two basic functions ()
()

and () (). Superposition seemed to be the best way to deal with the fact that the amplitude
Lau Math 20/30 IB SL Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 7

was decreasing as x approached infinity. Also, since the original function was a sinusoidal curve, it
made sense to use trigonometric functions. As amplitude decreased, one of the functions used had to
have decreasing amplitude as well. ()
()

had the perfect amplitude decrease model.

()
()

also had an amplitude decrease model. However, when parameters such as stretch and
placement were changed, ()
()

stopped being so cooperative. Therefore, ()

()

was
chosen. In the second trigonometric function used for superposition, () () was chosen instead
of () () because the original had a slight curve off at the beginning (the slope approached 0).
Because of this, amplitude had to be decreased using a superposition with a change in phase. Using a
sine graph seemed much easier than changing a cosine phase. The only part that had to be worked out
were the transformations.


Fish from Fish Farms

Year Mass of Fish produce in fish farms in thousands of
tonnes
1980 1.4
1981 1.5
1982 1.7
1983 2.0
1984 2.2
1985 2.7
1986 3.1
1987 3.3
1988 4.1
1989 4.4
1990 5.8
1991 7.8
1992 9.1
1993 12.4
1994 16.0
1995 21.6
1996 33.2
1997 45.5
1998 56.7
1999 63.0
2000 79.0
2001 67.2
2002 61.2
2003 79.9
2004 94.7
2005 119.8
2006 129.0
Table 3. The year and its corresponding mass of fish produced in fish farms in thousands of tonnes.

Lau Math 20/30 IB SL Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 8


Figure 5. The year and the corresponding mass of fish from fish farms in thousands of tonnes. This graph
was created using LoggerPro. From year 1980 to 2000, there is a large exponential growth. Then there is
a slight decrease from 2000 to 2002, where the decrease stops and the graph continually increases
linearly until 2006, where the graph stops. The model created displayed on Figure 3 does not fit this
graph. This has a prominent horizontal asymptote preventing the graph from entering below zero, while
the model created had a vertical asymptote. Also, the model did not account for the dip that this graph
experiences.

Year (starting with 1980 as 0) Mass of Fish produce in fish farms in thousands of tonnes
0 1.4
1 1.5
2 1.7
3 2.0
4 2.2
5 2.7
6 3.1
7 3.3
8 4.1
9 4.4
10 5.8
11 7.8
12 9.1
13 12.4
14 16.0
15 21.6
16 33.2
17 45.5
18 56.7
19 63.0
Lau Math 20/30 IB SL Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 9

20 79.0
21 67.2
22 61.2
23 79.9
24 94.7
25 119.8
26 129.0
Table 4. To view this graph more easily, the year with 1980 starting as year 0 with corresponding mass of
fish produced in fish farms in thousands of tonnes.


Figure 6. To view this graph more easily, the year with 1980 starting as year 0 with corresponding mass
of fish produced in fish farms in thousands of tonnes. This graph was created using a program called
Graph.exe. Note: The last point labelled as series 1 is not a point, it merely names the point series.

For this graph, it is better to use a piecewise function to model it. This graph can be split into 3 different
pieces:


() * ()
* ()
* ()








Lau Math 20/30 IB SL Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 10



Figures 7-9. The graph of Figure 6 split into its piecewise function.
From 0<x<20, we can see that the graph is a diverging exponential function.

This can be represented by the base exponential function: ()

Using the GDC tool PlySmlt2 tool, the equation for x {0x20} is () ()

.
From 20<x<22, we can see that the graph is a decreasing linear function

This can be expressed in the basic linear formula: ()
Using the graphing software, the equation for x {20x22} is () .







Lau Math 20/30 IB SL Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 11





And from 22<x<26, we can see that the graph is a square root function.

This can be expressed in the basic linear formula: ()
Using the graphing software, the equation for x {22x26} is () .

Figures 10-15. Figures 7-9 with their corresponding equations respectively.



Lau Math 20/30 IB SL Portfolio II (Fish Production) - 12




Figure 16. Both models put together.


Trends

As mentioned before, the trend from the fish caught at sea was slowly decreasing while the fish
produced from fish farms increased exponentially. As fish farms continue to produce more fish, the less
the need for catching fish from the sea. Fish farms can safely produce the fish needed on the market
without endangering species. These farms are environments where the number of fish produced and
killed must be controlled or else the farm would fail, whereas no government can control how much fish
is fished from the seas. Also, it takes much less effort to produce from a fish farm than to catch a fish.
Weather, equipment cost, and time it takes to catch fish all come into effect for fishermen, whereas in a
fish farm, it is also in a controlled environment where the mother company supplies everything they
need. Another reason that fish farms are growing in popularity is due to advancing technology. With this
new tech, fish produced from fish farms are more likely to be higher in quality (better genetics, more
variety), and therefore, a higher demand for fish from farms.


Conclusion

Using the trend derived from the models, with fish from the sea slowly decreasing and fish from fish
farms increasing exponentially, a possible future trend is the continuation of both trends. Due to the
exponential increase of the production of fish farms, it is likely that in some point in the future, fish
produced from farms overtake and replace the fish from seas as the main supplier of fish.