SIGMET Analysis

Executions and Techniques on
SIGMET Consulting Information

April, 2011 Beijing
Qiang Xuemin
Main topic
To briefly introduce the executions
and techniques on SIGMET information
which have been successfully applied in
aeronautic significant weather forecasts .
Data used in this work:
Conventional telegram report
Output products from the global
mid-term numerical weather
forecast model
Satellite data
4 Phenomena
of SIGMET
Consulting
Information
Contents
Thunderstorm
Aircraft Bumps
Aircraft Icing
Severe Lee Waves
Thunder Storm
1
Diagnostics on stabilization index of the
atmosphere
Multi-factor-overlapping techniques on
thunder storm area
Classification and extrapolation of satellite
data for convective weather
Integrated forecast techniques on thunder
storm area
Thunder
Storm
Active convections is in favor of a thunder storm.
favorable conditions
I. conditionally unstable stratification in the atmosphere
II. abundant in water vapor
III. a kind of dynamic trigger mechanism
Characteristics
meso-scale system / short lifetime / strong convective weather
Forecast
Yes or No before 0-6 hours
About Thunder Storm
1-1 Diagnostics on stabilization index of the atmosphere
Potential Forecast
for
Convective Weather
Diagnostics
Threshold for these index
Index characterizing instability of the atmosphere
Output products from NWF
1
2
3
4
4. Energy Index
1. Thermal Index
2. Humidity
Index
3. Dynamical
Index
Diagnostics on stabilization
index of the atmosphere
1
Thermal Index
A---index
Air mass index---K
Potential instability index---I
Showalter Index---SI
Simplified Showalter Index---SSI
Yamazaki index---KYI
Bejerknese Index---BI
Diagnostic on convective instability
A---index

) (
500
850
500 850
=
d
t t t t A
---- to describe the vertical humidity condition in the whole
volume
t
500
/ t
850
:

temperatue at 500 / 850 hPa
t
d
: dew-point

When A 0, probability of a thunderstrom is 90%
1
Thermal Index
A---index
Air mass index---K
Air mass index---K

K t t t t t
d d
= +
850 500 850 700
( )
or
500 700 850 850
) ( ) ( 2 T T T T T T K
d d
=
---- the bigger the K index is, the more unstable in the air will be.
K 20
o
C, no thunderstorm
20
o
C K 25
o
C, single thunderstorm
25
o
C K 30
o
C, sporadic thunderstorms
30
o
C K 35
o
C, scattered thunderstorms
35
o
C K , massive thunderstorms
1
Thermal Index
A---index
Air mass index---K

700
700 925 200
925 300
01 . 0
2
d
t
h h h
h h
I +
+

=
h : geopential height
---- favorable condition : colder in the upper air, warmer in lower
---- the bigger I index is, the more instable of the stratification will be

K 2.79, no thunderstorm
K 2.79, yes
1
Thermal Index
A---index
Air mass index---K

500 S
SI T T =
---- temperature difference between the stratification curve and the state
curve, describing air mass at 850hPa rising along dry-adiabatic curve
till to the condensation level then rising along wet-adiabatic curve till
to 500hPa (with temperature T
s
). T
500
is the environmental
temperature at 500hPa.
---- positive: rising air mass with high temperature
negative: with low temperature
Value of SI Index Possibility of thunderstorm event
3
o
C little or not
3
o
C SI 0
o
C Shower be possible
0
o
C SI -3
o
C Thunderstorm be possible
-3
o
C SI -6
o
C Strong thunderstorm be possible
-6
o
C SI Severe convective weather be possible
1
Thermal Index
A---index
Air mass index---K
Bjerknes Index---BI

'
500 S
T T SSI =
---- T
s
: air mass at 850hPa rising along dry-adiabatic curve till to

500hPa (with temperature Ts
). T
500
is the environmental
temperature at 500hPa.
---- usually, SSI 0.
---- The smaller the SSI is, the stable the air would be.
---- SSI has outstanding exhibition in forecasting strong convective
weather, such as tornadoes, hailstones, and so on
1
Thermal Index
A---index
Air mass index---K
Bjerknes Index---BI

KYI
T S
T T
A
d
=
+
+
|
o ( )
850
humidity condition at low level
stabilization of the air
temperature advection
at 500hpa
While: =1, =110
5
s0 (statistically)
S -----
(T-T
d
)
850
----- ( units)
T
----- 10
-5
s
-1

850
1 ( )
0
{
A
A
d
A
T S
T S
T T
T S
KYI
>
+
s
=
1
2
3
KYI

>

pay attention
possibility is high
in all likelihood
1
Thermal Index
A---index
Air mass index---K
Bjerknes Index---BI
Bjerknes Index---BI

200 = T Z BI
Z: thickness from 1000-700hPa (unit: gpm)
T: temperature at 700hPa (unit: K)
200: empirical coefficient

BI 94, a thunderstorm might occur.
When BI is used in a frontal circumstance, the correct rate
would be more than 81%.
1
Thermal Index
A---index
Air mass index---K
Bjerknes Index---BI

0
0
0
se
p
u
<
>
stable
neutral or
instable
0
0
0
se
z
u
>
<
stable
neutral
instable
se
: pseudo-equivalent potential temperature

This method usually is used in diagnosing weather systems with
systematical updraft flows.
1
2
3
4
4. Energy Index
1. Thermal Index
2. Humidity
Index
3. Dynamical
Index
2
Humidity Index
difference between air temperature and dew-point temperature

divergence of the water vapor flux
d
T T TTD =
simple, but useful

When TT
d
=0 saturated.
Based on the NWF products, we can get TTD at each grid points.
2
Humidity Index
difference between air temperature and dew-point temperature

Water vapor flux, depicting the strength and direction of the
transportation of the moisture.
F
H
: flux on horizontal
F
Z
: flux on vertical

horizontal wind speed vertical speed
specific humidity density of the air
H
F V q g =
q F
z
e =
V
e
q
( ) ( ) ( ) V q g uq g vq g
x y
c c
V = +
c c
positive: outcome or lost of the water vapor
negative: income or convergence of the water vapor
1
2
3
4
4. Energy Index
1. Thermal Index
2. Humidity
Index
3. Dynamical
Index
Dynamical Index
Dynamical Index
3
vorticity
divergence

vertical velocity

y
u
x
v
V
c
c
c
c
, = V =

D V
u
x
v
y
= V = +
c
c
c
c
unit: 10
-6
s
-1

unit: 10
-5
s
-1

75
2
1
925 925
= D e
unit: 10
-3
hPas
-1
at 925hPa
P D D
k k k k
A + + =

) (
2
1
1 1
e e
k level
1
2
3
4
4. Energy Index
1. Thermal Index
2. Humidity
Index
3. Dynamical
Index
Energy Index
Energy Index
4
convective available potential energy CAPE

modified CAPE MCAPE

normalized CAPE NCAPE

downdraft CAPE DCAPE

convective inhibitation CIN

( )
EL
LFC
Z
vp ve
ve Z
T T
CAPE g dZ
T
=
}
T
v
pseudo temperature
subscript mark
e ---- environment air
p --- air parcel
LFC

level of free convection
LCL level of condensation
EL equilibrium level
EAL equivalent area level
dry adiabatic curve
wet adiabatic curve
state curve
stratification curve
Two aspects noticeable in computing CAPE
corrections for T
v
) 1 (
1
/ 1
r T
r
r
T T
v
|
c
+ ~
+
+
height of LCL

surface / h
850
/ h
925
/
height with the biggest wet-bulb temperature from 1000 to
800hPa
modified CAPE MCAPE

---- r
e
and r
i
stand for the mixing ratio of water vapor in
liquid and solid state, respectively.
---- g (r
e
+ r
i
) stands for the dragging function caused by
the water component in the air
[ ( ) ]
EL
LFC
Z
e i p
Z
Tvp Tve
MCAPE g r r dZ
Tve
= +
}
normalized CAPE NCAPE
FCL EL LFC
CAPE CAPE
CAPE
H Z Z
= =
A
----designed to consider the effect on the vertical velocity
caused by the vertical distribution of the floating force
downdraft CAPE DCAPE
In the body of a storm, when precipitation, ice water or crystal
vaporizes in the unsaturated air or melts at the frozen layer, downdraft
occurs.
( ) ln
1
( )
n
i
i
n
p
d e p
p
Z
ve vp
Z
ve
DCAPE R T T d p
g T T dZ
T

=
~
}
}
---- P
i
/ Z
i
pressure or height where downdraft begins
---- P
n
/ Z
n
pressure or height when downdraft reaches the ground
Approximatively, the maximum down speed can be written as:
max
2 W DCAPE =
convective inhibition CIN
dry adiabatic curve
wet adiabatic curve
state curve
stratification curve
LFC
i
Z
e p
Z
B
T T
CIN g dz
T
=
}
T
B
mean temperature at ABL
(atmospheric boundary layer)
subscript mark
e ---- environment air
p --- air parcel
Z
LFC
level of free convection
Z
i
original level
2
CIN
W CIN =
Executions and Techniques on Thunder Storm 1
Diagnostics on stabilization index of
the atmosphere
Multi-factor-overlapping techniques
on thunder storm area
Classification and extrapolation of
satellite data for convective weather
Integrated forecast techniques on
thunder storm area
Thunder
Storm
1-2 Multi-factor-overlapping method on thunderstorm area
=0
=0
trough
SW airflow
chart for multi-factor-overlapping method
indices selection
stability indices
0
se
p
u c
>
c
K>35
SI<0
A>0
KYI1
BI94
TI>0
{
I2.79
water vapor indices
850 850
2.0
d
T T <
850
( ) 0 qV V- <
850 850 925 925
( ) ( ) 5.0
d d
T T T T + <
850 700
( ) ( ) 0 qV qV V- +V- <
momentum indices
and
or
700 500
0 W W + <
850
( ) 0 V V- <
500
0 V V >
850 700
( ) ( ) 0 V V V- +V- <
and
energy indices
CAPE>200
convective precipitation RC>3mm
Multi-factor-overlapping method in forecast thunderstorm
Step-wise
decreasing FAR
Executions of
indices
overlapping
Integrated
judgment on
severe weather
850 850 925 925
( ) ( ) 25
d d
T T T T + >
15 K <

500 700 850 925
30
se se se se
u u u u + > K
To judge whether 15
indices meet the
requirements or not. If it
is true, NP+1.
If NP>8 and CAPE>800
Or NP>11
Or CAPE>2000
Or Rc>5mm
Then there will be a thunderstorm
within the forecast area.
the atmosphere
Classification and extrapolation of
Integrated forecast techniques on
thunder storm area
Thunder
Storm
1-3 classification and extrapolation of satellite data for convective
weather
including:
quality control on Satellite data
classification and extraction of convective
cloud, jet stream cloud, frontal cloud and
cloud systems related with Lee waves
obtaining live information of sandstorm
1-3 Identification and extrapolation of satellite data for convective
weather
threshold technique
space correlation technique
bi-channel dynamic threshold technique
dynamic clustering technique
brightness temperature technique

the atmosphere
Identification and extrapolation of
Integrated forecasting techniques on
thunder storm areas
Thunder
Storm
1-4 Integrated forecast techniques on thunder storm area
Regression integrated technique is used to forecast the
thunder storm rainfall area.
Basic principle:
=
+ =
n
i
i i
Y b b Y
1
0
b
0
mean of the forecast objective
b
i
coefficient, reflecting the relationship between forecasts
(actually, they represents the variety forecast measures)
Steps:
a variety methods forecasting thunderstorms are used to
compute inversely the history samples
Use MOS method, output of the forecasts are treated as different
factors
Set up a forecast model by using the regressive integrated
technique
Substitute results of the various methods to the model and draw
the final forecast conclusion.
1-4 Integrated forecast techniques on thunder storm area
4 Phenomena
of SIGMET
Consulting
Information
Contents
Thunderstorm
Aircraft Bumps
Aircraft Icing
Severe Lee Wave
Aircraft Bumps
2
Bumping is a kind of phenomenon that a flying aircraft goes up and
down and sways from the right to the left badly, or its body
shakes violently. It is caused mainly by the turbulences in the
atmosphere.
Category of the Turbulences:
Dynamical Turbulences
Thermal Turbulences
Wind Shear Turbulences
Wake Vortex Turbulences
2-1 Aircraft Bumps and The Turbulences
2-2 Mechanism of the Turbulences:
G
Y
n =
S
G
VK W
n
2
= A
g
a
mg
ma
G
Y
n = =
A
= A
VSKW Y
2
1
= A
Loading coefficient
Y

ascending force
G gravity
a acceleration
W vertical wind speed of the gust

density of the air
V speed of the aircraft
K coefficient of slope
S area of the airfoil
n increment of n
2-3 Diagnose and Forecast on Aircraft Bumps
Richardson Index
Ellrod Index
Ti Index

E Index

L Index
Integrated Diagnose
Richardson Index---a classical method

2
( / )( / ) / Ri g z v z u u = c c c c
static stability of the layer
vertical sheer of the layer
The index operates well in two circumstances:
areas closing to a jet stream
areas with gales near the ground surface and
unstable air at the bottom
A Vertical section of R
i
is helpful in figuring out the layer on
which the aircraft bumps might take place.
Richardson Index
Ellrod Index
Ti Index

E Index

L Index
Integrated Diagnose
Ellrod Index

In Practical,
[ ] TI VWS DEF CVG = +
2
1
2 2
(
(
|
|
.
|
\
|
c
c
+
c
c
+
|
|
.
|
\
|
c
c
c
c
=
y
u
x
v
y
v
x
u
DEF
|
|
.
|
\
|
c
c
+
c
c
=
y
v
x
u
CVG
z
V
VWS
A
A
=
negative of divergence
wind shear on vertical direction
flow field deformation made
by stretch in horizontal and
shear in vertical
TI VWS DEF = unit: 10
-7
s
-2

Degree of bump Value of TI
light TI4
Light-medium 4<TI8
medium 8<TI<16
severe TI16
Table for Bump and TI
T
i
Index----applied in NMC, U.S.A

u
V
The bigger Ti index is, the stronger the bumps will be.
Ti >5.1 a medium Bump might occurs.
Ti <1.7 no bumps.
wind vector
2 ( )
p
i
C
V V V V
T V T V
u u u u u
(
c c c c
= V V +V
(
c c c c

potential temperature
Richardson Index
Ellrod Index
Ti Index

E Index

L Index
Integrated Diagnose
E Index----Dutton (1989)
v
|
h
| wind shear in horizontal
unit: m/s/100Km
wind shear in vertical
unit: m/s/1000Km
2
1.25 0.25 10.5
h v
E | | = + +
E 5 7.5 10 15 20 25 30
P(%) 0.0 0.95 1.55 2.2 2.8 4.2 7.5
Table3 relationship between E index and the probability of a
medium CAT in 100Km-averaged flight test
Richardson Index
Ellrod Index
Ti Index

E Index

L Index
Integrated Diagnose
L Index method----a probability method

wind shear in horizontal unit: m/s/100Km
wind shear in vertical unit: m/s/1000Km
52 . 2 133 . 0 718 . 0 268 . 7
c
c
+
c
c
+
c
c
=
n
u
n
T
z
u
L
Step 1 compute L index
2 2
|
.
|
\
|
c
c
+
|
.
|
\
|
c
c
=
c
c
z
v
z
u
z
u
2
2
|
|
.
|
\
|
c
c
+
|
.
|
\
|
c
c
=
c
c
y
v
x
u
n
u
2
2
|
|
.
|
\
|
c
c
+
|
.
|
\
|
c
c
=
c
c
y
T
x
T
n
T
temperature shear in horizontal unit: /s/100Km
L Index method----a probability method

Step 2 get the probability------P
L
e
p
59 . 0
1
1
+
=
generally,
86%>P75% light CAT forecast output --- 1
95%>P86% moderate CAT forecast output --- 2
P96% svevere CAT forecast output --- 3
integrated diagnose on CAT areas
5
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5
1
i i
i
F k f k f k f k f k f k f
=
= = + + + +
k
i
weight
f
i
output for 5 forecasts
4 Phenomena
of SIGMET
Consulting
Information
Contents
Thunderstorm
Aircraft Bumps
Aircraft Icing
Severe Lee Wave
Aircraft Icing
3
3-1 Aircraft Icing
3-1 Aircraft Icing
3-2 Factors affecting Aircraft Icing
I weather conditions
temperature ----- TAT (total air temperature)
LWC and the scales of the water droplets
cloud phase state
II flight parameters
including flight speed, aircraft shape and type and other
parameters
3-3 Arithmetic on Aircraft Icing
3-3-1 Icing computation scheme 1
step1. computations on LWC
) 87 . 2 /( ) ( 95 . 0
h h c h c
T Q Q P L =
( for cumulous cloud )
) ) 36 ( /( ) ( 10 25 . 0
2 4
= T T T T E f L
h c n
( for stratus cloud )
quantities at the flight level t
k
: temperature()
P
h
:

pressure f: relative humidity T
h
: temperature (K)
Q
h
: saturated specific humidity
quantities at the cloud bottom
T
c
: temperature Qc: saturated specific humidity
) 5 . 237 /( 5 . 7
10 11 . 6
h h
t t
E
+
=
2
h c
T T
T
+
=
value
L0.01 0.01<L0.1 0.1<L0.3 0.3<L0.5 0.5<L1.0 L1.0
rank L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6
Table4 Levels for liquid water content (LWC)
step2. diameter of moderate cloud droplet
cloud St Sc Ns As Ac Cu Cb
D
MV
20 28 48 16 18 22 36
Table 5 diameters of moderate water droplets for different clouds
D
MV
1 17 28 50 >50
rank D1 D2 D3 D4 D5
unit: m
Table 6 classification for D
mv

step3. classification for environmental temperature
value
T>0 -5<T0 -10<T-5 -20<T-10 T<-20
rank
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5
Table 7 classification for environmental temperature
step4. index matrix for severe icing I index
T1: T>0, I=0
T2-5<T0
Index I D1 D2 D3 D4 D5
L1 0 0 0 0 6
L2 0 1 2 3 7
L3 0 4 5 6 8
L4 0 5 7 7 9
L5 0 6 8 8 10
L6 0 8 9 9 10
T3-10<T-5
index I D1 D2 D3 D4 D5
L1 0 0 0 0 6
L2 0 1 2 3 7
L3 0 4 5 6 8
L4 0 5 6 7 9
L5 0 6 7 8 10
L6 0 8 8 9 10
T4-20<T-10
index I D1 D2 D3 D4 D5
L1 0 0 0 0 6
L2 0 1 2 3 7
L3 0 3 4 5 8
L4 0 4 5 6 9
L5 0 5 6 7 10
L6 0 7 8 8 10
T5T-20
I D1 D2 D3 D4 D5
L1 0 0 0 0 5
L2 0 1 2 3 6
L3 0 2 2 3 7
L4 0 3 3 4 8
L5 0 5 5 6 9
L6 0 7 7 7 10
criterions on Icing
-8<t<0 and t-td2.0
-16 <t-8 and t-td3.0
-22 <t-16 and t-td4.0
Advection of Temperature (AT)
Property of AT cold advection neutral
cloud type strong cumulus cumuliform stratus
rainfall yes no yes no yes no
rank of icing severe moderate moderate light moderate light little
Table 8 rank for Icing
rank for Icing:
0-no icing
1-trace rime icingTRC-RIM
2-light mixed icingLGT-MXD
3-light rime icingLGT-RIM
4-light clear icingLGT-CLR
5-modetate mixed icingMDT-MXD
6-moderate rime icingMDT-RIM
7-moderate clear icingMDT-CLR
Define T-T
d
=ddp
wet layer temperaturet
-8<t<=0 -16<t<=-8 -22<t-16
t td
=ddp
ddp1 1<ddp3 ddp1 1<ddp3 ddp4
Vertical
decendi
ng rate
stable unstable stable unstable stable unstable stable unstable
2 >2 2 >2 2 >2 2 >2
type
of
icing
LGT-RIM MDT-CLR TRC-RIM LGT-CLR MDT-RIM MDT-MXD LGT-RIM LGT-MXD LGT-RIM
3 7 1 4 6 5 3 2 3
Table 9 RAOB Icing Project
Rap Icing Project ( Forbs and Thompson, 1986 )
(1) stratum icing
-12 <t0 , f85% with t<-12 , f<85% at upper level
(2) ice rain icing
t0 , f80% with t>0f=80% at upper level
(3) unstable condition icing
-20<t0, f56% at lower unstable level
(4) common icing
-16 <t0, f63%
VV Index ( Wang Xinwei, 2002)
10 / )] 49 /( ) 14 ( [ ] 2 ) 50 [( + = T T RH II
RH: relative humidity T: temperature
4 > I I 0 and -0.2pa/s light icing VV=1
7 > I I 4 and -0.2pa/s moderate icing VV=2
I I 7 and -0.2pa/s severe icing VV=3
Final criterions:
3-3-4 integrated icing forecast
icing area
rank of icing
5 indices
integration of overlapping technique
weighted averaging method
0 1 2 3
none light moderate severe
4 Phenomena
of SIGMET
Consulting
Information
Contents
Thunderstorm
Aircraft Bumps
Aircraft Icing
Severe Lee Waves
Severe Lee Waves
4
Severe Lee Waves
4
wave length 1.8 ~ 70Km, most is in the range of 5~20Km. Changes
with the height and the wind speed.
amplitude several hundred meters ~ 2Km. Most is 0.3~0.5Km.
vertical speed 2~6 ms
-1

Properties
{
The taking place of Lee Waves depends on two terms:
static stability of the air
wind speed
4-1 Scorer Parameter Used in Lee Waves Theory
2
2
2
2
1
z
u
u u
g
l
c
c
=
|
( Scorer, 1949 )
u

wind speed upright to the mountain ridge
T environmental temperature
g gravity acceleration
d
adiabatic vertical temperature descending rate of
dry air
vertical temperature descending rate of the
environment
1
( )
T
o o
| =
4-1 Scorer Parameter Used in Lee Waves Theory
2
2
2
2
1
z
u
u u
g
l
c
c
=
|
( Scorer, 1949 )
2
2
g
l
u
|
~
When there is wave fluctuations at the lee of
the mountain, l
2
is certain to decrease with the
height. As the wind speed always increases
with height and the stratification is stable or
increases only a little, l
2
at upper levels usually
are smaller than that at lower levels. The
smaller l
2
is changed with the height, the
possibility of Lee waves is larger.
4-2 arithmetic 2 in forecasting Lee Waves
favorable situation for Lee waves :
stable stratification
stability at low level larger than at high level
wind direction at low level consistent with that at high level---no inversion
2
ln
N g
z
u c
=
c
2
0 N >
layer with N
2
descending
below 500hPa
consistency in wind
direction at low and high
vertical section of wind
speed
X
Y
Z
apparent wave fluctuations
with wave length of 10-70Km
maximum vertical speed at
mid-level, small vertical speed
at low and high
Lee
Waves

4-3 integration in forecasting Lee Waves
As the approaches introduced previously,
the integrated multi-index-overlapping
techniques will also be applied in the forecast of
the severe mountain Lee Waves areas.
Thanks for your attention!

SIGMET Analysis

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

SIGMET Analysis

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

Executions and Techniques on

SIGMET Consulting Information

: air mass at 850hPa rising along dry-adiabatic curve till to

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen