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PT PLN (PERSERO)

INDONESIA ELECTRICITY SUPPLY CHALLENGES:


TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2010-2019

Dosen : Ir.Syariffuddin Mahmudsyah,M.Eng.


1

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019


1. The electricity demand growth estimated average 9.3% per year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%)

2. The electricity sales from year 2010 onwards is forecasted by assuming an average economic growth of 6.2% and an average population growth of 1.17%.
It is anticipated that the sales for those years would not be constrained, as all of the power plants of the fast track program would have been already in operation. 3. Electrification ratio increase from 65% in 2009 to 91% by the end of 2019. 4. DSM program to shave and shift peak load has not been taken into account.
2

DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019

54 TWh 21 TWh

IB : 10.2%

JAVA-BALI SYSTEM
11 TWh
252 TWh 115 TWh

28 TWh

IT : 10,6%

JB : 8,97%

Electricity Demand growth average 9.3%/year


3

INDONESIA ELECTRICITY RATIO 2009 sekita63%


NAD 72,7%
Sumut 75,5% Riau + Kepri 44,7% Sumbar 67,6% Sumsel+Jambi+Bengkulu 50,3% Babel 48,4% Sulselrabar 55,8% Bali 76,2% Jateng+Yogya 70,2% Jatim 61,6% Maluku 53,5% Kalselteng 56,3% Kaltim 53,9% Category :
> 60 % 41 - 60 %

20 - 40 %

Kalbar 49,5%

Sulutenggo 51,2%

Sulteng 47,64%

Lampung 47,1% Jabar+Banten 64,95%

NTB 29,9%

NTT 21,7%

Papua + Irjabar 27,8%

POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING


1. Some ageing and inefficient oil-fired power plants are retired as soon as more effcient plants are available.
2. Generation expansion planning is made on least-cost principle, by looking for generation configuration that have minimum system costs.

3. However, development of renewables (especially geothermal and some hydro) is encouraged, by treating these as fixed plants prior to optimisation process.
4. Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) of <1 day/year is used as reliability criteria during planning process. The reserve margin is restricted within 35-50% range based on net dependable capacity. Rental power plants and excess power are not taken into account.
5

POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING


5. Gas supply is assumed to be available for Java Bali system, yet for outside Java Bali system gas-fired power plants are considered only if there is a definite gas supply. LNG receiving terminal is also considered as one option of gas supply.
Development of small scale coal-fired powerplants is used to substitute oil-fired powerplants for smaller systems, if there is no local primary energy resource available. Coal-fired power plants with unit size of 1,000 MW supercritical would be introduced into the Java-Bali system. PLN expects a bigger role from private sector in IPP development.

6.

7. 8.

GENERATION CAPACITY EXPANSION PLAN


Additional Capacity 53,219MW up to 2019 PLN Generation 32,636MW and IPP 20,583MW, Average 4800MW/year
7,000 6,000 5,000
2,763
2,238

1,258 936

890

4,000 3,000

413 3,461 2,896 5,141 3,329 2,282 4,699 3,178 1,479 1,440
1,738
IPP PLN

5,248 3,425 1,681

2,000 1,000 2009


117 1,054

3,553

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019
7

Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Jawa)


1. PLTU 1 Jateng-Rembang, 2x315MW, Cons. Zelan+Tronoh+Priamanaya, Contract Signed 21March2007 2. PLTU 2 Banten-Labuan, 2x300MW, Cons. Chengda+Truba Jurong, Contract Signed 21March2007 3. PLTU 1 Jabar-Indramayu, 3x330MW, Cons. Sinomach+CNEEC+PT Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 21March2007 4. PLTU 2 Jatim-Paiton, 1x660MW, Cons. Harbin PE+Mitra Selaras+Hutama Energi, Contract Signed 7August2007 5. PLTU 1 Banten-Suralaya, 1x625MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri, Contract Signed 12March2007 6. PLTU 1 Jatim-Pacitan 2x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7Augus2007
7. PLTU 2 Jabar-Pelabuhan Ratu, 3x350MW, Cons. Shanghai Electric+Maxima Infrastructure, Contract Signed 7August2007 8. PLTU 3 Banten-Teluk Naga, 3x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7August2007 9. PLTU 3 Jatim-Tg. Awar Awar, 2x350MW, Sinomach+CNEEC+Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 25April2008 10. PLTU 2 Jateng-Adipala Cilacap, 1x660MW, Contract 22December2008, COD 2012
8

Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa)


1. 2. 3. 4. PLTU 2 Sumut-Pangkalan Susu, 2x220MW, Cons. Guangdong+Nintec+Bagus Karya PLTU Kepri-Tg. Balai Karimun, 2x7MW, Cons. Shangdong+Rekadaya Elektrika PLTU NAD-Meulaboh, 2x110MW, Synohydro PLTU 1 Riau-Bengkalis, 2x10MW, Cons. Guandong Machinery+Modaco+Kelsri+Angkasa Buana

5. PLTU 2 Riau-Selat Panjang, 2x7MW, Bouwstead Maxitherm 6. PLTU Sumbar-Teluk Sirih, 2x212MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri 7. PLTU Lampung-Tarahan Baru, 2x100MW, Jiangxi Electric Power Design Institute+Adhi Karya

8. 9. 10. 11. 12.


13. 14. 15. 16. 17.

PLTU 3 Babel-Bangka Baru, 2x30MW, Cons. Truba,+China Shanghai Group PLTU 4 Babel-Belitung 2x16,5MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Poeser Indonesia PLTU 1 Kalbar-Parit Baru, 2x50MW, Cons. Bumi Rama Nusantara+Altons PLTU 2 Kalbar-Bengkayang, 2x27,5MW, Cons. Guangdong Machinery+Wijaya Karya PLTU Kalsel-Asam Asam, 2x65MW, Cons. Chengda+Wijaya Karya
PLTU 1 Kalteng, Pulang Pisau, 2x60MW PLTU 1 NTB-Bima, 2x10MW, Guandong+Modaco Enersys+Angkasa Buana Cipta PLTU 2 NTB-Lombok,2x25MW, Barata Indonesia PLTU 1 NTT-Ende 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika PLTU 2 NTT-Kupang, 2x16,5MW, Shandong Mavhinery+Poeser Indonesia
9

Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa)

18. PLTU Gorontalo, 2x25MW, Meta Epsi 19. PLTU 2 Sulut-Amurang, 2x25MW, Wijaya Karya 20. PLTU Sultra-Kendari, 2x10MW, Cons. Shangdong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika 21. PLTU Sulsel-Barru, 2x50MW, Cons. Hubei Hongyuan Engineering+Bagus Karya

22. PLTU Maluku Utara-Tidore, 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika


23. PLTU 3 Papua-Jayapura, 2x10MW, Cons. Modern Widya Technical+Boustead Maxitherm

10

Fast Track Program Phase 2


More geothermal projects will be developed, and large coal fired power plant in Java to be excluded from Fast Track Program Phase 2. In addition to that, Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage Project will be included in the program.
The composition of project will consist of: geothermal 48%, hydro 12%, gas combined cycle 14% and coal fired outside Java-Bali 26%.

The capacity of the projects will be as follows:


Java-Bali: geothermal 2,137 MW, hydro 1,000 MW and gas combined cycle 1,200 MW. Outside Java-Bali: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 174 MW, geothermal 2,596 MW, and gas combined cycle 240 MW.

Total Indonesia: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 1,174 MW, geothermal 4,733 MW and gas combined cycle 1,440 MW, totalling 9,963 MW.

Fast Track Program Phase 2

The second phase of fast track program will consist of 3,649 MW of PLNs project and 6,314 MW of IPP project.
The 1,200 MW gas combined cycle in Java-Bali is Muara Tawar Add-On 2,3,4 project. This project is very strategic in that it will meet the future demand by the year 2011-2012, however the feasibility of the project will subject to gas supply availability.

The 1,000 MW hydro project in Java-Bali is Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage. This project is very strategic as it will serve as peaking unit to replace the role of oil fired plants.
Most geothermal projects will be IPP. To ensure the success of the projects within the time frame of the program (up to 2014), geothermal developers must take immediate project preparation and PLN must make immediate geothermal IPP procurement.

Summary of Fast Track Program Phase 2

REGION

Steam Coal PP
(MW)

Combined Cycle PP
(MW)

Geo PP
(MW)

Hydro PP
(MW)

Total
(MW)

JAVA-BALI OUTSIDE JAVA-BALI TOTAL

1.200

2.137

1.000

4.337

2.616

240

2.596 4.733 (48%)

174 1.174 (12%)

5.626

2.616 (26%)

1.440 (14%)

9.963 (100%)

Map of Fast Track Program Phase 2


SUMATERA
PLTA : 174 MW PLTP : 2285 MW PLTU : 1100 MW PLTGU : 120 MW

KALIMANTAN
PLTU : 840 MW PLTGU : 120 MW

SULAWESI
PLTP : 195 MW PLTU : 418 MW

MALUKU
PLTP : 40 MW PLTU : 44 MW

PAPUA
PLTU : 114 MW

NTT
PLTP : 46 MW PLTU : 30 MW

TOTAL
PLTA PLTP PLTU PLTGU TOTAL : : : : : 1174 4733 2616 1440 9963 MW MW MW MW MW

JAMALI
PLTP : 2.137 MW PLTU : 0 MW PLTGU : 1.200 MW PLTA : 1.000 MW

NTB
PLTP :30 MW PLTU :70 MW

Investment of Fast Track Program Phase 2

PLN Plant Steam Coal PP Combined Cycle PP Geothermal PP Hydro PP Total Capacity (MW) 380 1,440 655 1,174 3,649 Investment
(Million USD)

IPP Capacity (MW) 2,236 4,078 6,314 Investment


(Million USD)

549 1,210 917 1,148 3,824

3,231 10,195 13,426

TRANSMISSION EXPANSION PLANNING JAVA-BALI 2008-2018


KEBUTUHAN TRANSMISI JAWA-BALI 2008-2018
Satuan kms

TRANSMISI 500 kV AC 500 kV DC 150 kV 70 kV TOTAL

2008

2009 159

2010 127

2011 4

2012 329

2013 920

2014 606

2015 444

2016 100 350

2017 60

2018 340

Total 3,089 350

564 14 578

3,497 80 3,735

1,403 10 1,541

1,120 22 1,146

727

482

560

282

644

276

12

9,567 126

1,056

1,402

1,166

726

1,094

336

352

13,132

KEBUTUHAN TRAFO JAWA-BALI 2008-2018


Satuan MVA

TRAFO 500/150 kV 150/70 kV 150/20 kV 70/20 kV TOTAL

2008 1,666 160 1,820 60 3,706

2009 4,666 490 4,800 460 10,416

2010 3,000 160 7,920 190 11,270

2011 2,000

2012 1,000

2013 4,000

2014 3,500

2015 3,000

2016 6,000

2017

2018 1,000 100

Total 29,832 910 45,156 1,620 77,518

4,036 90 6,126

3,570 90 4,660

3,480 80 7,560

3,330 80 6,910

3,690 150 6,840

5,370 190 11,560

5,160 130 5,290

1,980 100 3,180

16

Project Name
Transmisi 275 kV Sumatera (Payakumbuh Padangsidempuan) Transmisi 275 kV Rengat Garuda Sakti (220 km) Transmisi Sumatera-Jawa 500 kV HVDC

COD

Financing Plan

2012 Loan JICA 2014 unallocated 2016 USD 2,3 milyar, Loan JICA

Jawa-Bali Crossing 500 kV HVAC


Interkoneksi Kalbar-Serawak 275 kV HVAC Interkoneksi Sumatera-Malaysia 250 kV HVDC Perkuatan Transmisi Sistem Jakarta dan Bali Perkuatan Transmisi Kota-Kota Besar di Jawa Transmisi 500 kV AC Tj Jati - Ungaran Pemalang Mandirancan Indramayu (500 km)

2015 USD 328 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB


2012 USD 101 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB 2015 USD 353 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB/JICA 2011 USD 420 juta, KE 2012 2012 USD 250 juta, IBRD 2015 USD 300 juta, unallocated
17

DISTRIBUTION EXPANSION PLAN

ADDIONAL DISTRIBUTION FACILITY MV LV DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER ADDITIONAL COSTUMER

UP TO 2019: : 181,000KMS 16,500 KMS/YEAR : 249,500KMS 22,700 KMS/YEAR : 35,000 MVA 3,200 MVA/YEAR : 27,4 MILION 2,5 MIO/YEAR

18

PLN INVESTMENT
Juta USD
8,000.0 7,000.0 6,000.0 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 : USD 64,7 BILLION, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FOR LIFE EXTENSION/REFURBI SHMENT EXISTING GENERATION, SPARE IBT

Column1 Pembangkit Transmisi Distribusi Total Investasi

2009 3,777.0 1,065.8 598.2 5,441.0

2010 3,495.3 1,985.9 774.4 6,255.6

2011 3,188.3 1,939.7 1,080.4 6,208.4

2012 2,851.1 1,297.4 1,006.8 5,155.3

2013 3,143.0 1,145.7 947.5 5,236.1

2014 2,427.4 1,521.7 987.1 4,936.1

2015 2,854.7 2,072.9 1,165.6 6,093.3

2016 3,548.0 1,227.4 1,185.9 5,961.3

2017 4,270.4 592.2 1,300.2 6,162.8

2018 4,304.7 719.7 1,337.7 6,362.1

2019 4,721.4 851.6 1,304.4 6,877.4

Jumlah 38,581.2 14,419.9 11,688.3 64,689.4

19

PLN + IPP INVESTMENT


Juta USD
9,000.0 8,000.0 7,000.0 6,000.0 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 : USD 83,0 BILLION OR USD 7,6 BILLION PER YEAR, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FOR LIFE EXTENSION/REFURBIS MENT EXISTING GENERATION, SPARE IBT

Column1 Pembangkit Transmisi Distribusi Total Investasi

2009 4,858.0 1,065.8 598.2 6,522.0

2010 5,100.2 1,985.9 774.4 7,860.5

2011 5,099.0 1,939.7 1,080.4 8,119.1

2012 5,369.2 1,297.4 1,006.8 7,673.4

2013 5,810.6 1,145.7 947.5 7,903.8

2014 5,061.4 1,521.7 987.1 7,570.2

2015 4,901.0 2,072.9 1,165.6 8,139.6

2016 5,194.7 1,227.4 1,185.9 7,608.0

2017 5,483.1 592.2 1,300.2 7,375.5

2018 5,026.0 719.7 1,337.7 7,083.4

2019 4,987.8 851.6 1,304.4 7,143.8

Jumlah 56,891.0 14,419.9 11,688.3 82,999.2

20

PLN PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM


PROYEK
PLN On-going dan Committed Project Muara Karang Muara Tawar Blok #5 Priok Extension Suralaya #8 Labuan Teluk Naga/Lontar Pelabuhan Ratu Indramayu Rembang Pacitan Paiton Baru Tj. Awar-awar Cilacap Baru / Adipala Sub Total On-going & Committed Rencana Upper Cisokan PS Muara Tawar Add-On 2,3,4 Jawa Barat (LNG Terminal) PLTGU Baru PLTG Baru PLTU Baru Tangkuban Perahu 1 Kamojang Kesamben Kalikonto-2 Matenggeng PS Grindulu PS Sub Total Rencana Total PLN PLTA PLTGU PLTGU PLTGU PLTG PLTU PLTP PLTP PLTA PLTA PLTA PLTA 800 3,399 150 3,509 243 760 760 650 2,010 1,500 1,500 1,412 1,412 2,380 2,380 62 443 443 500 3,793 3,793 500 4,300 4,300 60 110 40 37 1,000 1,000 400 150 700 PLTGU PLTGU PLTGU PLTU PLTU PLTU PLTU PLTU PLTU PLTU PLTU PLTU PLTU 800 3,399 3,359 243 660 700 660 1,360 500 500 350 1,500 750 1,500 600 800 3,000 990 630 630 300 625 300 945 1,050 500 194 234 500 243

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

21

IPP PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM


PROYEK
IPP On-going dan Committed Project Kamojang #4 Darajat #3 Wayang Windu Bekasi Power Cikarang Listrindo Cirebon Paiton #3-4 Exp Tanjung Jati B Exp Celukan Bawang Sub Total On-going & Committed Rencana Banten Madura (1x400 MW) Bali Timur Sumatera Mulut Tambang PLTU Jawa Tengah (Infrastruktur) PLTP Percepatan Tahap 2 IPP Rajamandala Jatigede Sub Total Rencana Total IPP Total Tambahan TOTAL KAPASITAS SISTEM MW PLTU PLTU PLTU PLTU PLTU PLTP PLTA PLTA 110 910 22,796 230 3,629 26,030 710 4,219 30,209 175 2,440 2,683 32,816 565 815 1,575 34,391 175 365 1,000 785 47 110 1,942 1,942 3,952 38,343 1,845 1,845 3,345 41,688 2,110 2,110 3,522 45,210 1,000 445 250 200 1,200 400 PLTP PLTP PLTP PLTGU PLTGU PLTU PLTU PLTU PLTU 110 230 710 110 130 100 50 660 815 1,320 130 2,265 250 250 660

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

RESERVE MARGIN

29

34

41

39

33

36

35

35

22

SUMMARY
For the next 10 years
The average electricity demand would grow at 9.3%/year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%) Total additional generation capacity for Indonesia is 53,219 MW, consists of 32,636 MW of PLN projects and 20,583 MW of IPP projects

Development of renewable energy, especially geothermal, is encouraged, by additional 5,006 MW by 2018


Total additional transmission network would reach 44,257 kms for all voltage levels, and total additional of transformers would be 103,000 MVA for all voltage levels. Total additional distribution network is 175,013 kms for MV, 222,018 kms for LV, 30,877 MVA for distribution transformers and 25 million new customer connections.

23

SUMMARY
Total investment needed for Gen + Trans + Dis is US$ 64,69 billion (PLN only) or US$ 82,99 billion (PLN+IPP).
Investment needed for PLN power plant projects alone is US$ 38,581 billion, and for IPP projects is US$ 18,31 billion.

24

SUMMARY
Some strategic generation projects:
CCGT Muara Tawar Add-on 2, 3, 4, 1,200 MW, commissioned in 2011-2012. Fast Track Generation Project 10,000 MW Phase 2 with total capacity of 11,355 MW year 2011-2014 (this figure might change due to recent governments will to promote more geothernal). Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage of 4x250 MW in 2014 (WB) CFPP Jawa Tengah Infrastruktur (IFC) 2x1,000 MW in 2014-2015.

CFPP mine mouth in Sumatera 6x600 MW in 2016-2017 (transferred to Java Bali system) CCGT LNG Bojanegara 3x750 MW in 2015-2017.
25

SUMMARY
Some strategic transmission projects:
HVDC transmission between Sumatera and Java in 2016. Sub-sea 150 kV Java-Bali circuit 3,4, 2010 Batam Bintan interconnected system using sub-sea 150 kV, 2010 275 kV transmission connecting West Kalimantan Serawak in 2011 500 kV Java-Bali Crossing from Paiton to Kapal/near Denpasar in 2015

26

SISTEM TENAGA LISTRIK


Sistem tenaga listrik pada awal abad ke 20 secara dramatik semakin bertumbuh dan memiliki korelasi yang penting dengan industri. Tidak lama kemudian, peralatan-peralatan penting seperti mesin-mesin listrik, sistem peralatan kesehatan, dan sarana perlengkapan hiburan modern mulai memberikan keuntungan secara signifikan, sehingga biaya untuk menghasilkan tenaga listrik tidak lagi mahal bahkan cenderung menurun secara perlahan

Pusat-pusat Pembangkit Listrik

(1)

Bagaimana listrik dialirkan


PLTA PLTD PLTP PLTG PLTU TRAFO

INDUSTRI

BISNIS

RUMAH

STEP DOWN GARDU STEP-UP GARDU STEP DOWN

SOSIAL/ PUBLIK

PLTGU

MW

Daya Mampu Pembangkit Rp/kWh


Hydro (7%) HSD (17%) MFO (7%) COAL (42%) 5-18

MW

Total termasuk Rumah Tangga Total tanpa Rumah Tangga Industry

1650-2475
158-259 180-452 178-541 5-18
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Rumah Tangga Bisnis Social + Public


20 22 24

GAS (19%)

00

06

12

18
WBP

22

24

GEO (5%) ROR (2%)

Waktu

WBP

Waktu

POLA PRODUKSI

POLA KONSUMSI

INDUSTRI

BISNIS

PLTA PLTD PLTP PLTG PLTU PLTGU


GARDU STEP-UP

RUMAH
TRAFO STEP DOWN GARDU STEP DOWN

SOSIAL/ PUBLIK

SISTEM PEMBANGKIT

SISTEM TRANSMISI

SISTEM DISTRIBUSI

KONSUMEN

PT PLN (PERSERO)

DISTRIBUSI JAWA TIMUR AREA PELAYANAN & JARINGAN BANYUWANGI

Generation

GI SUTET 150/500 kV.


SUTET 500 kV.

150 kV / 500 kV
Saluran Udara Tegangan Extra Tinggi (SUTET) Saluran Udara Tegangan Tinggi (STET)

20 kV / 220 V

GI SUTET 500/150 kV. Transmisi 150 kV. GI 150 / 20 KV. Distribusi 20 kV. Trafo Distribusi 20 kV/220 V

500 kV / 150 kV

150 kV / 20 kV

Jaringan teg 220 V

Peranan Transformator dalam Sistem Tenaga


Transformator adalah suatu peralatan statis yang terdiri dari beberapa koil, yang dikopel melalui suatu rangkaian magnetik, yang menghubungkan dua level tegangan yang berbeda (secara umum) dalam suatu sistem elektrik yang memungkinkan pertukaran energi diantara terminal-terminal dalam suatu arah melalui medan magnetik.

Definisi Keandalan
Keandalan adalah suatu probabilitas kemampuan suatu peralatan atau sistem untuk dapat berfungsi sesuai dengan fungsi yang diinginkan selama jangka waktu yang ditetapkan[1]. Keandalan dari setiap peralatan atau sistem, tidaklah sama karena hal ini bergantung dari periode waktu dan fungsi yang ditetapkan. Dengan demikian keandalan dapat digunakan untuk membandingkan dan memprediksi kontinuitas kerja dan ketahanan kerja dari suatu peralatan atau sistem dengan peralatan atau sistem yang lain. Sistem adalah gabungan dari peralatan-peralatan yang disusun menurut pola tertentu dan secara komprehensif peralatan tersebut memiliki satu tujuan tertentu dimana keandalan dari suatu sistem distribusi ditentukan oleh keandalan dari masing-masing peralatan-peralatan yang membentuk suatu sistem. Sedangkan yang dimaksud dengan analisa keandalan dari suatu sistem atau peralatan adalah suatu analisa dari kemampuan dan kontinuitas suatu sistem/peralatan untuk berfungsi sesuai dengan waktu yang ditetapkan.

[1] IEEE, 2007. IEEE Recommended Practice for The Design of Reliable Industrial and Commercial Power System. p.8,13

Adapun konsep evaluasi kegagalan meliputi :


1) Kegagalan

Kegagalan adalah suatu kondisi ketidakmampuan suatu peralatan untuk melaksanakan suatu fungsi yang diperlukan. Banyak faktor yang menyebabkan suatu peralatan mengalami kegagalan, antara lain : Faktor alam, faktor manusia dan faktor dari peralatan tersebut. Keadaan lingkungan selama disain, pembuatan maupun operasional akan menuntun kepada kegagalan. Pada saat terjadi suatu kegagalan maka suatu peralatan yang mengalami kegagalan akan mengintervensi peralatan lain. Mode kegagalan adalah proses pengamatan dan pengevaluasian efek berantai dari suatu kegagalan peralatan. Pada saat terjadi suatu kegagalan pada suau peralatan, pasti ada penyebab-penyebabnya. Pada mekanisme kegagalan ini akan dievaluasi penyebab-penyebab kegegagalan beserta kronologis terjadinya suatu kegagalan

2) Penyebab Kegagalan

3) Mode Kegagalan

4) Mekanisme Kegagalan

Sistem Operasi Jaringan Distribusi


Sistem distribusi merupakan bagian dari sistem tenaga listrik secara keseluruhan, sistem distribusi ini berguna untuk menyalurkan tenaga listrik dari sumber daya besar (Bulk Power Source) sampai ke konsumen.

Pada umumnya sistem distribusi tenaga listrik di


Indonesia terdiri atas beberapa bagian, sebagai berikut

Gardu Induk Distribusi (Distribution Substation): Merupakan gardu yang bertugas membagi dalam beberapa penyulang (feeder) dari 150kV menjadi 20kV. Distribusi Primer : Dari keluaran (outgoing) penyulang, tenaga listrik disalurkan melalui distribusi primer dengan tegangan sebesar 20kV/6kV menuju ke pusat pusat beban melalui SUTM (Saluran Udara Tegangan Menegah) dan SKTM (Saluran Kabel Tegangan Menengah). Distribusi Sekunder : Terdiri dari dua jenis, yaitu Saluran Udara Tegangan Rendah (SUTR) dan Saluran Kabel Tegangan Rendah (SKTR), tegangan yang berada pada saluran ini dari distribusi primer melalui transformator distribusi menjadi 380/220 V.

SAIFI (System Average Interruption Frequency Index)


SAIFI adalah indeks keandalan dari hasil pengukuran frekuensi gangguan sistem rata-rata tiap tahun. Berisi informasi tentang frekuensi gangguan permanent rata-rata tiap konsumen dalam suatu area yang dievaluasi.
Jumlah Total Konsumen Terganggu SAIFI = Jumlah Total Konsumen Yang Terlayani

SAIDI (System Average Interruption Duration Index)


SAIDI adalah indeks keandalan hasil pengukuran durasi gangguan sistem ratarata tiap tahun. Indeks ini berisi tentang frekuensi gangguan permanent rata-rata tiap konsumen dalam suatu area yang dievaluasi.

Jumlah Total Durasi Gangguan Konsumen SAIDI= Jumlah Total Konsumen Yang Dilayani

MAIFI (Momentary Average Interruption Frequency Index)


MAIFI adalah indeks keandalan hasil pengukuran dari durasi waktu gangguan sementara sistem rata-rata tiap tahun Indeks ini berisi tentang frekuensi gangguan sementara rata-rata tiap konsu men dalam suatu wilayah yang dievaluasi

Jumlah Konsumen Mengalami Pemadaman Sementara MAIFI= Jumlah Total Konsumen Yang Dilayani

CAIDI (Customer Average Interruption Duration Index)


CAIDI adalah indeks keandalan hasil pengukuran dari durasi gangguan konsumen rata-rata tiap tahun. Indeks ini berisi tentang waktu rata-rata untuk penor malan kembali gangguan tiap-tiap konsumen dalam satu tahun.

Jumlah Total Durasi Gangguan Konsumen CAIDI= Jumlah Total Konsumen Terganggu

Reliability Index Assesment (RIA)


RIA (Reliability Index Assessment) adalah suatu teknik standar untuk menganalisa indeks keandalan pada sistem secara sistematis. Gangguan/kegagalan komponen secara komprehensif dan sistematis dianalisa dan dicari mode kegagalannya. Selanjutnya setiap mode kegagalan yang sudah dianalisa, didaftarkan pada RIA worksheet.
Topologi Sistem

Laju Kegagalan Peralatan Repair Time Switching Time Reliability Index Assessment

SAIFI

SAIDI

MAIFI

Mekanisme Pengaman Pemulihan Sistem

Gardu Induk Pada Sistem Distribusi


Gardu Induk adalah suatu sistem instalasi, terdiri dari peralatan listrik yang berfungsi untuk : Transformasi tenaga listrik tegangan tinggi yang satu ke tegangan tinggi yang lainnya atau ke tegangan menengah. Pengukuran, pengawasan operasi serta pengaturan pengamanan dari sistem tenaga listrik. Pengaturan daya ke gardu-gardu induk lain melalui tegangan tinggi dan gardu-gardu distribusi melalui feeder tegangan menengah.

Gardu Listrik dapat dibagi menjadi dua


Menurut lokasi dan peranannya.

1. Gardu Induk.
Adalah gardu listrik yang mendapat daya dari saluran transmisi atau sub transmisi suatu sistem tenaga listrik berasal dari pembangkit-pembangkit listrik, untuk kemudian menyalurkannya ke daerah beban (industri, kota, konsumen pribadi, dll) melalui saluran distribusi primer.

2. Gardu Distribusi.

Adalah gardu yang mendapat daya dari saluran distribusi primer yang menyalurkan tenaga listrik ke pemakaian dengan tegangan menengah. Menurut penempatan peralatannya.
Gardu Induk Pasangan Dalam (Gas Insulated Switchgear)

Gardu induk dimana semua peralatannya (CT, PMT, PMS, busbar, panel kontrol) di pasang di dalam gedung (kompartemen).

Adapun keuntungan dari kontruksi GIS adalah : Membutuhkan lahan yang sempit dibandingkan dengan kontruksi gardu induk konvensionalgardu induk konvensional Perawatan yang lebih mudah Peralatannya lebih sederhana. Lebih aman, karena semua peralatan berada dalam enclosure yang tertutup. Adapun kerugian dari kontruksi GIS adalah : Pembangunannya membutuhkan biaya yang lebih mahal jika dibandingkan konvensional. Oleh karena itu pembangunan gardu induk menggunakan kontruksi GIS atau konvensional disesuaikan dengan dana dan luas lahan yang diperlukan. Gardu Induk pasangan luar. Gardu induk dimana semua peralatannya (LA, CT, PT, Cable Head) di tempatkan di udara terbuka.

Peralatan dan fasilitas penting yang menunjang untuk kepentingan pengaturan distribusi tenaga listrik yang ada di Gardu Induk

Sisi Tegangan Tinggi Transformator Daya Pemutus Tenaga (CB) Saklar Pemisah (DS) Pengubah transformator Berbeban Transformator Arus (CT) Transformator Tegangan (PT) Sisi Tegangan Menengah Pemutus Tenaga trafo (incoming circuit Breaker) Pemutus Tenaga Kabel (outgoing Circuit Breaker) Trafo Arus (CT) Trafo Tegangan (PT) Peralatan Kontrol
Panel Kontrol Panel Relay Meter-meter pengukuran

BEBAN

PEMBANGKIT

Sistem DISTRIBUSI RADIAL dibagi empat :

SUMBER PEMBAGKIT

MAIN FEEDER LATERAL FUSE


DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER

LATERAL FEEDER

KE PUSAT PUSAT BEBAN

SUMBER 3 3 3

AREA BEBAN -1

TIE SWITCH

SECTIONALIZ ER DS

AREA BEBAN -2

AREA BEBAN -3

KE PUSAT BEBAN

SUMBER

EXPRES FEEDER

BACK FEEDER

LOAD CENTRE

BACK FEEDER SALURAN DISTRIBUSI PRIMER

SALURAN DISTRIBUSI SEKUNDER BEBAN KONSUMEN

SUMBER 3

d) SISTEM DISTRIBUSI RADIAL DAERAH FASA

AREA FASA R 1

AREA FASA S

LATERAL FEEDER

AREA FASA T

KE PUSATPUSAT BEBAN

Terdapat beberapa macam bentuk jaringan distribusi. Namun jaringan distribusi sebagian besar berbentuk radial (baik jaringan distribusi primer maupun sekunder).

Keuntungan dari jaringan distribusi radial: Mudah untuk mengamankan arus gangguan yang terjadi. Sangat kecil kemungkinan untuk terjadi arus gangguan pada hampir keseluruhan jaringan. Mudah untuk mengontrol tegangan. Mudah untuk memprediksi dan mengontrol aliran

Berikut ini adalah gambar jaringan distribusi primer yang sering digunakan pada tipe radial

Sistem Ring (Loop)


Bentuk jaringan dari sistem ring (Loop) merupakan rangkaian tertutup dan seperti cincin (Ring). Dengan menggunakan sistem ini, beban bisa disuplai dari dua penyulang jika salah satu saluran terjadi gangguan. Sehingga kontinuitas penyaluran tenaga listrik lebih baik dari sistem radial dan panjang jaringan yang ditanggung oleh dua penyulang tersebut bisa lebih pendek, sehingga voltage drop-nya semakin kecil.

Sistim RING (LOOP) ini terdiri atas dua jenis, yaitu :


a) Sistem Open Loop. Pada tipe ini, dilengkapi dengan sakelar yang Normaly Open (NO) diantara saluran penyulang yang satu dengan saluran penyulang lainnya. b) Sistem Close Loop. Pada tipe ini, dilengkapi dengan sakelar yang Normaly Closed (NC).

SISTEM RING (LOOP)


SUMBER MAIN FEEDER MAIN FEEDER LATERAL LATERAL

SECTIONALIZ ER DS

LOOP TIE DS

Sistem Jaring (Mesh)


Sistem ini menyediakan banyak pilihan saluran dan sumber. Jadi tidak hanya salurannya yang lebih dari satu tetapi sumbernya juga lebih dari satu. Tipe ini lebih baik daripada radial maupun loop. Spesifikasi tipe ini adalah : a. Kontinuitas penyaluran daya paling terjamin. b. Kualitas tegangan baik, dan rugi daya pada saluran amat kecil. Dibanding dengan bentuk / tipe yang lain, paling fleksibel dalam melayani perkembangan dan pertumbuhan beban. Memerlukan biaya investasi yang mahal. Jadi tipe ini lebih banyak diterapkan pada jaringan transmisi (SUTT dan SUTET).

SISTEM JARING (MESH)

SUMBER A SALURAN DISTRIBUSI SEKUNDER

SUMBER B SALURAN DISTRIBUSI PRIMER SALURAN TRANSMISI

SUMBER D

SUMBER C

SISTEM SPINDLE
Yang menjadi ciri khas dari sistem spindle adalah saluran cadangan (express) dimana pada kondisi normal tidak dibebani namun bertegangan dan adanya gardu hubung yang merupakan titik pertemuan dari semua penyulang primer, yang berisi rel daya sejumlah saklar yang menghubungkan masing-masing penyulang utama ke rel tersebut. Di sepanjang saluran juga terdapat Load Break Switch (LBS) yang berguna untuk keperluan manuver bila ada gangguan pada saluran kerja (working feeder).
Jika terjadi gangguan pada salah satu penyulang yang terletak diantara dua gardu maka setelah gangguan dilokalisir, pelayanan dapat dipulihkan dengan satu bagian mendapatkan saya langsung dari GI sedangkan bagian yang lain mendapatkan daya dari GI yang sama setelah melalui penyulang express dan gardu hubung.

Keuntungan pada sistem spindel adalah :


Memiliki kontinuitas penyaluran daya terjamin. Kualitas tegangan baik karena rugi daya pada saluran paling kecil. Memudahkan dalam mencari lokasi gangguan. Memperkecil jumlah pelangggan yang padam

Sedangkan kelemahan pada sistem ini adalah :


Biaya investasi yang besar. Perlu tenaga trampil dalam pengoperasian. Perlu koordinasi perencanaan yang teliti dan rumit.

SALURAN UDARA

SALURAN KABELBAWAH TANAH

Evaluasi Keuntungan dari Saluran Udara dan Saluran Bawah Tanah

Saluran Udara Biaya : Sangat menguntungkan. Secara keseluruhan, biaya sangat rendah Umur Teknis : Cukup lama, sekitar 30-50 tahun, sedangkan saluran bawah tanah memiliki umur teknis sekitar 20-40 tahun.

Saluran Bawah Tanah Estetika : Sangat menguntungkan, hampir tidak ada bagian yang keluar secara visual Keamanan :Sangat aman dari masyarakat , karena masyarakat hampir tidak pernah melihat secara visual pada permukaan tanah. Keandalan : Secara signifikan Keandalan : Pada saat terjadi memiliki sedikit gangguan, tetapi gangguan, durasi waktu gangguan durasi waktu gangguan cukup cukup pendek karena gangguan panjang karena gangguan cukup mudah ditemukan dan dapat sulit untuk ditemukan dan waktu diperbaiki dengan cepat perbaikannya pun cukup lama Pembebanan : Dapat diberikan Operasional dan perbaikan : Biaya pembebanan overload perawatan cukup kecil

Sistem Pengaman pada Sistem Jaringan Distribusi


Agar suatu sistem distribusi dapat berfungsi dengan secara baik, gangguan-gangguan yang terjadi pada tiap bagian harus dapat dideteksi dan dipisahkan dari sistem lainnya dalam waktu yang secepatnya, bahkan kalau dapat, mungkin pada awal terjadinya gangguan. Keberhasilan berfungsinya proteksi memerlukan adanya suatu koordinasi antara berbagai alat proteksi yang dipakai. Adapun fungsi sistem pengaman adalah : Melokalisir gangguan untuk membebaskan perlatan dari gangguan. Membebaskan bagian yang tidak bekerja normal, untuk mencegah kerusakan. Memberi petunjuk atau indikasi atas lokasi serta macam dari kegagalan Untuk dapat memberikan pelayanan listrik dengan keandalan yang tinggi kepada konsumen. Untuk mengamankan keselamatan manusia terutama terhadap bahaya yang ditimbulkan listrik.

Dalam usaha menjaga kontinuitas pelayanan tenaga listrik dan menjaga agar peralatan pada jaringan primer 20 kV tidak mengalami kerusakan total akibat gangguan, maka mutlak diperlukan peralatan pengaman.

Adapun peralatan pengaman yang digunakan pada jaringan tegangan menengah 20 kV terbagi menjadi :
1)Peralatan pemisah atau penghubung 2)Peralatan pengaman arus lebih 3)Peralatan pengaman tegangan lebih.

Peralatan Pemisah atau Penghubung


Fungsi dari pemutus beban atau pemutus daya (PMT) adalah untuk mempermudah dalam membuka dan menutup suatu saluran yang menghubungkan sumber dengan beban baik dalam keadaan normal maupun dalam keadaan gangguan. Jenis pemutus yang digunakan pada gardu adalah : Circuit Breaker (Pemutus Tenaga) Disconnecting Switch (DS) Sedangkan pemutus pada jaringan adalah : Load Break Switch (LBS) Sectionalizer / Automatic Vacum Switch (AVS)

Jenis Circuit Breaker yang dipakai pada sistem distribusi adalah :


Air Break Circuit Breaker Oil Circuit Breaker Minimum Oil Circuit Breaker Air Blast Circuit Breaker Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6) Circuit Breaker Vacuum Circuit Breaker

Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power


Dr. Martin Stickel ICCI International Energy and Environment Fair and Conference Isanbul, 14th May 2010

Agenda

Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power

Financial Results depending on Plant Location


Summary

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

The Fichtner Group


Established in 1922 still a family-owned concern Germanys biggest independent engineering and consultancy enterprise More than 1700 employees worldwide 450 in our Home Office Project experience in 150 countries

Over 1200 ongoing projects around 650 in our Home Office


Active on behalf of: enterprises in the central services and utilities sector energy-intensive industries international development and commercial banks government and communal institutions and authorities Total turnover of 179 million in 2008 67% international turnover
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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

FICHTNER Independent Engineering and Consulting


Founded in 1922 and 100% family owned since then Germanys biggest independent engineering and consultancy company Staff strength: Turn-over 2008: Home office (Stuttgart) ca. Home office: 122 million EUR 450 Total: 179 million EUR Total ca. 1,700 On a global level FICHTNER is on average involved in approx.1,200 projects with an overall investment volume of about 60 billion EUR. FICHTNER is represented in more than 50 countries worldwide.

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

FICHTNER Turkey
FICHTNER has been working for more than 40 years on various projects in Turkey Established in July 2008, FICHTNER Turkey is 100% owned by FICHTNER Germany Completed numerous projects mainly in the private sector Brought together experienced international experts & local engineers/consultants and worked on the most important projects of Turkey Vision of FICHTNER Turkey: Become one of the biggest well established engineering companies in the region Provide state-of-the art engineering and technical services to meet the demands of the growing energy market Make use of Turkeys young population: Train local engineers and technical staff to make them compatible with international experts Use them for the most challenging projects in the region and worldwide Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

71

Renewable Energy Technologies Hydropower Wind Power Solarthermal Power Photovoltaic Geothermal Power Solid Biomass Sewage and Landfill Gas Biogas

Biomass to Liquid (BtL)


Fuel Cells

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Our Range of Engineering and Consultancy Services


Project phase
Concept study

Our service
Development and review of realization concepts Investigation of technical and

Objective
Definition of approach

Feasibility study of

Financing agreement/depiction

financial viability
Conceptual and layout engineering Drawing up permit application documents

financial performance
Construction and operation permits

Detail engineering

Drawing up tender documents

Project- and client-specific tender documents


Plant procurement to meet time and cost requirements Functional plant Production-ready plant

Tendering and quality, contract award Construction and installation

Bid evaluation and contract negotiations Site supervision

Commissioning / test operation Supervision of commissioning and tests


73

Operation

Regular Photovoltaics versus Check of routine operation Conference Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010

commercial utilization

Agenda

Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power

Financial Results depending on Plant Location


Summary

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Solar Irradiation in Turkey

Turkey shows similar irradiation characteristics as Spain, one of the largest solar energy markets.

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Worldwide Installed PV Supply

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

PV Grid Parity in Germany

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft

Solar Technologies
Solar Thermal NonConcentrating SolarChimney Linear-focusing (single axis) Linear Fresnel Parabolic Trough Solar Power Plants Photovoltaic (PV)

Point-focusing (dual axias) Central Receiver Dish Concentrating (CPV) NonConcentr.

Concentration ratio and Temperature increasing Thermal Energy Storage Rankine Cycle (ST) Wind Turbine Integrated Solar Combined Cycle Brayton Cycle
Stirling Engine

DC-AC Inverter

Electric Power
78 Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Photovoltaics

Source: Juwi AG Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

79

Photovoltaic Power - Module Types


Mono-crystalline silicon: Most efficient technology (efficiencies of around 18% (commercial) to 28% (research) Multi-crystalline silicon: Cheaper than mono-crystalline silicon but also less efficient. Research cells approach 24% efficiency, and commercial modules approach around 16% efficiency. Thin film: Cheaper than crystalline silicon but less efficient. Various materials (amorphous silicon, Cadmium Telluride, Copper Indium Diselluride (CIS))
Selection of the technology depending on: site, irradiation, temperature, costs vs. efficiency etc.

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Photovoltaic Power - Module Tracking

Fix, optimum tilt angle Horizontal N-S axis 30 tilt axis Vertical axis, module tilt 50 Biaxial tracking
81

Mean annual radiation gain in Central Europe 0% 11.5% 22.9%

Mean annual radiation gain in Southern Europe 0% 17.4% 29.8%

23.1%
27.2%

29.6%
34%

Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)


General Technology Principle
Concentration of solar energy flow (direct irradiation required) Conversion of Solar irradiation into high temperature heat Conversion of high temperature heat into mechanical energy Conventional power generation technology

Characteristics
High energy density Conventional components used (hybridisation possible) Economy of scale leads to large scale plants Possibility of thermal energy storage

Types of Solar Thermal Power Plants


Parabolic Trough Fresnel Trough Solar Tower (Central Receiver) Parabolic Dish (Dish/Stirling) Solar Chimney

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Parabolic Trough

395C

Steam 370C, 100bar

Solar HX

Storage

Steam turbine 30 MW

G~

Coolin g Tower
Air

Air and vapour

Air

295C

Condenser

Parabolic Trough Field Electricit y to the grid

Source: Fichtner
83 Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

CSP Advantage: Operation without Sunshine


Thermal storage transfers excess solar heat into evening hours.

Solar Heat
120 100
Solar Heat (MW-th)

21. Jun
dumping to storage from storage direct used

80 60 40 20 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Time (hr.)

Extension of full load operation to night time hours Reduction of part load operation (cloud transients) Dispatchable power generation

84

State-of-the-art technology: Two-tank molten

Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Trends & Expectations

Capital Costs PV plants:


2.5-4 /Wp EPC prices depending on module type and tracking system Decreasing module costs (future 1/Wp), i.e. even lower EPC prices

Capital Costs CSP plants:


4-6 /Wp (parabolic trough, 50MW) Due to technological innovations and economies of scale decreasing electricity generation costs expected

Peak load or base load


PV: Peak load plants purely depending on global solar irradiation CSP: Possibility of energy storage & relatively high predictability of plant availability

85

Project Capacities
PV: CSP: 1kW 50MW Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference Parabolic trough 10MW 300MW

Agenda

Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power

Financial Results depending on Plant Location


Summary

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Feasibility of Solar Projects

Plant Concept & Simulation of Electricity Generation

Feed-in Tariff

Revenues for Electricity Sales

Plant CAPEX Plant OPEX


Fichtner Cost Database

Modelling of Project Economics


Net present value Internal rate of return Levelized electricity costs

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

PV Performance Projection - Example

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

PV Performance Projection - Example

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Site Assessment

Source: Google Maps

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Site Assessment
Example: Johannesburg, South Africa
0.25

0.20
LEC [/kWh] 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Thin film Polycrystalline Monocrystalline Parabolic trough fixed 1-axis 2-axis

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Sensitivity of O&M Costs

100% 0% -1% -2% Change of LEC [%]

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

-3%
-4% -5% Thin film (fixed) Polycrystalline (fixed)

-6%
-7% -8% -9%

Monocrystalline (1-axis)
Parabolic trough Change of O&M costs (100%=O&M costs of Montalto)

-10%

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Sensitivity of Land Costs


4% 3% 2%
Change of LEC Thin film (fixed)

Monocrystalline(fixed)
Polycrystalline (fixed)

1% 0% -1% -2% -3%

Parabolic trough

-4% +100 +80 + 60 + 40 + 20 % % % % % 0 - 20 - 40 - 60% - 80 -100 % % % %

Change land costs

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Sensitivity of Ambient Temperature


8% 6%

Change of LEC

4%

2%
0% -2% -4%

Thin film

Monocrystalline

-6%
-8% 11.0 12.8 14.6

Polycrystalline
16.4 18.3 20.1

Parabolic trough
21.9 23.7 25.6

Ambient temperature [C]

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Sensitivity of Direct Normal Irradiation


25%

Thin film
20%

Monocrystalline Change of LEC


15% 10% 5% 0%

Polycrystalline Parabolic trough

-5%
-10% 1,254 1,463 1,671 1,881 2,089 2,299 2,508 2,716 2,926

DNI [kWh/a]
Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

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Agenda

Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power

Financial Results depending on Plant Location


Summary

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Global Annual Solar Cell Production

Source: Photon
97 Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

PV: Projection of Module Production Capacity


35000

30000

Recession Conservative

25000

Accelerated

20000

MWp
15000 10000 5000 0

Recession Conservative Accelerated

2003 675.3 675.3 675.3

2004 1049.8 1049.8 1049.8

2005 1407.7 1407.7 1407.7

2006 1984.6 1984.6 1984.6

2007 3073 3073 3073

2008 5455.8 5455.8 5455.8

2009 5214.1 5990.2 6555.2

2010 5425.4 6808.1 8507.2

2011 2012 2013 6207.7 11611 15569.5 8770.3 11731.9 15732.7 12202.2 18718.2 28795.6

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Source: Paula Mints, Navigant Consulting, Inc., 2009 Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Announced CSP Projects


10,000 9,000
8,000

Cumulative Installed Capacity [MW]

7,000

6,000 5,000 4,000


3,000 2,000

1,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Accelerated

Base Case

Slow Development

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Summary
No general better technology but project specific technology selection
Size, topography, irradiation (global / direct), Accessibility, grid condition Feed-in tariffs Relevance of dispatchability / storage

Design optimization required for each project Thorough project development and due diligence process
Reliable design Bankable EPC and O&M Contracts
performance and plant acceptance criteria and procedures liquidated damages and incentive schemes

Reliable Yield Forecasts

Enormous potential for solar technologies in Turkey and worldwide


100 Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Contact
Whom to contact?
FICHTNER GmbH & Co. KG Bykdere Cad. 87/5 34387 Mecidiyeky Istanbul Turkey FICHTNER GmbH & Co. KG Sarweystrae 3 70191 Stuttgart Germany Dr. Martin Stickel Manager PV / Solar Technologies Phone Fax Mobile E-Mail +49 (0)711 8995-684 +49 (0)711 8995-495 +49 (0) 172 6358294 martin.stickel@fichtner.de

Phone Fax Mobile E-Mail

212- 2171767 212-2178124 0549-2171775 Rabia.Recla@fichtner.de

www.fichtner.de
www.fichtner.com.tr

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Typical Project Constellation


Investor

Lender
Loans

Equity

Insurance company
Policies

Developer

Project Rights

Solar Project
Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV)

Operation Contract

Management

Power purchase agreement EPC Contract

O&M Contract

Utility

Service Company

EPC contractor(s)

Objectives:

102

Implementation of a long life power plants with high energy yield and availability Proper and safe operation complying with the relevant requirements Low cost, high return on investment
Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Typical Solar Power Technical Due Diligence


Phase I: Pre-Financial Close Due Diligence Project structure and obligations of project parties Solar radiation measurements and long-term global solar radiation assumptions Technical concept such as layout, grid connection, civil works Energy yield assessment as to the reliability of the input data, simulation, methods and results (SOLPRO / PVSYST) Suitability of site (e.g. radiation, temperature, site complexity, soil conditions) Contracts / project agreements including mainly: EPC-Contract, grid connection agreement, PPA, O&M, technical and administrative operation Adequacy of the technical warranties and verification procedures (e.g. performance test, availability, technical characteristics) Qualification of involved parties, QC/QA concept Permits and licenses (status, constraints e.g. due to noise, etc.) Project insurances Time schedule / Project management / risk management Financial model: elaboration of model or providing input data to banks / financial advisors model Photovoltaics versus sensitivities risk Turkey 2010 Conference Analysis of project Concentrated Solar /Power assessment

Facilitate investment / financing decisions

Conceptual study and decisionmaking phase Engineering and contract award

Construction
Operation
103

Typical Solar Power Technical Due Diligence


Phase II: Construction Monitoring
Facilitate investment / financing decisions

Construction monitoring (compliance with contract / specifications) Compliance with project schedule Review of EPC contractors / owners progress report Site and workshop inspections Preparation of monthly or quarterly progress reports

Conceptual study and decisionmaking phase Engineering and contract award Construction

Phase III: Testing and completion certificate


Certification of completion Review of commissioning and of trial operation Attendance and monitoring of the performance and reliability tests Review of performance test results in view of liquidated damages requests PV plant installation and mounting inspections Phase IV: Monitoring during term of project loan facilities Carry out annual site visits Preparation of (semi-) annual operating status reports including operating performance (availability, power performance, energy yield) maintenance and extraordinary events
Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Operation
104

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PV World Market 2008

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 ConferenceBundesverband

Solarwirtschaft

Integrated Expertise
Energy Technology Power Supply
Comprehensive technological know-how as foundation conventional technologies innovative technologies / renewable energies Extensive planning experience in all project phases Classical planning services are rounded off by our over-arching expertise in consultancy

Environmental Technology Water and Infrastructure


IT, Economics and Finances

Technologies

Planning

Consultancy

Broad-based range of services from one source


Complete solutions on a sound technical and economic footing
107 Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC)

Stack Exhaust 100C 395C Steam 540C, 100bar

Solar HX Storag e

HRSG
Steam turbine 60 MW G~ Coolin g Tower
Ai r

Air and vapour

Air

295C

Condenser
Exhaust 600C

Parabolic Trough Field

G ~ Gas turbine 90 MW

Electricity to the grid

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Solar Combined Cycle Island versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference Photovoltaics Island

Solar Thermal Power Plants Fresnel


Principle / Characteristics
Line-focussing with long mirror strips onto fixed absorber Lower optical efficiency compared to parabolic trough More simple design offers potentially lower investment cost Direct steam generation in absorber (25 100 bar / 270 550C) Conventional water-steam-cycle (now saturated, future superheated) Efficient use of land due to compact design

Status
Relatively new technology Several pilot plants in operation in Australia, Spain and USA First pre-commercial demonstration plant for electricity generation (5 MWe) started operation end of 2008 in California First large scale plant shall start operation in 2012 in California using Ausras Compact Linear Fresnel Reflector technology. New 30MW project announced in Spain, recent large investment by Swiss utility
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Solar Thermal Power Plants Solar Tower


Principle / Characteristics
Tracked field of mirrors (heliostats), point focussing (factor > 500) Concentration on small area on top of the tower (receiver) High concentration factors = high temperatures (up to 700C) High solar-electric efficiency due to higher temperatures Different heat transfer fluids (molten salt, air, water/steam) generation of steam by heat exchanger conventional water-steam-cycle

Status
Potential successfully demonstrated in several large pilot plants Solar Tower technologies at different development stages First two commercial plants in operation in Spain (PS 10 & 20) Several large plants (>100 MWe) under development in US Despite first commercial plants still more R&D needed

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PV related services
111

technical due diligences - on behalf of lenders as well as investors techno-economic feasibility and conceptual studies yield projections specifications for large-scale PV installations check of construction and operating contracts - EPC and O&M under their technical and commercial aspects supervision of construction and progress monitoring participation in acceptance tests verification of electricity yields during operation other PV related technical advisory
Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Methodology

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Methodology Financial Calculation

Levelized electricity costs (LEC) in /kWh

It Mt in Et i n
113

Investment expenditures in the year t in Operations and maintenance expenditures in the year t Electricity generation in the year t in kWh Discount rate Life time of the system in years
Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

Site Assessment
Nassau, Bahamas

0.38

0.33
LEC [/kWh] 0.28 0.23

fixed

1axis

0.18
0.13

2.0

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

Price of Module [/Wp]

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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power Turkey 2010 Conference

0.6

Sensitivity of Wind Speed


2.5% 2.0%

Thin film Monocrystalline

Change of LEC [%]

1.5%

1.0%
0.5% 0.0% -0.5%

Polycrystalline
Parabolic trough

-1.0%
-1.5% 2.6 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.2

Wind speed [m/s]

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Extract of Reference Projects Solar Thermal


Spain, AndaSol-1, -2, 3:
Three Solar Rankine Cycle Plants with storage, each 50 Spain, MWe

Spain, PS-10
10 MW Central Receiver Plant

BMU / KfW, ZIP Program


Ten research projects for Market Introduction of Solar Technology

Greece, Theseus AE
Project Company 50 MW Solar Rankine Cycle Plant

RentaSolar

S.A.
Project Company for PV Power Plants in Spain

Abu Dhabi:
Design and Engineering 100 MWe CST Plant

Arizona, USA
Project Development for 250 MWe Solar Rankine Cycle Plant

India, Mathania
140 MWe ISCC (solar 30 MWe)

World Bank
Global Market Initiative (GMI) EM-Power

Morocco, Ain Beni Mathar


400 MWe ISCC (solar 20 MWe)

Botswana
Site Selection and Feasibility Study for 200 Mwe CST Plant

Egypt, Kuraymat:
150 MWe ISCC (solar 20 MWe)

Jordan
Project Development for 50 MWe Solar Rankine Cycle Plant

Australia
Site Selection and Feasibility Study 200 MW CST Plant

Egypt, El Nasr
Solar Process Heat Plant

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Solar Irradiation

Direct
on

no rm al p

lan

Diffuse
e

Direct

Direct Global = Diffuse + Direct on horizontal plane

Different technologies use different type of irradiation.


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Solar Thermal Power Plants Parabolic Trough


Principle / Characteristics
Tracked parabolic trough focuses on a receiver (up to factor 100) Heat transfer fluid (currently synthetic oil) heats up to 393C in receiver Generation of superheated steam via solar heat exchanger Conventional water-steam-cycle Possibility to store thermal energy (currently molten salt storage) Solar-to-electric efficiency of 12-16%

Status
Most mature and bankable CSP technology First nine plants (SEGS plants) successfully in operation since more than 20 years in California Several Gigawatts of parabolic trough power plants in planning or already under construction Major cost reduction due to mass production, economy of scale and further technological advancements Next steps: Direct steam generation + implementation of new storage technologies (e.g. concrete)
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Site Assessment
Site Nassau Montalto Johannesbur g Technology Thin film Monocrystalline Polycrystalline Parabolic trough DNI [kWh/m] 1,890 1,584 Temperature [C] 25.7 16.0 Wind [m/s] 4.1 3.0

2,302
Nassau [kWh/kWp] 1,886 1,728 1,683 2,125

15.7
Montalto [kWh/kWp] 1,609 1,485 1,466 1,570

3.5
Johannesburg [kWh/kWp] 2,020 1,904 1,879 2,155

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PT PLN (PERSERO)

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