Appendix A - Market Study

East African Community (EAC)
Feasibility Study for a Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar es Salaam to Tanga (Tanzania) and Mombasa (Kenya)
Market Study
April 2011
Market study-Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar to Mombasa
Table of Contents
List of Abbreviations and Units 1 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 3 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 5 5.1 5.2 6 Background Scope of the project Involved parties Present infrastructure Extension of pipeline Dar es Salaam Market Dar es Salaam Projection Tanga market Other domestic markets Tanzania projection Rakgas gas demand forecast Tanzania Mombasa market Power sector gas demand Industrial gas demand Mombasa projections Rakgas gas demand forecast Mombasa Gas production and demand Gas production Gas demand References 2 4 5 5 6 6 8 10 11 11 11 12 14 14 16 17 18 19 19 19 22
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List of Abbreviations and Units

Abbreviations AfDB CNG EWURA ENPV ERR FIRR FNPV LNG NBV Orca PAT Songas TANESCO TPDC African Development Bank Compressed Natural Gas Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority, Tanzania Economic Net Present Value Economic Internal Rate of Return Financial Internal Rate of Return Financial Net Present Value Liquefied Natural Gas Netback Value Orca Exploration Group Inc. PanAfrican Energy Tanzania Songas Limited Tanzania Electric Supply Company Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation
Volumes scf scfd Mscf MMscf Bcf Nm^3 1 scf 1 scf Standard Cubic Feet Standard Cubic Feet per day 10^3 Standard Cubic Feet 10^6 Standard Cubic Feet 10^9 Standard Cubic Feet Normal Cubic Metre 0.0268 Nm^3 0.028 Sm^3
Energy kW 1 kJ 1 MJ 1 kWh 1 scf 1 Nm^3 1 Sm^3 10^3 Watt 1.055 BTU = 10^3 Joule 10^6 Joule 3.6 MJ 1.025 BTU 39.9 MJ 36.35 MJ
Background
This report is part of the Phase 2 outputs from the Feasibility Study for a Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar es Salaam to Tanga and Mombasa. The report comprises the output from Activities 4 and 7. Gas demand The potential demand is separated in demand for Dar es Salaam, demand for Tanga, and demand for Mombasa. The Dar es Salaam market is not relevant as such for the feasibility study of the extension of the gas pipeline from Dar es Salaam to Mombasa. However, the market study is used to determine if the there will be sufficient supply of gas and capacity in existing (and decided) infrastructure, to cover the domestic demand in Tanzania and expected exports to Kenya. The market study for Dar es Salaam is mainly based on information from EAC1, TPDC2, TANESCO3, Songas and ORCA Exploration Group4, as well as information from Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority (EWURA). So far there is only little information available about the potential demand in Tanga, and no information about the potential demand in Arusha and Moshi. The demand for Mombasa is mainly based on information from Ministry of Energy and the Kenya LNG Study5and the Least Cost Power Development Plan6. Gas supply The potential supply of gas from Songo Songo is based on information from the operator of the gas field at Songo Songo7. The Market Study was submitted to counterpart by end of October 2010 for commenting. The comments received have been incorporated in this version.
The East African Power Master Plan Study Pre-feasibility Study of Gas Pipeline Development, Rakgas Tanzania Limited, 25 November 2009 as well as power point presentation of potential gas demend in Tanzania 3 TANESCO website 4 Strategic Growth, Annual Report 2009, Orca Exploration Group Inc. 5 Kenya LNG Study Phase 1Final Report, Ministry of Energy, Republic of Kenya 2010 6 Least Cost Power Development Plan, Study Period 2010-2030, Ministry of Energy Kenya, 31 March 2010 7 See 4.
2 1
Comments from counterparts
2
2.1
Scope of the project

Involved parties
Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC), which is a state owned company, owns the reserves in Songo Songo jointly with PanAfrican Energy Tanzania (PAT). There is a Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) between TPDC and PAT. A proportion of the Songo Songo gas, called Protected Gas, is sold to Songas Limited (Songas) under a 20 year gas agreement. Songas Limited (Songas) is the owner of the wells, the gas processing plant and the pipeline from Songo Songo to Ubungo. Songas is the operator of the high pressure pipeline system and the Ubungo power plant. Shareholders of Songas are Globeleq, TPDC, TANESCO, Tanzania Development Finance Company Limited (TDFL) and FMO from the Netherlands. ORCA Exploration (Orca) operates in Tanzania through its wholly owned subsidiary PanAfrican Energy Tanzania (PAT). Orca/PAT and TPDC have an exclusive right to produce and market Additional Gas (see section 3.1.2), which is all gas reserves from Songo Songo in excess of Protected Gas (see section 3.1.1). Orca/PAT has been contracted by Songas to operate the wells and the gas processing plant and Orca/PAT owns and operates the gas distribution system in Dar es Salaam (Ringmain). Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (TANESCO) is a state owned power production, transmission and distribution company. TANESCO is shareholder of Songas and buys electricity from the Songas owned Ubungo Power Plant according to a Power Purchase Agreement. TANESCO also buys Additional Gas from Orca/PAT for operation of the TANESCO owned power plants at Ubungo and Tagete. Globeleq is the principal shareholder of Songas, through the financing subsidiary Globeleq East Africa Capital Limited.
2.2
2.2.1
Present infrastructure
Initial project
Reserves
The gas is produced from the Songo Songo main field with an estimated reserve GIIP of 1345 Bcf by the end of 2009. The infrastructure that processes and transports the gas from the Songo Songo field to Ubungo near Dar es Salaam was commissioned in July 20048. The infrastructure comprises a gas processing facility on Songo Songo with two gas processing trains; a 25 kilometres 12" offshore pipeline from the field to the Somanga Funga Landfall; a 207 kilometres 16" onshore pipeline to the Ubungo power plant; a 16 kilometres 8" lateral pipeline to the Wazo Hill cement plant.
Infrastructure
The gas processing facility on Songo Songo has a capacity of 2* 35 MMscfd. The original specifications of the pipeline from Songo Songo Island to Ubungo would allow a capacity of approximately 65 MMscfd. During the development Government of Tanzania decided to increase the dimension to allow for a capacity of 105 MMscfd. GOT borrowed USD 4.386 million from IDA to finance the increase in pipeline capacity from Songo Songo to Ubungo (Over-sizing). Distribution The low pressure distribution system comprises 50 kilometres of low pressure pipeline in Dar es Salaam, four pressure reduction stations and two separate connections to the 16" high pressure pipeline.
2.2.2 Expansion project During 2009 Songas has proposed a new long term infrastructure expansion project comprising two new gas processing trains and pipeline compression to increase the throughput capacity to 144 MMscfd9.
2.3
Extension of pipeline
The scope of this study is the extension of the pipeline from Ubungo to Mombasa.
8 9
Strategic Growth, Annual Report 2009, Orca Exploration Group Inc. Ibid p. 19
The problem about sufficient transport capacity from Songo Songo to Ubungo will not be addressed in this feasibility study. In the report on "Methodology for Financial and Economic Analysis" it is assumed that the gas transported to Mombasa is charged a transport tariff for transport from Songo Songo to Ubungo similar to the processing and transport tariff charged to Additional Gas.
Dar es Salaam Market
The market in Dar es Salaam consists of power plants and industrial consumers. In the following the demand in Dar is assessed with the purpose to identify assumptions for the Mombasa market to be assessed in section 5. The Dar es Salaam market is separated in Protected Gas and Additional Gas.
3.1.1 Protected gas Under the Gas Processing and Transportation Agreement signed in 2001, the Protected Gas from Songo Songo is sold under a 20 year gas agreement to Songas for: Operation of turbines at the Ubungo power plant (182MW); Onward sale to the Tanzania Portland Cement Company (TPCC) for the operation of kilns 2 and 3 at the Wazo Hill cement plant; Electrification of villages along the pipeline.
The gas agreement is running from July 31, 2004 until July 31, 2024. The consumption of Protected Gas is 80.5% of total gas consumption at the Ubungo complex.
3.1.2 Additional gas Additional gas is sold by Orca/PAT to: Operation of turbines at the Ubungo power plant (42 MW); Onward sale to TANESCO Ubungo power plant (102 MW) in operation August 2008; Onward sale to TANESCO Tegeta power plant (45 MW) commissioned in November 2009; Onward sale to TPCC for operation of kiln 4 at the Wazo Hill cement plant in operation March 2009;
Onward sale to 32 industries and 1 hotel by the end of 2009. About 10 potential industrial customers are waiting for connection10.
The consumption of Additional Gas is 19.5% of total gas consumption at the Ubungo complex. By the end of 2009 there was 189 MW of installed gas fired generation in Tanzania that is being powered by Additional Gas.
Table 1 Assumptions for power sector gas demand in Dar es Salaam
Installed capacity MW Ubungo (Protected Gas) TANESCO Ubungo TANESCO Tegeta

Source: TANESCO and TPDC
Load factor % 185 102 45 77 70 80
Efficiency
Commission year
% 40 40 Jan 2009 40 Oct 2009
3.1.3 Projections for the power sector The power plant IPTL and Dowans are not converted to gas because of a dispute11. We assume that IPTL will be connected in 2012 and Dowans two years later in 2014. A new power plant Kinyerezi could be connected in 2017.
Table 2 Assumptions about power plants to be connected
Installed capacity
Load factor
Efficiency
Assumed connection year
MW IPTL Dowans Kinyerezi

Source: TANESCO and TPDC
% 100 112 240 70 70 70
% 40 40 34 2012 2014 2017
10 11
Information from TPDC Strategic Growth, Annual Report 2009, Orca Exploration Group Inc.
10
The connection years are based on the assumption that there will be financial as well as labour force limitations to undertake several large infrastructure projects at the same time.
3.1.4 Projections for industrial sector TPDC has informed that about 10 potential industrial consumers are waiting for connection12 Orca/PAT do not expect major increase in the number of industrial customers but an increase in the demand from already connected customers. Based on the application from Songas for an adjustment of the gas processing and transportation tariff, EWURA13 made a forecast for industrial consumption from 2010 to 2014.
3.2
Dar es Salaam Projection
We operate with 3 scenarios for Dar es Salaam. Dar Low: Power sector demand for gas until 2017 as described in section 3.1.3 and then constant, i.e. further increases in electricity demand will be based on hydro power and other fuels. Industrial sector demand for gas until 2014 as described in section 3.1.4 and then constant.
Dar Medium: Power sector demand for gas until 2017 as described in section 3.1.3 (same as for Dar Low) and then the demand will increase with an assumed growth of 1% per year until 2035. Industrial sector demand for gas until 2014 as described in section 3.1.4 (same as Dar Low) and then the demand will increase with an assumed growth of 1% per year until 2035.
Dar High: Power sector demand for gas until 2017 as described in section 3.1.3 (same as for Dar Low) and then the demand will increase with an assumed growth of 2% per year until 2035.
Information from TPDC Memorandum on Songas Processing and Transportation Tariff Adjustment, EWURA, order No. 09-004.
13
12
11
Industrial sector demand for gas until 2014 as described in section 3.1.4 (same as Dar Low) and then the demand will increase with an assumed growth of 2% per year until 2035.
The assumed growth rates are based on growth in the demand of gas of 1% (medium) and 2% (high) per year. This does not mean that the growth in the economy in general or in that region is limited to a growth of 1 or 2 %. An economic growth in a region of 5-10% does not necessarily increase the gas demand with 5-10%.
3.3
Tanga market
So far there is not much information about the potential market in Tanga. According to the Minutes of Meeting from the Inception meeting September 2010, TPDC has informed that the industrial market in Tanga is around 8-10 MMscfd of which the cement plant will be the main consumer. EAC has in March 2011 informed about considerations of a new power plant of 100 MW in Tanga. Due to the timing of this information the 100 MW are not included in the calculations.
3.4
Other domestic markets
Gas supply to the markets in Arusha and Moshi will depend on the feasibility of the main pipeline from Dar es Salaam. The demands from the potential markets in Arusha and Moshi are estimated to be small and will not as such influence the decision about implementing the main pipeline. The market in Bagamoyo may be supplied depending on the routing of the main pipeline.
3.5
Tanzania projection
The total domestic demand for gas comprising Dar es Salaam and Tanga is presented below (excluding the plans on a new 100 MW power plant in Tanga).
Table 3 Potential gas demand in Dar es Salaam
2009
2035 Low
2035 High MMscfd 212 16 228
MMscf MMscfd MMscf Power sector Industry Total 19,725 3,296 23,021 54 9 63 46,227 4,974 51,201
MMscfd MMscf 127 14 140 77,357 5,749 83,106
12
The daily demand is calculated as annual demand divided by 365. Songas is currently processing and transporting up to 70 MMscfd of natural gas to markets in Dar es Salaam14. With a market in Tanga of approximately 10 MMscfd15 the total 2035 domestic demand would be approximately 3,650 MMscfd (Low) and 6,108 MMscfd (High).
3.6
Rakgas gas demand forecast Tanzania
In November 2009, Rakgas Tanzania Limited presented a pre-feasibility study16 comprising a projection of the gas market in Tanzania and Kenya.
Table 4
Rakgas/PDC gas demand forecast Tanzania
MMscfd 1 Songo Songo customers 2 Additional 300 MW near Dar 3 300 MW in Tanga 4 Additional industrial Total 160 60 60 15 295
Comments: Re. 1: It is not possible to identify the power plants included as Songo Songo customers. An increase in gas consumption from 60 MMscfd to 160 MMscfd should correspond to an increase of around 500 MW new power generation capacity. IPTL and Dowans are around 210 MW together, which leaves almost 300 MW undocumented. Re. 2: We believe that the additional 300 MW near Dar is the 250 MW in Kinyerezi. Re. 3: The expected 300 MW thermal capacity in Tanga is not included in neither TANESCO planning nor EAC planning.
Application to EWURA for approval of a revised gas processing and transportation tariff, October 23, 2008. 15 Information from TPDC 16 Pre-feasibility Study of Gas Pipeline Development, Processing, Transportation and Distribution: Tanzania. PDC - Rakgas Tanzania Limited, 25 November 2009.
14
13
Re. 4: We find this a high estimate if it refers to additional industry but realistic if it is total industry. Reducing the Rakgas/PDC with 2*300 MW power generation capacity corresponding to around 120 MMscfd results in a total demand of 175 MMscfd from 2017. We have not made an appraisal of the Rakgas study but used it to double check available information.
14
Mombasa market
The basic source for information about the potential market in Mombasa is the LNG study17 and the Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP)18.
4.1
Power sector gas demand
4.1.1 Present potential gas demand According to the LCPDP there are four existing power plants in the Mombasa area that could be converted to gas. In addition one plant - Kipevu III - is expected to be commenced in 2011. The following general assumptions are made about the power plants:
Table 5 Assumptions for power sector gas demand in Mombasa
Installed capacity MW Kipevu I Kipevu II Tsavo Kipevu GT Rabai
Fuel type
Load factor %
Efficiency
Retirement year
% 80 80 40 40 2024 2019
75 Diesel 74 Diesel
60 Kerosene 90 Diesel
80 90
40 40
2014
Source: Least Cost Power Development Plan, Ministry of Energy March 2010.
Kenya LNG Study Phase 1Final Report, Ministry of Energy, Republic of Kenya 2010 Least Cost Power Development Plan, Study Period 2010-2030, Ministry of Energy Kenya, 31 March 2010
18
17
15
4.1.2 Future potential gas demand In addition to the commencement of Kipevu III in 2011, we assume that a new capacity of 300 MW is installed in 2014 and further 300 MW in 2017. A new 400 kV electricity transmission line is being constructed from Mombasa to Nairobi. The line shall transfer electricity from thermal power plants in coastal area to Nairobi. The power plants include the Kipevu III 120 MW as well as a proposed 300 MW coal fired plant expected to be commenced in 2014. The transmission line is being financed by Government of Kenya, African Development Bank, European Investment Bank and the French Development Agency19. The LCPDP have no details about the amount of conventional thermal power plant to be built in the period 2010-2030. In section 5.5.4 it is mentioned that gas turbines are modelled at an estimated cost of 833 USD/kW which is a competitive unit cost compared to other thermal solutions. The LCPDP concludes that "Though these plants have low initial capital outlay, they have high operational costs subject to fluctuations in international crude prices"20 It is assumed that the future value of CO2 emission will make electricity produced on natural gas competitive with electricity produced on coal and the 600 MW expected for Nairobi is included in the projection.
Table 6 Assumptions for new power plants in Mombasa area
Installed capacity MW Kipevu III New 1 New 2
Fuel type
Load factor %
Efficiency
Commencing year
% 90 90 90 50 50 50 2011 2014 2017
120 Diesel 300 Coal 300 Coal
www.powergenworldwide.com August 2010 Least Cost Power Development Plan, Study Period 2010-2030, Ministry of Energy Kenya, 31 March 2010, page 66.
20
19
16
4.2
Industrial gas demand
4.2.1 Present potential gas demand According to the LNG study21 a number of large industries are identified as potential gas customers. We assume that these industries can convert to gas rather fast so they will be ready to connect when the gas is available in Mombasa.
Table 7 Fuel consumption in existing industries
Fuel type Athi River Cement Mabati Rolling Mills Mabati Rolling Mills - heating Bamburi cement plant Milly Glass Works Milly Glass Works Coal
Unit Metric tons
Unit per year 2009 125,000
LPG
Cubic metres
3,927
Electricity
GWh
131
Coal
Metric tons
100,740
Diesel
litres
5,666,667
LPG
Cubic metres
2,655
Source: Kenya LNG study, 2010
4.2.2 Future potential gas demand There have been significant variations in GDP in constant prices in Kenya during the last 10 years. According to IMF the GDP growth in 2007 was 7.1% while the growth in 2009 was 2.5%. The real growth of GDP for 2010 is expected by IMF to be around 4%. The LNG study assumes that industrial consumption will increase with 5% per year. The LNG study operates with a low and a high case for industrial demand projection. The low case includes conversion of diesel and electricity consumers mentioned industries. The high case includes conversion as in the low case supplemented by the coal consumers. The LNG study assumes that the industrial growth in the region will continue to grow at approximately 5% per year
21
Kenya LNG Study Phase 1Final Report, Ministry of Energy, Republic of Kenya 2010
17
which will be directly reflected in the consumption of end-users22. We find this growth rate high as an average for the next 20 years and have reduced the rate to 2% per year in our forecast. We assume that all potential consumers mentioned in section 4.2.1 (also coal fired) are converting to natural gas when available. After conversion we operate with three scenarios as described in section 4.3. It is further assumed that potential industrial customers will be offered a discount in tariff to compensate for conversion costs and provide an incentive (see the report Methodology for Financial and Economic Analysis section 4.3).
4.3
Mombasa projections
We operate with 3 scenarios: Mombasa Low: Power sector demand for gas until 2017 will increase as described in section 5.1.2 (which includes the 600MW expected to be transported to Nairobi) and then constant until 2035, i.e. the further increase in electricity demand will be covered by other sources than gas. Industrial sector demand for gas comprises a conversion of the potential demand described in 4.2.2 and then constant.
Mombasa Medium: Power sector demand for gas until 2017 will increase as described in section 4.1.2 (same as Mombasa Low) and then increase will an assumed annual growth of 1% until 2035. Industrial sector demand will be built up as described in section 4.2.2 (same as Mombasa Low) and then increase with an assumed annual growth of 1% until 2035.
Mombasa High: Power sector demand for gas until 2017 will increase as described in section 4.1.2 (same as Mombasa Low) and then increase will an assumed annual growth of 2% until 2035. Industrial sector demand will be built up as described in section 4.2.2 (same as Mombasa Low) and then increase with an assumed annual growth of 2% until 2035.
Kenya LNG Study Phase 1Final Report, Ministry of Energy, Republic of Kenya 2010, page 54
22
18
The 600 MW to be installed in the Mombasa area with export to Nairobi will have an expected consumption of 33,000 MMscf or 90 MMscfd which is more than half of the Mombasa low scenario power sector demand from 2017. The 2009 figures in table 8 is what the demand would be if potential consumers could connect to a gas pipeline.
Table 8 Potential gas demand in Mombasa
2009
2035 Low MMscfd 153.9 16.9
2035 High MMscf 94,027 10,321 MMscfd 257.6 28.3 285.9
MMscf MMscfd MMscf Power sector Industry Total 19,008 6,167 25,176 52.1 16.9 69.0 56,188 6,167 62,355
170.8 104,347
The daily demand is calculated as annual demand divided by 365. Without the 600 MW power plant the low scenario demand would be reduced to approximately 29,271 MMscf or 80.2 MMscfd in 2035.
4.4
Rakgas gas demand forecast Mombasa
In November 2009, Rakgas Tanzania Limited presented a pre-feasibility study23 comprising a projection of the gas market in Tanzania and Kenya.
Table 9 Rakgas/PDC gas demand forecast Kenya
MMscfd Power sector Industry Total 60 40 100
Rakgas/PDC assumes that the planned 300 MW coal fired capacity will be replaced by natural gas. The industrial demand is expected to be mainly from the cement factory.
Pre-feasibility Study of Gas Pipeline Development, Processing, Transportation and Distribution: Tanzania. PDC - Rakgas Tanzania Limited, 25 November 2009.
23
19
5
5.1
Gas production and demand

Gas production
The operator Orca24 has informed that by 31December 2009 there was a production capacity of 217 MMscfd of which a required peak supply of approximately 45 MMscfd of Protected Gas. Management's Best Case assessment of Gas Initially in Place is 1,571 Bcf for the Songo Songo Field and Songo Songo North, with additional 727 Bcf in Songo Songo West. In total approximately 2,300 Bcf25.
5.2
Gas demand
The total projected demand from Dar es Salaam and Mombasa for the period 2012 to 2035 is presented below.
Table 10 Total gas demand 2012-2035
Low Bcf Dar and Tanga Mombasa Total 1,209 1,215 2,424
Medium Bcf 1,382 1,435 2,817
High Bcf 1,597 1,699 3,295
Even with the low scenarios there will be a critical balance between potential gas supply and potential demand. The low scenario will be reduced by approximately 662 Bcf if the 600 MW power capacity expected in Mombasa for electricity supply to Nairobi is not connected to gas. In that case there would be sufficient gas supply from Songo Songo. But with the information of the vast
24 25
Strategic Growth, 2009 Annual Report, Orca Exploration Group Inc. Ibid
20
gas reserves in Mnazi Bay there should be sufficient of gas to supply the demand in all scenarios. The demand in Dar es Salaam and Mombasa will at the project start be at the same amount around 25,000 MMscf in each city, but the market in Mombasa has a higher share of potential industrial consumers. In general industrial consumers have a higher willingness to pay compared to the power sector, but among the industries in Mombasa are industries that today use coal as fuel. In the low scenario the demand from the power sector in Mombasa increases more than the power sector in Dar es Salaam which is caused be an assumed connection of additional 720 MW. However, this increase is mainly caused by the 600 MW (33,000 MMscf) that is expected to supply Nairobi through the new transmission line and these power plants are - so far - assumed by Government of Kenya to be coal fired with a corresponding lower willingness to pay depending on the future price on carbon credits.
Figure 1
100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 -
Gas market in Dar
Dar Market, MMscf
Dar, Low growth (constant from 2017)
Dar, 2% growth
Dar, 1% growth
21
Figure 2
140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 -
Gas market in Mombasa
Mombasa Market, MMscf
Mombasa, 2% growth
Mombasa, 1% growth
Mombasa, low growth
22
References
East African Community: East African Power Master Plan East African Community Secretariat, Report of the 17th Meeting of the Energy Committee, Arusha, June 2010. East African Petroleum Conference 2007: Songo Songo and Mnazi Bay Gas Projects: Contribution to Economic Development, Eng. Joyce Kisamo, TPDC, March 2007. Kenya: Kenya LNG Study, Phase 1 Final Report, Ministry of Energy, Republic of Kenya, 2010. Kenya Vision 2030, Sector Plan for Energy 2008-2012, Government of the Republic of Kenya, 2008. Least Cost Power Development Plan, Study Period 2010-2030, Ministry of Energy, Republic of Kenya, 2010. Power Situation in Kenya, Hindpal S. Jabbal, Energy Regulatory Commission, August 2009. Tanzania: Application to EWURA for approval of a revised gas processing and transportation tariff, 23 October 2008. Memorandum on Songas Processing and Transportation Tariff Adjustment, EWURA order No. 09-004.27 February 2009. Pre-feasibility Study of Gas Pipeline Development, Rakgas Tanzania Limited, 25 November 2009
23
Strategic Growth, Annual Report 2009, Orca Exploration Group Inc. TANESCO website Tanzania Gas Development and Utilization, Eng. Joyce Kisamo, Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation, 2009. Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation. The Export of Gas and Electricity from Tanzania to Kenya, Pre-Feasibility Study, February 1992. TPDC power point presentations.

Appendix A - Market Study

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East African Community (EAC)

Market study-Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar to Mombasa

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Market study-Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar to Mombasa

List of Abbreviations and Units

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Market study-Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar to Mombasa

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Market study-Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar to Mombasa

Comments from counterparts

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Market study-Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar to Mombasa

Scope of the project

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Market study-Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar to Mombasa

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Market study-Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar to Mombasa

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Market study-Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar to Mombasa

Dar es Salaam Market

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Market study-Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar to Mombasa

Installed capacity MW Ubungo (Protected Gas) TANESCO Ubungo TANESCO Tegeta

Load factor % 185 102 45 77 70 80

% 40 40 Jan 2009 40 Oct 2009

Assumed connection year

MW IPTL Dowans Kinyerezi

% 100 112 240 70 70 70

% 40 40 34 2012 2014 2017

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Dar es Salaam Projection

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Market study-Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar to Mombasa

Other domestic markets

2035 High MMscfd 212 16 228

MMscfd MMscf 127 14 140 77,357 5,749 83,106

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Market study-Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar to Mombasa

Rakgas gas demand forecast Tanzania

Rakgas/PDC gas demand forecast Tanzania

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Market study-Natural Gas Pipeline from Dar to Mombasa

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Power sector gas demand

Installed capacity MW Kipevu I Kipevu II Tsavo Kipevu GT Rabai

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Installed capacity MW Kipevu III New 1 New 2

% 90 90 90 50 50 50 2011 2014 2017

120 Diesel 300 Coal 300 Coal

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Industrial gas demand

Unit Metric tons

Unit per year 2009 125,000

Source: Kenya LNG study, 2010

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