Ilya Lyalin

IE 634 Final

n
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Part
Type
A
A
A
A
A
A
B
B
B
B
B

M1
120
115
116
120
112
98
230
225
218
210
190

M2
95
123
105
116
100
110
210
198
230
225
218

M3
100
99
114
100
98
116
190
236
199
200
212

M4
110
102
108
96
107
105
216
190
195
215
225

X bar
106.25
109.75
110.75
108
104.25
107.25
211.5
212.25
210.5
212.5
211.25

X1
20
15
16
20
12
-2
30
25
18
10
-10

X2
-5
23
5
16
0
10
10
-2
30
25
18

12
13
14
15
16
17
18

C
C
C
C
C
C
C

2150
2200
1900
1968
2500
2000
1960

2230
2116
2000
2250
2225
1900
1980

1900
2000
2115
2160
2475
2230
2100

1925
1950
1990
2100
2390
1960
2150

2051.3
2066.5
2001.3
2119.5
2397.5
2022.5
2047.5

150
200
-100
-32
500
0
-40

230
116
0
250
225
-100
-20

19
20

C
C

2320
2162

2150
1950

1900
2050

1940
2125

2077.5
2071.8

320
162

150
-50

Ta
Tb
Tc

100
200
2000
Mbar
Xi^-s
106.25 0.3233

UCL
0.18

LCL
-0.18

X3
0
-1
14
0
-2
16
-10
36
-1
0
12
100
0
115
160
475
230
100
100
50

X4
10
2
8
-4
7
5
16
-10
-5
15
25

Avg.
Dev.
6.25
9.75
10.75
8
4.25
7.25
11.5
12.25
10.5
12.5
11.25

Max
20
23
16
20
12
16
30
36
30
25
25

Min
-5
-1
5
-4
-2
-2
-10
-10
-5
0
-10

-75
-50
-10
100
390
-40
150

51.25
66.5
1.25
119.5
397.5
22.5
47.5

230
200
115
250
500
230
150

-100
-50
-100
-32
225
-100
-40

-60
125

77.5
71.75

320
162

-100
-50

Part
Type
A
A
A
A
A
A
B
B
B
B
B
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C

R
25
24
11
24
14
18
40
46
35
25
35
330
250
215
282
275
330
190
420
212

109.75
110.75
108
104.25
107.25
211.5
212.25
210.5
212.5
211.25
2051.3
2066.5
2001.3
2119.5
2397.5
2022.5
2047.5
2077.5
2071.8

0.5043
0.556
0.4138
0.2198
0.375
0.3177
0.3384
0.2901
0.3453
0.3108
0.1842
0.239
0.0045
0.4295
1.4287
0.0809
0.1707
0.2786
0.2579

0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18

-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18

Ri^s
1.2931
1.2414
0.569
1.2414
0.7241
0.931
1.105
1.2707
0.9669
0.6906
0.9669
1.1861
0.8986
0.7728
1.0136
0.9884
1.1861
0.6829
1.5096
0.762

UCL
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585
1.585

LCL
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415
0.415

CL
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Avg.
Ra
19.3333
Avg.
Rb
36.2
Avg. Rc 278.222

X Bar Chart

1.6
1.4
1.2
1
Xi^-s

0.8

UCL

0.6

LCL

0.4

CL

0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4

R Chart

11 13 15 17 19

1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2

Ri^s

UCL

0.8

LCL

0.6

CL

0.4
0.2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920

2. A

Autocorrelation Function for C1

(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)

1.0
0.8

Autocorrelation

0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
2

10
Lag

12

14

Partial Autocorrelation Function for C1

16

(with 5% significance limits for the partial autocorrelations)

1.0

18

X
2048
2025
2017
1995
1963
1943
1940
1947
1972
1983
1935
1948
1966
1954
1970

Molecular Weight Measurements

Regression (From Highlighted Equation)
0
2034.9148
2018.6515
2012.9947
1997.4385
1974.8113
1960.6693
1958.548
1963.4977
1981.1752
1988.9533
1955.0125
1964.2048
1976.9326
1968.4474

Residuals
2048
-9.9148
-1.6515
-17.9947
-34.4385
-31.8113
-20.6693
-11.548
8.5023
1.8248
-53.9533
-7.0125
1.7952
-22.9326
1.5526

2039
2015
2021
2010
2012
2003
1979
2006
2042
2000
2002
2010
1975
1983
2021
2051
2056
2018
2030
2023
2036
2019
2000
1986
1952
1988
2016
2002
2004
2018
2002
1967
1994
2001
2013
2016
2019
2036
2015
2032
2016
2000
1988

1979.761
2028.5509
2011.5805
2015.8231
2008.045
2009.4592
2003.0953
1986.1249
2005.2166
2030.6722
2000.974
2002.3882
2008.045
1983.2965
1988.9533
2015.8231
2037.0361
2040.5716
2013.7018
2022.187
2017.2373
2026.4296
2014.4089
2000.974
1991.0746
1967.0332
1992.4888
2012.2876
2002.3882
2003.8024
2013.7018
2002.3882
1977.6397
1996.7314
2001.6811
2010.1663
2012.2876
2014.4089
2026.4296
2011.5805
2023.6012
2012.2876
2000.974

59.239
-13.5509
9.4195
-5.8231
3.955
-6.4592
-24.0953
19.8751
36.7834
-30.6722
1.026
7.6118
-33.045
-0.2965
32.0467
35.1769
18.9639
-22.5716
16.2982
0.813
18.7627
-7.4296
-14.4089
-14.974
-39.0746
20.9668
23.5112
-10.2876
1.6118
14.1976
-11.7018
-35.3882
16.3603
4.2686
11.3189
5.8337
6.7124
21.5911
-11.4296
20.4195
-7.6012
-12.2876
-12.974

2010
1992.4888
2015
2008.045
2029
2011.5805
2019
2021.4799
2016
2014.4089
2010
2012.2876
2000
2008.045
2009
2000.974
1990
2007.3379
1986
1993.903
1947
1991.0746
1958
1963.4977
1983
1971.2758
2010
1988.9533
2000
2008.045
2015
2000.974
2032
2011.5805
(Regression Equation(Minitab) =586.774+.7071Xt-1

17.5112
6.955
17.4195
-2.4799
1.5911
-2.2876
-8.045
8.026
-17.3379
-7.903
-44.0746
-5.4977
11.7242
21.0467
-8.045
14.026
20.4195

The data is serially correlated, because the largest value (2048) is also the first value and the rest of the
data is dependent on this lag point.
B. The regression equation accurately predicts what the true values, because they are similar to the
original values, therefore it is an appropriate model.
C.

I-MR Chart of C1
1

U C L=57.4

Individual V alue

50
25

_
X=-0.9

0
-25
-50

LC L=-59.3
1

25

33

41
49
O bser vation

57

65

73

81

80

M oving Range

17

U C L=71.66

60
40
__
M R=21.93

20
0

LC L=0
1

17

25

33

41
49
O bser vation

57

65

73

81

According to the residual control chart, the process is in control. There is one point that falls out of
control, but this can be overlooked since it is only 1 out of 75 observations.

3. A
Run
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

P
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
-1

I
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1

L
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1

W
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1

F
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
-1

T
-1
1
-1
1
1
-1
1

C
-1
1
1
-1
1
-1
-1

M
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1
1

y
236
185
259
318
180
195
246

s
2.1
4.7
2.7
5.3
7.7
7.7
9

8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1

1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1
1

1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1

PxY
-236
185
-259
318
-180
195
-246
229
-196
203
-230
261
-168
197
-220
241
94
11.75

IxY
-236
-185
259
318
-180
-195
246
229
-196
-203
230
261
-168
-197
220
241
444
55.5

LxY
-236
-185
-259
-318
180
195
246
229
-196
-203
-230
-261
168
197
220
241
-212
-26.5

-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

WxY
-236
-185
-259
-318
-180
-195
-246
-229
196
203
230
261
168
197
220
241
-132
-16.5

FxY
-236
-185
259
318
180
195
-246
-229
196
203
-230
-261
-168
-197
220
241
60
7.5

-1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
TxY
-236
185
-259
318
180
-195
246
-229
196
-203
230
-261
-168
197
-220
241
22
2.75

-1
1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
CxY
-236
185
259
-318
180
-195
-246
229
-196
203
230
-261
168
-197
-220
241
-174
-21.75

Graph of Effects

Probability Plot of C1
Normal - 95% CI

99

95
90

Percent

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10

Mean
StDev
N
AD
P-Value

0.625
26.15
8
0.409
0.258

1
-1
1
1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
MxY
-236
185
259
-318
-180
195
246
-229
196
-203
-230
261
168
-197
-220
241
-62
-7.75

-1
1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1

229
196
203
230
261
168
197
220
241

3.2
11.5
10
2.9
15.3
11.3
11.7
16
6.8

Flight Time
Avg

222.75
1 .5*effectP
2 .5*effectI

5.875

3 .5*effectL
4 .5*effectW

-13.25

5 .5*effectF
6 .5*effectT
7 .5*effectC
8 .5*effectM

27.75
-8.25
3.75
1.375
-10.875
-3.875

From the probability plot, it shows that Wing length is the most significant effect, with body
length being the second most significant. Therefore, these are used in the regression equation.
Therefore the regression equation is y=222.275+27.75(I)-13.25(L)

B. Three experimental points in the path of steepest ascent are: Wing Length(I), Body Length(L),
and Taped Body (T). In order to increase flight time, Wing length should be increased and body length
should be decreased, because they are significant and will increase the flight time. Taped body is not
significant and therefore it is irrelevant in increasing flight time.