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by W.A.B. Janith ( SC/2007/6624 )

A Statistical thesis submitted to the Science faculty of Ruhuna University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

Bachelor of Science

Department of mathematics University of Ruhuna October 2010


I take this opportunity to express my profound sense of gratitude and respect to all those who helped me throughout the duration of this report. I express my sincere

gratitude and thankfulness towards Prof. L.A.L.W.Jayasekara, Senior Lecturer in Mathematics, University of Ruhuna for spent his valuable time for this lecture period. As well as I offer my sincere thanks and sense of gratitude to Mr. B.G.S.A.Pradeep Department of Mathematics, University of Ruhuna, who conducted SQC lecturer series so our Quality control knowledge was improved I am grateful to all our friends for providing critical feedback & support whenever required.

W.A.B. Janith SC/2007/6624 University of ruhuna

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1. Introduction statistical quality control....03 2. Useful Statistical distributions .04 2.1. Important continues distribution.04 2.2. Important discrete distribution 09 3. Statistical quality control method ..13 3.1. Control Charts For Variables.13 3.2. Control Charts For attributes ..20 3.3. Six Sigma Quality..25 4. Sampling techniques...25 5. Discussion 28

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Introduction statistical quality control

This is a modern definition of quality

Statistical Quality Control is a method by which companies gather and analyze data on the variations which occur during production in order to determine if adjustments are needed (Ebert & Griffin, 2005, p. 214). One of the most common methods used in order to achieve this goal is the quality control chart. The charts are used to provide a visual graphic display of instances when a process is beginning to go out of control. The purpose of the chart is to indicate this trend in order that the system may be brought back into control. Statistica1 quality control (SQC) is the term used to describe the set of statistical tools used by quality professionals. Statistical quality control can be divided into three broad categories: 1. Descriptive statistics are used to describe quality characteristics and relationships. Included are statistics such as the mean, standard deviation, the range, and a measure of the distribution of data. 2. Statistical process control (SPC) involves inspecting a random sample of the output from a process and deciding whether the process is producing products with characteristics that fall within a predetermined range. SPC answers the question of whether the process is functioning properly or not. 3. Acceptance sampling is the process of randomly inspecting a sample of goods and deciding whether to accept the entire lot based on the results. Acceptance sampling determines whether a batch of goods should be accepted or rejected. Every product possesses a number of elements that jointly describe what the user or consumer thinks of as quality. These parameters are often called quality characteristics. Sometimes these are called critical to quality (CTQ) characteristics. Quality characteristics may be of several types; 1. Physical: length, weight, voltage, viscosity 2. Sensory: taste, appearance, color 3. Time Orientation: reliability, durability, serviceability Since variability can only be described in statically terms, Statistical methods play a central role in quality improvement efforts. In the application of statical methods to quality engineering, it is fairly typical to classify data on quality characteristics as either attributes or variables data are usually continuous measurements. Such as length, voltage, or
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viscosity. Attributes data, on the other hand, are usually discrete data, often taking the form of counts. We will describe statistical-based quality control tools for dealing with both types of data.

Useful Statistical distributions

A probability distribution is a mathematical model that relates the value of the variable with the probability of occurrence of that value in the population. In other words, we might visualize layer thickness as a random variable, because it take on different values in the population according to same random mechanism, and then the probability distribution of layer thickness describes the probability of occurrence of any value of layer thickness in the population. There are two types of probability distributions.

Important continues distribution

The Normal Distribution

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Central Limit theorem

Practical interpretation the sum of independent random variables is approximately normally distributed regardless of the distribution of each individual random variable in the sum

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The Lognormal Distribution

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The Exponential Distribution

The Gamma Distribution

When r is an integer, the gamma distribution is the result of summing r independently and is identically exponential random variables each with parameter

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The Weibull Distribution

When = 1, the Weibull distribution reduces to the exponential distribution

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Important discrete distribution

The Hypergeometric Distribution

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The Binomial Distribution Basis is in Bernoulli trials

The random variable x is the number of successes out of n Bernoulli trials with constant probability of success p on each trial
The Poisson distribution

Frequently used as a model for count data

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The Pascal Distribution

The random variable x is the number of Bernoulli trials upon which the rth success occurs And the geometric distribution has many useful applications in SQC

probability plots
Determining if a sample of data might reasonably be assumed to come from a specific distribution Probability plots are available for various distributions Easy to construct with computer software (MINITAB) Subjective interpretation

Normal probability plots

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Other Probability Plots

What is a reasonable choice as a probability model for these data? So we can chose convenient probability model using probability plot

Minimum Goodness of Fit is 0.724 so lognormal base e probability is a convenient model.

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Statistical quality control method

Statistical quality control methods extend the use of descriptive statistics to monitor the quality of the product and process. As we have learned so far, there are common and assignable causes of variation in the production of every product. Using statistical process control we want to determine the amount of variation that is common or normal. Then we monitor the production process to make sure production stays within this normal range. That is, we want to make sure the process is in a state of control. The most commonly used tool for monitoring the production process is a control chart. Different types of control charts are used to monitor different aspects of the production process. In this section I will try to explain how to use control charts. Control chart The foundation for SQC (Statistical quality control) was laid by Dr. Walter Shewart working in the Bell Telephone Laboratories in the 1920s conducting research on methods to improve quality and lower costs. He developed the concept of control with regard to variation, and came up with SQC Charts which provide a simple way to determine if the process is in control or not. Dr. W. Edwards Deming built upon Shewarts work and took the concepts to Japan WWII. There, Japanese industry adopted the concepts whole-heartedly. The resulting high quality of Japanese products is world renowned. Dr. Deming is famous throughout Japan as a "God of quality". Today, SQC is used in manufacturing facilities around the world. SQC is rapidly becoming required in Healthcare and other service industries as well.
Shewhart [1931, p.6] defined control by saying:

a phenomenon will be said to be controlled when, through the use of past experience, we can predict, at least within limits, how the phenomenon may be expected to vary in the future. Here it is understood that prediction within limits means that we can state, at least approximately, the probability that the observed phenomenon will fall within the given limits.

Control charts show the variance of the output of a process over time, such as the time it takes for a patient to see a doctor in the immediate care facility. Control charts compare this variance against upper and lower control limits to see if it fits within the expected, specific, predictable and normal variation levels.


Control charts for variables monitor characteristics that can be measured and have a continuous scale, such as height, weight, volume, or width. When an item is inspected, the variable being monitored is measured and recorded. For example, if we were producing candles, height might be an important variable. We could take samples of candles and measure their heights. Two of the most commonly used control charts for variables monitor both the central tendency of the data (the mean) and the variability of the data (either the standard deviation or the range). Note that each chart monitors a different type of information. When observed values go outside the control limits, the process is assumed not to be in control. Production is stopped, and employees attempt to identify the cause of the problem and correct it. Next we look at how these charts are created
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Mean (x-Bar) Charts Subgroup Data with Unknown and

A mean control chart is often referred to as an x-bar chart. It is used to monitor changes in the mean of a process. To construct a mean chart we first need to construct the center line of the chart. To do this we take multiple samples and compute their means. Usually these samples are small, with about four or five observations. Each sample has its own mean, . The center line of the chart is then computed as the mean of all sample means, where the number of samples is:

To construct the upper and lower control limits of the chart, we use the following
Formulas: UCL= Center line = LCL=

If we use

as an estimator of and

as an estimator of , then the parameters of the Center line =

chat are

if we define

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The constant

is tabulated for various sample size in following table A

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20



D4 3.27 2.57 2.28 2.11 2.00 1.92 1.86 1.82 1.78 1.74 1.72 1.69 1.67 1.65 1.64 1.62 1.61 1.60 1.59

1.02 0.73 0.58 0.48 0.42 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.18

0 0 0 0 0.08 0.14 0.18 0.22 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41

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Example : Maliban

Real value may be different because numerical method when run there is rounded but when we calculate we may be not rounded.

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Range (R) Charts

Range (R) charts are another type of control chart for variables. Whereas x-bar charts measure shift in the central tendency of the process, range charts monitor the dispersion or variability of the process. The method for developing and using R-charts is the same as that for x-bar charts. The center line of the control chart is the average range, and the upper and lower control limits are computed as follows:

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In the R chart, the center line will be . To determine the control limits, we need an estimate of . Assuming that the quality characteristic is normally distributed. can be found from the distribution of the relative range W=R/. The standard deviation of W, say , is a known function of n, Thus, Since

the stranded deviation of R is Since is unknown, we may estimate by

Above Equations reduces to equation

Considering Above example of maliban wafers product process

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Control charts for attributes are used to measure quality characteristics that are counted rather than measured. Attributes are discrete in nature and entail simple yes-orno decisions. For example, this could be the number of nonfunctioning light bulbs, the proportion of broken eggs in a carton, the number of rotten apples, the number of scratches on a tile, or the number of complaints issued. Two of the most common types of control charts for attributes are p-charts and c-charts. P-charts are used to measure the proportion of items in a sample that are defective. Examples are the proportion of broken cookies in a batch and the proportion of cars produced with a misaligned fender. P-charts are appropriate when both the number of defectives measured and the size of the total sample can be counted. A proportion can then be computed and used as the statistic of measurement. C-charts count the actual number of defects. For example, we can count the number of complaints from customers in a month, the number of bacteria on a Petri dish, or the number of barnacles on the bottom of a boat. However, we cannot compute the proportion of complaints from customers, the proportion of bacteria on a Petri dish, or the proportion of barnacles on the bottom of a boat. Control Chart for Fraction Nonconforming-P charts

If p is not known, we estimate it from samples. M: samples, each with n units (or observations ) Di: number of nonconforming units in sample i

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Average of all observations

Example Data of p chart coca cola cans

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C-charts are used to monitor the number of defects per unit. Examples are the number of returned meals in a restaurant, the number of trucks that exceed their weight limit in a month, the number of discolorations on a square foot of carpet, and the number of bacteria in a milliliter of water. Note that the types of units of measurement we are considering are a period of time, a surface area, or a volume of liquid. The average number of defects, is the center line of the control chart. The upper and lower control limits are computed as follows:

Example : The number of weekly customer complaints is monitored at a large hotel using a c-chart. Complaints have been recorded over the past twenty weeks. Develop three-sigma control limits using the following data:

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Source: Kangaroo Cabs service in sri lanka

weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

No. of Complaints

3 2 3 1 3 3 2 1 3 1 3 4 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 3

The average number of complaints per week is= Therefore

As in the previous example, the LCL is negative and should be rounded up to zero. Following is the control chart for this example:

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Six Sigma Quality

Six Sigma is a business management strategy originally developed by Motorola, USA in 1981. As of 2010, it enjoys widespread application in many sectors of industry, although its application is not without controversy. Six Sigma seeks to improve the quality of process outputs by identifying and removing the causes of defects (errors) and minimizing variability in manufacturing and business processes. It uses a set of quality management methods, including statistical methods, and creates a special infrastructure of people within the organization ("Black Belts", "Green Belts", etc.) who are experts in these methods. Each Six Sigma project carried out within an organization follows a defined sequence of steps and has quantified financial targets (cost reduction or profit increase). The term six sigma originated from terminology associated with manufacturing, specifically terms associated with statistical modelling of manufacturing processes. The maturity of a manufacturing process can be described by a sigma rating indicating its yield, or the percentage of defect-free products it creates. A six-sigma process is one in which 99.99966% of the products manufactured are statistically expected to be free of defects (3.4 defects per million). Motorola set a goal of "six sigmas" for all of its manufacturing operations, and this goal became a byword for the management and engineering practices used to achieve it.

Six Sigma projects follow two project methodologies inspired by Deming's Plan-Do-Check-Act Cycle. These methodologies, composed of five phases each, bear the acronyms DMAIC and DMADV. DMAIC is used for projects aimed at improving an existing business process. DMAIC is pronounced as "duh-may-ick". DMADV is used for projects aimed at creating new product or process designs. DMADV is pronounced as "duh-mad-vee".

Origin and meaning of the term "six sigma process"

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The term "six sigma process" comes from the notion that if one has six standard deviations between the process mean and the nearest specification limit, as shown in the graph, practically no items will fail to meet specifications. This is based on the calculation method employed in process capability studies. Capability studies measure the number of standard deviations between the process mean and the nearest specification limit in sigma units. As process standard deviation goes up, or the mean of the process moves away from the center of the tolerance, fewer standard deviations will fit between the mean and the nearest specification limit, decreasing the sigma number and increasing the likelihood of items outside specification.
From Wikipedia

Sampling techniques
Acceptance Sampling:
Inspection provides a means for monitoring quality. For example, inspection may be performed on incoming raw material, to decide whether to keep it or return it to the vendor if the quality level is not what was agreed on. Similarly, inspection can also be done on finished goods before deciding whether to make the shipment to the customer or not. However, performing 100% inspection is generally not economical or practical, therefore, sampling is used instead. Acceptance Sampling is therefore a method used to make a decision as to whether to accept or to reject lots based on inspection of sample(s). The objective is not to control or estimate the quality of lots, only to pass a judgment on lots. Using sampling rather than 100% inspection of the lots brings some risks both to the consumer and to the producer, which are called the consumer's and the producer's risks, respectively. We encounter making decisions on sampling in our daily affairs.


statistical inference is made on the quality of the lot by inspecting only the small sample drawn from the lot
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There are several Acceptance Sampling Plans: - Single Sampling (Inference made on the basis of only one sample) - Double Sampling (Inference made on the basis of one or two samples) - Sequential Sampling (Additional samples are drawn until an inference can be made) etc.

Single Sampling Plans A Single Sampling plan is characterized by n (the sample size) which is drawn from the lot and inspected for defects. The number of defects (d) found are checked against c (the acceptance number) and the procedure works as follows (clearly, d = 0, 1, 2, n):

Example: Suppose n=100 and c=3, which means that if the number of defectives in the sample (d) is equal to 0, 1, 2, or 3, then the lot will be accepted, and if d is 4 or more, then the lot will be rejected. As mentioned earlier, inherent in a sampling plan are producers and consumers risk. These risks can be depicted by the following table:

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Formally, these risks are written as: a: b: The producer's risk, is the probability that a lot with AQL will be rejected. The consumer's risk, is the probability that a lot with LTPD will be accepted.

where Acceptable Quality Level (AQL) = The quality level acceptable to the consumer Lot Tolerance Percent Defective (LTPD) = The level of "poor' quality that the consumer is willing to tolerate only a small percentage of the time. In general, both the producer and the consumer want to minimize their risks. The choice of a well designed sampling plan can help both the producer and the consumer maintain their respective risks at acceptable levels to both. For example, a = 5% for AQL of 0.02 and b = 10% for LTPD of 0.08.

Double Sampling Double sampling (also called two-phase sampling - not to be confused with twostage sampling above) involves estimating two correlated variables. This method would be used in cases where the primary variable of interest is expensive or difficult to measure, but a secondary covariate is easily measurable. A small number of sample units are randomly selected and both variables are measured at these locations. The secondary variable only is then measured at a larger number of randomly selected points. The success of a double-sampling sample design depends on how well correlated the primary and secondary variables are. Double-sampling is commonly used in estimation of above-ground biomass in rangelands. Clipping and weighting of vegetation is expensive and tedious. With the double-sampling method, ocular estimates of biomass are made for a small number of quadrats, and the vegetation on those quadrats is then clipped and weighed. For the remaining quadrats, only the ocular estimates are performed. Advantages of double sampling are: it can be much more efficient than directly sampling the primary variable if the secondary variable can be measured quickly and it highly correlated with the primary variable. Disadvantages of double sampling are: the formulas for data analysis and sample size estimation are much more complex than for some other methods.

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Types of Charts Available For The Data Gathered Variable Data Charts Individual, Average and Range Charts Variable data requires the use of variable charts. Variable charts are easy to understand and use.

Attribute Data Charts

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References :

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