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UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, DC 20549
FORM 8-K
Current Report
Pursuant to Section 13 OR 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Not Applicable
(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of
the following provisions:
o Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
o Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section 7 — Regulation FD
2
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Table of Contents
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by
the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
Exhibit 99.1
S a f e Ha r b o r Di s c l o s u r e Th i s s l i d e p r e s e n t a t i o n i s f o r i n f o r m a t i o n p u r pos es onl y. I t s houl d be r e a d i n c o n j u n c t i o n wi t h o u r f i n a n c i a l s u p p l em ent pos t e d o n o u r we b s i t e o n t h e I n v e s t o r Re l a t i o n s p a g e a n d wi t h o t h e r d o c u m e n t s f i l e d o r t o b e f i l e d s h o r t l y b y As p e n I n s u r a n c e Ho l d i n g s L i m i t e d ( t h e " Co m p a n y " o r " As p e n " ) wi t h t h e U. S . S e c u r i t i e s a n d E x c h a n g e Co m m i s s i o n . No n - GAAP F i n a n c i a l M e a s u r e s I n p r e s e n t i n g As p e n 's r e s ul t s, m a nagem ent has i ncl ude d a n d d i s c u s s e d c e r t a i n " n o n - GAAP f i n a n c i a l m e a s u r e s " , a s s u c h t e r m i s d e f i n e d i n Re g u l a t i o n G. M a n a g e m e n t b e l i e ves t h a t t h e s e n o n - GAAP m e a s u r e s , wh i c h m a y b e d e f i n e d d i f f e r e n t l y b y o t h e r c o m p a n i e s , b e t t e r e x p l a i n
As p e n 's r e s u l t s o f o p e r a t i o n s i n a m a n n e r t h a t a l l o ws f o r a m o r e c o m pl e t e under s t andi ng of t he u n d e r l y i n g t r e n d s i n As p e n 's b u s i n e s s . Ho we ver , t hes e m e a s u r e s s h o u l d n o t b e v i e we d a s a s u b s t i t u t e f o r t hos e d e t e r m i n e d i n a c c o r d a n c e wi t h GAAP . T h e r e c o n c i l i a t i o n o f s u c h n o n - GAAP f i n a n c i a l m e a s u r e s t o t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e m o s t d i r e c t l y c o m p a r a b l e GAAP f i n a n c i a l m e a s u r e s i n a c c o r d a n c e wi t h Re g u l a t i o n G i s i n c l u d e d h e r e i n or i n t he f i nanci al s uppl em ent , a s a p p l i c a b l e , wh i c h c a n b e o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e I n v e s t o r Re l a t i o n s s e c t i o n o f As p e n 's we b s i t e a t www. a s p e n . b m . Ap p l i cat i o n o f t h e S a f e Ha r b o r o f t h e P r i v a t e S e c u r i t i e s L i t i g a t i o n Re f o r m Ac t o f 1 9 9 5 : T h i s p r e s e n t a t i o n
c o n t a i n s , a n d As p e n 's e a r n i n g s c o n f e r e n c e c a l l m a y c o n t a i n , wr i t t e n o r or a l " f o r wa r d - l o o k i n g s t a t e m e n t s " wi t h i n t h e m e a n i n g o f t h e U. S . f eder al s ec u r i t i e s l a ws . T h e s e s t a t e m e n t s a r e m a d e p u r s u a n t t o t he s a f e h a r b o r p r o v i s i o n s o f t h e P r i v a t e S e c u r i t i e s L i t i g a t i o n Re f o r m Ac t o f 1 9 9 5 . F o r wa r d - l o o k i n g s t a t e m e n t s i n c l u d e a l l s t a t e m e n t s t h a t do not r el at e s ol el y t o hi s t or i cal or cur r ent f act s , and can be i dent i f i ed by t he us e of wo r d s s u c h a s " e x p e c t , " " i n t e n d , " " p l a n , " " b e l i e v e , " " p r o j e c t , " " a n t i c i p a t e , " " s e e k , " " a i m , " " wi l l , " " e s t i m a t e , " " m a y , " " c o n t i n u e , " a nd s i m i l a r e x p r e s s i o n s o f a f u t u r e o r f o r wa r d - l o o k i n g n a t u r e . Al l f o r wa r d - l o o k i n g s t a t e m e n t s a d d r e s s
m at t er s t hat i nvol ve r i s k s a n d u n c e r t a i n t i e s . Ac c o r d i n g l y , t h e r e a r e or wi l l b e i m p o r t a n t f a c t or s t hat coul d caus e act ual r es ul t s t o di f f er m at er i a l l y f r o m t h o s e i n d i c a t e d i n t h e s e s t a t e m e n t s . As pen be l i eves t hes e f act or s i ncl ude, but ar e not l i m i t ed t o: t he cont i nui ng and uncer t ai n i m pact of t he cur r ent depr es s ed cr edi t envi r onm ent , t h e b a n k i n g c r i s e s a n d e c o n o m i c r e c e s s i o n s i n m a n y o f t h e c o u n t r i e s i n wh i c h we oper at e and of t he m eas ur es bei ng t aken by gover nm ent s t o count er t hes e i s s ues ; t he r i s k of a m at er i al decl i ne i n t he val ue or l i qui di t y of a l l or par t s of our i nves t m ent por t f ol i o; changes i n i ns ur ance and r ei ns ur ance m ar ket condi t i ons ; changes
i n our abi l i t y t o exer c i s e capi t al m anagem ent i ni t i at i ves or t o ar r a nge banki ng f aci l i t i es as a r es ul t of pr evai l i ng m ar ket changes or c hanges i n our f i nanci al pos i t i on; our abi l i t y t o execut e our bus i ne s s pl an t o ent er new m ar ket s , i nt r oduce new pr oduct s and devel op new di s t r i but i on channel s , i ncl udi ng t hei r i nt egr at i on i nt o our exi s t i ng oper at i ons ; changes i n t he t ot al i ndus t r y l os s es , or our s har e of t ot al i ndus t r y l os s es , r es ul t i ng f r om pas t e v e n t s s u c h a s Hu r r i c a n e s I k e a n d Gu s t a v a n d , wi t h r e s p e c t t o s u c h e v e n t s , o u r r e l i a n c e o n l o s s r e p o r t s r e c e i v e d f r om c edant s and l os s adj us t or s , our r el i ance on i ndus t r y l os s es t i m at es and t hos e gener at ed by m odel i ng
t echni ques , changes i n r ul i ngs on f l ood dam age or ot her excl us i ons as a r es ul t of pr evai l i ng l a ws u i t s a n d c a s e l a w, a n y c h a n g e s i n o u r r e i ns ur er s ' cr edi t qual i t y and t he am ount and t i m i ng of r ei ns ur ance r e c o v e r a b l e s ; t h e i m p a c t o f a c t s o f t e r r o r i s m a n d r e l a t e d l e g i s l a t i o n a n d a c t s o f wa r ; t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f g r e a t e r f r e q u e n c y o r s e v e r i t y o f cl ai m s and l os s act i vi t y, i ncl udi ng as a r es ul t of nat ur al or m an- m ade cat ast r ophi c event s , t han our unde r wr i t i n g , r e s e r v i n g , r e i n s u r a n c e p u r c h a s i n g o r i n v e s t m e n t p r a c t i c e s h a v e a n t i c i p a t e d ; e v o l v i n g i n t e r p r e t i v e i s s u e s wi t h r es pect t o cover age af t er m aj or l os s event s ; t he l evel of i nf l at i on i n r epai r cos t s due t o l i m i t ed
avai l abi l i t y of l abor a nd m at er i al s af t er cat as t r ophes ; t he ef f ect i ve nes s of our l os s l i m i t at i on m et hods ; changes i n t he avai l abi l i t y, c os t or qua l i t y of r ei ns ur ance or r et r oces s i onal cover age; t he r el i a bi l i t y of , and changes i n as s um pt i ons t o, cat as t r ophe pr i ci ng, accum ul at i on and es t i m at ed l os s m odel s ; l os s of key per s onnel ; a decl i ne i n o u r o p e r a t i n g s u b s i d i a r i e s ' r a t i n g s wi t h S t a n d a r d & P o o r 's ( " S & P " ) , A. M . Be s t or M o o d y 's I n v e s t o r s S e r v i c e ( " M o o d y 's " ) ; c h a n g e s i n g e n e r a l e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g i n f l a t i o n , f o r e i g n c u r r e n c y e x c h a n g e r a t e s , i n t e r est r at es and ot her f act or s t hat coul d af f ect our i nves t m ent por t f ol i o; i ncr eas ed com pet i t i on on t he
bas i s of pr i ci ng, capac i t y, cover age t er m s or ot her f act or s and t he r el a t ed dem and and s uppl y d y n a m i c s a s c o n t r a c t s c o m e u p f o r r e n e wa l ; decr eas e d dem and f or our i ns ur ance or r ei ns ur ance pr oduct s and c y c l i c a l c h a n g e s i n t h e i n s u r a n c e a n d r e i n s u r a n c e s e c t o r s ; c h a n g e s i n g o v e r n m e n t r e g u l a t i o n s o r t a x l a ws i n j u r i s d i c t i o n s wh e r e we c o n d u c t b u s i n e s s ; a n d As p e n Ho l d i n g s o r As p e n Be r m u d a b e c o m i n g s u b j e c t t o i n c o m e t a xes i n t he Un i t e d S t a t e s o r t h e Un i t e d Ki n g d o m . I n a d d i t i o n , a n y e s t i m a t e s r e l a t i n g t o l o s s e v e n t s i n v o l v e t h e e x e r c i s e o f c o n s i d e r a b l e j u d g m e n t and r ef l ect a com bi nat i on of gr ound- up eval uat i ons , i nf or m at i on avai l abl e t o dat e f r om br oker s and
cedant s , m ar ket i nt el l i gence, i ni t i al t ent at i ve l os s r epor t s and ot he r s o u r c e s . Du e t o t h e c o m pl exi t y of f act or s cont r i but i ng t o t he l os s es and t he pr el i m i nar y nat ur e of t he i nf or m at i on us ed t o pr epar e t h e s e e s t i m a t e s , t h e r e c a n b e n o a s s u r a n c e t h a t As p e n 's u l t i m a t e l o s s e s wi l l r e m a i n wi t h i n t h e s t a t e d a m o u n t . F o r a m o r e d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e s e u n c e r t a i n t i e s a n d o t h e r f a c t o r s , p l e a s e s e e t h e " Ri s k F a c t o r s " se ct i on i n As p e n 's An n u a l Re p o r t s o n F o r m 1 0 - K a s f i l e d , a n d t o b e f i l e d , wi t h t h e U. S . S e c u r i t i e s a n d E x c h a n g e Co m m i s s i o n o n F e b r u a r y 2 9 , 2 0 0 8 and i n e a r l y 2 0 0 9 . As p e n u n d e r t a k e s n o o b l i g a t i o n t o p u b l i c l y u p d a t e o r r e v i s e a n y f o r wa r d - l o o k i n g
s t a t e m e n t s , wh e t h e r a s a r es ul t of new i nf or m at i on, f ut ur e event s or ot h e r wi s e . Re a d e r s a r e c a ut i oned not t o pl ace undue r el i ance on t hes e f o r wa r d - l o o k i n g s t a t e m e n t s , wh i c h s p e a k o n l y a s o f t h e d a t es on wh i c h t h e y a r e m a d e .
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Co n t e n t s I nt r oduct i on and St r a t e gy 2008 Re s u l t s Hi g h l i g h t s 2008 Hu r r i c a n e s M ar ket Co n d i t i o n s / J anuar y 1 Re n e wa l s Li q u i d i t y and Ca p i t a l Pos i t i on I nves t m ent St r a t e gy and Pe r f or m a nc e Ap p e n d i x
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As p e n at a Gl a n c e : Ov e r v i e w Be r m u d a dom i ci l ed di ver s i f i ed Spe c i a l t y I ns ur er and Re i n s u r e r wi t h f ocus on: ? M ar i ne, En e r g y and Tr a n s p o r t I ns ur ance ? Spe c i a l t y Ca s u a l t y Re i n s u r a n c e ? Pr ope r t y Ca t a s t r o p h e I ns ur ance and Re i n s u r a n c e $2. 0bn m ar ket cap ? $3. 0bn of t ot al capi t al , as of De c e m b e r 31, 2008 ? Ra t i n g s of A ( S& P) , A2 ( M o o d y 's ) and A ( AM Be s t ) f or As p e n UK a n d As p e n Be r m u d a ? AHL i n c l u d e d i n Ru s s e l l 2000 and 3000 I ndexes , Ba r r o n 's 400 I ndex ? BVP S 1 4 . 5 % CAGR o v e r l ast 12 quar t er s $2. 0bn Gr o s s W r i t t en Pr e m i um i n 2008; est i m at e $2. 0bn +/ - 5% GW P f o r 2009* ? 44% I ns ur ance, 56% Re i n s u r a n c e ? 41% Ca s u a l t y , 59% Pr ope r t y * Es t i m a t e as at Fe br ua r y 5, 2009
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Re c a p : 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 0 8 S l i c e 2 0 6 20 0 74 25 I n s u r a n c e Re i n s u r a n c e 4 0 5 4 4 % 5 6 % 6 7 3 0 P r o p e r t y Ca s u a l t y UK Be r m u d a 4 % 2 0 0 8 I n s u r a n c e v s . Re i n s u r a n c e Pr ope r t y v s . Ca s u a l t y GW P b y " Co r e " P l a t f o r m 1 6 2 0 0 3 6 7 US 2 % 9 4 % 3 9 % 6 1 % 2 3 % 7 7 % 4 1 % 5 9 % GW P $ 2 . 0 b n T o t a l Ca p i t a l $3. 0bn Co m m o n Eq u i t y $2. 4bn Op ROE 5 . 4 % Di l u t e d BVP S $ 2 8 . 1 0 500+ em pl oyees 16 of f i ces 7 count r i es GW P $ 1 . 3 b n To t a l Ca p i t a l $1. 3bn Co m m o n Eq u i t y $1. 3bn Op ROE 1 6 . 0 % BVP S $ 1 8 . 1 7 176 em pl oyees 4 of f i ces 3 count r i es 74% 6% 20% I m pr oved Pr oduc t and Ge o g r a p h i c a l Di v e r s i f i c a t i o n ; I ns ur ance ~44% i n 2009 vs . 23% i n 2003 No t e : Se e As p e n 's quar t er l y f i nanci al s uppl em ent f or a r econci l i at i on of
oper at i ng i ncom e t o net i ncom e; aver age equi t y t o cl os i ng s har ehol der s ' equi t y and di l ut ed book val ue per s har e t o bas i c book val ue per s har e i n t he I nves t or Re l a t i o n s s e c t i o n o f As p e n s' we b s i t e a t www. a s p e n . b m . I n s u r a n c e Re i n s u r a n c e P r o p e r t y Ca s u a l t y US Be r m u d a UK
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Re m i n d e r : St r a t e gy - Ke y El e m e n t s 1. Do i n g W hat W e 'r e Go o d At Foc us on s peci al t y and m or e com pl ex r i s ks wh i c h f i t wi t h our s ki l l - s et 1. Do i n g W hat W e 'r e Go o d At Se l e c t i ve expans i on i nt o new / adj acent l i nes and t er r i t or i es ? Be t t e r s pr ead of r i sk and l o we r vol at i l i t y Re g a r d e d as a 'S e c t o r Ex p e r t ' b y our cl i ent s 2. Ru n n i n g our Bu s i n e s s W el l M ul t i - pl at f or m appr oach ? Lo c a t i o n of our peopl e m i r r or s t he pr oduct i on s our ces f or t he bus i nes s we wr i t e En t e r p r i s e Ri s k M anagem ent as our cor e s t r at egi c enabl er 3. Re t u r n s Fi r s t , Gr o wt h Se c ond Gr o wt h i n book val ue per s har e ( adj us t ed f or di vi dends ) pr i m ar y m et r i c by wh i c h we m anage our bus i nes s
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Pr ogr e s s i ve di ve r s i f i c a t i on of s t r at egi c f oot pr i nt t hr ough i ncr em ent al expans i on i nt o adj acent bus i nes s l i nes and s el ect i ve es t abl i s hm ent o f n e w u n d e r wr i t i n g p l a t f o r m s / o f f i c e s Ke y e n a b l e r s : ? Co n s i s t e n t wi t h c o r e c o m p e t e n c i e s ? T i m i n g ? Av a i l a b i l i t y o f p r o v e n , s u c c e s s f u l u n d e r wr i t i n g t e a m s S e l e c t i v e Bu s i n e s s L i n e E x p a n s i o n Re s u l t i n g i n I m p r o v e d Di v e r s i f i c a t i o n 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 9 Spe c i a l t y RI ? Av i a t i o n ? M ar i ne US Ca s u a l t y Re US E & S l i n e s As p e n Re Am e r i c a Av i a t i o n I ns ur ance M ar i ne I ns ur ance En e r g y I ns ur ance I nt er nat i onal Pr ope r t y Fa c ul t a t i ve * Un d e r wr i t i n g com m enced pos t 09/ 07 * * Un d e r wr i t i n g com m enced Q3 '0 8 f or bus i nes s i ncept i ng i n 2009 ***
Un d e r wr i t i n g c o m m e n c e s 0 3 / 0 9 2 0 0 6 P r o f e s s i o n a l L i a b i l i t y * E x c e s s Ca s u a l t y * T r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e l a t e d L i a b i l i t y 2 0 0 7 P o l i t i c a l Ri s k F i n a n c i a l I n s t i t u t i o n s Cr e d i t & S u r e t y Re i n s u r a n c e * * M a n a g e m e n t Te c h n o l o g y a n d L i a b i l i t y P r o d u c t s P l a t f o r m s Be r m u d a L o n d o n US Z u r i c h Du b l i n L l o y d 's S i n g a p o r e Do i n g W h a t W e r' e Go o d At : E x p a n s i o n i n t o Ne w / Ad j a c e n t L i n e s a n d T e r r i t o r i e s P a r i s 2 0 0 8 S p e c i e * * *
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Ru n n i n g o u r Bu s i n e s s W e l l : E n t e r p r i s e Ri s k M a n a g e m e n t : M a n a g i n g o u r Bu s i n e s s Be t t e r Un d e r s t a n d i n g l i nkage b e t we e n as s um ed r i sk and capi t al at r i sk i s key Ri s k m anagem ent em bedded wi t h i n our cul t ur e and f undam ent al t o ever yt hi ng we do ? W el l def i ned r i sk appet i t e cl ear l y ar t i cul at ed ? Le a d e r s h i p 'f r o m t he t op' ? Ca s c a d e d d o wn t hr oughout t he or gani s at i on ? Bo a r d 'R i s k ' Co m m i t t e e es t abl i s hed i n 2006 I T and pr oces s es des i gned t o s uppor t u n d e r wr i t i n g and r i sk m anagem ent obj ect i ves I ndi vi dual and t eam obj ect i ves and com pens at i on s t r uct ur e al i gned t o com pany goal s As p e n E RM r at ed " s t r ong" by S & P Ri s k M anagem ent Un d e r wr i t i n g Un d e r wr i t i n g Ac t u a r i a l Cl a i m s
L e g a l F i n a n c e / Op e r a t i o n s Ri s k M a n a g e m e n t a n d I n f r a s t r u c t u r e Al i g n e d t o S u p p o r t o u r Go a l s
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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 An n u a l i s e d ROE 0 . 1 2 5 0. 204 0. 18 0. 224 0. 229 0. 204 0. 202 0. 228 0. 128 0. 204 - 0. 232 0. 028 Di l u t e d BV P e r Sha r e * 18. 95 19. 76 21. 41 21. 83 22. 93 23. 63 25. 68 27. 08 28. 48 28. 99 26. 21 28. 1 Co m p o u n d e d An n u a l Gr o wt h Ra t e i n BVP S o v e r l ast 12 Qu a r t e r s of 14. 5% ( *) No t e : Se e As p e n 's quar t er l y f i nanci al s uppl em ent f or a r econci l i at i on of di l ut ed book val ue per s har e t o bas i c book val ue per s har e and r econci l i at i on of aver age equi t y t o cl os i ng s har ehol der s ' equi t y i n t he I nves t or Re l a t i o n s s ect i on of As p e n 's we b s i t e at www. a s p e n . b m 2006 2007 2008 ? Bu s i n e s s Pe r f or m a nc e : Gr o wt h i n ROE a n d Bo o k Va l u e Pe r Sha r e
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Pr o- a c t i ve Ri s k M anagem ent : 2008 Hu r r i c a n e Lo s s e s 2008 Hu r r i c a n e Lo s s e s 2008 Hu r r i c a n e Lo s s e s Pr ope r t y Re i n s u r a n c e Lo s s Ev e n t M ar ket Sha r e M ar ket Sha r e Si gni f i c a nt Re d u c t i o n i n Sha r e of Na t u r a l Ca t a s t r o p h e Lo s s e s Re f l e c t i n g Re p o s i t i o n i n g of Ca t Bo o k Pos t 2005 Hu r r i c a n e s
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M a r k e t Ou t l o o k 2 0 0 9 : Co m p a r i s o n wi t h P r e v i o u s H ' a r d ' M a r k e t s Ye a r 1 9 8 6 1 9 9 3 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 5 Un d e r l y i n g Ca u s e s Un d e r - r e s e r v i n g I n a d e q u a t e p r i c i n g f o r m a n y y e a r s Ra t e d e c l i n e s f r o m p e a k s p o s t 1 9 8 6 E c o n o m i c d i s l o c a t i o n I m p a c t o f E n r o n / W o r l d Co m b a n k r u p t c i e s F a l l i n g e q u i t y m a r k e t s a n d i n t e r e s t r a t e s I n a d e q u a t e p r i c i n g f o r m a n y y e a r s Ra t e decl i nes f r om peaks pos t 2002 Ca t a l y s t As b e s t o s / p o l l u t i o n Hu r r i c a n e An d r e w W T C / Se pt e m be r 11 Hu r r i c a n e s Ka t r i n a / Ri t a / W i l m a I m pact Si gni f i c a nt r educt i on i n wo r l d - wi d e capaci t y For m a t i on of ACE / XL M a j o r r e- pr i ci ng acr os s al l l i nes of bus i nes s and i n al l t er r i t or i es M oder at el y 'h a r d ' m a r k e t I m pact concent r at ed i n l os s i m pact ed
l i ne s ( e . g. Pr ope r t y r e i ns ur a nc e , o f f - s h o r e e n e r g y , m a r i n e h u l l , D& O) M a j o r r e - p r i c i n g a c r o s s a l l l i n e s o f b u s i n e s s a n d a l l t e r r i t o r i e s 'L o c a l i s e d ' ( p r o d u c t a n d g e o g r a p h y ) h a r d m a r k e t i n l o s s i m p a c t e d l i n e s ( e . g . US P r o p e r t y Ca t a n d o f f - s h o r e E n e r g y ) + = Be l i e v e M a r k e t Ha r d e n i n g i n 2 0 0 9 L i k e l y T o Be Cl o s e r t o 1 9 9 3 / 2 0 0 5 t h a n 1 9 8 6 / 2 0 0 2
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M ar ket Ou t l o o k 2 0 0 9 : ( Re - ) I n s u r a n c e S p e c i f i c F a c t o r s Ke y Dr i v e r s I m p a c t I n v e s t m e n t l o s s e s r e s u l t i n g f r o m t u r m o i l i n f i n a n c i a l m a r k e t s US h u r r i c a n e a n d o t h e r c a t a s t r o p h e l o s s e s S i g n i f i c a n t r i s k ( m a n - m a d e ) l o s s e s g l o b a l l y Ex p e c t e d heavy l os s es ar i s i ng f r om l i kel y E& O / D& O c l a i m s r el at i ng t o f i nanci al i ns t i t ut i ons Re s t r i c t e d access t o new capi t al Lo w i n t e r e s t r at es Re d u c e d appet i t e i n capi t al m ar ket s t o pr ovi de r ei ns ur ance s ol ut i ons and r educt i on i n col l at er al i s ed r et r o capaci t y Fa l l out f r om cer t ai n m aj or i ndus t r y pl ayer s Si gni f i c a nt 'h a r d e n i n g ' i n sel ect ed l i nes ? Of f - s h o r e En e r g y ? Fi na nc i a l and Pol i t i c a l Ri s k ? Fi na nc i a l I ns t i t ut i ons ( E & O, D& O) ?
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M a r k e t Ou t l o o k 2 0 0 9 : P o s i t i v e a n d Ne g a t i v e I n f l u e n c e s De c l i n e i n wo r l d - wi d e GDP I n c r e a s e i n i ns ol venci es and bankr upt ci es ( f i r s t b a n k i n g n o w c o r p o r a t e ) Re v e n u e s f l a t o r d e c l i n i n g : - Gr e a t e r o p t i o n a l i t y i n r e i n s u r a n c e s pend - F e we r cus t om er s as a r es ul t of cor por at e f ai l ur es - Le s s dem and due t o r educed econom i c g r o wt h M ar gi n com pr es s i on due t o: - I ncr eas ed f r equency and s ever i t y of ar s on, f r aud, bur gl ar y, aut o t hef t , bus i nes s i nt er r upt i on cl ai m s - Bu y e r s f aci ng l o we r oper at i ng m ar gi ns r es ul t i ng i n pr i ci ng pr es s ur e - M or e and l ar ger cl ai m s as a r es ul t of r educed m ai nt enance budget s I nves t m ent l os s es and i nt er es t r at e out l ook Hu r r i c a n e l os s es W i de- s pr ead
i n a d e q u a t e p r i c i n g Ca p i t a l c o n s t r a i n t s Cr e d i t c r i s i s c o n s e q u e n c e s ( E & O, D& O, F I , P o l i t i c a l Ri s k ) Di f f i c u l t i e s o f c e r t a i n m a j o r i n d u s t r y p l a y e r s Re s u m p t i o n o f t h e s u b s c r i p t i o n m a r k e t P o s i t i v e s Ne g a t i v e s
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M ar ket Co n d i t i o n s / J anuar y 1 Re n e wa l s : Sna ps hot Pr e m i um f or Re n e wa l La p s e d / De c l i n e d Re n e we d Ne w Bu s i n e s s 2009 To t a l 411. 31 347. 1 347. 093 0 64. 226 347. 093 70. 857 417. 95 $64 m $347 m $71m $418 m J anuar y Ne w Bu s i n e s s & Re n e wa l s $411m Pr e m i um pr oduct i on m ar gi nal l y ahead of expect at i ons due t o i m pr ovi ng m ar ket condi t i ons i n cer t ai n key l i nes Ra t e s i ncr eas ed on aver age by 8% i n J anuar y on bus i nes s r e n e we d St r ong i ncr eas es r ecor ded i n Pr ope r t y r ei ns ur ance, Av i a t i o n i ns ur ance & M ar i ne l i abi l i t y i ns ur ance
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W hy As p e n i s W el l P l a c e d t o Be n e f i t f r o m E x p e c t e d I m p r o v e d M a r k e t Co n d i t i o n s i n 2 0 0 9 L i n e I m p a c t Ye a r U/ W Co m m e n c e d 2 0 0 8 GW P * P r e l i m i n a r y P l a n n i n g As s u m p t i o n * Up s i d e Ca s e GW P Gr o wt h Up s i d e Ca s e v s . 2 0 0 8 E n e r g y P D M e d i u m / Hi g h 2 0 0 4 $ 9 5 m $103m $116m 2 2 % F i n a n c i a l & P o l i t i c a l Ri s k Hi g h Q1 2 0 0 8 $ 3 9 m $ 5 0 m $ 6 0 m 5 4 % M a r i n e & E n e r g y L i a b i l i t y Hi g h 2 0 0 4 $ 1 6 1 m $130m $180m 12% Ex c e s s Ca s u a l t y I ns ur ance M edi um Q1 2008 $30m $83m $110m 267% Pr ope r t y Ca t Re M edi um 2002 $253m $243m ** $269m 6% E& S P r o p e r t y I ns ur ance M edi um / Lo w 2 0 0 3 $53m $65m $105m 98% Av i a t i o n M edi um / L o w Q2 2005 $102m $104m $125m 23% Fr om Th e s e Li n e s , Up s i d e
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Li q u i d i t y and Ca p i t a l Pos i t i on: Di v e r s i f i e d , Co n s e r v a t i v e I nves t m ent Por t f ol i o* 87% of Por t f ol i o 'AA' o r Be t t e r , Av e r a g e Fi xe d I ncom e 'AAA' As s e t Cl a s s Al l o c a t i o n Fi xe d I ncom e Por t f ol i o Cr e d i t Ra t i n g s ( As at De c e m b e r 31, 2008) Go v e r n m e n t Ag e n c y M BS Co r p ABS F OHF Ca s h / S T 1 2 / 1 / 2 0 0 7 0. 19 0. 06 0. 21 0. 25 0. 04 0. 09 0. 16 12/ 31/ 2008 0. 18 0. 068 0. 23 0. 23 0. 04 0. 05 0. 2 A AA AAA BBB E a s t 0. 11 0. 11 0. 76 0. 02 * Fur t he r det ai l r egar di ng t he com pos i t i on of our i nves t m ent por t f ol i o i s set out i n t he Ap p e n d i x ( see s l i des x- y)
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Pr o- a c t i ve M a na ge m e nt of I nve s t m e nt P o r t f o l i o De c i s i o n n o t t o i n c r e a s e e x p o s u r e t o ABS o r CM BS e n d 2006 ? Re d u c t i o n o f 1 % i n e a c h i n 2 0 0 8 De c i s i o n t o p u r c h a s e o n l y a g e n c y r a t e d p a p e r i n RM BS s e c t o r ; por t f ol i o 95% agency r at ed F i x e d i n c o m e p o r t f o l i o we l l p o s i t i o n e d i n 2 0 0 7 / 2 0 0 8 Co n t i n u e d s t r a t e g y o f i n v e s t i n g i n h i g h q u a l i t y s e c u r i t i e s a t a t t r a c t i v e y i e l d s ? Di d n o t i n c r e a s e e x p o s u r e t o f i xed i ncom e s ect or s l i kel y t o com e under s ever e pr i ce pr es s ur e due t o t he ongoi ng cr edi t cr i si s and gl obal r eces s i on ? No s ub- pr i m e, m ono l i ne, CDO, CL O o r bel ow i nves t m ent gr ade cr edi t expos ur es ? No n - a g e n c y RM BS e x p o s u r e account ed f or onl y 1% of t he por t f ol i o ? No
i nves t m ent s i n s t r es s ed or di s t r es s ed c r e d i t o p p o r t u n i t i e s I n c r e a s e d e x p o s u r e t o a g e n c y r a t e d M BS b y 3% ; decr eas ed expos ur e t o cor por at es by 2% , decr eas ed expos ur e t o gover nm ent s by 1% and i ncr eas ed expos ur e t o agenci es by 1% Re d e e m e d 4 0 % o f F OHF i n v e s t m e n t s e n d 2 0 0 8 ; b a l a n c e t o b e r e d e e m e d b y e n d J u n e 2 0 0 9 2 0 0 6 / 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 P r o - Ac t i v e M a n a g e m e n t Re s u l t i n g i n S t r o n g P e r f o r m a n c e f r om Fi xe d I nc om e I nve s t m e nt s
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St r ong Ba l a n c e She e t Ca p i t a l St r uc t ur e and Fi na nc i a l Le v e r a g e $617m r et ur ned t o s har ehol der s t hr ough di vi dends and s har e buy- backs , s i nce i ncept i on St r ong g r o wt h i n r et ai ned ear ni ngs St r ong bal ance s heet wi t h pot ent i al f or f ur t her l ever age $300m 2 year buy- back pr ogr am announced Fe br ua r y 2008; $100m com pl et ed M ay 2008 3. 0% 14. 4% 19. 6% 25. 7% 22. 1% 22. 4% Le v e r a g e W el l Ca p i t a l i s e d t o Ta k e Ad v a n t a g e of Ex p e c t e d Op p o r t u n i t i e s 878 1, 339 1, 730 2, 289 2, 639 3, 068 3, 029
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US A Be r m u d a I n t r a - g r o u p r e i n s u r a n c e L i c e n s e s Re g u l a t o r y Ca p i t a l Ba l a n c e S h e e t Di v e r s i f i c a t i o n a n d F l e x i b i l i t y Ca p i t a l , Ge o g r a p h i c a l Re a c h a n d P l a t f o r m s T o M a t c h M a r k e t Op p o r t u n i t i e s a n d Cl i e n t Ne e d s * Op e r a t i o n a l f r om Q2 2008 St a t ut or y Ca p i t a l & Sur pl us - 08 $1, 339m Pr e s e nc e i n l eadi ng r ei ns ur ance m ar ket Pr ovi de r of i nt r a- gr oup r ei ns ur ance Ta x ef f i ci enci es Ra t i n g s : AM Be s t S & P M o o d y 's UK $ 1 , 2 3 5 m A ( Ex c e l l e n t ) A ( St r ong) A2 ( Go o d ) A ( Ex c e l l e n t ) A ( St r ong) A2 ( Go o d ) L l o y d 's * $200m Pr e - e m i ne nt i ns ur ance m ar ket Ex t e n s i v e n e t wo r k of l i cences St r ong r at i ng / br and/ r eput at i on De v e l o p i n g i n new m ar ket s A ( Ex c e l l e n t ) A+ ( S t r o n g ) I nt r a- gr oup r ei ns ur ance Pr e m i um
$ 1 1 8 m P r e s e n c e i n E& S i n s u r a n c e P r e s e n c e i n r e i n s u r a n c e v i a As p e n Re Am e r i c a P r e s e n c e i n l e a d i n g i n s u r a n c e / r e i n s u r a n c e m a r k e t Br a n c h e s Z u r i c h Ca n a d a Du b l i n P a r i s S i n g a p o r e A- ( E x c e l l e n t )
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Co n c l u s i o n s Ro b u s t per f or m ance i n 2008 des pi t e ver y chal l engi ng m ar ket condi t i ons ? I ncr eas ed di l ut ed BVP S b y 3. 8% ? Ge n e r a t e d t ot al r et ur n on i nves t m ent s of 2% ; 4% excl udi ng F OHF S t r o n g bal ance s heet and pos i t i ve cash f l ow ? Pos i t i ve oper at i ng cash f l ow of % 531m i n 2008 ? De b t t o t ot al capi t al r at i o of 8. 2% Co n s e r v a t i v e i nves t m ent por t f ol i o ? Av e r a g e cr edi t qual i t y of AAA ? Ne t unr eal i s ed gai ns at year end of $67m ? To t a l i nves t ed asset s, i ncl udi ng accr ued i nt er es t , of $5. 2bn, pl us $0. 8bn of cash W el l pos i t i oned i n key l i nes of bus i nes s exper i enci ng f avour abl e pr i ci ng envi r onm ent ? Co n t i n u o u s 'p o r t f o l i o ' m a n a g e m e n t t o ens ur e m or e capi t al i s al l ocat ed t o
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Ap p e n d i x I nves t m ent Por t f ol i o ? Fi xe d I ncom e Por t f ol i o by As s e t Ty p e ? Por t f ol i o Ra t i n g s ? Gr o s s Un r e a l i s e d Ga i n s and Lo s s e s ? Co r p o r a t e Se c t or Al l o c a t i o n s Fi na nc i a l s ? Ke y Pe r f or m a nc e M et r i cs Q3 2008 ? Ke y Pe r f or m a nc e M et r i cs YT D 2 0 0 8 ? Re s u l t s by bus i nes s s egm ent Q3 2008 ? Re s u l t s by bus i nes s s egm ent YT D 2 0 0 8
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Co r p o r a t e Se c t or Al l o c a t i o n s Ap p e n d i x
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F i n a n c i a l Hi g h l i g h t s : Q4 2 0 0 8 Qu a r t e r E n d e d De c e m b e r 3 1 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 7 Ch a n g e Gr o s s W r i t t en P r e m i u m s 4 3 5 . 4 3 0 5 . 0 4 2 . 8 % ) Ne t W r i t t e n P r e m i u m s 4 0 6 . 1 2 7 9 . 0 45. 6% ) Ne t Ea r n e d Pr e m i um s 478. 6 423. 7 13. 0% ) Un d e r wr i t i n g I ncom e 31. 9 87. 1 ( 63. 4) % Ne t I nves t m ent I ncom e 10. 3 80. 3 ( 87. 2) % Ne t I ncom e af t er t ax 21. 8 135. 2 ( 83. 9) % Fi na nc i a l Ra t i o s : Lo s s Ra t i o 64. 9% 47. 6% Ex p e n s e Ra t i o 28. 5% 31. 8% Co m b i n e d Ra t i o 93. 4% 79. 4% An n u a l i z e d Op e r a t i n g ROE * 2. 4% 23. 2% Op e r a t i n g EP S * $0. 17 $1. 47 Bo o k Va l u e Pe r Sha r e $28. 10 $27. 08 3. 8% ( US $ i n m i l l i ons , except per s har e dat a) ( *) No t e : Se e As p e n 's quar t er l y f i nanci al s uppl em ent f or a r econci l i at i on of oper at i ng
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F i n a n c i a l Hi g h l i g h t s : Ye a r e n d e d De c e m b e r 3 1 , 2 0 0 8 Ye a r E n d e d De c e m b e r 31 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 7 Ch a n g e Gr o s s W r i t t e n P r e m i u m s 2 , 0 0 1 . 7 1 , 8 1 8 . 5 1 0 . 1 % ) Ne t W r i t t e n Pr e m i um s 1, 835. 5 1, 601. 4 14. 6% ) Ne t Ea r n e d Pr e m i um s 1, 701. 7 1, 733. 6 ( 1. 8) % Un d e r wr i t i n g I ncom e 74. 8 295. 1 ( 74. 7) % Ne t I nves t m ent I ncom e 139. 2 299. 0 ( 53. 4) % Ne t I ncom e af t er t ax 103. 8 489. 0 ( 78. 8) % Fi na nc i a l Ra t i o s : Lo s s Ra t i o 65. 8% 53. 1% Ex p e n s e Ra t i o 29. 8% 29. 9% Co m b i n e d Ra t i o 95. 6% 83. 0% An n u a l i z e d Op e r a t i n g ROE * 5. 4% 21. 1% Op e r a t i n g EP S * $1. 44 $4. 99 ( 71. 1) % ( US $ i n m i l l i ons , except per s har e dat a) ( *) No t e : Se e As p e n 's quar t er l y f i nanci al s uppl em ent f or a r econci l i at i on of oper at i ng
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Fi na nc i a l Hi g h l i g h t s : Gr o u p Sum m a r y Q4 2008 Un d e r wr i t i n g Re v e n u e s GW P P r e m i u m s Ce d e d NW P NE P 2 0 0 7 Q4 305 26 279 423. 7 2008 Q4 435. 4 29. 1 406. 3 478. 8 No r t h 45. 9 46. 9 45 43. 9 Un d e r wr i t i n g Ex p e n s e s Lo s s e s & Lo s s Ex p e n s e s Ac q u i s i t i o n Ex p Ge n e r a l Ad m i n Ex p e n s e s To t a l Un d e r wr i t i n g Ex p e n s e s 2007 Q4 201. 7 78. 4 56. 5 336. 6 2008 Q4 310. 7 87. 5 48. 8 448 No r t h 45. 9 46. 9 45 43. 9 I ncom e Un d e r wr i t i n g I ncom e Ne t I nves t m ent I ncom e 2007 Q4 87. 1 80. 3 2008 Q4 31. 8 10. 3 No r t h 45. 9 46. 9 Co n t r i b u t i o n Op e r a t i n g I ncom e Be f o r e Ta x I ncom e Be f o r e Ta x I ncom e Af t e r Ta x Re t a i n e d I ncom e 2007 Q4 161. 3 158. 3 135. 2 115 2008 Q4 37. 8 41. 3 21. 7 2. 5 No r t h 45. 9 46. 9 45 43. 9 Ap p e n d i x
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Fi na nc i a l Hi g h l i g h t s : Gr o u p Sum m a r y - Ful l Ye a r 2008 GW P P r e m i u m s Ce d e d NW P NE P 2 0 0 7 1818. 5 217. 1 1601. 4 1733. 6 2008 2001. 7 166. 2 1835. 5 1701. 8 No r t h 45. 9 99 45 43. 9 Lo s s e s & Lo s s Ex p e n s e s Ac q u i s i t i o n Ex p Ge n e r a l Ad m i n Ex p e n s e s To t a l Un d e r wr i t i n g Ex p e n s e s 2007 919. 8 313. 9 204. 8 1438. 5 2008 1119. 5 299. 3 208 1626. 8 No r t h 45. 9 46. 9 45 43. 9 Un d e r wr i t i n g I ncom e Ne t I nves t m ent I ncom e 2007 295. 1 299 2008 75 139. 2 No r t h 45. 9 46. 9 Op e r a t i n g I ncom e Be f o r e Ta x I ncom e Be f o r e Ta x I ncom e Af t e r Ta x Re t a i n e d I ncom e 2007 567 574 489 408. 2 2008 196. 3 140. 4 104 26. 1 No r t h 45. 9 46. 9 45 43. 9 Un d e r wr i t i n g Re v e n u e s Un d e r wr i t i n g Ex p e n s e s I ncom e Co n t r i b u t i o n Ap p e n d i x