Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
Dealers Diary
The Indian market is expected to open flat today tracking marginally positive
opening trades in the SGX Nifty and most of the Asian indices. Asian markets are
trading slightly higher on speculation that the next Bank of Japan governor will
deploy aggressive monetary easing.
The US market showed a strong move back to the upside during the trading
session on Friday. The markets saw a notable rebound as some traders used the
recent pullback as an opportunity to pick up stocks at somewhat reduced levels.
Positive sentiment was also generated by easing concerns about the Federal
Reserve paring back its monetary stimulus following comments from St. Louis Fed
President James Bullard. Most of the European markets finished in positive territory
on Friday, on account of the continued strength in the German IFO business
confidence data. The optimism generated by the number overshadowed the
announcement that European banks will make a smaller than expected repayment
of LTRO loans.
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(0.0)
(8.3) 19,317
Nifty
(0.0)
(2.0)
5,850
MID CAP
0.0
1.6
6,609
SMALL CAP
0.1
7.1
6,565
BSE HC
0.8
62.2
8,020
BSE PSU
(0.3)
(20.8)
7,228
BANKEX
0.2
23.2 13,855
AUTO
(0.6)
(59.7) 10,701
METAL
(0.5)
(51.1)
9,561
OIL & GAS
0.6
52.6
9,060
BSE IT
0.8
54.6
6,605
(Pts)
(Close)
Global Indices
Chg (%)
Dow Jones
0.9
Meanwhile, Indian bourses ended on a flat note, as gains in realty, IT, healthcare
and oil/gas stocks offset losses in FMCG, auto and metal stocks. Investors adopted
a cautious stance ahead of the Union Budget this week, amid mixed global cues.
NASDAQ
1.0
30.3
3,162
FTSE
0.7
44.2
6,336
Nikkei
0.7
76.8 11,386
Markets Today
Hang Seng
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,336 / 5,853 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,383 19,448 / 5,871 5,891 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,336 / 5,853 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,271 19,224 / 5,833 5,815 levels.
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
19,224
19,271
19,336
19,383
19,448
NIFTY
5,815
5,833
5,853
5,871
5,891
News Analysis
Straits Times
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
(0.5) (124.2) 22,782

0.0
0.5
3,288
(0.5)
(11.8)
2,314
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
4.5
2.3
$53.5
WIT
4.0
0.4
$9.5
IBN
1.1
0.5
$42.2
HDB
0.5
0.2
$39.2
Shanghai Com
Indian ADR
Advances / Declines
RBI issues new banks licensing guidelines

3QFY2013 Result Review Metal Sector
120.0 14,001
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,043
740
Declines
1,072
752
879
88
Unchanged
Net Inflows (February 21, 2013)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
4,470
3,315
1,155
21,993
44,223
533
692
(159)
(1,423)
(6,137)
MFs
FII Derivatives (February 22, 2013)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
1,247
1,946
(699)
11,168
Stock Futures
2,715
2,343
371
30,625
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
1,037
5.5
Gujarat Fluo
297
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Strides Arco
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Jet Air India
527
(5.8)
5.4
United Breweries
617
(4.6)
Idea Cellular
114
4.8
Astrazeneca Phar
1,066
(4.0)
Bharti Airtel
310
4.6
ING Vysya Bank
542
(3.1)
DLF
281
3.2
Exide Inds
126
(2.8)
www.angelbroking.com
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
1,725
NSE
9,919
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
RBI issues new banks licensing guidelines

The issuance of new banks licensing norms by the RBI is a game-changing event
for the banking industry. Considering the final form of the guidelines and desire
expressed by the various corporates to get a bank license, we would expect at least
eight to ten very serious players, with deep-pockets, getting into the sector, which
would increase the competitive intensity, quite substantially in the sector. Currently,
few private banks are earning RoEs well in excess of 20%, which clearly reflects the
strong demand and lot of space for new entrants in the sector. Also considering
the impeding application of Basel-III and difficulties faced by PSU banks to get
capital support from the Govt., there is enough room for fresh capital to be
pumped into the sector. Nevertheless, the competitive intensity in the sector is set to
increase and in the medium term, we expect a significant market share loss for
PSU banks (specifically the mid-sized ones).
We do not rule out the possibility of some moderation in the valuation premium
that private banks have been getting; however, we would await some clarity on
that front, as that would depend on the plans formulated by the new entrants. We
also expect the demand for priority sector loans from NBFCs to go up, as new
entrants, in our view, would certainly depend on them for meeting their targets, as
many private banks, even after being in operation for a fairly long period, are
finding it difficult to meet their targets and still rely on loan sourced by NBFCs. We
also expect the event to be positive for old private banks considering the increased
possibilities of a merger/acquisition.
Guidelines in brief:
I) Eligible promoters:
Entities/groups in the private sector, entities in public sector and Non-Banking
Financial Companies (NBFCs), fulfilling criteria mentioned hereunder, shall be
eligible to set up a bank through a wholly-owned Non-Operative Financial
Holding Company (NOFHC).
a) should have a past record of sound credentials and integrity, should be
financially sound and have a successful track record of running their business
for at least 10 years. Additionally, the Central bank may seek feedback on
these aspects, from other regulators, enforcement and investigative agencies,
as deemed appropriate.
b) their business model/culture should not be misaligned with the banking model
and their group activities which are speculative in nature and subject to high
asset price volatility, must not potentially put the bank and the banking system
at risk. Hence, applications of business groups having significant part of their
business activities in businesses like stock broking, real estate etc will get
thoroughly scrutinized to assess any adverse impact on the bank and the
banking system.
II) Corporate structure and other requirements for the NOFHC:

RBI should be satisfied, that the corporate structure of the NOFHC, should lead to
ring fencing of the financial services entities held by the NOFHC and should not
obstruct its ability to supervise the bank, the NOFHC, and its Subsidiaries /JVs /
Associates on a consolidated basis.
a) Individual voting rights restricted to 10%: In the capital structure of the whollyowned NOFHC, shareholding of individuals (belonging to the Promoter Group,
along with his relatives and along with entities in which he and / or his relatives
hold not less than 50% stake), shall be restricted to 10% of the total voting
equity shares, whereas companies (forming part of the Promoter Group,
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
wherein the public hold at least 51% stake) shall hold a minimum 51% of the
total voting equity shares.
b) Ownership transfer outside group prohibited, while within group allowed
subject to prior approval: Transfer of shares of the NOFHC to any entity
outside the Promoter Group, is prohibited and further, prior approval of the RBI
is required, in case, any change in shareholding within the Promoter Group
results in a shareholder acquiring more than 5% voting equity capital of the
NOFHC.
c) NOBFC to hold all equity of group in the bank as well as other regulated
financial services entities: Any equity investment in the bank and other financial
entities, by the Promoter / Promoter Group should be only through the
NOFHC. Apart from the bank, the NOFHC will hold all the other financial
services entities of the Group regulated by RBI or other financial sector
regulators, wherein the group has a significant influence or control.
d) NOHFC cannot set up any new financial service entity for three years: The
NOFHC shall not be permitted to set up any new financial services entity for at
least three years from the date of commencement of its business.
e) NOHFC to be registered as NBFC: The NOFHC will be registered as a NBFC
with the RBI and will be governed by a separate set of directions issued by RBI.
The financial entities held by the NOFHC will be governed by the applicable
statutes and regulations prescribed by the respective financial sector regulators.
III) Corporate structure and other requirements for the bank:

a) Initial capital requirement and shareholding norms for promoter group: The
bank shall have initial minimum paid-up voting equity capital of `500cr, of
which the NOFHC shall initially hold a minimum 40%, which shall be locked in
for a period of five years from the date of commencement of business of the
bank. However, the shareholding of the NOFHC in the bank shall be brought
down to 40% within 3 years, to 20% within 10 years and to 15% within 12
years. The capital requirements for the regulated financial services entities held
by the NOFHC shall be as prescribed by the respective sectoral regulators.
b) Foreign shareholding to be restricted to 49% for first 5 years: The aggregate
non-resident shareholding in the new banks shall be restricted to 49% of the
paid-up voting equity capital for the first 5 years from the date of licensing of
the bank, after which it would be as per the extant FDI policy i.e upto 74%.
c) A single entity/group of related entities shall not hold more than 10% of voting
rights: Apart from NOFHC, no single entity or group of related entities shall
have, shareholding or control, directly or indirectly, of more than 10% of the
paid-up voting equity capital of the bank. Further, prior approval of RBI is
required for any acquisition of shares which will take the aggregate holding of
an individual / entity / group to 5% or more of the paid-up voting equity capital
of the bank.
d) Additional conditions for additional capital raising in case of non-financial
business groups: The bank promoted by Groups having more than 40%
assets/income from non-financial business will require RBIs prior approval for
raising paid-up voting equity capital beyond `1,000cr for every block of
`500cr.
e) Minimum CAR of 13% for 3 years: The bank shall be required to maintain a
minimum capital adequacy ratio of 13% of its risk weighted assets (RWA) for a
minimum period of 3 years from the date of commencement of its operation.
f) At least 25% branches in unbanked areas: The bank shall open at least 25% of
its branches in unbanked areas (population up to 9,999 as per the latest
census) and they shall also comply with the priority sector lending targets and
sub-targets as applicable to the existing domestic banks. In our view, this would
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
impact the profitability of the new banks, but would be a step towards financial
inclusion objective of the RBI.
g) Listing within 3 years: The bank shall get its shares listed on the stock
exchanges within three years of the commencement of its business.
IV) Exposure norms

NOFHC-standalone: NOFHC shall not have any credit and investment (equity or
debt capital instrument) exposure, either to any entity belonging to the Promoter
Group (except those held under it), or to any entity outside the Group including
other NOFHCs or other banks, financial and non-financial entities.
NOFHC-Consolidated: As applicable to bank groups, the NOFHC shall adhere to
all the exposure norms on the consolidated basis, such as single and group
borrower exposure limits, capital market exposure limit etc. The consolidated
NOFHCs investments in the capital instruments issued by banking, financial and
insurance entities outside its Group together with the unconsolidated financial and
insurance entities within the Group should not be more than 10% of its
consolidated capital funds.
Bank: The bank cannot take any credit and investments (equity or debt capital
instruments) exposure on the Promoters / Promoter Group entities or individuals
associated with the Promoter Group or the NOFHC. It should neither invest in the
equity / debt capital instruments of any financial entities under the NOFHC, nor in
the equity of other NOFHCs. Further, its investments in the entities engaged in
financial and non-financial activities, outside the Promoter Group would be subject
to a limit of 10% of the investee entitys paid-up share capital or 10% of the banks
paid-up share capital and reserves, whichever is less, and the aggregate of all
such investments should not exceed 20% of the banks paid-up share capital and
reserves.
Other financial entities held by the NOFHC: Similar to the bank, other financial
entities held by NOFHC shall not have any credit and investments (equity/debt
capital instruments) exposure to the Promoters / Promoter Group entities or
individuals associated with the Promoter Group or the NOFHC. They also shall
neither make any investment in the equity / debt capital instruments amongst
themselves nor in the equity instruments of other NOFHCs.
VI) Additional conditions for NBFCs promoting/converting into a bank:
a) The Promoters / Promoter Groups with an existing NBFC, if considered eligible
for a bank license, will have to structure the NOFHC, the bank and the NBFC,
in such a way that the activities which the bank is eligible to undertake
departmentally are carried under the bank and other ineligible activities are
divested into other entities.
b) In respect of its existing branches in the Tier 2 to 6 centers, RBI may allow the
bank to take over and convert them into bank branches, however, existing
branches in Tier-1 centers may be allowed to convert only with the prior
approval of RBI and subject to the existing rules and maintaining the above
mentioned rule of 25% of the bank branches in unbanked rural centers.
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
3QFY2013 Result Review Metal Sector

Subdued top-line performance: Most of the companies under our coverage
reported a disappointing top-line performance during 3QFY2013. Among steel
players SAIL and Tata Steel saw a net sales decline of 0.9% and 3.0% yoy,
respectively, whereas JSW Steel reported a 5.3% yoy improvement in net sales. All
the non-ferrous players reported an increase in net sales on the back of higher
volumes; however, their top-line growth was lower than expectations. Among the
miners, except for Coal India, all other companies top-lines declined and their
volumes were below our estimates.
Margins remain under pressure: Among the steel companies, SAIL reported a
28.0% fall in operating profits due to higher labor costs and other expenses.
JSW Steels EBITDA grew 4.9% yoy which was in line with increase in sales. In the
non-ferrous sector, except for Hindustan Zinc (HZL) and Nalco, all the remaining
companies reported a fall in operating profits on the back of lower realizations
and rising costs. Among mining companies, both Coal India and NMDC faced
severe margin pressures during the quarter. NMDCs margins were hit by lower
volumes while Coal Indias EBITDA declined by 4.3% yoy despite a 12.9% growth
in net sales due to higher power and fuel costs and other expenditure.
Outlook on steel: Globally, sea-borne iron ore prices declined sharply during
April-August 2012; however, from the August lows, there has been a sharp
rise in prices (by over 60%). The current iron ore prices are in the range of
US$150-160/tonne. Going forward, we expect iron ore prices to decline as
significant newer capacities by global iron ore giants such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto
and Vale hit the sea-borne markets. Domestic iron ore prices have remained firm
on account of mining ban in Karnataka and governments stricter stance on illegal
mining in the mineral-rich states of Odisha and Goa. Contracted coking coal prices
have declined steeply over the past one year; thus is expected to benefit Indian
steelmakers during FY2014.
Outlook on non-ferrous: Non-ferrous companies are expected to continue to face
a double whammy of declining product prices coupled with higher input costs.
Base metal prices have declined steeply over the past one year; we expect
realizations growth to remain muted during FY2014 (partially offset by INR
depreciation against the USD). Further, although several aluminium companies
(globally) have announced production cuts, we are yet to see any meaningful
decline in production. Thus, lower realizations coupled with higher and sticky
prices of key inputs are expected to hit margins of non-ferrous companies during
FY2014 in our view. Nevertheless, we expect prices to improve in FY2015 as
announced production cuts restore demand-supply mismatch during FY2015.
Selectively we like some stocks: Metal stocks have underperformed over the
past one year on account of global overcapacity, subdued domestic demand,
decreasing prices, rising input costs and delays in obtaining procedural clearances
for mines. Nevertheless, we believe that the recent fall has left some stocks
undervalued. We like companies with captive assets, strong visibility on earnings
growth over the coming few years, low leverage levels and inexpensive valuations.
Hence, our top picks are NMDC, Hindustan Zinc and Tata Steel.
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
Economic and Political News
Govt. mulls new deposit scheme to bring down physical gold demand
Govt. expects `43,000cr from spectrum sale at base price
Three firms eye `12,000cr through tax-free bonds
SAIL, NALCO, MMTC stake sale in current fiscal: Finance Ministry
Corporate News
Telecom firms' license renewal be decided in 2 weeks: DoT to HC

FIPB to consider AirAsia's India entry on March 6
Sterlite Industries to double capacity, to invest `2,500cr
United Bank, Punjab & Sind Bank lower minimum lending rates
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
Result Calendar
Date
Company
February 25, 2013
Styrolution
February 26, 2013
Ranbaxy
February 27, 2013
Bosch India, Goodyear
February 28, 2013
Mphasis
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
February 26, 2013

February 27, 2013
February 28, 2013
March 1, 2013
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
8:30PM
US
New home sales
S.A./ 1985=100
Feb
58.60
62.00
Thousands
Jan
369.00
380.00
3:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Feb F
(23.60)
(23.60)
3:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q P
--
--
7:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Feb 23
362.00
360.00
3:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Jan
2.20
2.00
2:25PM
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Feb
(16.00)
--
7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
4Q S
(0.10)
0.50
11:00AM
India
Qtrly GDP YoY%
% Change
4Q
5.30
4.90
2:25PM
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb F
50.10
50.10
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb
50.80
51.00
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb
50.40
50.50
Value
Feb F
54.10
--
% Change
4Q P
(0.60)
--
% Ratio
Mar 7
0.50
0.50
Mar 7
0.75
--
6:30AM
China
March 3, 2013
2:25PM
Germany PMI Services
March 6, 2013
3:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
March 7, 2013
5:30PM
UK
6:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
5:29PM
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Feb
25.00
--
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Feb
157.00
150.00
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
Feb
7.90
7.90
March 8, 2013
March 9, 2013
March 11, 2013
March 12, 2013
March 14, 2013
March 15, 2013
March 19, 2013
BOE Announces rates
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Feb
2.00
--
11:00AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Feb
10.30
--
4:29PM
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Feb
6.10
--
4:29PM
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Feb
0.80
--
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jan
(1.70)
--
6:00PM
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Feb
0.20
--
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Feb
6.62
--
6:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Feb
--
--
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
Feb
(0.10)
--
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Feb
890.00
--
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Feb
925.00
--
3:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Feb
2.70
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Repo rate
Mar 19
7.75
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
Mar 19
4.00
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
Mar 19
6.75
--
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
11.2
9.0
10.0
7.6
8.2
6.0
8.0
6.7
5.7
6.1
4.3
4.0
5.3 5.5 5.3
3.5
2.0
2.5
2.0
1.0
Mfg. PMI
60.0
8.0
7.7
7.5
7.6
7.6
Services PMI
8.1
58.0
7.5
56.0
7.5
7.2
6.9
54.0
52.0
(%)
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Exports yoy growth
30.0
48.0
Jan-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
50.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
8.00
8.00
15.0
7.00
7.00
6.00
4.25
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
4.00
Jan-12
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
5.00
Dec-11
(30.0)
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
0.0
(15.0)
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
7.4
Jun-12
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
7.7
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
(4.0)
Feb-12
(2.0)
Jan-12
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
Source: CSO, Angel Research
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
8.3
8.0
9.2
8.5
7.5
4QFY09
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
121
2,360
1,466
1,686
14.8
14.8
7.0
8.1
17.3
15.0
3.7
3.1
22.6
22.5
1.7
1.5
United Phosphorus
Buy
125
170
5,533
8,421
9,263
16.5
16.5
15.0
17.0
8.3
7.4
1.2
1.1
15.6
15.5
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
280
323
4,784
2,983
3,477
16.1
16.1
18.5
21.6
15.1
13.0
4.4
3.4
32.9
29.1
1.5
1.4
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
89
97
4,488
13,066
14,503
11.5
11.8
13.0
14.5
6.8
6.2
1.3
1.1
21.0
19.4
0.5
0.5
Ashok Leyland
Buy
23
28
6,093
12,910
14,836
8.8
9.6
1.5
2.2
15.5
10.3
2.1
1.9
9.3
13.4
0.6
0.5
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
341
515
934
1,103
10.2
10.7
24.5
34.3
13.9
9.9
1.8
1.6
13.2
16.9
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
1,993
57,667
20,775
23,889
18.5
19.0
107.6
126.4
18.5
15.8
7.6
6.1
45.8
42.8
2.4
2.0
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
219
242
5,088
5,973
6,707
14.4
15.2
13.4
18.6
16.4
11.8
2.1
1.9
13.6
16.9
1.0
0.8
Bosch India*
Accumulate
9,011
9,570
28,293
9,973
11,320
17.8
18.0
396.2
455.7
22.8
19.8
4.3
3.6
18.8
18.2
2.5
2.1
CEAT
Buy
99
163
338
4,822
5,403
8.2
8.3
29.8
40.8
3.3
2.4
0.5
0.4
14.5
17.0
0.3
0.2
Exide Industries
Neutral
126
10,680
6,016
7,026
12.7
14.4
5.8
7.8
21.5
16.0
3.2
2.7
15.4
18.2
1.5
1.2
FAG Bearings*
Accumulate
1,436
1,569
2,386
1,619
1,879
16.0
16.6
108.6
130.7
13.2
11.0
2.3
1.9
18.8
19.1
1.3
1.0
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,679
1,923
33,537
23,990
27,038
13.8
14.6
105.8
120.2
15.9
14.0
6.4
5.2
44.3
41.0
1.1
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
110
165
454
7,169
7,929
6.9
7.1
40.4
41.3
2.7
2.7
0.5
0.4
20.5
18.0
0.4
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
893
1,019
54,825
40,060
46,301
11.5
11.7
55.3
64.3
16.2
13.9
3.6
3.0
24.5
23.8
1.1
0.9
Maruti
Accumulate
1,440
1,563
41,596
43,381
52,411
7.5
8.9
65.6
97.7
22.0
14.7
2.5
2.1
11.8
15.6
0.8
0.6
Motherson Sumi
Accumulate
194
209
11,413
25,769
29,010
7.1
7.5
10.2
13.1
19.1
14.9
4.8
3.8
28.1
28.3
0.6
0.5
Subros
Buy
26
35
158
1,296
1,476
9.8
9.9
3.4
5.0
7.8
5.2
0.6
0.5
7.2
10.2
0.4
0.4
Tata Motors
Accumulate
293
326
78,091 184,201 209,642
12.4
13.5
28.0
36.3
10.5
8.1
2.3
1.9
24.6
25.4
0.5
0.4
TVS Motor
Buy
41
47
1,953
7,019
7,827
6.0
6.3
4.3
5.3
9.7
7.8
1.5
1.3
16.4
18.0
0.2
0.2
Capital Goods
ABB*
Neutral
586
12,416
7,790
9,653
4.5
7.8
8.7
22.1
67.3
26.5
4.7
4.1
7.1
16.5
1.6
1.3
BGR Energy
Neutral
216
1,556
3,412
4,104
13.0
11.6
24.6
26.2
8.8
8.2
1.3
1.1
30.7
25.7
0.8
0.7
BHEL
Neutral
205
50,151
47,801
43,757
18.0
17.1
24.1
20.8
8.5
9.9
2.5
2.2
32.9
23.6
0.9
1.0
Blue Star
Buy
172
238
1,546
2,748
2,896
4.4
5.6
6.8
9.3
25.3
18.5
3.5
3.0
14.5
17.6
0.7
0.6
Crompton Greaves
Buy
97
129
6,203
12,136
13,790
3.8
6.3
3.3
6.9
29.3
14.1
1.7
1.6
5.8
11.5
0.5
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
36
49
296
2,802
3,074
9.5
9.8
7.7
10.9
4.7
3.3
0.4
0.4
9.6
12.1
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
54
75
1,400
6,909
7,723
6.2
7.2
5.4
8.4
10.1
6.5
1.2
1.0
17.0
22.8
0.3
0.3
LMW
Neutral
2,055
2,315
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
14.3
12.4
2.4
2.2
17.4
18.4
0.5
0.4
Thermax
Neutral
577
6,878
5,529
5,798
9.0
9.6
27.1
30.3
21.3
19.1
3.7
3.3
18.6
18.2
1.1
1.0
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,300
24,407
11,358
12,366
19.9
19.6
75.1
74.9
17.3
17.4
3.3
3.0
19.4
18.1
1.9
1.7
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
198
30,512
9,730
11,221
25.6
25.0
10.2
11.3
19.4
17.5
3.5
3.2
18.7
19.0
2.7
2.3
India Cements
Neutral
85
2,599
4,439
4,789
16.7
17.2
6.8
9.1
12.5
9.3
0.7
0.7
6.0
7.7
1.0
0.9
J K Lakshmi Cements
Accumulate
130
143
1,596
2,119
2,478
22.9
22.3
20.3
22.8
6.4
5.7
1.1
1.0
18.0
17.7
0.9
1.1
Madras Cements
Neutral
245
5,825
3,960
4,270
27.4
27.0
18.6
21.1
13.2
11.6
2.4
2.0
19.7
18.9
2.1
1.8
Shree Cements^
Neutral
4,364
15,202
5,678
6,251
29.0
28.6
288.1
334.0
15.2
13.1
4.2
3.3
31.7
28.4
2.1
1.7
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,939
53,162
20,466
23,017
23.3
24.3
100.0
117.1
19.4
16.6
3.5
3.0
19.6
19.5
2.5
2.4
210
268
1,106
20,466
23,017
22.5
22.5
24.4
27.0
8.6
7.8
1.0
0.9
12.3
12.1
0.2
0.2
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
12
223
2,262
2,522
5.9
6.3
0.9
1.6
13.2
7.8
0.4
0.4
2.7
4.6
0.4
0.4
IRB Infra
Buy
118
164
3,922
3,843
4,212
43.1
43.6
16.8
17.8
7.0
6.6
1.2
1.1
18.3
17.0
3.1
3.4
ITNL
Accumulate
197
225
3,827
6,564
7,054
27.2
27.4
26.3
29.0
7.5
6.8
1.2
1.0
17.0
16.3
2.7
2.7
IVRCL Infra
Buy
30
35
905
3,773
6,706
6.9
8.4
(3.9)
2.9
(7.6)
10.3
0.4
0.4
(5.4)
4.1
0.9
0.6
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
70
97
15,611
14,243
16,382
26.2
26.1
3.2
4.3
21.9
16.2
1.2
1.1
5.4
7.0
2.6
2.3
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,435
1,788
88,277
60,666
69,525
10.6
11.2
71.9
85.0
20.0
16.9
3.1
2.7
14.5
15.2
1.6
1.5
Nagarjuna Const.
Accumulate
41
44
1,046
5,863
6,576
8.1
8.2
3.1
4.1
13.3
10.0
0.4
0.4
3.2
4.2
0.6
0.5
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
46
1,511
11,892
13,116
10.2
10.2
(0.4)
3.0
(106.7)
15.4
0.5
0.5
3.8
0.5
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
109
157
1,641
1,642
2,642
9.7
10.1
3.2
7.2
33.9
15.0
1.9
1.7
6.0
12.1
1.2
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
165
197
817
6,026
7,135
9.1
9.3
14.1
24.6
11.7
6.7
0.7
0.6
5.6
9.2
0.5
0.5
Unity Infra
Buy
35
59
263
2,180
2,455
13.7
13.4
13.3
15.0
2.7
2.4
0.3
0.3
12.5
12.5
0.5
0.5
Allahabad Bank
Buy
147
183
7,373
6,509
7,264
2.7
2.8
28.2
33.5
5.2
4.4
0.7
0.7
13.8
14.7
Andhra Bank
Neutral
100
5,582
4,795
5,475
3.0
3.0
21.8
21.9
4.6
4.6
0.8
0.7
15.4
13.8
Axis Bank
Buy
1,413
1,753
66,005
15,959
18,660
3.2
3.2
119.2
139.0
11.9
10.2
2.2
1.9
20.3
20.1
Bank of Baroda
Buy
741
935
30,466
14,889
17,393
2.5
2.6
108.2
134.0
6.9
5.5
1.0
0.9
15.3
16.7
Bank of India
Accumulate
343
380
19,675
12,793
14,823
2.3
2.4
49.5
65.1
6.9
5.3
1.0
0.9
13.6
16.0
Bank of Maharashtra
Accumulate
55
58
3,222
3,720
4,268
2.9
2.8
10.9
13.0
5.0
4.2
0.8
0.7
16.2
16.9
Canara Bank
Buy
442
517
19,578
10,783
12,000
2.1
2.3
64.8
82.2
6.8
5.4
0.9
0.8
13.2
15.0
Central Bank
Neutral
75
5,484
7,158
8,217
2.4
2.6
13.1
20.1
5.7
3.7
0.8
0.7
10.3
14.3
Corporation Bank
Buy
407
517
6,033
4,919
5,634
2.1
2.2
96.7
99.9
4.2
4.1
0.7
0.6
16.3
14.9
Dena Bank
Buy
99
124
3,476
3,090
3,462
2.7
2.7
25.6
24.6
3.9
4.0
0.7
0.6
19.2
15.9
Financials
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Federal Bank
Accumulate
496
557
8,475
2,667
2,920
3.2
3.2
49.1
51.4
10.1
9.6
1.3
1.2
13.9
13.1
HDFC
Neutral
800
123,482
7,446
8,923
3.5
3.5
32.2
38.5
24.9
20.8
5.1
4.5
35.4
32.6
HDFC Bank
Neutral
660
156,510
21,724
26,578
4.3
4.3
28.7
36.1
23.0
18.3
4.4
3.7
20.7
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,092
1,404
125,536
22,317
26,217
2.9
3.0
72.0
84.6
15.2
12.9
1.9
1.8
14.9
15.9
IDBI Bank
Buy
97
122
12,407
8,196
9,305
1.9
2.1
15.4
22.3
6.3
4.4
0.7
0.6
10.7
14.1
Indian Bank
Buy
185
221
7,938
5,716
6,362
3.2
3.2
37.7
41.1
4.9
4.5
0.8
0.7
16.9
16.2
IOB
Buy
75
88
5,977
7,231
8,369
2.4
2.5
10.2
20.2
7.3
3.7
0.6
0.5
7.4
13.4
J & K Bank
Accumulate
1,306
1,406
6,329
2,784
2,932
3.7
3.7
229.2
199.6
5.7
6.5
1.3
1.1
24.6
18.2
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
242
264
12,213
1,722
2,080
2.2
2.2
19.9
24.6
12.2
9.8
1.9
1.7
16.6
17.9
Oriental Bank
Buy
291
336
8,487
6,360
7,004
2.6
2.8
48.1
59.4
6.1
4.9
0.7
0.7
12.1
13.5
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
853
1,053
28,920
19,202
22,040
3.2
3.4
146.8
167.9
5.8
5.1
1.1
0.9
17.6
17.5
South Ind.Bank
Buy
25
34
3,340
1,583
1,789
3.0
2.9
3.5
4.1
7.2
6.2
1.2
1.0
19.1
17.7
St Bk of India
Buy
2,197
2,597
147,395
60,594
70,439
3.3
3.3
221.9
257.4
9.9
8.5
1.7
1.4
17.4
17.7
Syndicate Bank
Buy
127
153
7,639
6,673
7,644
2.9
3.0
32.0
27.9
4.0
4.6
0.8
0.7
22.0
16.5
UCO Bank
Neutral
65
4,347
5,388
6,262
2.4
2.6
9.0
14.9
7.3
4.4
0.9
0.8
9.1
13.8
Union Bank
Buy
227
286
12,508
10,006
11,558
2.8
2.8
36.4
47.0
6.2
4.8
0.9
0.8
14.6
16.6
United Bank
Buy
67
82
2,428
3,549
3,814
2.5
2.7
12.0
21.4
5.6
3.1
0.6
0.5
10.1
16.3
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
54
2,666
2,342
2,763
1.9
2.1
8.0
10.9
6.7
4.9
0.7
0.6
10.1
12.6
Yes Bank
Buy
490
576
17,542
3,364
4,260
2.8
3.0
36.3
42.6
13.5
11.5
3.0
2.5
24.6
23.6
4,530
43,454
11,198
13,319
15.9
15.7
122.1
147.1
37.1
30.8
12.5
9.8
37.7
35.7
3.8
3.2
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Accumulate
500
564
5,973
5,580
6,417
4.8
5.0
18.1
21.7
27.6
23.1
10.0
8.0
38.7
38.7
1.0
0.8
Colgate
Neutral
1,317
17,903
3,120
3,588
20.3
21.1
38.4
45.1
34.3
29.2
31.9
25.6
104.6
97.0
5.5
4.8
Dabur India
Neutral
132
22,954
6,196
7,183
16.3
16.8
4.5
5.5
29.2
24.0
12.1
9.4
43.4
44.0
3.7
3.2
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
3,888
16,352
3,084
3,617
15.3
15.5
101.2
118.3
38.4
32.9
11.7
9.5
33.5
31.9
4.9
4.2
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
743
25,290
6,386
7,743
15.7
17.0
20.8
27.1
35.7
27.4
7.7
6.3
23.7
26.4
4.2
3.4
HUL
Neutral
455
98,458
25,350
28,974
13.3
13.5
15.1
17.0
30.2
26.9
24.0
17.1
85.7
74.3
3.7
3.2
ITC
Neutral
292
230,352
29,148
34,191
35.7
36.1
9.4
11.1
31.2
26.3
10.4
8.6
35.9
35.7
7.6
6.4
Marico
Neutral
220
14,200
4,747
5,402
13.6
13.6
6.3
7.8
34.7
28.2
7.1
5.8
26.0
22.6
3.1
2.6
Nestle*
Neutral
4,624
44,582
8,487
10,081
21.2
22.1
113.0
142.5
40.9
32.5
24.6
16.9
70.5
61.6
5.3
4.3
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Neutral
138
8,543
7,272
7,998
9.1
9.5
6.9
8.1
20.2
17.0
2.1
2.0
8.9
9.8
1.1
1.0
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
720
765
50,011
25,325
28,476
21.7
20.7
51.0
52.8
14.1
13.6
3.7
3.1
26.8
22.9
1.9
1.6
Hexaware*
Buy
87
113
2,571
1,948
2,136
20.9
18.3
10.9
10.1
8.0
8.6
2.1
1.8
27.2
21.2
1.1
0.9
Infosys
Neutral
2,837
162,885
40,746
44,283
28.9
28.8
162.6
172.9
17.5
16.4
4.1
3.5
23.5
21.3
3.4
3.0
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
168
184
1,873
1,881
1,987
17.9
17.4
18.5
19.4
9.1
8.6
1.3
1.2
14.8
13.6
0.6
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Buy
109
140
2,106
2,234
2,477
15.8
15.2
10.9
12.8
10.0
8.5
2.1
1.7
22.2
20.6
0.9
0.7
Mahindra Satyam
Neutral
119
14,036
7,711
8,683
21.6
20.3
8.7
11.3
13.7
10.5
3.3
2.5
30.6
23.7
1.4
1.2
Mindtree
Neutral
857
3,548
2,357
2,580
21.0
19.3
84.4
86.8
10.2
9.9
2.7
2.1
26.8
21.7
1.2
1.0
Mphasis&
Accumulate
365
396
7,669
5,531
5,874
17.6
17.5
35.4
37.7
10.3
9.7
1.5
1.3
14.7
13.5
0.9
0.7
NIIT
Buy
25
36
414
1,048
1,161
9.1
10.9
4.1
6.2
6.1
4.1
0.6
0.6
10.3
14.1
0.2
0.1
Persistent
Neutral
556
2,222
1,297
1,433
25.6
24.1
46.5
54.0
12.0
10.3
2.2
1.9
18.5
18.0
1.4
1.2
TCS
Neutral
1,454
284,668
62,954
70,871
29.0
28.9
71.6
79.1
20.3
18.4
6.8
5.5
33.2
29.7
4.3
3.8
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
1,040
1,105
13,300
6,789
7,609
21.0
19.6
95.8
110.7
10.9
9.4
2.6
2.1
24.3
22.3
2.0
1.7
Wipro
Neutral
416
102,339
43,514
47,304
20.1
19.4
26.6
27.7
15.7
15.0
3.1
2.6
19.7
17.9
2.0
1.7
D B Corp
Buy
235
276
4,305
1,583
1,787
23.9
25.4
11.9
14.5
19.8
16.2
3.9
3.4
21.4
22.4
2.6
2.3
HT Media
Accumulate
103
113
2,427
2,061
2,205
14.0
15.1
6.6
7.9
15.6
13.2
1.5
1.4
10.3
11.0
0.8
0.7
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
103
125
3,245
1,511
1,698
23.2
23.4
6.4
7.3
15.9
14.1
4.0
3.5
25.9
26.6
2.3
2.0
PVR
Neutral
266
772
820
1,307
17.3
17.3
11.2
17.8
23.9
15.0
1.1
1.0
9.7
10.8
1.0
0.6
Sun TV Network
Neutral
411
16,193
1,942
2,237
77.2
75.5
17.6
19.1
23.4
21.5
5.6
5.1
25.8
25.2
7.9
6.8
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
464
10,501
10,746
13,982
30.8
31.1
43.3
55.5
10.7
8.4
1.1
1.0
11.4
12.6
3.1
2.4
Coal India
Accumulate
332
368
209,924
66,666
70,292
25.7
27.3
24.2
26.6
13.8
12.5
4.1
3.3
33.1
29.1
2.2
1.9
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
20
28
699
1,984
2,074
10.6
11.6
1.8
2.6
11.5
7.8
0.4
0.2
3.6
5.1
0.5
0.5
Hind. Zinc
Buy
118
149
50,007
12,002
13,759
49.7
50.8
14.7
16.4
8.1
7.2
1.6
1.3
21.1
19.8
2.3
1.6
Hindalco
Neutral
107
20,524
80,205
88,987
9.0
9.2
13.4
13.8
8.0
7.8
0.6
0.6
7.9
7.6
0.6
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
773
17,244
39,072
40,493
16.5
18.2
82.4
90.3
9.4
8.6
1.0
0.9
10.7
10.7
0.9
0.8
MOIL
Neutral
251
4,209
933
954
46.9
45.5
25.8
26.1
9.7
9.6
1.5
1.4
16.7
15.1
2.0
1.9
Monnet Ispat
Buy
260
318
1,657
2,287
2,883
21.8
21.8
35.3
40.7
7.4
6.4
0.7
0.6
9.6
10.2
1.9
1.4
Nalco
Neutral
46
11,830
6,630
8,357
11.4
14.5
2.1
3.3
21.6
14.1
1.0
1.0
4.6
6.9
1.1
0.9
NMDC
Buy
146
181
57,726
9,674
11,536
75.2
76.6
16.0
18.6
9.1
7.8
2.0
1.7
23.6
23.0
3.8
3.0
FMCG
Tata Global
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

SAIL
Neutral
Sesa Goa
Accumulate
Sterlite Inds
Accumulate
Tata Steel
Buy
Sarda
Buy
118
148
421
1,442
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
38
52
517
Accumulate
101
112
Cairn India
Buy
307
GAIL
Neutral
341
ONGC
Accumulate
324
Reliance Industries
Neutral
863
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
290
3,723
3,128
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
260
3,637
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Buy
148
179
70
Alembic Pharma
Buy
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
Aventis*
Neutral
2,331
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
776
Cipla
Accumulate
380
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
Dishman Pharma
Buy
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
77
31,599
43,438
56,199
12.0
12.2
6.5
8.5
11.7
9.0
0.8
0.7
6.6
8.2
1.0
0.8
163
183
14,140
2,412
3,911
30.8
33.1
29.6
31.8
5.5
5.1
0.8
0.7
16.3
15.4
7.3
4.5
97
110
32,716
43,185
45,442
23.3
23.7
16.8
17.9
5.8
5.4
0.6
0.6
11.6
11.2
0.7
0.7
364
443
35,396 142,732 146,575
7.4
9.9
7.2
34.7
50.8
10.5
0.8
0.8
1.6
7.5
0.6
0.5
1,494
19.0
19.1
29.2
31.7
4.0
3.7
0.5
0.4
12.3
12.0
0.6
0.6
2,512
2,816
12.4
13.7
10.0
12.6
3.9
3.1
0.3
0.2
7.2
8.4
0.5
0.4
321
2,367
2,425
14.2
13.7
33.3
33.5
3.0
3.0
0.4
0.3
12.9
11.2
0.6
0.5
383
58,622
17,394
17,034
76.4
72.3
60.8
55.1
5.1
5.6
1.0
0.9
21.9
17.0
2.5
2.2
43,261
48,077
55,815
15.3
15.3
34.9
35.9
9.8
9.5
1.7
1.5
19.0
17.0
0.6
0.5
357
277,241 144,089 158,065
32.8
34.7
28.7
34.4
11.3
9.4
1.8
1.6
17.0
18.3
1.6
1.4
278,504 362,700 380,031
8.9
8.9
68.1
71.5
12.7
12.1
1.4
1.2
12.4
11.8
0.8
0.7
3,707
13.2
11.7
22.8
23.5
12.7
12.3
3.8
3.4
33.2
29.2
1.1
0.9
3,365
3,700
22.8
23.4
25.3
26.6
10.3
9.8
2.4
2.0
26.0
22.6
1.2
1.1
11,108
32,210
41,362
6.1
5.8
15.4
15.6
9.6
9.5
2.5
2.1
29.1
24.1
0.4
0.3
3,911
1,079
983
91.8
91.9
8.8
7.8
7.9
8.9
1.3
1.2
17.8
14.1
3.3
3.6
77
95
1,453
1,490
1,714
16.2
17.1
7.4
9.5
10.4
8.1
2.8
2.2
30.7
30.2
1.1
0.9
181
208
5,267
5,463
6,279
15.0
15.0
12.4
14.0
14.6
12.9
1.9
1.6
18.8
17.8
1.5
1.3
5,369
1,482
1,682
17.5
16.6
82.9
87.8
28.1
26.6
4.4
3.5
16.3
14.8
3.4
2.9
817
15,880
6,148
7,386
15.3
18.0
24.6
39.5
31.5
19.6
5.9
4.8
18.4
25.1
3.0
2.4
419
30,531
8,151
9,130
25.8
24.8
20.2
21.6
18.8
17.6
3.4
2.9
19.4
17.6
3.5
3.0
1,814
30,796
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
21.7
19.5
4.5
3.7
22.4
20.8
3.2
2.8
81
155
654
1,280
1,536
20.2
20.2
12.1
15.5
6.7
5.2
0.6
0.6
10.0
11.6
1.2
1.0
2,097
17,765
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
27.6
25.5
8.0
7.1
20.1
26.3
5.9
5.1
Buy
63
78
577
642
784
14.2
15.2
5.7
7.8
11.0
8.0
1.3
1.2
12.9
16.4
1.1
0.9
Ipca labs
Buy
476
559
6,000
2,850
3,474
21.0
21.0
29.9
37.3
15.9
12.8
3.8
3.0
26.7
26.4
2.3
1.9
Lupin
Accumulate
600
655
26,832
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
26.1
31.1
23.0
19.3
5.3
4.3
25.8
24.7
3.3
2.7
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
413
17,483
12,046
11,980
16.0
15.8
37.3
32.1
11.1
12.9
4.3
3.5
45.3
29.7
1.5
1.4
Sun Pharma
Neutral
811
83,887
10,111
12,563
42.6
42.6
28.9
29.8
28.1
27.2
5.7
4.8
22.3
19.2
7.6
6.0
Neutral
74
1,125
1,502
1,535
32.1
31.9
11.4
12.5
6.5
6.0
0.7
0.7
7.6
11.9
1.2
1.0
Power
GIPCL
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Accumulate
151
163
124,795
72,809
81,951
23.4
24.1
12.2
13.6
12.4
11.1
1.5
1.4
12.2
12.5
2.3
2.2
DLF
Neutral
281
47,733
7,953
9,699
34.7
37.0
4.4
6.0
64.3
47.1
1.8
1.8
3.1
3.8
8.1
6.3
HDIL
Neutral
68
2,845
2,441
3,344
55.1
48.2
22.7
26.6
3.0
2.6
0.3
0.2
8.8
9.4
3.0
2.3
MLIFE
Accumulate
409
446
1,671
786
888
26.3
26.7
31.0
36.3
13.2
11.3
1.3
1.2
10.1
10.8
2.4
2.1
Bharti Airtel
Accumulate
310
350
117,647
80,521
87,160
30.5
30.5
6.4
10.4
48.5
29.8
2.2
2.1
4.6
7.0
2.3
2.1
Idea Cellular
Neutral
114
37,816
22,087
23,927
26.6
27.7
2.9
3.9
39.1
29.3
2.7
2.5
6.9
8.4
2.3
2.1
Rcom
Neutral
71
14,551
21,087
22,067
31.8
31.9
2.6
4.0
26.9
17.6
0.4
0.4
1.5
2.2
2.4
2.2
Power
NTPC
Real Estate
Telecom
zOthers
Abbott India
Accumulate
1,384
1,590
2,942
1,629
1,886
11.8
13.3
60.8
79.5
22.8
17.4
4.7
3.9
22.0
24.4
1.6
1.3
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
182
217
1,813
3,450
3,929
4.5
7.4
10.0
15.5
18.2
11.8
2.4
2.0
13.0
17.4
0.5
0.5
Cera Sanitaryware
Buy
415
495
525
460
596
16.4
16.2
34.7
45.0
12.0
9.2
2.9
2.3
27.7
27.8
1.2
1.0
Cravatex
Buy
351
545
91
272
308
7.2
7.3
37.5
45.4
9.4
7.7
2.2
1.8
23.7
22.7
0.4
0.4
CRISIL
Neutral
974
6,841
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
28.4
24.4
12.8
10.3
50.9
46.9
6.5
5.5
Finolex Cables
Accumulate
53
61
808
2,304
2,552
9.9
9.1
8.2
10.1
6.5
5.2
0.9
0.8
13.7
14.7
0.3
0.3
Force Motors
Buy
418
550
545
2,027
2,299
4.6
5.1
35.3
50.0
11.8
8.4
0.5
0.5
3.9
5.3
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India
Buy
292
360
674
1,494
1,607
6.4
7.8
23.9
33.0
12.2
8.9
1.9
1.7
16.5
20.1
0.2
0.2
Greenply Industries
Sell
392
309
946
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
13.3
8.9
2.2
1.8
16.8
21.0
0.8
0.6
Hitachi
Neutral
136
311
905
1,025
4.8
6.0
7.7
12.4
17.7
11.0
1.7
1.5
9.9
14.4
0.4
0.4
2,592
2,842
2,291
2,117
2,491
8.1
7.8
140.5
157.9
18.4
16.4
2.8
2.4
16.3
15.8
1.0
0.8
1,079
1,059
1,116
8.5
9.5
36.0
42.0
17.0
14.6
2.5
2.2
15.4
16.0
1.1
1.0
Honeywell Automation* Accumulate

Styrolution ABS India*
Buy
613
744
ITD Cementation
Buy
210
334
242
1,455
1,630
12.4
12.6
29.8
40.5
7.0
5.2
0.6
0.5
8.2
9.8
0.6
0.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Accumulate
157
167
2,529
816
979
14.5
14.9
5.2
6.0
30.4
26.1
3.5
3.2
8.8
10.2
3.3
2.7
MCX
Buy
1,185
1,440
6,046
553
624
65.3
66.3
62.5
72.0
19.0
16.5
5.2
4.5
27.5
27.4
7.9
6.6
MRF
Accumulate
12,358
13,416
5,241
13,030
14,405
10.3
10.6 1,418.1 1,677.1
8.7
7.4
1.5
1.3
19.1
18.7
0.5
0.4
Page Industries
Neutral
3,296
3,676
856
1,047
19.1
19.6
101.2
127.3
32.6
25.9
16.7
12.4
58.5
54.9
4.4
3.6
Relaxo Footwears
Buy
651
887
782
989
1,148
10.7
11.7
41.8
55.5
15.6
11.7
3.5
2.7
25.5
26.3
0.9
0.8
Sintex Industries
Buy
60
79
1,891
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
4.4
3.8
0.6
0.5
12.9
13.2
0.8
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
275
332
258
1,048
1,157
11.3
12.0
58.7
66.5
4.7
4.1
0.8
0.7
18.9
18.3
0.5
0.5
S. Kumars Nationwide
Neutral
10
299
6,765
7,393
18.1
18.0
6.4
7.5
1.6
1.3
0.1
0.1
6.1
6.7
0.6
0.6
SpiceJet
Buy
37
43
1,790
5,720
6,599
5.3
6.8
3.6
5.4
10.2
6.9
14.8
4.7
0.4
0.4
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
zOthers
TAJ GVK
Buy
66
108
414
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
8.4
7.3
1.1
1.0
13.9
14.4
1.7
1.4
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
308
379
475
782
818
16.5
17.0
61.8
65.4
5.0
4.7
0.7
0.7
15.7
14.7
0.3
0.2
TTK Healthcare
Buy
465
643
361
374
425
7.9
9.5
24.1
32.7
19.3
14.2
19.7
22.5
0.8
0.7
TVS Srichakra
Buy
223
276
171
1,461
1,591
5.6
7.1
6.9
39.4
32.3
5.7
1.3
1.1
3.8
20.6
0.3
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
1,813
23,714
10,473
11,939
15.0
15.8
30.4
56.9
59.6
31.9
4.6
2.9
10.8
12.3
2.9
2.3
Vesuvius India
Neutral
321
652
560
611
16.1
17.0
24.7
28.8
13.0
11.2
1.9
1.7
15.8
16.2
1.0
0.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on February 22, 2013
Market Outlook
February 25, 2013

Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

February 25, 2013

OIL & GAS

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

(0.5) (124.2) 22,782

RBI issues new banks licensing guidelines

Net Inflows (February 21, 2013)

FII Derivatives (February 22, 2013)

Jet Air India

ING Vysya Bank

RBI issues new banks licensing guidelines

II) Corporate structure and other requirements for the NOFHC:

III) Corporate structure and other requirements for the bank:

IV) Exposure norms

3QFY2013 Result Review Metal Sector

Economic and Political News

Telecom firms' license renewal be decided in 2 weeks: DoT to HC

February 25, 2013

February 26, 2013

February 27, 2013

Bosch India, Goodyear

February 28, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

Country Event Description

February 26, 2013

New home sales

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

Initial Jobless claims

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

Qtrly GDP YoY%

Germany PMI Manufacturing

Germany PMI Services

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

BOE Announces rates

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Industrial Production (YoY)

Industrial Production (YoY)

Producer Price Index (mom)

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

Consumer price index (mom)

RBI Repo rate

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

RBI Reverse Repo rate

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Imports yoy growth

Reverse Repo rate

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Agri / Agri Chemical